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Pendulum: My Early Permutations on 2023 Presidential Election

Published

2 years ago

August 27, 2022

Eric

By Dele Momodu

Fellow Nigerians, let me make a few clarifications before going into the nitty-gritty of this epistle.

Today, I’m wearing two caps on this page. I’m a journalist as well as a politician. I have been both for decades, although I remain pre-eminently a journalist. Also, I have been a non-partisan politician for a long time until recently. Even then I have seen it fit to support candidates from the two mainstream political parties depending on the capacity and performance of the ruling government party. Since this is my column, it is expected that it will reflect my personal opinion and not that of any other person. This has always been the case although my opinion may sometimes be shaped by not only the voracious reading culture that I have made the mainstay of my career as a journalist but also the wide consultations and interactions that I continue to have both as a journalist and politician. And opinions can oftentimes be subjective, although I try to be as objective and fair as possible. I am aware that even objectivity and fairness can be relative, but they are standards one must strive to attain, maintain and exist by in life. Equally importantly, I am also brutally frank and open to self-criticism at all times.

Going on to my early permutations for the 2023 Presidential race, let me state categorically that I have at least six good friends in the race, namely, Mr Abdul-Lateef Kolawole Abiola, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Mr Omoyele Sowore, Mr Peter Obi and Alhaji Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. All six of them are eminently qualified to lead our country Nigeria. They all have distinctive personal characteristics and attributes which enable each of them to be individually considered strong candidates for the position of President. However, each of them cannot be considered in isolation. They must be looked at from the viewpoint of Party, background and relationships. I must therefore establish some methodology for my assessment of what would determine the ultimate winner of the 2023 Presidential contest.

In present day Nigerian Presidential elections, there are certain major factors at play. These factors have become majorly important given the prevailing circumstances in the country particularly those of agitations for restructuring and secession, insecurity, failed economy and poverty, gross unemployment, infrastructure deficit and decay, educational maladministration and maladjustment and parlous health services. These major factors include the following:

One. There were usually two mainstream political parties. In 2023, they will be APC and PDP. A third force is still warming up as a major challenger, especially in the Southern regions. It is not yet known how much power it can garner and galvanise in the coming months. That is the Labour Party. In all honesty, that is as far as my third eye can see for now. I apologise therefore to my three other friends in what I call fringe parties, namely, Kola Abiola, Rabiu Kwankwaso and Omoyele Sowore. Kwankwaso has a chance of doing much better than the other two because of his popularity in the massive electoral cauldron that is Kano State. He also has some following in the North, but I still do not see him making such an inroad as to garner more than 3-5% of the total votes cast.

Two. Ethnicity, or what is called the race factor in the United States of America, will play a major part in 2023. A lot of Nigerians have seen the ethnic factor play out by a division of the country into three large parts, the monolithic North, the South West Edo and Delta States, and an amalgam of the other South South States and the South East States. On my part I do not see a monolithic North as well. The Middle Belt including Kwara and Kogi States have been much maligned and marginalised in this respect. Yet they have their own strong force and voice. I will break down its beneficiaries in the next few paragraphs.

Three. Religion will play a significant role in 2023. We have already seen how this has become a major thorny issue due to APC’s decision to present a Moslem/Moslem ticket. It is also frontloaded as a major factor because of the prevailing distrust and insecurity that is all pervading in the country. This used to be largely a Northern thing with grave vicious violence being unleashed upon one another by Moslems and Christians alike. However, this distrust, and insecurity, has spilled over into the South and is part of the reasons why agitations for restructuring and self-determination have risen to a crescendo.

Four. Money. This has always been a major player in determining who succeeds to the Presidency of the country. The ruling Party has always had an advantage in this area. For starters, as of June 2021 there were almost 180,000 polling units in Nigeria. It is not unusual for additional polling booths to be created a few days to the election. What is constant is that every serious political party has to have at least one agent at each polling unit and these polling agents need to be adequately remunerated and provided with all necessary logistic material to ensure effective and efficient return as a party polling agent. To man all these Polling stations will need at over N20 billion by my reckoning and that is being on the cheap side. Loads of cash will therefore be needed by all of the contestants.

Five. The Buhari factor. The Federal Government is too powerful as it controls INEC, Police, Army other security agencies, even the Central Bank and so on, to a large extent. This is a major tool for any government which is unwilling to give up the stranglehold it has on power, particularly when it realises that the populace is thoroughly dissatisfied with its performance.

Let me now take you on a tour de force of what you should expect to see next year.

From my crystal ball, I can foresee a straight fight between APC and PDP candidates. In this round one, APC candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu seems to be at an advantage. His party is currently in power and controls all the appurtenances of government. Nevertheless, the strength of APC is also its main weakness. After eight years of monumental failure in office, it has lost most of the attraction that brought it to power in 2015. Its victory in the 2019 Presidential elections is still controversial till this day. Nigerians may wish to punish APC for its terrible performance which has not only seen them more impoverished but also more insecure and afraid for their very lives. Tinubu’s case is worsened by the fact that he has a dilemma in being unwilling to distance himself from this government’s policies which have failed the people so woefully because of the fact that this will be seen as wilting criticism of the Buhari administration. The withdrawal of the support of Buhari apparently still sends shivers down the Tinubu camp.

On the issue of ethnicity, this may be the major clincher in the race. There are two Southern contenders in the Presidential election. The major Southerner is the former Lagos State Governor Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and to a lesser degree, the other Southerner is former Anambra State Governor, Mr Peter Obi. My brothers and friends, Kola Abiola, and Omoyele Sowore, both Southerners as well, have little say in this battle royale which the 2023 Presidential election portends. The principal challenger for Tinubu and Obi will be former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. In the South East, I believe that the Igbos are likely to back their son, Obi and the Labour Party for the most part. Obi’s Anambra State is a hybrid State presently controlled by APGA. The State does not have a serious Presidential candidate contender. It is noteworthy, that the South East has traditionally been a veritable stomping ground for the PDP. The Party presently controls Enugu and Abia States. This is not likely to change too much, and the PDP may win or come a close second to the Labour Party. Notwithstanding the fact that APC has made some inroads into the South East by virtue of the fact that it controls two States, Imo and Ebonyi, one of which it does by virtue of the defection of the Governor, I still feel that it will come a distant third. My opinion is that the Labour Party is likely to take the lead with about 45 to 50 percent of the total votes cast in the South East because of the Obi factor, even though it presently has no showing in that region at the moment. Atiku will follow with about 30-35 percent and Tinubu 15-20 percent.

In the South South, Atiku will take the chunk of votes because these have always been predominantly PDP States, although in some States like Rivers, Delta and Edo, the crisis in the Party may cause the PDP to lose votes some of its normal votes, if not quickly resolved. Similarly, the defection of Governor Ayade of Cross River State may also cause the PDP’s margin of victory in the Zone to shrink, especially in Cross River State. My belief is that the Zone is guaranteed for Atiku because his Vice-Presidential candidate, Dr Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State, comes from this zone. There are usually huge votes from here, although these were emasculated in 2019. PDP is likely to record up to 60 percent in most parts, if Governors Nyesom Wike, Ifeanyi Okowa, Udom Emmanuel, Douyi Diri, Godwin Obaseki and other party loyalists give their all. If the Party’s crisis in the zone is allowed to fester and worsen, the PDP may get no more than 50%. The rest will be split between APC and Labour with APC taken between 20 and 30% depending on how the PDP intra Party mess develops.

The South West will be extremely dramatic, and the results may be very shocking. APC controls four States here, Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and Ondo and PDP, two States, Oyo and Osun.
While Tinubu will definitely win Lagos, his margin of victory may be reduced by the popularity of both Obi and the mass grassroots mobilisation of the PDP Gubernatorial candidate, Mr Olajide Adediran, aka Jandor. This is the only State in the South West that may feature three strong contenders. The Igbo population in Lagos and the EndSars Movement will favour Peter Obi more than it will favour Atiku. The other South West States will witness a tough battle between Asiwaju and Atiku with Tinubu holding the sway because he is a Yoruba man.

Now, let’s move to North Central and start with Kwara and Kogi States. The Saraki factor will help PDP in Kwara. The former Senate President has obviously regained his bounce especially because of the perceived frugality of the incumbent governor, Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq. This may give Atiku a major edge over Tinubu here. Kogi may be tougher to win for Atiku because of the young Governor, Yahaya Bello, an APC stalwart, but the two parties will run almost neck and neck. Obi is unlikely to feature significantly in these two States. Plateau State is an APC State but with the Muslim/Muslim brouhaha, APC will face an uphill task because this is a major Christian State in the North. PDP is in charge in Benue and again the Muslim/Muslim ticket of APC is highly contentious here and will swing even more votes to PDP. I feel that most of the Northern Christians may support Atiku for having a more balanced ticket. Though I understand that some people in these parts of the North Central are tempted to consider Peter Obi, but their leaders are reaching out to them and telling them not to waste their votes. Niger and Nasarawa are presently controlled by APC Governors. Obi will not feature in these States. It will therefore be a straight fight between Atiku and Tinubu, with Tinubu winning more than 60% of the votes in Niger State and no more than 55% of the votes in Nasarawa State based on the incumbency of the APC Governors countered by the Atiku factor.

The North East will be very interesting. Many pundits are wondering why Tinubu chose a Kanuri man, Kashim Shettima, from Borno State, as running mate and not someone from the largest voting zone in the North West. Well, as an experienced politician, he probably knows what we don’t know. The PDP candidate, Atiku Abubakar, is a Fulani man from Adamawa, a North Eastern State. The North East has not produced a Nigerian President in a long time and the crave for one favours Atiku sentimentally. I know Atiku will do much better than he did in 2019 because the Buhari factor is absent. And in any event Buhari has performed abysmally. This may spread to Bauchi, a major PDP State, as well as Taraba State which is also a PDP State. I believe that there will be some swing towards Atiku in Yobe State although the State is a prominent APC State now and Shettima’s Kanuri influence will help the APC ticket here. The race will be hotly contested but the result will still be a victory for Tinubu though the margin will be slimmer when contrasted with the massive victory for Buhari and APC in 2019.

The king of voting in Presidential elections remains the North West which is the largest voting bloc in Nigeria. It is almost impossible to become President of Nigeria without winning big in this region. The State of Kano takes the cake in this respect. Kano State alone could close almost any margin that a Presidential candidate is bringing from other Zones. Despite being an APC State with a strong Governor in Umar Ganduje, Atiku Abubakar may likely lead others, namely Tinubu and Kwankwaso, because of his Fulani lineage and heritage. Blood, they say is thicker than water. Having said that Kano is predominantly a Hausa and not Fulani State and this should augur well for Tinubu. What is clear is that Tinubu definitely needs Kano, like a million dollars lifeline, to borrow that popular proverbial cliche. To this end he has worked assiduously to build bridges in this State and other North West States. This is one of the primary reasons that he won the APC Presidential Primaries, and he still count on the people of Kano to vote for him against the Fulani, Atiku Abubakar. In fact, the three Ks of Kano, Kaduna and Katsina are absolutely needed for victory by any Presidential candidate. Kaduna is a bit tricky because of its preponderance of Christian population, but Nasir El-Rufai is a strong no-nonsense APC stalwart who will want to deliver massively for his Party. Sokoto, is a major PDP State and Tambuwal has shown deep loyalty to Abubakar and his cause. Atiku will win easily here. Zamfara and Kebbi States are under the control of APC, but Atiku’s cultural affinity may give him some edge in these two States but maybe not too much as to give him overall victory, which still seems likely to go to APC in these two States, if the 2019 results provide some indication although again, the Buhari factor will reduce APC votes here as in other core Northern States as he is not on the ballot….

I will be back with more updates in the coming months…

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Mike Adenuga is Alive, Hale and Hearty, I Just Spoke with Him – Dele Momodu

Published

1 day ago

November 20, 2024

Eric

By Eric Elezuo

Africa’s biggest philanthropist and Chairman, Globacom Group, Dr. Mike Adenuga is Alive, hale and hearty!

This has been confirmed by Chairman, Ovation Media Group, Chief Dele Momodu via his social media handles.

Following rumours, whose source is yet to be ascertained that the man, known for his quantum giving, passed away, Momodu wrote that he had just spoken with the billionaire businessman, who affirmed his health while thanking all for their concern.

“Ignore the fake news…DR MICHAEL ADENIYI AGBOLADE ISOLA ADENUGA is hale and hearty. He is right now at his desk working round the clock in support of the Nigerian economy…He just called me to thank everyone for their concern,” Dele Momodu wrote.

In addition, members of the top echelon of the group have separately confirmed that the one known as The Bull is alive and healthy.

Dr. Adenuga has remained in the forefront of many families happy with his direct financial and material gifts as well as consistent promo from his Glo brand.

Only last night, CNN celebrated 15 years of his sponsorship of the African Voices Changemakers, where he has foe a decade and half been supporting budding African entertainers to reach their professional zenith.

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A Tale of Two Emirs of Kano: Who Blinks First?

Published

3 days ago

November 18, 2024

Eric

By Eric Elezuo

The uneasy calm that reared its ugly head in the ancient city of Kano since May 23, 2024, when Governor Yusuf Kabir sacked the sitting Emir, Aminu Ado Bayero, replacing him with Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, also known as Muhammadu Sanusi II, has yet to abate as the two prominent personalities have consistently laid claim to the emirship of the emirate, and operating from different palaces in the town.

The bitter rivalry between the two royalties has caused division not only in the emirate, but the entire Kano State, and spiraling into national politics, leaving the political parties, especially the New Nigerian Peoples Party, which is the governor’s party, the Presidency, alleged to be giving backing to the immediate past governor, Umar Ganduje, who is also the National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress (APC), and the security agencies, who receive instructions from the Presidency, taking sides.

Sanusi Lamido Sanusi also known as Muhammadu Sanusi II and Aminu Ado Bayero are the parties embroiled in the bitter rivalry in a bid to outwit each other for the exalted Emir of Kano position. This was since Sanusi was reinstated as the 16th Emir, having been dethroned and exiled on March 9, 2020 by the former administration of Abdullahi Umar Ganduje.

Sources close the two notable figures, and the palace told The Boss that it is not unlikely that both men are being supported by powerful entities.

“While Sanusi has the backing of the Kano State government as visibly manifested in the reinstatement process, Ado Bayero is being backed by the Federal Government of Nigeria,” one of the sources said.

The furore has consequently attracted the wrong commentaries from stakeholders within and outside the Kano Emirate, resulting in heated arguments, threats and possibly outbreak of direct and indirect confrontations. But six months into the leadership quagmire, none of the two has shifted ground, or is willing to shift ground as more and more intrigues of power play and desire for recognition continue to be the order of the day.

The ‘two emirs’, who continue to claim legitimacy, have variously been trying to outdo each other in the quest to be relevant in the scheme of things.

The rivalry between the two emirs and their loyalists has resuscitated with weddings and counter weddings.

Just this weekend, a former governor of Kano State, Alhaji Rabiu Kwnakwaso hosted the wedding of his daughter, Dr. Aisha Rabiu Kwankwaso, and her husband, Fahad Dahiru Mangal, at the palace of Emir Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, which attracted prominent national citizens including former President Olusegun Obasanjo and Vice President Kashim Shettima, Waziri Adamawa Atiku Abubakar among others. Fahad is the son of Nigerian business magnate, Dahiru Mangal, founder of MaxAir, one of the country’s leading private airlines.

In what looked like a counter affair, the palace of Aminu Ado Bayero, in Nasarawa Local Government Area of the state, will on December 13, 2024 hosts a double wedding involving Jibrin Barau Jibrin and Aisha Barau Jibrin, the children of the Senate Deputy President, Barau I. Jibrin, to their spouses.

Some stakeholders told The Boss that the whole thing is a case of seeking relevance and originality.

Meanwhile, former Governor Kwankwaso has blamed President Bola Tinubu for the crises that have failed to abate in the state.

While speaking at the convocation ceremony of Skyline University in Kano on Sunday, Kwankwaso accused Tinubu and the political forces from Lagos of attempting to impose their influence on Kano’s leadership, particularly in the selection of the Emir.

“Today, we can see very clearly that there are significant efforts from the Lagos axis to colonise this part of the country. Lagos wouldn’t allow us to choose even our Emir; instead, they want to impose their own Emir on Kano,” he stated.

HOW IT ALL BEGAN…

The Kano State House of Assembly, as widely speculated, repealed the 2019 Law, which was instrumental in removing Sanusi from office, and balkanise the Kano emirate into five jurisdictions.

The Assembly, in the new emirate law stipulated the sack of all the Emirs in the jurisdictions and a restoration of the old order, where only one Emir will be overseeing all of Kano.

As a result, the Governor of Kano State, Abba Yusuf, appended his signature on the bill, giving it the backing of the law, in the presence of the deputy governor, Aminu Abdulsalam, Speaker, Isma’il Falgore, and the SSG, Abdullahi Bichi. and thereafter, proceeded to sacking the emirs with a 48 hours ultimatum to vacate their palaces.

While the Emirs of Bichi, Rano, Karaye, and Gaya complied with the directive, the Emir of Kano, Aminu Ado Bayero, had gone to court to stop the process.

Both by native ordinance and law, every dethroned Emir is banished or expected to leave Kano for good. Recall that in 1965 when Muhammadu I, Sanusi’s grandfather resigned, having got wind of his possible dethronement, he abdicated to Bauchi, and never returned to Kano.

It was therefore, a surprise that on Saturday, Bayero, who was dethroned, returned to the city of Kano, and moved into a palace in Nasarawa LGA of the state; a move that proved that he has not relinquished power. While Sanusi is operating in the main palace, Bayero is operating from the Nasarawa Palace, creating two full blown emirs for one throne.

The Boss learnt that a squad of soldiers that had been protecting Bayero before he was dethroned, rode with him from the airport to the palace. The same report has it that the National Security Adviser (NSA), Nuhu Ribadu, has been behind Bayero’s moves, especially his flight and residency in the city. The NSA denied the allegation, threatening legal action againat the deputy governor, who made the claim.

Responding after the deposed monarch arrived in Kano to a hero’s welcome from a horde of his supporters, the Deputy Governor of the state, Aminu Gwarzo, blamed Ribadu, for allegedly facilitating the return of Bayero to the palace by providing him with two private jets.

Ribadu, in a letter by his legal team, Aliyu & Musa Chambers, said that Gwarzo should retract his claim, tender apology, or face legal action.

The letter reads: “The attention of our client was drawn to a video clip being shared on different social media platforms wherein you granted an interview at Emir’s Palace in Kano on Saturday, the 25th day of May 2024, in a very calm atmosphere, and without any provocation whatsoever, falsely accusing our client of using his office to kill the people of Kano State and maim their properties.

“In the clip, you were shown to be speaking in Hausa.

“Your false accusations against our client portraying his office as an appendage of a political party and a willing tool to cause chaos in Kano is false and done to damage the hard-earned reputation of our client in the eyes of the right-thinking members of the society and indeed it has succeeded in doing so.

“In all the places he has served, our client has never been accused of any wrongdoing.

“Given this illustrious background, it is inconceivable that someone would harbour the thought that our client would descend his exalted office so low as to interfere in the local tussle of the Kano Emirate.

“The wide coverage you gave your interview has caused serious embarrassment to our client and his family.

“Since the publication, our client has been receiving a barrage of telephone calls both within and outside Nigeria from friends and associates who felt disappointed in him because of the false allegation owing to the fact that it came from a person occupying the office of Deputy Governor of Kano State.

“Our client and his office take your allegations seriously and by this letter, our client is demanding that you provide irrefutable evidence to substantiate your claims.

The return of Bayero consequently prompted the governor to order his arrest.

In a counter, a federal high court in Kano ordered the state government not to enforce the Emirate Council Repeal Law 2024, and desist from from issuing Sanusi appointment letter.

STAND OF SECURITY OPERATIVES

The Kano State Police Command refused to arrest Bayero, saying he would only enforce the court order restraining the state government from dissolving five newly created Emirates in the state, and restatement of Sanusi.

The state Commissioner of Police, Muhammad Hussain Gumel, while making a broadcast, flanked by representatives of other security agencies, vowed to maintain law and order, assuring that security agencies won’t spare anyone trying to temper the peace across the state.

He said: “Let me also remind you that the position of the law is very clear as whoever, under whatever guise is found to be planning to disrupt the peace being enjoyed in the State or feel that he or she can jeopardize the existing security settings in the State will be arrested and made to face the full wrath of the law.

“Therefore, as the Police Command is leading other security agencies to sustain the peace and peaceful coexistence for overriding interests, miscreants should steer clear of violence in all its ramifications and should not take advantage or hijack the current situation to launch an unprovoked attack on people, property and infrastructure of the State. Any person found with such a tendency will be ruthlessly dealt with according to the law of the land

“The combined security agencies in the State have set out all machinery in place to ensure no breakdown of law and order as the safety and security of all the inhabitants in the State remain sacrosanct,” Gumel said.

NBA TAKES A STAND, URGES CAUTION

The Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) has called for caution in the legal fireworks playing out in Kano, stressing that it is deeply “deeply concerned about these developments in many ways”.

In a statement, NBA chairman in Kano, Sagir Gezawa, said it is the constitutional duty of a state assembly to legislate and once passed, it remains the prerogative of a governor to assent to such law.

“Once assented to by the governor, it has become a Law and its implementation is to be done by state apparatus and of course enforced by a competent court of law,” Gezawa said.

“It’s further within the purview of courts to interpret such law to be in tandem with other existing laws or the constitution.

“In doing so, we urge our members to act responsibly in approaching courts with competent jurisdiction.

“A court order, once given, is sacrosanct and must be obeyed.

“However, it must be noted that while the court has its own mechanism of enforcing its order, it’s not within the powers of the Nigerian Army to deploy troops to enforce court order. This is a sad reminder of the military dictatorship and must be condemned.

“Anyone found wanting or in disobedience of a court order (which is declaratory in nature) must first be proved to have been notified of the existence of the said court order by issuance of Form 48 and subsequently Form 49 notifying such person of the consequences of his or her actions.

“This is in line with the Sheriff and Civil Processes Act and Laws of the various States for enforcing court judgments.

“Engaging security apparatus without the officers of the Deputy Sherriff’s Department of the relevant court that made the order may appear to be self-help which must also be condemned.

“As an association therefore, we call on all state actors, to be mindful of their oaths of office and for the security agencies, their scope of duties so as not to make mockery of our judicial system.”

The NBA said the actions of the state actors “may breach the security and peace” in Kano and “they shall be held accountable in this life or the next,” the statement said.

But some notable personalities including former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar has blamed the Bola Tinubu-led federal government for being behind the crisis in Kano.

Atiku made accusation via a statement by his spokesperson, Mr. Paul Ibe on Saturday.

“The action of the Federal Government in deploying soldiers in Kano in the tussle over the throne of the ancient city is an upset to the peace and security of the state, and also in breach of the 1999 Constitution as Amended.

“In performing their constitutional duties of law making, the Kano State House of Assembly (KSHA) passed the amended Kano State Emirate Council (Repeal) Bill 2024 in consonance with the provision of Section 4 of the Constitution 1999 as Amended whereas the Governor of Kano State, Engr. Abba Kabir Yusuf subsequently signed into law the said bill. The law therefore repealed the 2019 version which balkanized the ancient Kano Emirate into five.

“The foregoing circumstances happened within the confines of the law and in compliance with the powers conferred on the Governor as provided by Section 5(2) of the 1999 Constitution as amended; and also in consultation with the Kingmakers of Kano, reappointed Sanusi Lamido Sanusi (also known as Muhammadu Sanusi II) as the 16th Emir of Kano State and accordingly handed him a letter of appointment.
It is surprising that in the early hours of today, exactly at about 5:30 am the former Emir of Kano, His Majesty Aminu Ado Bayero backed by Federal might made their way into the Nasarawa Palace of the Kano Emirate while the reappointed Emir, Muhammadu Sanusi II was at the Gidan Dabo, which is the main residence of the Emir of Kano.

“In this wise, the former Emir could not have made his way into the Nasarawa Palace without the support of the Federal Government having done so with the support of the Army and other security personnel in his company. The deployment of soldiers in extra constitutional matters such as this undermines the integrity of the Nigerian military.

“We need to remind the Tinubu administration that Kano State is known for peace and harmony spanning thousands of years and any attempt to destablise the peace of the Land of Commerce shall be resisted. Recall that Muhammadu Sanusi II was dethroned on 9th March, 2020 dethroned, Kano forged on in peace without any fracas.

“We wish to state unequivocally that if for any reason, law and order breaks down in Kano State, particularly Kano Municipal, the Federal Government should be held responsible as the act of providing security cover to the former Emir, Aminu Ado Bayero to come back to Kano is an invitation to anarchy,” he said.

In the same vein, the Council of Ulamas, has President Bola Tinubu against plunging Kano into chaos. The group said, the crisis, if not well managed, could escalate and degenerate into chaos.

With the state backing the reinstatement of Sanusi, the path looks smooth for Muhammadu Sanusi II to repossess the emirship of Kano, but all will depend on how the politics of superiority is played in the coming days.

While Tinubu watches without lifting a finger of settlement, the ancient city of Kano, like Rivers State, is slowly burning down.

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How FG Spent N19bn on Presidential Planes in 15 Months – Report

Published

1 week ago

November 12, 2024

Eric

At least N19.43 billion has reportedly been spent on the maintenance and operations of the Presidential Air Fleet from July 2023 to September 2024.

According to GovSpend, a civic tech platform that tracks and analyses the Federal government’s spending, showed that for 2024, the payouts amounted to N13.55billion, representing 66 per cent of the allocations for the fleet in the 2024 fiscal year.

Most disbursements were labeled ‘Forex Transit Funds,’ typically funds allocated for foreign exchange requirements to facilitate international transactions and engagements.

In the context of the Presidential Air Fleet, such funds are used to cover expenses related to operations outside the country, including fuel purchases, maintenance or services in foreign currencies.

“When aircraft on the fleet are abroad, payments are often made in U.S. dollars or another foreign currency to ensure uninterrupted operations,” a government official explained.

In July 2023, N1.52bn was disbursed in two tranches of N846m and N675m for ‘Presidential air fleet forex transit funds.’

The following month, N3.1bn was disbursed in three tranches of N388m, N2bn, and N713m for the same item.

In November of that year, N1.26bn was released to the Presidential Air Fleet Naira transit account.

The first overhead for 2024 came in March, where N1.27bn were disbursed twice, amounting to N2.54bn. The transit account received N6.35bn in April, N4.97bn in May and N210m in July.

August saw the highest frequency of transactions, with N5.60bn released in six separate disbursements.

Although these transactions were not clearly labeled, the monies were paid into the Presidential Air Fleet naira transit account, including the N35m transfer made in September.

In late April, the transit account received N5.08bn; this came around the same time the President was on a two-nation tour to the Netherlands and Saudi Arabia.

Although Tinubu arrived in the Netherlands in a state-owned Gulfstream AeroSpace 550 Jet, the aircraft could not proceed to Saudi Arabia due to unspecified technical problems. He reportedly continued his journey on a chartered private plane.

At the time, the President’s Boeing 737 business jet was undergoing maintenance. It was later replaced with an Airbus A330 purchased for $100m in August through service-wide votes.

The nearly 15-year-old plane, an ACJ330-200, VP-CAC (MSN 1053), is “spacious and furnished with state-of-the-art avionics, customised interior and communications system,” Tinubu’s Special Adviser on Information and Strategy, Mr. Bayo Onanuga said, adding that it “will save Nigeria huge maintenance and fuel costs, running into millions of dollars yearly.”

The new Airbus A330 is just one of several aircraft currently on the Presidential Air Fleet, arguably one of Africa’s largest, with around 11 aircraft of various makes and models. Until August, it comprised the 19-year-old B737-700 and a 13-year-old Gulfstream Aerospace G550.

The BBJ was acquired during the tenure of former President Olusegun Obasanjo at $43m but became a money guzzler as it aged.

Onanuga, defending the purchase of Airbus A330, argued that the new Airbus 330 aircraft and the costs of maintaining the air fleet were not for the president but in the interest of Nigerians.

“It’s not President Tinubu’s plane; it belongs to the people of Nigeria, it is our property…the President did not buy a new jet; what he has is a refurbished jet – it has been used by somebody else before he got it, but it is a much newer model than the one President Buhari used.

“The one President Buhari used was bought by President Obasanjo some 20 years ago. There was a time when the President went to Saudi Arabia, and the plane developed some problems. The President had to leave the Netherlands with a chartered jet.

“Nigerians should try to prioritise the safety of the President. I’m not sure anybody wishes our president to go and crash in the air. We want his safety so that he can hand it over to whoever wants to take over from him,” Onanuga said.

The presidential aide said he discussed with the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, on the faulty plane [Boeing 737 jet] and he said the maintenance costs were excessive because of the age of the aircraft, hence the need for another plane.

The presidential fixed-wing fleet includes a Gulfstream G500, two Falcon 7Xs, a Hawker 4000, and a Challenger 605.

Three of the seven fixed-wings are reportedly unserviceable. Meanwhile, the rotor-wing fleet includes two Agusta 139s and two Agusta 101s, all operated by the Nigerian Air Force but supervised by the Office of the National Security Adviser.

Former President Buhari promised to reduce the number of aircraft in the PAF to the absolute necessary.

In April 2023, three jets were put up for sale, but there were no specifics on which.

However, efforts to sell one of the Dassault Falcon 7x and the Hawker 4000 in October 2016 stalled when a potential buyer reduced their initial offer from $24m to $11m.

Since 2017, budgetary allocations for the fleet have shown a growing trend, with one exception in 2020.

The allocation for the fleet increased from N4.37bn in 2017 to N20.52bn in 2024, showing a 370 per cent rise in running costs.

In 2018, the fleet’s budget rose significantly by 66.13 per cent to N7.26bn, driven by a substantial increase in capital project allocations while maintaining similar levels for recurrent costs. This upward trajectory continued into 2019, slightly increasing the total allocation to N7.30bn.

The exception came in 2020, when the budget dropped by nearly seven per cent to N6.79bn, primarily due to decreased overhead costs, a reflection of the global economic impacts of lockdowns and disruptions in operations.

By 2021, however, the budget surged dramatically to N12.55bn—a record increase of 84.83 per cent from the previous year.

In 2022, maintenance expenses for each aircraft ranged from $1.5m to $4.5m annually.

The 2022, 2023 and 2024 appropriation acts earmarked N12.48bn, N13.07bn and N20.52bn respectively.

On his way to the 2024 Commonwealth Heads of Government Summit in Samoa, a foreign object damaged the cockpit windscreen of Vice President Kashim Shettima’s GulfStream aircraft during a stopover at JFK Airport in New York.

According to Lee Aerospace, manufacturers of the Gulfstream, jet windshields consist of thick multilayered structures of varying layers of glass and transparent acrylic built to withstand collision with a 2kg object.

However, damage to the windshield must have affected its inner layers. While specific prices for replacement can vary based on supplier, labour rates and regional costs, estimates suggest that a single windshield replacement for a G550 can range from $50,000 to $70,000 for part and labour costs.

In an interview with our correspondent, the General Secretary of the Aviation Round Table, Olumide Ohunayo, blamed the meteoric rise in the allocations for the PAF on the age of some of the aircraft in the fleet and declining value of the naira as well as the “commercial use” of aircraft by the Nigerian Air Force.

Ohunayo said, “The cost will definitely increase over the years because for one, this issue of the naira against the dollar. As the naira keeps falling to the dollar, we will see a rise in cost because most of the costs of training crew and engineers and replacing aircraft parts are all in dollars.

“Also, some of these aircraft are not new. The older the aircraft, the higher the cost of maintenance and operation.

“Lastly, during these past years, terrorism and insecurity have increased in Nigeria, which has also affected the cost of insuring the aircraft.”

For his part, the Executive Chairman of the Centre for Anti-Corruption and Open Leadership, Debo Adeniran, argued that the administration’s spending habits were opposite to Nigerians’ expectations of frugality.

“What we are getting from this administration is opposite to our expectation. We thought we would have an administration that would be frugal in spending and very meticulous at implementing its budget.

“But what we are getting is an administration that has fallen in love with profligacy; that doesn’t see anything wrong in living big amid a poverty-stricken nation.

“It is a reenactment of the Shagari administration, whereby they bought the biggest Mercedes Benz and made themselves as comfortable as possible without considering how much the masses are suffering.

“So when you look at a Vice President saying he’s not travelling [to Samoa] again because there was a splinter on the windscreen of his private aircraft. Why should that be the case?

“First and foremost, we need to be represented at such an international meeting, where we should be well represented by the first two citizens of this country.

“He abandoned that, which means we would have lost certain representation that we deserve at that forum. Two, money will have been spent on advance parties that went ahead of the Vice President. But he abandoned the journey altogether.”