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Pendulum: My Early Permutations on 2023 Presidential Election

Published

7 months ago

August 27, 2022

Eric

By Dele Momodu

Fellow Nigerians, let me make a few clarifications before going into the nitty-gritty of this epistle.

Today, I’m wearing two caps on this page. I’m a journalist as well as a politician. I have been both for decades, although I remain pre-eminently a journalist. Also, I have been a non-partisan politician for a long time until recently. Even then I have seen it fit to support candidates from the two mainstream political parties depending on the capacity and performance of the ruling government party. Since this is my column, it is expected that it will reflect my personal opinion and not that of any other person. This has always been the case although my opinion may sometimes be shaped by not only the voracious reading culture that I have made the mainstay of my career as a journalist but also the wide consultations and interactions that I continue to have both as a journalist and politician. And opinions can oftentimes be subjective, although I try to be as objective and fair as possible. I am aware that even objectivity and fairness can be relative, but they are standards one must strive to attain, maintain and exist by in life. Equally importantly, I am also brutally frank and open to self-criticism at all times.

Going on to my early permutations for the 2023 Presidential race, let me state categorically that I have at least six good friends in the race, namely, Mr Abdul-Lateef Kolawole Abiola, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Mr Omoyele Sowore, Mr Peter Obi and Alhaji Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. All six of them are eminently qualified to lead our country Nigeria. They all have distinctive personal characteristics and attributes which enable each of them to be individually considered strong candidates for the position of President. However, each of them cannot be considered in isolation. They must be looked at from the viewpoint of Party, background and relationships. I must therefore establish some methodology for my assessment of what would determine the ultimate winner of the 2023 Presidential contest.

In present day Nigerian Presidential elections, there are certain major factors at play. These factors have become majorly important given the prevailing circumstances in the country particularly those of agitations for restructuring and secession, insecurity, failed economy and poverty, gross unemployment, infrastructure deficit and decay, educational maladministration and maladjustment and parlous health services. These major factors include the following:

One. There were usually two mainstream political parties. In 2023, they will be APC and PDP. A third force is still warming up as a major challenger, especially in the Southern regions. It is not yet known how much power it can garner and galvanise in the coming months. That is the Labour Party. In all honesty, that is as far as my third eye can see for now. I apologise therefore to my three other friends in what I call fringe parties, namely, Kola Abiola, Rabiu Kwankwaso and Omoyele Sowore. Kwankwaso has a chance of doing much better than the other two because of his popularity in the massive electoral cauldron that is Kano State. He also has some following in the North, but I still do not see him making such an inroad as to garner more than 3-5% of the total votes cast.

Two. Ethnicity, or what is called the race factor in the United States of America, will play a major part in 2023. A lot of Nigerians have seen the ethnic factor play out by a division of the country into three large parts, the monolithic North, the South West Edo and Delta States, and an amalgam of the other South South States and the South East States. On my part I do not see a monolithic North as well. The Middle Belt including Kwara and Kogi States have been much maligned and marginalised in this respect. Yet they have their own strong force and voice. I will break down its beneficiaries in the next few paragraphs.

Three. Religion will play a significant role in 2023. We have already seen how this has become a major thorny issue due to APC’s decision to present a Moslem/Moslem ticket. It is also frontloaded as a major factor because of the prevailing distrust and insecurity that is all pervading in the country. This used to be largely a Northern thing with grave vicious violence being unleashed upon one another by Moslems and Christians alike. However, this distrust, and insecurity, has spilled over into the South and is part of the reasons why agitations for restructuring and self-determination have risen to a crescendo.

Four. Money. This has always been a major player in determining who succeeds to the Presidency of the country. The ruling Party has always had an advantage in this area. For starters, as of June 2021 there were almost 180,000 polling units in Nigeria. It is not unusual for additional polling booths to be created a few days to the election. What is constant is that every serious political party has to have at least one agent at each polling unit and these polling agents need to be adequately remunerated and provided with all necessary logistic material to ensure effective and efficient return as a party polling agent. To man all these Polling stations will need at over N20 billion by my reckoning and that is being on the cheap side. Loads of cash will therefore be needed by all of the contestants.

Five. The Buhari factor. The Federal Government is too powerful as it controls INEC, Police, Army other security agencies, even the Central Bank and so on, to a large extent. This is a major tool for any government which is unwilling to give up the stranglehold it has on power, particularly when it realises that the populace is thoroughly dissatisfied with its performance.

Let me now take you on a tour de force of what you should expect to see next year.

From my crystal ball, I can foresee a straight fight between APC and PDP candidates. In this round one, APC candidate, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu seems to be at an advantage. His party is currently in power and controls all the appurtenances of government. Nevertheless, the strength of APC is also its main weakness. After eight years of monumental failure in office, it has lost most of the attraction that brought it to power in 2015. Its victory in the 2019 Presidential elections is still controversial till this day. Nigerians may wish to punish APC for its terrible performance which has not only seen them more impoverished but also more insecure and afraid for their very lives. Tinubu’s case is worsened by the fact that he has a dilemma in being unwilling to distance himself from this government’s policies which have failed the people so woefully because of the fact that this will be seen as wilting criticism of the Buhari administration. The withdrawal of the support of Buhari apparently still sends shivers down the Tinubu camp.

On the issue of ethnicity, this may be the major clincher in the race. There are two Southern contenders in the Presidential election. The major Southerner is the former Lagos State Governor Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and to a lesser degree, the other Southerner is former Anambra State Governor, Mr Peter Obi. My brothers and friends, Kola Abiola, and Omoyele Sowore, both Southerners as well, have little say in this battle royale which the 2023 Presidential election portends. The principal challenger for Tinubu and Obi will be former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. In the South East, I believe that the Igbos are likely to back their son, Obi and the Labour Party for the most part. Obi’s Anambra State is a hybrid State presently controlled by APGA. The State does not have a serious Presidential candidate contender. It is noteworthy, that the South East has traditionally been a veritable stomping ground for the PDP. The Party presently controls Enugu and Abia States. This is not likely to change too much, and the PDP may win or come a close second to the Labour Party. Notwithstanding the fact that APC has made some inroads into the South East by virtue of the fact that it controls two States, Imo and Ebonyi, one of which it does by virtue of the defection of the Governor, I still feel that it will come a distant third. My opinion is that the Labour Party is likely to take the lead with about 45 to 50 percent of the total votes cast in the South East because of the Obi factor, even though it presently has no showing in that region at the moment. Atiku will follow with about 30-35 percent and Tinubu 15-20 percent.

In the South South, Atiku will take the chunk of votes because these have always been predominantly PDP States, although in some States like Rivers, Delta and Edo, the crisis in the Party may cause the PDP to lose votes some of its normal votes, if not quickly resolved. Similarly, the defection of Governor Ayade of Cross River State may also cause the PDP’s margin of victory in the Zone to shrink, especially in Cross River State. My belief is that the Zone is guaranteed for Atiku because his Vice-Presidential candidate, Dr Ifeanyi Okowa of Delta State, comes from this zone. There are usually huge votes from here, although these were emasculated in 2019. PDP is likely to record up to 60 percent in most parts, if Governors Nyesom Wike, Ifeanyi Okowa, Udom Emmanuel, Douyi Diri, Godwin Obaseki and other party loyalists give their all. If the Party’s crisis in the zone is allowed to fester and worsen, the PDP may get no more than 50%. The rest will be split between APC and Labour with APC taken between 20 and 30% depending on how the PDP intra Party mess develops.

The South West will be extremely dramatic, and the results may be very shocking. APC controls four States here, Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and Ondo and PDP, two States, Oyo and Osun.
While Tinubu will definitely win Lagos, his margin of victory may be reduced by the popularity of both Obi and the mass grassroots mobilisation of the PDP Gubernatorial candidate, Mr Olajide Adediran, aka Jandor. This is the only State in the South West that may feature three strong contenders. The Igbo population in Lagos and the EndSars Movement will favour Peter Obi more than it will favour Atiku. The other South West States will witness a tough battle between Asiwaju and Atiku with Tinubu holding the sway because he is a Yoruba man.

Now, let’s move to North Central and start with Kwara and Kogi States. The Saraki factor will help PDP in Kwara. The former Senate President has obviously regained his bounce especially because of the perceived frugality of the incumbent governor, Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq. This may give Atiku a major edge over Tinubu here. Kogi may be tougher to win for Atiku because of the young Governor, Yahaya Bello, an APC stalwart, but the two parties will run almost neck and neck. Obi is unlikely to feature significantly in these two States. Plateau State is an APC State but with the Muslim/Muslim brouhaha, APC will face an uphill task because this is a major Christian State in the North. PDP is in charge in Benue and again the Muslim/Muslim ticket of APC is highly contentious here and will swing even more votes to PDP. I feel that most of the Northern Christians may support Atiku for having a more balanced ticket. Though I understand that some people in these parts of the North Central are tempted to consider Peter Obi, but their leaders are reaching out to them and telling them not to waste their votes. Niger and Nasarawa are presently controlled by APC Governors. Obi will not feature in these States. It will therefore be a straight fight between Atiku and Tinubu, with Tinubu winning more than 60% of the votes in Niger State and no more than 55% of the votes in Nasarawa State based on the incumbency of the APC Governors countered by the Atiku factor.

The North East will be very interesting. Many pundits are wondering why Tinubu chose a Kanuri man, Kashim Shettima, from Borno State, as running mate and not someone from the largest voting zone in the North West. Well, as an experienced politician, he probably knows what we don’t know. The PDP candidate, Atiku Abubakar, is a Fulani man from Adamawa, a North Eastern State. The North East has not produced a Nigerian President in a long time and the crave for one favours Atiku sentimentally. I know Atiku will do much better than he did in 2019 because the Buhari factor is absent. And in any event Buhari has performed abysmally. This may spread to Bauchi, a major PDP State, as well as Taraba State which is also a PDP State. I believe that there will be some swing towards Atiku in Yobe State although the State is a prominent APC State now and Shettima’s Kanuri influence will help the APC ticket here. The race will be hotly contested but the result will still be a victory for Tinubu though the margin will be slimmer when contrasted with the massive victory for Buhari and APC in 2019.

The king of voting in Presidential elections remains the North West which is the largest voting bloc in Nigeria. It is almost impossible to become President of Nigeria without winning big in this region. The State of Kano takes the cake in this respect. Kano State alone could close almost any margin that a Presidential candidate is bringing from other Zones. Despite being an APC State with a strong Governor in Umar Ganduje, Atiku Abubakar may likely lead others, namely Tinubu and Kwankwaso, because of his Fulani lineage and heritage. Blood, they say is thicker than water. Having said that Kano is predominantly a Hausa and not Fulani State and this should augur well for Tinubu. What is clear is that Tinubu definitely needs Kano, like a million dollars lifeline, to borrow that popular proverbial cliche. To this end he has worked assiduously to build bridges in this State and other North West States. This is one of the primary reasons that he won the APC Presidential Primaries, and he still count on the people of Kano to vote for him against the Fulani, Atiku Abubakar. In fact, the three Ks of Kano, Kaduna and Katsina are absolutely needed for victory by any Presidential candidate. Kaduna is a bit tricky because of its preponderance of Christian population, but Nasir El-Rufai is a strong no-nonsense APC stalwart who will want to deliver massively for his Party. Sokoto, is a major PDP State and Tambuwal has shown deep loyalty to Abubakar and his cause. Atiku will win easily here. Zamfara and Kebbi States are under the control of APC, but Atiku’s cultural affinity may give him some edge in these two States but maybe not too much as to give him overall victory, which still seems likely to go to APC in these two States, if the 2019 results provide some indication although again, the Buhari factor will reduce APC votes here as in other core Northern States as he is not on the ballot….

I will be back with more updates in the coming months…

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Guber Polls: Second Term Seeking Governors Fret

Published

4 days ago

March 18, 2023

Eric

By Eric Elezuo

As Nigerians march to various polling units across the 36 states of the federation to elect 28 governors out of 837 candidates and 993 House of Assembly members out of 10,240 candidates, a special prayer for a smooth electoral process devoid of what was obtainable on February 23, 2023 when the presidential and National Assembly elections were held has been canvassed.

It is on record that the February 23 elections were marred by violence, none transmission of results electronically, harassment and intimidation of voters not loyal to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) by thugs allegedly loyal to the APC and flagrant distortion of election results. While some governments have congratulated the announced winner of the presidential election, most international bodies including The Financial Times, New York Times, The Economist and many others have condemned the election and the emergence of the APC candidate, Bola Tinubu, saying everything was heavily flawed. Presently, the matter is in court as two presidential candidates; Peter Obi of the Labour Party and Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), who felt aggrieved are seeking redress from the judiciary.

But with the way things turned out during the previous election, regarding how the emergence of the Labour Party and Peter Obi proved to be a game changer, and practically retired some old politicians as well as swept votes in places considered strongholds of some politically godfathers, governors who are seeking reelection have become jittery as fear of the Labour Party sunami has created a new chapter in the political equilibrium.

In the 28 states where governorship elections will be held, 10 are seeking reelection. They are Babagana Zulum of Borno State, Babajide Sanwo-Olu of Lagos State, Abdullahi Sule of Nasarawa State, Dapo Abiodun of Ogun State, Seyi Makinde of Oyo State, Abdulraman Abdulrazaq of Kwara State, Mohammed Bala of Bauchi State, Umaru Fintiri of Adamawa State, Muhammad Inuwa of Gombe State and Bello Matawalle of Zamfara State.

Most of the governors listed above did not perform in delivering their states to their presidential candidates, and as a result, have come under intense tension as to what may go down at the polling units with special regards to their quest to return to their various government houses for another four years. Consequently, supporters of some governors and political parties resolved to attacks of supporters of other political parties either physically or emotionally.

In Lagos where Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu is having a running battle with the candidate of the Labour Party, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, and to some extent the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, Olajide Adediran, situation has degenerated to ethnic attacks, with the indigenes throwing tantrums at the Igbo for supporting the LP, and by extension Rhodes-Vivour. The Yoruba has insisted that the candidacy of Rhodes-Vivour has been rejected because he was born of Igbo-mother. Consequently, many Yoruba have cast aspersions at his candidacy, saying he was Igbo, and Lagos was not going to hand over their affairs to a ‘foreigner’. These notion, which has not only been perpetrated by the ordinary man, but by supposedly high placed citizens including Femi Fani-Kayode, who also almost in his characteristic stride, set up a conflict between the Igbo and Yoruba, with a damning article, “The Truth About the Igbos”, and the many others, has created skirmishes against the Igbo in Lagos. the thugs, who were well on ground during the presidential election, have also returned with threats of dealing with any Igbo voting against the APC.

In a viral video, a known thug, Musiliu Akinsanya, known by his nickname, MC Oluomo, was seen threatening the people of the Southeast not to risk coming out to vote if they are voting against the APC.

“We have begged them. If they don’t want to vote for us, it is not a fight. Tell them, mama Chukwudi, if you don’t want to vote for us, sit down at home. Sit down at home,” he said.

But the Police, speaking through the Force Public Relations Officer, Olumuyiwa Adejobi, said Oluomo was joking when he made the utterance. As a result, he was not even as much as invited to explain his position or why he made such a costly joke.

“So, let us take it for a joke like he has said. But nobody has the right to tell Nigerians not to come out and vote. It is not allowed. It is not possible; not proper. But he has come out to debunk that it is not true. So, let us leave it that way – that it is not true and a joke within one or two persons in that area at that particular point in time. Even the CP of Lagos was on a television programme this afternoon to address that if it is true, they are investigating that matter,” Adejobi said during a live TV show.

But one thing was sure, the threat of losing his position because of the overwhelming support the LP was receiving in Lagos, Sanwo-Olu became more visible in campaigns, and became to appear on TV interviews which he had hitherto shunned and became more accessible to Lagosians, who agreed that he had been faraway from the people in the last four years. He had paid pension, increased salaries of civil servants, released seized property among other people oriented actions he was wont to have taken long before now.

Another angle the Yoruba elites have stooped low to attack Igbo is in the area of unconfirmed notion of Igbo saying Lagos was ‘no man’s land’. So far, not one of the speakers, or writers, who made the assertion has quoted a source where the statement came from, prompting observers to conclude that the mindless attacks were products of hatred against the Igbo race. It has also been noised that the Igbo wanted to conquer Lagos through electing Rhodes-Vivour, who also is a Yoruba man.

“That is one of the most laughable part of this whole scenario. How can the election of a young Yoruba man means conquering Lagos. Isn’t it the more reason people should see there’s no credence in the entire setting. The Yorubas have, because of hatred forgotten that everyone wants the stranglehold of Bola Tinubu for over 24 years in Lagos to end. Yet, even those that are supposedly in the know have turned around to weave a tale of Igbo aiming to take over Lagos because Gbadebo is contesting against Tinubu’s candidate,” a prominent Lagos indigene, who craved anonymity said.

What is more worrisome, a cross section of Lagos residents told The Boss, is that the yarn is not only being peddled by illiterates or layabouts, but by people who are well looked up to by the younger generation. It would be recalled that during the prelude to the presidential contest, Sam Omatseye, who is the chairman of the editorial board of the The Nations Newspapers, owned by Bola Tinubu, pen an opinion titled Obi-tuary, where he derided the person of Peter Obi and the Igbo race. His was not the last as many others followed.

What is more obvious than clear is the fact that a new precedence has been set by the so called Yoruba people fighting against Gbadebo. It means that many of them married to women of other tribes including foreign women, has automatically denied their children of Yoruba heritage. If a child born of another tribe-woman but Yoruba father is not of full Yoruba blood, then the race should be in for a crisis as many Yoruba men are spread across the world, and no one knows where the arrow of love will strike him.

Of more importance is the fact that Rhodes-Vivour contested the senatorial position for Lagos west in 2019 under the PDP, but no one remembered that he was a half breed. Then he had no chance of winning. Today, hatred has arisen because the young man was riding on the new found popularity of Peter Obi as the face of Nigerian politics presently, to sell himself.

“The day we purge ourselves of the crisis of ethnicity and tribalism, especially the one rooted in blind godfatherism, that will be the day a little respite of brotherliness will be deposited in the nation’s body polity,” a political analyst said.

In Oyo State, the sitting governor, Seyi Makinde, has every reason to worry. He is one of the G5 governors, who abandoned the PDP and its presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, to support Tinubu to victory in Oyo. Today, the APC has denied any form of alliance with the governor, and transferred allegiance to its governorship candidate, Teslim Folarin. The sitting governor will battle to regain the confidence of the party he abandoned, and how he can make APC keep to their side of the bargain during the presidential race. As it stands, other members of the G5 has been made irrelevant having lost their bid to seek senatorial election. They are Okezie Ikpeazu of Abia State, Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi of Enugu State and Samuel Ortom of Benue State. The last and leader of the group, Nyesom Wike of Rivers State is battling to ensure his candidate, Sim Fubara emerges the governor of Rivers State. If Fubara and Makinde loses today, that would mark the inglorious end of the G5.

In Nasarawa, Abdullahi Sule’s loss to the LP during the presidential election, is an eye opener, and has made the PDP family to intensify campaigns to ensure they return to government house. This is not forgetting that the APC is also hot on their heels.

In Kwara State, the government of Abdulrazaq will be facing another set of Otoge revolution chiefly because of the the general view that the governor under-performed, and again with the Bukola Saraki rising profile in the last four years..

In Bauchi State, Governor Bala Mohammed of the PDP is having a photo finish with his rival from the APC. The race for superiority has been the major cause of armed skirmishes between the supporters of both parties.

In Ogun State, the rivalry between the incumbent governor, Dapo Abiodun and former governor of the state, Senator Ibikunle Amosun continue to heighten. Though both men are in the same APC, Amosun is however sponsoring and supporting the candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Biyi Otegbeye as thye incumbent owing to person issues. Abiodun will need more than his track record to defeat Amosun again.

In Adamawa State, the government of Ahmadu Fintiri will have a running battle with the APC candidate, Aishatu Binani, who is a woman. The crave for a first woman governor is keeping Fintiri at the edge of his seat as the governorship election lasts.

Whichever the pendulum swings, it must be noted that the sitting governors, who are seeking second terms are fretting owing to pronounced and tangible oppositions.

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Photo News: Dele Momodu Meets FIFA Executives in Rwanda

Published

1 week ago

March 15, 2023

Eric

Veteran journalist and Chairman, Ovation Media Group, Chief Dele Momodu, was among the special guests of honour at the special FIFA event held in Kigali

Amaju Pinnick, Dele Momodu, President Paul Kagame of Rwanda and Isha Johansen after the FIFA Council Dinner in Kigali…

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Court Set to Decide Nigeria’s Next President

Published

2 weeks ago

March 11, 2023

Eric

By Eric Elezuo

The much awaited February 25, 2023 Presidential and National Assembly Elections have come and gone. Not only has the election been concluded, the Prof. Mahmood Yakubu-led Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has also concluded collation of results, and on March 1, 2023 declared the candidate of the ruling All Progressives Progress, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu as the winner, and president-elect.

But the declaration of Tinubu as winner has popped up more electoral act crisis as two of the major parties and their presidential candidates in the election have rejected the election in its totality, calling for a total cancellation. They maintain that the elections were heavily flawed with potent evidence of manipulations, harassment, violence, intimidation and stealing and destruction of electoral materials all in the name of denying a group of people their rights to vote.

Consequently, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP) have taken their grievances to the judiciary to seek redress with each claiming that they won the election. They agreed that INEC worked to favour the ruling party, ignoring the use of the much publicised Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the promise to electronically transmit results to IReV in real time. But all the calls made to INEC to call off the announcement of results to review identified lapses were rebuffed with the continuation of election results and the subsequent declaration of Tinubu as winner. The battle has therefore shifted to the Appeal Court where the first part of crossfire will take place before the Supreme Court finally decides without recourse to another authority.

Except in 2015 when former President Goodluck Jonathan took the path of honour and conceded defeat to Muhammadu Buhari, all other elections have been contested in the courts, and the courts have been the ultimate decider. Buhari remained the chief litigant as he has practically gone to court on record occasions including against Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, Alhaji Musa Yaradua and Dr. Goodluck Jonathan. Presently, all the parties in the suit have been granted permission to interrogate all INEC election materials.

Declaring his decision to challenge INEC’s declaration in court, Obi addressed a press conference a day after, and declared as follows:

“This is my first time of speaking to the media, and I thank all of you for your understanding. For me, it is a very simple thing to speak to Nigerians who on the 25th of February trooped out en masses as committed citizens to participate in what all of us have called an existential election, for a supposedly free, fair, credible presidential and national assembly election. We give thanks to God.

“For me, the number one thing is gratitude. Gratitude to God Almighty that continues to protect and bless our dear country Nigeria. Number two is gratitude. Gratitude to Nigerians that participated in the election, answering the call as true citizens in our dear country. Number three is gratitude to those of you Nigerians, especially the youth, that believed and worked tirelessly for a new Nigeria, I thank them for the hard work. Gratitude to the Obidients, Youths, those who believe that a new Nigeria is possible, and I say to them that a new Nigeria is possible, and we will work for that new Nigeria.

“The resilience, the hard work, for a new Nigeria should not wane. Datti and I remain committed to that new Nigeria. I know how they will be feeling now because of the way the elections have come and gone. The commitment of Nigerians, even in the face of unwarranted attacks, is a testimony that a new Nigeria is indeed possible. I look at people like Lady Jennifer who was stabbed but insisted on voting, and that gives me courage to believe that a new Nigeria is indeed possible –and there are so many other Nigerians.

“The election that we just witnessed has been conducted and results announced as programmed. It is a clear violation of the electoral rules and guidelines as we were promised. This election did not meet the minimum standard expected of a free, transparent, credible fair election. It will go down as one of the most controversial elections ever conducted in Nigeria.

“The good and hardworking people of Nigeria have again been robbed by our supposed leaders whom they trusted. However, very humbly, I must appeal to all Nigerians to remain peaceful, law-abiding, and conduct themselves in the most responsible manner. Please be assured that Datti and I, and indeed all of us, this is not the end but the beginning of the journey for the birth of a new Nigeria. Datti Baba-Ahmed and I remain undaunted and committed to the project of a new Nigeria that will be built on honesty, transparency, fairness, justice, equity.

“All the above starts with a process. The process through which people come into office is far more fundamental, more important than what they do thereafter. It is my belief that if you must answer “His Excellency”, the process through which you arrive to office must be excellent.

“We must now require that we do the right things. It has to generate the confidence and moral authority to lead. As you know, the destruction of a society begins and gradually progresses when we act rascally, with the deliberate manipulation of the rule of law and the suppression of the will of the people. During my campaign we have been saying that we will govern by the rule of law because we know what not doing that will bring about.

“I assure the good people of Nigeria that we will explore all legal and peaceful options to recall our mandate.

“We won the election, and we will prove it to Nigerians.

“Please, do not despair. We have elections coming up on the 11th. I enjoin you to go out. Campaign. Come out and vote in that election. We still have so many massive support out there that we need for our subnational and state assemblies. Please, come out and be part of that election. I assure you that I will be part of it. I assure you that I am totally committed to a better future in this country, and nothing will stop that. Datti’s commitment, my commitment, is total.

“Be rest assured that your support will not be in vain and you will not find us wanting. We must build a better Nigeria where Nigerian youth will be happy, glad to call their own country.

“Thank you and may God Almighty continue to bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.”

Also, the presidential candidate of the PDP followed and declared as follows:

“Fellow Nigerians, it is with a heart full of sadness that I address you today.

“I have in the last three decades devoted my life to the battle to birth and deepen democracy in our country.

“It was a battle that started during the military era. It was a struggle that nearly caused me my life and that of my son, Adamu, in Kaduna. I survived the assassination only by the mercies and grace of God.

“Following that attack, I was forced into exile. But that attack claimed the precious lives of some police officers. That was not all: my businesses were nearly crippled and my signature business was eventually appropriated by the maximum ruler of that era. My commitment to enthroning democracy ensured that I joined forces with other compatriots. As a leader of the defunct Social Democratic Party (SDP), we fought and won the 1993 presidential election, which was acclaimed as the fairest and freest election in our history. Sadly, Chief MKO Abiola, who embodied that hope for the birth of a new Nigeria, paid the ultimate price

“Our fight to enthrone democracy continued. Indeed, the motivating factor for the birth of the Peoples Democratic Party was to force the exit of the military from government and their permanent return to the military barracks.

“Following the exit of the military and the advent of democratic rule in 1999, I did not rest on my oars. I deployed the same level of commitment to advance and deepen our democracy. I did this because our democracy was bought at a huge price of human lives. My mentor and true Nigerian hero, who this venue in which we are gathered this evening is named for, was one of those who paid the ultimate price in that battle. So, also was Chief Alfred Rewane, Chief MKO Abiola and his dear wife, Chief (Mrs) Kudirat Abiola.

“It was also for this reason that I sacrificed my political aspiration and fought against the actualisation of Third Term. Whether during the military or civilian era, I have, no matter how inconvenient, pitched my tent with the people against dictators. During the military regime, it nearly cost me my life and the near decimation of my businesses. In the civilian administration, it had serious adverse implications on my political life. But I have remained undaunted because I was, and still convinced, that the only reason why I am in politics is to work in tandem with other compatriots in the advancement of the wellbeing of the people.

“The 2023 presidential election presented our nation and its people the greatest opportunity for a reset. We had everything going for us: a legal framework in the 2022 Electoral Act and the BVAS technology. The enthusiasm of Nigerians to turn out and in large numbers was an added bonus.

“However, the dreams and aspirations of Nigerians who braced all the challenges to go and cast their votes on Saturday, 25th of February, 2023, were shattered by the conduct of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), which failed to live up to expectations. The weekend election was neither free nor fair. Preliminary assessments indicate that it is the worst conducted elections since the return to democratic rule. The manipulation and fraud that attended this election was unprecedented in the history of our nation. I can still not understand why the electoral umpire was in such a hurry to conclude collation and announcement of the result, given the number of complaints of irregularities of bypassing of the BVAS, failure of uploading to the IREV, and unprecedented cancellations and disenfranchisement of millions of voters in breach of the Electoral Act and the commission’s own guidelines. It was indeed a rape of democracy.

“Having consulted with leaders of our party and Nigerians from different walks of life, I have come to the conclusion that the processes and outcome of the Presidential and National Assembly election of last Saturday was grossly flawed in every material particular, and as such must be challenged. This has been attested to by both local and international observers. I want to believe that this was not the legacy that President Muhammadu Buhari had promised. For President Buhari, it is not too late to make amends for the good of our country and the future generations and indeed to assure his legacy.

“This battle to right the wrongs of Saturday is not about me. It is a continuation of my battles to deepen democracy and for a better life for our people. It is about the future of Nigerian youths.

“I know that Nigerians, especially the youth, are traumatised by the developments, but I want to urge them to conduct themselves peacefully. Like I have done over the years, I assure you that I will commit the rest of my life in ensuring that true democracy, which affirms the supremacy of your votes and your will, will take firm footing and guarantee a stable, prosperous and peaceful Nigeria. This is more so as Nigeria represents the hope of Africa and the Black World.”

The duo of Atiku and Peter Obi must have at the back of their minds that no presidential election result declared has ever been upturned by any court in the history of Nigeria’s democracy. It will be a new precedence if by any stroke of luck any of the two is able to make the justices of the Supreme Court change the results already declared.

Saddled with the responsibility of making the right decision as the choice of the next Nigeria’s president shifts to the judiciary are Justice Olukayode Ariwoola, who is the Chief Justice of Nigeria; Musa Datijo Muhammad, Kudirat Kekere-Ekun, Chima Centus Nweze, Amina Augie, Uwani Musa Abba Aji, John Inyang Okoro and Lawal Garba.