Opinion
Banks’ Excess Profits Tax: Cause-Related Marketing to the Rescue?
Published
1 year agoon
By
Eric
By Magnus Onyibe
In response to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) proposal for a 70% tax on the excessive profits banks made from naira devaluation in 2023 – profits which increased by at least 51% due to President Bola Tinubu’s economic reforms – there has been a noticeable rise in banks’ philanthropic activities.
The proposed excess profits tax, or windfall tax on foreign exchange gains, floated four months ago, appears to be part of the government’s strategy to address its declining revenue base. This is critical as the cost of governance continues to outpace income. For instance, Nigeria’s 2025 budget, totaling ₦49.7 trillion, relies on borrowing ₦13.08 trillion, while ₦15.33 trillion will be used to service the country’s enormous debt, which stands at an estimated ₦134.3 trillion. Only ₦34.82 trillion of the budget is expected to come from royalties and taxes.
To reduce the country’s dependence on borrowing, President Tinubu brought in Taiwo Oyedele, a former PwC West Africa tax head, to overhaul Nigeria’s outdated tax administration system, which the president has described as a relic of colonial times. Oyedele’s assignment, aimed at strengthening the system and generating more revenue, aligns with the government’s goal of improving infrastructure and services through increased fiscal resources has been welcome by most Nigerians who are looking forward to a better country with more robust infratructure which only more revenue can faciliate.
But there is a snag which is that some Nigerians are worried about the implications for the income accruing to their states from the federation account which they suspect will be reduced
The excess profits tax proposal seems to have been seen by the president’s tax reform committee, which includes private-sector experts, as a readily available source of additional revenue. Many of these experts, familiar with banks’ financial records through previous auditing roles, likely identified the windfall profits as an easy target.
While banks initially resisted the proposal, they were cautious not to do so too publicly. Prominent figures like Olisa Agbakoba, a former Nigerian Bar Association president, and Mustafa Chike-Obi, chairman of the Bank Directors Association of Nigeria (BIDAN), voiced criticism. However, the Chartered Institute of Taxation of Nigeria (CITN), led by its president Chief Segun Agbeluyi, supported the move.
Subsequently, United Bank for Africa (UBA) chairman Tony Elumelu and First City Monument Bank (FCMB) CEO Ladi Balogun engaged with the presidency in consultations. Their temperate and conciliatory approach during interviews, following the initial announcement of the tax, helped ease tensions between banks and their regulator, the CBN, shifting the debate away from public confrontation.
The issue of the proposed excess profits tax was eventually moved from public discussion to private negotiations in boardrooms. This stands in sharp contrast to the uproar triggered by the four tax reform bills introduced by the Taiwo Oyedele-led committee, which are currently being debated in the National Assembly (NASS). These bills propose significant reforms to Nigeria’s colonial-era tax system, as highlighted by President Tinubu in his first media address since assuming office on May 29, 2023.
Before the lawmakers went on their annual recess, the bills had sparked intense controversy, particularly among northern lawmakers who felt the proposed changes, especially to Value Added Tax (VAT), would disproportionately benefit the south. This contentious debate deepened the longstanding ethnic, religious, and regional divides between northern and southern legislators, overshadowing traditional party lines and amplifying non-partisan tensions.
As the situation edged toward a potential crisis, a truce was brokered at the Aso Rock Villa. Legislators were urged to set aside their disagreements and take more time to review the bills thoroughly, enabling them to suggest reasonable amendments. President Tinubu, in numerous public statements, expressed his willingness to incorporate these adjustments before the bills’ final passage.
The vigorous debate surrounding these tax reform bills raises questions about how much more contentious the removal of petrol subsidies might have been had it been subjected to a similar public debate. If the tax reforms have ignited such a high level of scrutiny, one can only imagine the political turmoil that might have ensued over discussions on petrol subsidies or the unification of the dual naira-foreign exchange window.
This is where a very thin line separates leaders from being democrats or monarchies. That is because if as democrats they allow extensive and unending debates on critical development issues, action will never be taken. But if they ram policies down the throats of legislators , such leaders would be adorned with the toga of dictatorship or as one who is monarchical.
Therein lies the dilema and a justification for the aphorism “ uneasy lies the head that wears the crown”
And it is at times like that, that Executive Orders which are easier ways of making laws while bypassing the legislators are viable options. But they are restrictive and tenous as they lack wide coverage and the longevity that are inherent in laws passed via a due legislative process.
However, President Tinubu appears to recognize the critical importance of timing in politics. With a limited four-year term, he seems determined to implement key reforms early to gain public confidence and lay the groundwork for potential re-election.
Returning to the matter of banks and the excess profits tax, it seems likely that a compromise was reached between the CBN and the banking sector, possibly facilitated by the Bankers’ Committee—a coalition of bank managing directors. This may explain why the excess profits tax has not yet been enforced, appearing instead to have been put on hold.
One of the driving forces behind the foreign exchange gains tax is the urgent need to generate revenue to sustain governance amidst soaring costs. This includes ₦15.81 trillion allocated to debt servicing, with the country’s debt estimated to have reached ₦77 trillion by the time the Tinubu administration assumed office. Expanding the tax base has thus become a necessity.
In this context, banks, under pressure to meet new capital base requirements of ₦500 billion for international operations and ₦200 billion for regional operations, may have directed the government’s tax authorities to explore the potential of taxing electronic transactions. This includes levying charges whenever Nigerians transfer or receive funds electronically in their bank accounts.
The recently introduced Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL) requires banks to deduct ₦50 on electronic transfers or receipts of ₦10,000 or more. With 231.1 million bank accounts in Nigeria as of July last year, the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS) estimates that this levy could generate as much as ₦484 billion over three years. While this has the potential to be a significant revenue source for the government, it raises the question: will it come at the expense of already overburdened Nigerians?
Because the charges are relatively small—a minor percentage of the transaction amount—most bank account holders seem not to feel the pinch yet. This contrasts sharply with the public uproar that followed the removal of the petrol subsidy on May 29, 2023, which sent shockwaves through the economy. While the dust from the subsidy removal is gradually settling, the EMTL could create another source of tension between the government, banks, and the public. The question remains: is such friction unavoidable?
It appears banks are aware of the backlash before the tax that is currently in abeyance was imposed and the potential backlash of the EMTL when the banking public become conscious of it. In what seems to be an attempt to improve their public image and foster goodwill among customers, they have embarked on large-scale Cause Related Marketing (CRM) campaigns in past four (4) months or so. These efforts aim to balance corporate interests with public good, blending their business strategies with socially beneficial initiatives.
This is not the first time banks have faced criticism. When the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) proposed the excess profits tax on foreign exchange gains, I authored an article titled “Banks FX Gains Tax: How CSR Could Have Averted It”, published on August 13 last year. In the piece, I reflected on how proactive Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) measures might have softened the blow of public disapproval. For instance, banks had previously undertaken commendable initiatives, such as renovating the National Arts Theatre and contributing to the CACOVID initiative, which provided medical and economic relief during the pandemic.
During the public launch of my book, “Leading From The Streets: Media Interventions By A Public Intellectual 1999–2019”, three months ago, I highlighted the stark contrast between the significant profits banks were declaring and the struggles of other sectors and ordinary Nigerians. I suggested that banks could demonstrate their commitment to the greater good by waiving certain fees, such as charges for SMS alerts and printed statements. Such small gestures could go a long way in fostering goodwill and mitigating criticism.
“Corporate Nigeria demonstrated admirable resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic. Under the guidance of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), banks and major corporations, through the CACOVID initiative, provided essential support to Nigerians. This effort earned them public praise and bolstered confidence in their commitment to societal well-being.”
I shared this perspective on May 8, several months before the proposal to amend the 2023 Finance Act on July 17, which the Senate approved on July 23. Had bank executives heeded earlier advice to ease the financial burden on their customers, the FX gains tax—now a significant source of concern for them—might never have been introduced. It seems this realization prompted banks to intensify their Cause Related Marketing (CRM) efforts, aligning their brands with various social issues affecting vulnerable communities, whether they are customers or not.
Historically, Nigerian banks have been active in philanthropic initiatives. Available data shows that they have invested significantly in education, healthcare, economic empowerment, and environmental sustainability. For example:
• Education: First Bank of Nigeria established the First Bank Education Endowment Scheme to provide scholarships for undergraduates. Similarly, Zenith Bank launched the Zenith Bank Scholarship Scheme, and GTBank set up its own scholarship initiative to support university students.
• Healthcare: Access Bank initiated the Maternal Health Services Support (MHS) program to improve maternal healthcare, while the UBA Foundation created the UBA Health Initiative to deliver medical aid and health education to communities.
• Economic Empowerment: Stanbic IBTC introduced the Business Incubator Program to foster entrepreneurship and small business development. Fidelity Bank also rolled out the SME Financing Scheme to provide financial support to small and medium-sized enterprises.
• Environmental Sustainability: Ecobank developed the Forests for Life program to promote sustainable forest management and conservation.
Despite these longstanding Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) efforts, public perception of banks remains largely negative. This is partly because banks continue to generate massive profits during periods of widespread economic hardship, like in 2024, when firms were shutting down and individuals struggled due to the impact of socio-economic reforms.
Banks have increasingly realized that CSR alone is not enough to earn public trust. It’s not just about supporting communities but also about visibly engaging with them—a principle that CRM embodies. Unlike CSR, which encompasses broader goals like philanthropy, sustainability, and ethical practices, CRM is a targeted marketing strategy. It seeks to foster an emotional connection between the public and a brand by aligning with specific societal causes.
In light of the proposed tax, banks have shifted their focus from merely advertising their products to associating their brands with public causes. For example:
• UBA has expanded its educational support to include training for the visually impaired in the use of Braille, showcased through televised campaigns.
• Access Bank and Fidelity Bank have also reoriented their advertising strategies over the past four months to highlight their support for social causes rather than solely promoting products and services.
Hitherto the sponsoring of Fashion Week by Gtbank, Tech Week by Zenithbank and Marathan Race by Access bank annually in Lagos had been the most immersive experience of CSR involving those tier -1 banks with their publics.
But banks have learnt that by embedding their brands into social goodwill, they aim to improve their image and strengthen their relationship with the Nigerian public. However, time will tell if this goodwill can endure. The recently introduced Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL), though currently unnoticed by many due to its modest charge of ₦50 per transaction, could soon spark public dissatisfaction. If this happens, banks might once again find themselves at odds with their customers, as was the case with the unpopular fees for SMS alerts.
As the conventional wisdom goes: ‘a stitch in time saves nine’
Magnus Onyibe, a public policy analyst, author, democracy advocate, development strategist, alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, (2003-2007) sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.
To continue with this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng.
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Opinion
Reimagining the African Leadership Paradigm: A Comprehensive Blueprint
Published
6 days agoon
January 10, 2026By
Eric
By Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD
“To lead Africa forward is to move from transactional authority to transformational stewardship—where institutions outlive individuals, data informs vision, and service is the only valid currency of governance” – Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD
The narrative of African leadership in the 21st century stands at a critical intersection of profound potential and persistent paradox. The continent, pulsating with the world’s youngest demographic and endowed with immense natural wealth, nonetheless contends with systemic challenges that stifle its ascent. This divergence between capacity and outcome signals not merely a failure of policy, but a deeper crisis of leadership philosophy and practice. As the global order undergoes seismic shifts, the imperative for African nations to fundamentally re-strategize their approach to governance has transitioned from an intellectual exercise to an existential necessity. Nigeria, by virtue of its demographic heft, economic scale, and cultural influence, serves as the continent’s most significant crucible for this transformation. The journey of Nigerian leadership from its current state to its potential apex offers a blueprint not only for its own 200 million citizens but for an entire continent in search of a new compass.
Deconstructing the Legacy Model: A Diagnosis of Systemic Failure
To construct a resilient future, we must first undertake an unflinching diagnosis of the present. The prevailing leadership archetype across much of Africa, with clear manifestations in Nigeria’s political economy, is built upon a foundation that has proven tragically unfit for purpose. This model is characterized by several interlocking dysfunctions:
· The Primacy of Transactional Politics Over Transformational Vision: Governance has too often been reduced to a complex system of transactions—votes exchanged for short-term patronage, positions awarded for loyalty over competence, and resource allocation serving political expediency rather than national strategy. This erodes public trust and makes long-term, cohesive planning impossible.
· The Tyranny of the Short-Term Electoral Cycle: Leadership decisions are frequently held hostage to the next election, sacrificing strategic investments in education, infrastructure, and industrialization on the altar of immediate, visible—yet fleeting—gains. This creates a perpetual cycle of reactive governance, preventing the execution of decade-spanning national projects.
· Administrative Silos and Bureaucratic Inertia: Government ministries and agencies often operate as isolated fiefdoms, with limited inter-departmental collaboration. This siloed approach fragments policy implementation, leads to contradictory initiatives, and renders the state apparatus inefficient and unresponsive to complex, cross-sectoral challenges like climate change, public health, and national security.
· The Demographic Disconnect: Africa’s most potent asset is its youth. Yet, a vast governance gap separates a dynamic, digitally-native, and globally-aware generation from political structures that remain opaque, paternalistic, and slow to adapt. This disconnect fuels alienation, brain drain, and social unrest.
· The Weakness of Institutions and the Cult of Personality: When the strength of a state is vested in individuals rather than institutions, it creates systemic vulnerability. Independent judiciaries, professional civil services, and credible electoral commissions are weakened, leading to arbitrariness in the application of law, erosion of meritocracy, and a deep-seated crisis of public confidence.
The tangible outcomes of this flawed model are the headlines that define the continent’s challenges: infrastructure deficits that strangle commerce, public education and healthcare systems in states of distress, jobless economic growth, multifaceted security threats, and the chronic hemorrhage of human capital. To re-strategize leadership is to directly address these outputs by redesigning the very system that produces them.
Pillars of a Reformed Leadership Architecture: A Holistic Framework
The new leadership paradigm must be constructed not as a minor adjustment, but as a holistic architectural endeavor. It requires foundational pillars that are interdependent, mutually reinforcing, and built to endure beyond political transitions.
1. The Philosophical Core: Embracing Servant-Leadership and Ethical Stewardship
The most profound change must be internal—a recalibration of the leader’s fundamental purpose. The concept of the leader as a benevolent “strongman” must give way to the model of the servant-leader. This philosophy, rooted in both timeless African communal values (ubuntu) and modern ethical governance, posits that the true leader exists to serve the people, not vice versa. It is characterized by deep empathy, radical accountability, active listening, and a commitment to empowering others. Success is measured not by the leader’s personal accumulation of power or wealth, but by the tangible flourishing, security, and expanded opportunities of the citizenry. This ethos fosters trust, the essential currency of effective governance.
2. Strategic Foresight and Evidence-Based Governance
Leadership must be an exercise in building the future, not just administering the present. This requires the collaborative development of a clear, compelling, and inclusive national vision—a strategic narrative that aligns the energies of government, private sector, and civil society. For Nigeria, frameworks like Nigeria’s Agenda 2050 and the National Development Plan must be de-politicized and treated as binding national covenants. Furthermore, in the age of big data, governance must transition from intuition-driven to evidence-based. This necessitates significant investment in data collection, analytics, and policy-informing research. Whether designing social safety nets, deploying security resources, or planning agricultural subsidies, decisions must be illuminated by rigorous data, ensuring efficiency, transparency, and measurable impact.
3. Institutional Fortification: Building the Enduring Pillars of State
A nation’s longevity and stability are directly proportional to the strength and independence of its institutions. Re-strategizing leadership demands an unwavering commitment to institutional architecture:
· An Impervious Judiciary: The rule of law must be absolute, with a judicial system insulated from political and financial influence, guaranteeing justice for the powerful and the marginalized alike.
· Electoral Integrity as Sacred Trust: Democratic legitimacy springs from credible elections. Investing in independent electoral commissions, transparent technology, and robust legal frameworks is non-negotiable for political stability.
· A Re-professionalized Civil Service: The bureaucracy must be transformed into a merit-driven, technologically adept, and well-remunerated engine of state, shielded from the spoils system and empowered to implement policy effectively.
· Robust, Transparent Accountability Ecosystems: Anti-corruption agencies require genuine operational independence, adequate funding, and protection. Complementing this, transparent public procurement platforms and mandatory asset declarations for public officials must become normalized practice.
4. Collaborative and Distributed Leadership: The Power of the Collective
The monolithic state cannot solve wicked problems alone. The modern leader must be a convener-in-chief, architecting platforms for sustained collaboration. This involves actively fostering a triple-helix partnership:
· The Public Sector sets the vision, regulates, and provides enabling infrastructure.
· The Private Sector drives investment, innovation, scale, and job creation.
· Academia and Civil Society contribute research, grassroots intelligence, independent oversight, and specialized implementation capacity.
This model distributes responsibility, leverages diverse expertise, and fosters innovative solutions—from public-private partnerships in infrastructure to tech-driven civic engagement platforms.
5. Human Capital Supremacy: The Ultimate Strategic Investment
A nation’s most valuable asset walks on two feet. Re-strategized leadership places a supreme, non-negotiable priority on developing human potential. For Nigeria and Africa, this demands a generational project:
· Revolutionizing Education: Curricula must be overhauled to foster critical thinking, digital literacy, STEM proficiency, and entrepreneurial mindset—skills for the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Investment in teacher training and educational infrastructure is paramount.
· Building a Preventive, Resilient Health System: Focus must shift from curative care in central hospitals to robust, accessible primary healthcare. A healthy population is a productive population, forming the basis of economic resilience.
· Creating an Enabling Environment for Talent: Beyond education and health, leadership must provide the ecosystem where talent can thrive: reliable electricity, ubiquitous broadband, access to venture capital, and a regulatory environment that encourages innovation and protects intellectual property. The goal is to make the domestic environment more attractive than the diaspora for the continent’s best minds.
6. Assertive, Strategic Engagement in Global Affairs
African leadership must shed any vestiges of a supplicant mentality and adopt a posture of strategic agency. This means actively shaping continental and global agendas:
· Leveraging the AfCFTA: Moving beyond signing agreements to actively dismantling non-tariff barriers, harmonizing standards, and investing in cross-border infrastructure to turn the agreement into a real engine of intra-African trade and industrialization.
· Diplomacy for Value Creation: Foreign policy should be strategically deployed to attract sustainable foreign direct investment, secure technology transfer agreements, and build partnerships based on mutual benefit, not aid dependency.
· Advocacy for Structural Reform: African leaders must collectively and persistently advocate for reforms in global financial institutions and multilateral forums to ensure a more equitable international system.
The Nigerian Imperative: From National Challenges to a National Charter
Applying this framework to Nigeria requires translating universal principles into specific, context-driven actions:
· Integrated Security as a Foundational Priority: Security strategy must be comprehensive, blending advanced intelligence capabilities, professionalized security forces, with parallel investments in community policing, youth employment programs in high-risk areas, and accelerated development to address the root causes of instability.
· A Determined Pursuit of Economic Complexity: Leadership must orchestrate a decisive shift from rent-seeking in the oil sector to value creation across diversified sectors: commercialized agriculture, light and advanced manufacturing, a thriving creative industry, and a dominant digital services sector.
· Constitutional and Governance Re-engineering: To harness its diversity, Nigeria requires a sincere national conversation on restructuring. This likely entails moving towards a more authentic federalism with greater fiscal autonomy for states, devolution of powers, and mechanisms that ensure equitable resource distribution and inclusive political representation.
· Pioneering a Just Energy Transition: Nigeria must craft a unique energy pathway—strategically utilizing its gas resources for domestic industrialization and power generation, while simultaneously positioning itself as a regional hub for renewable energy technology, investment, and innovation.
Conclusion: A Collective Endeavor of Audacious Hope
Re-strategizing leadership in Africa and in Nigeria is not an event, but a generational process. It is not the abandonment of culture but its evolution—melding the deep African traditions of community, consensus, and elder wisdom with the modern imperatives of transparency, innovation, and individual rights. This task extends far beyond the political class. It is a summons to a new generation of leaders in every sphere: the tech entrepreneur in Yaba, the reform-minded civil servant in Abuja, the agri-preneur in Kebbi, the investigative journalist in Lagos, and the community activist in the Niger Delta.
Ultimately, this is an endeavor of audacious hope. It is the conscious choice to build systems stronger than individuals, institutions more enduring than terms of office, and a national identity richer than our ethnic sum. Nigeria possesses all the requisite raw materials for greatness: human brilliance, cultural richness, and natural bounty. The final, indispensable ingredient is a leadership strategy worthy of its people. The blueprint is now detailed; the call to action is urgent. The future awaits not our complaints, but our constructive and courageous labor. Let the work begin in earnest.
Dr. Tolulope A. Adegoke is a globally recognized scholar-practitioner and thought leader at the nexus of security, governance, and strategic leadership. His work addresses complex institutional challenges, with a specialized focus on West African security dynamics, conflict resolution, and sustainable development.
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Opinion
Rivers State: Two Monkeys Burn the Village to Prove They Are Loyal to Jagaban
Published
1 week agoon
January 7, 2026By
Eric
By Sly Edaghese
Teaser
Rivers State is not collapsing by accident. It is being offered as a sacrifice. Two men, driven by fear of irrelevance and hunger for protection, have chosen spectacle over stewardship—setting fire to a whole people’s future just to prove who kneels better before power.
There comes a point when a political tragedy degenerates into farce, and the farce mutates into a curse. Rivers State has crossed that point. What is unfolding there is not governance, not even conflict—it is ritual madness, a grotesque contest in which two men are willing to burn an entire state just to be noticed by one man sitting far away in Abuja.
This is not ambition.
This is desperation wearing designer jacket.
At the center of this inferno stand two performers who have mistaken power for immortality and loyalty for slavery. One is a former god. The other is a former servant. Both are now reduced to naked dancers in a marketplace, grinding their teeth and tearing flesh to entertain Jagaban.
The first is Nyesom Wike—once feared, once untouchable, now frantic. A man whose political identity has collapsed into noise, threats, and recycled bravado. His ministerial appointment was never a validation of statesmanship; it was a severance package for betrayal. Tinubu did not elevate Wike because he admired him—he tolerated him because he was useful. And usefulness, in politics, is key, but it has an expiry date.
Wike governed Rivers State not as a public trust but as a private estate. He did not build institutions; he built dependencies. He did not groom leaders; he bred loyalists. Before leaving office, he salted the land with his men—lawmakers, commissioners, council chairmen—so that even in absence, Rivers State would still answer to his shadow. His obsession was simple and sick: if I cannot rule it, no one else must.
Enter Siminalayi Fubara—a man selected, not tested; installed, not trusted by the people but trusted by his maker. Fubara was meant to be an invisible power in a visible office—a breathing signature, a ceremonial governor whose only real duty was obedience.
But power has a way of awakening even the most timid occupant.
Fubara wanted to act like a governor. That single desire triggered a full-scale political assassination attempt—not with bullets, but with institutions twisted into weapons. A state of emergency was declared with obscene haste. The governor was suspended like a naughty schoolboy. His budget was butchered. His local government elections were annulled and replaced with a pre-arranged outcome favorable to his tormentor. Lawmakers who defected and lost their seats by constitutional law were resurrected like political zombies and crowned legitimate.
This was not law.
This was organized humiliation.
And when degradation alone failed, Wike went further—dragging Fubara into a room to sign an agreement that belonged more to a slave plantation than a democratic republic.
One clause alone exposed the rot:
👉 Fubara must never seek a second term.
In plain language: you may warm the chair, but you will never own it.
Then came the most revealing act of all—Wike leaked the agreement himself. A man so intoxicated by dominance that he thought publicizing oppression would strengthen his grip.
That leak was not strategy; it was confession. It told Nigerians that this was never about peace, order, or party discipline—it was about absolute control over another human being.
But history has a cruel sense of humor.
While Wike strutted like a victorious warlord and his loyal lawmakers sharpened new knives, Fubara did something dangerous: he adapted. He studied power where it truly resides. He learned Tinubu’s language—the language of survival, alignment, and betrayal without apology. Then he did what Nigerian politics rewards most:
He crossed over.
Not quietly. Not shamefully. But theatrically. He defected to the APC, raised a party card numbered 001 and crowned himself leader of the party in Rivers State. He pledged to deliver the same Rivers people to Tinubu just as Wike also has pledged.
That moment was not boldness.
It was cold-blooded realism.
And in one stroke, Wike’s myth collapsed.
The once-feared enforcer became a shouting relic—touring local governments like a prophet nobody believes anymore, issuing warnings that land on deaf ears, reminding Nigerians of favors that no longer matter. He threatened APC officials, cursed betrayal, and swore eternal vengeance. But vengeance without access is just noise.
Today, the humiliation is complete.
Fubara enters rooms Wike waits outside.
Presidential aides shake hands with the new alignment.
The old king rants in press conferences, sounding increasingly like a man arguing with a locked door.
And yet, the darkest truth remains: neither of these men cares about Rivers State.
One is fighting to remain relevant.
The other is fighting to remain protected.
The people—the markets, the schools, the roads, the civil servants—are expendable extras in a drama scripted far above their heads.
Some say Tinubu designed this blood sport—unable to discard Wike outright, he simply unleashed his creation against him. Whether genius or negligence, the effect is the same: Rivers State is being eaten alive by ambition.
This is what happens when politics loses shame.
This is what happens when loyalty replaces competence.
This is what happens when leaders treat states like bargaining chips and citizens like ashes.
Two monkeys are burning the village—not to save it, not to rule it—but to prove who can scream loudest while it burns.
And Jagaban watches, hands folded.
But when the fire dies down, when the music stops, when the applause fades, there will be nothing left to govern—only ruins, regret, and two exhausted dancers staring at the ashes, finally realizing that power does not clap forever.
Sly Edaghese sent in this piece from Wisconsin, USA.
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By Pelumi Olajengbesi Esq.
Every student of politics should now be interested in what will be the end of Wike. Wike is one of those names that mean different things to different people within Nigeria’s political culture. To his admirers, he is courage and capacity, to his critics, he is disruption and excess, and to neutral observers like me, he is simply a fascinating case study in the mechanics of power.
In many ways, he was instrumental to the emergence of President Tinubu, and he has long sat like a lord over the politics of Rivers, having pushed aside nearly every person who once mattered in that space. He waged war against his party, the PDP, and drove it to the edge. Wike waged war against his successor and reduced him to submission. He fights anyone who stands in his way.
He is powerful, loved by many, and deeply irritating to many others. Yet for all his strength, one suspects that Wike does not enjoy peace of mind, because before he is done with one fight, another fight is already forming. From Rivers to Ibadan, Abuja to Imo, and across the country, he is the only right man in his own way. He is constantly in motion, constantly in battle, and constantly singing “agreement is agreement,” while forgetting that politics is merely negotiation and renegotiation.
To his credit, Wike may often be the smartest political planner in every room. He reads everybody’s next move and still creates a countermove. In that self image, Governor Fubara was meant to remain on a leash, manageable through pressure, inducement, and the suggestion that any disobedience would be framed as betrayal of the President and the new federal order.
But politics has a way of punishing anyone who believes control is permanent. The moment Fubara joined the APC, the battlefield shifted, and old tricks began to lose their edge. Whether by real alignment, perceived alignment, or even the mere possibility of a different alignment, once Fubara was no longer boxed into the corner Wike designed for him, Wike’s entire method required review. The fight may remain, but the terrain has changed. When terrain changes, power must either adapt or harden into miscalculation.
It is within this context that the gradually brewing crisis deserves careful attention, because what is emerging is not merely another loud exchange, but a visible clash with vital stakeholders within the Tinubu government and the wider ruling party environment. There is now a fixed showdown with the APC National Secretary, a man who is himself not allergic to confrontation, and who understands that a fight, if properly timed, can yield political advantage, institutional relevance, and bargaining power. When such a figure publicly demands that Nyesom Wike should resign as a minister in Tinubu’s cabinet, it is not a joke, It is about who is permitted to exercise influence, in what space, and on what terms. It is also about the anxiety that follows every coalition built on convenience rather than shared identity, because convenience has no constitution and gratitude is not a structure.
Wike embodies that anxiety in its most dramatic form. He is a man inside government, but not fully inside the party that controls government. He is a man whose usefulness to a winning project is undeniable, yet whose political style constantly reminds the winners that he is not naturally theirs. In every ruling party, there is a crucial difference between allies and stakeholders. Allies help you win, and stakeholders own the structure that decides who gets what after victory. Wike’s problem is that he has operated like both. His support for Tinubu, and his capacity to complicate the opposition’s arithmetic, gave him relevance at the centre. That relevance always tempts a man to behave like a co-owner.
Wike has built his political life on the logic of territorial command. He defines the space, polices the gate, punishes disloyalty, rewards submission, and keeps opponents permanently uncertain. That method is brutally effective when a man truly owns and controls the structure, because it produces fear, and fear produces compliance. This is why Wike insists on controlling the Rivers equation, even when that insistence conflicts with the preferences of the national centre.
The APC leadership is not reacting only to words. It is reacting to what the words represent. When a minister speaks as though a state chapter of the ruling party should be treated like a guest in that state’s politics, the party reads it as an attempt to subordinate its internal structure to an external will. Even where the party has tolerated Wike because of what he helped deliver, it cannot tolerate a situation where its own officials begin to look over their shoulders for permission from a man who is not formally one of them. Once a party believes its chain of command is being bypassed, it will choose institutional survival over interpersonal loyalty every time.
Wike’s predicament is the classic risk of power without full institutional belonging. Informal influence can be louder than formal power, but it is also more fragile because it depends on continuous tolerance from those who control formal instruments. These instruments include party hierarchy, candidate selection, and the legitimacy that comes with membership.
An outsider ally can be celebrated while he is useful, but the coalition that celebrates him can begin to step away the moment his methods create more cost than value. The cost is not only electoral, it can also be organisational. A ruling party approaching the next political cycle becomes sensitive to discipline, structure, and coherence. If the leadership suspects that one person’s shadow is creating factions, confusing loyalties, or humiliating party officials, it will attempt to cut that shadow down. It may not do so because it hates the person, but because it fears the disorder and the precedent.
So the question returns with greater urgency, what will be the end of Wike? If it comes, it may not come with fireworks. Strongmen often do not fall through one decisive attack. They are slowly redesigned out of relevance. The end can look like isolation, with quiet withdrawal of access, gradual loss of influence over appointments, and the emergence of new centres of power within the same territory he once treated as private estate. It can look like neutralisation, with Wike remaining in office, but watching the political value of the office drain because the presidency and the party no longer need his battles. It can look like forced realignment, with him compelled to fully submit to the ruling party structure, sacrificing the freedom of being an independent ally, or losing the cover that federal power provides.
Yet it is also possible that his story does not end in collapse, because Wike is not a novice. The same instinct that made him influential can also help him survive if he adapts. But adaptation would require a difficult shift. It would require a move from territorial warfare to coalition management. It would require a move from ruling by fear to ruling by accommodation. It would require a move from being merely feared to being structurally useful without becoming structurally threatening. Wike may be running out of time.
Pelumi Olajengbesi is a Legal Practitioner and Senior Partner at Law Corridor
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