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Panorama: 2023: Khalipha Muhammadu Sanusi II and Overwhelming Political Influence

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By Sani Sa’idu Baba

My dear country men and women, permit me to begin in earnest today, with a strong confession, which dwells on the influence of the revered and influential royal father, HRH Khalipha Muhammadu Sanusi II (CON), who doubles as the leader of the Tijjaniyya Sufi order in Nigeria, bestowed on him by one of the most respected Islamic leaders in the world.

My confession is not because he is a politician, but he is a factor in the political equation of Nigeria come 2023. Perhaps, some people especially my dear brothers and sisters from the South might not know the magnanimity and influential capacity of the position he occupies in addition to his existing pedigree and value that has made him unique.

In fact, as a leader of the Tijjaniyya sect of Nigeria’s Sufi Muslim community, Sanusi is now the second-most-important and most respected Islamic leader in Nigeria after the Sultan of Sokoto. My opinion today is due to several reasons rolled into one. You will discover why in a jiffy.

But the topic has to do with the recent discussion that I had with a patient, Malam Abdullahi Maikano who I later got to know was a chief servant of the late Emir Khalipha Muhammadu Sanusi I in his Wudil palace where he lived. He was narrating how Wudil-Maiduguri road became extremely busy, especially when he was appointed the Khalipha due to the large number of different sets of people visiting him on daily basis, and the influence he had in almost every aspects of life of the people of Kano, and the members of the Tijjaniyya Sufi order in Nigeria.

As he was narrating, I was reflecting on the historical repetition that happened and the one about to occur with his protégé, his grandson HRH Khalipha Muhammad Sanusi II. And that informed my writeup today.

Before I go into my primary focus today, let me introduce briefly the history of Tijjaniyya Sufi order in Nigeria. It is a Sufi Muslim order that is distinguished by the simplicity of its followers, the premium placed on the virtue of tolerance, and the religious scholarship and promotion of education by its founder, Shaykh Ahmad Tijjani, and succeeded by Sheikh Ibrahim Niass (1902-1975), who maintained its core values and mission. These attributes have given the Niassene Tijjaniyya a degree of flexibility and openness to innovation that is lacking among more conservative branches of Sufism and many other forms of Islam. The Tijjaniyya Ibrahimiyya is now the largest and fastest growing Sufi religious order in Nigeria. The logic that informs the behavior of Tijjani religious leaders as they interact with other Muslim groups, compete for religious followers, and engage the state in a pluralistic political arena, is subtle and complex. Shaykh Ahmad Tijjani, the founder of the Tijjaniyya Sufi order between 1809 and 1815CE predicted that Divine flood would occur on his Sufi disciples when people would be joining his Sufi order in multiples. Today, the number of Tijjaniyya Sufi order followers in Nigeria has been estimated to be about fifty millions, dispersed across every nooks and crannies of Northern part of the country and the South especially Southwestern part Yoruba dominant region of the country. The implication is that, at a certain period of time, someone among the Tijjaniyya members would emerge as the Flag-bearer of the divine flood. Through him, people of multifarious backgrounds would be embracing the Tijjaniyya order. In 1929, Shaykh Ibrahim Inyass made proclamation of the status, Flag-bearer of the divine flood and a Khalipha (successor) of Shaykh Ahmad Tijjani.

He made the proclamation during the annual maulud celebration of his father’s family at a village called Kosi near Kaolack (Kaulaha) in the Republic of Senegal. He was eventually recognized by the people as such, to the extent that the leadership of the Central Zawiyah of the Tijaniyyah in Fez, Morocco under the headship of Sayyid Abdus-Salam Sayyid in 1930s went to Kaolack, Senegal on a homage visit where all the insignia of office of Khilafah were submitted to him. These include a walking stick, a pair of sandals, a book of special prayers and awrād. Through the invitation of Emir of Kano, Al-hajj Abdullahi Bayero, Shaykh Ibrahim visited Kano, Nigeria for the first time in 1937. Although, Rüdiger Seesemann suggests that the visit took place in 1945. Whatever may be the date of the visit, the Tijaniyyah Sufi order through Shaykh Ibrahim Inyass spread from Kano to other cities in Nigeria.

We could recall that, many Nigerians of all faiths cheered in June 2014 when Sanusi was chosen to become the Emir of one of the country’s largest cities, to succeed his great uncle, the late Emir Ado Abdullahi Bayero. Six months earlier, he had clashed with former President Goodluck Jonathan after he questioned and adamantly insisted on the missing oil money. Emir Sanusi’s antecedents seems to be a reoccurrence of history. His grandfather, Emir (Sir) Muhammad Sanusi I was also dethroned by Sir Ahmadu Bello in the year 1963 as a result of power tussle between them, same way that his grandson was after 57 years by Governor Abdullahi Ganduje, a situation that many believed from the perspective of the fact that the Sanusi’s family has always been stand for the truth irrespective of that might cause them. You can imagine someone sacrificing one of the most prestigious royal sit in Nigeria, just to maintain his legacy of being honest and truthful? That was when Emir Muhammad Sanusi I, was appointed the Khalipha of Tijjaniyya Sufi order of the whole country after his dethronement as the Emir of Kano in 1963. It was after his death that the late Alhaji Isyaka Rabiu, the father of Abdussamad Isyaka Rabiu succeeded Emir Sanusi Lamido’s grandfather to occupy the high position as the Khalipha. This is exactly where the history has done its part, by repeating itself on the historic emergence of Sanusi as the substantive Khalipha in May, 2021. There were lot of rumors surrounding the issue before his appointment, only to discover that some of his detractors were doing all they could to halt the occurrence of the inevitable. One thing they failed to understand is that, greatness is inherent. When one door closes, another one immediately opens, probably a much better one.

Let me comeback to my primary focus of today. I am not the first and I will not be the last to demonstrate the influential potential and capacity of HRH Khalipha Sanusi Lamido Sanusi II. His uncommon pedigree and reputations has sold him beyond Nigeria, Africa but the world at large. In 2011, New York based Time Magazine has named him in the 2011 TIME 100, the magazine’s annual list of the most influential people in the world when he was the Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria. The full list and related attributes appear in the May 2 issue of the magazine. The Time 100 list recognizes the innovation, activism and achievement of the world’s most influential individuals. According to TIME Managing Editor, Richard Stengel; “The TIME 100 is not a list of the most powerful people in the world, it’s not a list of the smartest people in the world, it is a list of the most influential people in the world. They’re scientists, thinkers, philosophers, leaders, icons and visionaries; people who are using their ideas, their visions and their actions to transform the world and have an effect on a multitude of people.” Sanusi Lamido Sanusi, who can easily be described by any of these attributes, was named to the 2011 TIME 100 list alongside world renowned Nobel Laurel in Economics, Prof. Joseph Stiglitz, the German Chancellor Angela Merkel, U.S. President, Barack Obama, British Prime Minister, David Cameron, U.S. Secretary of State, Hilary Clinton, Lionel Messi, FIFA Footballer of the year among others.

This is the second time in the history of the TIME 100 that a Nigerian is named, and Sanusi is one of the only two Africans to have made the then list. It will come as no surprise to those, both at home and abroad, who have come to respect Sanusi’s astute, conscientious and courageous leadership of the Central Bank of Africa’s most populous nation, at a time when the sector required tough and decisive intervention. His vision and actions earned him the reputation as one of the most respected and authoritative voices on financial and economic matters on the continent, including a special invitation in November 2010 by the US Congressional Sub-Committee on International Monetary Policy and Trade, to give testimony at a congressional hearing titled “The Global Financial Crisis and Financial Reforms in Nigeria.” In January 2011, Sanusi was named African and Global Central Bank Governor of the Year by the Banker Magazine, a publication of the Financial Times.
This time around it will not be any different I believe. Many people thinks that the victory of APC in Kano during the 2015 presidential election was only attributed to the then Kano State Governor, Engr Dr Rabiu Kwankwaso only. Although he played a significant role in the polity, but I strongly believe that one factor had immensely helped in securing the victory. We could recall that, just before the elections, there was bomb blast in the Kano State central mosque on November 28, a mosque that is located in the emir’s palace. The tragic event had claimed many lives and left many injured. From that day, a lot of people decided that they would never come out to exercise their franchise due to the fear of similar attacks and rumors of reoccurrence. Because it seems the insurgents were just at the midst of the people at the time. Suddenly, Emir Sanusi climbed a pulpit and miraculously reversed the decision of most of the people on exercising their franchise just a day to the election. That had contributed immensely to the massive victory of the opposition. But let me make it categorically clear that he did not asked his people to specifically vote for this or to reject that because our Emir is not a politician. Many has misinterpreted a legacy standing for the truth as being political opposition, certainly no. This is exactly what happened in 2019 when Emir Sanusi stood firmly with the people and insisted that justice be adhered to, to ensure peace reign. A situation that consequently metamorphosed into what has culminated to led to his unjust removal, which is not the focus of my piece, but a different topic for another day.

Another issue that justifies my assertion on the inevitable influence of Khalipha Sanusi on the fate of political aspirants at both states and national level is the uncommon loyalty of the millions of members of the Tijjaniyya Sufi order that he now leads in Nigeria. The usual norm is that both leaders and followers of the movement does not associate themselves with politics and politicians at whatever level. But as one that belongs to the sect, I must confess that the dynamic nature of the situation will certainly reshape how it goes, especially in the next coming election. In recent times, millions of members reversed the longstanding practice of remaining aloof from politics and are actively ready to showcase their loyalty to Khalipha at all levels of government in Nigeria should he indicate directly or indirectly where he prefers. But everyone knows that his love for good governance is non-negotiable, and that he always supports at all levels that he attained in his carrier. His recently launched book, titled for the good of the nation is indeed a must read. He is probably the first Nigerian to have ever embarked on the commendable massive fund raising for girls child education in Nigeria, and that could not be unrelated to his uncommon influence. He cut across almost every tribe and every religion in Nigeria. He’s a true unifier. When he was in Kano, uncountable number of Nigerians from every nooks and crannies of Nigeria visited him. And its the same today. The influx of people from the North to his Lagos residence is overwhelmingly high, not to talk of when he comes to Kaduna. That was even before he became the Khalipha. You can imagine millions of people waiting for his directives! I am not saying HRH Khalipha can give power. Only GOD does. But we must confess that GOD has equipped him to be influential enough to change narratives. Period.

Sani Sa’idu Baba writes from Kano, and can reached via drssbaba@yahoo.com

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Opinion

Reimagining the African Leadership Paradigm: A Comprehensive Blueprint

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By Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD

“To lead Africa forward is to move from transactional authority to transformational stewardship—where institutions outlive individuals, data informs vision, and service is the only valid currency of governance” – Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD

The narrative of African leadership in the 21st century stands at a critical intersection of profound potential and persistent paradox. The continent, pulsating with the world’s youngest demographic and endowed with immense natural wealth, nonetheless contends with systemic challenges that stifle its ascent. This divergence between capacity and outcome signals not merely a failure of policy, but a deeper crisis of leadership philosophy and practice. As the global order undergoes seismic shifts, the imperative for African nations to fundamentally re-strategize their approach to governance has transitioned from an intellectual exercise to an existential necessity. Nigeria, by virtue of its demographic heft, economic scale, and cultural influence, serves as the continent’s most significant crucible for this transformation. The journey of Nigerian leadership from its current state to its potential apex offers a blueprint not only for its own 200 million citizens but for an entire continent in search of a new compass.

Deconstructing the Legacy Model: A Diagnosis of Systemic Failure

To construct a resilient future, we must first undertake an unflinching diagnosis of the present. The prevailing leadership archetype across much of Africa, with clear manifestations in Nigeria’s political economy, is built upon a foundation that has proven tragically unfit for purpose. This model is characterized by several interlocking dysfunctions:

·         The Primacy of Transactional Politics Over Transformational Vision: Governance has too often been reduced to a complex system of transactions—votes exchanged for short-term patronage, positions awarded for loyalty over competence, and resource allocation serving political expediency rather than national strategy. This erodes public trust and makes long-term, cohesive planning impossible.

·         The Tyranny of the Short-Term Electoral Cycle: Leadership decisions are frequently held hostage to the next election, sacrificing strategic investments in education, infrastructure, and industrialization on the altar of immediate, visible—yet fleeting—gains. This creates a perpetual cycle of reactive governance, preventing the execution of decade-spanning national projects.

·         Administrative Silos and Bureaucratic Inertia: Government ministries and agencies often operate as isolated fiefdoms, with limited inter-departmental collaboration. This siloed approach fragments policy implementation, leads to contradictory initiatives, and renders the state apparatus inefficient and unresponsive to complex, cross-sectoral challenges like climate change, public health, and national security.

·         The Demographic Disconnect: Africa’s most potent asset is its youth. Yet, a vast governance gap separates a dynamic, digitally-native, and globally-aware generation from political structures that remain opaque, paternalistic, and slow to adapt. This disconnect fuels alienation, brain drain, and social unrest.

·         The Weakness of Institutions and the Cult of Personality: When the strength of a state is vested in individuals rather than institutions, it creates systemic vulnerability. Independent judiciaries, professional civil services, and credible electoral commissions are weakened, leading to arbitrariness in the application of law, erosion of meritocracy, and a deep-seated crisis of public confidence.

The tangible outcomes of this flawed model are the headlines that define the continent’s challenges: infrastructure deficits that strangle commerce, public education and healthcare systems in states of distress, jobless economic growth, multifaceted security threats, and the chronic hemorrhage of human capital. To re-strategize leadership is to directly address these outputs by redesigning the very system that produces them.

Pillars of a Reformed Leadership Architecture: A Holistic Framework

The new leadership paradigm must be constructed not as a minor adjustment, but as a holistic architectural endeavor. It requires foundational pillars that are interdependent, mutually reinforcing, and built to endure beyond political transitions.

1. The Philosophical Core: Embracing Servant-Leadership and Ethical Stewardship
The most profound change must be internal—a recalibration of the leader’s fundamental purpose. The concept of the leader as a benevolent “strongman” must give way to the model of the servant-leader. This philosophy, rooted in both timeless African communal values (ubuntu) and modern ethical governance, posits that the true leader exists to serve the people, not vice versa. It is characterized by deep empathy, radical accountability, active listening, and a commitment to empowering others. Success is measured not by the leader’s personal accumulation of power or wealth, but by the tangible flourishing, security, and expanded opportunities of the citizenry. This ethos fosters trust, the essential currency of effective governance.

2. Strategic Foresight and Evidence-Based Governance
Leadership must be an exercise in building the future, not just administering the present. This requires the collaborative development of a clear, compelling, and inclusive national vision—a strategic narrative that aligns the energies of government, private sector, and civil society. For Nigeria, frameworks like Nigeria’s Agenda 2050 and the National Development Plan must be de-politicized and treated as binding national covenants. Furthermore, in the age of big data, governance must transition from intuition-driven to evidence-based. This necessitates significant investment in data collection, analytics, and policy-informing research. Whether designing social safety nets, deploying security resources, or planning agricultural subsidies, decisions must be illuminated by rigorous data, ensuring efficiency, transparency, and measurable impact.

3. Institutional Fortification: Building the Enduring Pillars of State
A nation’s longevity and stability are directly proportional to the strength and independence of its institutions. Re-strategizing leadership demands an unwavering commitment to institutional architecture:

·         An Impervious Judiciary: The rule of law must be absolute, with a judicial system insulated from political and financial influence, guaranteeing justice for the powerful and the marginalized alike.

·         Electoral Integrity as Sacred Trust: Democratic legitimacy springs from credible elections. Investing in independent electoral commissions, transparent technology, and robust legal frameworks is non-negotiable for political stability.

·         A Re-professionalized Civil Service: The bureaucracy must be transformed into a merit-driven, technologically adept, and well-remunerated engine of state, shielded from the spoils system and empowered to implement policy effectively.

·         Robust, Transparent Accountability Ecosystems: Anti-corruption agencies require genuine operational independence, adequate funding, and protection. Complementing this, transparent public procurement platforms and mandatory asset declarations for public officials must become normalized practice.

4. Collaborative and Distributed Leadership: The Power of the Collective
The monolithic state cannot solve wicked problems alone. The modern leader must be a convener-in-chief, architecting platforms for sustained collaboration. This involves actively fostering a triple-helix partnership:

·         The Public Sector sets the vision, regulates, and provides enabling infrastructure.

·         The Private Sector drives investment, innovation, scale, and job creation.

·         Academia and Civil Society contribute research, grassroots intelligence, independent oversight, and specialized implementation capacity.
This model distributes responsibility, leverages diverse expertise, and fosters innovative solutions—from public-private partnerships in infrastructure to tech-driven civic engagement platforms.

5. Human Capital Supremacy: The Ultimate Strategic Investment
A nation’s most valuable asset walks on two feet. Re-strategized leadership places a supreme, non-negotiable priority on developing human potential. For Nigeria and Africa, this demands a generational project:

·         Revolutionizing Education: Curricula must be overhauled to foster critical thinking, digital literacy, STEM proficiency, and entrepreneurial mindset—skills for the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Investment in teacher training and educational infrastructure is paramount.

·         Building a Preventive, Resilient Health System: Focus must shift from curative care in central hospitals to robust, accessible primary healthcare. A healthy population is a productive population, forming the basis of economic resilience.

·         Creating an Enabling Environment for Talent: Beyond education and health, leadership must provide the ecosystem where talent can thrive: reliable electricity, ubiquitous broadband, access to venture capital, and a regulatory environment that encourages innovation and protects intellectual property. The goal is to make the domestic environment more attractive than the diaspora for the continent’s best minds.

6. Assertive, Strategic Engagement in Global Affairs
African leadership must shed any vestiges of a supplicant mentality and adopt a posture of strategic agency. This means actively shaping continental and global agendas:

·         Leveraging the AfCFTA: Moving beyond signing agreements to actively dismantling non-tariff barriers, harmonizing standards, and investing in cross-border infrastructure to turn the agreement into a real engine of intra-African trade and industrialization.

·         Diplomacy for Value Creation: Foreign policy should be strategically deployed to attract sustainable foreign direct investment, secure technology transfer agreements, and build partnerships based on mutual benefit, not aid dependency.

·         Advocacy for Structural Reform: African leaders must collectively and persistently advocate for reforms in global financial institutions and multilateral forums to ensure a more equitable international system.

The Nigerian Imperative: From National Challenges to a National Charter

Applying this framework to Nigeria requires translating universal principles into specific, context-driven actions:

·         Integrated Security as a Foundational Priority: Security strategy must be comprehensive, blending advanced intelligence capabilities, professionalized security forces, with parallel investments in community policing, youth employment programs in high-risk areas, and accelerated development to address the root causes of instability.

·         A Determined Pursuit of Economic Complexity: Leadership must orchestrate a decisive shift from rent-seeking in the oil sector to value creation across diversified sectors: commercialized agriculture, light and advanced manufacturing, a thriving creative industry, and a dominant digital services sector.

·         Constitutional and Governance Re-engineering: To harness its diversity, Nigeria requires a sincere national conversation on restructuring. This likely entails moving towards a more authentic federalism with greater fiscal autonomy for states, devolution of powers, and mechanisms that ensure equitable resource distribution and inclusive political representation.

·         Pioneering a Just Energy Transition: Nigeria must craft a unique energy pathway—strategically utilizing its gas resources for domestic industrialization and power generation, while simultaneously positioning itself as a regional hub for renewable energy technology, investment, and innovation.

Conclusion: A Collective Endeavor of Audacious Hope

Re-strategizing leadership in Africa and in Nigeria is not an event, but a generational process. It is not the abandonment of culture but its evolution—melding the deep African traditions of community, consensus, and elder wisdom with the modern imperatives of transparency, innovation, and individual rights. This task extends far beyond the political class. It is a summons to a new generation of leaders in every sphere: the tech entrepreneur in Yaba, the reform-minded civil servant in Abuja, the agri-preneur in Kebbi, the investigative journalist in Lagos, and the community activist in the Niger Delta.

Ultimately, this is an endeavor of audacious hope. It is the conscious choice to build systems stronger than individuals, institutions more enduring than terms of office, and a national identity richer than our ethnic sum. Nigeria possesses all the requisite raw materials for greatness: human brilliance, cultural richness, and natural bounty. The final, indispensable ingredient is a leadership strategy worthy of its people. The blueprint is now detailed; the call to action is urgent. The future awaits not our complaints, but our constructive and courageous labor. Let the work begin in earnest.

Dr. Tolulope A. Adegoke is a globally recognized scholar-practitioner and thought leader at the nexus of security, governance, and strategic leadership. His work addresses complex institutional challenges, with a specialized focus on West African security dynamics, conflict resolution, and sustainable development.

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Opinion

Rivers State: Two Monkeys Burn the Village to Prove They Are Loyal to Jagaban

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By Sly Edaghese

Teaser

Rivers State is not collapsing by accident. It is being offered as a sacrifice. Two men, driven by fear of irrelevance and hunger for protection, have chosen spectacle over stewardship—setting fire to a whole people’s future just to prove who kneels better before power.

There comes a point when a political tragedy degenerates into farce, and the farce mutates into a curse. Rivers State has crossed that point. What is unfolding there is not governance, not even conflict—it is ritual madness, a grotesque contest in which two men are willing to burn an entire state just to be noticed by one man sitting far away in Abuja.

This is not ambition.

This is desperation wearing designer jacket.

At the center of this inferno stand two performers who have mistaken power for immortality and loyalty for slavery. One is a former god. The other is a former servant. Both are now reduced to naked dancers in a marketplace, grinding their teeth and tearing flesh to entertain Jagaban.

The first is Nyesom Wike—once feared, once untouchable, now frantic. A man whose political identity has collapsed into noise, threats, and recycled bravado. His ministerial appointment was never a validation of statesmanship; it was a severance package for betrayal. Tinubu did not elevate Wike because he admired him—he tolerated him because he was useful. And usefulness, in politics, is key, but it has an expiry date.

Wike governed Rivers State not as a public trust but as a private estate. He did not build institutions; he built dependencies. He did not groom leaders; he bred loyalists. Before leaving office, he salted the land with his men—lawmakers, commissioners, council chairmen—so that even in absence, Rivers State would still answer to his shadow. His obsession was simple and sick: if I cannot rule it, no one else must.

Enter Siminalayi Fubara—a man selected, not tested; installed, not trusted by the people but trusted by his maker. Fubara was meant to be an invisible power in a visible office—a breathing signature, a ceremonial governor whose only real duty was obedience.

But power has a way of awakening even the most timid occupant.

Fubara wanted to act like a governor. That single desire triggered a full-scale political assassination attempt—not with bullets, but with institutions twisted into weapons. A state of emergency was declared with obscene haste. The governor was suspended like a naughty schoolboy. His budget was butchered. His local government elections were annulled and replaced with a pre-arranged outcome favorable to his tormentor. Lawmakers who defected and lost their seats by constitutional law were resurrected like political zombies and crowned legitimate.

This was not law.

This was organized humiliation.

And when degradation alone failed, Wike went further—dragging Fubara into a room to sign an agreement that belonged more to a slave plantation than a democratic republic.

One clause alone exposed the rot:
👉 Fubara must never seek a second term.

In plain language: you may warm the chair, but you will never own it.

Then came the most revealing act of all—Wike leaked the agreement himself. A man so intoxicated by dominance that he thought publicizing oppression would strengthen his grip.

That leak was not strategy; it was confession. It told Nigerians that this was never about peace, order, or party discipline—it was about absolute control over another human being.

But history has a cruel sense of humor.

While Wike strutted like a victorious warlord and his loyal lawmakers sharpened new knives, Fubara did something dangerous: he adapted. He studied power where it truly resides. He learned Tinubu’s language—the language of survival, alignment, and betrayal without apology. Then he did what Nigerian politics rewards most:

He crossed over.

Not quietly. Not shamefully. But theatrically. He defected to the APC, raised a party card numbered 001 and crowned himself leader of the party in Rivers State. He pledged to deliver the same Rivers people to Tinubu just as Wike also has pledged.

That moment was not boldness.

It was cold-blooded realism.

And in one stroke, Wike’s myth collapsed.

The once-feared enforcer became a shouting relic—touring local governments like a prophet nobody believes anymore, issuing warnings that land on deaf ears, reminding Nigerians of favors that no longer matter. He threatened APC officials, cursed betrayal, and swore eternal vengeance. But vengeance without access is just noise.

Today, the humiliation is complete.

Fubara enters rooms Wike waits outside.

Presidential aides shake hands with the new alignment.

The old king rants in press conferences, sounding increasingly like a man arguing with a locked door.

And yet, the darkest truth remains: neither of these men cares about Rivers State.

One is fighting to remain relevant.

The other is fighting to remain protected.

The people—the markets, the schools, the roads, the civil servants—are expendable extras in a drama scripted far above their heads.

Some say Tinubu designed this blood sport—unable to discard Wike outright, he simply unleashed his creation against him. Whether genius or negligence, the effect is the same: Rivers State is being eaten alive by ambition.

This is what happens when politics loses shame.

This is what happens when loyalty replaces competence.

This is what happens when leaders treat states like bargaining chips and citizens like ashes.

Two monkeys are burning the village—not to save it, not to rule it—but to prove who can scream loudest while it burns.

And Jagaban watches, hands folded.

But when the fire dies down, when the music stops, when the applause fades, there will be nothing left to govern—only ruins, regret, and two exhausted dancers staring at the ashes, finally realizing that power does not clap forever.

Sly Edaghese sent in this piece from Wisconsin, USA.

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Opinion

What Will Be the End of Wike?

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By Pelumi Olajengbesi Esq.

Every student of politics should now be interested in what will be the end of Wike. Wike is one of those names that mean different things to different people within Nigeria’s political culture. To his admirers, he is courage and capacity, to his critics, he is disruption and excess, and to neutral observers like me, he is simply a fascinating case study in the mechanics of power.

In many ways, he was instrumental to the emergence of President Tinubu, and he has long sat like a lord over the politics of Rivers, having pushed aside nearly every person who once mattered in that space. He waged war against his party, the PDP, and drove it to the edge. Wike waged war against his successor and reduced him to submission. He fights anyone who stands in his way.

He is powerful, loved by many, and deeply irritating to many others. Yet for all his strength, one suspects that Wike does not enjoy peace of mind, because before he is done with one fight, another fight is already forming. From Rivers to Ibadan, Abuja to Imo, and across the country, he is the only right man in his own way. He is constantly in motion, constantly in battle, and constantly singing “agreement is agreement,” while forgetting that politics is merely negotiation and renegotiation.

To his credit, Wike may often be the smartest political planner in every room. He reads everybody’s next move and still creates a countermove. In that self image, Governor Fubara was meant to remain on a leash, manageable through pressure, inducement, and the suggestion that any disobedience would be framed as betrayal of the President and the new federal order.

But politics has a way of punishing anyone who believes control is permanent. The moment Fubara joined the APC, the battlefield shifted, and old tricks began to lose their edge. Whether by real alignment, perceived alignment, or even the mere possibility of a different alignment, once Fubara was no longer boxed into the corner Wike designed for him, Wike’s entire method required review. The fight may remain, but the terrain has changed. When terrain changes, power must either adapt or harden into miscalculation.

It is within this context that the gradually brewing crisis deserves careful attention, because what is emerging is not merely another loud exchange, but a visible clash with vital stakeholders within the Tinubu government and the wider ruling party environment. There is now a fixed showdown with the APC National Secretary, a man who is himself not allergic to confrontation, and who understands that a fight, if properly timed, can yield political advantage, institutional relevance, and bargaining power. When such a figure publicly demands that Nyesom Wike should resign as a minister in Tinubu’s cabinet, it is not a joke, It is about who is permitted to exercise influence, in what space, and on what terms. It is also about the anxiety that follows every coalition built on convenience rather than shared identity, because convenience has no constitution and gratitude is not a structure.

Wike embodies that anxiety in its most dramatic form. He is a man inside government, but not fully inside the party that controls government. He is a man whose usefulness to a winning project is undeniable, yet whose political style constantly reminds the winners that he is not naturally theirs. In every ruling party, there is a crucial difference between allies and stakeholders. Allies help you win, and stakeholders own the structure that decides who gets what after victory. Wike’s problem is that he has operated like both. His support for Tinubu, and his capacity to complicate the opposition’s arithmetic, gave him relevance at the centre. That relevance always tempts a man to behave like a co-owner.

Wike has built his political life on the logic of territorial command. He defines the space, polices the gate, punishes disloyalty, rewards submission, and keeps opponents permanently uncertain. That method is brutally effective when a man truly owns and controls the structure, because it produces fear, and fear produces compliance. This is why Wike insists on controlling the Rivers equation, even when that insistence conflicts with the preferences of the national centre.

The APC leadership is not reacting only to words. It is reacting to what the words represent. When a minister speaks as though a state chapter of the ruling party should be treated like a guest in that state’s politics, the party reads it as an attempt to subordinate its internal structure to an external will. Even where the party has tolerated Wike because of what he helped deliver, it cannot tolerate a situation where its own officials begin to look over their shoulders for permission from a man who is not formally one of them. Once a party believes its chain of command is being bypassed, it will choose institutional survival over interpersonal loyalty every time.

Wike’s predicament is the classic risk of power without full institutional belonging. Informal influence can be louder than formal power, but it is also more fragile because it depends on continuous tolerance from those who control formal instruments. These instruments include party hierarchy, candidate selection, and the legitimacy that comes with membership.

An outsider ally can be celebrated while he is useful, but the coalition that celebrates him can begin to step away the moment his methods create more cost than value. The cost is not only electoral, it can also be organisational. A ruling party approaching the next political cycle becomes sensitive to discipline, structure, and coherence. If the leadership suspects that one person’s shadow is creating factions, confusing loyalties, or humiliating party officials, it will attempt to cut that shadow down. It may not do so because it hates the person, but because it fears the disorder and the precedent.

So the question returns with greater urgency, what will be the end of Wike? If it comes, it may not come with fireworks. Strongmen often do not fall through one decisive attack. They are slowly redesigned out of relevance. The end can look like isolation, with quiet withdrawal of access, gradual loss of influence over appointments, and the emergence of new centres of power within the same territory he once treated as private estate. It can look like neutralisation, with Wike remaining in office, but watching the political value of the office drain because the presidency and the party no longer need his battles. It can look like forced realignment, with him compelled to fully submit to the ruling party structure, sacrificing the freedom of being an independent ally, or losing the cover that federal power provides.

Yet it is also possible that his story does not end in collapse, because Wike is not a novice. The same instinct that made him influential can also help him survive if he adapts. But adaptation would require a difficult shift. It would require a move from territorial warfare to coalition management. It would require a move from ruling by fear to ruling by accommodation. It would require a move from being merely feared to being structurally useful without becoming structurally threatening. Wike may be running out of time.

Pelumi Olajengbesi is a Legal Practitioner and Senior Partner at Law Corridor

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