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Opinion: As Nigerians Head to the Polls

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By Nkannebe Raymond

Once again, Nigeria is at a critical juncture in her democratic history while the rest of the world looks on with bated breath to see whether Africa’s largest democracy will sink or swim. As millions of Nigerians troop out to go and vote on Saturday, February 16th, it would be the sixth time they’ll be doing that in succession since democracy returned to the country in 1999. As with every general election, Nigerians will be voting in a new president as it’s constitution allows for only a four-year renewable tenure. The last time Nigerians went to the polls in 2015, they ended up with a new president, in the person of Muhammadu Buhari. He defeated his closest rival, the then incumbent president Goodluck Jonathan in a historical election that saw the first transition of power from an incumbent President to an opposition candidate. It was a golden moment for Nigerian democracy for too many reasons. Here and now again, the incumbent president is also on the ballot seeking re-election for what he says will allow him “consolidate on some of the achievements of his administration”. In clearly unmistakable terms, the president and his political party say a re-election for them will fossilize in their taking Nigeria to the “Next Level”.

Whereas numerous other candidates have indicated interest in the nation’s top political office namely Kingsley Moghalu of the Young Progressive Party (YPP); Fela Durotoye of the Alliance for New Nigeria (ANN); and Omoyele Sowore of the African Action Congress (AAC) to keep the list short, political realists are of the view that Saturday’s presidential contest is a two-horse race between incumbent president Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar─ the Waziri of Adamawa, of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Strikingly, both men share a lot in common: they belong to the old political class; they are septuagenarians and are also moslems of the Fulani stock. For a country with one of the largest youth population in the world, estimated at a staggering 60%, it rather leaves a sad taste in the mouth that the two leading contenders for her topmost political office are way above the average life expectancy of 52 years, and in a sense closer to their graves. “That is the contradiction of Nigeria, nay African politics”, a politically exposed friend tells me.

While a deluge of younger candidates averaging 40 years of age have also squared up to occupy the seat of the president, their campaigns have gained little or no traction among Nigerians in the corners of the country who constitute the highest voting bloc. Beyond their effective use of the social media to push their message, their campaigns have been less terrestrial. It appears these younger generation of Nigerian leaders will need a little more than a local legislation that pegs down the constitutional age to seek various elective office, to unseat the old leadership class. Jude Feranmi, a rising youth leader, tells me it will take a robust coalition of ‘mushroom’ political parties over time, to upset the current political apple cart in the country. But he’s pessimistic they’ll be able to do this.

For the candidate of the PDP Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, this is arguably his last opportunity to lead the country; a lifelong ambition which first came to national consciousness in 1992. At 72, it is inconceivable that he’ll be indicating any further interest in the sinecure by the next election cycle in 2023 when he’d have been 76, should he lose out on Saturday. With several attempts that came to nought in 2006; 2011 and 2015, he has never been in a good position to achieve this life long ambition as he is now, from what one can gather from the permutations here and there. He says he wants to get Nigeria Working Again. And will do that with the aid of a policy document he calls the “Atiku Plan”.

As a successful businessman and industrialist, the economy means a lot to him. He believes that with a performing economy, Nigerians can well again be on the path of prosperity. He wants to create jobs, and have cited the successes in his numerous business as the smoking gun of his capacity to do so for Nigeria’s teeming youth population as well as lift as many persons as possible out of poverty; of which Nigeria has since become it’s global capital as far as the findings of the Brooks Institution can be relied upon. But more importantly, he wants to restructure the country.

His campaigns have gained a lot of momentum with the outing in Kano, a perceived stronghold of candidate Muhammadu Buhari, last Sunday, sending shockwaves into the opposition camps. He’s however dogged by allegations of corruption around his person. His critics believe the source of his stupendous wealth are suspect and cannot be unconnected to appropriation of national assets in his capacity as the head of the National Economic Council while he served as vice president to former president Olusegun Obasanjo between 1999 and 2007. However, for all the allegations, no court of law has found him guilty neither has he been charged for any corrupt practices.

On the other side of the coin is incumbent president Muhammadu Buhari. In the period leading to the 2015 elections, he and his new party at the time had campaigned on a mantra of “Change”. It was a magical word that resonated with many Nigerians and which ended up in a victory for the party. Three and a half years down the line however, the fine details of the change has remained elusive to most Nigerians. Change was supposed to be felt in the fight against Corruption, a total turn around of the economy and improved national security. But his government has not quite delivered optimally on any of these fronts.

The much vaunted fight against Corruption has been dubbed by critics as one sided and without any coherence. Many believe the government deploys media trials and propaganda to push it’s avowed fight against corruption hence why it has not achieved any meaningful gain in that respect. It will appear that Nigeria’s performance in the recently released Global Corruption Perception Index corroborates these sentiments of the critics of the administration. While he has been able to guide the economy through recession, the economic numbers show that all is not well with the economy. With unemployment rate at its all time high as well as a ballooned debt profile rising to a whopping 22 Trillion Naira, the Nigerian economy it could be said is on autopilot. While the administration has tried to explain away these disturbing statistics and countering them with what they believe to be bold efforts at rejigging the Nigerian economy in a number of areas, the word on the street is that many Nigerians are not faring better than they did pre-2015.

The administration has also been caught flat footed in the security corridor. Shorn of the “technical defeat” of Boko Haram, little or nothing has been done to contain the war in the North East. Not long ago, a large number of school girls were ferried from their school in Dapchi, Borno State by the insurgents in a repeat of what happened in 2014 in Chibok. While most of the girls were released, one of the girls, Leah Sharibu remains in captivity. Late last year two relief workers of an international relief agency were beheaded by the splinter cell of the fundamentalists and in all, the administration has only issued statements reassuring decimation of the militants. Few days ago, the convoy of the Borno state governor, Kashim Shettima was attacked by the insurgents leading to the death of at least three persons.

Analysts are also of the view that quite apart from the fight against Boko Haram, the administration have also failed in the handling of security breaches elsewhere in the middle belt and North West where armed banditry has reached alarming proportions. Through and through, the security score card of the administration has been anything but impressive.
Outside the security front, critics of the administration believe that it has not been able to foster national unity and cohesion citing the administration’s somewhat strategic alienation of a section of the country in a skewed manner of political appointments that favour only the president’s kinsmen. The hierarchy of the legal community are of the view that this attitude of the president is far in excess of the Country’s Federal Character Principle sanctioned by the Constitution. Buhari counters this narrative however and says his appointment of persons to key governmental positions is informed by the appointee’s character and competence. A columnist of a leading newspaper tells me that no administration has polarized and divided the country along ethnic lines more than the Buhari administration.

A former military dictator, it has been difficult for the president to shed his military toga. His administration is characterised with a record of flouting court orders and disrespect for the rule of law. Last September, he told a conclave of lawyers in Abuja that the “rule of law must be subject to national security” and has blamed the rule of law for the slow pace of his anticorruption fight at different fora. Only recently, he sent the head of the judicial arm of government packing, through subterranean means against the grain of constitutionalism and rule of law.

His administration has however made some appreciable impact in improving the infrastructure deficit of the country and providing social welfare for the poorest of the poor through policies such as the School Feeding Programme, the N-power Scheme, the Growth Enterprise and Empowerment Programme (GEEP), and recently, the Trader-Money Scheme.

Critics however say these policies will achieve little or nothing in lifting people out of poverty, and have described the Trader-money scheme as a disguised way of voters’ inducement. These criticisms notwithstanding, the administration believes it is still popular and will win a landslide victory on Saturday.

Electoral violence and disruption of voting unfortunately has been a standard feature of Nigerian elections. The Electoral umpire, INEC has however reiterated that it will deliver a world class election this time. With about 84 million registered voters with the largest chunk of them in Lagos and Kano states, the commission says it is prepared to ensure a free, fair and transparent election in so far as other stakeholders in the process such as the political parties and the security agencies, play in accordance with the rules laid down by the law. Despite suffering some set backs in the last two weeks with fire outbreaks in three of its local offices in Abia, Anambra and Plateau states which destroyed election materials such as uncollected Permanent Voter Cards, the commission has remained unfazed and as at the time of this writing, already reprinted the burnt PVCs and inviting their owners to come get them. The chairman of the commission, Prof Mahmood Yakubu has never left anyone in doubt of the commission’s determination to midwife a rancour free election, and at a press conference last week in Abuja reiterated the commission’s resolve to be neutral and aloof throughout the process of the election and beyond. It remains however to be seen whether these words will be matched with actions.

Another sore feature of Nigerian elections is the extent of neutrality displayed by the security agencies at the various polling units. Nigeria is a unitary federal state where all federal government agencies including the security institutions have a tendency of subservience to the head of the federal arm who doubles as the Commander in Chief of the Armed Forces. Pundits believe that members of these security agencies have at various times been used by the ruling party to intimidate voters and supporters of opposition parties to enhance their chances at the ballot. At the recently held Ekiti and Osun gubernatorial elections, this ugly situation reared its ugly head. Both elections are today subjects of litigation at various courts.

Under the former Police Chief, Idris Kpotum; believed by many to be one of the most compromised officer to ever occupy the office, the conduct of the police, was anything but complimentary. However, there is a new sheriff in town, namely Mohammed Abubakar Adamu, who has told Nigerians that men and officers of the force will display the highest sense of professionalism and discharge their duties within the ambits set by the electoral law under his watch. Some 300,000 police men have been detailed to cover the exercise across the 119, 973 polling units comprised in the Country with support from the military, air force and other civil security outfit. There are concerns in some quaters however that this number is insufficient and might not be able to provide enough cover especially in the event of outbreak of violence. Already, flashpoint states such as Adamawa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Plateau, Kano, Kaduna and other parts of the North East have been isolated. These are states notorious for pre and post-election violence and thus would be needing more security cover to contain any outbreak of violence. One expects that the capacity of the security agencies won’t be stretched as they go into this important exercise.

Nigeria is an interesting country in many respects. 49 years after her civil war, she has always found a way to emerge from every political storm without bruises. In the lead up to the last 2015 polls, western interests had predicted that the country will engulf in a political crisis that might lead to its disintegration. Somehow, the country emerged from the elections even more united thanks to the statesmanship shown by the former president, Goodluck Jonathan. Nearly four years after that episode, she is once again at that critical juncture. Few days ago, a National Peace Committee headed by a former military Head of State and top cleric brought the two leading contenders as well as other presidential aspirants together to sign a peace accord where they made commitments to accept the result of the elections. In 2015, the committee played a very instrumental role in ensuring the presidential election was largely peaceful. Yet, whether this round of elections will derail or consolidate Nigeria’s gains on her democratic journey must bide the outcome of the polls.

For many Nigerians, what they want are the basic things of life: good drinking water; affordable healthcare and housing; good roads; improved security and a stable and productive economy. Saturday polls to a large extent will be a referendum on how the incumbent administration has performed in some, if not all of these critical indices.

Raymond Nkannebe is a Legal Practitioner

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Opinion

Reimagining the African Leadership Paradigm: A Comprehensive Blueprint

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By Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD

“To lead Africa forward is to move from transactional authority to transformational stewardship—where institutions outlive individuals, data informs vision, and service is the only valid currency of governance” – Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD

The narrative of African leadership in the 21st century stands at a critical intersection of profound potential and persistent paradox. The continent, pulsating with the world’s youngest demographic and endowed with immense natural wealth, nonetheless contends with systemic challenges that stifle its ascent. This divergence between capacity and outcome signals not merely a failure of policy, but a deeper crisis of leadership philosophy and practice. As the global order undergoes seismic shifts, the imperative for African nations to fundamentally re-strategize their approach to governance has transitioned from an intellectual exercise to an existential necessity. Nigeria, by virtue of its demographic heft, economic scale, and cultural influence, serves as the continent’s most significant crucible for this transformation. The journey of Nigerian leadership from its current state to its potential apex offers a blueprint not only for its own 200 million citizens but for an entire continent in search of a new compass.

Deconstructing the Legacy Model: A Diagnosis of Systemic Failure

To construct a resilient future, we must first undertake an unflinching diagnosis of the present. The prevailing leadership archetype across much of Africa, with clear manifestations in Nigeria’s political economy, is built upon a foundation that has proven tragically unfit for purpose. This model is characterized by several interlocking dysfunctions:

·         The Primacy of Transactional Politics Over Transformational Vision: Governance has too often been reduced to a complex system of transactions—votes exchanged for short-term patronage, positions awarded for loyalty over competence, and resource allocation serving political expediency rather than national strategy. This erodes public trust and makes long-term, cohesive planning impossible.

·         The Tyranny of the Short-Term Electoral Cycle: Leadership decisions are frequently held hostage to the next election, sacrificing strategic investments in education, infrastructure, and industrialization on the altar of immediate, visible—yet fleeting—gains. This creates a perpetual cycle of reactive governance, preventing the execution of decade-spanning national projects.

·         Administrative Silos and Bureaucratic Inertia: Government ministries and agencies often operate as isolated fiefdoms, with limited inter-departmental collaboration. This siloed approach fragments policy implementation, leads to contradictory initiatives, and renders the state apparatus inefficient and unresponsive to complex, cross-sectoral challenges like climate change, public health, and national security.

·         The Demographic Disconnect: Africa’s most potent asset is its youth. Yet, a vast governance gap separates a dynamic, digitally-native, and globally-aware generation from political structures that remain opaque, paternalistic, and slow to adapt. This disconnect fuels alienation, brain drain, and social unrest.

·         The Weakness of Institutions and the Cult of Personality: When the strength of a state is vested in individuals rather than institutions, it creates systemic vulnerability. Independent judiciaries, professional civil services, and credible electoral commissions are weakened, leading to arbitrariness in the application of law, erosion of meritocracy, and a deep-seated crisis of public confidence.

The tangible outcomes of this flawed model are the headlines that define the continent’s challenges: infrastructure deficits that strangle commerce, public education and healthcare systems in states of distress, jobless economic growth, multifaceted security threats, and the chronic hemorrhage of human capital. To re-strategize leadership is to directly address these outputs by redesigning the very system that produces them.

Pillars of a Reformed Leadership Architecture: A Holistic Framework

The new leadership paradigm must be constructed not as a minor adjustment, but as a holistic architectural endeavor. It requires foundational pillars that are interdependent, mutually reinforcing, and built to endure beyond political transitions.

1. The Philosophical Core: Embracing Servant-Leadership and Ethical Stewardship
The most profound change must be internal—a recalibration of the leader’s fundamental purpose. The concept of the leader as a benevolent “strongman” must give way to the model of the servant-leader. This philosophy, rooted in both timeless African communal values (ubuntu) and modern ethical governance, posits that the true leader exists to serve the people, not vice versa. It is characterized by deep empathy, radical accountability, active listening, and a commitment to empowering others. Success is measured not by the leader’s personal accumulation of power or wealth, but by the tangible flourishing, security, and expanded opportunities of the citizenry. This ethos fosters trust, the essential currency of effective governance.

2. Strategic Foresight and Evidence-Based Governance
Leadership must be an exercise in building the future, not just administering the present. This requires the collaborative development of a clear, compelling, and inclusive national vision—a strategic narrative that aligns the energies of government, private sector, and civil society. For Nigeria, frameworks like Nigeria’s Agenda 2050 and the National Development Plan must be de-politicized and treated as binding national covenants. Furthermore, in the age of big data, governance must transition from intuition-driven to evidence-based. This necessitates significant investment in data collection, analytics, and policy-informing research. Whether designing social safety nets, deploying security resources, or planning agricultural subsidies, decisions must be illuminated by rigorous data, ensuring efficiency, transparency, and measurable impact.

3. Institutional Fortification: Building the Enduring Pillars of State
A nation’s longevity and stability are directly proportional to the strength and independence of its institutions. Re-strategizing leadership demands an unwavering commitment to institutional architecture:

·         An Impervious Judiciary: The rule of law must be absolute, with a judicial system insulated from political and financial influence, guaranteeing justice for the powerful and the marginalized alike.

·         Electoral Integrity as Sacred Trust: Democratic legitimacy springs from credible elections. Investing in independent electoral commissions, transparent technology, and robust legal frameworks is non-negotiable for political stability.

·         A Re-professionalized Civil Service: The bureaucracy must be transformed into a merit-driven, technologically adept, and well-remunerated engine of state, shielded from the spoils system and empowered to implement policy effectively.

·         Robust, Transparent Accountability Ecosystems: Anti-corruption agencies require genuine operational independence, adequate funding, and protection. Complementing this, transparent public procurement platforms and mandatory asset declarations for public officials must become normalized practice.

4. Collaborative and Distributed Leadership: The Power of the Collective
The monolithic state cannot solve wicked problems alone. The modern leader must be a convener-in-chief, architecting platforms for sustained collaboration. This involves actively fostering a triple-helix partnership:

·         The Public Sector sets the vision, regulates, and provides enabling infrastructure.

·         The Private Sector drives investment, innovation, scale, and job creation.

·         Academia and Civil Society contribute research, grassroots intelligence, independent oversight, and specialized implementation capacity.
This model distributes responsibility, leverages diverse expertise, and fosters innovative solutions—from public-private partnerships in infrastructure to tech-driven civic engagement platforms.

5. Human Capital Supremacy: The Ultimate Strategic Investment
A nation’s most valuable asset walks on two feet. Re-strategized leadership places a supreme, non-negotiable priority on developing human potential. For Nigeria and Africa, this demands a generational project:

·         Revolutionizing Education: Curricula must be overhauled to foster critical thinking, digital literacy, STEM proficiency, and entrepreneurial mindset—skills for the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Investment in teacher training and educational infrastructure is paramount.

·         Building a Preventive, Resilient Health System: Focus must shift from curative care in central hospitals to robust, accessible primary healthcare. A healthy population is a productive population, forming the basis of economic resilience.

·         Creating an Enabling Environment for Talent: Beyond education and health, leadership must provide the ecosystem where talent can thrive: reliable electricity, ubiquitous broadband, access to venture capital, and a regulatory environment that encourages innovation and protects intellectual property. The goal is to make the domestic environment more attractive than the diaspora for the continent’s best minds.

6. Assertive, Strategic Engagement in Global Affairs
African leadership must shed any vestiges of a supplicant mentality and adopt a posture of strategic agency. This means actively shaping continental and global agendas:

·         Leveraging the AfCFTA: Moving beyond signing agreements to actively dismantling non-tariff barriers, harmonizing standards, and investing in cross-border infrastructure to turn the agreement into a real engine of intra-African trade and industrialization.

·         Diplomacy for Value Creation: Foreign policy should be strategically deployed to attract sustainable foreign direct investment, secure technology transfer agreements, and build partnerships based on mutual benefit, not aid dependency.

·         Advocacy for Structural Reform: African leaders must collectively and persistently advocate for reforms in global financial institutions and multilateral forums to ensure a more equitable international system.

The Nigerian Imperative: From National Challenges to a National Charter

Applying this framework to Nigeria requires translating universal principles into specific, context-driven actions:

·         Integrated Security as a Foundational Priority: Security strategy must be comprehensive, blending advanced intelligence capabilities, professionalized security forces, with parallel investments in community policing, youth employment programs in high-risk areas, and accelerated development to address the root causes of instability.

·         A Determined Pursuit of Economic Complexity: Leadership must orchestrate a decisive shift from rent-seeking in the oil sector to value creation across diversified sectors: commercialized agriculture, light and advanced manufacturing, a thriving creative industry, and a dominant digital services sector.

·         Constitutional and Governance Re-engineering: To harness its diversity, Nigeria requires a sincere national conversation on restructuring. This likely entails moving towards a more authentic federalism with greater fiscal autonomy for states, devolution of powers, and mechanisms that ensure equitable resource distribution and inclusive political representation.

·         Pioneering a Just Energy Transition: Nigeria must craft a unique energy pathway—strategically utilizing its gas resources for domestic industrialization and power generation, while simultaneously positioning itself as a regional hub for renewable energy technology, investment, and innovation.

Conclusion: A Collective Endeavor of Audacious Hope

Re-strategizing leadership in Africa and in Nigeria is not an event, but a generational process. It is not the abandonment of culture but its evolution—melding the deep African traditions of community, consensus, and elder wisdom with the modern imperatives of transparency, innovation, and individual rights. This task extends far beyond the political class. It is a summons to a new generation of leaders in every sphere: the tech entrepreneur in Yaba, the reform-minded civil servant in Abuja, the agri-preneur in Kebbi, the investigative journalist in Lagos, and the community activist in the Niger Delta.

Ultimately, this is an endeavor of audacious hope. It is the conscious choice to build systems stronger than individuals, institutions more enduring than terms of office, and a national identity richer than our ethnic sum. Nigeria possesses all the requisite raw materials for greatness: human brilliance, cultural richness, and natural bounty. The final, indispensable ingredient is a leadership strategy worthy of its people. The blueprint is now detailed; the call to action is urgent. The future awaits not our complaints, but our constructive and courageous labor. Let the work begin in earnest.

Dr. Tolulope A. Adegoke is a globally recognized scholar-practitioner and thought leader at the nexus of security, governance, and strategic leadership. His work addresses complex institutional challenges, with a specialized focus on West African security dynamics, conflict resolution, and sustainable development.

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Opinion

Rivers State: Two Monkeys Burn the Village to Prove They Are Loyal to Jagaban

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By Sly Edaghese

Teaser

Rivers State is not collapsing by accident. It is being offered as a sacrifice. Two men, driven by fear of irrelevance and hunger for protection, have chosen spectacle over stewardship—setting fire to a whole people’s future just to prove who kneels better before power.

There comes a point when a political tragedy degenerates into farce, and the farce mutates into a curse. Rivers State has crossed that point. What is unfolding there is not governance, not even conflict—it is ritual madness, a grotesque contest in which two men are willing to burn an entire state just to be noticed by one man sitting far away in Abuja.

This is not ambition.

This is desperation wearing designer jacket.

At the center of this inferno stand two performers who have mistaken power for immortality and loyalty for slavery. One is a former god. The other is a former servant. Both are now reduced to naked dancers in a marketplace, grinding their teeth and tearing flesh to entertain Jagaban.

The first is Nyesom Wike—once feared, once untouchable, now frantic. A man whose political identity has collapsed into noise, threats, and recycled bravado. His ministerial appointment was never a validation of statesmanship; it was a severance package for betrayal. Tinubu did not elevate Wike because he admired him—he tolerated him because he was useful. And usefulness, in politics, is key, but it has an expiry date.

Wike governed Rivers State not as a public trust but as a private estate. He did not build institutions; he built dependencies. He did not groom leaders; he bred loyalists. Before leaving office, he salted the land with his men—lawmakers, commissioners, council chairmen—so that even in absence, Rivers State would still answer to his shadow. His obsession was simple and sick: if I cannot rule it, no one else must.

Enter Siminalayi Fubara—a man selected, not tested; installed, not trusted by the people but trusted by his maker. Fubara was meant to be an invisible power in a visible office—a breathing signature, a ceremonial governor whose only real duty was obedience.

But power has a way of awakening even the most timid occupant.

Fubara wanted to act like a governor. That single desire triggered a full-scale political assassination attempt—not with bullets, but with institutions twisted into weapons. A state of emergency was declared with obscene haste. The governor was suspended like a naughty schoolboy. His budget was butchered. His local government elections were annulled and replaced with a pre-arranged outcome favorable to his tormentor. Lawmakers who defected and lost their seats by constitutional law were resurrected like political zombies and crowned legitimate.

This was not law.

This was organized humiliation.

And when degradation alone failed, Wike went further—dragging Fubara into a room to sign an agreement that belonged more to a slave plantation than a democratic republic.

One clause alone exposed the rot:
👉 Fubara must never seek a second term.

In plain language: you may warm the chair, but you will never own it.

Then came the most revealing act of all—Wike leaked the agreement himself. A man so intoxicated by dominance that he thought publicizing oppression would strengthen his grip.

That leak was not strategy; it was confession. It told Nigerians that this was never about peace, order, or party discipline—it was about absolute control over another human being.

But history has a cruel sense of humor.

While Wike strutted like a victorious warlord and his loyal lawmakers sharpened new knives, Fubara did something dangerous: he adapted. He studied power where it truly resides. He learned Tinubu’s language—the language of survival, alignment, and betrayal without apology. Then he did what Nigerian politics rewards most:

He crossed over.

Not quietly. Not shamefully. But theatrically. He defected to the APC, raised a party card numbered 001 and crowned himself leader of the party in Rivers State. He pledged to deliver the same Rivers people to Tinubu just as Wike also has pledged.

That moment was not boldness.

It was cold-blooded realism.

And in one stroke, Wike’s myth collapsed.

The once-feared enforcer became a shouting relic—touring local governments like a prophet nobody believes anymore, issuing warnings that land on deaf ears, reminding Nigerians of favors that no longer matter. He threatened APC officials, cursed betrayal, and swore eternal vengeance. But vengeance without access is just noise.

Today, the humiliation is complete.

Fubara enters rooms Wike waits outside.

Presidential aides shake hands with the new alignment.

The old king rants in press conferences, sounding increasingly like a man arguing with a locked door.

And yet, the darkest truth remains: neither of these men cares about Rivers State.

One is fighting to remain relevant.

The other is fighting to remain protected.

The people—the markets, the schools, the roads, the civil servants—are expendable extras in a drama scripted far above their heads.

Some say Tinubu designed this blood sport—unable to discard Wike outright, he simply unleashed his creation against him. Whether genius or negligence, the effect is the same: Rivers State is being eaten alive by ambition.

This is what happens when politics loses shame.

This is what happens when loyalty replaces competence.

This is what happens when leaders treat states like bargaining chips and citizens like ashes.

Two monkeys are burning the village—not to save it, not to rule it—but to prove who can scream loudest while it burns.

And Jagaban watches, hands folded.

But when the fire dies down, when the music stops, when the applause fades, there will be nothing left to govern—only ruins, regret, and two exhausted dancers staring at the ashes, finally realizing that power does not clap forever.

Sly Edaghese sent in this piece from Wisconsin, USA.

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Opinion

What Will Be the End of Wike?

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By Pelumi Olajengbesi Esq.

Every student of politics should now be interested in what will be the end of Wike. Wike is one of those names that mean different things to different people within Nigeria’s political culture. To his admirers, he is courage and capacity, to his critics, he is disruption and excess, and to neutral observers like me, he is simply a fascinating case study in the mechanics of power.

In many ways, he was instrumental to the emergence of President Tinubu, and he has long sat like a lord over the politics of Rivers, having pushed aside nearly every person who once mattered in that space. He waged war against his party, the PDP, and drove it to the edge. Wike waged war against his successor and reduced him to submission. He fights anyone who stands in his way.

He is powerful, loved by many, and deeply irritating to many others. Yet for all his strength, one suspects that Wike does not enjoy peace of mind, because before he is done with one fight, another fight is already forming. From Rivers to Ibadan, Abuja to Imo, and across the country, he is the only right man in his own way. He is constantly in motion, constantly in battle, and constantly singing “agreement is agreement,” while forgetting that politics is merely negotiation and renegotiation.

To his credit, Wike may often be the smartest political planner in every room. He reads everybody’s next move and still creates a countermove. In that self image, Governor Fubara was meant to remain on a leash, manageable through pressure, inducement, and the suggestion that any disobedience would be framed as betrayal of the President and the new federal order.

But politics has a way of punishing anyone who believes control is permanent. The moment Fubara joined the APC, the battlefield shifted, and old tricks began to lose their edge. Whether by real alignment, perceived alignment, or even the mere possibility of a different alignment, once Fubara was no longer boxed into the corner Wike designed for him, Wike’s entire method required review. The fight may remain, but the terrain has changed. When terrain changes, power must either adapt or harden into miscalculation.

It is within this context that the gradually brewing crisis deserves careful attention, because what is emerging is not merely another loud exchange, but a visible clash with vital stakeholders within the Tinubu government and the wider ruling party environment. There is now a fixed showdown with the APC National Secretary, a man who is himself not allergic to confrontation, and who understands that a fight, if properly timed, can yield political advantage, institutional relevance, and bargaining power. When such a figure publicly demands that Nyesom Wike should resign as a minister in Tinubu’s cabinet, it is not a joke, It is about who is permitted to exercise influence, in what space, and on what terms. It is also about the anxiety that follows every coalition built on convenience rather than shared identity, because convenience has no constitution and gratitude is not a structure.

Wike embodies that anxiety in its most dramatic form. He is a man inside government, but not fully inside the party that controls government. He is a man whose usefulness to a winning project is undeniable, yet whose political style constantly reminds the winners that he is not naturally theirs. In every ruling party, there is a crucial difference between allies and stakeholders. Allies help you win, and stakeholders own the structure that decides who gets what after victory. Wike’s problem is that he has operated like both. His support for Tinubu, and his capacity to complicate the opposition’s arithmetic, gave him relevance at the centre. That relevance always tempts a man to behave like a co-owner.

Wike has built his political life on the logic of territorial command. He defines the space, polices the gate, punishes disloyalty, rewards submission, and keeps opponents permanently uncertain. That method is brutally effective when a man truly owns and controls the structure, because it produces fear, and fear produces compliance. This is why Wike insists on controlling the Rivers equation, even when that insistence conflicts with the preferences of the national centre.

The APC leadership is not reacting only to words. It is reacting to what the words represent. When a minister speaks as though a state chapter of the ruling party should be treated like a guest in that state’s politics, the party reads it as an attempt to subordinate its internal structure to an external will. Even where the party has tolerated Wike because of what he helped deliver, it cannot tolerate a situation where its own officials begin to look over their shoulders for permission from a man who is not formally one of them. Once a party believes its chain of command is being bypassed, it will choose institutional survival over interpersonal loyalty every time.

Wike’s predicament is the classic risk of power without full institutional belonging. Informal influence can be louder than formal power, but it is also more fragile because it depends on continuous tolerance from those who control formal instruments. These instruments include party hierarchy, candidate selection, and the legitimacy that comes with membership.

An outsider ally can be celebrated while he is useful, but the coalition that celebrates him can begin to step away the moment his methods create more cost than value. The cost is not only electoral, it can also be organisational. A ruling party approaching the next political cycle becomes sensitive to discipline, structure, and coherence. If the leadership suspects that one person’s shadow is creating factions, confusing loyalties, or humiliating party officials, it will attempt to cut that shadow down. It may not do so because it hates the person, but because it fears the disorder and the precedent.

So the question returns with greater urgency, what will be the end of Wike? If it comes, it may not come with fireworks. Strongmen often do not fall through one decisive attack. They are slowly redesigned out of relevance. The end can look like isolation, with quiet withdrawal of access, gradual loss of influence over appointments, and the emergence of new centres of power within the same territory he once treated as private estate. It can look like neutralisation, with Wike remaining in office, but watching the political value of the office drain because the presidency and the party no longer need his battles. It can look like forced realignment, with him compelled to fully submit to the ruling party structure, sacrificing the freedom of being an independent ally, or losing the cover that federal power provides.

Yet it is also possible that his story does not end in collapse, because Wike is not a novice. The same instinct that made him influential can also help him survive if he adapts. But adaptation would require a difficult shift. It would require a move from territorial warfare to coalition management. It would require a move from ruling by fear to ruling by accommodation. It would require a move from being merely feared to being structurally useful without becoming structurally threatening. Wike may be running out of time.

Pelumi Olajengbesi is a Legal Practitioner and Senior Partner at Law Corridor

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