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Niger’s War of Blood and Water

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By Lasisi Olagunju

One of the bitter lessons Bola Tinubu may have learnt in his abortive war against Niger Republic’s military junta is that with northern Nigeria, blood will always be thicker than water. In this matter, Niger Republic is blood; Nigeria, especially the part of it outside the Muslim north, is water. Northern Nigerians will not sacrifice their brothers and sisters in Niger for anything, not for a nebulous concept called ‘democracy’ and definitely not in defence of Western interests.

Last week, I looked at the geography of West Africa, its map and where Niger stands. I queried the rigour (or, even the wisdom) in ECOWAS slapping border closure on Niger when it should be clear to the leaders there that you cannot close a door you do not control: Benin Republic and Nigeria which are in Niger’s southern borders have frontier populations that would do anything to protect their brothers and sisters in Niger. Niger’s northern borders are shared with non-ECOWAS members, Libya and Algeria, who share very strong Muslim brotherhood ties with Niger. The other borders are with Burkina Faso in the southeast, with Mali in the west, and with Chad in the east – all under military rule, like Niger.

The last five days have been very testing for Nigeria. Tinubu last Thursday sent Sultan Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar (a retired Brigadier General) and General Abdulsalami Abubakar to Niamey to negotiate with the coup leaders. They came back empty-handed. That very day, northern Nigeria issued a carefully worded warning to Tinubu’s government to back off the course of attacking Niger. The north spoke through its umbrella group, Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), which described a military action against Niger as “certainly not an adventure to be led by Nigeria.” The people on the other side, the north said, are “our brothers and sisters.” It reminded Tinubu that Nigeria and Niger “share a long historical border of more than one thousand five hundred kilometers with families and communities sharing common facilities including farmlands, markets, cultural bonds, and languages for many centuries predating the Trans Saharan Trade and colonial times.” Still, the president did not appear to have read the North. On Friday morning, Tinubu sent a letter to the Senate asking for approval to carry out ECOWAS resolutions on the Niger crisis. Military intervention is one of those resolutions. On Friday night, northern senators released a statement urging their colleagues from other parts of the country to join them to reject that call for war. The Senate on Saturday afternoon voted against the war plans of ECOWAS. Its chair and our president, Tinubu, can now smile away from the odious shame of defeat.

Because of Niger Republic, the North was restive throughout Friday and for much of Saturday its volcano was humming. Northern Nigeria was saying that it wouldn’t have Nigeria fight Niger, a country with which it had been one family before the British created Nigeria. Uthman dan Fodio was born in Maratta in the Tahoua region, present-day Niger; he died in 1817 in Sokoto, present-day Nigeria. Read Oxford Research Encyclopedia of African History. Nothing, not Nigeria, not democracy, neither coup nor pressure from any patron abroad would make northern Nigeria cut its family tie with Niger. What clever leader walks so headily into a trap as Tinubu has done? He is, however, lucky; he has a Senate of night soil men that has helped him to clear the mess. But why did he think he could pull off a military campaign against Niger by Nigerian forces? Who would have helped him pull the trigger and fire the tanks? Why did he write the Senate? Why did he not look carefully at the ethno-religious demography of the Senate before unleashing his war whim on that chamber? He should have weighed the options he had.

Talking about weighing options before actions are taken. Reports say our North was/is not just against military action against Niger; it is also against plunging the neighbouring country into darkness by the Nigerian government. Watching your brother’s back is what family means. We supply about 75 percent of Niger’s electricity. This was disconnected some days ago on the orders of Tinubu. How wise was that option?

Long after this coup flood would have dried off, its tributaries will continue to ravage Nigeria-Niger relations. How right (or righteous) was that act of disconnection of electricity from Niger? Or how legal or illegal was it? The use of international waters is governed by international law moderated by bilateral/multilateral treaties, agreements and Acts. For River Niger (post-colonial), there are about six of such, starting with the Act of Niamey of 1963, the Agreement of November 1964, the Niamey Agreement of 1973, the 1980 Convention, the Protocol of December 1982 and the Water Charter of 2008, among others. These laws lay out “general principles for equitable and reasonable participation and use of the water of River Niger” and obligated parties “not to cause harm to other states” in accordance with the laws. A key agreement here was the decision not to have River Niger dammed by any of the upper-course states so as not to injure downstream Nigeria’s hydroelectric dams while Nigeria undertook to supply electricity to the upper riparian countries. Until last week, Nigeria kept to that agreement; but Niger Republic has long violated the pact. Our neighbour is building an ambitious dam,
Kandadji Dam, with a height of 280m, a length of 8,780m and a reservoir covering an area of 282 hectares. The dam, 489km away from Nigeria, should be ready by 2024 – next year- or 2025, but the injury envisaged in 1963 is already taking its toll.

The Niger Basin Authority manages River Niger for all its riparian states. Its National Focal Structure (NBA-NFS) meeting of 14 July, 2017 discussed what it described as “the dwindling flow of the River Niger, the development of Kandadji Dam project upstream of River Niger and other related issues.” Whatever that meeting decided did not stop Niger from going ahead with the project. In September 2021, the now deposed President Bazoum visited the construction site, he sounded upbeat and said that “all the obstacles have been lifted..in a few months you will see the project taking shape.” He explained that the dam was aimed at addressing dependence on Nigeria for electricity supply. Bazoum’s predecessor, Mahamadou Issoufou, who started the project, was also quoted as explaining the dam’s objectives: “It is not only a question of producing electricity, but also of regenerating the river’s ecosystem, while creating the conditions for local development.” What has happened to the treaties and their implications? Article 17 of the 1964 Agreement says “The Act of Niamey together with this Agreement may be denounced by any one of the riparian states after the expiration of a period of ten years from the date of its coming into force.” The Agreement goes further to prescribe the procedure for the denunciation. Did Niger Republic follow that process before starting the project in 2017? If it did, what did our government do? Because blood is thicker than water, Niger’s negative activities and their ‘injurious effects’ went on under the watch of President Muhammadu Buhari without a word of protest from our leader. He, instead, feted Issoufou and his successor, Bazoum; they feted him so much also that he publicly announced that he would relocate to Niger if Nigeria became unliveable for him.

If northern Nigeria needs to throw the south of Nigeria into the Atlantic to save Niger Republic, it will. This should not rile us. A former US Ambassador to Nigeria, John Campbell, once noted that “the Niger-Nigeria border is artificial.” He said “it was drawn in the colonial period by London and Paris…to check German expansion in West Africa rather than recognition of ethnicities or other indigenous factors.” Niger’s population is 25.25 million. The Hausa share of that figure is 13.07 million – more than half of the total. We have Fulani, Kanuri, Tuareg Arabs in our northern population; Niger has them too. So, the people along that axis share much more than geography; they see no border, what they see is family. An American political scientist, Williams Miles, about 18 years ago looked at what he called “local versus external perceptions of Niger-Nigeria boundary” and submitted that “for the border-line Hausa, identity is not zero-sum: feeling more and more Nigérien/Nigerian does not result in diminution of their ‘Hausa-ness'”(see Williams F. S. Miles, 2005: 297). Their ethnicity and religion are their country, not Nigeria, not Niger. In that corridor, you can’t define the concepts of citizenship and nationality and get them right. Each person there belongs, daily, to the country where dawn meets them. Miles (2005:307) says that in 1998, the Nigeria-Niger Border Commission identified eight ‘Nigerian’ villages in Nigerien territory and nine ‘Nigerien’ villages on Nigerian soil. He adds that there are tens of villages halved between the two countries and that there are “inhabitants with farmland straddling the boundary (who) had to choose one colonial side or the other. French subjects were not supposed to farm on ‘English’ territory, and vice versa. As a result of ‘intermarriage’ (e.g., a ‘French’ Hausa man marrying an ‘English’ Hausa woman) and ensuing inheritance
complexities, it has become quite possible for a son to claim his family and heritage in Niger, even if he himself grew up in Nigeria and is a citizen thereof.”

If Tinubu did not appreciate these facts before he started his Niger misadventure, he should now. His teacher is the torrent of negative vibes from northern Nigeria because of its twin brother- Niger Republic.

Can we leave Niger alone to decide what it wants? It is not the first (and won’t be the last) to suffer a military coup. My people say that it is with one’s mouth that one rejects what one does not want to eat. When Nigerians wanted democracy, we were in the trenches for almost two decades fighting for it. We’ve not heard a word of condemnation of the coup from inside Niger. Al’ára ní ara ò ro òun; why are we taking analgesic on behalf of neighbours who insist they feel no pain? Nigerians are hungry, they are talking food; their president is talking war. Should it be like that? Why the undue interest in Niger’s affairs by Nigeria and its ECOWAS? We can understand the superpowers and the unease around them that almost threatens a world war. There is something in Niger for them. Canadian news agency, Reuters, last Friday gave a further hint. It wrote that Niger Republic has strategic significance for the United States, for China, Europe and Russia given its uranium and oil riches and pivotal role in the war with Islamist rebels in the Sahel region. Niger has one of the largest uranium deposits in the world. It, in fact, accounts for about five percent of global uranium supplies. United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) statistics shows that France, with 56 operable nuclear reactors, has one of the largest nuclear power programmes in the world. Its nuclear reactors generated 361 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in 2021 – 68 percent of the country’s annual electricity generation. That feat is from Niger’s high-grade uranium. Niger gives electricity to rich France, but because Africa has leaders who sleep on their brains, uranium-rich Niger has no reactor – and cannot have a reactor; over 80 percent of Niger is in darkness and the country itself is one of the world’s poorest.

So, why is the world in turmoil because of a tiny, poverty-ridden country in backwater Africa? The drivers of global politics do not get serious to benefit others. In international relations and politics, national interest is an instrument of political action; it justifies anything and everything. And, because Africa’s husbands’ national interest must prevail at all times, sometimes without their footfalls being heard, they use, misuse and misgovern our leaders; they send them on slave errands. That is very manifest in the current Niger debacle. Tinubu and his brother West African presidents should reread 17th-century poet, Jean de La Fontaine’s tale of The Monkey and the Cat: “shrewd, wily monkey convinces unwitting (or downright stupid) Cat to pull chestnuts from a hot fire. Cat scoops chestnuts from the fire one by one, burning his paw as he does so; Monkey eagerly gobbles them up, leaving none for the Cat.” They should also read about Vladmir Lenin’s “useful idiots”, a ‘simple’ people routinely used cynically by their lords and masters to push a cause they know little or nothing about and is of no benefit to them.

What will Tinubu look like after this time out? Studies upon studies have shown that leaders who drag their nations into unnecessary war expose themselves to a condition that threatens their retention of political power. Luckily for our president, his puny Senate has saved his face for him with a soft landing. But let him stop acting Reagan without the depth of Ronald Reagan. As Emeritus Professor Toyin Falola said in a private group discussion yesterday, Tinubu’s friends should tell him to recalibrate: “His handling of the coup in Niger is terrible: he forgets the large Hausa population; he forgets the Yoruba-Sabarumo alliance in Niger which can cause genocide to his Yoruba people…he forgets refugees; he forgets the pipeline passing through Niger to Morocco; he even forgets the rams needed for Ileya. His friends should tell him to recalibrate. As Mr. Macaroni would ask: “Are you normal?” Is Tinubu normal? In my only public piece on him, Adán, I explained the danger he represents, using the bat as a metaphor: a shifting character that feeds on its environment, destroys it, and moves away.”

Because Tinubu is famed to be smart and wise, this final word should be enough counsel for him.

First Published in the Nigerian Tribune

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Opinion

The Synergy Imperative: Integrating Transformative Leadership and Strategic Management for Africa’s Ascent

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By Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD

“The bridge from Africa’s potential to its preeminence is built with the twin pillars of visionary leadership, which dares to imagine the impossible, and disciplined management, which masters the possible” – Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD

Africa’s journey from a continent brimming with untapped potential to a unified global powerhouse is arguably the defining narrative of our century. This transformation, however, hinges on a critical catalyst: a new paradigm of leadership. To dismantle the persistent architecture of poverty and transcend the historical cycle of mediocrity, African nations require more than administrators; they need visionary architects and master builders. This necessitates a powerful fusion of transformative leadership—which sets the daring direction—and strategic, execution-focused management—which paves the road to get there. The synergy between these two forces is non-negotiable for unlocking the innovative capacity needed to deliver tangible possibilities for Africa’s people, its dynamic corporations, and its sovereign nations.

I. The Essence of Transformative Leadership: Architecting a New Continental Consciousness

True transformative leadership moves beyond maintaining the status quo. It is an audacious practice of reimagining futures, challenging deeply embedded narratives, and mobilizing collective will toward a shared, audacious horizon.

1.      Crafting a Unifying and Aspirational Narrative: The transformative leader’s first task is to be a master storyteller for the future. This involves articulating a vision that moves past diagnoses of poverty to paint a vivid, compelling picture of continental success—a Africa renowned for its innovation, quality, and strategic influence. This narrative must replace a mindset of scarcity with one of boundless opportunity, fostering a new identity where “Made in Africa” signifies excellence, reliability, and cutting-edge solutions. It is about making the idea of a continental giant not a distant dream, but an inevitable destination in the public imagination.

2.      Demonstrating Unshakeable Ethical Fortitude: The battle against mediocrity is fundamentally a battle for integrity. Transformative leaders must embody and enforce an ironclad commitment to governance that is transparent, accountable, and institutionally robust. This requires the political courage to depersonalize state institutions, empowering independent judiciary, audit authorities, and anti-corruption commissions not just on paper but in practice. By becoming the chief guardian of institutional integrity, a leader builds the essential currency of trust—without which long-term investment and social cohesion are impossible.

3.      Championing Radical Inclusivity: No single entity holds a monopoly on innovative ideas. Transformative leaders actively dismantle top-down governance silos to create participatory ecosystems. They facilitate sustained dialogues that bring together the pragmatic insights of the private sector, the grassroots realities understood by civil society, the foresight of academia, and the voices of marginalized communities. This inclusive approach does more than improve policy; it fosters a profound sense of collective ownership over the continent’s destiny, building a resilient coalition for sustained change.

II. The Discipline of Strategic Management: Building the Engine of Execution

A vision without a rigorous mechanism for implementation remains a mere hallucination. Transformative leadership must be operationalized through management systems characterized by precision, adaptability, and results.

1.      Engineering a Performance-Obsessed Public Sector: The public administration must be fundamentally redesigned into a lean, data-driven delivery machine. This demands:

o    Integrated Outcome Frameworks: Adopting systems like the Balanced Scorecard to cascade the national vision into clear departmental objectives, measurable Key Performance Indicators (KPIs), and individual accountability metrics for civil servants.

o    Evidence-Based Policy Orchestration: Investing in robust data analytics units and real-time monitoring dashboards. Resource allocation and program adjustments must be driven by hard evidence of what works, moving policymaking from political intuition to strategic science.

o    Relentless Process Innovation: Launching comprehensive digital governance initiatives to automate and streamline bureaucratic processes—from business licensing to customs clearance. This eliminates friction, reduces opportunities for graft, and dramatically improves the user experience for citizens and investors alike.

2.      Cultivating Dynamic Innovation Ecosystems: Management’s role is to create the fertile ground where creativity and enterprise can flourish. This is a deliberate, managerial function:

o    Establishing Agile Policy Laboratories: Creating regulatory sandboxes in key sectors like fintech, renewable energy, and logistics allows startups to test breakthrough ideas in a controlled environment with temporary regulatory relief, fostering innovation without compromising systemic stability.

o    Orchestrating Strategic Alliances: Building structured platforms for public-private-research collaboration. Government can de-risk pioneering R&D in areas like vaccine manufacturing or artificial intelligence for agriculture, with clear pathways for commercialization led by the private sector and fueled by academic research.

o    Safeguarding Intellectual Creation: Modernizing and rigorously enforcing intellectual property regimes managed by efficient, trustworthy institutions. This protects African innovators, attracts R&D investment, and ensures that breakthroughs conceived on the continent yield prosperity for its people.

3.      Mastering Capital: Human and Financial:

o    Strategic Human Capital Development: Aligning national education and vocational training curricula with the future skills demanded by the continental transformation agenda requires active management through a permanent skills council, ensuring a seamless pipeline of talent for the industries of tomorrow.

o    Pioneering Financial Architecture: Beyond domestic revenue mobilization, management excellence is key to structuring and accessing innovative finance. This includes developing bankable project pipelines for green bonds, diaspora investment instruments, and blended finance models to fund the massive infrastructure required for integration, all while maintaining impeccable sovereign debt management.

III. The Tangible Dividend: Delivering Expanded Possibilities for All

The ultimate metric for this leadership-management model is the tangible impact on the ground.

·         For Africa’s Citizens: The outcome is expanded human agency and dignity. This manifests as access to meaningful, future-oriented employment; quality, affordable healthcare and education delivered efficiently; and social protections that empower rather than create dependency. Citizens experience a state that is a capable partner in their aspirations.

·         For Africa’s Enterprises: The outcome is a predictable, enabling, and competitive operating environment. Corporations and entrepreneurs benefit from reliable infrastructure, seamless administrative processes, access to capital, and a fair, transparent market. This enables them to scale, innovate, and compete confidently on regional and global stages.

·         For Africa’s Nations and Continental Body: The outcome is sovereign capability and collective strategic influence. Individually, nations evolve into resilient, adaptive economies. Collectively, a strategically managed and integrated Africa transforms into a formidable negotiating bloc, capable of shaping global rules on trade, climate, and digital governance, and moving from being a subject of global dynamics to a definitive shaper of the world order.

Conclusion: The Imperative of Synergy

The path from poverty to preeminence is paved by the dual forces of transformative leadership and strategic management. Leaders must provide the spark of vision, the moral compass, and the political will to embark on an audacious journey. The management apparatus must provide the meticulous map, the engine, and the metrics to navigate it successfully. When these elements align in harmony—when the architect’s dream is matched by the engineer’s precision—Africa will ignite a self-sustaining cycle of innovation, inclusive growth, and shared prosperity. This is the pathway that turns the latent potential within its people, the ambition of its corporations, and the sovereignty of its nations into a manifested reality. It is how the continent will cease to be perpetually “rising” and will firmly stand, a realized giant, shaping the century ahead.

Dr. Tolulope Adeseye Adegoke is a distinguished scholar-practitioner specializing in the intersection of African security, governance, strategic leadership and effective management. His expertise is built on a robust academic foundation—with a PhD, MA, and BA in History and International Studies focused on West African conflicts, terrorism, and regional diplomacy—complemented by high-level professional credentials as a Distinguished Fellow Certified Management Consultant and a Fellow Certified Human Resource Management Professional.

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A Marriage That Changed History: Celebrating Mobolaji and Dele Momodu at 33

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By Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba

Some marriages are sustained by time, a few are tested by trials, but only the rarest are forged by destiny and proven by history. The union of Chief Dele Momodu and Chief Mobolaji Aderamaja Momodu belongs firmly in this extraordinary class, a marriage where love speaks with courage, partnership walks with purpose, and devotion quietly reshapes lives and legacies.

As Chief Dele and his remarkable wife Mobolaji Momodu mark 33 years of marital union, I am compelled to pause, not just to celebrate longevity, but to honour a love story that has survived trials, triumphed over tyranny, and blossomed into a partnership that continues to inspire generations.

I have always known them as love birds. It is almost impossible to engage Chief Dele Momodu in any meaningful conversation without the affectionate and respectful mention of his wife. He speaks of her not as an appendage to his success, but as its backbone, his confidant, his compass, and proudly, his “prayer warrior.” That alone speaks volumes in a world where gratitude within marriage is often whispered, if acknowledged at all.

Chief Mobolaji is kindness personified. Whenever I am privileged to be their guest whether at their warm Ikoyi home in Lagos or at public functions, her concern is constant and sincere. She will not sit comfortably until she is certain that everyone around her, especially her guests, is fine. That gentle strength, that instinctive compassion, defines her essence.

Yet, beyond her kindness lies courage. History will forever remember one defining moment on 25th July 1995 during the dark, oppressive days of General Sani Abacha’s dictatorship, a very heart-touching story. Strange, faceless men had come looking for Dele Momodu at their home. At the time, he was away in Ogun State. Without hesitation, His wife Mobolaji immediately sensed the danger coming when she suspected that those men could have been Abacha’s attack dogs. Highly cerebral young woman she was, she acted smartly by sneaking to trace the road the knew her husband was likely following to come back home. Luckily enough, she stopped him and raised the alarm. That single, decisive action changed the course of history.

Dele Momodu had already tasted detention for his pro-democracy stance where he was detained in Alagbon close. Now, he was being hunted again, this time in connection with the underground Radio Freedom, later renamed Radio Kudirat, in honour of the murdered activist Kudirat Abiola. Acting swiftly on his wife’s intuition and bravery, he disguised himself as a farmer and fled through the Seme border into Cotonou, Benin Republic. That escape marked the beginning of a three years exile in London, but also the preservation of a voice Nigeria could not afford to lose. That moment was not just the act of a wife, it was the intervention of destiny, executed through love.

In making that daring escape, Dele Momodu paid an enormous personal price. He left behind his only child in the care of his devoted wife and also his elderly mother in Ile-Ife, stepping into the uncertainty of exile with nothing but faith, conviction, and hope. That three years journey away from home would later prove transformative, culminating in the birth of Ovation International Magazine in London in April 1996, a global brand that would redefine African storytelling and project Nigerian excellence to the world. How Ovation emanated from Momodu’s rare bravery and risk taking is a another interesting story for another day.

Chief Dele Momodu has often shared that his earliest ambition was simple: to become a teacher, marry a teacher, and live happily thereafter . Fate, however, had grander plans. Their story began during their university days at the University of Ife (now Obafemi Awolowo University), where Dele earned a degree in Yoruba in 1982 and later a Master’s degree in English Literature in 1988. From humble beginnings in Ile-Ife, they embarked on a journey that would take them across mountains and valleys.

On their 30th wedding anniversary, Chief Dele Momodu described his wife as a “combination of brains and beauty”, a woman with whom he has “climbed mountains and descended valleys together.” Few statements capture the depth of partnership more profoundly.

Their marriage in December 1992, graciously bankrolled by the late Chief Moshood Kashimawo Olawale Abiola, Dele Momodu’s adopted father was not merely a union of two souls, but the convergence of purpose, principle, and providence.

After 33 years today, their union stands as a testament to what marriage should be: friendship strengthened by faith, love fortified by sacrifice, and partnership tested, and proven by history.

Beyond the public milestones and historic moments lies a quieter but equally profound achievement, the family they built together. Blessed with four sons whom I refer to as “the Momodu’s 4 effects”, Chief Dele Momodu and Chief Mobolaji Momodu have raised a generation that reflects the values of discipline, faith, and excellence that define their home.

As they celebrate this remarkable milestone, Nigeria celebrates with them. Their story reminds us that behind every courageous man is often a discerning, fearless woman, and behind every lasting marriage is mutual respect, unwavering loyalty, and shared vision.

Happy 33rd Wedding Anniversary to Chief Dele Momodu and Chief Mobolaji Aderamaja Momodu, a couple whose love did not merely survive time, but shaped it.

May the years ahead be gentler, brighter, and filled with the same grace that has defined the journey so far, in good health, wealth, happiness, fulfillment and massive blessings.

Dr Baba writes from Kano, and can be reached via drssbaba@yahoo.com

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Rebuilding the Pillars: A Comprehensive Blueprint for Overcoming Nigeria’s Leadership Deficit

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By Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD

Systemic governance reform as the critical foundation for unlocking sustainable development and restoring national promise. “Nations are not built on resources, but on systems. Nigeria’s future rests not on changing leaders, but on transforming the very structures that create them” – Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD

Introduction: The Leadership Imperative

Nigeria, often described as the “Giant of Africa,” stands at a pivotal moment in its historical trajectory. Possessing unparalleled human capital, vast natural resources, and a dynamic, youthful population, the nation’s potential remains paradoxically constrained by deeply embedded structural deficiencies within its leadership architecture. These systemic flaws—evident across political, corporate, and civic institutions—have created profound cracks that undermine public trust, stifle economic innovation, and impede the delivery of fundamental social goods. This leadership deficit is not merely a political inconvenience; it is the central bottleneck to national progress.

Addressing this challenge requires moving beyond cyclical criticism of individuals and towards a deliberate, strategic reconstruction of the systems that produce, empower, and hold leaders accountable. This blog post presents a holistic, actionable blueprint designed to seal these cracks permanently. It offers a pathway to cultivate a leadership ecosystem that is transparent, accountable, performance-driven, and ethically grounded, thereby delivering tangible possibilities for Nigeria’s people, empowering its corporate sector, and restoring its stature on the global stage.

Section 1: Diagnosing the Structural Cracks—A Multilayered Analysis

A precise diagnosis is essential for effective treatment. Nigeria’s leadership challenges are multifaceted and mutually reinforcing, stemming from three core structural failures.

1. The Governance Architecture Failure

The current system suffers from a fundamental contradiction: a hyper-centralized federal model that stifles local innovation and accountability. Critical institutions, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), the judiciary, and the civil service, frequently operate with compromised autonomy, inadequate technical capacity, and vulnerability to political interference. Furthermore, the intended checks and balances among the executive, legislative, and judicial branches have weakened, creating avenues for impunity and concentrated power that deviate from democratic principles.

2. The Leadership Pipeline Collapse

The mechanisms for recruiting and developing leaders are fundamentally broken. Political party structures too often prioritize patronage, loyalty, and financial muscle over competence, vision, and ethical fortitude. There exists no systematic, nationwide program for identifying, nurturing, and mentoring successive generations of public servants. This results in a recurring leadership vacuum and a deficiency of cognitive diversity at decision-making tables, limiting the range of solutions for national challenges.

3. The Integrity Infrastructure Erosion

Perhaps the most damaging crack is the erosion of public trust, fueled by opacity and impunity. Decision-making processes and public resource allocations are frequently shrouded in secrecy, while accountability mechanisms are rendered ineffective. The consistent weakness in enforcing ethical codes across sectors has allowed a culture of corruption to persist, which acts as a regressive tax on development, scuttles investor confidence, and demoralizes the citizenry.

Section 2: A Tripartite Framework for Sustainable Transformation

Lasting reform necessitates concurrent, mutually reinforcing interventions across three interconnected pillars.

Pillar I: Constitutional and Institutional Reformation

Implementing True Cooperative Federalism: It is imperative to undertake a constitutional review that clearly delineates responsibilities and revenue-generating authorities among federal, state, and local governments. This empowers subnational entities to become laboratories of development, tailored to local contexts, while fostering healthy competition in providing public services. Fiscal autonomy must be matched with enhanced capacity-building initiatives at the state and local government levels.

Fortifying Independent Institutions: Key democratic institutions require constitutional protection from executive and legislative overreach. This includes guaranteeing transparent, first-line funding from the Consolidated Revenue Fund and establishing rigorous, meritocratic panels for appointing their leadership. Strengthening bodies like the Code of Conduct Bureau and the Public Complaints Commission is equally vital.

Professionalizing the Political Space: Electoral reform must introduce systems like ranked-choice voting to encourage more issue-based, inclusive campaigning. Legislation should mandate demonstrable internal democracy within political parties, including transparent primaries and audited financial disclosures, to reduce the capture of parties by narrow interests.

Pillar II: Cultivating a Leadership Development Ecosystem

Establishing a Premier National School of Governance (NSG): Modeled on institutions like the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, a Nigerian NSG would serve as the apex institution for executive leadership training. Attendance for all senior civil servants, political appointees, and legislators should be mandatory, with curricula focused on strategic public administration, ethical leadership, complex project management, and national policy analysis.

Catalyzing a Corporate Governance Revolution: The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Corporate Affairs Commission (CAC) must enforce stricter codes requiring diverse, independent, and technically competent boards. The private sector should be incentivized—through tax credits or preferential procurement status—to establish leadership fellowship programs that place high-potential private-sector executives into public sector roles for fixed terms, fostering cross-pollination of skills and perspectives.

Instituting a Presidential Leadership Fellowship (PLF): This highly selective, merit-based program would identify Nigeria’s most promising young talents (aged 25-35) from all fields—technology, agriculture, law, the arts—and place them in intensive two-year rotations across critical government agencies, private sector giants, and civil society organizations. This creates a nurtured cohort of future leaders with a national network and a deep understanding of systemic interconnections.

Pillar III: Architecting Robust Accountability & Performance Systems

Deploying a Digital Transparency Platform: A mandatory, open-access National Integrated Governance Portal (NIGP) should display in real-time the status, budget, and contractor details of every major public project. Strategic use of blockchain technology can create immutable records for procurement contracts and resource distribution, significantly reducing opportunities for diversion.

Empowering Oversight and Consequence: Anti-corruption agencies require not only independence but also enhanced forensic capacity and international collaboration. Performance tracking must extend to the judiciary and legislature; publishing annual scorecards on case clearance rates, legislative productivity, and constituency impact can drive public accountability.

Embedding a Culture of Results: All government ministries, departments, and agencies (MDAs) must operate under a National Key Results Framework (NKRF). This performance contract system would define clear, measurable quarterly deliverables tied to national development plans. Autonomy and discretionary funding should be increased for MDAs that consistently meet targets, while underperformance triggers mandatory restructuring and leadership review.

Section 3: The Indispensable Cultural Reorientation

Technocratic fixes will fail without a parallel cultural shift that venerates service and integrity.

Embedding Ethics from Foundation: A redesigned national curriculum, from primary through tertiary education, must integrate civic ethics, critical thinking, and Nigeria’s constitutional history to build an informed citizenry that values good governance.

Launching a “Service Nation” Campaign: A sustained, multi-platform national campaign, developed in partnership with respected cultural, religious, and traditional institutions, should celebrate role models of ethical leadership and reframe public service as the nation’s highest calling.

Enacting Ironclad Whistleblower Protections: Comprehensive legislation must be passed to protect whistleblowers from all forms of retaliation, including provisions for anonymous reporting, physical protection, and financial rewards, aligning with global best practices to encourage exposure of malfeasance.

 

Section 4: A Practical, Phased Implementation Roadmap (2025-2035)

Phase 1: The Foundation Phase (Years 1-3)

Convene a National Constitutional Dialogue involving all tiers of government, civil society, and professional bodies.

·      Establish the Nigerian School of Governance (NSG) and inaugurate the first cohort of the Presidential Leadership Fellowship (PLF).

·      Pilot the National Integrated Governance Portal (NIGP) in the Ministries of Health, Education, and Works.

Phase 2: The Integration & Scaling Phase (Years 4-7)

·      Enact and begin implementation of the new constitutional framework on fiscal federalism.

·      Graduate the first NSG cohorts and embed training as a prerequisite for promotions.

·      Roll out the NKRF performance contracts across all federal MDAs and willing pilot states.

Phase 3: The Consolidation & Maturation Phase (Years 8-12)

·      Conduct a comprehensive national review, assessing improvements in governance indices, citizen trust metrics, and economic competitiveness.

·      Establish Nigeria as a regional hub for leadership training, offering NSG programmes to other African nations.

·      Institutionalize a self-sustaining cycle where performance culture and ethical leadership are the unquestioned norms.

Conclusion: Forging a New Path of Leadership

The task of sealing the cracks in Nigeria’s leadership foundation is undeniably monumental, yet it is the most critical work of this generation. It demands a departure from transactional politics and short-term thinking toward a covenant of nation-building. The integrated blueprint outlined here—combining institutional redesign, leadership cultivation, technological accountability, and cultural renewal—provides a viable pathway.

This is not a call for perfection, but for systematic progress. By committing to this journey, Nigeria can transform its governance from its greatest liability into its most powerful asset. The outcome will be a nation where trust is restored, innovation flourishes, and every citizen has a fair opportunity to thrive. The resources, the intellect, and the spirit exist within Nigeria; it is now a matter of courageously building the structures to set them free.

Dr. Tolulope Adeseye Adegoke is a distinguished scholar-practitioner specializing in the intersection of African security, governance, and strategic leadership. His expertise is built on a robust academic foundation—with a PhD, MA, and BA in History and International Studies focused on West African conflicts, terrorism, and regional diplomacy—complemented by high-level professional credentials as a Distinguished Fellow Certified Management Consultant and a Fellow Certified Human Resource Management Professional.

A recognized thought leader, he is a Distinguished Ambassador for World Peace (AMBP-UN) and has been honoured with the African Leadership Par Excellence Award (2024) and the Nigerian Role Models Award (2024), alongside inclusion in the prestigious national compendium “Nigeria @65: Leaders of Distinction.”

Dr. Adegoke’s unique value lies in synthesizing deep historical analysis with practical management frameworks to diagnose systemic institutional failures and design actionable reforms. His work is dedicated to advancing ethical governance, strategic human capital development, and sustainable nation-building in Africa and the globe. He can be reached via: tolulopeadegoke01@gmail.com  & globalstageimpacts@gmail.com

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