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Prepare for Tough Times, Nigerians Told As Oil Price Crashes

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Nigerians should buckle up and prepare for real tough times in at least the next three months, the Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), Mele Kyari, warned on Wednesday.

Mr Kyari gave the warning amid the global gloom trailing last Monday’s slide in crude oil prices to close to $30 per barrels following the growing impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the world economy.

The NNPC boss, who spoke at the Consultative Roundtable on the economy organised by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), said this warning is based on his experience on how the global oil market works.

“Prepare for trouble for at least three months,” Mr Kyari said in his statement at the event. “Even if the price of crude oil goes back to $58 per barrel, the situation will still be tough, because there is a backlog of production hanging that has to be resolved.

“What that means is that we are going to have the impact of this low crude oil price for some time. The oil market is highly unpredictable. Nobody knows what is going to happen tomorrow.

“There are many forecasts. We said oil will be sold at about $60 per barrel this year. But we are already having $22 per barrel. Nobody knows what will happen next tomorrow,” he said.

The anxiety generated by the sudden crash of oil prices, Mr Kyari noted, is as a result of the importance of oil in the global economy, “such that when crude oil prices collapse in the international oil market, everything else collapses”.

Nigeria, he said, has the capacity to meet the expectation of raising her oil production to three million barrels per day as well as increase her reserve from the current average of 36 and 37 billion barrels to 40 billion barrels in the next two to three years.

However, he said “much as these are very high expectations that are very possible, Nigeria must continue to produce even at low prices”.

“The market operates in such a way that nobody knows what tomorrow will be. The assumption this year was that $60 per barrel as an average. Now, we are facing a declining situation we have not even seen the bottom.

“It is a huge challenge that creates a cycle of problems for the country that is so difficult to manage, as it involves a huge deficit that will radiate to all sectors of the economy, including the financial sector.

“Today, there are over 12 stranded LNG cargoes globally that have no hope, because there is an abrupt collapse in demand in the oil market associated to the coronavirus. It has never happened.

“This is also affecting other sectors, including liquid crude oil. Today, we have about 50 cargoes with Nigeria crude oil that have not found landing. This means traders have purchased them, but do not know where to take them,’ he said.

Global glut

He said the crisis is affecting operators in other jurisdictions, citing Saudi Arabia and Iraq, which have already crashed their prices by $8 and $5 respectively in response to the crisis.

The two countries, he said, could afford to do that because their production cost is low, “unlike Nigeria which belongs to the group whose production processes involve about $15- $17 cost per barrel”.

“So, when country’s crude oil is selling for $30 per barrel, and circumstances are forcing the country to drop the price by $8, it means in the market the country will be selling for $22 per barrel. That’s a massive problem.

“That can be tolerated in some production environment, like Saudi Arabia where their average production cost is about $4 to $5 to the barrel. But, not in Nigeria.

“Today, the best of our production processes allows about $15- $17 cost per barrel. Some others are as high as $30. Nigeria is one of those jurisdictions.

“When crude oil price has gone down to $32 per barrel and you are producing at $30, you don’t need a soothsayer to tell you, you are out of business already,” he said.

Beyond low prices, he said competition will ensure those producing at lower cost will continue to have patronage from buyers, “which is why the depression as a result of the impact of the coronavirus will be felt for a long while to come, at least three months”.

The Roundtable, which had as its theme: “Going for Growth 2.0”, was hosted by the CBN governor, Godwin Emefiele and attended by the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed, along with her counterparts in the ministry of transportation, Chubuike Amaechi, and ministry of power, Babatunde Fashola.

Others in attendance were the Managing Director of the Nigerian Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA), Uche Orji and the Chairman of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, as well as chieftains of banks and industries.

Meanwhile, in his introductory remarks, the CBN governor said the roundtable, which is the second in the series, was organised to allow Nigerians from all sectors to come together to pull ideas together to find the solution to the challenge posed by the global crisis.

He said resolutions from the different syndicated groups formed to discuss the crisis would be submitted to President Muhammadu Buhari later today.

The syndicated groups include Power and Energy Networks; Roads, Rails Port, and Airports; Broadband and Technology; Unlocking the Agriculture Value Chain; Financing the Plan; Monetary and Fiscal Policy; Coronavirus and the Economy and Promoting Economic Growth through Lending and Financial Inclusion.

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Business

Budgit: Akwa Ibom Most Creditworthy State in Nigeria

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Akwa Ibom State has been identified as Nigeria’s most creditworthy state. This is attributed to its strong fiscal position, allowing it to sustain its debt obligations and borrow further.

The verdict was delivered by Budgit, a Nigerian civic organisation that examines state and national budgets and applies technology for citizen engagement with a view at institutional improvement, in its State of the States Report 2024 Edition themed “Moving Healthcare Delivery from suboptimal to optimal”

According to Budgit, Akwa Ibom came tops in the States Performance on Index C, scoring 0.227. The report declared that states who score high are determined “by their debt-to-revenue ratio, and personnel cost to revenue ratio”.

“In contrast, states that rank lower on Index C need to check their appetite for the acquisition of more debt as they appear to be either above or very close to solvency for debt-to-revenue ratio, foreign debt to total debt, debt service-to-revenue ratio, and personnel cost to revenue ratio.

“The lower ranking states may need to rapidly adopt Public-Private Partnership (PPP) models in delivering public goods due to their relatively poorer credit worthiness.

“The state (Akwa Ibom) owing to its relatively low foreign debt to total debt ratio, ranked the most debt-sustainable state among the 36 states”

For Governor Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom State who has not borrowed any funds either domestic or foreign since assumption of office, this report further validates the government’s position on prudent management of state resources for the greater good of the people.

In the same report, Budgit indicated that regarding health expenditure, the state allocated funds for purchasing health and medical equipment, construction and provision of hospitals and health centres, purchasing drugs, renovating and building new primary healthcare centres and boosting health training.

It then stated “Overall, Akwa Ibom is working towards enhancing its healthcare system having spent about N1billion on primary healthcare and medical equipment. Still, there may be opportunities to increase investment in the sector to fully meet the population’s healthcare needs”

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Economy

FG Spends $600m on Fuel Importation Monthly, Says Finance Minister Wale Edun

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The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun has disclosed that the country currently spends $600m on fuel importation monthly.

The minister revealed this during an interview on AIT’s Moneyline programme on Wednesday.

He said that the high import bill is due to neighbouring countries, up to Central Africa, benefiting from the country’s fuel imports.

Edun explained that the situation was the reason President Bola Tinubu removed fuel subsidy, as the country does not know the exact amount of fuel consumed internally.

According to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country’s petrol import was reduced to an average of one billion litres monthly after President Bola Tinubu removed the fuel subsidy on May 29 last year.

He said, “The fuel subsidy was removed May 29, 2023, by Mr President, and at that time, the poorest of 40 per cent was only getting four per cent of the value, and basically, they were not benefitting at all. So it was going to be just a few.

“Another point that I think is important is that nobody knows the consumption in Nigeria of petroleum. We know we spend $600m to import fuel every month but the issue here is that all the neighbouring countries are benefitting.

“So we are buying not for just for Nigeria, we are buying for countries to the east, almost as far as Central Africa. We are buying. We are buying for countries to the North and we are buying for countries to the West. And so we have to ask ourselves as Nigerians, how long do we want to do that for and that is the key issue regarding the issue of petroleum pricing.”

The minister also clarified that the N570bn fund release to state governments was implemented last year December.

He said, “This actually refers to a reimbursement that they received from December last year onwards and it was a reimbursement I think under the COVID financing protocol but the point is that the states have received more money. They have received more money. Mr President has charged to ensure food production in the states.”

According to him, the recent decision to raise the maximum borrowing percentage in the Ways and Means from five to 10 per cent does not imply that the Federal Government tends to rely on the Central Bank of Nigeria financing.

He also said the welfare of Nigerians remained a key priority for the current administration, particularly ensuring food availability and affordability.

Edun said, “There is a concerted effort to ensure that we have homegrown food available. In the short term, apart from what is being distributed from reserves, there is a window that has been opened for importation because the commitment of Mr President is to drive down those prices now and make food available now.”

He assured all that the measure would not undermine local farmers, as importation would only be permitted after exhausting local supplies.

He said, “So, one of the conditions for this importation will be that everything available locally in the markets or with the millers and so forth has been taken up. We will have auditors that will check that.”

He said these interventions seek to reduce inflation, stabilise exchange rates, and lower interest rates, thereby creating a conducive environment for investment and job creation.

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Economy

FG Dismisses Dangote Petroleum As Inferior, Says Refinery Not Yet Licenced, Completed

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By Eric Elezuo

A Federal Government of Nigeria petroleum regulatory agency, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, (NMDPRA), has dismissed petroleum products from the Dangote Refinery as inferior, in the guise of those f4om Watersmith and Aradel, making a case for superiority of imported ones.

The revelation was made by the Chief Executive Officer of NMDPRA, Mr. Farouk Ahmed, while responding to questions from a section of the press, a video of which is trending online, adding that the refinery is only 45% completed, and yet to be licenced for operation by the Nigerian government.

Earlier, the Vice President of Dangote Industries Limited, Devakumar Edwin, had alleged that most fuel products imported into Nigeria are substandard, blaming International Oil Companies (IOCs) of frustrating Dangote’s quest for production.

In the short video, which lasted a little over a minute, Mr. Ahmed debunked theories attached to the functionality of the Dangote Refinery, saying it does not have the capacity to ‘feed’ the nation of its petroleum needs, as it stands. He however, refuted arguments that some elements within the oil and gas sector were trying to scuttle the Dangote Refinery.

A transcript of the NMDPRA’s boss short response is as follows:

“It about concerns of supply of petroleum products acros the nationwide, and the claim that we are trying to scuttle Dangote. That is not so. Dangote Refinery is still in the pre-commissioning stage. It has not been licenced yet. We haven’t licenced them yet. I think they are about 45 per cent completed, or completion rather.

“We cannot rely on one refinery to feed the nation, because Dangote is requesting that we suspend or stop imports, especially of AGO and DPK, and direct all marketers to his refinery. That is not good for the nation in terms of energy security, and it is not good for the market because of the monopoly.

“Dangote Refinery, as well as some modular refineries like Watersmith Refinery and Aradel Refinery, are producing between 650 and 1,200 PPM. Therefore, in terms of quality, their products are inferior to imported ones,” he stated.

It will be recalled that only last Sunday, the President, Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, while hosting senior journalists from across various media concerns, revealed that the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) owns only 7.2% of stakes in the refinery, and not 20 percent as widely circulated. He also revealed that the refinery is set to begin fuel supply in August 2024.

Many stakeholders and respondents have alleged that there’s no love lost between the government of the day and the Dangote Group, and that explains the hiccup situation surrounding the takeoff the $19 billion refinery.

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