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Prepare for Tough Times, Nigerians Told As Oil Price Crashes

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Nigerians should buckle up and prepare for real tough times in at least the next three months, the Group Managing Director of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC), Mele Kyari, warned on Wednesday.

Mr Kyari gave the warning amid the global gloom trailing last Monday’s slide in crude oil prices to close to $30 per barrels following the growing impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the world economy.

The NNPC boss, who spoke at the Consultative Roundtable on the economy organised by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), said this warning is based on his experience on how the global oil market works.

“Prepare for trouble for at least three months,” Mr Kyari said in his statement at the event. “Even if the price of crude oil goes back to $58 per barrel, the situation will still be tough, because there is a backlog of production hanging that has to be resolved.

“What that means is that we are going to have the impact of this low crude oil price for some time. The oil market is highly unpredictable. Nobody knows what is going to happen tomorrow.

“There are many forecasts. We said oil will be sold at about $60 per barrel this year. But we are already having $22 per barrel. Nobody knows what will happen next tomorrow,” he said.

The anxiety generated by the sudden crash of oil prices, Mr Kyari noted, is as a result of the importance of oil in the global economy, “such that when crude oil prices collapse in the international oil market, everything else collapses”.

Nigeria, he said, has the capacity to meet the expectation of raising her oil production to three million barrels per day as well as increase her reserve from the current average of 36 and 37 billion barrels to 40 billion barrels in the next two to three years.

However, he said “much as these are very high expectations that are very possible, Nigeria must continue to produce even at low prices”.

“The market operates in such a way that nobody knows what tomorrow will be. The assumption this year was that $60 per barrel as an average. Now, we are facing a declining situation we have not even seen the bottom.

“It is a huge challenge that creates a cycle of problems for the country that is so difficult to manage, as it involves a huge deficit that will radiate to all sectors of the economy, including the financial sector.

“Today, there are over 12 stranded LNG cargoes globally that have no hope, because there is an abrupt collapse in demand in the oil market associated to the coronavirus. It has never happened.

“This is also affecting other sectors, including liquid crude oil. Today, we have about 50 cargoes with Nigeria crude oil that have not found landing. This means traders have purchased them, but do not know where to take them,’ he said.

Global glut

He said the crisis is affecting operators in other jurisdictions, citing Saudi Arabia and Iraq, which have already crashed their prices by $8 and $5 respectively in response to the crisis.

The two countries, he said, could afford to do that because their production cost is low, “unlike Nigeria which belongs to the group whose production processes involve about $15- $17 cost per barrel”.

“So, when country’s crude oil is selling for $30 per barrel, and circumstances are forcing the country to drop the price by $8, it means in the market the country will be selling for $22 per barrel. That’s a massive problem.

“That can be tolerated in some production environment, like Saudi Arabia where their average production cost is about $4 to $5 to the barrel. But, not in Nigeria.

“Today, the best of our production processes allows about $15- $17 cost per barrel. Some others are as high as $30. Nigeria is one of those jurisdictions.

“When crude oil price has gone down to $32 per barrel and you are producing at $30, you don’t need a soothsayer to tell you, you are out of business already,” he said.

Beyond low prices, he said competition will ensure those producing at lower cost will continue to have patronage from buyers, “which is why the depression as a result of the impact of the coronavirus will be felt for a long while to come, at least three months”.

The Roundtable, which had as its theme: “Going for Growth 2.0”, was hosted by the CBN governor, Godwin Emefiele and attended by the Minister of Finance, Budget and National Planning, Zainab Ahmed, along with her counterparts in the ministry of transportation, Chubuike Amaechi, and ministry of power, Babatunde Fashola.

Others in attendance were the Managing Director of the Nigerian Sovereign Investment Authority (NSIA), Uche Orji and the Chairman of the Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, as well as chieftains of banks and industries.

Meanwhile, in his introductory remarks, the CBN governor said the roundtable, which is the second in the series, was organised to allow Nigerians from all sectors to come together to pull ideas together to find the solution to the challenge posed by the global crisis.

He said resolutions from the different syndicated groups formed to discuss the crisis would be submitted to President Muhammadu Buhari later today.

The syndicated groups include Power and Energy Networks; Roads, Rails Port, and Airports; Broadband and Technology; Unlocking the Agriculture Value Chain; Financing the Plan; Monetary and Fiscal Policy; Coronavirus and the Economy and Promoting Economic Growth through Lending and Financial Inclusion.

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Files Lawsuit Against FG, NNPC, Marketers over Petrol Import Licences

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Dangote Petroleum Refinery has filed a fresh lawsuit against the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) and several fuel marketers, seeking to overturn fuel import licences issued by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

According to court documents filed at the Federal High Court in Lagos and cited by Reuters, the refinery is asking the court to nullify import permits recently granted or renewed by the regulator, arguing that the approvals violate an earlier directive ordering all parties to maintain the status quo pending the determination of the case.

The legal action comes at a time when Nigeria is recording a sharp decline in petrol imports due to rising domestic refining capacity, largely driven by output from the Dangote Refinery.

In its filing, Dangote Refinery argued that Nigerian law permits fuel importation only when local production is unable to meet national demand. The company maintained that continued issuance of import licences undermines its operations as it ramps up production from its multi-billion-dollar refinery located on the outskirts of Lagos.

Fuel marketers, however, have consistently defended importation, insisting that imports remain necessary to guarantee a stable supply and prevent shortages across the country.

This is not the first dispute between Dangote Refinery and fuel importers. In 2025, the company filed a similar suit against NNPC Ltd and several marketers, including AYM Shafa Ltd, A.A. Rano Ltd, T. Time Petroleum Ltd, 2015 Petroleum Ltd and Matrix Petroleum Services Ltd, while also seeking ₦100 billion in damages. The suit was later withdrawn without explanation.

Recent industry data showed petrol imports dropped to 965.52 million litres in Q1 2026 from 2.43 billion litres in the same period of 2025. Meanwhile, supply from local refineries rose to 3.18 billion litres, accounting for about 76.7 percent of Nigeria’s petrol supply during the quarter.

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Economy

World Bank Flags ‘Hidden Spending System’ Diverting N34.53trn of Nigeria’s Revenue

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The World Bank has raised concerns over Nigeria’s fiscal framework, revealing that more than N34.53 trillion was diverted from federation revenue over the past three years through pre-distribution deductions.

In its latest Nigeria Development Update obtained from its website, the global lender disclosed that although total federation revenue rose sharply to about N84 trillion between 2023 and 2025, about 41 per cent of the earnings did not reach the Federation Account for distribution to the federal, state and local governments.

According to the report, gross revenue increased from N17.08 trillion in 2023 to an estimated N37.44 trillion in 2025. However, deductions classified as “first-line charges” also rose significantly, from N6.22 trillion to nearly N15 trillion within the same period, reducing the pool of funds available for distribution.

The World Bank noted that the development has created a paradox in which rising revenues have not translated into improved public spending capacity, as a substantial portion is automatically retained by certain agencies before allocation.

It explained that reforms such as the removal of petrol subsidy and foreign exchange adjustments boosted nominal revenues, but much of the gains were offset by the structure of deductions tied to cost of collection and statutory transfers.

Agencies such as the Nigeria Customs Service, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, and the Federal Inland Revenue Service account for a significant portion of these deductions. The report stated that their funding is based on fixed percentages of gross revenue, leading to higher allocations as revenues increase.

Describing the model as “pro-cyclical”, the Bretton Woods institution said it operates outside the conventional budgetary framework and weakens legislative oversight. In some cases, allocations to individual agencies exceed the revenues of several states and even the budgets of key federal ministries.

The report also highlighted the impact on public finances, noting a decline in capital expenditure from N5.5 trillion in 2024 to N4.5 trillion in 2025, with only about 25 per cent of the approved capital budget implemented. Meanwhile, the federal fiscal deficit remained elevated at N16.9 trillion, driven by debt servicing and recurrent expenditure.

The World Bank warned that the current arrangement undermines fiscal transparency and accountability, as significant portions of public revenue are spent outside the standard appropriation process.

Source: tribuneonline

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Raises Petrol Price to N1,275, Diesel Now N1,950

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The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has increased the gantry price of petrol and diesel, further tightening pressure on consumers and businesses across Nigeria. This is however, in response to the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their ripple effects on global energy markets.

A top official at the refinery, who confirmed the development to our correspondent on Tuesday night, said the facility adjusted its pricing in response to prevailing international crude oil benchmarks and market realities.

The new pricing template shows that petrol rose by N75 per litre to N1,275, representing an increase of about 5.02 per cent, while diesel jumped by N200 per litre to N1,950.

This marks a sharp increase from last month’s prices of N1,200 per litre for petrol and N1,750 for diesel, signalling that diesel is now on track to breach the N2,000 per litre mark at the pump, further intensifying cost pressures across the economy.

“The adjustment is in line with global market trends. You are aware of the ongoing tensions in the Middle East and how they have impacted crude oil prices. These are external factors that directly influence refined product pricing,” the official, who spoke in confidence due to the lack of authorisation to speak on the matter, stated.

He added, “Petrol has been reviewed upward by N75 to N1,275 per litre, which is about a five per cent increase, while diesel has increased more significantly by N200 to N1,950 per litre. These changes reflect the realities of the international market.”

Market data from Petroleumprice.ng corroborated the development, indicating that the latest petrol price reflects a 5.02 per cent increase at the gantry level.

The development comes at a time when stakeholders had hoped that increased local refining capacity would help stabilise domestic fuel prices. However, analysts say Nigeria remains exposed to global oil price volatility due to its reliance on international crude benchmarks for pricing.

The latest hike could trigger a fresh wave of increases in pump prices nationwide, with marketers expected to pass on the additional cost to consumers in the coming days.

Global oil markets have remained volatile in recent weeks due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, a region that accounts for a significant share of the world’s crude oil supply. Any disruption or perceived risk to supply routes often leads to price spikes, which in turn affect refined petroleum products globally.

Nigeria, despite being an oil-producing country, operates a deregulated downstream sector where fuel prices are largely determined by market forces. This means that local prices are influenced by international crude prices, exchange rates, logistics costs, and refinery operations.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Africa’s largest, was expected to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel and help stabilise prices. However, experts note that as long as crude oil pricing remains tied to global benchmarks, domestic fuel prices will continue to fluctuate in response to international developments.

The latest increase also comes amid concerns over affordability, with consumers already grappling with high energy and transportation costs. A sustained price increase could worsen inflationary pressures and slow economic recovery.

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