By Eric Elezuo

The experiences of African countries such as Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and most recently Madagascar, would have been the lot of the giant of Africa, Nigeria, if the intentions of alleged coup plotters, currently in the custody of the Nigerian security agencies, had seen the light of the day.

What started like a mere rumour, propagated by popular online medium, SaharaReporters, blossomed into full grown story of attempt to dislodge the democratically elected government of President Bola Tinubu. This situation also midwifed the sack and retirement of the Chief of Defence Staff, General Christopher Musa and other military chiefs, including the Chiefs of Naval and Air Staff in one fell swoop. The Chief of Army Staff, General Olufemi Oluyede had luck on his side, as he was rather elevated to the Chief of Defence Staff position while his superior and contemporaries were sacked. General Waidi Shaibu took over as the COAS. Also, Major General Emmanuel Undiendeye was retained as the Chief of Defence Intelligence. These developments had fueled the unpopular belief that the two officers stood stoutly against the alleged coup, and their loyalty to the government of the day is not in doubt.

It is however, worthy of note that the Presidency and the Military have continued to deny any link between the sacking of the military chiefs and the alleged coup.

But the question that has continually been posed is who wants the president removed by force of arms?

The Tinubu-administration has come under the radar of removal-speculations ever since it assumed office in May 2023 as a result of policies which many Nigerians have dismissed as oppressive and inhumane.

Recall that in August 2024, the then Chief of Army Staff, late Lieutenant-General Taoreed Lagbaja, noted that the Armed Forces would “not allow itself to be used to undemocratically sail some interests to power”, adding: “thanks, but no thanks” to calls for intervention.

Lagbaja’s comments hinted at a possible dissatisfaction and dissension among the ranks and files of the military, who with collaboration of the civil populace were calling for a forceful change, no thanks the supposed harsh economic realities of the time, and which has continued to prevail.

In the same August 2024, General Christopher Musa, supported Lagbaja’s narrative, stressing that “Democracy is what we stand for, and democracy is what we will continue to defend.” He had earlier pledged the forces’ “unwavering commitment” to the constitution and the president.

Again, in October 2024, during the #EndBadGovernanceInNigeria protests across some parts of the country, protesters were seen and heard urging military action to topple Tinubu’s government. Lagbaja, again rejected the notion.

In the wake of the coup reports by the online newspaper, the Defence Headquarters categorically denied that officers arrested on October 4, and numbering 16, were not coup plotters, but aggrieved officers, who chose the wrong way to express their grievances.

The DHQ said it detained the 16 senior officers for “indiscipline and breach of service regulations” while rejecting claims of a failed coup, adding that “perceived career stagnation caused by repeated failure in promotion examinations, among other issues” were some of the reasons the officers officers violated service regulations, leading to their arrest.

Their names were listed as Brigadier General Musa Abubakar Sadiq (Nasarawa, 44th Regular Course); Colonel M.A. Ma’aji (Niger, 47th Course); Lt Col S. Bappah (Bauchi, 56th Course); Lt Col A.A. Hayatu (Kaduna, 56th Course); Lt Col Dangnan (Plateau, 56th Course); Lt Col M. Almakura (Nasarawa, 56th Course); Major A.J. Ibrahim (Gombe, 56th Course); Major M.M. Jiddah (Katsina, 56th Course); Major M.A. Usman (FCT, 60th Course); Major D. Yusuf (Gombe, 59th Course); Major I. Dauda (Jigawa, DSSC 38); Captain I. Bello (DSSC 43); Captain A.A. Yusuf; Lieutenant S.S. Felix (DSSC); Lieutenant Commander D.B. Abdullahi (Navy); and Squadron Leader S.B. Adamu (Air Force).

In its statement, the DHQ, which supported the “democracy is forever” slogan, warned that it would not tolerate behaviour that “undermines the integrity of the institution or threatens its constitutional role under democratic authority”. Still, they maintained the no coup attempt posture.

With the events steadily unfolding, observers have concluded that there was a intended coup to oust Tinubu is no longer in doubt, but the unanswered question, which has lingered is who actually wants Tinubu out of office before the next general election in 2027? Aggrieved military, who continually and publicly pledges their loyalty, or politicians, who felt robbed in broad day light in the last general election or perceived enemies, who lost out in the game of power among the president’s All Progressives Congress.

“But there’s one fact, there was a coup that was truncated; whether foiled or failed on its own is a question for another day,” a political source told The Boss.

More emerging facts revealed that the plotters intended to assassinate President Bola Tinubu, Vice President Kashim Shettima, Senate President Godswill Akpabio, and Speaker of the House of Representatives Tajudeen Abbas, among others.

Lending credence to the coup story, the Department of State Service (DSS) has arrested a man, who was said to have used his social media handle to canvass for military takeover of Nigeria government.

However, in a report by The Guardian, the said was meant to take place on October 1, 2025, giving insight as to the reason the Tinubu government decided at the last minute to cancel celebrations and parade for the day.

Quoting a ‘decent source’, the Guardian noted fresh facts, which emerged regarding the identities of at least 16 military officers of Nigerian origin, where were allegedly involved in the coup plot.

“14 of the detainees are from the Nigerian Army, including one brigadier general, one colonel, four lieutenant colonels, five majors, two captains, and one lieutenant.

“The other two officers include a Lieutenant Commander from the Navy and a Squadron Leader from the Air Force, both equivalent to majors.”

Quoting another medium, the paper revealed “that most Army officers belong to the Infantry Corps, with one from the Signals Corps and another from the Ordnance Corps. Many of the detainees are graduates of the 56th Regular Course of the Nigerian Defence Academy (NDA) who trained between September 2004 and October 2008, with six from this group among the first arrested.

“The remaining Army officers come from various other NDA courses. Sources indicate that 15 of the detained officers are from Nigeria’s North Central, North East, and North West geopolitical zones, while one lieutenant is from the South West.

Analysts have declared unequivocally that the coup scare, beyond the exercise of constitutional right of systemic reshufflement of military top brass, was the major reason behind Tinubu’s sack of Gen Musa and others, promotion of Gen Oluyede, and appointments of Waidi Shaibu, Kelvin Aneke and Idi Abbas for the Army, Airforce and Navy respectively.

As the days go by, the number of arrest continues to increase. From the original 16 officers reported shortly after the Independence Day anniversary, the number has soared to as much as 40, and still counting, with many of the dissidents supposedly giving out information that has necessitated investigations outside the military enclave including raiding the Abuja home of a former governor of Bayelsa State, Timipre Sylva. In his absence, his brother, who doubles as his personal assistant, was arrested.

Speaking through his spokesperson, Julius Bokoru, Sylva informed that he was in the UK for a medical check-up and planned to travel to Malaysia for a conference. Bokoru also said that the “individuals believed to be operatives of the Defence Headquarters” conducted the raid on his principal’s home without providing a reason for their actions.

Nigeria has enjoyed 26 years of unbroken democracy since 1999. In all these years, at no time was it reported or rumored that a mutiny was in the offing. Consequently, Tinubu, who rode on the back of APC to achieve presidential victory in 2023, is the first leader since the new republic to experience a failed coup or rumored coup.

With many hailing Tinubu’s government as focused and courageous with regards to his tough decisions and policies, which have changed the existential living of Nigerians, many others, especially the opposition and the general public, have knocked the president as insensitive to the plight of the ordinary Nigerian.

Though the elites have not protested openly against the hardship in the land, the last throng of Nigerian citizens, most of the time, led by activist, who is a former presidential candidate, Omoyele Sowore, have most of the times, taken to the streets, to protest. The protests have always been subdued forcefully by the Police just as the government never takes another look.

It is still not known who is leading the charge to forcefully remove Tinubu, and why. But there exists many reasons anyone who want Tinubu to stay in power perpetually, and there exists reasons many people would want Tinubu to exit office as quickly as possible. But it all depends on the side of the divide one is viewing from.

But a cross section of Nigerians have spoken up saying that much as the hardship continues to bite harder, a civilian government is still preferred.

And so the question continues to ring louder; who wants Tinubu out by force?