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General Gregory Copley Predicts Armageddon in Nigeria

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By Eric Elezuo

The last is yet to be heard concerning the certificate forgery and identity saga involving Nigeria’s President, Bola Tinubu as a prominent United States of America citizen, who is also the Head of United States Intelligence at the Global Information System (GIS) and Director of the ISSA Center for the Study of Monarchy and Traditional Governance, Mr. Gregory Copley, has spoken candidly of the scandal.

The intelligence officer, who is also the Publisher and Editor-in-Chief of Defence and Foreign Affairs publications, warned the Supreme Court against confirming Bola Ahmed Tinubu as the authentic winner of the February 25, 2023, presidential election, when it begins sitting following an appeal brought by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar.

Copley sounded the apocalyptic warning when he was hosted by CBS presenter, John Batchelor, during a live programme, Eye on the World.

He noted that there will be dire consequences if the Supreme Court toes the line of the Presidential Election Petition Tribunal, and affirms Tinubu’s presidency, while confirming that several agencies in the United States are compiling and will soon release information on the life and times of Tinubu in the country which is believed to be damaging to the record of the president. He picked holes in Tinubu’s documents as released by the Chicago State University, affirming that the papers were actually, and with the military saying it would not return to power, the citizens may likely take it upon themselves to unleash a certain level of unrest if the Supreme Court fails ‘to do the right thing’.

A transcript of the the conversation between Batchelor and Copley is presented in full below:

“I’m John Batchelor with my good colleague Gregory Copley, Defense And Foreign Affairs, the editor and publisher. He’s traveling, he’s in London. We come now to the Nigerian election of 2023 concluded with the victory going to the man representing the establishment, Bola Tinubu. However, there is new information that raises questions, a great deal not only about Tinubu but about the legitimacy, the trustworthiness, the credibility, the stability of the whole country because of questions raised at the election and misrepresentations.

Gregory, What do we know about Tinubu? What do we know about his presentation to the people of Nigeria?

Well, firstly, we have to understand that Nigeria is this great bell wealth for Africa. It’s the largest population and the largest economy in Africa. It has moved very deliberately past an era of coups which were intended to save democracy in many years past and the military have not intervened. This time, they have indicated they don’t want to intervene. But the reality is that the Independent National Electoral Commission really clearly showed that it was bought off by the outgoing administration in order to put their candidate, Bola Tinubu, in the front seat of the election. He won about a third of the votes 36 percent of the votes. He won a third of the states in Nigeria, but he failed to win something which was stipulated in the constitution. He had to win not only a given number of states but also the Federal Capital Territory around Abuja. He failed to win Abuja. Now the logical outcome for the Election Commission would have been to call for a second round of voting between the top two candidates Atiku Abubakar and Bola Tinubu that they didn’t do. They just awarded the election to Tinubu. Now that’s well and good and it was appealed to the Elections Court which again ruled in favor of Tinubu. Even though there was a prima facie case that it violated the constitution.

There were always questions about the bribing and corruption within the courts and within INEC, the Election Commission. But then we’ve now started to see greater attention being paid to the fact that Bola Tinubu lied and committed forgery and fraud on his election application in sworn documents. So, this included a lot about his educational qualifications which he clearly lied about and it included failure to disclose his criminal prosecutions in the United States and as a result, what we’ve seen belatedly as a results of a US attempt under the Freedom of Information Act to have documents in the federal government of the United States released into the public domain.

Now in September, the FBI said it would start releasing 500 documents or 500 pages a month of its documents on Tinubu out of 2500 total pages of material that they have on him. The CIA, the State Department, the IRS, the Drug Enforcement Agency have also got a mass of data about Bola Tinubu’s activities in the United States, and they too are preparing to release all this information. And what it’s starting to show is that Bola Tinubu has used many aliases along his career, including to gain an education or to gain claims of education. And he basically put pressure on Chicago State University not to release the transcriptions or anything to do with him because they show that he used different names that he used several different Social Security numbers in the United States, some of which were clearly borrowed or fraudulent. He clearly forged in the number of documents; he borrowed another person’s identity to file studies which were required educationally. So he’s done a number of things. But he particularly was prosecuted in Chicago in the 1990’s for narcotics trafficking, and he basically pleaded no-contest to that and escaped with a forfeiture of 460 thousand dollars rather than go to prison.

So, there’s a lot which is coming out about him. So the appeal against the election outcome after being rejected by the Election court is now getting ready to go to the Supreme Court of Nigeria. That’s going to be accompanied by all of this other information about Tinubu’s forgeries. If Bola Tinubu is in fact his name, but he’s lied on about literally every aspect of his life, so it gets to be a very interesting situation. It’s to the point now where if the Supreme Court does not overturn this election, then there will be serious consequences. I’ve heard it and that’s one of the reasons I’m in London speaking to a lot of my African correspondents who have come up to meet me is that there will be consequences such as; a move to impeach President Tinubu starting either in the Senate or in the House of Representatives in Nigeria. But certainly there’s cooperation among House and Senate people, the politicians there to start as a not only impeachment of the President to overturn the election but also to start censoring or impeaching the Supreme Court if it fails to do its duty and also of course to start prosecuting officials within INEC, the Independent National Electoral Commission as well. So this starts to get very, very ugly.

The military has basically said; Well, we don’t want to be back in government ever again. It’s just too damaging to the country to restart the clock every time but what you will see as an increase in public unrest. You’ll see the government being unable to coordinate any compromises with its neighbours in ECOWAS, the Economic Community of West African States in the fight against the jihadist movements such as Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa and the likes. So, this is going to get really ugly really quickly and will further impact the Nigerian economy. Unless the Supreme Court does its duty now.

The Supreme Court is actually being assaulted by the Tinubu State House with bribery offers and all manner of coercive measures. So, the seven justices who we now know have been chosen for this Supreme Court case really are up against a massive dilemma. Whether they cave to corruption which they may, or whether they bring the country into real chaos.

Has either the UK government or the US government commented?

No, they have not commented. But the fact that the US government has now caved completely and is releasing documents over five major agencies starting with the FBI is a statement in itself.

Gregory Copley, editor and publisher of Defense And Foreign Affairs. He’s traveling. He’s in London. The unfinished and deeply deeply troubled election of 2023 in Nigeria, influencing all of Africa. Everybody watches very carefully what happens in Nigeria. This is CBS Eye on the World. I’m John Batchelor.”

It is on record that Tinubu has been frantic efforts prior, during and after the release of his academic records to Atiku. He appealed to CSU not to release the records, claiming it will cause ‘irreparable damage’ to his person. When the appeal was turned, the Nigerian president reportedly consulted about three Appeal courts in the USA to upturn the mandate granted CSU to release the records.

Consequently, after the records were released, sources have told The Boss that Tinubu resorted media war to ‘defend the indefensible’. This, he is doing with the expansion of media aides to join in feeding the public narratives different from what  CSU presented to the public. He is probably assembled the largest media and information team ever in the history of Nigeria.

According to a statement by presidential spokesman, Ajuri Ngelale, during the week, Tinubu appointed addition five media aides including Senior Special Assistant to the President National Values & Social Justice, Fela Durotoye; Senior Special Assistant to the President on Public Engagement, Fredrick Nwabufo; and Senior Special Assistant to the President, Strategic Communications, Linda Nwabuwa Akhigbe.

Others are Special Assistant to the President, Public Affairs, Aliyu Audu, and Personal Assistant to the President, Special Duties, Francis Adah Abah. Linda Nwabuwa Akhigbe was later seconded to serve as the Communications Adviser to the President of the ECOWAS Commission.

Also during the week, three Nigerian journalists, Chiagozie Nwonwu, Fauziyya Tukur and Olaronke Alo, working with The Disinformation Team of the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC), wrote an article, exonerated Tinubu from the forgery allegations. They claim it was based on a thoroughly conducted reseach, using basic yardsticks from the released documents fron CSU.

On Friday, Tinubu added to the list with the appointment of Bayo Onanuga as the Special Adviser on Information and Strategy. The president is proving that he was ready for media war to attempt a remedy at his battered image.

However, a counter report by the Foundation for Investigative Journalism (FIJ), showed that the British media outlet erred in its report.

According to FIJ, it fact-checked Tinubu’s academic profile after CSU released his academic records to Atiku Abubakar.

From the documents made available by CSU, FIJ found that the replacement certificate Tinubu presented to the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) did not emanate from the university. FIJ came to this conclusion after it compared replacement certificates issued in the 1990s with the one Tinubu submitted to INEC ahead of the 2023 presidential election.

The original one, from 1979, which he has said in the past, was lost when he went into exile in the 1990s.

The second one, that he submitted to INEC – supposedly a replacement diploma from CSU (it is similar to diplomas issued by CSU in the 1990s).

Additionally, CSU holds another replacement diploma for Mr Tinubu that they say is probably from the early 2000s that he never collected. Given the clarification in the above three points, FIJ asserted that it is clear that Tinubu only obtained a replacement certificate from the CSU in the 1990s. It adds that the BBC confirmed this: “It turns out that the discrepancy in the appearance of the diploma is down to it having been re-issued in the 1990s”.

However, from the samples provided by CSU in its deposition, certificates issued in the 1990s did not include the expression ‘with honors’. The BBC also clearly states in its report that “any request for a new diploma would resemble the current template at that time, no matter when the student graduated”. This renders BBC’s verification of Tinubu’s 1990s certificate with one issued in the 2000s illogical.

Also, the BBC had claimed that CSU’s policy is to issue replacement certificates that match the current template, regardless of when the student graduated. However, this claim is contradicted by the fact that Tinubu’s certificate includes a signature of the current President of CSU, who took office in 2018, which the fact-checking organisation says is impossible.

The organisation has it that until the CSU provides another certificate from the 1990s, which has ‘with honours’, there are only two reasonable explanations for Tinubu’s certificate. One is that it did not emanate from the CSU. Two, whoever created the controversial certificate in Tinubu’s possession copied the template of the 2000s without paying attention to timeframe variations. This, it said, is clear in one of the signatures on Tinubu’s certificate.

The signature on the right is that of Zaldwaynaka “Z”, the current President of CSU, who took office in 2018. A president who took office in 2018 could not have signed a certificate supposedly released in the 1990s.

More importantly, Westberg admitted in his deposition that the certificate Tinubu submitted to INEC was not from CSU, which FIJ conclusively said added to render the report by BBC flawed.

It could be recalled that the Chicago State University (CSU) recently released academic records of Tinubu which clearly showed that he never graduated from the institution and that his certificate were forged.

ABOUT GREGORY COPLEY 

Gregory R. Copley, a U.S Military General, is a historian, author, and strategic analyst who had worked at the highest levels with various governments around the world, advising on national security, intelligence, and national management issues for almost five decades.

He is the founder and editor of the Global Information System intelligence service used by governments, and the Defense & Foreign Affairs series of publications, including the Defense & Foreign Affairs Handbook, hailed as “indispensable” by President Ronald Reagan’s National Security Advisor, William Clark; and author of thousands of articles, classified papers, speeches, and books on strategy, defense, and aviation. He lives in Washington, D.C.

He is also the author of The New Total War of the 21st Century and the Trigger of the Fear Pandemic.

While all eyes were initially on the judiciary from the onset, it has presently been narrowed to all eyes on the Supreme Court.

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ADC National Convention: To Be or Not to Be?

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By Eric Elezuo

On April 1, 2026, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), led by its Law Professor Chairman, Joash Amupitan, threw a shocker at Nigerians, derecognising the David Mark and Rauf Aregbesola led-leadership of the hitherto main opposition party, the African Democratic Congress (ADC). The announcement has since generated chain reactions across board in the Nigerian body policy, creating divisive opinions for and against the electoral body.

Among other factors, the announcement put a question mark on the already planned April 14, 2026 National Convention of the ADC, prompting a question mark on whether or not the convention will hold as planned.

INEC had through its National Commissioner and Chairman of the Information and Voter Education Committee, Mohammed Haruna, announced the Commission’s decision to withdraw their recognition of the ADC leadership, with special emphasis to the Chairman, Senator David Mark and Secretary, Rauf Aregbesola, in a statement.

It hinged its decision on a court order which directed the commission to maintain the status quo pending the determination of a suit challenging the legality of David Mark’s leadership of the opposition party. But the maintenance of status quo was variously interpreted by interested parties to suit their various whims and caprice.

But the ADC has insisted on proceeding with its planned congresses and national convention despite the controversy surrounding its derecognition by INEC, a move the body said would amount to nullify if embarked upon.

ADC’s National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, announced this while speaking on Arise Television’s Morning Show, citing the party’s current leadership struggle.

Abdullahi stated that the party had already given INEC the required 21-day notice for its operations and that the commission acknowledged receipt of the notice.

He maintained that the ADC would not halt its internal processes regardless of INEC’s position, stressing that the party remains committed to carrying out its congresses and convention as scheduled.

The spokesman also expressed concern over what he described as growing threats to Nigeria’s democracy, warning against attempts to limit political competition ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The electoral authority has also announced that it will not accept Nafiu Bala Gombe, who is seeking to be declared national chairman through the court.

He said, “If we’re in a military regime, we can understand it. We are finding ourselves in a situation where everything is being done to ensure that the election in 2027 is a fait accompli and that Nigerians will be left with no option or no choice. We’ve seen how this has ended in the past.

“So we are saying that we will go ahead with our congresses. We have given INEC 21 days’ notice. They have accepted the notice.

“So whether they come or not, we’ll continue with our congresses; we’ll continue with our convention.

“We are all Nigerians. We can see what is going on. We can see our democracy unravelling before our very eyes.”

Consequently, with only a few days left before the stipulated date for the convention, the ADC has gone ahead to set up a 361-man convention planning committee that would soon be inaugurated.

If hitches or changes do not occur in the coming moments, the former governor of Cross River State, Leyel Imoke will lead the 361-member National Convention Central Coordination Committee of the David Mark-led National Working Committee (NWC) of the ADC.

Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, former governor of Sokoto State, will serve as vice chairman of the committee, while Ajuji Ahmed has been appointed secretary. The party maintains the national convention day as April 14, 2026.

Sources within the party informed that preparations for the convention were in full swing, with several committees already constituted to handle key aspects of the event.

The speedy plans attached to the Convention is borne out of the fact that the Mark-led NWC has rejected INEC’s interpretation of the judgement and insisted that it would proceed with the planned national convention and other internal party processes.

Prominent political figures backing the Mark camp including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; formwr Anambra State governor, and Labour Party presidential candidate in the 2023 ele tions, Peter Obi; former Rivers State governor, Rotimi Amaechi; former Kano State governor, Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso; and former Osun State governor Rauf Aregbesola, had staged a protest to challenge INEC’s position.

Information reaching The Boss noted also that personalities like former governor of Imo State, Emeka Ihedioha; former Minister of State for Education, Emeka Nwajuba; FCT Senator, Ireti Kingibe and other prominent members of the ADC have been listed to play key roles in the planning of the convention.

But fresh evidence coming from several sources has noted that the state congresses sheduled for Saturday, April 11, 2026, have been stalled, no thanks to the leadership crisis rocking the party amid internal wrangling and legal hurdles.

As at today, crises have fragmented the party into three camps led by former Senate President David Mark, former deputy National chairman, Nafiu Gombe and a bloc spearheaded by some state ADC chairmen, and led by the party’s presidential candidate in the 2023 election, Dumebi Kachikwu. This fragmentation has been the major reason that for the consequent de-recognition of the Mark-led National Working Committee by the INEC.

While some states have announced the suspension of their congresses, a few states have vowed to proceed with the election ahead of the party’s convention.

On Thursday, a faction led by Gombe stormed the INEC headquarters in Abuja, demanding formal recognition.

Gombe, accompanied by a Rep member from Kogi State, Leke Abejide, and hundreds of supporters, accused the David Mark-led leadership of attempting to hijack the party’s leadership in defiance of its constitution and internal processes.

Addressing officials of the electoral body during the protest, a barely-able-to-express-himself Gombe insisted that due process must be followed in resolving the leadership dispute.

Reading a prepared text, he said, “We are here to urge INEC to follow due process. You cannot come to the ADC through the window and expect to overturn the owners of the ADC. As democrats, we don’t want any moneybags to come and destroy democracy. The ADC is for all Nigerians from wards, states, to the national level.”

Also speaking, Abejide, who had said he would quit the ADC if the Mark NWC is finally recognised, called on the commission to resist what he described as an attempted takeover of the party, stressing that the ADC constitution clearly outlines eligibility requirements for leadership positions.

“We are here to urge INEC to do the right thing and rescue democracy from the hands of usurpers. How do you come to a party and attempt to hijack the leadership on the same day? Which political platform is that done?

“The party constitution is clear about this. You have to spend at least two years in the ADC as an active member before you can aspire for any position. The commission has not erred. These people are hijackers, and INEC must follow through on reverting to status quo ante bellum by recognising Nafiu Bala Gombe as the national chairman of the party,” he said.

Abejide has also filed a case at the Federal High Court, Abuja, seeking the permanent removal of Mark and Aregbesola as leaders of the party. Hearing comes up on Monday, April 13.

Similarly, the ADC Director of Youths and Mobilisation, Mohammed Sahad, commended INEC for complying with a court order, but urged the commission to go further by affirming Gombe’s leadership.

“INEC has not erred in any way. In fact, we commend the commission for obeying the court order. But they need to recognise Nafiu Bala Gombe as the authentic national chairman of the ADC. INEC needs to do the right thing and do it now. That is why we are here,” he said.

Responding on behalf of the commission, INEC National Commissioner, Abdullahi Abdu Zuru, assured the protesters that their concerns would be reviewed.

“I am here on behalf of the chairman, and I believe INEC, as a commission, will look at your letter and give you feedback. Thank you for being orderly with your protest,” he said.

The protest comes barely 24 hours after a rival faction of the party, led by former Senate President David Mark, staged a large demonstration in Abuja under the banner of #OccupyINEC, accusing the electoral body of actions they claimed undermined democracy and the party’s internal leadership structure.

The back-to-back protests underscore the deepening rift within the ADC, raising concerns over the party’s stability ahead of future electoral contests.

In another development, Adamawa State chapter of the ADC has been barred from going ahead with the congress by a Yola High Court.

Justice Ahmed Isa, who presided over the case, ordered the suspension of the congresses, which was scheduled for Thursday until the determination of the case. The court subsequently adjourned the case to April 15, 2026, for continuation of the hearing, a day after the supposed National Convention.

The embattled ADC chairman in the State, Shehu Yohanna, had approached the court, seeking to stop the congresses due to alleged exclusion from the process.

Yohanna filed the suit against Sadiq Dasin, the state chairman of the transition committee.

According to a report on The PUNCH however, the North East Vice Chairman of the party and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Mr Babachir Lawal, denied knowledge of the court ruling.

“I’m in Abuja, so I don’t know about the case. Go and ask those who were in court today. I don’t know anything about the court case,” he told The Punch.

In Anambra State, the party chairman, Patrick Obianyo, disclosed that the party has suspended the proposed congresses until further notice.

Obianyo said the party’s decision underscores its unwavering commitment to the rule of law, due process, and respect for judicial authority.

He, therefore, called on all party members and stakeholders to remain calm, law-abiding, and peaceful throughout this period.

He also informed the INEC not to recognise anything done by those parading themselves as ADC leaders in the state.

“The African Democratic Congress, the Anambra State chapter, has announced the immediate suspension of all planned and proposed congresses across the state, until further notice.

“For the avoidance of doubt, the tenure of the current ADC Executive Committee in Anambra State, as well as in other states, remains constitutionally valid and duly recognised by INEC.

“Consequently, the general public is strongly advised to disregard any directives, announcements, or actions from unauthorised individuals falsely parading themselves as party leaders.

“The party will duly communicate new dates for congresses and conventions following the conclusion of ongoing national consultations and meetings.’’

Similarly, the Ondo ADC has announced the suspension of its earlier scheduled Congresses following the re-recognition of the national leadership of the party.

The party had earlier scheduled to hold its ward, local government and state congresses this month, but disclosed that the exercises had been suspended.

This was contained in a statement made available to our correspondent by the state chairman of the party, Mr Wole Ademoyegun.

It said the suspension was in line with the directive of the INEC, which asked the party to maintain the status quo ante bellum.

“We reaffirm our unwavering respect for INEC as the constitutionally constituted regulatory authority for political parties and our firm commitment to due process and institutional order.

BACK TO COURT AFTER PROTESTS

Meanwhile, the David Mark, factional has returned to court after its elaborate protests, where they called for the removal of INEC boss, Amupitan, asking the Federal High Court in Abuja to overturn the decision of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to derecognise his leadership of the party.

In a motion filed before Emeka Nwite, the presiding judge, Mark is seeking orders compelling INEC to restore his name and that of Rauf Aregbesola as national chairman and national secretary of the party, respectively.

The embattled chairman also sought an order of mandatory injunction directing INEC to forthwith restore and maintain the names of all ADC’s National Working Committee (NWC) in its records and portal, prior to the institution of the suit, and pending the hearing and determination of the substantive suit.

The motion on notice, dated and filed on April 7, was filed by Mark’s new lawyer, Sulaiman Usman, SAN.

The motion is in reaction to the March 12 Court of Appeal’s judgement in a suit instituted by Hon Nafiu Bala Gombe before Justice Nwite.

The motion, which sought three reliefs, was brought pursuant to Order 26, Rules 1, 2, 3 and 4 of the Federal High Court (Civil Procedure) Rules, 2019; the inherent jurisdiction of the court and under the equitable jurisdiction of the court to grant injunctive reliefs.

By every inch of explanation, all is not well with the ADC, and its quest to be on the ballot paper come 2027. The party has consistently blamed President Bola Tinubu for its woes, saying the president is muzzling opposition in a bid to be the only one contesting against himself; the only one on the ballot in 2027.

But will Nigerians allow the plot? Time will tell.

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Amnesty Condemns Wike’s ‘Shoot’ Remark Against Seun Okinbaloye

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Amnesty International Nigeria has condemned comments by the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, over a statement in which he said he could “shoot” a television anchor during a live broadcast.

In a statement issued on Saturday, the organisation described the minister’s remarks as “reckless and violent,” warning that such language could incite attacks on journalists and undermine press freedom.

The group said Wike’s statement, made during a media parley in Abuja, violated broadcasting standards and carried the risk of normalising violence against media practitioners.

“Amnesty International Nigeria strongly condemns the reckless and violent language of the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Mr Nyesom Wike, in which he stated that he can respond to a statement by a journalist with shooting,” the statement read.

It added that Wike’s remarks—“If there’s any way to break the screen, I would have shot him”—not only incited violence but also contravened Nigeria’s broadcasting code, which the National Broadcasting Commission is mandated to enforce.

The organisation warned that such comments from a public official could embolden attacks on journalists.

“What Wike said carries the danger of normalising violence and encouraging the targeting of journalists for just doing their job. This level of violent intent coming from a member of Nigeria’s federal cabinet is unlawful and unacceptable,” it said.

Amnesty International called on the minister to immediately withdraw the statement and issue a public apology.

The controversy followed Wike’s reaction to comments made by Channels Television anchor Seun Okinbaloye during a programme discussing the leadership crisis in the African Democratic Congress and its implications for opposition politics ahead of the 2027 elections. Okinbaloye had raised concerns about the possibility of a one-party state, a position the minister criticised as inappropriate for a journalist.

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Is Amupitan’s INEC Complicit?

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By Eric Elezuo

Following the Wednesday derecognition of the leadership of the main opposition party, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), by the Prof Joash Amupitan-led Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), diverse narratives have flooded media space as to the real reason behind the decision.

A section of the Nigerian population has wondered if the INEC is playing out a well written script or swaying to a thoroughly rehearsed and choreographed dance. Others have hinted that the electoral body, and its officials, who are products of the powers that be, are harking to the voice of their pay paymaster to ensure that the vocal fears of many Nigerians regarding the intention of the President Bola Tinubu-controlled Federal Government and All Progressives Congress (APC) to turn the country to a one-party state comes to reality.

These and many other developments in recent times have prompted the rhetorical question, is Amupitan’s INEC complicit? Are the popularly assumed Independent body dependent on the APC government to dance to their tunes? Will Amupitan, whom many Nigerians celebrated his appointment go the way if other INEC chairmen? Especially the immediate past chairman, Professor Yakubu Mahmood, who has been rewarded with ambassadorial appointment presently.

It would be recalled that INEC, on Wednesday through its National Commissioner and Chairman of the Information and Voter Education Committee, Mohammed Haruna, announced the Commission’s decision to withdraw their recognition of the ADC leadership, with special emphasis to the Chairman, Senator David Mark and Secretary, Rauf Aregbesola, in a statement.

It hinged its decision on a court order which directed the commission to maintain the status quo pending the determination of a suit challenging the legality of David Mark’s leadership of the opposition party. But the maintenance of status quo has been variously interpreted by interested parties to suit their various whims and caprice.

While the Amupitan-led INEC believes that status quo means going back to the days before the leadership of David Marj came on board, the ADC argued that the status quo promptly refers to the period before any law suit was Instituted. The development puts a heavy question mark on the judiciary, and it’s ambiguous declarations and judgment, and the lawyers, who most times, out of mischief, refuses to adhere to the correct interpretation in as much as they are aware what the interpretation is or should be.

Now, who interprets the interpreter?

INEC has said in a statement that the appellate court, in a judgment delivered on March 12, 2026, directed all parties to maintain the existing situation before the dispute arose and refrain from actions that could prejudice the outcome of the case.

“That the Commission would, in accordance with the Order of the Court of Appeal in Appeal No. CA/ABJ/145/2026 refrain from taking any step or doing any act capable of foisting a fait accompli on the court or otherwise rendering nugatory the proceedings before the trial court, having regard to all the processes filed before the trial Court,” the statement read.

Reacting, the mark-led ADC and a faction of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), through their spokespersons, Bolaji Abdullahi and Ini Ememobong, insisted that the development was a calculated attempt to undermine democratic structures, alleging the involvement of the APC government and urging supporters to mobilise in defence of democratic principles.

Abdullahi said INEC’s position does not reflect the facts of the case and raises concerns about impartiality. He noted in a statement as follows:

“We reject INEC’s interpretation of the Court of Appeal ruling.

“We knew that INEC was being pressured by a government that has become jittery from the ADC’s rising momentum even in the face of its relentless assault on all opposition parties.

“INEC’s press statement is full of contradictions that fly in the face of both facts and reason. We shall clarify these contradictions for all to see. What is clear, however, is that INEC has caved to pressure and has chosen to side with the government against the Nigerian people,” the statement read.

“We are currently reviewing our options, and we shall make these known soon.

“Meanwhile, we call on our members and all Nigerians to remain steadfast as they await further directives.

“Nigeria is rising. ADC is rising,” he added.

As a follow-up to the rejection, the ADC called for the resignation or sack of the INEC Chairman, accusing him of complicity and colluding with the ruling APC to ensure no other political party is on the ballot paper to challenge the APC in the 2027 elections.

Mark, who addressed the world press conference noted as follows in a speech titled, This Attack on Democracy Will Not Stand.

On behalf of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), and lovers of democracy, I welcome you all to this world press conference.

Since 1999, Nigeria has been under democratic rule. After 27 years, we thought we could proudly celebrate the entrenchment of democracy, believing that the country’s dictatorial past has receded into history.

Our experience in the past three years or so since President Bola Tinubu came to power has however confirmed otherwise. Democracy is only sustained by the quality of freedom that it offers and guarantees, especially the freedom to choose, the freedom to participate, and the freedom to associate. These freedoms are so critical to democracy that without them, democracy dies.

Yet, in the past three years, we have witnessed a relentless assault on these very freedoms. The agenda is very clear, to create a situation where, in 2027, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu emerges as the only option left for the people, despite the widespread suffering and wanton killings going on across the country. The twin challenge of deepening poverty, and worsening security situation in the country did not just happen. They are direct consequences of the failure of this government. They know that Nigerians will not want this to continue. They know Nigerians will vote them out. This is why they would do anything to hang on to power by hook or crook.

Background to the Coalition

The coalition of opposition parties came about as a result of a collective search for democratic freedom and the desire to resist what was clearly a relentless assault on opposition political parties. The coalition leaders decided to come together under ADC to save multi-party democracy in Nigeria and rescue Nigeria from what was clearly an emerging dictatorship.

We did not come to the ADC by chance. We did our due diligence. We fulfilled all the party’s constitutional requirements, as well as all wider requirements under the laws that guide the management and operation of political parties.

In furtherance of this process, a NEC meeting was convened on July 29th, 2025, monitored by INEC officials. One of the conclusions of that NEC meeting was the dissolution of the National Working Committee of the party, and the ratification of a caretaker committee to take over the affairs of the party, with my humble self, David Mark, as the National Chairman; Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola as the National Secretary; as well as others who have since been serving as officers of the party.

In addition to witnessing this process that brought in the new leadership of the party, a formal report of these resolutions was subsequently communicated to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). On September 9th, 2025, INEC then uploaded the names of the relevant NWC members of the party, based on the NEC resolutions.

One of the officials in the dissolved NWC was Nafiu Bala, who was one of the Deputy National Chairmen of the party. It is on record that Gombe resigned this position on 17th May, 2025. His resignation was also duly transmitted to INEC on the 12th of August, 2025. Regardless of his resignation, he decided to approach the courts on September 2nd, 2025, four clear months after his resignation, seeking to be recognised as the Chairman of the ADC.

What this means is that by the 2nd of September, when he approached the courts, INEC was already aware that Secretary Aregbesola and I had been inaugurated on the 29th of July in a process monitored by INEC. INEC was also aware that Gombe had resigned his position before the said inauguration on the 29th of July.

While this matter was in court, our team of lawyers approached the Court of Appeal, challenging the jurisdiction of the Federal High Court. In rejecting the appeal, the Court of Appeal ordered the parties including INEC to maintain the status quo ante bellum.

After this ruling on March 12th, 2026, we noticed a flurry of activities by lawyers associated with Nafiu Bala, requesting INEC to recognise him as the new chairman, or to de-recognise Aregbesola and I as the secretary and chairman respectively, in a curious interpretation of what constitutes status quo ante bellum. But we knew all along that Nafiu Bala and his lawyers were not acting on their own volition. They had become willing tools in the hands of a ruling party that had lost all support and goodwill of the Nigerian people; a government that had become desperate to cling on to power by all means even if it meant throwing the country into avoidable crisis.

In the past couple of months, ADC has become the only viable opposition party left in Nigeria. But this APC government does not want any opposition. While we were fully aware of all their desperate plans, we remained confident that no level of desperation would have driven the government and the INEC to take a direct action against the ruling of the court. But we were wrong.

It was therefore to our surprise, yesterday, 1st of April, that INEC issued a press statement after the close of business hours, announcing that it had decided to withdraw recognition for both the ADC leadership, which I head, and the fictitious one purportedly led by Nafiu Bala, thereby creating a false equivalence between the parties.

By purporting to recognizing Nafiu Bala as a faction, INEC seems to have conveniently forgotten that this individual had resigned his position, to the knowledge of INEC itself.

The Legal Position

The crux of the matter is the interpretation of what constitutes status quo ante bellum, which the Court of Appeal directed should be maintained. From all authoritative counsel at our disposal, there is no legal interpretation or precedent that could possibly lead to the outcome that INEC seeks to foist on our party.

Based on its press statement of yesterday, INEC is pretending to be confused as to what constitutes the status quo ante bellum. If this was so, under the circumstances, what one would have expected was for INEC to approach the Court of Appeal to request a judicial interpretation of what truly represents the status quo under the circumstances. But it did not do this. While posturing to be neutral, its actions confirm that it has become irredeemably partisan, working, as it were, towards a preconceived agenda. With its action, this INEC has left no one in doubt that it has chosen the path of dishonour and has become complicit in undermining Nigeria’s democracy. It therefore can no longer be trusted.

What we say in essence is this: INEC cannot choose to fix the status quo from the day it took the administrative action to upload the names of the new ADC officials on its website, because INEC does not have the power to determine for any political party who its leaders should be. That decision was taken on July 29th, not on September 9th. With its press release yesterday, INEC has invented a status quo that never existed, because there was no time that the African Democratic Congress (ADC) did not have a duly constituted leadership. What INEC has done is to create a situation that, by its own curious logic, leaves the ADC without leadership. This certainly cannot be the status quo that the Court of Appeal directed should be preserved. It is an INEC invention that is not known to any Nigerian law.

There is only one conclusion that Nigerians can draw from the April 1st action taken by INEC: THE ELECTORAL UMPIRE HAS TAKEN SIDES. IT CAN NO LONGER BE TRUSTED. As a matter of fact, INEC has acted in contempt of the Court of Appeal and has therefore acted unlawfully.

My fellow democrats, distinguished ladies and gentlemen. It is not the ADC that is under attack. This is a direct assault on Nigeria’s democracy and the right of Nigerians to choose, participate, and exercise their rights as free citizens. We have witnessed how the APC-led Federal Government has undermined, compromised, and coerced other opposition political parties. The ADC has risen as the last bastion between Nigeria’s democracy and full-blown dictatorship. And this is what worries them.

What is now unfolding is a concerted effort to dismantle that last bulwark. If we allow this to happen, it could signal the end of our democracy as we know it. If we yield to it, we would have become complicit by our inaction. We therefore hold it a duty to our democracy and the Nigerian people to say “no”.

Right now, I speak to Nigerians at home and in diaspora. I also speak directly to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu: with 90% of the National Assembly and over 30 of Nigeria’s 36 Governors in the APC, President Tinubu, what are you afraid of? If you are convinced that you have done well for the people who voted for you, why are you afraid of a free, fair, and transparent electoral contest? If you are indeed the democrat that you claim to be, why are you bent on destroying all opposition political parties?

Let me reiterate for the record; there are no competing claims on the leadership of the ADC. Nafiu Bala has no locus whatsoever. INEC should have waited for the Court of Appeal to decide this matter. Instead, INEC went ahead to do the bidding of the ruling party. But let us be clear: the role of INEC over political parties is not administrative: it is not managerial: It is simply supervisory.

For the avoidance of doubt, the leadership of ADC inaugurated at the 29th July 2025, NEC meeting remains the lawful leaders of the party. Party members and all Nigerians should therefore remain calm as there is no cause for alarm whatsoever.

It is important to state the net implications of this decision taken by INEC, in case they had not thought of it, or they just do not care:

First, by attempting to subvert the leadership of the ADC, INEC has already undermined our participation in the Osun and Ekiti elections taking place later this year.

Secondly, we have our congresses starting on the 9th of April, 2026, ending with our convention on the 14th April, 2026. We have given due notice to INEC, and they have acknowledged receipt of that notice. This is what the law requires of us.

Let us sound a note of warning. This INEC under Professor Joash Amupitan will be held directly responsible for whatever actions or reactions that follow this criminal path that it has chosen to take.

Our demand is therefore clear:

We demand the immediate resignation or sack of the INEC Chairman, Professor Amupitan, and all the National Commissioners. We no longer have confidence in them. We are convinced that they are incapable of conducting any credible election.

Let us also make it clear: we are proceeding with our party programmes, because there is nothing under the law that makes INEC’s attendance, a mandatory requirement. We have duly served INEC notice, and we will proceed accordingly.

We also call on the international community to take note of INEC’s actions of April 1st, and of the restraint we are exercising today. We urge them to recognise the clear threat to Nigeria’s democracy and stability, and to hold accountable those who are undermining the integrity of the electoral process.

We call on Nigerians to defend our democracy. This is a defining moment. Stand firm. Speak out. Participate. Resist any attempt to impose a one-party state on Nigeria. Nigeria belongs to all of us, and together, we must protect it.

It is often said, that the arc of history does not bend towards tyranny. It bends towards freedom.

And no matter how long the night may seem, the morning will come.

Nigeria will not be silenced. Nigeria will not be conquered.

Nigeria is rising, ADC is rising.

While Nigerians from all walks of life continue to react either positively or negatively, depending on the political divide, the ADC has insisted on going ahead with its National Convention scheduled for April 14, 2026, and its Congresses in deviance to INEC’s directive.

INEC had warned the ADC that it risks losing out completely it went ahead to conduct a Convention without the backing of the electoral body and with a court judgment on maintenance of status quo hanging on their necks. But the ADC would hear none of this, claiming that INEC is acting out a script, carefully written out by the Tinubu-led FG and APC.

Lending his voice to the accusation that Amupitan is backed by Tinubu’s government, prominent legal scholar Professor Chidi Odinkalu alleged that Professor Amupitan signed a resignation letter before taking office as a condition of his appointment — and that the threat of releasing it was used to pressure him into withdrawing recognition from the David Mark-led National Working Committee of the African Democratic Congress.

“I have it on the most impeccable authority that there is a pre-signed resignation letter by Chairman Amupitan.

“It was a precondition for his appointment. Ultimately, that had to be called in aid by those who persuaded him to issue this release. The threat of releasing it did the magic,” Odinkalu wrote on X.

Odinkalu also noted that INEC’s decision came roughly 60 hours after senior officials of the commission held meetings with the Presidency, justices of the Court of Appeal, and the Federal High Court — a sequence of events he said was not coincidental.

He further warned that the 2027 election “will not be much of an election,” stressing that the credibility of Nigeria’s electoral process, and the stability of the country, could be at serious risk if the allegations prove true.

Also speaking, a former Director, Voter Education and Publicity in INEC, Barr. Oluwole Osaze-Uzzi, faulted the commission’s de-recognition of the David Mark-led leadership of the ADC, insisting that the Opposition party should go ahead with its planned congresses despite its ongoing leadership dispute before the court.

Osaze-Uzzi said while he held the leadership of INEC in high regard, he had serious reservations about the commission’s interpretation of the Appeal Court order at the centre of the ADC leadership tussle.

Osaze-Uzzi argued that the order in question was not one that stripped either side in the crisis of legitimacy, but rather one that sought to preserve the subject matter of the case pending final determination by the High Court.

“Because the court did not say that INEC will withdraw recognition from either faction. All it did say is that both INEC and the contesting factions will be careful not to do anything that will usurp the power of the court and its ability to do justice on the matter,” he stated.

“I think the ADC should proceed with all that they are doing, as long as they do not impugn the majesty of the court and its ability to do justice on the case,” Osaze-Uzzi said.

According to him, the court did not direct INEC to withdraw recognition from either of the contending factions in the party, but only cautioned all parties against taking any step that could undermine the authority of the court or frustrate the judicial process.

The debate whether the Mark-led ADC defaulted when they took over the leadership of the party in July 2025 still remains on the front burner with the opposers, mostly APC adherents, lashing out at the opposition party, and hailing INEC’s decision while supporters of the ADC have not only blamed the INEC, but accused Tinubu of fear of having opposition.

The coming days promise to be dicey in the Nigerian political terrain, seeing that the ADC is the only viable opposition to Tinubu’s re-emergence in 2027.

While Nigerians watch events develop, the all-important question remains, is Amupitan’s INEC complicit?

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