Connect with us

Headline

2023: The Odds Against Tinubu

Published

on

By Eric Elezuo

The emergence of former two terms governor of Lagos State and National leader of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu, as the party’s presidential candidate in the 2023 elections, came with more of backlogs rather than glamour. Much as his diehard supporters see victory in his quest to become the president of Nigeria, many Nigerians believe that the quest of the man, who is better known as Jagaban, was dead on arrival.

Addressed as the National Leader of the APC since its formation in 2013, the twelfth governor of Lagos State desperately wants to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari in May 2023, amid excess load of inanities trailing his candidature, including severe ill-health that has become too difficult to hide in recent times..

Tinubu’s victory at the APC primaries was the beginning of his many problems at trying to win the general election. It is not hard to imagine that Tinubu has a hand full of bumpy path to navigate in this race. And the way it appears, bookmakers have already scored him failed mark.

The reasons for the dead on arrival status of the Tinubu-ambition is pictured in so many transparent loopholes that have made the average Nigerian wondered why someone, if anyone at all is supporting his election. These reasons are encapsulated as follows:

In the first instance, it must be noted that Tinubu was not the consensus candidate announced by the APC Chairman Senator Abdullahi Adamu, when the party decided to settle for a consensus candidate as supported by President Buhari. The party had settled for the president of the senate, Senator Ahmed Lawan, who comes from the Northeast. His adoption may not be unconnected to the fact that the party wished to compensate the region as they are yet to produce a leader since Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa. Tinubu’s intrusion into the presidential race, and finally grabbing it is seen as an affront to the northern oligarchy, who by all intent and purpose, may not show an iota of interest in his bid. Tinubu and his supporters have followed up the grab with unapologetic campaigns.

It should not be taken for granted that the announcement of Lawan as consensus candidate is a signal that some leaders in APC recognized the suffering the North East has passed through, especially as regards the degree terrorism, which has decimated lives and economy of the region in a long stretch of time.

Again, and for those who kept a keen eye on Tinubu after emerging winner at the June 6 presidential primary, will understand that the former governor was never magnanimous in victory. This was captured in his acceptance speech, which showed no humility, but expressed in as many words that he was on a vengeance mission, having defied all odds to clinch the ticket. Tinubu had targeted and fired several humiliating and insulting shots at the president as if his “It’s my turn’ slogan suddenly changed to it’s my turn to revenge.

Consequently, to all those whose Tinubu’s emergence was a massive embarrassment to, especially the APC party chairman Senator Adamu, who had earlier announced a different person as the consensus candidate, and the party generally, and the Igbo contingent, who felt cheated at the way the mandate rested on the bosom of the highest bidder, there is basically nowhere for Tinubu to hide. To them, he is a misplacement of priority. Adamu himself knows that with a Tinubu presidency, his job as the chairman if the party will definitely come to an end. After all, he didn’t share the joy of victory with Tinubu as he fidgeted to lift the flag of the party on the night.

And with the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, a son of the Northeast, and Adamawa State to be precise, it is unlikely the region will settle for a second in command in the person of Tinubu’s running mate, Hashim Shettima, in spite of the number one position. This is not only the theory of the northeast, but the entire Hausa/Fulani tribe that populates the north west and east of Nigeria

Another reason Tinubu’s candidature is dead on arrival, and a subject of failure, is the report by Fitch Solutions Country Risk and Industry Research, a subsidiary of Fitch Ratings, and an international credit rating organisation, which harped that a victory for Tinubu will destabilize the peace of the country.

The report said the social instability will be prompted by a chain reaction emanating from the party’s Muslim/Muslim presidential ticket. It is important to note that no Nigerian will want a more destabilised Nigeria, seeing the precarious position the country is presently in as a result of the unending insecurity that has plagued the very fabric of the nation as well as the harsh economic realities that have reduced over 133 million Nigerians to abject poverty.

The report reads:

“We maintain our view that the ruling party’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the candidate most likely to win the presidential election as a split opposition vote will favour the APC,” the report stated.

“Protests and social discontent are likely to ramp up in the aftermath of a Tinubu win since this would end the recent trend of the presidency alternating between Muslims and Christians.

“Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, there has been an informal agreement that resulted in the presidency alternating between northern and southern states, as well as between Christians and Muslims.

“A win for Tinubu would break with this unwritten tradition and likely fuel sentiment of perceived marginalisation among Christians,” the report revealed.

Other notable Nigerians, who have expressed the impossibility of Tinubu berthing in Aso Rock is the Edo State Governor, Godwin Obaseki, who warned that Nigeria will collapse completely if the presidential candidate of the All Progressives Congress, Bola Tinubu, is elected to govern the country.

Obaseki, who stated this in Benin, at the inauguration of Edo State Campaign Management Council of the Peoples Democratic Party, said that no administration had done the kind of damage the APC government had done to Nigeria, noting that the debt profile of the country under the President Muhammadu Buhari-led government has hit N60trn.

“God forbid APC comes into power, this country will break; this country will fail, it has already failed, because no government has ever done the kind of damage the APC has done to this country.

“As I speak today, the debt of this country is going to N60 trillion. When are we going to come out of it? Every day, every month, they are printing and printing money to pay salaries. When I cried out years ago, I never knew it was as bad as this. What will happen to the Naira? Only God will help us. They (APC) has destroyed the basis of this country. Electing Tinubu will lead to a total collapse of the country.

“APC is threatening the coexistence of this country, but by the grace of God, when we come into power, we will revive this country. We will make this country what it ought to be,” he said.

In the same vein, a veteran flutist, Omatshola Iseli aka Tee Mac, advised Nigerians against the choice of Bola Tinubu, to succeed Buhari.

The artiste, who claimed Tinubu is his in-law, explained that it was important for Nigerians to reflect deeply and consider their choice of next president.

The flutist alleged that the former Lagos State governor was not qualified to be Nigeria’s president, and argued that there was so much about Tinubu that was shrouded in secrecy.

Reacting in a comment section of a writer, Yemi Olakitan, on Facebook, who had declared his support for the APC presidential candidate, Bola Tinubu, the flutist said it was important for an “intelligent person” to interrogate Tinubu’s candidacy.

He said, “Dear Yemi. Anybody can choose any candidate, but an intelligent person will ask himself the question: do I choose rightly? Is the man qualified? Is he honest? Does he tell us the truth about his age, background, and how he made his money? Is this man healthy enough at 86 to take up the task of a totally run-down country…?

“I stopped supporting him and stopped family visits etc when he sold that Buhari to the nation in 2015. My advice to the nation is that this man is absolutely not qualified to become our next president. Respectfully Tee Mac Omatshola Iseli.”

Tee Mac’s fears about Tinubu bring back to mind how he stood like a rock, and sold Nigerians the candidacy of Buhari with a promise of a better Nigeria. However, the opposite is the case as Nigerians have in comatose as regards standard of living, and holds Tinubu responsible. It is even more disheartening that in most of his campaign speeches, Tinubu has pledged to continue the legacies of Buhari. And to the average Nigerian, Buhari’s legacy is continuous hardship, and no one will deliberately engage in voting a candidate that will further perpetrate hardship. Buhari’s almost eight years government is a thorough disadvantage to the desperation of Tinubu.

Another odd against the APC candidate is his mental health status in addition to his physical health, which has continually exposed him wherever the former governor finds himself. Tinubu has been known to speak incoherently in the public, unleashing one mumbojumbo after another, and holding his audience shamefaced. A lot of videos has trended and many have continued to trend on Tinubu’s misrepresentations in speech and utter verbalization of balderdash. These displays have him appear like someone in a trance or in a state of stupor. It is very unlikely that any Nigerian would want such an entity as their president, especially not after experiencing the presentations of the current president when it mattered most.

Tinubu has also been in and out of hospital over yet to be disclosed illness that has reduced to more like a vegetable in his physical outlook. Recall that it was impossible for the presidential candidate to hold up a flag shortly after he was declared winner of his party’s presidential primary. On many occasions afterwards, he has had to be helped to maintain balance while he walks. His total public exhibition smacks of a person, who is nursing a terrible ailment that does not require the stress that comes with presiding over about 250 million Nigerians.

Stakeholders have reasoned that should Tinubu emerge president, he will spend a greater part of his tenure transversing the length and breadth of European nations in search of medication, thereby abandoning governance to God knows who. The way Nigeria is today after almost eight years of Buhari rule, the country cannot afford an absentee president.

Yet another backlog of Tinubu’s candidacy is the fact that most of his educational and professional life are shrouded in secrecy. Most of the schools he claimed he attended have not come out clean to defend his claims, including academic institutions in Chicago, United States. In 2003, his current spokesperson, Mr. Festus Keyamo, challenged his academic status in court and state House of Assembly, saying that there are many things suspicious about his academic qualifications.

In addition to Tinubu’s academic and physical health challenges, the presidential candidate has dubious character backlog. He is alleged to have been involved in drug related deals. A certain document released by the United States confirmed that Tinubu once forfeited his money in some US banks to the US government when he entered a plea bargain to escape court processes, and risk going to jail. The document hinted that money forfeited were proceeds of drug deals.

Though his media handlers are trying as much as they could to defend his involvement as drug lord, it is common knowledge that anyone connected with drugs is not fit to be president of Nigeria, and so it is with Tinubu.

It is also worthy of mention that Tinubu every public outing where he may possibly field questions about his eligibility and programmmes before intellectuals and media personalities. Though there’s no law that compels any candidate to appear for debate, it is imperative that candidates present their programmmes before the people they wish to lead, and give spontenous commentaries on issues with a view to proving that they have full knowledge of the office for which they seek election. But Tinubu has shun all available debates only appearing on programmed town hall meetings where he read albeit incoherently, from prepared text. He was seen at a campaign rally reading from a paper.

Until date, the relationship between Tinubu and Afenifere has remained a no love lost affair with the pan Yoruba group roundly endorsing the candidate of the Labour Party, Mr. Peter Obi, erupting a crisis of choice in the entire Yoruba land.

It is still left to see how the jagaban will surmount all this odds and backlogs as the election draws dangerously close to February, 2023.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Headline

What Manner of Condolence Visit is This, Atiku Knocks Tinubu on Trip to Jos

Published

on

By

Former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, on Thursday criticised President Bola Tinubu’s condolence visit to Plateau State, describing it as a troubling reflection of what he called a growing disconnect between leadership and the plight of ordinary Nigerians.

In a statement issued in Abuja by his Senior Special Assistant on Public Communication, Phrank Shaibu, Atiku expressed deep concern over the President’s response to the killings in parts of Plateau, insisting that the visit fell short of the empathy and urgency demanded by the tragedy.

The chieftain of the African Democratic Congress highlighted that the events in Plateau once again exposed “a disturbing and unacceptable approach to national tragedy.”

He said, “It is both shocking and deeply insensitive that several days after the gruesome killings of innocent citizens, the President’s so-called ‘on-the-spot assessment’ was reduced to a brief stop at the foot of his aircraft, never extending beyond the airport, never reaching the grieving communities, and never touching the pain of the victims.

“Even more troubling is the impression that this fleeting visit was hurriedly curtailed to allow the President to proceed to Lagos for the Easter holidays, a decision that reflects a deeply troubling prioritisation in the face of national grief.

“While families continue to mourn those slaughtered on Palm Sunday, the President chose to convert what ought to have been a solemn visit into a political spectacle, meeting party loyalists in Jos under the thin guise of official engagement. This is not leadership; it is indifference dressed as protocol.”

According to him, the President’s handling of the Plateau visit reflects a recurring pattern of what he described as insensitive and politically driven responses to national tragedies.

He referenced a similar condolence visit to Benue State in June 2025, which he said avoided the worst-hit community and turned into a political gathering, arguing that the repetition suggests a consistent approach rather than an isolated lapse.

“In Plateau, the President neither visited the bereaved families nor the injured receiving treatment in hospitals. He offered no concrete policy direction, no decisive security intervention, and no reassurance that such horrors would not recur.

“Instead, he staged a meet-and-greet within the confines of the airport, surrounded by politicians, traditional rulers, and party operatives—far removed from the anguish of the people. This is not only inappropriate; it is shameful. A leader who cannot stand with his people in their darkest hour cannot convincingly claim to be fighting for their safety,” he stated.

Atiku’s remarks come hours after President Tinubu visited Plateau State following last Sunday’s deadly attacks in Jos, particularly in the Angwan Rukuba area, where at least 27 people were reported killed.

During the visit, the President reportedly met with a grieving mother whose anguish had gone viral after she was seen clutching the lifeless body of her son and some other victims of the attacks.

Addressing her by name, Tinubu acknowledged her loss and assured affected families of government support, noting that no compensation could adequately replace lost lives.

Speaking through his spokesman, Bayo Onanuga, the President described the incidents as “barbaric and cowardly,” vowing that those responsible would be brought to justice.

The President was received on arrival in Jos by the National Chairman of the All Progressives Congress, Nentawe Yilwatda, Plateau State Governor Caleb Mutfwang, and other senior government officials.

Continue Reading

Headline

ADC Dares INEC, Affirms Plans for Congresses, Convention

Published

on

By

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) has insisted on proceeding with its planned congresses and national convention despite the recent controversy surrounding its recognition by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Its National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, announced this on Thursday while speaking on Arise Television’s Morning Show, citing the party’s current leadership struggle.

Abdullahi stated that the party had already given INEC the required 21-day notice for its operations and that the commission acknowledged receipt of the notice.

He maintained that the ADC would not halt its internal processes regardless of INEC’s position, stressing that the party remains committed to carrying out its congresses and convention as scheduled.

The spokesman also expressed concern over what he described as growing threats to Nigeria’s democracy, warning against attempts to limit political competition ahead of the 2027 general elections.

His remarks follow INEC’s decision to remove the identities of David Mark and Rauf Aregbesola as the party’s National Chairman and National Secretary from its official website.

The electoral authority has also announced that it will not accept Nafiu Bala Gombe, who is seeking to be declared national chairman through the court.

He said, “If we’re in a military regime, we can understand it. We are finding ourselves in a situation where everything is being done to ensure that the election in 2027 is a fait accompli and that the Nigerians will be left with no option or no choice.
We’ve seen how this has ended in the past.

“So we are saying that we will go ahead with our congresses. We have given INEC 21 days’ notice. They have accepted the notice.

“So whether they come or not, we’ll continue with our congresses; we’ll continue with our convention.

“We are all Nigerians. We can see what is going on. We can see our democracy unravelling before our very eyes.”

Continue Reading

Headline

This Attack on Democracy Will Not Stand – ADC Chairman, David Mark

Published

on

By

The Chairman of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Senator David Mark, has addressed a world press conference on the derecognition of the leadership of the party by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

The address titled This Attack on Democracy Will Not Stand, is presented in details as follows:

On behalf of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), and lovers of democracy, I welcome you all to this world press conference.

Since 1999, Nigeria has been under democratic rule. After 27 years, we thought we could proudly celebrate the entrenchment of democracy, believing that the country’s dictatorial past has receded into history.

Our experience in the past three years or so since President Bola Tinubu came to power has however confirmed otherwise. Democracy is only sustained by the quality of freedom that it offers and guarantees, especially the freedom to choose, the freedom to participate, and the freedom to associate. These freedoms are so critical to democracy that without them, democracy dies.

Yet, in the past three years, we have witnessed a relentless assault on these very freedoms. The agenda is very clear, to create a situation where, in 2027, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu emerges as the only option left for the people, despite the widespread suffering and wanton killings going on across the country. The twin challenge of deepening poverty, and worsening security situation in the country did not just happen. They are direct consequences of the failure of this government. They know that Nigerians will not want this to continue. They know Nigerians will vote them out. This is why they would do anything to hang on to power by hook or crook.

Background to the Coalition

The coalition of opposition parties came about as a result of a collective search for democratic freedom and the desire to resist what was clearly a relentless assault on opposition political parties. The coalition leaders decided to come together under ADC to save multi-party democracy in Nigeria and rescue Nigeria from what was clearly an emerging dictatorship.

We did not come to the ADC by chance. We did our due diligence. We fulfilled all the party’s constitutional requirements, as well as all wider requirements under the laws that guide the management and operation of political parties.

In furtherance of this process, a NEC meeting was convened on July 29th, 2025, monitored by INEC officials. One of the conclusions of that NEC meeting was the dissolution of the National Working Committee of the party, and the ratification of a caretaker committee to take over the affairs of the party, with my humble self, David Mark, as the National Chairman; Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola as the National Secretary; as well as others who have since been serving as officers of the party.

In addition to witnessing this process that brought in the new leadership of the party, a formal report of these resolutions was subsequently communicated to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). On September 9th, 2025, INEC then uploaded the names of the relevant NWC members of the party, based on the NEC resolutions.

One of the officials in the dissolved NWC was Nafiu Bala, who was one of the Deputy National Chairmen of the party. It is on record that Gombe resigned this position on 17th May, 2025. His resignation was also duly transmitted to INEC on the 12th of August, 2025. Regardless of his resignation, he decided to approach the courts on September 2nd, 2025, four clear months after his resignation, seeking to be recognised as the Chairman of the ADC.

What this means is that by the 2nd of September, when he approached the courts, INEC was already aware that Secretary Aregbesola and I had been inaugurated on the 29th of July in a process monitored by INEC. INEC was also aware that Gombe had resigned his position before the said inauguration on the 29th of July.

While this matter was in court, our team of lawyers approached the Court of Appeal, challenging the jurisdiction of the Federal High Court. In rejecting the appeal, the Court of Appeal ordered the parties including INEC to maintain the status quo ante bellum.

After this ruling on March 12th, 2026, we noticed a flurry of activities by lawyers associated with Nafiu Bala, requesting INEC to recognise him as the new chairman, or to de-recognise Aregbesola and I as the secretary and chairman respectively, in a curious interpretation of what constitutes status quo ante bellum. But we knew all along that Nafiu Bala and his lawyers were not acting on their own volition. They had become willing tools in the hands of a ruling party that had lost all support and goodwill of the Nigerian people; a government that had become desperate to cling on to power by all means even if it meant throwing the country into avoidable crisis.

In the past couple of months, ADC has become the only viable opposition party left in Nigeria. But this APC government does not want any opposition. While we were fully aware of all their desperate plans, we remained confident that no level of desperation would have driven the government and the INEC to take a direct action against the ruling of the court. But we were wrong.

It was therefore to our surprise, yesterday, 1st of April, that INEC issued a press statement after the close of business hours, announcing that it had decided to withdraw recognition for both the ADC leadership, which I head, and the fictitious one purportedly led by Nafiu Bala, thereby creating a false equivalence between the parties.

By purporting to recognizing Nafiu Bala as a faction, INEC seems to have conveniently forgotten that this individual had resigned his position, to the knowledge of INEC itself.

The Legal Position

The crux of the matter is the interpretation of what constitutes status quo ante bellum, which the Court of Appeal directed should be maintained. From all authoritative counsel at our disposal, there is no legal interpretation or precedent that could possibly lead to the outcome that INEC seeks to foist on our party.

Based on its press statement of yesterday, INEC is pretending to be confused as to what constitutes the status quo ante bellum. If this was so, under the circumstances, what one would have expected was for INEC to approach the Court of Appeal to request a judicial interpretation of what truly represents the status quo under the circumstances. But it did not do this. While posturing to be neutral, its actions confirm that it has become irredeemably partisan, working, as it were, towards a preconceived agenda. With its action, this INEC has left no one in doubt that it has chosen the path of dishonour and has become complicit in undermining Nigeria’s democracy. It therefore can no longer be trusted.

What we say in essence is this: INEC cannot choose to fix the status quo from the day it took the administrative action to upload the names of the new ADC officials on its website, because INEC does not have the power to determine for any political party who its leaders should be. That decision was taken on July 29th, not on September 9th. With its press release yesterday, INEC has invented a status quo that never existed, because there was no time that the African Democratic Congress (ADC) did not have a duly constituted leadership. What INEC has done is to create a situation that, by its own curious logic, leaves the ADC without leadership. This certainly cannot be the status quo that the Court of Appeal directed should be preserved. It is an INEC invention that is not known to any Nigerian law.

There is only one conclusion that Nigerians can draw from the April 1st action taken by INEC: THE ELECTORAL UMPIRE HAS TAKEN SIDES. IT CAN NO LONGER BE TRUSTED. As a matter of fact, INEC has acted in contempt of the Court of Appeal and has therefore acted unlawfully.

My fellow democrats, distinguished ladies and gentlemen. It is not the ADC that is under attack. This is a direct assault on Nigeria’s democracy and the right of Nigerians to choose, participate, and exercise their rights as free citizens. We have witnessed how the APC-led Federal Government has undermined, compromised, and coerced other opposition political parties. The ADC has risen as the last bastion between Nigeria’s democracy and full-blown dictatorship. And this is what worries them.

What is now unfolding is a concerted effort to dismantle that last bulwark. If we allow this to happen, it could signal the end of our democracy as we know it. If we yield to it, we would have become complicit by our inaction. We therefore hold it a duty to our democracy and the Nigerian people to say “no”.

Right now, I speak to Nigerians at home and in diaspora. I also speak directly to President Bola Ahmed Tinubu: with 90% of the National Assembly and over 30 of Nigeria’s 36 Governors in the APC, President Tinubu, what are you afraid of? If you are convinced that you have done well for the people who voted for you, why are you afraid of a free, fair, and transparent electoral contest? If you are indeed the democrat that you claim to be, why are you bent on destroying all opposition political parties?

Let me reiterate for the record; there are no competing claims on the leadership of the ADC. Nafiu Bala has no locus whatsoever. INEC should have waited for the Court of Appeal to decide this matter. Instead, INEC went ahead to do the bidding of the ruling party. But let us be clear: the role of INEC over political parties is not administrative: it is not managerial: It is simply supervisory.

For the avoidance of doubt, the leadership of ADC inaugurated at the 29th July 2025, NEC meeting remains the lawful leaders of the party. Party members and all Nigerians should therefore remain calm as there is no cause for alarm whatsoever.

It is important to state the net implications of this decision taken by INEC, in case they had not thought of it, or they just do not care:

First, by attempting to subvert the leadership of the ADC, INEC has already undermined our participation in the Osun and Ekiti elections taking place later this year.

Secondly, we have our congresses starting on the 9th of April, 2026, ending with our convention on the 14th April, 2026. We have given due notice to INEC, and they have acknowledged receipt of that notice. This is what the law requires of us.

Let us sound a note of warning. This INEC under Professor Joash Amupitan will be held directly responsible for whatever actions or reactions that follow this criminal path that it has chosen to take.

Our demand is therefore clear:

We demand the immediate resignation or sack of the INEC Chairman, Professor Amupitan, and all the National Commissioners. We no longer have confidence in them. We are convinced that they are incapable of conducting any credible election.

Let us also make it clear: we are proceeding with our party programmes, because there is nothing under the law that makes INEC’s attendance, a mandatory requirement. We have duly served INEC notice, and we will proceed accordingly.

We also call on the international community to take note of INEC’s actions of April 1st, and of the restraint we are exercising today. We urge them to recognise the clear threat to Nigeria’s democracy and stability, and to hold accountable those who are undermining the integrity of the electoral process.

We call on Nigerians to defend our democracy. This is a defining moment. Stand firm. Speak out. Participate. Resist any attempt to impose a one-party state on Nigeria. Nigeria belongs to all of us, and together, we must protect it.

It is often said, that the arc of history does not bend towards tyranny. It bends towards freedom.

And no matter how long the night may seem, the morning will come.

Nigeria will not be silenced. Nigeria will not be conquered.

Nigeria is rising, ADC is rising.

Continue Reading

Trending