Opinion
Beyond the Present Impasse: Five-Pillar Strategy for Restoring Credibility of ECOWAS
Published
2 weeks agoon
By
Eric
By Tolulope A. Adegoke PhD
PREAMBLE: THE STRATEGIC MOMENT AND ITS IMPERATIVES
The Economic Community of West African States confronts a moment of institutional reckoning without precedent in its fifty-year history. The confluence of democratic recession, the fracturing of regional solidarity, the commodification of the Community’s security space by external actors, and the erosion of popular faith in the tangible benefits of integration has converged to pose a systemic threat to the organization’s foundational relevance. The established toolkit of declaratory diplomacy, automatic suspension, and sanctions escalation has demonstrably exhausted its capacity to compel compliance or to stabilize the regional order.
The way forward, therefore, cannot be a mere intensification of existing methods. It must be a strategic recalibration of ECOWAS’s institutional posture, operational doctrines, and normative architecture. The objective is not the preservation of institutional prestige for its own sake, but the patient, principled, and incentivized reconstruction of a regional political community in which sovereign member states and their citizens perceive membership as a demonstrable enhancement of their national security, economic prosperity, and democratic legitimacy. The following roadmap articulates a sequenced, non-biased, and operationally concrete way forward, structured across five interdependent strategic lines of effort.
STRATEGIC LINE OF EFFORT I: RECALIBRATE THE NORMATIVE FOUNDATION OF THE COMMUNITY
The prevailing perception that the ECOWAS normative framework on democratic governance is applied with selectivity—penalizing military seizures of power while remaining diplomatically passive in the face of civilian constitutional manipulation—has inflicted severe damage on the institution’s moral authority. Rectifying this asymmetry is an indispensable precondition for the restoration of credible institutional leadership.
Action 1.1: Convene an Extraordinary Authority Summit Dedicated Exclusively to Normative Self-Correction
The Chair of the Authority must convene, within a non-extendable 90-day period, an Extraordinary Summit with a single, undiluted agenda item: the critical review and amendment of the 2001 Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance. This Summit must not be subsumed within a broader agenda of security or economic matters. Its singular focus signals institutional seriousness and prevents diplomatic evasion.
Action 1.2: Codify and Adopt a Binding Symmetrical Sanctions Regime
The Summit must adopt a formal Supplementary Protocol that introduces, with legally binding precision, a definition of the “Constitutional Coup” or “Incumbent Entrenchment.” This shall be defined as any action by a sitting elected executive, whether through legislative manipulation, compliant judicial ruling, or tailored constitutional referendum, that modifies the fundamental law of the state for the primary purpose of abrogating or eliminating established presidential term limits in order to extend the incumbent’s tenure. The sanctions prescribed for this defined violation must be identical in their automaticity of trigger, procedural robustness, and severity of consequence to those prescribed for classical military coups d’état. This single act of symmetrical legal self-correction eliminates the charge of institutional bias and re-establishes the Community as a principled, impartial guarantor of democratic integrity.
Action 1.3: Mandate the ECOWAS Council of Ministers to Develop a Compliance Monitoring and Early Warning Matrix
The Council of Ministers must be mandated to develop, within 120 days, a transparent, indicator-based Compliance Monitoring and Early Warning Matrix. This matrix must track, on a continuous and publicly accessible basis, the compliance status of every member state against the full spectrum of democratic governance norms, including term limit provisions, electoral calendar integrity, and civil liberties protections. The matrix serves as an objective, depoliticized early warning mechanism that triggers preventive diplomatic engagement before a crisis crystallizes, removing the element of discretionary political judgment that fuels perceptions of bias.
STRATEGIC LINE OF EFFORT II: REPOSITION THE SECURITY ARCHITECTURE FROM PUNITIVE POSTURE TO ENABLING PARTNERSHIP
The region’s security space has become an unregulated, competitive marketplace for external military projection. ECOWAS must fundamentally reconceive its security offer to member states, pivoting from a posture associated with kinetic interventionism to one of technical enabling partnership that sovereign states perceive as enhancing, rather than constraining, their national security.
Action 2.1: Adopt and Promulgate a Binding External Security Partner Code of Conduct
The Mediation and Security Council must convene a high-level Strategic De-confliction and Transparency Dialogue with all external state actors conducting unilateral security operations on the territory of ECOWAS member states. The binding, legally codified outcome shall be an ECOWAS External Security Partner Code of Conduct. Its central provision mandates that all bilateral Status of Forces Agreements (SOFAs), defense cooperation memoranda, and security-related basing or access pacts between any external state and any individual ECOWAS member state be formally and confidentially deposited with a centralized registry at the ECOWAS Commission within a non-extendable 90-day period. The objective is a non-prejudicial technical audit ensuring that the cumulative effect of multiple, independently negotiated bilateral arrangements does not inadvertently undermine collective regional security.
Action 2.2: Formally Reconceptualize the ECOWAS Standby Force into a Modular Technical Enabling Capability
The Department of Political Affairs, Peace and Security must be directed to present, within 180 days, a comprehensive doctrinal and operational blueprint for the reconceptualization of the ECOWAS Standby Force (ESF) into a new instrument, provisionally designated the “ECOWAS Crisis Response and Resilience Capability” (ECRRC). This new capability must execute a decisive doctrinal pivot away from large-scale conventional combat power projection—a mission type assessed as operationally unviable and politically irrecoverable in the current environment—and towards the provision of high-demand, low-substitutability technical enabling functions. These core modules shall include a multi-source intelligence fusion and strategic warning cell, a specialized digital border security and management task force, and a dedicated regional counter-financing of terrorism unit operating in institutional coordination with GIABA. This recalibrated offer creates a non-coercive incentive for disengaged states to voluntarily resume security cooperation.
Action 2.3: Establish a Specialized Civilian Harm Monitoring and Accountability Mechanism
The Commission must establish, with immediate effect, an operationally independent Civilian Harm Monitoring and Accountability Mechanism (CHMAM). Its personnel shall be sourced from member states with no direct security-material interest in the Sahelian theatre. Its mandate is the impartial, transparent, and universally applied monitoring, verification, and public reporting of civilian harm perpetrated by all armed actors, including state forces and their external partners. This mechanism depoliticizes the protection agenda and positions ECOWAS as a non-partisan guarantor of humanitarian accountability.
STRATEGIC LINE OF EFFORT III: ENGINEER A CALIBRATED, INCENTIVE-ANCHORED POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT FRAMEWORK
The sterile binary between “immediate unconditional constitutional restoration” and “indefinite unverifiable transition” has produced a protracted diplomatic gridlock. A new engagement framework, grounded in verified deliverables and sequenced incentives, is required.
Action 3.1: Constitute a Permanent, Empowered Panel of Eminent Persons for Silent Mediation
The Chair of the Authority must formally constitute, through a Decision of the Authority, a permanent Panel of Former Heads of State and Eminent Persons. Membership must be curated exclusively from a small cohort of former leaders whose nations possess an unassailable living legacy of peaceful, constitutional, and fully contested democratic alternation of executive power. The Panel’s mandate is to conduct a silent, continuous, indefinitely sustained shuttle diplomacy mission, operating strictly on the methodology of interest-based negotiation. No public statements, no deadlines, and no press releases are to be issued by the Panel. This permanently discontinues the counterproductive practice of “mégaphone diplomacy.”
Action 3.2: Table a Formal, Three-Tiered Transition Compact with Verified Deliverables and Sequenced Incentives
The Commission, under the political guidance of the Mediation and Security Council, must prepare and formally table a comprehensive Three-Tiered Transition Compact as the baseline framework for engagement with member states currently under transitional military administration. The tiers are sequenced as follows:
· Tier 1 (Immediate Confidence Building): Full, unimpeded humanitarian access to all conflict-affected zones, verified by operational humanitarian agencies; and the release of all political detainees not credibly charged with violent criminal offenses, verified by the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights. Upon successful independent verification, ECOWAS commits to a formal suspension of targeted economic sanctions against the state apparatus.
· Tier 2 (Sequenced Political Roadmap): A binding 24-month, bottom-up electoral sequence—local elections first, constitutional referendum second, presidential and parliamentary elections third—with a guaranteed statutory role for ECOWAS in the technical vetting of the electoral management body. Upon verification of each phase, incremental incentives are released.
· Tier 3 (Structural Guarantee Against Self-Dealing): The constitutional entrenchment, prior to terminal elections, of a non-amendable clause prohibiting any serving member of the transitional government from contesting those elections. Upon verification and peaceful transfer of power, all remaining sanctions are lifted, and ECOWAS proactively sponsors the state’s full reintegration and development financing package.
Action 3.3: Formally Delink Humanitarian Access from Political Negotiation
The Commission must issue a binding institutional directive establishing that humanitarian access and the protection of civilian populations are non-negotiable obligations under international humanitarian law and the ECOWAS Treaty. These shall not be treated as bargaining chips within political negotiations. This directive establishes an impartial humanitarian baseline that protects the vulnerable and starves extremist narratives of their recruitment material.
STRATEGIC LINE OF EFFORT IV: CONSTRUCT AND DELIVER A TANGIBLE, VISIBLE ECONOMIC COUNTER-OFFER
Economic sanctions, while a legally mandated instrument, have inflicted disproportionate harm on vulnerable populations and have been successfully weaponized by transitional authorities as evidence of ECOWAS hostility. A serious, fully-funded, and rapidly disbursing economic offer that demonstrates the irreplaceable material value of ECOWAS membership is a strategic necessity.
Action 4.1: Capitalize and Launch the ECOWAS Community Livelihood and Border Zone Resilience Facility
The Commission, in partnership with the ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development (EBID) and the African Development Bank, must convene a dedicated donor pledging conference within 120 days to capitalize a substantially expanded, fast-disbursing stabilization instrument. The facility’s exclusive investment focus shall be the cross-border communities whose economic fabric has been destroyed by insecurity and political rupture. Priority projects shall include the rehabilitation of transhumance corridors with negotiated local governance structures, the construction of solar-powered border market infrastructure, and the launch of a massive Community-Based Youth Employment and Apprenticeship Program targeted at displaced youth in frontier zones. All projects must be collaboratively and transparently branded as direct dividends of ECOWAS solidarity.
Action 4.2: Adopt a Unified Institutional Position Linking Debt Relief to Verified Governance Progress
The Authority must adopt a formal Common Position directing its collective diplomatic weight towards aggressive advocacy for a comprehensive, non-punitive, and development-sensitive sovereign debt restructuring framework for all severely affected member states. This advocacy shall be executed at the G20 Common Framework, the IMF Executive Board, and the Paris Club. Critically, the ECOWAS Common Position must explicitly and publicly link a pathway to structural debt relief to the affected state’s independently verified, irreversible progress against the Tier 2 and Tier 3 benchmarks of the Transition Compact. This leverages the international financial architecture as a structurally aligned positive incentive for good-faith engagement, offering a sophisticated alternative to blunt unilateral sanctions.
Action 4.3: Reaffirm and Technically Safeguard the Free Movement Protocol as a Non-Negotiable Community Asset
The Commission must urgently establish a dedicated, technically staffed “Free Movement Safeguard and Facilitation Unit.” This unit’s mandate is to work bilaterally and discretely with all member states, including those in withdrawal processes, to identify and implement the minimal, security-justified, and technically proportionate border management procedures that can preserve the residual functional operation of the Free Movement Protocol for ordinary citizens, even during periods of political estrangement. Preserving this tangible, daily-lived benefit of ECOWAS citizenship protects the human constituency for regional integration and prevents the political fracture from metastasizing into permanent inter-community estrangement.
STRATEGIC LINE OF EFFORT V: INSTITUTIONALIZE A TRANSFORMED STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION AND DIPLOMATIC PROTOCOL
All substantive policy interventions will fail if transmitted through the existing, demonstrably counterproductive communication protocols. A binding institutional transformation of ECOWAS’s mode of public engagement is a standalone strategic priority.
Action 5.1: Institute a Mandatory Linguistic and Register Recalibration Across All Official Communications
The Commission must issue a binding editorial protocol mandating a permanent and institution-wide recalibration of the language employed in all communiqués, declarations, and public statements. The default opening frame of “condemnation, suspension, and ultimatum” must be replaced by a primary, consistent language frame that centers the “non-negotiable, legally binding obligation of ECOWAS to the sustained physical security, human dignity, and economic opportunity of the individual West African citizen.” The primary subjects of all public interventions shall be the identifiable human beings whose lives are affected: the farmer, the trader, the displaced child. This reframes the diplomatic confrontation from a contest between elites into a shared responsibility for protection.
Action 5.2: Permanently Discontinue Mégaphone Diplomacy and Institutionalize a Protocol of Public Humility
The ECOWAS Authority must formally resolve to permanently discontinue the practice of issuing public ultimatum deadlines as an instrument of political mediation. The only regular public updates permitted on the political process shall be confined to measured, independently verified progress on humanitarian deliverables. The substantive, consequential work of political resolution is to be conducted exclusively through the confidential, professional channels of the Permanent Panel of Eminent Persons. This protocol deliberately starves the political crisis of the sensationalist, polarizing public media cycle upon which spoilers and external actors depend, relocating the work of resolution to an environment where trust can be painstakingly reconstructed.
Action 5.3: Launch a Sustained, Decentralized Community-Level Public Diplomacy Campaign
The Commission must design and resource a sustained, decentralized public diplomacy campaign that operates below the level of national media and engages directly with local communities, traditional authorities, women’s associations, and youth networks in border regions. The campaign’s message must be non-polemical and focused exclusively on the tangible, practical benefits of ECOWAS citizenship—the right to travel, to trade, to access education and healthcare across borders—documented through the authentic testimonies of real citizens whose lives have been positively impacted. This ground-level, person-to-person diplomacy rebuilds the popular constituency for regional integration from the bottom up, countering the top-down, state-controlled narratives that currently dominate the information space.
Dr. Tolulope A. Adegoke, AMBP-UN is a globally recognized scholar-practitioner and thought leader at the nexus of security, governance, and strategic leadership. His mission is dedicated to advancing ethical governance, strategic human capital development, resilient nation building, and global peace. He can be reached via: tolulopeadegoke01@gmail.com, globalstageimpacts@gmail.com
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Opinion
A Vindicating Truth: A Factual Presentation on the Supreme Court’s Intervention in the ADC Leadership Matter
Published
1 week agoon
May 4, 2026By
Eric
By Comrade IG Wala
To All Nigerians, Party Stakeholders, and Lovers of Democracy,
In the life of every great political movement, there comes a moment where the noise of confusion meets the silence of the Law. For the African Democratic Congress (ADC), that moment arrived on April 30, 2026.
For months, the ADC was held in a state of judicial paralysis caused by a lower court order that froze the party’s activities. This order did not just affect a few leaders, it threatened to delete the ADC from the Nigerian political map and disenfranchise millions of supporters ahead of the 2027 General Elections.
Today, we present the facts of the Supreme Court’s intervention to ensure that every Nigerian, from the city centers to the grassroots, understands that Justice has spoken, and the ADC is alive.
The Three Pillars of the Supreme Court’s Ruling:
1. The End of Paralysis (The Status Quo Order)!
The Supreme Court, led by Justice Mohammed Garba, was clear and firm: the Court of Appeal’s order to maintain a “status quo” was improper and unwarranted. The apex court recognized that you cannot freeze a political party indefinitely without a trial. By setting this aside, the Supreme Court rescued the ADC from a leadership vacuum that was being used to justify de-recognition by INEC.
2. The Restoration of Administrative Legitimacy.
By nullifying the appellate court’s freeze, the Supreme Court effectively restored the David Mark-led National Working Committee to its rightful place. This means that for all official, administrative, and electoral purposes, the ADC now has a recognized head. The party is no longer a ship without a captain; the doors of the headquarters are open, and the party’s name remains firmly on the ballot.
3. The Order for a Fresh Trial on Merits.
True to the principles of fair hearing, the Supreme Court did not simply gift the party to one side. Instead, it ordered the case back to the Federal High Court for an accelerated hearing. This is a victory for the Truth. It means the court is not interested in technicalities or stopping the clock, it wants to see the evidence, read the Party Constitution, and deliver a final judgment based on the Right vs. Wrong.
Note: I will drop the 7 prayers made to Supreme Court by ADC in the comment section.
A Message to Our Members and Supporters.
To our members who have felt a sense of fear, apprehension, or a lack of confidence in the Nigerian courts, let your hearts be at peace.
It is a delusion to believe that gross injustice can simply walk through the doors of our highest courts unnoticed. This matter is currently one of the most publicized and people-centric cases in Nigeria. In such a bright spotlight, the Judiciary acts not just as a judge, but as a shield for the common man.
The Law is not a tool for the crafty, it is a searchlight for the Truth.
Inasmuch as they say the Law is blind, it sees with perfect clarity the difference between a lie and the truth, between right and wrong. The Supreme Court’s refusal to let the ADC be strangled by procedural delays is proof that the system works for those who stand on the side of justice.
Our confidence is not in personalities, but in the Process. We are returning to the Federal High Court not with fear, but with the armor of Truth.
The Handshake remains strong, the vision is clear, and our participation in the 2027 elections is now legally anchored.
Stand tall. The ADC has been tested by the fire of the courts, and we have emerged not just intact, but vindicated.
Signed,
Comrade, IG Wala.
02/04/26. — with Shareef Kamba and 14 others.
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Opinion
The Police is Your Friend and Other Lies We No Longer Believe
Published
1 week agoon
May 4, 2026By
Eric
By Boma Lilian Braide (Esq.)
There was a time in Nigeria when the phrase The Police is Your Friend was not a national joke. It was a civic assurance, a symbolic handshake between the state and its citizens. It represented the ideal of a civil security architecture built on trust, service, and protection. Today, that once reassuring slogan has decayed into a bitter irony. It no longer evokes safety; it provokes fear. It no longer signals partnership; it signals danger. What should have been the soul of Nigerian civil state relations has become a cruel parody of our lived experience at checkpoints, stations, and on the streets.
The Nigerian security apparatus has undergone a transformation so profound that it now resembles a predatory machine rather than a protective institution. The sight of a police patrol vehicle, which should ordinarily bring comfort, now triggers anxiety. Citizens instinctively brace themselves, not for assistance, but for extortion, harassment, or violence. We are not merely witnessing isolated incidents of misconduct. We are watching a pattern of state enabled brutality unfold in real time, a pattern so consistent that it feels like a televised execution of the social contract. In this grim theatre, the Nigerian state often appears not as the protector but as the principal aggressor.
On Sunday, April 26th 2026, the quiet air of Effurun in Delta State was shattered by the crack of a service pistol. What should have been an ordinary Sunday afternoon became the final chapter in the life of twenty-eight year old Mene Ogidi. A viral video, barely two minutes long, captured the horrifying scene. Ogidi sat on the dusty ground, his hands tied behind him with a rope. He was unarmed, exhausted, and pleading in his mother tongue for a chance to explain himself. Standing over him was a man in plain clothes, a man sworn to protect the very life he was about to extinguish. Assistant Superintendent of Police Nuhu Usman raised his pistol and fired two shots at close range into the body of a restrained, helpless citizen.
This was not a confrontation. It was not a crossfire. It was not a struggle for a weapon. It was an execution. A daylight assassination carried out by a state paid officer who felt so insulated by impunity that he performed his violence in front of a digital audience. The collective outrage that followed was not simply about one death. It was the eruption of a nation that has watched this script repeat itself far too many times.
Barely days later, in Dei-Dei Abuja, another life was cut short. A National Youth Service Corps member was shot inside his father’s compound. Authorities described it as a mistake during a crossfire, but the silence that followed spoke louder than any official explanation. These tragedies are not anomalies. They are symptoms of a deep institutional rot, a rot that has turned the badge into a license for violence rather than a symbol of service.
Extrajudicial killings in Nigeria represent a direct assault on the fundamental right to life and the presumption of innocence. When a law enforcement officer assumes the roles of accuser, judge, and executioner, the very foundation of the state begins to crumble. In the case of Mene Ogidi, the Delta State Police Command admitted that the officer acted in gross violation of Force Order 237, the regulation governing the use of firearms. This admission is significant because it reveals that the problem is not the absence of rules. The problem is the collapse of discipline, the erosion of accountability, and the entrenchment of a culture of impunity.
Between 2020 and 2025, Nigerian security agencies were implicated in nearly six hundred violent incidents against civilians, resulting in more than eight hundred deaths. The Nigeria Police Force accounted for over half of these fatalities. These numbers paint a disturbing picture. The institutions funded by taxpayers to provide security have become one of the greatest threats to their safety.
The psychology behind this brutality is rooted in the absence of consequences. When officers believe that nothing will happen after they pull the trigger, the threshold for using lethal force drops to zero. In the Effurun case, reports suggest that the suspect was even transported to a station after the initial shooting, only to be shot again. This level of cruelty reflects a complete dehumanization of the citizenry. The victim is no longer seen as a person with rights. He becomes a disposable suspect. This mindset is a legacy of the defunct SARS unit, whose methods and mentality continue to shape policing culture. Rebranding SARS into SWAT or the Rapid Response Squad means nothing if the same men, trained in the same violent ethos, continue to operate with the same predatory instincts.
The Nigerian police system has evolved from a flawed institution into what many citizens now describe as a state sponsored cartel. The Zero Tolerance mantra often repeated by the Inspector General of Police, Olatunji Disu, has become a public relations slogan that evaporates at every checkpoint. The immediate dismissal and recommended prosecution of ASP Usman and his team may satisfy the public’s immediate hunger for justice, but it does not address the deeper institutional vacuum that allowed an officer to believe he could execute a restrained suspect without consequence. If accountability only occurs when a video goes viral, then we are not being policed. We are being hunted by a uniformed gang that is occasionally caught on camera.
This raises critical questions. Where were the superior officers? Where was the Area Commander while this culture of execution was taking root? Command responsibility in Nigeria remains a myth. Until a Commissioner of Police is removed for the actions of their subordinates, there will be no internal incentive to reform. The decay is structural. We are recruiting frustrated individuals, training them in aggression rather than professionalism, and unleashing them on a population they are conditioned to view with suspicion and contempt.
The mistake narrative used in the Abuja NYSC shooting reflects this tactical incompetence. A professional force does not mistake a youth corper in his bedroom for a combatant. Nigerians are effectively subsidising their own endangerment, paying for the bullets that cut down their brightest young citizens. A nation cannot survive this level of uniformed recklessness. The state has lost its monopoly on violence to its own agents. When police officers fear the citizen’s camera more than they respect the citizen’s life, the system has failed.
Five years after the historic 2020 End SARS protests, the systemic reforms promised by government remain largely unfulfilled. Only a handful of states have implemented the recommendations of the judicial panels or compensated victims. The National Human Rights Commission reported in July 2025 that it had received over three hundred thousand complaints of abuses. This staggering figure reflects the scale of the crisis. While the current Inspector General has introduced new regulations to align the Police Act of 2020 with operational realities, the gap between a gazetted document in Abuja and a patrol team in Delta remains vast.
The solution to this bloodletting must be radical and structural. First, police oversight must be decentralised. Relying on Force Headquarters in Abuja to discipline an officer in a remote community is inefficient and ineffective. Each state should have an independent, citizen led oversight board with the authority to recommend immediate suspension and prosecution without interference from the police hierarchy.
Second, Force Order 237 must be overhauled to strictly limit the use of firearms to situations where there is an immediate and verifiable threat to life. Under no circumstances should a restrained or surrendering suspect be shot.
Third, Nigeria must address the mental health and welfare of police officers. Men who live in dilapidated barracks, earn inadequate wages, and operate under constant stress are more likely to lash out at the public. However, poverty cannot be an excuse for murder. Welfare reform must go hand in hand with strict accountability.
Finally, justice must not only be done but must be seen to be done. The trial of ASP Usman and others like him should be public, transparent, and swift. It must serve as a deterrent that resonates in every police station across the country. The era of secret disciplinary rooms must end. Nigeria must invest in technology driven policing, not only in weapons but in body cameras and digital accountability systems. When officers know they are being recorded, hesitation replaces recklessness.
A NATIONAL CALL TO ACTION
The era of Orderly Room secrecy must end. Nigeria must decentralise police disciplinary trials, moving them from closed sessions in Abuja to open, civilian led inquiries in the states where the abuses occur. A National Firearms Audit is urgently needed. Every officer must account for every round issued, and any missing ammunition should trigger automatic suspension for the entire chain of command.
The National Assembly must fast track the Victims of Police Brutality Trust Fund, ensuring that compensation becomes a legal right funded directly from the budgets of offending commands. Nigeria must stop being a nation of post script outrage. Command responsibility must become law. If an officer under a Commissioner’s watch executes a handcuffed suspect, that Commissioner must lose their job alongside the shooter.
The blood of Mene Ogidi and the NYSC member in Dei Dei is a stain on our national conscience. It is a reminder that as long as one Nigerian can be tied up and shot without trial, no Nigerian is truly safe. Silence is no longer an option. Waiting for the next viral video is no longer acceptable. The time to demand change is now.
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Opinion
Kwankwaso-Obi Anti-Coalition Alliance and the Perception of the North
Published
1 week agoon
May 3, 2026By
Eric
By Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba
Let’s not sugarcoat it, what is unfolding is not just political maneuvering for 2027, but a carefully calculated roadmap to 2031. Anyone who believes Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is acting out of patriotism or prioritizing Nigeria above his personal ambition is simply ignoring the pattern before us. His willingness to deputise Peter Obi is not born out of ideological alignment or national interest, it appears to be a strategic move aimed at one target weakening Atiku Abubakar and ensuring he does not emerge as president in 2027.
Kwankwaso’s real calculation seems anchored in 2031. He understands that as long as Atiku remains active and contesting, his own presidential ambition struggles to gain traction, especially in the North where Atiku’s influence remains deeply rooted. By positioning himself in a way that could undermine Atiku now, he potentially clears the path for himself later, when he can conveniently lean on the “it is the turn of the North” narrative with stronger moral leverage. This is not about helping Obi win, it is about ensuring Atiku is completely removed from the equation.
It is also important to state plainly that Kwankwaso is fully aware of his electoral limitations in this arrangement. He knows he cannot significantly attract Northern votes for Obi beyond a few pockets, even within Kano State. And even there, the good people of Kano are far more politically aware and discerning than to be swayed purely by sentiment. This makes the entire proposition even more questionable, if the electoral value is limited, then the intention behind the alliance becomes even clearer. It suggests that even if he joins an Obi ticket, it is not driven by a genuine commitment to Obi, the Igbo, the South-East or Nigeria but by a broader personal calculation.
Northerners must understand that this is a long game, and every move appears deliberately designed. Kwankwaso seems cautious not to overtly confirm growing suspicions that he is working, directly or indirectly, to the advantage of Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Yet, many are beginning to connect the dots. The belief that there is an underlying alignment is gaining ground, especially when actions repeatedly result in one outcome, a divided North that weakens its collective electoral strength, a repeatation of 2023 in a different style. The alignment of Kwankwaso’s political godson and the governor of Kano Abba Kabir Yusuf with Tinubu only fuels this perception, suggesting a dual-front approach: one operating directly and visibly, the other indirectly and subtly.
This is not the first time such a pattern is being observed. Many Northerners still recall similar dynamics from 2023, and recent developments have only intensified the conversation. In fact, within just the last 24 hours, the level of criticism and open dissatisfaction directed at Kwankwaso across Northern Nigeria has been unprecedented. What was once dismissed as mere suspicion of a quiet alliance is now, in the eyes of many, being confirmed by actions seen as disruptive to any meaningful coalition.
For Kwankwaso, this moment carries significant weight. The long-circulating “sellout” label, which many had hesitated to firmly attach, now appears to be finding a resting place in public discourse. Should he once again position himself outside a collective Northern arrangement, that perception may become permanently entrenched.
The implications for the North are serious. Voting Obi because of Kwankwaso, which is unlikely, could fracture an already consolidated political base, reduce its bargaining power, and ultimately produce outcomes that do not reflect its true strength. The North has never historically rejected a dominant figure like Atiku in favor of a subordinate position, nor has it embraced a configuration where its most established candidate is sidelined. The idea that the region would choose Kwankwaso as a deputy while overlooking Atiku as a president is not just improbable, it runs contrary to established Northern political behavior.
What is at stake goes beyond individual ambition. The North is fully conscious of the stakes and increasingly resolute in its direction. There is a growing determination to stand firmly behind its own Atiku Abubakar, to protect its collective political strength, and to resist any arrangement that appears designed to divide it. The signals are clear, the North has decided, and it will not fall into what many perceive as calculated traps, whether from Kwankwaso or from forces seen as working against its cohesion and democratic leverage….
Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba writes from Kano, and can be reached via drssbaba@yahoo.com
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