Opinion
ECN, NEPA, PHCN and DISCOs: How Nigerians Pay for Darkness (Pt. 4)
Published
3 years agoon
By
Eric
By Mike Ozekhome
INTRODUCTION
In our last three outings on this vexed re-occurring issue, the poor performance of Nigeria’s hitherto state-controlled power sector, resulting in unstable electricity supply and frequent blackouts, has long been seen by ordinary Nigerians as evidence of the ineffectiveness of the government. However, the situation has not improved much since the privatisation of much of the power sector in recent years, even with continued government subsidies for some users. Today, we shall further x-ray other jurisdiction draw the curtain and proffer possible solutions for reliable electricity in Nigeria.
ELECTRICITY GENERATION & SUPPLY IN SOME COUNTRIES (Continues)
According to a study by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, existing U.S. electricity infrastructure has sufficient capacity to meet about 73% of the energy needs of the country’s light-duty vehicles. According to deployment models developed by researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the diversity of household electricity loads and EV loads should allow introduction and growth of the PEV market while “smart grid” networks expand. Smart grid networks allow for two-way communication between the utility and its customers, and sensing along transmission lines through smart meters, smart appliances, renewable energy resources, and energy efficient resources. Smart grid networks may provide the capability to monitor and protect residential distribution infrastructure from any negative impacts due to increased vehicle demand for electricity because they promote charging during off-peak periods, and reduce costs to utilities, grid operators, and consumers. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) analysis also demonstrated the potential for synergies between Plug-in Electronic Vehicles (PEVs) and distributed sources of renewable energy. For example, small-scale renewables, like solar panels on a rooftop, can both provide clean energy for vehicles and reduce demand on distribution infrastructure by generating electricity near the point of use. Utilities, vehicle manufacturers, charging equipment manufacturers, and researchers are working to ensure that PEVs are smoothly integrated into the U.S. electricity infrastructure. Some utilities offer lower rates at off-peak times to encourage residential vehicle charging when electricity demand is lowest. Vehicles and many types of charging equipment (also known as Electric Vehicle Supply Equipment (EVSE) can be programmed to delay charging to off-peak times. “Smart” models are even capable of communicating with the grid, load aggregators, or facility/home owners, enabling them to charge automatically when electricity demand and prices are best; for example when prices are lowest, aligned with local distribution needs (such as temperature constraints), or aligned with renewable generation.
HOW THE POWER HOLDING COMPANIES HAVE BEEN GIVING OUTRAGEOUS BILLS IN NIGERIA
Electricity consumers in various parts of the country have been groaning under the outrageous electricity bills foisted on them by the distribution companies. Ideally, the amount of money paid by an electricity consumer should depend on the number of appliances used in a building, for how long they are run and the customer class the building falls under. We have eleven Distribution Companies (DISCOs), and since then we have been dancing Reggae in darkness. So, we have sub entities like Eko Distribution Company, Ikeja Distribution Company, Port Harcourt Distribution Company, Kaduna Electricity Distribution Company, Benin Electricity Distribution Company, Jos Electricity Distribution Company, Ibadan Electricity Distribution Company etc. etc. Successive governments have tried but failed to reform Nigeria’s energy sector.
The new trick they use to reap off Nigerians is the use of Estimated billing system. This is the practice of billing where the electricity provider does not need to read your meter to ascertain what a customer consumes before billing him. The service provider results to this when a customer is not metered and on some occasions even those with meters get billed out of guesses by those in charge of billing. The old practice for billing used to be that certain staff covering a given area is sent to check meters and with this get the details as to how much is being consumed. Since, they because lazy all of a sudden, all they do is make guesses and bill customers outrageously.
The challenge of metering the customers is a situation that predates the current private service providers. The situation existed even at the time when government through NEPA/ PHCN, provided the electricity service and what was employed to recoup some investment then was the use of estimated billing. The difference however, is that while government may not insist on recouping every kobo it put in to provide the service, the private operators would not only insist on recouping but would ensure that its makes profit from its investment. The private operators, who privately source for funds to invest and provide the service, is now biting deeper and harder into its customers pocket to repay their debts to the debtors, service their logistics and make profits for their shareholders. This explains why they outrageously reap Nigerians and the government cannot question those who are responsible for this havoc.
Even at this rate, the Distribution Companies (DISCOs) service providers have continually to complain of revenue losses, expressing fear of failure to service their debts if the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission continues to turn down their request for upward review of electricity tariff. Their excuse is that the tariff is not realistic and not cost reflective. Thus far, the commission has stood its ground and refusing to yield ground, saying they must come forward with cogent and verifiable reason why their needs should be met.
NIGERIA’S METERING SYSTEM
Metering is referred to as use of installed device to determine the amount of electricity power consumed by the end user. It enables measurement of electrical energy. This system can be either postpaid metering or prepaid metering. Postpaid was predominantly used in Nigeria decades ago and it is still in use in places where prepaid have not been installed. Postpaid metering is the use of metering device that affords reading and determination of the amount of electricity consumed to which the end user is billed to pay after using the electricity for a certain period, usually a month. The system is fraught with series of challenges that covers estimation of bills rather that gives room for DISCOs to cheat the electricity consumer overpriced energy consumption, associated unfairness in the billing method and bypassing of the meter by consumers. On the other hand, prepaid metering offers the electricity consumer to buy credits such that electricity usage is limited to the credit unit purchased. It is where an electricity consumer pays for the electricity prior to its usage. It is worthy of note that the huge electricity consumer debt profile and difficulties in bill/revenue collection were some of the drivers of prepaid metering in Nigeria. This approach provides electricity consumers with the opportunity to track their electricity spending as well as being able to check the credit unit balance. Service providers as well benefit from prepaid metering through reduction in electricity associated costs, bad debts reduction, improved cash flow, and detection and management of power outages. The implication is that the prepaid metering offers a leeway as well as means of encouraging and sustaining the attitude of regular payment of electricity used by the consumer. Meanwhile, this does not imply that prepaid metering does not present its own challenges as evidenced in many African nations like Uganda and Rwanda.
Some unmetered electricity consumers have been complaining of receiving outrageous estimated bills from the electricity distribution companies. There has not been an official implementation of any hike in tariffs by the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission, some consumers under the various distribution franchise areas alleged that estimated electricity bills had been on the rise, year in, year out. It was also gathered from consumers that aside electricity bill concerns, they were also worried by the irregular supply of electricity across the country and this has caused many consumers to exit the national power grid. For instance, on July 6, 2021, the ministries of Works and Housing and Environment officially moved away from receiving power from the grid.
The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry, LCCI, whose members are ripped off by the outrageous electricity bills, joined in calling on the National Electricity Regulatory Commission, NERC, to urgently address the growing concerns of electricity consumers who are inundated monthly with over-bloated bills. LCCI also called for an urgent review of the concept of fixed charges.
POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS FOR RELIABLE ELECTRICITY IN NIGERIA
Study Advanced Countries: There are so many countries that have succeeded in having 24 hours electricity supply, year in and year out. One of such countries is the United States of America. It would go a long way if Nigeria can work with the United States to fix this perennial problem. A team of engineers could be sent to the US to understudy their method of power generation and supply and that model can be adapted in Nigeria to curb inadequate power supply in Nigeria.
PUBLIC/PRIVATE COLLABORATION: One of the present complaints about the electricity distribution companies is their irregular billing which many Nigerians term exorbitant. Since Nigerians complain that power supply has greatly dropped but monthly electricity bills have skyrocketed. They also lament that meters are never checked and bills are estimated out of the blues.
GRANTS: Many organizations can give money to improve the general infrastructure directly. The World Bank gave Nigeria one such grant in 2018 of around $500 million. This money focuses on increasing access to and stabilizing the already existing power grid that supports 50% of the population. Although $500 million may seem like a lot of money, it’s an investment that can pay off for American and other developed countries’ businesses, as Nigerians can make more wealth and spend it in other parts of the world.
UPGRADE OF TRANSMISSION EQUIPMENT: No doubt Nigeria is under producing electricity. This is not necessarily from non-availability of power plants. It is as a result of the fact that some of these power plants do not work. The power generated nationwide thus drops because of the non-functional plants. In order to fix this problem, the available power plants and other equipment for the generation and distribution of electricity should be fixed and properly maintained.
INCREASE IN EFFICIENCY BY NERC: The National Electricity Regulatory Commission also known as NERC as the body responsible for regulating electricity in Nigeria should up their game in the efficiency of carrying out their duties. Since the commission is responsible for forming electricity tariffs, reviewing of power tariffs and promotes electricity policies, they should do so considering that most Nigerians pay heavily without actually enjoying electricity supply. They should upgrade their policies to a level that is environment friendly. Apart from NERC there are several other agencies that have control over power in Nigeria. They are: Federal Ministry of Power, Nigeria Atomic Energy Commission, Nigerian Bulk Electricity Trading Company Plc and Nigeria Electricity Liability Management Company. To improve the power sector, these agencies should come up with better policies that would build on efficient, past policies and do away with impractical and inefficient policies.
USAGE OF MORE SOLAR ENERGY
Solar power is simply using the sun’s light as energy. This can be done by using a solar cell to convert the sun’s light into electricity, using solar thermal panels that use sunlight to heat air and water, or passively using the sun’s energy by letting sunlight enter through windows to heat a building. Thereby converting a natural source (the sun) into electricity. This alternative is rapidly becoming the trend in Nigeria as it can be spotted in most hoses and businesses. It is economically and environmentally friendly and allows for heavy equipment to be used by solar. Also, innovative and new products are coming up which do not use electricity as a power source but rather use solar in Nigeria. (The End).
THE WORLD WE LIVE IN
“Humans cry for the dead and keep malice with the living, then envy the successful and avoid the broke…… What a world”.
THOUGHT FOR THE WEEK
“We believe that electricity exists, because the electric company keeps sending us bills for it, but we cannot figure out how it travels inside wires.” (Dave Barry)
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Opinion
Reimagining the African Leadership Paradigm: A Comprehensive Blueprint
Published
3 days agoon
January 10, 2026By
Eric
By Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD
“To lead Africa forward is to move from transactional authority to transformational stewardship—where institutions outlive individuals, data informs vision, and service is the only valid currency of governance” – Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD
The narrative of African leadership in the 21st century stands at a critical intersection of profound potential and persistent paradox. The continent, pulsating with the world’s youngest demographic and endowed with immense natural wealth, nonetheless contends with systemic challenges that stifle its ascent. This divergence between capacity and outcome signals not merely a failure of policy, but a deeper crisis of leadership philosophy and practice. As the global order undergoes seismic shifts, the imperative for African nations to fundamentally re-strategize their approach to governance has transitioned from an intellectual exercise to an existential necessity. Nigeria, by virtue of its demographic heft, economic scale, and cultural influence, serves as the continent’s most significant crucible for this transformation. The journey of Nigerian leadership from its current state to its potential apex offers a blueprint not only for its own 200 million citizens but for an entire continent in search of a new compass.
Deconstructing the Legacy Model: A Diagnosis of Systemic Failure
To construct a resilient future, we must first undertake an unflinching diagnosis of the present. The prevailing leadership archetype across much of Africa, with clear manifestations in Nigeria’s political economy, is built upon a foundation that has proven tragically unfit for purpose. This model is characterized by several interlocking dysfunctions:
· The Primacy of Transactional Politics Over Transformational Vision: Governance has too often been reduced to a complex system of transactions—votes exchanged for short-term patronage, positions awarded for loyalty over competence, and resource allocation serving political expediency rather than national strategy. This erodes public trust and makes long-term, cohesive planning impossible.
· The Tyranny of the Short-Term Electoral Cycle: Leadership decisions are frequently held hostage to the next election, sacrificing strategic investments in education, infrastructure, and industrialization on the altar of immediate, visible—yet fleeting—gains. This creates a perpetual cycle of reactive governance, preventing the execution of decade-spanning national projects.
· Administrative Silos and Bureaucratic Inertia: Government ministries and agencies often operate as isolated fiefdoms, with limited inter-departmental collaboration. This siloed approach fragments policy implementation, leads to contradictory initiatives, and renders the state apparatus inefficient and unresponsive to complex, cross-sectoral challenges like climate change, public health, and national security.
· The Demographic Disconnect: Africa’s most potent asset is its youth. Yet, a vast governance gap separates a dynamic, digitally-native, and globally-aware generation from political structures that remain opaque, paternalistic, and slow to adapt. This disconnect fuels alienation, brain drain, and social unrest.
· The Weakness of Institutions and the Cult of Personality: When the strength of a state is vested in individuals rather than institutions, it creates systemic vulnerability. Independent judiciaries, professional civil services, and credible electoral commissions are weakened, leading to arbitrariness in the application of law, erosion of meritocracy, and a deep-seated crisis of public confidence.
The tangible outcomes of this flawed model are the headlines that define the continent’s challenges: infrastructure deficits that strangle commerce, public education and healthcare systems in states of distress, jobless economic growth, multifaceted security threats, and the chronic hemorrhage of human capital. To re-strategize leadership is to directly address these outputs by redesigning the very system that produces them.
Pillars of a Reformed Leadership Architecture: A Holistic Framework
The new leadership paradigm must be constructed not as a minor adjustment, but as a holistic architectural endeavor. It requires foundational pillars that are interdependent, mutually reinforcing, and built to endure beyond political transitions.
1. The Philosophical Core: Embracing Servant-Leadership and Ethical Stewardship
The most profound change must be internal—a recalibration of the leader’s fundamental purpose. The concept of the leader as a benevolent “strongman” must give way to the model of the servant-leader. This philosophy, rooted in both timeless African communal values (ubuntu) and modern ethical governance, posits that the true leader exists to serve the people, not vice versa. It is characterized by deep empathy, radical accountability, active listening, and a commitment to empowering others. Success is measured not by the leader’s personal accumulation of power or wealth, but by the tangible flourishing, security, and expanded opportunities of the citizenry. This ethos fosters trust, the essential currency of effective governance.
2. Strategic Foresight and Evidence-Based Governance
Leadership must be an exercise in building the future, not just administering the present. This requires the collaborative development of a clear, compelling, and inclusive national vision—a strategic narrative that aligns the energies of government, private sector, and civil society. For Nigeria, frameworks like Nigeria’s Agenda 2050 and the National Development Plan must be de-politicized and treated as binding national covenants. Furthermore, in the age of big data, governance must transition from intuition-driven to evidence-based. This necessitates significant investment in data collection, analytics, and policy-informing research. Whether designing social safety nets, deploying security resources, or planning agricultural subsidies, decisions must be illuminated by rigorous data, ensuring efficiency, transparency, and measurable impact.
3. Institutional Fortification: Building the Enduring Pillars of State
A nation’s longevity and stability are directly proportional to the strength and independence of its institutions. Re-strategizing leadership demands an unwavering commitment to institutional architecture:
· An Impervious Judiciary: The rule of law must be absolute, with a judicial system insulated from political and financial influence, guaranteeing justice for the powerful and the marginalized alike.
· Electoral Integrity as Sacred Trust: Democratic legitimacy springs from credible elections. Investing in independent electoral commissions, transparent technology, and robust legal frameworks is non-negotiable for political stability.
· A Re-professionalized Civil Service: The bureaucracy must be transformed into a merit-driven, technologically adept, and well-remunerated engine of state, shielded from the spoils system and empowered to implement policy effectively.
· Robust, Transparent Accountability Ecosystems: Anti-corruption agencies require genuine operational independence, adequate funding, and protection. Complementing this, transparent public procurement platforms and mandatory asset declarations for public officials must become normalized practice.
4. Collaborative and Distributed Leadership: The Power of the Collective
The monolithic state cannot solve wicked problems alone. The modern leader must be a convener-in-chief, architecting platforms for sustained collaboration. This involves actively fostering a triple-helix partnership:
· The Public Sector sets the vision, regulates, and provides enabling infrastructure.
· The Private Sector drives investment, innovation, scale, and job creation.
· Academia and Civil Society contribute research, grassroots intelligence, independent oversight, and specialized implementation capacity.
This model distributes responsibility, leverages diverse expertise, and fosters innovative solutions—from public-private partnerships in infrastructure to tech-driven civic engagement platforms.
5. Human Capital Supremacy: The Ultimate Strategic Investment
A nation’s most valuable asset walks on two feet. Re-strategized leadership places a supreme, non-negotiable priority on developing human potential. For Nigeria and Africa, this demands a generational project:
· Revolutionizing Education: Curricula must be overhauled to foster critical thinking, digital literacy, STEM proficiency, and entrepreneurial mindset—skills for the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Investment in teacher training and educational infrastructure is paramount.
· Building a Preventive, Resilient Health System: Focus must shift from curative care in central hospitals to robust, accessible primary healthcare. A healthy population is a productive population, forming the basis of economic resilience.
· Creating an Enabling Environment for Talent: Beyond education and health, leadership must provide the ecosystem where talent can thrive: reliable electricity, ubiquitous broadband, access to venture capital, and a regulatory environment that encourages innovation and protects intellectual property. The goal is to make the domestic environment more attractive than the diaspora for the continent’s best minds.
6. Assertive, Strategic Engagement in Global Affairs
African leadership must shed any vestiges of a supplicant mentality and adopt a posture of strategic agency. This means actively shaping continental and global agendas:
· Leveraging the AfCFTA: Moving beyond signing agreements to actively dismantling non-tariff barriers, harmonizing standards, and investing in cross-border infrastructure to turn the agreement into a real engine of intra-African trade and industrialization.
· Diplomacy for Value Creation: Foreign policy should be strategically deployed to attract sustainable foreign direct investment, secure technology transfer agreements, and build partnerships based on mutual benefit, not aid dependency.
· Advocacy for Structural Reform: African leaders must collectively and persistently advocate for reforms in global financial institutions and multilateral forums to ensure a more equitable international system.
The Nigerian Imperative: From National Challenges to a National Charter
Applying this framework to Nigeria requires translating universal principles into specific, context-driven actions:
· Integrated Security as a Foundational Priority: Security strategy must be comprehensive, blending advanced intelligence capabilities, professionalized security forces, with parallel investments in community policing, youth employment programs in high-risk areas, and accelerated development to address the root causes of instability.
· A Determined Pursuit of Economic Complexity: Leadership must orchestrate a decisive shift from rent-seeking in the oil sector to value creation across diversified sectors: commercialized agriculture, light and advanced manufacturing, a thriving creative industry, and a dominant digital services sector.
· Constitutional and Governance Re-engineering: To harness its diversity, Nigeria requires a sincere national conversation on restructuring. This likely entails moving towards a more authentic federalism with greater fiscal autonomy for states, devolution of powers, and mechanisms that ensure equitable resource distribution and inclusive political representation.
· Pioneering a Just Energy Transition: Nigeria must craft a unique energy pathway—strategically utilizing its gas resources for domestic industrialization and power generation, while simultaneously positioning itself as a regional hub for renewable energy technology, investment, and innovation.
Conclusion: A Collective Endeavor of Audacious Hope
Re-strategizing leadership in Africa and in Nigeria is not an event, but a generational process. It is not the abandonment of culture but its evolution—melding the deep African traditions of community, consensus, and elder wisdom with the modern imperatives of transparency, innovation, and individual rights. This task extends far beyond the political class. It is a summons to a new generation of leaders in every sphere: the tech entrepreneur in Yaba, the reform-minded civil servant in Abuja, the agri-preneur in Kebbi, the investigative journalist in Lagos, and the community activist in the Niger Delta.
Ultimately, this is an endeavor of audacious hope. It is the conscious choice to build systems stronger than individuals, institutions more enduring than terms of office, and a national identity richer than our ethnic sum. Nigeria possesses all the requisite raw materials for greatness: human brilliance, cultural richness, and natural bounty. The final, indispensable ingredient is a leadership strategy worthy of its people. The blueprint is now detailed; the call to action is urgent. The future awaits not our complaints, but our constructive and courageous labor. Let the work begin in earnest.
Dr. Tolulope A. Adegoke is a globally recognized scholar-practitioner and thought leader at the nexus of security, governance, and strategic leadership. His work addresses complex institutional challenges, with a specialized focus on West African security dynamics, conflict resolution, and sustainable development.
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Opinion
Rivers State: Two Monkeys Burn the Village to Prove They Are Loyal to Jagaban
Published
6 days agoon
January 7, 2026By
Eric
By Sly Edaghese
Teaser
Rivers State is not collapsing by accident. It is being offered as a sacrifice. Two men, driven by fear of irrelevance and hunger for protection, have chosen spectacle over stewardship—setting fire to a whole people’s future just to prove who kneels better before power.
There comes a point when a political tragedy degenerates into farce, and the farce mutates into a curse. Rivers State has crossed that point. What is unfolding there is not governance, not even conflict—it is ritual madness, a grotesque contest in which two men are willing to burn an entire state just to be noticed by one man sitting far away in Abuja.
This is not ambition.
This is desperation wearing designer jacket.
At the center of this inferno stand two performers who have mistaken power for immortality and loyalty for slavery. One is a former god. The other is a former servant. Both are now reduced to naked dancers in a marketplace, grinding their teeth and tearing flesh to entertain Jagaban.
The first is Nyesom Wike—once feared, once untouchable, now frantic. A man whose political identity has collapsed into noise, threats, and recycled bravado. His ministerial appointment was never a validation of statesmanship; it was a severance package for betrayal. Tinubu did not elevate Wike because he admired him—he tolerated him because he was useful. And usefulness, in politics, is key, but it has an expiry date.
Wike governed Rivers State not as a public trust but as a private estate. He did not build institutions; he built dependencies. He did not groom leaders; he bred loyalists. Before leaving office, he salted the land with his men—lawmakers, commissioners, council chairmen—so that even in absence, Rivers State would still answer to his shadow. His obsession was simple and sick: if I cannot rule it, no one else must.
Enter Siminalayi Fubara—a man selected, not tested; installed, not trusted by the people but trusted by his maker. Fubara was meant to be an invisible power in a visible office—a breathing signature, a ceremonial governor whose only real duty was obedience.
But power has a way of awakening even the most timid occupant.
Fubara wanted to act like a governor. That single desire triggered a full-scale political assassination attempt—not with bullets, but with institutions twisted into weapons. A state of emergency was declared with obscene haste. The governor was suspended like a naughty schoolboy. His budget was butchered. His local government elections were annulled and replaced with a pre-arranged outcome favorable to his tormentor. Lawmakers who defected and lost their seats by constitutional law were resurrected like political zombies and crowned legitimate.
This was not law.
This was organized humiliation.
And when degradation alone failed, Wike went further—dragging Fubara into a room to sign an agreement that belonged more to a slave plantation than a democratic republic.
One clause alone exposed the rot:
👉 Fubara must never seek a second term.
In plain language: you may warm the chair, but you will never own it.
Then came the most revealing act of all—Wike leaked the agreement himself. A man so intoxicated by dominance that he thought publicizing oppression would strengthen his grip.
That leak was not strategy; it was confession. It told Nigerians that this was never about peace, order, or party discipline—it was about absolute control over another human being.
But history has a cruel sense of humor.
While Wike strutted like a victorious warlord and his loyal lawmakers sharpened new knives, Fubara did something dangerous: he adapted. He studied power where it truly resides. He learned Tinubu’s language—the language of survival, alignment, and betrayal without apology. Then he did what Nigerian politics rewards most:
He crossed over.
Not quietly. Not shamefully. But theatrically. He defected to the APC, raised a party card numbered 001 and crowned himself leader of the party in Rivers State. He pledged to deliver the same Rivers people to Tinubu just as Wike also has pledged.
That moment was not boldness.
It was cold-blooded realism.
And in one stroke, Wike’s myth collapsed.
The once-feared enforcer became a shouting relic—touring local governments like a prophet nobody believes anymore, issuing warnings that land on deaf ears, reminding Nigerians of favors that no longer matter. He threatened APC officials, cursed betrayal, and swore eternal vengeance. But vengeance without access is just noise.
Today, the humiliation is complete.
Fubara enters rooms Wike waits outside.
Presidential aides shake hands with the new alignment.
The old king rants in press conferences, sounding increasingly like a man arguing with a locked door.
And yet, the darkest truth remains: neither of these men cares about Rivers State.
One is fighting to remain relevant.
The other is fighting to remain protected.
The people—the markets, the schools, the roads, the civil servants—are expendable extras in a drama scripted far above their heads.
Some say Tinubu designed this blood sport—unable to discard Wike outright, he simply unleashed his creation against him. Whether genius or negligence, the effect is the same: Rivers State is being eaten alive by ambition.
This is what happens when politics loses shame.
This is what happens when loyalty replaces competence.
This is what happens when leaders treat states like bargaining chips and citizens like ashes.
Two monkeys are burning the village—not to save it, not to rule it—but to prove who can scream loudest while it burns.
And Jagaban watches, hands folded.
But when the fire dies down, when the music stops, when the applause fades, there will be nothing left to govern—only ruins, regret, and two exhausted dancers staring at the ashes, finally realizing that power does not clap forever.
Sly Edaghese sent in this piece from Wisconsin, USA.
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By Pelumi Olajengbesi Esq.
Every student of politics should now be interested in what will be the end of Wike. Wike is one of those names that mean different things to different people within Nigeria’s political culture. To his admirers, he is courage and capacity, to his critics, he is disruption and excess, and to neutral observers like me, he is simply a fascinating case study in the mechanics of power.
In many ways, he was instrumental to the emergence of President Tinubu, and he has long sat like a lord over the politics of Rivers, having pushed aside nearly every person who once mattered in that space. He waged war against his party, the PDP, and drove it to the edge. Wike waged war against his successor and reduced him to submission. He fights anyone who stands in his way.
He is powerful, loved by many, and deeply irritating to many others. Yet for all his strength, one suspects that Wike does not enjoy peace of mind, because before he is done with one fight, another fight is already forming. From Rivers to Ibadan, Abuja to Imo, and across the country, he is the only right man in his own way. He is constantly in motion, constantly in battle, and constantly singing “agreement is agreement,” while forgetting that politics is merely negotiation and renegotiation.
To his credit, Wike may often be the smartest political planner in every room. He reads everybody’s next move and still creates a countermove. In that self image, Governor Fubara was meant to remain on a leash, manageable through pressure, inducement, and the suggestion that any disobedience would be framed as betrayal of the President and the new federal order.
But politics has a way of punishing anyone who believes control is permanent. The moment Fubara joined the APC, the battlefield shifted, and old tricks began to lose their edge. Whether by real alignment, perceived alignment, or even the mere possibility of a different alignment, once Fubara was no longer boxed into the corner Wike designed for him, Wike’s entire method required review. The fight may remain, but the terrain has changed. When terrain changes, power must either adapt or harden into miscalculation.
It is within this context that the gradually brewing crisis deserves careful attention, because what is emerging is not merely another loud exchange, but a visible clash with vital stakeholders within the Tinubu government and the wider ruling party environment. There is now a fixed showdown with the APC National Secretary, a man who is himself not allergic to confrontation, and who understands that a fight, if properly timed, can yield political advantage, institutional relevance, and bargaining power. When such a figure publicly demands that Nyesom Wike should resign as a minister in Tinubu’s cabinet, it is not a joke, It is about who is permitted to exercise influence, in what space, and on what terms. It is also about the anxiety that follows every coalition built on convenience rather than shared identity, because convenience has no constitution and gratitude is not a structure.
Wike embodies that anxiety in its most dramatic form. He is a man inside government, but not fully inside the party that controls government. He is a man whose usefulness to a winning project is undeniable, yet whose political style constantly reminds the winners that he is not naturally theirs. In every ruling party, there is a crucial difference between allies and stakeholders. Allies help you win, and stakeholders own the structure that decides who gets what after victory. Wike’s problem is that he has operated like both. His support for Tinubu, and his capacity to complicate the opposition’s arithmetic, gave him relevance at the centre. That relevance always tempts a man to behave like a co-owner.
Wike has built his political life on the logic of territorial command. He defines the space, polices the gate, punishes disloyalty, rewards submission, and keeps opponents permanently uncertain. That method is brutally effective when a man truly owns and controls the structure, because it produces fear, and fear produces compliance. This is why Wike insists on controlling the Rivers equation, even when that insistence conflicts with the preferences of the national centre.
The APC leadership is not reacting only to words. It is reacting to what the words represent. When a minister speaks as though a state chapter of the ruling party should be treated like a guest in that state’s politics, the party reads it as an attempt to subordinate its internal structure to an external will. Even where the party has tolerated Wike because of what he helped deliver, it cannot tolerate a situation where its own officials begin to look over their shoulders for permission from a man who is not formally one of them. Once a party believes its chain of command is being bypassed, it will choose institutional survival over interpersonal loyalty every time.
Wike’s predicament is the classic risk of power without full institutional belonging. Informal influence can be louder than formal power, but it is also more fragile because it depends on continuous tolerance from those who control formal instruments. These instruments include party hierarchy, candidate selection, and the legitimacy that comes with membership.
An outsider ally can be celebrated while he is useful, but the coalition that celebrates him can begin to step away the moment his methods create more cost than value. The cost is not only electoral, it can also be organisational. A ruling party approaching the next political cycle becomes sensitive to discipline, structure, and coherence. If the leadership suspects that one person’s shadow is creating factions, confusing loyalties, or humiliating party officials, it will attempt to cut that shadow down. It may not do so because it hates the person, but because it fears the disorder and the precedent.
So the question returns with greater urgency, what will be the end of Wike? If it comes, it may not come with fireworks. Strongmen often do not fall through one decisive attack. They are slowly redesigned out of relevance. The end can look like isolation, with quiet withdrawal of access, gradual loss of influence over appointments, and the emergence of new centres of power within the same territory he once treated as private estate. It can look like neutralisation, with Wike remaining in office, but watching the political value of the office drain because the presidency and the party no longer need his battles. It can look like forced realignment, with him compelled to fully submit to the ruling party structure, sacrificing the freedom of being an independent ally, or losing the cover that federal power provides.
Yet it is also possible that his story does not end in collapse, because Wike is not a novice. The same instinct that made him influential can also help him survive if he adapts. But adaptation would require a difficult shift. It would require a move from territorial warfare to coalition management. It would require a move from ruling by fear to ruling by accommodation. It would require a move from being merely feared to being structurally useful without becoming structurally threatening. Wike may be running out of time.
Pelumi Olajengbesi is a Legal Practitioner and Senior Partner at Law Corridor
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