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Nigeria’s Economy Sliding Downwards- World Bank
The World Bank has said that the Nigerian economy has been slipping since 1995 and this continued till 2018.
The bank, in its latest report on the regional economy titled, ‘Africa’s Pulse’, released the taxonomy of growth performance in sub-Saharan Africa, which focused on the macroeconomic and financial features that led to growth resilience on the continent.
According to the bank, the taxonomy is used to help identify the factors that are correlated with success or failure in economic growth performance in sub-Saharan Africa, with emphasis on macroeconomic and financial variables.
The analysis, it said, involved a series of macroeconomic variables for 44 sub-Saharan African countries from 1995 to 2018.
The key elements that determined the positions of each of the 44 sub-Saharan economies in the taxonomy, the World Bank said, included the level of income per capita of the countries; structural transformation, as captured by sectoral value-added share and sectoral employment share; and capital flows.
Others are level and composition of public sector indebtedness, as captured by the general government gross debt and its currency composition, and the outstanding external public debt.
The last of the indicators has to do with governance vis-a-vis government effectiveness, regulatory quality, control of corruption, voice and accountability, political stability, and absence of violence and rule of law.
According to the World Bank, the taxonomy compares the average annual GDP growth rates during 1995–2008 and 2015–2018 against predetermined thresholds.
It also categorised growth performance into five groups: falling behind, slipping, stuck in the middle, improved, and established. The five groups were further reclassified into three groups: Top tercile, middle tercile and bottom tercile.
The Bretton Wood institution said, “If a country’s economic performance declined from 1995–2008 to 2015–18, the country is categorised in the bottom tercile, which includes ‘falling behind’ and ‘slipping.’ If a country’s growth rate remained invariant over time, between 3.5 and 5.4 per cent in both periods, it is categorised in the middle tercile (or stuck in the middle). If a country’s economic performance improved from 1995–2008 to 2015–18, with the growth of more than 5.4 per cent per year, the country is categorised in the top tercile, which includes the ‘improved’ and ‘established’ groups.”
Based on the above classification, the Nigerian economy was categorised alongside 18 other sub-Saharan African economies as slipping having recorded declined economic performance between 1995 and 2018.
The World Bank said, “The bottom tercile consists of 19 countries: Angola, Burundi, Botswana, the Republic of Congo, the Comoros , Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Liberia, Lesotho, Mauritania, Malawi, Namibia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Eswatini, Chad, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe. These countries did not show any progress in their economic performance from 1995–2008 to 2015–18. For instance, their median economic growth rate decelerated, from 5.4 per cent per year in 1995–2008 to 1.2 per cent per year in 2015–18.”
The bottom performing economies, according to the World Bank, produce almost 60 per cent of the region’s total GDP, emphasising that the three largest countries in the region—Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola—and many commodity exporters are in this group.
Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Mali, Rwanda, Senegal, and Tanzania made the top tercile.
The middle tercile countries are Benin, the Central African Republic, Cameroon, the
Democratic Republic of Congo, Cabo Verde, The Gambia, Madagascar, Mozambique, Mauritius, Niger, Sudan, São Tomé and Príncipe, Togo, and Uganda.
The World Bank also cut its growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa this year to 2.8 per cent from an initial 3.3 per cent.
The commodity price slump of 2015 cut short a decade of rapid growth for the region, and the bank said growth would take longer to recover as a decline in industrial production and a trade dispute between China and the United States take their toll.
The bank’s 2019 forecast means economic growth will lag population growth for the fourth year in a row and it will remain stuck below three per cent, which it slipped to in 2015.
“The slower-than-expected overall growth reflects ongoing global uncertainty, but increasingly comes from domestic macroeconomic instability including poorly managed debt, inflation and deficits,” the bank said.
The Bretton Wood institution equally cut Nigeria’s growth forecast by 0.1 per cent.
It said, “Growth in Nigeria is projected to rise from 1.9 per cent in 2018 to 2.1 per cent in 2019 (0.1 percentage point lower than last October’s forecast).
“This modest expansion reflects stagnant oil production, as regulatory uncertainty limits investment in the oil sector, while non-oil economic activity is held back by high inflation, policy distortions, and infrastructure constraints.
“Growth is projected to rise slightly to 2.2 per cent in 2020 and reach 2.4 per cent in 2021, as improving financing conditions help boost investment.
“In Nigeria, although the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs remained above the neutral 50-point mark—which denotes expansion—they fell further in February, due to weaker rises in output and new sales orders across firms.
“Household consumption in Nigeria has remained subdued, while multiple exchange rates, foreign exchange restrictions, low private sector credit growth, and infrastructure constraints have continued to weigh on private investment.”
The Chief Economist for Africa at the bank, Albert Zeufack, said the region could boost annual growth by about nearly two percentage points if it harnessed Information Technology more effectively.
“This is a game-changer for Africa,” he added.
However, the spokesperson for the Central Bank of Nigeria, Mr Isaac Okorafor, said the CBN under the current governor, Mr Godwin Emefiele, had shown so much ingenuity in managing the economy.
“You know the crisis that we have faced in the past three years. The bank has shown ingenuity in managing the situation and ensuring that everything is stable
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Tinubu Presents N47.9trn 2025 Appropriation Bill to NASS
President Bola Tinubu, on Wednesday, presented the proposed 2025 federal budget to a joint session of the National Assembly.
The N47.9 trillion budget saw a whopping N3.5 trillion allocated to the education sector.
Other sectors that got higher allocations include defence and security – N4.91tn, infrastructure – N4.06tn and health – N2.4tn.
“It is with great pleasure that I lay before this distinguished joint session of the National Assembly, the 2025 Budget of the National Assembly of Nigeria titled, ‘The Restoration Budget’ security peace, building prosperity,” Tinubu said as he concluded his 30-minute presentation at 1:10pm.
This budget highlights the government’s focus on improving education, healthcare, and infrastructure, in line with its ‘Renewed Hope Agenda’ aimed at boosting the economy and addressing key national priorities.
The live broadcast of the budget presentation today revealed the government’s plans for the next fiscal year. With a strong emphasis on human capital development, the president highlighted the budget’s commitment to improving the nation’s economic foundation.
Education sector receives major funding
A significant portion of the 2025 budget is dedicated to education, with N3.5 trillion allocated to the sector. President Tinubu stated that part of this funding would be directed toward infrastructure development, including support for Universal Basic Education (UBEC) and the establishment of nine new higher educational institutions.
“We have made provision for N826.90 billion for infrastructural development in the education sector,” Tinubu said.
This allocation aims to improve educational facilities and support ongoing efforts to strengthen Nigeria’s educational system.
Focus on human capital development
During the presentation, the president emphasized the importance of investing in Nigeria’s human capital. “Human capital development, our people are our greatest resource. That is why we are breaking record investment in education, healthcare, our social services,” he remarked.
Tinubu also pointed to the N34 billion already disbursed through the Nigerian Education Loan Fund (NELFUND) to assist over 300,000 students.
The budget includes continued investments in healthcare and social services as part of the broader goal of enhancing the quality of life for Nigerians.
Strengthening the economy and national security
Tinubu highlighted that the 2025 budget is designed to build a robust economy while addressing critical sectors necessary for growth and security.
“This budget reflects the huge commitment to strengthening the foundation of a robust economy, while addressing the critical sectors essential for the growth and development we envision; and secure our nation,” he said.
The budget aims to tackle key challenges and foster long-term economic stability by prioritizing infrastructure and development in key sectors.
Healthcare and social services allocations
In addition to education, Tinubu focused on the allocation for healthcare and social services. The government plans to increase investments in healthcare infrastructure and services to ensure broader access to essential healthcare for Nigerians.
These investments are part of the administration’s strategy to improve overall living conditions and enhance public health across the country.
President Tinubu’s proposed 2025 budget is said to reflect the administration’s commitment to achieving its development objectives, with a focus on economic growth, human capital development, and infrastructure improvement.
As the National Assembly reviews the budget, the president reiterated his administration’s resolve to address the nation’s most pressing needs.
Source: Nairametrics
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Ghana’s President-elect Mahama Visits Tinubu in Abuja
Ghana’s President-Elect, Dr. John Dramani Mahama, a courtesy visit to President Bola Tinubu at his residence, Presidential Villa, State House on Monday.
Mahama won 56 percent of the votes in this month’s presidential election, compared to the ruling party candidate and Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia, who secured 41 percent.
The landslide comeback for former president Mahama ended eight years in power for the New Patriotic Party (NPP) under President Nana Akufo-Addo, whose last term was marked by Ghana’s worst economic turmoil in years, an IMF bailout and a debt default.
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I Stand by What I Said, Kemi Badenoch Replies VP Shettima
The leader of the United Kingdom’s Conservative Party, Kemi Badenoch, has lashed back at Vice President Kashim Shettima over the latter’s reaction to her comments about Nigeria.
Badenoch was born in the UK in 1980 to Nigerian Yoruba parents.
Badenoch, who attained age 16 in Nigeria before departing the country for the UK where she was elected Conservative Party’s leader, described Nigeria as a nation brimming with thieving politicians and insecurity.
However, Shettima, while speaking at the 10th Annual Migration Dialogue at the Presidential Villa in Abuja on Monday, December 9, 2024, accused Badenoch of “denigrating her country of origin” with her remarks.
The vice-president listed influential people whose families had migrated to other countries, commending former UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak as a “brilliant young man who never denigrated his nation of ancestry.”
Reacting on Wednesday, Badenoch lashed back at Shettima, saying she doesn’t do “PR for Nigeria”.
Her spokesperson, as the Tory leader, according to UK Express, said: “Kemi is not interested in doing Nigeria’s PR; she is the Leader of the Opposition in the UK.
“She tells the truth; she tells it like it is; she isn’t going to couch her words. She stands by what she said.”
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