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Nigeria’s Economy Sliding Downwards- World Bank

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The World Bank has said that the Nigerian economy has been slipping since 1995 and this continued till 2018.

The bank, in its latest report on the regional economy titled, ‘Africa’s Pulse’, released the taxonomy of growth performance in sub-Saharan Africa, which focused on the macroeconomic and financial features that led to growth resilience on the continent.

According to the bank, the taxonomy is used to help identify the factors that are correlated with success or failure in economic growth performance in sub-Saharan Africa, with emphasis on macroeconomic and financial variables.

The analysis, it said, involved a series of macroeconomic variables for 44 sub-Saharan African countries from 1995 to 2018.

The key elements that determined the positions of each of the 44 sub-Saharan economies in the taxonomy, the World Bank said, included the level of income per capita of the countries; structural transformation, as captured by sectoral value-added share and sectoral employment share; and capital flows.

Others are level and composition of public sector indebtedness, as captured by the general government gross debt and its currency composition, and the outstanding external public debt.

The last of the indicators has to do with governance vis-a-vis government effectiveness, regulatory quality, control of corruption, voice and accountability, political stability, and absence of violence and rule of law.

According to the World Bank, the taxonomy compares the average annual GDP growth rates during 1995–2008 and 2015–2018 against predetermined thresholds.

It also categorised growth performance into five groups: falling behind, slipping, stuck in the middle, improved, and established. The five groups were further reclassified into three groups: Top tercile, middle tercile and bottom tercile.

The Bretton Wood institution said, “If a country’s economic performance declined from 1995–2008 to 2015–18, the country is categorised in the bottom tercile, which includes ‘falling behind’ and ‘slipping.’ If a country’s growth rate remained invariant over time, between 3.5 and 5.4 per cent in both periods, it is categorised in the middle tercile (or stuck in the middle). If a country’s economic performance improved from 1995–2008 to 2015–18, with the growth of more than 5.4 per cent per year, the country is categorised in the top tercile, which includes the ‘improved’ and ‘established’ groups.”

Based on the above classification, the Nigerian economy was categorised alongside 18 other sub-Saharan African economies as slipping having recorded declined economic performance between 1995 and 2018.

The World Bank said, “The bottom tercile consists of 19 countries: Angola, Burundi, Botswana, the Republic of Congo, the Comoros , Gabon, Equatorial Guinea, Liberia, Lesotho, Mauritania, Malawi, Namibia, Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Eswatini, Chad, South Africa, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.  These countries did not show any progress in their economic performance from 1995–2008 to 2015–18. For instance, their median economic growth rate decelerated, from 5.4 per cent per year in 1995–2008 to 1.2 per cent per year in 2015–18.”

The bottom performing economies, according to the World Bank, produce almost 60 per cent of the region’s total GDP, emphasising that the three largest countries in the region—Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola—and many commodity exporters are in this group.

Burkina Faso, Côte d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Mali, Rwanda, Senegal, and Tanzania made the top tercile.

The middle tercile countries are Benin, the Central African Republic, Cameroon, the

Democratic Republic of Congo, Cabo Verde, The Gambia, Madagascar, Mozambique, Mauritius, Niger, Sudan, São Tomé and Príncipe, Togo, and Uganda.

The World Bank also cut its growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa this year to 2.8 per cent from an initial 3.3 per cent.

The commodity price slump of 2015 cut short a decade of rapid growth for the region, and the bank said growth would take longer to recover as a decline in industrial production and a trade dispute between China and the United States take their toll.

The bank’s 2019 forecast means economic growth will lag population growth for the fourth year in a row and it will remain stuck below three per cent, which it slipped to in 2015.

“The slower-than-expected overall growth reflects ongoing global uncertainty, but increasingly comes from domestic macroeconomic instability including poorly managed debt, inflation and deficits,” the bank said.

The Bretton Wood institution equally cut Nigeria’s growth forecast by 0.1 per cent.

It said, “Growth in Nigeria is projected to rise from 1.9 per cent in 2018 to 2.1 per cent in 2019 (0.1 percentage point lower than last October’s forecast).

“This modest expansion reflects stagnant oil production, as regulatory uncertainty limits investment in the oil sector, while non-oil economic activity is held back by high inflation, policy distortions, and infrastructure constraints.

“Growth is projected to rise slightly to 2.2 per cent in 2020 and reach 2.4 per cent in 2021, as improving financing conditions help boost investment.

“In Nigeria, although the manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs remained above the neutral 50-point mark—which denotes expansion—they fell further in February, due to weaker rises in output and new sales orders across firms.

“Household consumption in Nigeria has remained subdued, while multiple exchange rates, foreign exchange restrictions, low private sector credit growth, and infrastructure constraints have continued to weigh on private investment.”

The Chief Economist for Africa at the bank, Albert Zeufack, said the region could boost annual growth by about nearly two percentage points if it harnessed Information Technology more effectively.

“This is a game-changer for Africa,” he added.

However, the  spokesperson for the Central Bank of Nigeria, Mr Isaac Okorafor, said the CBN under the current governor, Mr Godwin Emefiele, had shown so much ingenuity in managing the economy.

“You know the crisis that we have faced in the past three years. The bank has shown ingenuity in managing the situation and ensuring that everything is stable

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Peter Obi Confirms Defection from ADC, Blames Toxicity, Lack of Solidarity

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Candidate of Labour Party in the last Presidential election, Mr. Peter Obi, has confirmed that he is on his way out of the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

In a personally signed statement released on Sunday, Obi said he arrived at the decision after deep reflection, describing the move as necessary despite “every constraint.”

“I woke up this morning after my church service with a deeply reflective heart… and felt compelled to share these thoughts,” he wrote, adding that many people do not understand the “silent pains” and private struggles faced by those trying to serve in Nigeria’s political space.

Obi painted a grim picture of the current political climate, describing it as increasingly hostile and discouraging.

“We now live in an environment that has become increasingly toxic, where the very system that should protect and create opportunities… often works against the people,” he said, pointing to intimidation, insecurity, and persistent scrutiny as defining features of the system.

The former Anambra State governor also expressed disappointment over what he described as a lack of solidarity, even among close associates.

“Some who publicly identify with you privately distance themselves or join in unfair criticism,” he noted, lamenting that humility is often misinterpreted as weakness, while compassion is seen as foolishness.

Obi, however, clarified that his decision was not driven by personal grievances against key leaders within the party. He specifically exonerated ADC National Chairman, David Mark, and former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, saying neither treated him unfairly.

“Let me state clearly: my decision to leave the ADC is not because our highly respected Chairman… treated me badly, nor because… Atiku Abubakar, or any other respected leaders did anything personally wrong to me,” he said.

Instead, Obi attributed his exit to what he described as a recurrence of the same challenges that plagued his time in the Labour Party, including internal divisions, legal battles, and external interference.

“The same Nigerian state and its agents that created unnecessary crises… now appear to be finding their way into the ADC, with endless court cases, internal battles, suspicion, and division,” he stated.

He further lamented that sincere contributions are often undervalued, with individuals becoming scapegoats for broader systemic failures.

“Even within spaces where one labours sincerely, one is sometimes treated like an outsider… as though honest contribution has become a favour being tolerated rather than appreciated,” Obi added.

Despite stepping away, the former governor said he continues to face criticism and attacks on his character, even as he seeks to pursue national development with sincerity.

Reflecting on Nigeria’s broader challenges, Obi questioned societal values that, according to him, often misinterpret integrity and prudent management of resources.

“Why is doing the right thing often misconstrued as wrongdoing in our country? Why is integrity not valued?” he asked.

Obi reiterated that his ambition is not driven by a quest for political office but by a desire to see a better Nigeria.

“I am not desperate to be President… I am desperate to see a society that can console a mother whose child has been kidnapped or killed,” he said, highlighting issues of insecurity, poverty, and displacement.

He concluded on a hopeful note, affirming his belief in Nigeria’s potential for transformation.

“Yet, despite everything, I remain resolute. I firmly believe that Nigeria can still become a country with competent leadership based on justice, compassion, and equal opportunity for all,” he said.

“A new Nigeria is possible.”

Source: Daily Trust

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Peter Obi Weeps for Nigerian Workers, Says Minimum Wage Can no Longer Guarantee Modest Living

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A frontline presidential aspirant on the platform of the opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC), Peter Obi, has regretted that the minimum wage can no longer guarantee a most modest standard of living in Nigeria.

In a post on his X handle on Friday to mark Workers’ Day, the former Governor of Anambra State said this has happened as inflation, rising food prices, transportation costs, and economic hardship continue to erode the value of honest work.

He said no nation can truly develop beyond the strength, productivity, and wellbeing of its workforce, stressing that the progress of any society rests on the quality of its human capital, the skill of its people, and the commitment of its workers.

‘When workers suffer, the nation suffers. When workers are empowered, the nation prospers,” he noted.

The presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 general elections said a productive nation must be built on justice, fairness, and respect for labour, adding that “it is the Nigeria we must work together to achieve.”

Obi said through democratic participation, the Nigerian workers have the power to shape governance and determine the future direction of the nation.

He, therefore, urged Nigerian workers to recognise the strength they hold collectively.

“But beyond their labour, workers also possess another powerful tool, their voice and their vote.

“They owe it to themselves, their children, and future generations to support and demand leadership built on competence, character, capacity, credibility, and compassion. By refusing to reward failure, corruption, ethnic division, and bad governance, they can help build a nation where hard work is respected and rewarded with dignity.

“With the support and participation of Nigerian workers, a new Nigeria is possible,” said Obi.

He saluted workers across the world, especially Nigerian workers whose daily sacrifices continue to sustain our families, communities, institutions, and national economy in the face of severe hardship and uncertainty.

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Attorney-General Asks Court to Deregister ADC, Accord, Three Other Parties

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The Attorney-General of the Federation has urged the Federal High Court in Abuja to compel the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to deregister five political parties, arguing that their continued existence violates constitutional provisions and undermines Nigeria’s electoral integrity.

In court filings, the Attorney General contended that unless the court intervenes, INEC would “continue to act in breach of its constitutional duty” by retaining parties that have failed to meet the minimum requirements prescribed by law.

The filing stressed that the right to associate as a political party is not absolute and must be exercised within constitutional limits. It further argued that it is in the interest of justice for the court to grant the reliefs sought by the plaintiffs.

The suit, marked FHC/ABJ/CS/2637/2026 and filed at the Abuja Judicial Division of the Federal High Court, lists the Incorporated Trustees of the National Forum of Former Legislators as the plaintiff.

The defendants include INEC as the first defendant and the Attorney General of the Federation as the second defendant, alongside five political parties: African Democratic Congress (ADC), Action Alliance (AA), Action Peoples Party (APP), Accord (A), and Zenith Labour Party (ZLP).

At the center of the issue in the case is whether INEC has a constitutional obligation to remove parties that fail to meet electoral performance thresholds set out in Section 225A of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) and reinforced by the Electoral Act 2022 and INEC’s own regulations.

The plaintiffs argue that the affected parties have persistently failed to satisfy the constitutional benchmarks required to retain their registration. These include winning at least 25 per cent of votes in a state during a presidential election or securing at least one elective seat at the national, state or local government level.

They contend that the parties performed poorly in the 2023 general elections and subsequent by-elections, failing to win seats across key tiers of government, yet continue to be recognised by INEC as eligible political platforms.

The plaintiffs maintain that this continued recognition is unlawful and undermines the integrity of Nigeria’s electoral system.

In the affidavit supporting the suit, the forum’s national coordinator, Igbokwe Raphael Nnanna, states that allowing parties that have not met constitutional requirements to remain on the register “is unconstitutional, illegal and a violation” of the governing legal framework.

The suit asks the court to declare that INEC is duty-bound to deregister such parties and to compel the commission to do so before preparations for the 2027 elections advance further.

Beyond declaratory reliefs, the plaintiffs are also seeking far-reaching orders that would bar the affected parties from participating in the next general elections or engaging in political activities such as campaigns, rallies and primaries. They further request injunctions restraining INEC from recognising or dealing with the parties in any official capacity unless and until they comply strictly with constitutional provisions.

Central to the plaintiffs’ argument is their interpretation of the law as imposing a mandatory duty on INEC. They argue that the use of the word “shall” in the Constitution leaves no room for discretion once a party fails to meet the stipulated thresholds.

In their written address, they rely on statutory provisions and judicial precedents to contend that electoral performance is an objective condition that must be enforced to maintain discipline, transparency, and accountability in the political system.

Tribune

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