Headline

Pendulum: The Presidential Election in the State of Osun

Published

7 years ago

September 29, 2018

Eric

By Dele Momodu

Fellow Nigerians, let’s not mince words today and go straight to the crux of the matter. What transpired in the State of Osun, as my dear Brother, the Governor, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, loves to refer to our State, was not a Gubernatorial, but prelude to Presidential election. The interest and resources galvanised for that election demonstrated that it was a civil war and not a civilised election. The election was seen and executed as a referendum on the tenure of President Muhammadu Buhari and its wobbly government. While the ruling party appeared determined, or maybe ‘desperate’ is the appropriate word, to win, the main opposition party looked jazzed and disinterested. But for the merciful interventions of former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and the President of the Nigerian Senate, Dr Abubakar Bukola Saraki, the PDP candidate, Senator Nurudeen Ademola Adeleke, could as well have been a virtual orphan. It was that bad.

What manner of opposition would sit at home, arms akimbo, after seeing how the President, Vice President, Governors, Ministers and party Chieftains all invaded, and flooded, Osun as if their lives depended on it? I fail to understand how PDP can parade over a dozen Presidential aspirants yet only few of them are showing irrevocable commitment to serious party matters while the rest are only pursuing personal agenda. Adeleke was just lucky to be blessed with a family that had the means to fund his campaign and in particular a megastar, David Adeleke (aka Davido), who unleashed his monstrous talent on the campaign.

The ways of politicians are certainly not the ways of ordinary mortals. I could not believe how they turned Osun into a theatre of war because of a few thousand votes. I thought that, by now, Nigeria had passed this disgraceful and embarrassing stage. I have no doubt that APC merely used the elections in Ekiti and Osun as dress rehearsals of what to expect in next year’s general elections. A former President had told me months ago that we should not expect President Buhari to lose the election and quit quietly like President Goodluck Jonathan did in 2015, but I disagreed most vehemently. Thank God, we did not take a bet because with what happened in Osun, in particular, I don’t see the APC apparatchik agreeing to vacate power without a truculent fight. Many people, Nigerians and non-Nigerians have come to the incontrovertible conclusion that what we currently have is an army of occupation and we should accept our fate with equanimity.

But no country can afford not to have a virile opposition. This is why it is sad and tragic that those who were in opposition only yesterday are perpetrating the same unfortunate acts we collectively rejected and dismissed not too long ago. It is also a shame that political parties have become over-proliferated in our dear beloved country. This has made it difficult for us to have a unified resolve to challenge what may ultimately turn into a Gestapo and most oppressive civilian regime. The PDP that should fight back stoutly to give a good fight is already gasping for breath because of multiple ambitions of individuals who may choose to turn coat at the drop of a hat. From the multitude of PDP aspirants and even the cacophony of permutations about who can challenge Buhari to a duel, it is becoming clear, to discerning minds, that there are only two, possibly three serious challengers and no more. Of these three, two currently stand tall. One is old and the other is young. It seems patently obvious, from the recent shenanigans that we have seen, that President Buhari and his people would do everything humanly possible to avoid confronting either of these two candidates at the polls next year.

Moving on, let me say with every emphasis I can muster, no candidate from the core North can compete against, and defeat, Buhari simply on the basis that they come from the core North. It is practically impossible. The jejune argument that PDP should pick a candidate who can divide the core Northern votes is either a joke carried too far or a deliberate decision to hand power back to the incumbent on a platter of gold. What the PDP needs urgently is a candidate who can explode its votes in the entire South and the North Central. I do not hereby advocate for any candidate. I make my thesis only on the basis of empirical analysis. Buhari lost elections three consecutive times because he couldn’t saunter across those zones. If you doubt my assertion, let’s examine the figures, in practical terms.

In 1999, PDP scored 4,226,330 in South South while ANPP/AD recorded 1,205,087. PDP 2,307,712 in South East and ANPP/AD 978,997. PDP 1,092,216 in South West and ANPP/AD 4,366,993. This was Chief Olu Falae versus General Olusegun Obasanjo. The Yoruba can mobilise humongous votes when they feel they have their own in the race. The sentiment was in favour of Falae. PDP 3,675,027 in North Central and ANPP/AD 1,461,840. PDP 3,552,354 in North East and ANPP/AD 1,412,426. PDP 3,887,536 in North West and ANPP/AD 1,684,934.

In 2003, PDP jumped to 6,953,679 in South South and ANPP 365,161. PDP 3,161,150 in South East and ANPP 253,079. PDP 5,031,288 in South West and ANPP 195,024. PDP 3,257,956 in North Central and ANPP 1,993,705. PDP 2,941,208 in North East and ANPP 3,694,367. PDP 2,764,846 in North West and ANPP 6,453,437. This was the year Buhari started contesting the Presidency. On this occasion he contested on the platform of ANPP.

In 2007, PDP had 6,118,608 in South South and ANPP 365,161. PDP 4,985,246 in South East and ANPP 253,079. PDP 2,836,417 in South West and ANPP 195,024. PDP 3,376,570 in North Central and ANPP 1,744575. PDP 1,832,651 in North East and ANPP 3,660919. PDP 3,466,924 in North West and ANPP 6,453,437. Buhari again contested as ANPP Presidential candidate.

In 2011, PDP recorded 6,118,608 in South South and CPC 49,978. PDP 4,985,246 in South East and CPC 20,335. PDP 2,786,417 in South West and CPC 321,609. PDP 3,123,126 in North Central and CPC 1,612,999. PDP 1,832,622 in North East and CPC 3,624,910. PDP 3,395,724 in North West and CPC 6,453,437. Buhari was on this occasion the flagbearer of the CPC.

In 2015, PDP secured 4,714,725 in South South and APC 418,590. PDP 2,464,906 in South East and APC 198,248. PDP 1,821,416 in South West and APC 2,433,193. PDP 1,715,818 in North Central and APC 2,411,013. PDP 796,580 in North East and APC 2,848,678. PDP 1,339,709 in North West and APC 7,115,199.

The import of these figures is that whosoever can checkmate Buhari from the Middlebelt downwards would always defeat Buhari. This does not necessarily mean such a candidate should come from these regions, but it would be ideal. A candidate with cross-over appeal from the North East and North West would also do well provided he does not believe that his place of origin means he should concentrate his effort in that region or adjunct region. PDP should forget the pipe dream of competing favourably against Buhari in the North East and North West. He has consistently won overwhelming in those two regions. However, if President Buhari can be restricted to those two zones while opposition locks down the other four zones of the country, then the prospects of the opposition PDP resoundingly beating the APC candidate becomes much brighter.

PDP or any intelligent party must apply Isaac Newton’s third Law of Motion: “actions and reactions are always equal and opposite.” Buhari would be 76, his opponent must be the opposite by being much younger. 70 percent of the electorate are under the age of 45. Opposition requires a candidate who can readily galvanise a multitude of first-time voters. Nigeria is long overdue for a candidate in the mould of Barack Obama, an energetic and cosmopolitan leader. Politics as a game of numbers must be approached meticulously. Buhari has stupendous State appurtenances and resources to deploy, his opponent must have access to similar armoury or have sufficient wherewithal to match the substantial resources of State and not be a scavenger in search of morale, audacity and finance.

I’m not sure about what the third force can produce. I have expressed this publicly and privately. There are those like my dear friend, former Governor Donald Duke, Frank Nweke Jnr. and others who feel a third force can fly next year. I sincerely doubt this. Indeed, I would like to dismiss this as mere wishful thinking. There may also be a fourth force, the Take Back Nigeria Movement being propelled by Omoyele Sowore who has worked extremely hard across Nigeria, but I believe he still has a lot of distance to cover. The reason is simple. He would have gone very far if he could muster the support of other younger candidates. Same with Fela Durotoye, Kingsley Moghalu and others. I truly wish there could be a consensus candidate, but alas!

Where do we go from here, realistically? I think the toughest opposition can still come from PDP if it can rescue itself from certain interests and manage to pick a kamikaze candidate who is not docile and who is ready to fight all the way with everything at his disposal. No meek or lily-livered gentleman can fight and conquer Buhari next year. The lesson to pick from Osun, while litigation processes are being cooked, is that the next Presidential election is not going to be the stuff of conventional warfare. A serious opposition must prepare for the use of ballistic and anti-ballistic missiles. This is the reality of what to expect.

TURKEY, A COUNTRY TO VISIT IN A LIFETIME

If you follow me on social media, you would have noticed my love for Turkey in recent times. It is not my fault and, trust me, I’m not being hyperbolic. Turkey is one of the most beautiful countries I have discovered since I started flying out of Nigeria in 1985. I have flown, landed and taken off on all continents, but Turkey holds a special space in my heart. Turkey reminds me of the United Arab Emirates in its majestic grandeur, but it is much more natural and less glittering.

My first trip to Istanbul was about seven years ago, but I did not stay long, and I could not explore the country much. Somehow, the importance of Turkey, as a hybrid country, in the comity of nations, did not register well in me. I promised to return, but was not sure when. That promise came to fruition early this year when I joined the woman of God, Reverend Mother Esther Abimbola Ajayi and her family on an unforgettable voyage to Turkey at the invitation of her adopted son, Aydin Adem Yildirim, otherwise known as Adesoji Ajayi. Aydin is from the popular district of Cappadocia and I must confess that this district is simply breath-taking.

It was in Cappadocia that I slept in a cave for the first time. The cave hotel was just surreal. The ancient city had so many artefacts from antiquity dated before the birth of Jesus Christ. We saw and visited some extra-ordinary museums and underground cities. Cappadocia is famous for hot-air balloon flights which attracts hundreds of people to the rural township daily. There are several airports within a few hours away.

We travelled to the Syria Refugee camps and witnessed how wonderful Turkey treats victims of a most debilitating war and other refugees fleeing from home and loved ones. We travelled to Istanbul, the gateway to Turkey and it was another exceptional experience. It was in Istanbul I spent my birthday, May 16, and was treated to a surprise cruise by the Ajayis. From Istanbul we flew to Bodrum, a city on the Peninsula. Bodrum is a playground for the rich and famous. We had so much fun. I left Bodrum with a promise to explore Turkey further.

I was back in Istanbul, Ankara and Cappadocia last week and it proved to be such a roller-coaster trip as I held meetings with several important personalities. Hosted by the Butik Travel Group and Aydin, my itinerary was well organised. The efficiency was top rate.

I was warmly received and treated like a king. I held meetings with prominent business leaders like M. Arif Parmaksiz, Member of Union of Chambers Turkey and President of Nevsehir Chamber of Commerce; I. Hakki Aydogan, General Secretary of NTSO, Cappadocia; I also met with leading political figures like Atilla Secen Mayor of Nevsehir, Mustafa Acikgoz Member of Parliament Nevsehir, Mustafa Rumeli and other top officials at Invest in Turkey, Fatma Ozsoy, Head of Advertising and Promotion, Ministry of Culture and Tourism.

Of course, my constituency, the journalists were not left out. Yilmaz Karaca, President of Federation of Turkish Journalists, Bayram Ekici, President of Association of Turkish Journalists in Nevsehir, Cappadocia, Chairman of the Association of Turkish journalists in Ankara and Metin Yildrim, Aydin’s uncle, and journalist based Nevsehir; and many others. My trip was covered in several Turkish newspapers and I felt like a celebrity of sorts in this foreign clime. There are plans for me to return soon to Turkey to further form and cement partnerships in the area of investment opportunities and tourism. I am convinced that our nation needs cordial relations with countries such as these in order to tap from their related experiences and expertise.

Words can hardly express my gratitude to my hosts and benefactors on both of my recent trips to Turkey. My sincere appreciation go in particular to the Ajayis, Aydin and his father, Ali Yildrim, who graciously and generously further opened my eyes to the magnificent country that Turkey is on this my latest trip.

Headline

Opposition Parties Reject 2026 Electoral Act, Demand Fresh Amendment

Published

14 hours ago

February 26, 2026

Eric

Opposition political parties have rejected the 2026 Electoral Act recently passed by the National Assembly, which President Bola Tinubu swiftly signed into law.

The parties called on the National Assembly to immediately begin a fresh amendment process to remove what they described as “all obnoxious provisions” in the law.

Their position was made known at a press briefing themed “Urgent Call to Save Nigeria’s Democracy,” held at the Transcorp Hilton Hotel in Abuja on Thursday.

In a communiqué read by the Chairman of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) Ahmed Ajuji, the opposition leaders stated:

“We demand that the National Assembly immediately commence a fresh amendment to the Electoral Act 2026, to remove all obnoxious provisions and ensure that the Act reflects only the will and aspiration of Nigerians for free, fair, transparent and credible electoral process in our country. Nothing short of this will be acceptable to Nigerians.”

Some of the opposition leaders present in at the event include former Senate President David Mark; former Governor of Osun State, Rauf Aregbesola; former Vice President Atiku Abubakar; former Governor of Rivers State, Chibuike Rotimi Amaechi; and former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi, all from the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

The National Chairman of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Ahmed Ajuji, and other prominent members of the NNPP, notably Buba Galadima, were also in attendance.

The coalition said the amended law, signed by Bola Tinubu, contains “anti-democratic” clauses, which they argue may weaken electoral transparency and public confidence in the voting system.

At the centre of the opposition’s concerns is the amendment to Section 60(3), which allows presiding officers to rely on manual transmission of election results where there is communication failure.

According to the coalition, the provision weakens the mandatory electronic transmission of results and could create loopholes for manipulation.

They argued that Nigeria’s electoral technology infrastructure is sufficient to support nationwide electronic transmission, citing previous assurances by officials of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

The parties also rejected the amendment to Section 84, which restricts political parties to direct primaries and consensus methods for candidate selection.

They described the change as an unconstitutional intrusion into the internal affairs of parties, insisting that indirect primaries remain a legitimate democratic option.

The opposition cited alleged irregularities in the recent Federal Capital Territory local government elections as evidence of what they described as a broader pattern of electoral compromise.

They characterised the polls as a “complete fraud” and said the outcome has deepened their lack of confidence in the ability of the electoral system to deliver credible elections in 2027.

The coalition also condemned reported attacks on leaders of the African Democratic Congress in Edo State, describing the incidents as a serious threat to democratic participation and political tolerance.

They warned that increasing violence against opposition figures could destabilise the political environment if not urgently addressed.

In their joint statement, the opposition parties pledged to pursue “every constitutional means” to challenge the Electoral Act 2026 and safeguard voters’ rights.

“We will not be intimidated,” the leaders said, urging civil society organisations and citizens to support efforts aimed at protecting Nigeria’s democratic system.

On February 18, 2026, President Bola Tinubu signed the Electoral Act (Amendment) 2026 into law following its passage by the National Assembly. The Act introduced several reforms, including statutory recognition of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System and revised election timelines.

However, opposition figures such as Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi have also called for further amendments, particularly over the manual transmission fallback clause, which critics say leaves room for manipulation.

The president said the law will strengthen democracy and prevent voter disenfranchisement.

Tinubu defended manual collation of results, questioned Nigeria’s readiness for full real-time electronic transmission, and warned against technical glitches and hacking.

The Electoral Act sparked intense debate in the National Assembly over how election results should be transmitted ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Civil society groups under the “Occupy NASS” campaign demanded real-time transmission to curb manipulation.

In the Senate, lawmakers clashed during consideration of Clause 60, which allows manual transmission of results if electronic transmission fails.

Senator Enyinnaya Abaribe (ADC, Abia South) demanded a formal vote to remove the proviso permitting manual transmission, arguing against weakening real-time electronic reporting.

The move led to a heated exchange on the floor, with Senate President Godswill Akpabio initially suggesting the demand had been withdrawn.

After procedural disputes and a brief confrontation among senators, a division was conducted. Fifteen opposition senators voted against retaining the manual transmission proviso, while 55 supported it, allowing the clause to stand.

Earlier proceedings had briefly stalled during clause-by-clause review, prompting consultations and a closed-door session.

In the House of Representatives, a similar disagreement came up over a motion to rescind an earlier decision that mandated compulsory real-time electronic transmission of results to IReV.

Although the “nays” were louder during a voice vote, Speaker Tajudeen Abbas ruled in favour of rescinding the decision, triggering protests and an executive session.

Headline

AFP: How Tinubu’s Govt Paid Boko Haram ‘Huge’ Ransom, Released Two Terrorists for Kidnapped Saint Mary’s Pupils

Published

3 days ago

February 24, 2026

Eric

The Nigerian government paid Boko Haram militants a “huge” ransom of millions of dollars to free up to 230 children and staff the jihadists abducted from a Catholic school in November, an AFP investigation revealed Monday.

Two Boko Haram commanders were also freed as part of the deal, which goes against the country’s own law banning payments to kidnappers. The money was delivered by helicopter to Boko Haram’s Gwoza stronghold in northeastern Borno state on the border with Cameroon, intelligence sources told AFP.

The decision to pay the militants is likely to irritate US President Donald Trump, who ordered air strikes on jihadists in northern Nigeria on Christmas Day and has been sent military trainers to help support Nigerian forces.

Nigerian government officials deny any ransom was paid to the armed gang that snatched close to 300 schoolchildren and staff from St. Mary’s boarding school in Papiri in central Niger state on November 21. At least 50 later managed to escape their captors.

Boko Haram has not been previously linked to the kidnapping, but sources told AFP one of its most feared commanders was behind the mass abduction: the notorious jihadist known as Sadiku.

He infamously held up a train from the capital in 2022 and netted hefty ransoms for the release of government officials and other well-off passengers.

Boko Haram, which has waged a bloody insurgency since 2009, is strongest in northeast Nigeria.

But a cell in central Niger state operates under Sadiku’s leadership. The St. Mary’s pupils and staff were freed after two weeks of negotiations led by Nuhu Ribadu, Nigeria’s National Security Adviser, with the government insisting no ransom was paid. Nigeria’s State Security Service flatly denied paying any money, saying “government agents don’t pay ransoms”.

However, four intelligence sources familiar with the talks told AFP the government paid a “huge” ransom to get the pupils back. One source put it at 40 million naira per head – around $7 million in total.

Another put the figure lower at two billion naira overall. The money was delivered by chopper to Ali Ngulde, a Boko Haram commander in the northeast, three sources told AFP.

Due to the lack of communications cover in the remote area, Ngulde had to cross into Cameroon to confirm delivery of the ransom before the first group of 100 children were released.

Nigeria has long been plagued by mass abductions, with criminals and jihadist groups sometimes working together to extort millions from hostages’ families, and authorities seemingly powerless to stop them.

Source: Africanews

Headline

Unlawful Invasion: El-Rufai Drags ICPC, IGP, Others to Court, Demands N1bn Damages

Published

4 days ago

February 23, 2026

Eric

Former Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, has slammed a ₦1 billion fundamental rights enforcement suit against the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) for what he claimed was an unlawful invasion of his Abuja residence.

El-Rufai, in a suit filed at the Federal High Court in Abuja, also listed the Chief Magistrate, Magistrate’s Court of the FCT, Abuja Magisterial District; Inspector-General of Police, and the Attorney-General of the Federation (AGF) as 2nd to 4th respondents respectively.

According to the suit filed through his lawyers, led by Oluwole Iyamu, El-Rufai prayed the court to declare that the search warrant issued on February 4 by the Chief Magistrate, Magistrate’s Court of the FCT (2nd respondent), authorising the search and seizure at his residence as invalid, null and void.

Security operatives had stormed and searched the former Governor’s residence in the ongoing investigations against him.

However, he argued in the case marked: FHC/ABJ/CS/345/2026, that the search was in violation of Section 37 of the Constitution, and urged the court to declare that the search warrant was “null and void for lack of particularity, material drafting errors, ambiguity in execution parameters, overbreadth, and absence of probable cause thereby constituting an unlawful and unreasonable search.”

In the suit dated and filed February 20 by Iyamu, ex-governor, who is currently under detention, sought seven reliefs.

He prayed the court to declare that the invasion and search of his residence at House 12, Mambilla Street, Aso Drive, Abuja, on Feb. 19 at about 2pm and executed by agents of ICPC and I-G, “under the aforesaid invalid warrant, amounts to a gross violation of the applicant’s fundamental rights to dignity of the human person, personal liberty, fair hearing, and privacy under Sections 34, 35, 36, and 37 of the Constitution.”

He urged the court to declare that “any evidence obtained pursuant to the aforesaid invalid warrant and unlawful search is inadmissible in any proceedings against the applicant, as it was procured in breach of constitutional safeguards.”

El-Rufai, therefore, sought an order of injunction restraining the respondents and their agents from further relying on, using, or tendering any evidence or items seized during the unlawful search in any investigation, prosecution, or proceedings involving him.

“An order directing the Ist and 3rd respondents (ICPC and I-G) to forthwith return all items seized from the applicant’s premises during the unlawful search, together with a detailed inventory thereof.

“An order awarding the sum of N1,000,000,000.00 (One Billion Naira) as general, exemplary, and aggravated damages against the respondents jointly and severally for the violations of the applicant’s fundamental rights, including trespass, unlawful seizure, and the resultant psychological trauma, humiliation, distress, infringement of privacy, and reputational harm.”

The breakdown of the ₦1 billion in damages includes “a N300 million as compensatory damages for psychological trauma, emotional distress, and loss of personal security;

“A ₦400 million as exemplary damages to deter future misconduct by law enforcement agencies and vindicate the applicant’s rights.

“A ₦300 million as aggravated damages for the malicious, high-handed and oppressive nature of the respondents’ actions, including the use of a patently defective warrant procured through misleading representations.”

He equally sought ₦100 million as the cost of filing the suit, including legal fees and associated expenses.

Iyamu argued that the search warrant was fundamentally defective, lacking specificity in the description of items to be seized, containing material typographical errors, ambiguous execution terms, overbroad directives, and no verifiable probable cause.

He added that the warrant violated Sections 143-148 of the Administration of Criminal Justice Act (ACJA), 2015; Section 36 of the Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences (ICPC) Act, 2000, and constitutional protections against arbitrary intrusions and several other constitutional provisions.

“Section 146 stipulates that the warrant must be in the prescribed form, free from defects that could mislead, but the document is riddled with errors in the address, date, and district designation;

“Section 147 allows direction to specified persons, but the warrant’s indiscriminate addressing to “all officers is overbroad and unaccountable.

“Section 148 permits execution at reasonable times, but the contradictory language creates ambiguity, undermining procedural clarity,” he submitted.

Iyamu stated that the execution of the invalid warrant on Feb. 19 resulted in an unlawful invasion of his client’s premises, constituting violations of the rights to dignity (Section 34), personal liberty (Section 35), fair hearing (Section 36), and privacy (Section 37) of the Constitution.

He further argued that the search was conducted without legal justification and in a manner that inflicted humiliation and distress.

“Evidence obtained without a valid warrant is unlawful and inadmissible, as established in judicial precedents such as C.O.P. v. Omoh (1969) NCLR 137, where the court ruled that evidence procured through improper means contravenes fundamental rights and must be excluded,” he said.

In the affidavit in support of the application, Mohammed Shaba, a Principal Secretary to the former governor, averred that on Feb. 19 at about 2p.m., officers from the ICPC and Nigeria Police Force invaded the residence under a purported search warrant issued on or about Feb. 4.

According to him, the said warrant is invalid due to its lack of specificity, errors, and other defects as outlined in the grounds of this application.

He said the “search warrant did not specify the properties or items being searched for.”

Shaba stated that the officers failed to submit themselves for search as provided by the law before proceeding with the search.

“That the Magistrate did not specify the magisterial district wherein he sits.

“That during the invasion, the officers searched the applicant’s premises without lawful authority, seized personal items including documents and electronic devices, and caused the applicant undue humiliation, psychological trauma, and distress.

“Now shown to me and marked as ‘EXHIBIT B’ Is the list of the items carted away.

“That no items seized have been returned, and the respondents continue to rely on the unlawful evidence.

“That the applicant suffered violations of his constitutional rights as a result, and this application is brought in good faith to enforce same,” Shaba said.

Source: Naijanews.com