By Kayode Emola
I remember vividly when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, many commentators at the time said, this was going to be a quick and decisive war. Even Russia thought it was going to end within 10 days, as they had hoped the Russian-speaking Ukrainians would roll out the red carpet.
However, this wasn’t the case, as it turned out that the Russians were not welcome. Ukrainians have tasted what they did not enjoy in the former Soviet Union before it collapsed in 1991, and they’re not going back. Russia felt humiliated, many of its tanks were destroyed, and its hastily put-together military had to retreat.
In the end, what was supposed to be a special military operation turned out to be a full-blown war, and not even Putin could deny the pain and frustration Russia is going through. Above all, it is the ordinary man in the streets of Ukraine who is bearing the brunt of the ongoing fighting as they continue to suffer from Russia’s drone attacks daily.
What will bring peace to Ukraine? Is it a united coalition against Russia and its economy by the rest of the world? Or is it for Ukraine to make peace at all costs for the sake of its population? So far, the Ukrainians seem to be defiant and holding their ground, insisting that Russia is the aggressor and must be pushed back by any means necessary.
Russia, on the other hand, doesn’t agree with that stance and believes the Russian-speaking Ukrainians need to be protected from the Ukrainian regime. The truth of the matter is, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russians have never forgiven the Ukrainians, as they saw Ukraine as the cause of the collapse.
If Russia saw Ukraine as the cause of the collapse, why would it want Ukraine back? Is it not afraid that Ukraine may further cause the Russian Federation more damage if it is brought back as a territory of Russia? All these are better left for Putin and his people to decide.
This week, everyone had hoped that the meeting between Putin and Trump would bring about an immediate ceasefire. The international press and foreign governments so hyped the word ceasefire that Putin came from behind with another plan.
Putin very well knows that a ceasefire will not favour Russia, especially as they are making significant gains on the ground. In another vein, he didn’t want more crippling sanctions to hurt his war machine, especially if India and China were to stop buying Russian oil because of the Trump-imposed tariffs.
He quickly invited himself to the US to help Donald Trump save face, knowing that he had an alternative plan to peace. Putin doesn’t want peace; he wants to punish the West for the breakup of the Soviet Union, and what better way than to sow the seed of discord among them.
He had his master game plan: promise Donald Trump a peace plan that may or may not happen and let him have something to worry about for now. Continue with the Russian military progress on the ground, after all, he already controls two-thirds of the Donbass, who knows, by the time the peace plan is in force, he may have gotten the whole of Donbass, and that will be job done.
Then he can present to the Russian people that his special military operation is over, portraying himself as the saviour of the Russian people anywhere in the world. Whatever the case may be, it is not good news for Ukraine. Without the support of its European partners and the US, Ukraine on its own cannot withstand the firepower of Russia.
Therefore, Ukraine has no other option than to make peace with Russia for now, although what Ukraine wants is a long-lasting peace. Not a peace for the sake of pausing the fighting and then resuming hostilities, some few years down the line, when a new man enters the white house.
For Ukraine, it does not have many options; it can only hope that Russia will genuinely pursue peace. How can you get peace from an angry husband who never wanted a divorce in the first place? Will he ever allow you to remarry? Ukraine wants a clean break from Russia; it wants to be aligned with the rest of Western Europe and the US. For Russia, that is not an option; you will only be mine or no one else.
That is the real crux of the matter when Putin says the root cause of the underlying problem must be addressed first before we even talk of peace. Putin does know that peace is not just what you achieve in just one meeting, thereby playing Trump in a highly masterful game of diplomacy.
Trump must have been very naïve when he thought Putin was going to agree to an immediate ceasefire on his first visit to the US. Putin only wanted to save Trump from an international embarrassment while kicking down the ceasefire can.
In the end, Ukraine will need to decide what it wants to get and how it wants to get there. There are a few options that Ukraine can take: launch a counter-offensive against the Russian forces on its occupied territory, thereby pushing the Russians back. Or agree to an armistice that freezes the conflict and waits for a time in the future when it can reclaim its territory.
Pursue closer cooperation with Europe without ever publicly declaring that it wants membership of the European Union or NATO. After all, countries like Norway, Switzerland, etc, are not members of the EU but benefit immensely from free trade with the EU.
Ukraine can position itself to benefit both from Russia and the EU without causing a stir. In that way, it will be a big win for Ukraine without needing to go to war. If in the future Ukraine is strong enough to challenge the Russian Federation on its own without needing the European and American partners, then it can fight its war on its own terms.
However, as Ukraine needs the support of external governments to fight its war, it is better to make peace and save the lives of its military and civilian population. It doesn’t mean that the Ukrainians are stupid; it just gives them a better chance to fight another day.
Overall, we should be grateful that the first and second world wars taught the world a valuable lesson that wars don’t end conflict; negotiation does. As all parties involved pursue lasting peace, we hope and pray that this kind of thing does not revisit mankind.
Meanwhile, it would have been good if the White House were dedicating so many efforts to other conflicts around the world as it is doing in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The Gaza Strip is nothing to write home about, Congo is in constant battle, and Sudan is in a world of its own.
Hopefully, we Yoruba will learn one or two things from the Russian-Ukraine war and be able to navigate our own challenges in Nigeria. The time has come for us to take a stand for our own liberation, and we cannot depend on external powers to come to our rescue when it matters most. We must be ready to go it alone if that is what it requires.