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Naira May Fall to N900/$ from Demand Pressure – Report

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Andersen, an independent tax and business advisory firm has said that the parallel rate of the naira may fall to N900 in 2023 from demand pressure if mitigating measures are not taken.

The firm that has a worldwide presence through the member firms and collaborating firms of Andersen Global disclosed this in its report titled ‘Nigeria’s 2023 economic outlook’, which was presented by its partners in Lagos.

The report read in part, “In 2022, the value of the naira was relatively more stable in the official market than in the parallel market thereby widening the premium between the two exchange rate windows. This was due to the heightened demand pressure spurred by FX illiquidity.

“FX excess demand pressure is expected to continue in 2023 fuelled by varying factors such as elevated global interest rates attracting portfolio investments away from Nigeria; a structurally import-dependent economy; currency speculations if the gap between official and parallel market rates are not closed; etc, which will make the naira to remain pressured in the foreign exchange windows.

“Based on this, should the CBN continue to maintain the gap, the official rate is likely to be devalued to about N500/$, while the parallel market rate depreciates to about N900/$ by the end of 2023 unless mitigating measures are taken.”

On the 2023 budget, it said the total revenue was estimated to be N10.49tn and total expenditure was approximately N21.83tn, thereby indicating a budget deficit of N11.34tn, a 39 per cent increase from the last budget’s deficit of N8.17tn.

The deficit was expected to be significantly financed through domestic borrowings, it added.

According to the report, “The Director-General of the Debt Management Office stated that improvement in revenue generation serves as a solution to the increasing debt profile. Despite the increase in government income and expenditure altogether, the education and health sectors are still underfunded.

“The rising inflation rate and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on food and energy prices are factors likely to affect Nigeria’s 2023 budget performance.”

It noted that the financial services sector grew by 12.7 per cent in Q3, 2022.

The sector had also been driven by several factors such as technology adoption, increasing population, increase in credit to the private sector, the rise of the fintech industry, competitive landscape and government reforms among others.

“Recent trends in the sector include a focus on digitisation and adoption of new and emerging technologies, currency redesign and cash withdrawal limits, bank and fintech partnerships, insurtech, etc,” the statement said.

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Business

Budgit: Akwa Ibom Most Creditworthy State in Nigeria

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Akwa Ibom State has been identified as Nigeria’s most creditworthy state. This is attributed to its strong fiscal position, allowing it to sustain its debt obligations and borrow further.

The verdict was delivered by Budgit, a Nigerian civic organisation that examines state and national budgets and applies technology for citizen engagement with a view at institutional improvement, in its State of the States Report 2024 Edition themed “Moving Healthcare Delivery from suboptimal to optimal”

According to Budgit, Akwa Ibom came tops in the States Performance on Index C, scoring 0.227. The report declared that states who score high are determined “by their debt-to-revenue ratio, and personnel cost to revenue ratio”.

“In contrast, states that rank lower on Index C need to check their appetite for the acquisition of more debt as they appear to be either above or very close to solvency for debt-to-revenue ratio, foreign debt to total debt, debt service-to-revenue ratio, and personnel cost to revenue ratio.

“The lower ranking states may need to rapidly adopt Public-Private Partnership (PPP) models in delivering public goods due to their relatively poorer credit worthiness.

“The state (Akwa Ibom) owing to its relatively low foreign debt to total debt ratio, ranked the most debt-sustainable state among the 36 states”

For Governor Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom State who has not borrowed any funds either domestic or foreign since assumption of office, this report further validates the government’s position on prudent management of state resources for the greater good of the people.

In the same report, Budgit indicated that regarding health expenditure, the state allocated funds for purchasing health and medical equipment, construction and provision of hospitals and health centres, purchasing drugs, renovating and building new primary healthcare centres and boosting health training.

It then stated “Overall, Akwa Ibom is working towards enhancing its healthcare system having spent about N1billion on primary healthcare and medical equipment. Still, there may be opportunities to increase investment in the sector to fully meet the population’s healthcare needs”

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Economy

FG Spends $600m on Fuel Importation Monthly, Says Finance Minister Wale Edun

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The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun has disclosed that the country currently spends $600m on fuel importation monthly.

The minister revealed this during an interview on AIT’s Moneyline programme on Wednesday.

He said that the high import bill is due to neighbouring countries, up to Central Africa, benefiting from the country’s fuel imports.

Edun explained that the situation was the reason President Bola Tinubu removed fuel subsidy, as the country does not know the exact amount of fuel consumed internally.

According to a report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the country’s petrol import was reduced to an average of one billion litres monthly after President Bola Tinubu removed the fuel subsidy on May 29 last year.

He said, “The fuel subsidy was removed May 29, 2023, by Mr President, and at that time, the poorest of 40 per cent was only getting four per cent of the value, and basically, they were not benefitting at all. So it was going to be just a few.

“Another point that I think is important is that nobody knows the consumption in Nigeria of petroleum. We know we spend $600m to import fuel every month but the issue here is that all the neighbouring countries are benefitting.

“So we are buying not for just for Nigeria, we are buying for countries to the east, almost as far as Central Africa. We are buying. We are buying for countries to the North and we are buying for countries to the West. And so we have to ask ourselves as Nigerians, how long do we want to do that for and that is the key issue regarding the issue of petroleum pricing.”

The minister also clarified that the N570bn fund release to state governments was implemented last year December.

He said, “This actually refers to a reimbursement that they received from December last year onwards and it was a reimbursement I think under the COVID financing protocol but the point is that the states have received more money. They have received more money. Mr President has charged to ensure food production in the states.”

According to him, the recent decision to raise the maximum borrowing percentage in the Ways and Means from five to 10 per cent does not imply that the Federal Government tends to rely on the Central Bank of Nigeria financing.

He also said the welfare of Nigerians remained a key priority for the current administration, particularly ensuring food availability and affordability.

Edun said, “There is a concerted effort to ensure that we have homegrown food available. In the short term, apart from what is being distributed from reserves, there is a window that has been opened for importation because the commitment of Mr President is to drive down those prices now and make food available now.”

He assured all that the measure would not undermine local farmers, as importation would only be permitted after exhausting local supplies.

He said, “So, one of the conditions for this importation will be that everything available locally in the markets or with the millers and so forth has been taken up. We will have auditors that will check that.”

He said these interventions seek to reduce inflation, stabilise exchange rates, and lower interest rates, thereby creating a conducive environment for investment and job creation.

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Economy

FG Dismisses Dangote Petroleum As Inferior, Says Refinery Not Yet Licenced, Completed

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By Eric Elezuo

A Federal Government of Nigeria petroleum regulatory agency, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, (NMDPRA), has dismissed petroleum products from the Dangote Refinery as inferior, in the guise of those f4om Watersmith and Aradel, making a case for superiority of imported ones.

The revelation was made by the Chief Executive Officer of NMDPRA, Mr. Farouk Ahmed, while responding to questions from a section of the press, a video of which is trending online, adding that the refinery is only 45% completed, and yet to be licenced for operation by the Nigerian government.

Earlier, the Vice President of Dangote Industries Limited, Devakumar Edwin, had alleged that most fuel products imported into Nigeria are substandard, blaming International Oil Companies (IOCs) of frustrating Dangote’s quest for production.

In the short video, which lasted a little over a minute, Mr. Ahmed debunked theories attached to the functionality of the Dangote Refinery, saying it does not have the capacity to ‘feed’ the nation of its petroleum needs, as it stands. He however, refuted arguments that some elements within the oil and gas sector were trying to scuttle the Dangote Refinery.

A transcript of the NMDPRA’s boss short response is as follows:

“It about concerns of supply of petroleum products acros the nationwide, and the claim that we are trying to scuttle Dangote. That is not so. Dangote Refinery is still in the pre-commissioning stage. It has not been licenced yet. We haven’t licenced them yet. I think they are about 45 per cent completed, or completion rather.

“We cannot rely on one refinery to feed the nation, because Dangote is requesting that we suspend or stop imports, especially of AGO and DPK, and direct all marketers to his refinery. That is not good for the nation in terms of energy security, and it is not good for the market because of the monopoly.

“Dangote Refinery, as well as some modular refineries like Watersmith Refinery and Aradel Refinery, are producing between 650 and 1,200 PPM. Therefore, in terms of quality, their products are inferior to imported ones,” he stated.

It will be recalled that only last Sunday, the President, Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, while hosting senior journalists from across various media concerns, revealed that the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) owns only 7.2% of stakes in the refinery, and not 20 percent as widely circulated. He also revealed that the refinery is set to begin fuel supply in August 2024.

Many stakeholders and respondents have alleged that there’s no love lost between the government of the day and the Dangote Group, and that explains the hiccup situation surrounding the takeoff the $19 billion refinery.

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