Economy

Naira May Fall to N900/$ from Demand Pressure – Report

Published

3 years ago

February 23, 2023

Eric

Andersen, an independent tax and business advisory firm has said that the parallel rate of the naira may fall to N900 in 2023 from demand pressure if mitigating measures are not taken.

The firm that has a worldwide presence through the member firms and collaborating firms of Andersen Global disclosed this in its report titled ‘Nigeria’s 2023 economic outlook’, which was presented by its partners in Lagos.

The report read in part, “In 2022, the value of the naira was relatively more stable in the official market than in the parallel market thereby widening the premium between the two exchange rate windows. This was due to the heightened demand pressure spurred by FX illiquidity.

“FX excess demand pressure is expected to continue in 2023 fuelled by varying factors such as elevated global interest rates attracting portfolio investments away from Nigeria; a structurally import-dependent economy; currency speculations if the gap between official and parallel market rates are not closed; etc, which will make the naira to remain pressured in the foreign exchange windows.

“Based on this, should the CBN continue to maintain the gap, the official rate is likely to be devalued to about N500/$, while the parallel market rate depreciates to about N900/$ by the end of 2023 unless mitigating measures are taken.”

On the 2023 budget, it said the total revenue was estimated to be N10.49tn and total expenditure was approximately N21.83tn, thereby indicating a budget deficit of N11.34tn, a 39 per cent increase from the last budget’s deficit of N8.17tn.

The deficit was expected to be significantly financed through domestic borrowings, it added.

According to the report, “The Director-General of the Debt Management Office stated that improvement in revenue generation serves as a solution to the increasing debt profile. Despite the increase in government income and expenditure altogether, the education and health sectors are still underfunded.

“The rising inflation rate and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on food and energy prices are factors likely to affect Nigeria’s 2023 budget performance.”

It noted that the financial services sector grew by 12.7 per cent in Q3, 2022.

The sector had also been driven by several factors such as technology adoption, increasing population, increase in credit to the private sector, the rise of the fintech industry, competitive landscape and government reforms among others.

“Recent trends in the sector include a focus on digitisation and adoption of new and emerging technologies, currency redesign and cash withdrawal limits, bank and fintech partnerships, insurtech, etc,” the statement said.

The Punch

Economy

World Bank Okays $1.25bn Loan for Nigeria, Unveils 6-Year Growth Strategy

Published

3 weeks ago

July 1, 2026

Eric

The World Bank has approved a $1.25 billion Development Policy Financing (DPF) loan for Nigeria as part of a new six-year partnership framework to accelerate private sector-led growth, create jobs, and support key economic reforms.

The approval, announced on Wednesday, falls under the Nigeria Actions for Investment and Jobs Acceleration (NAIJA) programme and is part of the World Bank’s Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Nigeria, covering 2026 to 2032.

According to the bank, the financing will support reforms to improve competitiveness, deepen capital markets, modernise regulations for the digital economy, strengthen power sector reforms, expand agricultural productivity and enhance domestic revenue mobilisation. The programme also seeks to reduce trade barriers in line with Nigeria’s commitments under ECOWAS and the African Continental Free Trade Area.

The approval follows public debate over Nigeria’s rising debt profile, with some Nigerians questioning the country’s continued reliance on external borrowing and calling for greater transparency in the use of previous World Bank loans.

Beyond the financing, the World Bank said the new partnership framework aims to expand electricity access to 32 million Nigerians, provide broadband connectivity to 58 million people, improve health and nutrition services for 40 million citizens and support 9.5 million farmers through higher agricultural productivity.

World Bank Country Director for Nigeria, Mathew Verghis, said recent macroeconomic reforms had helped stabilise the economy but stressed that sustained improvements in living standards would depend on addressing structural constraints to private investment and job creation.

The World Bank Group added that its private sector arms, the International Finance Corporation (IFC) and the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA), will support the strategy by mobilising private capital, expanding infrastructure investment and providing guarantees to reduce investment risks.

The new framework reflects the World Bank’s continued focus on supporting Nigeria’s economic reforms while encouraging greater private sector participation to drive long-term growth and reduce poverty.

Economy

Dangote Refinery Files Lawsuit Against FG, NNPC, Marketers over Petrol Import Licences

Published

2 months ago

May 18, 2026

Eric

Dangote Petroleum Refinery has filed a fresh lawsuit against the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) and several fuel marketers, seeking to overturn fuel import licences issued by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

According to court documents filed at the Federal High Court in Lagos and cited by Reuters, the refinery is asking the court to nullify import permits recently granted or renewed by the regulator, arguing that the approvals violate an earlier directive ordering all parties to maintain the status quo pending the determination of the case.

The legal action comes at a time when Nigeria is recording a sharp decline in petrol imports due to rising domestic refining capacity, largely driven by output from the Dangote Refinery.

In its filing, Dangote Refinery argued that Nigerian law permits fuel importation only when local production is unable to meet national demand. The company maintained that continued issuance of import licences undermines its operations as it ramps up production from its multi-billion-dollar refinery located on the outskirts of Lagos.

Fuel marketers, however, have consistently defended importation, insisting that imports remain necessary to guarantee a stable supply and prevent shortages across the country.

This is not the first dispute between Dangote Refinery and fuel importers. In 2025, the company filed a similar suit against NNPC Ltd and several marketers, including AYM Shafa Ltd, A.A. Rano Ltd, T. Time Petroleum Ltd, 2015 Petroleum Ltd and Matrix Petroleum Services Ltd, while also seeking ₦100 billion in damages. The suit was later withdrawn without explanation.

Recent industry data showed petrol imports dropped to 965.52 million litres in Q1 2026 from 2.43 billion litres in the same period of 2025. Meanwhile, supply from local refineries rose to 3.18 billion litres, accounting for about 76.7 percent of Nigeria’s petrol supply during the quarter.

Economy

World Bank Flags ‘Hidden Spending System’ Diverting N34.53trn of Nigeria’s Revenue

Published

3 months ago

April 19, 2026

Eric

The World Bank has raised concerns over Nigeria’s fiscal framework, revealing that more than N34.53 trillion was diverted from federation revenue over the past three years through pre-distribution deductions.

In its latest Nigeria Development Update obtained from its website, the global lender disclosed that although total federation revenue rose sharply to about N84 trillion between 2023 and 2025, about 41 per cent of the earnings did not reach the Federation Account for distribution to the federal, state and local governments.

According to the report, gross revenue increased from N17.08 trillion in 2023 to an estimated N37.44 trillion in 2025. However, deductions classified as “first-line charges” also rose significantly, from N6.22 trillion to nearly N15 trillion within the same period, reducing the pool of funds available for distribution.

The World Bank noted that the development has created a paradox in which rising revenues have not translated into improved public spending capacity, as a substantial portion is automatically retained by certain agencies before allocation.

It explained that reforms such as the removal of petrol subsidy and foreign exchange adjustments boosted nominal revenues, but much of the gains were offset by the structure of deductions tied to cost of collection and statutory transfers.

Agencies such as the Nigeria Customs Service, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, and the Federal Inland Revenue Service account for a significant portion of these deductions. The report stated that their funding is based on fixed percentages of gross revenue, leading to higher allocations as revenues increase.

Describing the model as “pro-cyclical”, the Bretton Woods institution said it operates outside the conventional budgetary framework and weakens legislative oversight. In some cases, allocations to individual agencies exceed the revenues of several states and even the budgets of key federal ministries.

The report also highlighted the impact on public finances, noting a decline in capital expenditure from N5.5 trillion in 2024 to N4.5 trillion in 2025, with only about 25 per cent of the approved capital budget implemented. Meanwhile, the federal fiscal deficit remained elevated at N16.9 trillion, driven by debt servicing and recurrent expenditure.

The World Bank warned that the current arrangement undermines fiscal transparency and accountability, as significant portions of public revenue are spent outside the standard appropriation process.

Source: tribuneonline