Connect with us

Economy

Naira May Fall to N900/$ from Demand Pressure – Report

Published

on

Andersen, an independent tax and business advisory firm has said that the parallel rate of the naira may fall to N900 in 2023 from demand pressure if mitigating measures are not taken.

The firm that has a worldwide presence through the member firms and collaborating firms of Andersen Global disclosed this in its report titled ‘Nigeria’s 2023 economic outlook’, which was presented by its partners in Lagos.

The report read in part, “In 2022, the value of the naira was relatively more stable in the official market than in the parallel market thereby widening the premium between the two exchange rate windows. This was due to the heightened demand pressure spurred by FX illiquidity.

“FX excess demand pressure is expected to continue in 2023 fuelled by varying factors such as elevated global interest rates attracting portfolio investments away from Nigeria; a structurally import-dependent economy; currency speculations if the gap between official and parallel market rates are not closed; etc, which will make the naira to remain pressured in the foreign exchange windows.

“Based on this, should the CBN continue to maintain the gap, the official rate is likely to be devalued to about N500/$, while the parallel market rate depreciates to about N900/$ by the end of 2023 unless mitigating measures are taken.”

On the 2023 budget, it said the total revenue was estimated to be N10.49tn and total expenditure was approximately N21.83tn, thereby indicating a budget deficit of N11.34tn, a 39 per cent increase from the last budget’s deficit of N8.17tn.

The deficit was expected to be significantly financed through domestic borrowings, it added.

According to the report, “The Director-General of the Debt Management Office stated that improvement in revenue generation serves as a solution to the increasing debt profile. Despite the increase in government income and expenditure altogether, the education and health sectors are still underfunded.

“The rising inflation rate and the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on food and energy prices are factors likely to affect Nigeria’s 2023 budget performance.”

It noted that the financial services sector grew by 12.7 per cent in Q3, 2022.

The sector had also been driven by several factors such as technology adoption, increasing population, increase in credit to the private sector, the rise of the fintech industry, competitive landscape and government reforms among others.

“Recent trends in the sector include a focus on digitisation and adoption of new and emerging technologies, currency redesign and cash withdrawal limits, bank and fintech partnerships, insurtech, etc,” the statement said.

The Punch

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Economy

Tinubu’s Govt Secures Fresh $65m Loan from World Bank

Published

on

By

The World Bank has approved an additional $65 million credit for Nigeria under the Sustainable Procurement, Environmental, and Social Standards Enhancement (SPESSE) project, raising the total funding to $145 million.

According to information obtained from the website of the World Bank, the approval was granted on June 24, 2025—six days earlier than the previously scheduled date of June 30.

The project status has since been updated to “active,” and the World Bank confirmed it has reached the “Bank Approved” stage.

The SPESSE project was initially launched in 2021, backed by an $80 million loan approved in February 2020. It aims to build lasting institutional capacity for managing procurement, environmental, and social standards across Nigeria’s public and private sectors.

New funds to expand e-Procurement and training

The new financing will support the national roll-out of the Electronic Government Procurement (e-GP) platform.

This digital system is expected to streamline procurement processes, reduce delays, and enhance transparency in public spending.

According to the World Bank, in a document released earlier on the additional financing: “The AF will maintain the PDO of the parent project without any change. The project development objective is to develop sustainable capacity in managing procurement, environment, and social standards in the public and private sectors.”

The funds will also scale up training and certification programmes to professionalise Nigeria’s procurement workforce.

While over 33,000 individuals have been trained under the initial phase of the project, more than 25,000 public officers are still targeted for training, based on government assessments.

While the original SPESSE credit will close by June 30, 2026, the additional funding is expected to remain in use until June 30, 2029.

“The parent credit will be closed on June 30, 2026, without any extension; however, the AF is proposed to be closed on June 30, 2029,” the World Bank stated in a document.

The new loan adds to Nigeria’s growing debt stock with the World Bank. As of March 2025, total outstanding debt to the institution stood at $18.23 billion, up from $17.81 billion in December 2024 and $15.45 billion a year earlier.

According to the latest data from the Debt Management Office (DMO), the total debt to the World Bank comprises $16.99 billion owed to the International Development Association (IDA) and $1.24 billion to the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD). World Bank loans now account for 39.6% of Nigeria’s total external debt of $45.98 billion, compared to 38.9% at the end of 2024 and 36.4% in March 2024.

With Nigeria continuing to rely on concessional funding to support public sector reforms amid limited fiscal space, the SPESSE project remains a flagship initiative under the country’s wider institutional reform agenda.

However, the growing reliance on external financing highlights the importance of ensuring that these projects deliver measurable outcomes and long-term value.

Continue Reading

Economy

Atiku Cautions Tinubu Against ‘Reckless’ Borrowing, Says It’s Economic Sabotage

Published

on

By

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has criticised the decision of the President Bola Tinubu-led administration to seek new external and domestic loans, describing the move as reckless and a threat to Nigeria’s economic future.

In a statement on Thursday via X, Atiku said the proposed borrowing of $21.54 billion, €2.19 billion, and ¥15 billion — totaling over $24 billion — would dangerously increase the country’s debt profile, raising concerns about long-term sustainability.

“This borrowing spree will raise our total public debt from ₦144.7 trillion to a crushing ₦183 trillion,” Atiku stated, warning that the new loans represent more than 60% of Nigeria’s total foreign exchange reserves.

He noted that Nigeria’s debt burden has already reached alarming levels, with public debt standing at $94 billion (₦144.7 trillion) as of December 31, 2024.

Atiku further said, “Since President Tinubu assumed office in 2023, public debt has jumped by 65.6%. Under the APC-led administration since 2015, public debt has ballooned by 1,048%, from ₦12.6 trillion to ₦144.7 trillion.”

He decried the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 50% and a debt-service-to-revenue ratio of over 130%, arguing that the government is spending more on repaying loans than it earns.

“This is not just unsustainable — it is immoral. The Tinubu administration is borrowing money not for development but to service existing loans, fueling a debt spiral that leaves nothing for infrastructure, education, healthcare, or jobs,” he said.

The former Vice President described the pattern of borrowing as a “Ponzi scheme,” warning that “Nigeria is now caught in a vicious cycle that mortgages the future to pay for the past.”

Calling the plan economic sabotage, Atiku urged immediate action to stop what he described as a looming catastrophe.

“We demand that this reckless borrowing plan be halted immediately. We call on lawmakers, civil society organisations, the media, and the international community to take urgent action to stop this looming catastrophe. Nigeria must not be sold into debt slavery,” he added.

Continue Reading

Economy

IMF Scores Tinubu’s Economic Reforms Below Pass Mark

Published

on

By

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) says that Nigeria faces significant uncertainty in its economic outlook despite wide-ranging reforms.

It, however, noted that the gains are yet to benefit all Nigerians with poverty and food insecurity remaining high.

Concluding its 2025 Article IV Consultations with Nigeria’s public policy executives during the week, IMF’s team, led by Axel Schimmelpfennig, its mission chief for Nigeria, acknowledged that Nigeria has taken important steps to stabilize the economy, enhance resilience, and support growth.

The IMF team had met with Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Abubakar Kyari, Central Bank of Nigeria Governor, Yemi Cardoso, senior government and central bank officials, the Ministry of Environment, the private sector, academia, labour unions, and civil society.

Although the IMF representatives said these reforms have put Nigeria in a better position to navigate the external environment, the macroeconomic outlook remains marked by significant uncertainty.

They said that the elevated global risk sentiment and lower oil prices would impact the Nigerian economy.

They, therefore, recommended that macroeconomic policies need to further strengthen buffers and resilience, reduce inflation, and support private sector-led growth.

The final report of the consultations stated: “The Nigerian authorities have taken important steps to stabilize the economy, enhance resilience, and support growth.

‘‘The financing of the fiscal deficit by the central bank has ceased, costly fuel subsidies were removed, and the functioning of the foreign exchange market has improved.

‘‘Gains have yet to benefit all Nigerians as poverty and food insecurity remain high.

‘‘The outlook is marked by significant uncertainty. Elevated global risk sentiment and lower oil prices impact the Nigerian economy.

‘‘The reforms since 2023 have put the Nigerian economy in a better position to navigate this external environment. ‘‘Looking ahead, macroeconomic policies need to further strengthen buffers and resilience, while creating enabling conditions for private sector-led growth.

“The authorities communicated to the mission that they will implement the 2025 budget in a manner that is responsive to the decline in international oil prices. A neutral fiscal stance would support monetary policy to bring down inflation.

‘‘To safeguard key spending priorities, it is imperative that fiscal savings from the fuel subsidy removal are channeled to the budget.

‘‘In particular, adjustments should protect critical, growth-enhancing investment, while accelerating and broadening the delivery of cash transfers under the World Bank-supported program to provide relief to those experiencing food insecurity.

“A tight monetary policy stance is required to firmly guide inflation down. The Monetary Policy Committee’s data-dependent approach has served Nigeria well and will help navigate elevated macroeconomic uncertainty.

‘‘Announcing a disinflation path to serve as an intermediate target can help anchor inflation expectations.”

Continue Reading

Trending