By Eric Elezuo

For the umpteenth time in as many days, the Dangote Refinery has adjusted the pump price of its petroleum products, with special considerations to the premium motor spirit (PMS), popularly called petrol. This has been the sequence since the America/Israel vs Iran War, which erupted on February 28, 2026; a situation that has called to question the ability of the 650,000 barrels per day capacity refinery to sustain the country in times of crisis.

In a statement made available to newsmen, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery reduced its gantry price for petrol to N1,200 per litre and its coastal price to N1,153 per litre, amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East that continue to shape global oil markets.

The adjustment however, marks a downward review in the company’s pricing structure, and is expected to influence fuel supply costs across distribution channels, including depots and retail outlets. It is however, a far cry in the original price of less than N900, which has been market value in Nigeria before the Gulf imbroglio.

Global oil prices have remained volatile since the outbreak of hostilities involving the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other, which has disrupted crude shipments from the Gulf region.

The disruption has pushed Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel, forcing countries to explore alternatives to ensure energy security.

In Nigeria, the spike in global crude prices has translated into higher domestic fuel costs. Petrol, which sold for about N870 per litre before the escalation, now averages around N1,500 per litre in parts of the country.

The Dangote Refinery has repeatedly adjusted its petrol gantry prices in response to fluctuations in global crude markets, with multiple revisions recorded since the crisis began.

Across major filling stations nationwide, petrol prices have hovered around N1,350 per litre and above, contributing to rising transport costs and broader inflationary pressures.

With the latest reduction by the refinery, Nigerians expect a gradual easing of pump prices across filling stations.

As the world oil crisis escalates, many Nigerians believe that it is for a reason such as this that the country is privileged to have the Dangote Refinery within its shores. They maintain that the crisis in the Gulf should have little or no effect on the country as a result of two factors:

1. The refinery is sited within the confines of the Nigeria, and

2. The crude oil (raw material) is sourced locally

They argue that movement is not hampered on international waters or by belligerent activities as a result of the war.

“This crude is produced and sourced here in Nigeria. The refinery is right here in Nigeria. So what explains the dilly-dally in the price of the product as if we have to cross the Strait of Hormuz before making it available to Nigerian consumers,” an Energy expert queried.

He questioned the rationale behind Dangote’s back and forth journey on the price of fuel.

“I don’t think anybody has told us the truth yet. We have the crude, and we have the refinery, so why are we buying the product at exorbitant price, and blaming the war in the gulf for it,” he further noted.

But in defence of the foremost refinery, the Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director of the Dangote Refinery, David Bird, raised concerns over Nigeria’s inability to supply sufficient crude oil to the facility, disclosing that deliveries under the government’s crude supply arrangement are falling significantly short of agreed volumes.

Speaking in an interview on Arise Television, Bird said the refinery, which is currently operating at its full capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, requires between 13 and 15 cargoes of crude monthly to meet domestic fuel demand. However, he said the refinery is only receiving about five cargoes, representing just about 30 per cent of expected supply.

He explained that the gap undermines the effectiveness of the Crude-for-Naira arrangement, a policy designed to supply crude to local refiners at international prices but without foreign exchange exposure.

According to him, while the initiative has helped stabilise Nigeria’s foreign exchange pressures, its implementation has been inconsistent, particularly in terms of both volume and crude quality allocation.

“We have been very vocal that there is an existing arrangement in place under the Crude-for-Naira programme commonly misunderstood as a pricing regime, it is not. It is priced at full international benchmark crude oil pricing, however, without the foreign exchange implication.

“That has been very successful in stabilising the FX and I think Nigeria and our relationship with NNPC and Dangote, we should all be very proud of that. That agreement, however, is not only just from volume but also a quality allocation perspective not being met.

“And our demand of the government is just to be transparent with that allocation methodology  because what we see under that agreement, we should be getting about 13 to 15 cargos a month and that’s what we could process to meet the domestic fuel requirements of Nigeria. Currently we’re only getting five.

“So that’s an underperformance against that pre-agreed volume contract. Second to that is quality. So Nigeria has a wide variety of crude grades all exported from different terminals and we have a preference,” he stressed.

Many Nigerians have divided on for and against the ability if Dangote to sustain local consumption especially in the midst of the crude crunch occasioned by the gulf crisis, others have exonerated the refinery, heaping the blames on the Federal Government-run Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Ltd (NNPCL), which has failed in its duty of making the required quantity of crude available to the refinery.

It would be recalled that ever since the launch of the Dangote Refinery, the management has consistently been at loggerheads with many petroleum-associated groups over barefaced treachery and backstabbing.

Stakeholders have said that recent developments, especially the ongoing crisis among the gulf states, highlight the strategic importance of strengthening domestic refining capacity, which Dangote, as at today, chiefly represents.