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The Oracle: Nigeria and the Nigerien Coup: The Allegory of the Hunch-Backed Cripple (Pt. 3)

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By Mike Ozekhome

INTRODUCTION

In part 2 of this seminar dissertation, we dealt with the principle and forms of intervention; and the many reasons why Nigeria should not be in a hurry to lead an unholy war to militarily attack the coupist in Niger. In this tranche, we shall highlight more of such reasons, and then take on other critical issues surrounding the Nigerien brouhaha.

MORE REASONS WHY NIGERIA SHOULD NOT LEAD ECOWAS TO ATTACK NIGER REPUBLIC
No Nigerian president can declare a war or deploy the military for an external war without the backing and approval of the Senate. Section 218(1) & (3) of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 (as amended) provides:
“(1) The powers of the President as the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federation shall include power to determine the operational use of the armed forces of the Federation”.
(3) The President may, by directions in writing and subject to such conditions as he may think fit, delegate to any member of the armed forces of the Federation his powers relating to the operational use of the armed forces of the Federation”.

In TARABA STATE GOVERNMENT STATE & ANOR. V. SHAKE & ORS (2019) LPELR-48130(CA) (Pp. 101-124 paras. F), the Court of Appeal held thus:
“…The circumstances that may arise which may impel the President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria to “determine the operational use of the Armed Forces of the Federation” under Section 218(1) and (3) of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999 is never closed but is “subject to such conditions” as the President and Commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces “may think fit…” under Section 218(3) of the Constitution. The President is also empowered to delegate such powers under Section 5(1)(a)-(b) and 215(3) of the Constitution.” Per TUR, J.C.A.

However, section 5(4) is emphatic that notwithstanding the foregoing provisions of this section –
“(a) the President shall not declare a state of war between the Federation and another country except with the sanction of a resolution of both Houses of the National Assembly sitting in a joint session; and
(b) except with the prior approval of the Senate, no member of the armed forces of the Federation shall be deployed on combat duty outside Nigeria.”
Section 5 (5) provides that:
“notwithstanding the provisions of subsection (4) of this section, the President, in consultation with the National Defence Council, may deploy members of the armed forces of the Federation on a limited combat duty outside Nigeria if he is satisfied that the national security is under imminent threat or danger:

Provided that the President shall, within seven days of actual combat engagement, seek the consent of the Senate and the Senate shall thereafter give or refuse the said consent within fourteen days”.

In the two instances cited above, the Nigerian Senate on 5th August, 2023, roundly rejected Ahmed Bola Tinubu’s moves to lead an invasion against Niger as ECOWAS Chairman, asking him to critically address the political quagmire in Niger Republic following the sack of the democratically elected Government of Mohamed Bazoum. He was urged to explore diplomatic options and other means; but not military action.

Not only this, ECOWAS countries are divided along their national interests as to whether or not to attack Niger. Majority are against it.

These have put paid to the proposed needless aggression against a sovereign state that has offered no provocation.
There are more compelling reasons why Nigeria should never lead an unholy war against a neighbouring country that has not in any way done anything to provoke her. For example, Mali and Burkina Faso have already deployed warplanes to defend a hapless Niger. More significantly, the adage is true that when a millipede crawls out of its hole, you may never tell if it will return as a millipede or as a snake. What will a war with Niger turn out to be? I do not know. Or, do you?

Russia has been angry and smarting from a nearly 2 years war of attrition with Ukraine where she had initially thought it would simply be a walk over. This has not been the case. To flex muscles and show international relevance, she may descend into the theatre of war, using the Wagner Group. Nigeria had also made the same historical mistake in 1967 when she declared war against Biafra, believing erroneously, that it would simply be a “Police action” from the Nsukka axis. It was later to balloon into a 3-year bloody civil war of attrition in which over 3 million Biafrans were killed in cold blood – a near genocide. The truth is that you can only know when a war starts; but never when and how it will end.

Russia’s Wagner Group officially known as PMC Wagner is Russian state-funded private military controlled by Yevgeny Prigozhin, a former close ally of Vladimir Putin, the Russian President. It was reportedly founded by Dimistry Valeryevich Utkin, a veteran of the First and Second Chechen wars; and it was named after his “Wagner” call sign.

The Wagner Group had since operated viciously in many countries across the world, including Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Syria, Sudan, Mozambique, Central African Republic, Mali, Libya, Sudan and Madagascar (all spamming three continents in Africa, Europe and South America). Is this the group Nigeria, an economically, socially, politically, linguistically, ethnically and religiously weak and polarised country is toying with? Have we all gone crazy? Can’t we see the looming danger? I can see it. Or, can’t you?

Niger has been our peaceful neighbour with whom we share a very long border of over 1600km for centuries. Indeed, the Islamic leader and founder of the Sokoto Caliphate, Usman Dan Fodio (born on December 15, 1754, at Maratta, Gobir), studied law, theology and philosophy in Agadez (Niger Republic) under Islamic Scholar, Jibril Ibn Umar. As a matter of fact, Niger had fully supported Nigeria during the Biafra civil war between 1967 and 1970. Paying Niger back with a war would appear to be a show of ingratitude.

Nigeria even with her economic woes, still offsets about 70 percent of the budget of ECOWAS. It is inconceivable that the western powers, including the US Congress, will simply roll ou their military drums and approve unlimited arm supplies and funds for the use of ECOWAS, to wage war against another sovereign State.

There are today, hundreds of thousands of Nigerians in various IDP camps in Niger Republic following the severe insurgency and armed banditry in the Northern part of Nigeria. As a matter of fact, Niger has been very helpful in the fight against insurgency and banditry in the lake Chad region.
Nigeria also shares the same socio-economic, cultural, ethnic, linguistic and religious heritage and ties with Niger Republic.

All our seven bordering states of Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Katsina, Jigawa, Yobe and Borno, will surely incur severe direct hits in the event of a war breaking out.
The River Niger that supports our hydroelectric power (one of our major sources of power generation) passes directly through Niger Republic. This also means that if Niger decides to construct a dam over the River Niger, our dams and source of power will become a mirage as they will dry up automatically. The proposed Nigeria-Algeria gas pipeline which is expected to supply gas to Europe must pass directly through Niger. Therefore, any conflict with Niger will kill that project in its embryonic stage.

Neither Nigeria nor other ECOWAS Countries led any military action to dislodge the military coupists in Chad (1975 and 1990); Mali (2012, 2020 and 2021); Burkina Faso (2022); and Guinea (2021). Why that of Niger Republic now? The world wonders.
How come the American and French military bases located right inside Niger Republic refused or neglected to stop a coup that they obviously saw, and are now encouraging us to go to war with a neighbouring country for?

The Niger military has always been partners and comrades in arms with Nigeria military in the multination joint force in the fight against boko haram, lSWAP, etc. Any conflict between ECOWAS and Niger will surely set friends and comrades against each other.
In any event, although the coup in Niger is sad and deplorable, it remains an internal affair of Niger and her people. Only a negotiated diplomatic settlement in the internal affairs of a sovereign nation such as Niger represents the solution to the crisis. Nigeria cannot be more Catholic than the Pope; nor cry more than the bereaved.
The recent military coup over which Nigeriens poured on the streets with jubilation does not in any way threaten the national security of Nigeria. It is a mere domestic affair.

As a matter of fact, the plotters of the coup said their intervention is to save their country from gradual and imminent extinction, given the presence of foreign troops in their country and the unabated insecurity in their country. There is also the belief that the foreign troops in Niger are there for selfish interests. What, therefore, is the basis for deploying Nigerian troops in Niger to restore a President that has been ousted from power? When Bazoum was elected president in 2021, there was a failed coup attempt about 48 hours before his inauguration. Thus, assuming Bazoum is restored to power, he still has no armed forces that will protect him.

It is only the Security Council of the United Nations can authorize military deployment in any member state. Such deployment, if any, must be done when there is a threat to the peace, breach of the peace, or act of aggression in the Niger Republic. Notwithstanding that the lawfully elected President was ousted by the military junta, there is no threat to the peace, breach of the peace, or act of aggression of such a magnitude that will now necessitate military intervention in Niger.

HISTORICAL CONTEXT: NIGER’S POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC CHALLENGES

Niger Republic, like many countries in West Africa, has experienced a history of political instability, ethnic tensions, and economic challenges. Niger Republic is one of the poorest countries in the world and has been plagued by insecurity. The state had witnessed four military coups since independence from France in 1960. In addition to the security and economic issue stated above, there is debate or uneasiness about the ethnicity and legitimacy of the ousted President, Bazoum, who is from Niger’s ethnic Arab minority. The Arabs are seen as foreigners. Also, Niger’s military was not pleased with the presence of foreign military troops and bases in their country. France’s huge investments in Niger’s mining sector is its interest in the security of Niger.

When the French and other European allies withdrew their forces from Mali in 2022, Bazoum invited them to Niger, a move that some influential individuals and the Nigerien military leadership denounced. The current coup plotters in Niger Republic stated that their intervention was necessary to avoid “the gradual and inevitable demise” of their country. In response to the recent coup of 26th July, 2023, ECOWAS is now contemplating a military intervention to restore democratic governance in the country. Lastly, a lot of Nigeriens even welcomed and celebrated the military coup.
Prior to the 26th July, 2023, coup in Niger, there had been similar attacks on democracy in Burkina Faso (2021), Mali (2012, 2020 and 2021), and Guinea (2021). Usurpers in those states also blamed their ruling governments for failing to stem a tide of insecurity that had taken over the Sahel since 2012. In the August 2020 coup in Mali, for instance, the soldiers behind the coup called themselves the “National Committee for the Salvation of the People”. One of them, Ismail Wague, Mali Air Force’s Deputy Chief of Staff, said, “We are not holding on to power but we are holding on to the stability of the country.”

To be continued

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Opinion

Book Review: Against the Odds by Dozy Mmobuosi

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By Sola Ojewusi

Against the Odds is an ambitious, deeply personal, and unflinchingly honest memoir that traces the remarkable rise of Dozy Mmobuosi, one of Nigeria’s most dynamic and controversial entrepreneurs. In this sweeping narrative, Mmobuosi reveals not just the public milestones of his career, but the intimate struggles, internal battles, and defining moments that shaped his identity and worldview.

The book is both a personal testimony and a broader commentary on leadership, innovation, and Africa’s future—and it succeeds in balancing these worlds with surprising emotional clarity.

A Candid Portrait of Beginnings

Mmobuosi’s story begins in the bustling, unpredictable ecosystem of Lagos, where early challenges served as the furnace that forged his ambitions. The memoir details the circumstances of his upbringing, the value systems passed down from family, and the early encounters that sparked his desire to build solutions at scale.

These foundational chapters do important work: they humanize the protagonist. Readers meet a young Dozy not as a business figurehead, but as a Nigerian navigating complex social, financial, and personal realities—realities that millions of Africans will find familiar.

The Making of an Entrepreneur

As the narrative progresses, the memoir transitions into the defining phase of Mmobuosi’s business evolution. Here, he walks readers through the origins of his earliest ventures and the relentless curiosity that led him to operate across multiple industries—fintech, agri-tech, telecoms, AI, healthcare, consumer goods, and beyond.

What is striking is the pattern of calculated risk-taking. Mmobuosi positions himself as someone unafraid to venture into uncharted territory, even when the cost of failure is steep. His explanations offer readers valuable insights into:
• market intuition
• the psychology of entrepreneurship
• the sacrifices required to build at scale
• the emotional and operational toll of high-growth ventures

These passages make the book not only readable but instructive—especially for emerging

African entrepreneurs.

Triumphs, Crises, and Public Scrutiny
One of the book’s most compelling strengths is its willingness to confront controversy head-on.

Mmobuosi addresses periods of intense scrutiny, institutional pressure, and personal trials.

Instead of glossing over these chapters, he uses them to illustrate the complexities of building businesses in emerging markets and navigating public perception.

The tone is reflective rather than defensive, inviting readers to consider the thin line between innovation and misunderstanding in environments where the rules are still being written.

This vulnerability is where the memoir finds its emotional resonance.

A Vision for Africa

Beyond personal history, Against the Odds expands into a passionate manifesto for African transformation. Mmobuosi articulates a vision of a continent whose young population, natural resources, and intellectual capital position it not as a follower, but a potential leader in global innovation.

He challenges outdated narratives about Africa’s dependency, instead advocating for
homegrown technology, supply chain sovereignty, inclusive economic systems, and investment in human capital.

For development strategists, policymakers, and visionaries, these sections elevate the work from memoir to thought leadership.

The Writing: Accessible, Engaging, and Purposeful

Stylistically, the memoir is direct and approachable. Mmobuosi writes with clarity and intention, blending storytelling with reflection in a way that keeps the momentum steady. The pacing is effective: the book moves seamlessly from personal anecdotes to business lessons, from introspection to bold declarations.

Despite its business-heavy subject matter, the prose remains accessible to everyday readers.

The emotional honesty, in particular, will appeal to those who appreciate memoirs that feel lived rather than curated.

Why This Book Matters

Against the Odds arrives at a critical moment for Africa’s socioeconomic trajectory. As global attention shifts toward African innovation, the need for authentic narratives from those building within the system becomes essential.

Mmobuosi’s memoir offers:
• a case study in resilience
• an insider’s perspective on entrepreneurship in frontier markets
• a meditation on reputation, legacy, and leadership
• a rallying cry for African ambition

For readers like Sola Ojewusi, whose work intersects with media, policy, leadership, and social development, this book offers profound insight into the human stories driving Africa’s new generation of builders.

Final Verdict

Against the Odds is more than a success story—it is a layered, introspective, and timely work that captures the pressures and possibilities of modern African enterprise. It challenges stereotypes, raises important questions about leadership and impact, and ultimately delivers a narrative of persistence that audiences across the world will find relatable.

It is an essential read for anyone interested in the future of African innovation, the personal realities behind public leadership, and the enduring power of vision and resilience

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Opinion

Redefining Self-leadership: Henry Ukazu As a Model

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By Abdulakeem Sodeeq SULYMAN
In a world filled with talents and unique gifts, nurturing oneself for an impact-filled living becomes one of the potent metrics for assuming how one’s life would unfold – either in the nearest or far future. I am sure the question you may be curious to ask is ‘what is the important quality that has shaped the life of every individual who has unleashed their ingenuity?’ Apparently, our society is filled with numerous people, who missed the track of their life. Their iniquity is boiled down to one thing – failure to lead oneself.
Realising how important it is to be your own leader has been the springboard for every transformative life. Notably, this also becomes the premise for appreciating and celebrating Henry Ukazu for setting the pace and modeling self-leadership in this era, where self-leadership is under-appreciated by our people. Self-leadership itself engineers purposeful and impactful living, turning individuals to sources of hope to others.
This is exactly what Henry Ukazu symbolises. The name Henry Ukazu is akin to many great things such as ‘Unleashing One’s Destiny,’ ‘Finding One’s Purpose’ and ‘Triumphant Living.’ Regardless of the impression one have formed about Henry Ukazu, one thing you cannot deny is his ability to be pure to nature and committed to his cause. Henry Ukazu is one of the rare people who still believed in the values of the human worth and has committed every penny of his to ensure that every human deserves to live the best life.
The trajectory of Henry Ukazu’s life is convincing enough to be choosing as an icon by anyone who chooses to climb the ladder of self-leadership. Oftentimes, Henry Ukazu always narrate how he faced the storms of life when birthing his purpose. He takes honour in his struggles, knowing full well that every stumbling blocks life throws at him helped in building himself. If not for self-leadership, he will not found honours in his struggles, let alone challenging himself to be an example of purposeful living to others.
Without mincing words, Henry Ukazu’s life has been blessed with the presence of many people, with some filling his life with disappointments, while some blessing him with immeasurable transformations. Surprisingly, Henry Ukazu has never chosen to be treating people negatively; rather he would only choose the path of honour by avoiding drama and let common sense prevail. That’s one of the height of simplicity!
Dear readers, do you know why today is important for celebrating Henry Ukazu? Today, 3rd December, is his birthday and with all sincerity, Henry Ukazu deserves to be celebrated because he has chosen the noble path, one filled with honours and recognitions for being an icon of inspiration and transformation to the mankind. As Henry Ukazu marks another year today, may the good Lord continue shielding him from all evils and guiding him in right directions, where posterity will feel his role and impacts!
Many happy returns, Sir!

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Opinion

The Fault Lines of Power: A Global Leadership Crisis and the Path to Restoration

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By Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD

“Across the world, we are navigating the fault lines of outdated leadership. The future belongs to those who can mend these cracks with the mortar of integrity, the vision of long-term purpose, and the resilience of empowered people” Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD

Leadership serves as the foundational pillar for any thriving organization, corporation, or nation. It is the critical framework meant to ensure stability, inspire direction, and foster resilience against challenges. Yet, a pervasive and unsettling phenomenon is emerging worldwide: the development of deep fault lines within these very structures of authority. This crisis of confidence spans sectors and continents, from established Western democracies to burgeoning economies in the Global South.

This examination explores these global leadership fissures, with a specific focus on Nigeria’s complex landscape. We will diagnose the universal symptoms, analyze their acute manifestation in the Nigerian context, and ultimately, propose a constructive framework for renewal aimed at individuals, businesses, and governments.

Diagnosing the Global Leadership Decay

The erosion of effective leadership rarely happens overnight. It typically begins with subtle, often ignored fractures that gradually weaken the entire system. These fractures commonly appear as:

  1. The Credibility Chasm: A growing disconnect between a leader’s promises and their tangible actions. When rhetoric of transparency clashes with a reality of opacity, the essential bond of trust is severed.
  2. The Tyranny of the Immediate: An overwhelming focus on short-term gains—be it quarterly earnings or political popularity—that sacrifices long-term strategy and sustainable health. This is the equivalent of building on unstable ground.
  3. Strategic Inertia: In a world defined by rapid change, leaders who cling to outdated, rigid hierarchies render their organizations incapable of adapting, innovating, or surviving future shocks.
  4. The Empathy Void: Leadership that is intellectually or emotionally detached from the realities of its people, employees, or citizens. This breeds disengagement, stifles collaboration, and fuels a silent exodus of talent and goodwill.
  5. The Succession Failure: A critical neglect of leadership pipeline development, which creates a dangerous vacuum of vision and competence during transitions, jeopardizing institutional memory and future stability.

The Nigerian Context: A Magnified View of the Crisis

Nigeria, a nation brimming with phenomenal human and natural potential, offers a powerful case study where these global fault lines are particularly pronounced and consequential.

Within the Political Arena:

Leadership is frequently marred by a system that rewards patronage over performance. Rampant corruption diverts essential resources from critical public services, leading to a catastrophic decay in infrastructure, healthcare, and education. This, combined with policy instability across political administrations, creates an environment of uncertainty that discourages vital long-term investment.

Within the Corporate Sphere:

Many organizations, including prominent family-owned conglomerates, are hindered by overly centralized decision-making and weak corporate governance structures. When nepotism overshadows meritocracy, innovation is suppressed, and employee motivation withers. A survivalist mindset, driven by a challenging economic climate, often trumps strategic investment in talent and innovation.

Within Public Institutions:

A pervasive culture of bureaucracy and inefficiency often widens the gap between the government and the governed. This leads to profound citizen frustration and a demoralized public workforce, undermining the very purpose of these institutions.

The cumulative effect of these intersecting failures is a palpable national anxiety—a widespread belief that the nation is operating far below its potential, not due to a lack of resources or talent, but because of a fundamental breakdown in its leadership frameworks.

A Framework for Renewal: Building Resilient Leadership

Identifying the problem is only the first step. The imperative is to forge a path forward. The following advisory framework outlines how to bridge these fault lines and unlock latent possibilities.

For Individuals (The Agents of Change):

  1. Transition from Spectator to Stakeholder: Exercise accountability through informed civic participation and constructive advocacy. Use platforms, including digital media, to demand transparency and results from leaders.
  2. Embody Ethical Leadership Daily: Demonstrate integrity, accountability, and empathy within your immediate circle—your workplace, community, and family. Leadership is an action, not merely a position.
  3. Commit to Lifelong Learning: Proactively acquire new skills, cultivate a global perspective, and strengthen your emotional intelligence to navigate an increasingly complex world.
  4. Engage in Reciprocal Mentorship: Actively seek guidance while also dedicating time to mentor others. Cultivating the next generation is a collective responsibility that ensures a continuous flow of capable leaders.

For Corporations (The Economic Catalysts):

  1. Ingrain, Don’t Just Install, Governance: Move beyond superficial compliance. Foster a culture where independent boards, radical transparency, and ethical practices are non-negotiable core values.
  2. Systematize Leadership Development: Establish robust talent management and succession planning programs. Intentionally identify and nurture future leaders through targeted training, mentorship, and strategic role assignments.
  3. Champion a Stakeholder-Centric Purpose: Define a corporate mission that creates genuine value for all stakeholders—employees, customers, communities, and the environment. This builds lasting brand equity and attracts purpose-driven talent.
  4. Cultivate Psychologically Safe Spaces: Foster an organizational climate where employees feel empowered to voice ideas, question assumptions, and experiment without fear of reprisal. This is the bedrock of a truly innovative and adaptive organization.

For Nations (The Architects of Society):

  1. Fortify Institutions Over Individuals: Invest in building strong, independent institutions—such as the judiciary, electoral commissions, and anti-corruption bodies—that can function autonomously and uphold the rule of law.
  2. Prioritize Human Capital as the Supreme Asset: Direct national investment toward foundational pillars like quality public education and healthcare. An educated, healthy, and skilled populace is the most critical driver of sustainable national development.
  3. Articulate and Adhere to a Long-Term National Vision: Develop a strategic, non-partisan national development plan that provides a consistent direction for policy, transcending political cycles and uniting citizens around a common goal.
  4. Establish a Consequence-Based Culture: Implement a system where integrity is visibly rewarded and corruption is met with swift, transparent, and impartial justice, regardless of the offender’s status.

Conclusion: Laying a New Foundation

The fault lines in global leadership present a significant challenge, but they also offer a clarion call for renewal. The solution lies in a deliberate return to the core tenets of visionary, accountable, and empathetic leadership.

For Nigeria, and for the world at large, delivering on our shared potential requires a concerted effort to repair these foundations. We must collectively shift from a culture of short-sightedness to one of intergenerational stewardship, and from fractured allegiances to a unified commitment to the common good.

The blueprint for change is clear. By choosing to reinforce our leadership at every level, we can transform these fault lines into cornerstones for a more prosperous, stable, and equitable future. The responsibility to build rests with all of us.

Dr. Tolulope A. Adegoke, AMBP-UN is a Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) in History and International Studies, Fellow Certified Management Consultant & Specialist, Fellow Certified Human Resource Management Professional, a Recipient of the Nigerian Role Models Award (2024), and a Distinguished Ambassador For World Peace (AMBP-UN). He has also gained inclusion in the prestigious compendium, “Nigeria @65: Leaders of Distinction”.

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