By Eric Elezuo

The sounds of the drums of war Nigeria’s president and Chairman, Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Authority of Heads of State and Government, Bola Tinubu, is beating is gradually richochetting within the length and breadth of the West African sub-region, albeit negatively as Nigerians rue what the predicted outcome will portend.

On July 27, 2023, the two years old administration of Mohammed Bazoum was toppled in a military coup by a group of soldiers led by Brigade General Abdourahamane Tchiani. Among reasons given for the coup were the rise in insecurity and declining economic prospects, which contributed to fragility in the country. There was also the debate over the ethnicity and legitimacy of Bazoum, which was an issue during the last election campaign. Bazoum is from Niger’s ethnic Arab minority and has always been labelled as having foreign origins. This did not sit well within the military circle, which is predominantly composed of the larger ethnic groups.

There was also the issue of the large number of foreign military troops and bases in the country said not to have been well received by the military. Again, France’s huge investments in Niger’s mining sector are another reason for its interest in security.

But the administration of Tinubu, both as president of Nigeria and ECOWAS leader had given the military junta an ultimatum of seven days in which they are supposed to relinquish power back to the ousted president. A move many Nigerians have dismissed as a dangerous gamble.

In a communique at the end of the Extraordinary Summit on Socio-Political Situation in the Republic of Niger, held in Abuja, the leaders also rejected any form of purported resignation by President Bazoum, declaring him as the only recognised and elected president by ECOWAS, the African Union and the international community.

“In this regard, only official acts of President Bazoum or his duly-mandated officials will be recognised by ECOWAS,’’ the communique read by the president of ECOWAS Commission, Dr Omar Touray, noted.

They demanded full restoration of constitutional order in the Republic of Niger and considered the illegal detention of President Mohamed Bazoum as a hostage situation, holding the authors of the attempted coup d’état solely and fully responsible for his safety and security and that of his family and government.

They also said that a some drastic measures will be resorted to if at the expiration of seven days, their demands were not met.

“Such measures may include the use of force for this effect. The Chiefs of Defence staff of ECOWAS are to meet immediately,’’ the leaders said.

In addition to ultimatum, the Summit announced immediate sanctions on Niger, including the closure of land and air borders between ECOWAS countries and Niger, establishing a no-fly zone on all commercial flights to and from Niger, and suspending all commercial and financial transactions between ECOWAS member states and Niger.

Furthermore, assets of the Republic of Niger in ECOWAS Central Bank, Niger state enterprises, and parastatals in commercial banks will be frozen.

Niger will also be suspended from all financial assistance and transactions with financial institutions within ECOWAS.

Additionally, travel bans and asset freezes were imposed on the military officials involved in the coup attempt, as well as their family members and civilians who accept to participate in any institution or government established by these military officials.

But back home, knocks have trailed the zeal of President Tinubu to follow suit on military action even as the seven-day ultimatum draws to a close. He has sought leave from the Godswill Akpabio-led Senate to unleash military might on the Tchiani junta. Though denied, Tinubu has cut off electricity to the West African country as well as shut all borders connecting the two countries. In retaliation, the junta has cut diplomatic ties with Nigeria in addition to France and the United States of America. The way it is, there’s no love lost between Nigeria and the Nigerien junta.

However, while the ECOWAS nations are plotting means to oust the coupists, the people of Niger are queuing solidly behind the new regime, and ridiculing ECOWAS and the Nigeria’s president as impostors, who are yet to put their organisation and individual nations in order.

Many theories have been propounded to prove the insincerity of Tinubu’s loud drums of war, with the likes of Timi Frank, a former All Progressives Congress (APC) spokesperson saying he is seeking state of emergency so as to have enough grounds to suspend the ongoing Presidential Election Petition Tribunal, where Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Peter Obi of the Labour Party are contesting his victory at the February 25 polls and the legitimacy of his government.

He said: “It is clear to discerning minds that Tinubu wants to find an alibi to declare war in Niger and under that declare a state of emergency in Nigeria which will invariably lead to suspension of the ongoing sitting of the Presidential Election tribunal.

“He is not out to restore democracy in Niger Republic. He is out to legitimize and gain recognition for his government from western allies. Let Nigeriens solve their problems, Nigeria has enough challenges of its own.”

But for a professor of Political Science, Jibrin Ibrahim, who spoke to Premium Times, the use of force in Niger will be a “real crisis for ECOWAS, Nigeria and the Sahel because the risk of the major sustained crisis is real.”

He added that the size of Niger with its scattered population and land mass will make a military campaign perilous. He also posited that a war at this time is not in the interest of ECOWAS or Nigeria but the West.

“The Russians have made it very clear that they will support the Niger military in this fight, so, we may have a fight that is really a fight between Russia and America and we are simply puns in that fight. That for me is the biggest risk for West Africa,” Ibrahim said.

In his article, Tinubu’s Risky Niger Gamble, Shetty’s Embarrassment, social commentator, Farooq Kperogi, observed as follows:

“But going to war with another country because it unfortunately devolved into a system of government that, in our judgement, is abhorrent is unwarrantedly arrogant, provocative, and reckless. This is particularly more so because, at least for now, the new military junta in Niger Republic enjoys enormous goodwill among the vast majority of the citizens of the country.

“I have seen massive demonstrations in support of the new military regime in rural and urban Niger— and against President Bola Tinubu whom demonstrators have rechristened “Ebola Tinubu” to signal the toxicity and unwelcomeness of his intrusion into the internal affairs of their country. Nigeriens obviously have no problems at the moment with the junta in power. When they do, they’ll find a way to deal with it. Who are we to tell them how they should conduct their affairs and whom they should prefer as their rulers?”

In addition to the outrage that is trailing Tinubu’s desire to launch military onslaught against Niger Republic, senators from the northern part of Nigeria, have registered their angst, asking the president to rethink his decision as it may portend danger to about six states that ebued on Niger including Sokoto, Borno, Jigawa among others.

A statement made available to newsmen by spokesperson of the Northern Senators Caucus,  Senator Suleiman  Kawu, insisted that emphasis should be focused on political and diplomatic means to restore democratic government in Niger Republic.

“We also take exception to use of military force until other avenues as mentioned above are exhausted as the consequences will be casualties among the innocent citizens who go about their daily business. Besides, about seven northern states who shared border with Niger Republic namely Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina, Zamfara, Jigawa, Yobe and Borno will be negatively affected.

“We are also aware of the situation of Mali, Burkina Faso and Libya, which may affect the seven Northern states, if military force is used.

“There is serious implication for our country, if  military force is used without exhausting all diplomatic channels.

“As democrats and representatives of the people we are hereby urging our colleagues to observe due diligence in invoking section 5 sub section (4) (a) and (b) of the 1999 Constitution as amended to guide President Tinubu on the planned military action.”

Whichever way the pendulum swings, stakeholders have argued that any military incursion in Niger Republic is a clear case of dangerous gamble, and must be discontinued.