Connect with us

Opinion

Opinion: Ekiti Polls and the Near futility of Election Petitions

Published

on

By Raymond Nkannebe; Esq.

Last Monday, the Ekiti State Election Petition Tribunal which sat in Abuja over the July 14th gubernatorial election delivered its judgement. The three-man panel led by Justice Suleman Belgore in a unanimous judgment affirmed the victory of the incumbent governor Kayode Fayemi and dismissed the Petition of the Petitioners─ Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and its candidate, Professor Olusola Eleka at that keenly contested poll. The PDP has since indicated its position to challenge the decision at the appellate courts from what one could infer from the statement of its National Publicity Secretary, Kola Ologbondiyan in the wake of the decision. Barring when they do that, what the judgment of the tribunal has shown again, is that it is becoming increasingly difficult, if not impossible for a candidate at an election to be returned through an election petition. And the reason for this is not hard to seek.

As much as the Electoral Act 2010 (as amended) operates as a substantive and procedural legal framework for aggrieved candidates at an election to challenge the outcome of same, a calm consideration of the Act as well as the cases, will leave the objective reader with the irresistible impression that it was never the intendment of the draftsman of that legislation that our electoral process be exposed to undue litigation before the actual winner can be known. The smoking gun of this hypothesis is made manifest in the sisyphean onus thrust on the shoulders of a Petitioner at an Election Petition Tribunal before he or she can prove to the required standard of proof that the entire proess of the election was fraught with widespread irregularity and non compliance with the extant laws; so material that it should tantamount to the nullification of the entire election, or a return in his favour

A very fine jurist PATS-ACHOLONU J.S.C (as he then was) underscored the daunting task faced by a petitioner in challenging election to the office of president or Governor in Nigeria in the popular case of Buhari v Obasanjo [2005] 13 NWLR (Pt.941) 1 thus, “The very big obstacle that anyone who seeks to have the election of the president or Governor upturned is the very large number of witnesses he must call due to the size of the respective constitutency. In a Country like our own, he may have to call about 250,000-300,000 witnesses. By the time the court would have heard from all of them with the way our present law is couched, the incumbent would have long finished and left his office and even if the petitioner finally wins, it will be an empty victory bereft of substance”.

While time for the presenting and determination of election petitions have been abridged by the subsequent amendments to the Electoral Act between then and now, it has not taken away the evidential obstacle faced by a petitioner, which as has been shown in many cases is difficult to discharge in a way that would lead the court to order a return of a petitioner.

I like to think that this evidential burden thrust on a petitioner was purposely written into our laws, to discourage candidates at an alection from challenging the process in the event of a loss, in the same way the legal burden thrust on the prosecution in criminal trials is purporsely written into the laws to further cement the presumption of innocence enjoyed by an accused person. Little wonder why the courts have in several cases held that every election is presumed to have been conducted in full compliance with the provisions of the Electoral Act and its guidelines until proven to the contrary.This line of thought will however beg the question: should candidates who participated at an election be shut out or recused from contesting the result of the polls especially in the face of wide spread irregularity or evidence of rigging such as was alleged by the petitioners in the recently conducted Osun and Ekiti State polls? This admittedly is the crux of the matter.

Granted that there is no easy way of attempting and answer to the legitimate poser; but when one factors the near impossibility of winning back a perceived lost mandate through an election petition given the current state of our laws, the need to imbibe the values of equanimity becomes instructive.

Since the return to uninterrupted democracy in 1999, thousands of election petitions have made it to election tribunals, with many of them going up all the way to the Supreme Court, only to end up in a debilitating defeat for a Petitioner as the attitude of the courts is one that seldom likes to meddle in the choice of who becomes the holder of an elective office. The tribunals as well as the appellate Courts have betrayed these sentiments in a long chain of cases with the incumbent president Muhamadu Buhari being a serial ‘victim’.

Except for the isolated cases of Adams Oshiohmole, Olusegun Mimiko, Peter Obi and few others who at different times were returned through an election Petition, several other petitions have gone all the way to the apex Court without ending in a return for the petitioners or a rerun.

In order to institutionalize this judicial disposition to election petitions, the courts in their wisdom have devised several ingenious means within the ambit of the law, most of them tending to technicalities, to further shore up the presumption of regularity which every election enjoys to the detriment of Petitioners who allege fowl play. Anyone who appreciates the jurisprudence of election petitions will have no doubt that it is an exercise in undue legalese which in many cases edges off a petitioner no matter the grounds of the individual petition.

At the risk of sounding too hypothetical, some instances might sufice: It is a fashion for petitioners to make a criminal allegations against electoral officers at large in the body of the petition, but almost always fail to join them as parties to the Petition for obvious reasons; thereby leading to a striking out of the portions of the pleading alleging criminal wrongs against those persons in line with the extant position of the law. The apex Court in the popular case of Buhari v Obasano (supra) had reason to pronoune on this recurring procedural blunder thus: “allegations of the commission of a crime must be proved beyond reasonable doubt whenever they are made in an election petition. It is therefore inappropriate for a Court to infer that a particular candidate at an election was responsible for the violent acts committed during an election in the absence of evidence which shows beyond reasonable doubt that he was”.

But that is not all. It is also a fashion for petitioners to allege the compromise of security operatives on election day; an allegation which usually takes the form of emasculation and intimidation of supporters and party members as was the case in the ongoing Osun election petition, but always fail to make the indicted member(s) of the security operatives parties to the petition, understandably due to the near impossibility of identifying the particular officers who were involved in these alleged acts of intimidation and compromise. This procedural ommision at the instance of the petitioners almost always receive the backlash of the tribunal and a subsequent striking out of those portions of the petition in line with the extant law on pleadings and leading of evidence.

The story is also the same for allegations in a petition taking criminal coloration such as one, that an electoral officer was involved in the mutilation of results, forgery or wrongful balloting to confer advantage to a particular candidate. This specie of allegations being criminal in nature, are almost always not proved as Petitioners often find themselves unable to do so to the required evidential standard, which is ‘proof beyond reasonable doubt’. By practice, these collateral and recurring procedural misteps, takes the shine off the petition thus earning it an order of strking out, irrespective of what might have played out at the polling units on election day.

It is this rather convoluted nature of our electoral jurisprudence that has aggregated to put the resolution of electoral disputes out of the reach of petitioners. Yet, for candidates at any election to be able to cultivate the habit of accepting the result of the process since only one candidate can emerge victorious at a time, it goes without saying that they must be convinced that the entire process of the election conformed with the minimum requirements of the electoral laws and its guidelines without inteference from any quarters.

Many candidates that have queued up to contest one elective office or the other in the forthcoming general elections have said as much. For instance, when Professor Kingsley Moghalu of the Young Progressives Party (YPP) was asked recently whether he’d contest the result of the presidential election if he loses, his simple response to the interviewer, was that if the entire process is free and fair, he’ll of course accept the result. From this response, one could easily infer the workings of the minds of other candidates in the forthcoming election on the issue of acceptance of the result of the polls.

Which brings us to the role of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and the security agencies in the scheme of things. While one must commend the INEC for its efforts thus far in cleaning up and enhancing the integrity of our elections, the fact of the matter remains that there is still a lot of work to be done. What the recent elections in Ekiti and Osun States respectively show, is that there are still missing links here and there in its internal processes which operate to cast doubt on the state of its aloofness in the conduct of elections. The forthcoming elections it is expected, will be another test of its capacity to midwife an election that will be accepted by all and sundry without the imperatives of contest before any election tribunal. If they fail to live up to this billing, it’ll leave aggrieved candidates with no option but to challenge the results without giving any considerations to the possibilities (however slim) of a return through the tortious runway of election petitions.

On the part of security agencies, their roles in the conduct of elections have been anything but complimentary. By deploying acts of intimidation of voters and taking sides when they ought to be neutral, they give away their compromised stance. And needless to say, when opponents at an election perceive the police and other security agencies to be doing a yeo man’s job for a particular candidate (usually the incumbent), it does not augur well for their confidence in the entire process.

A very eminent but retired justice of the Court of Appeal (now Nigeria’s Amabssador to the United States) Per. S.A Nsofor painted graphically the unprofessional performance of the Nigerian police in the 2003 presidential election in his dissenting opinion in the notorious case of Buhari v Obasanjo [2005] 2 N.W.L.R (Pt. 910) CA 241 thus: “And there was a patent demonstration of connivance, “bias” on the part of the police against the petitioners and in favour of the 1st and 2nd Respondents. They turned blind eyes to the attrocities being inflicted on the innocent Nigerian citizens; by the army and the police. And INEC was passive. See the evidence by Dr. Okilo (PW. 69), D.W 23 (Lt. Col. Sotunde Aina Songonuga). In Bayelsa state there was evidence galore of violence, which i believed. See P.W. 52, 53 and 54. Dr. Okilo (PW. 69). In Rivers State evidence abound and I accepted it, (see P.W. 32), that there were armed gangs shooting at random intimidating the Petitioners and their supporters in the face of the police. And the Police did nothing and said nothing…” Some 13 years after this very profound findings by the erudite jurist, the Nigeria police and other security agencies are yet to turn a new leaf from what one can gather from their performance in recent polls.

For elections to be adjudged free and fair, they must not be fraught with any form of intimidation on the part of security agencies whose role at elections is delimited by the provisions of the Electoral Act; the extant legal framework for the conduct of elections. Consequently, the security agencies must not only be neutral, but manifestly seen to be neutral in all their engagements with the electoral process. Given the woeful conduct of the Nigerian police force particularly, under the leadership of the former Police Chief, Idris Kpotum, one can only but expect that the force under its new leadership will turn a new leaf and use the opportunity of the forthcoming elections to assert its professionalism.

Whichever way one looks at it, it is not in the best interest of our democracy for our periodic elections to be contested at election tribunals especially with a disturbing frequency, so much that it has become a part of the electoral process, if not the definitive part. Per Abdullahi PCA (as he then was now rtd.) voiced his reprehension for this anomaly in a notable pronouncement in the Buhari v Obasanjo case (supra), “I think it is appropriate at this juncture to make some observations. I believe the time has come in our learning process to establish the culture of democratic rule in this Country to strive to do the right thing, particularly when it comes to dealing with electoral process, which is in my view is one of the pillars of democracy”. This couldnt have been said any better.

Election petitions are energy sapping, time sensitive, and financially tasking when one considers all that goes into its prosecution both for the Petitioners and the Respondents. For the Petitioners, it is another long walk to a destination that may not be reached. And for the Respondents, it is a needless distraction from the business of governance. But more than anything else, it is the opportunity it offers the courts to be the ultimate decider of who is the actual winner at an election against the democratic principle of franchise that highlights its undemocratic contours.

Flowing from the above, I do not envy his Excellency Kayode Fayemi despite his victory at the tribunal and I have nothing but sympathy for his opponent, Professor Olusola Eleka. Both men are in my considered opinion, victims of an electoral process that urgently needs an overhaul. No democratic state should be at the mercy of election tribunals at periodic elections to decide the colouration of its leaderhip.

Raymond Nkannebe is a Legal Practitioner and Public Affairs Analyst. Comments and reactions to raymondnkannebe@gmail.com.

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Opinion

Reimagining the African Leadership Paradigm: A Comprehensive Blueprint

Published

on

By

By Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD

“To lead Africa forward is to move from transactional authority to transformational stewardship—where institutions outlive individuals, data informs vision, and service is the only valid currency of governance” – Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD

The narrative of African leadership in the 21st century stands at a critical intersection of profound potential and persistent paradox. The continent, pulsating with the world’s youngest demographic and endowed with immense natural wealth, nonetheless contends with systemic challenges that stifle its ascent. This divergence between capacity and outcome signals not merely a failure of policy, but a deeper crisis of leadership philosophy and practice. As the global order undergoes seismic shifts, the imperative for African nations to fundamentally re-strategize their approach to governance has transitioned from an intellectual exercise to an existential necessity. Nigeria, by virtue of its demographic heft, economic scale, and cultural influence, serves as the continent’s most significant crucible for this transformation. The journey of Nigerian leadership from its current state to its potential apex offers a blueprint not only for its own 200 million citizens but for an entire continent in search of a new compass.

Deconstructing the Legacy Model: A Diagnosis of Systemic Failure

To construct a resilient future, we must first undertake an unflinching diagnosis of the present. The prevailing leadership archetype across much of Africa, with clear manifestations in Nigeria’s political economy, is built upon a foundation that has proven tragically unfit for purpose. This model is characterized by several interlocking dysfunctions:

·         The Primacy of Transactional Politics Over Transformational Vision: Governance has too often been reduced to a complex system of transactions—votes exchanged for short-term patronage, positions awarded for loyalty over competence, and resource allocation serving political expediency rather than national strategy. This erodes public trust and makes long-term, cohesive planning impossible.

·         The Tyranny of the Short-Term Electoral Cycle: Leadership decisions are frequently held hostage to the next election, sacrificing strategic investments in education, infrastructure, and industrialization on the altar of immediate, visible—yet fleeting—gains. This creates a perpetual cycle of reactive governance, preventing the execution of decade-spanning national projects.

·         Administrative Silos and Bureaucratic Inertia: Government ministries and agencies often operate as isolated fiefdoms, with limited inter-departmental collaboration. This siloed approach fragments policy implementation, leads to contradictory initiatives, and renders the state apparatus inefficient and unresponsive to complex, cross-sectoral challenges like climate change, public health, and national security.

·         The Demographic Disconnect: Africa’s most potent asset is its youth. Yet, a vast governance gap separates a dynamic, digitally-native, and globally-aware generation from political structures that remain opaque, paternalistic, and slow to adapt. This disconnect fuels alienation, brain drain, and social unrest.

·         The Weakness of Institutions and the Cult of Personality: When the strength of a state is vested in individuals rather than institutions, it creates systemic vulnerability. Independent judiciaries, professional civil services, and credible electoral commissions are weakened, leading to arbitrariness in the application of law, erosion of meritocracy, and a deep-seated crisis of public confidence.

The tangible outcomes of this flawed model are the headlines that define the continent’s challenges: infrastructure deficits that strangle commerce, public education and healthcare systems in states of distress, jobless economic growth, multifaceted security threats, and the chronic hemorrhage of human capital. To re-strategize leadership is to directly address these outputs by redesigning the very system that produces them.

Pillars of a Reformed Leadership Architecture: A Holistic Framework

The new leadership paradigm must be constructed not as a minor adjustment, but as a holistic architectural endeavor. It requires foundational pillars that are interdependent, mutually reinforcing, and built to endure beyond political transitions.

1. The Philosophical Core: Embracing Servant-Leadership and Ethical Stewardship
The most profound change must be internal—a recalibration of the leader’s fundamental purpose. The concept of the leader as a benevolent “strongman” must give way to the model of the servant-leader. This philosophy, rooted in both timeless African communal values (ubuntu) and modern ethical governance, posits that the true leader exists to serve the people, not vice versa. It is characterized by deep empathy, radical accountability, active listening, and a commitment to empowering others. Success is measured not by the leader’s personal accumulation of power or wealth, but by the tangible flourishing, security, and expanded opportunities of the citizenry. This ethos fosters trust, the essential currency of effective governance.

2. Strategic Foresight and Evidence-Based Governance
Leadership must be an exercise in building the future, not just administering the present. This requires the collaborative development of a clear, compelling, and inclusive national vision—a strategic narrative that aligns the energies of government, private sector, and civil society. For Nigeria, frameworks like Nigeria’s Agenda 2050 and the National Development Plan must be de-politicized and treated as binding national covenants. Furthermore, in the age of big data, governance must transition from intuition-driven to evidence-based. This necessitates significant investment in data collection, analytics, and policy-informing research. Whether designing social safety nets, deploying security resources, or planning agricultural subsidies, decisions must be illuminated by rigorous data, ensuring efficiency, transparency, and measurable impact.

3. Institutional Fortification: Building the Enduring Pillars of State
A nation’s longevity and stability are directly proportional to the strength and independence of its institutions. Re-strategizing leadership demands an unwavering commitment to institutional architecture:

·         An Impervious Judiciary: The rule of law must be absolute, with a judicial system insulated from political and financial influence, guaranteeing justice for the powerful and the marginalized alike.

·         Electoral Integrity as Sacred Trust: Democratic legitimacy springs from credible elections. Investing in independent electoral commissions, transparent technology, and robust legal frameworks is non-negotiable for political stability.

·         A Re-professionalized Civil Service: The bureaucracy must be transformed into a merit-driven, technologically adept, and well-remunerated engine of state, shielded from the spoils system and empowered to implement policy effectively.

·         Robust, Transparent Accountability Ecosystems: Anti-corruption agencies require genuine operational independence, adequate funding, and protection. Complementing this, transparent public procurement platforms and mandatory asset declarations for public officials must become normalized practice.

4. Collaborative and Distributed Leadership: The Power of the Collective
The monolithic state cannot solve wicked problems alone. The modern leader must be a convener-in-chief, architecting platforms for sustained collaboration. This involves actively fostering a triple-helix partnership:

·         The Public Sector sets the vision, regulates, and provides enabling infrastructure.

·         The Private Sector drives investment, innovation, scale, and job creation.

·         Academia and Civil Society contribute research, grassroots intelligence, independent oversight, and specialized implementation capacity.
This model distributes responsibility, leverages diverse expertise, and fosters innovative solutions—from public-private partnerships in infrastructure to tech-driven civic engagement platforms.

5. Human Capital Supremacy: The Ultimate Strategic Investment
A nation’s most valuable asset walks on two feet. Re-strategized leadership places a supreme, non-negotiable priority on developing human potential. For Nigeria and Africa, this demands a generational project:

·         Revolutionizing Education: Curricula must be overhauled to foster critical thinking, digital literacy, STEM proficiency, and entrepreneurial mindset—skills for the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Investment in teacher training and educational infrastructure is paramount.

·         Building a Preventive, Resilient Health System: Focus must shift from curative care in central hospitals to robust, accessible primary healthcare. A healthy population is a productive population, forming the basis of economic resilience.

·         Creating an Enabling Environment for Talent: Beyond education and health, leadership must provide the ecosystem where talent can thrive: reliable electricity, ubiquitous broadband, access to venture capital, and a regulatory environment that encourages innovation and protects intellectual property. The goal is to make the domestic environment more attractive than the diaspora for the continent’s best minds.

6. Assertive, Strategic Engagement in Global Affairs
African leadership must shed any vestiges of a supplicant mentality and adopt a posture of strategic agency. This means actively shaping continental and global agendas:

·         Leveraging the AfCFTA: Moving beyond signing agreements to actively dismantling non-tariff barriers, harmonizing standards, and investing in cross-border infrastructure to turn the agreement into a real engine of intra-African trade and industrialization.

·         Diplomacy for Value Creation: Foreign policy should be strategically deployed to attract sustainable foreign direct investment, secure technology transfer agreements, and build partnerships based on mutual benefit, not aid dependency.

·         Advocacy for Structural Reform: African leaders must collectively and persistently advocate for reforms in global financial institutions and multilateral forums to ensure a more equitable international system.

The Nigerian Imperative: From National Challenges to a National Charter

Applying this framework to Nigeria requires translating universal principles into specific, context-driven actions:

·         Integrated Security as a Foundational Priority: Security strategy must be comprehensive, blending advanced intelligence capabilities, professionalized security forces, with parallel investments in community policing, youth employment programs in high-risk areas, and accelerated development to address the root causes of instability.

·         A Determined Pursuit of Economic Complexity: Leadership must orchestrate a decisive shift from rent-seeking in the oil sector to value creation across diversified sectors: commercialized agriculture, light and advanced manufacturing, a thriving creative industry, and a dominant digital services sector.

·         Constitutional and Governance Re-engineering: To harness its diversity, Nigeria requires a sincere national conversation on restructuring. This likely entails moving towards a more authentic federalism with greater fiscal autonomy for states, devolution of powers, and mechanisms that ensure equitable resource distribution and inclusive political representation.

·         Pioneering a Just Energy Transition: Nigeria must craft a unique energy pathway—strategically utilizing its gas resources for domestic industrialization and power generation, while simultaneously positioning itself as a regional hub for renewable energy technology, investment, and innovation.

Conclusion: A Collective Endeavor of Audacious Hope

Re-strategizing leadership in Africa and in Nigeria is not an event, but a generational process. It is not the abandonment of culture but its evolution—melding the deep African traditions of community, consensus, and elder wisdom with the modern imperatives of transparency, innovation, and individual rights. This task extends far beyond the political class. It is a summons to a new generation of leaders in every sphere: the tech entrepreneur in Yaba, the reform-minded civil servant in Abuja, the agri-preneur in Kebbi, the investigative journalist in Lagos, and the community activist in the Niger Delta.

Ultimately, this is an endeavor of audacious hope. It is the conscious choice to build systems stronger than individuals, institutions more enduring than terms of office, and a national identity richer than our ethnic sum. Nigeria possesses all the requisite raw materials for greatness: human brilliance, cultural richness, and natural bounty. The final, indispensable ingredient is a leadership strategy worthy of its people. The blueprint is now detailed; the call to action is urgent. The future awaits not our complaints, but our constructive and courageous labor. Let the work begin in earnest.

Dr. Tolulope A. Adegoke is a globally recognized scholar-practitioner and thought leader at the nexus of security, governance, and strategic leadership. His work addresses complex institutional challenges, with a specialized focus on West African security dynamics, conflict resolution, and sustainable development.

Continue Reading

Opinion

Rivers State: Two Monkeys Burn the Village to Prove They Are Loyal to Jagaban

Published

on

By

By Sly Edaghese

Teaser

Rivers State is not collapsing by accident. It is being offered as a sacrifice. Two men, driven by fear of irrelevance and hunger for protection, have chosen spectacle over stewardship—setting fire to a whole people’s future just to prove who kneels better before power.

There comes a point when a political tragedy degenerates into farce, and the farce mutates into a curse. Rivers State has crossed that point. What is unfolding there is not governance, not even conflict—it is ritual madness, a grotesque contest in which two men are willing to burn an entire state just to be noticed by one man sitting far away in Abuja.

This is not ambition.

This is desperation wearing designer jacket.

At the center of this inferno stand two performers who have mistaken power for immortality and loyalty for slavery. One is a former god. The other is a former servant. Both are now reduced to naked dancers in a marketplace, grinding their teeth and tearing flesh to entertain Jagaban.

The first is Nyesom Wike—once feared, once untouchable, now frantic. A man whose political identity has collapsed into noise, threats, and recycled bravado. His ministerial appointment was never a validation of statesmanship; it was a severance package for betrayal. Tinubu did not elevate Wike because he admired him—he tolerated him because he was useful. And usefulness, in politics, is key, but it has an expiry date.

Wike governed Rivers State not as a public trust but as a private estate. He did not build institutions; he built dependencies. He did not groom leaders; he bred loyalists. Before leaving office, he salted the land with his men—lawmakers, commissioners, council chairmen—so that even in absence, Rivers State would still answer to his shadow. His obsession was simple and sick: if I cannot rule it, no one else must.

Enter Siminalayi Fubara—a man selected, not tested; installed, not trusted by the people but trusted by his maker. Fubara was meant to be an invisible power in a visible office—a breathing signature, a ceremonial governor whose only real duty was obedience.

But power has a way of awakening even the most timid occupant.

Fubara wanted to act like a governor. That single desire triggered a full-scale political assassination attempt—not with bullets, but with institutions twisted into weapons. A state of emergency was declared with obscene haste. The governor was suspended like a naughty schoolboy. His budget was butchered. His local government elections were annulled and replaced with a pre-arranged outcome favorable to his tormentor. Lawmakers who defected and lost their seats by constitutional law were resurrected like political zombies and crowned legitimate.

This was not law.

This was organized humiliation.

And when degradation alone failed, Wike went further—dragging Fubara into a room to sign an agreement that belonged more to a slave plantation than a democratic republic.

One clause alone exposed the rot:
👉 Fubara must never seek a second term.

In plain language: you may warm the chair, but you will never own it.

Then came the most revealing act of all—Wike leaked the agreement himself. A man so intoxicated by dominance that he thought publicizing oppression would strengthen his grip.

That leak was not strategy; it was confession. It told Nigerians that this was never about peace, order, or party discipline—it was about absolute control over another human being.

But history has a cruel sense of humor.

While Wike strutted like a victorious warlord and his loyal lawmakers sharpened new knives, Fubara did something dangerous: he adapted. He studied power where it truly resides. He learned Tinubu’s language—the language of survival, alignment, and betrayal without apology. Then he did what Nigerian politics rewards most:

He crossed over.

Not quietly. Not shamefully. But theatrically. He defected to the APC, raised a party card numbered 001 and crowned himself leader of the party in Rivers State. He pledged to deliver the same Rivers people to Tinubu just as Wike also has pledged.

That moment was not boldness.

It was cold-blooded realism.

And in one stroke, Wike’s myth collapsed.

The once-feared enforcer became a shouting relic—touring local governments like a prophet nobody believes anymore, issuing warnings that land on deaf ears, reminding Nigerians of favors that no longer matter. He threatened APC officials, cursed betrayal, and swore eternal vengeance. But vengeance without access is just noise.

Today, the humiliation is complete.

Fubara enters rooms Wike waits outside.

Presidential aides shake hands with the new alignment.

The old king rants in press conferences, sounding increasingly like a man arguing with a locked door.

And yet, the darkest truth remains: neither of these men cares about Rivers State.

One is fighting to remain relevant.

The other is fighting to remain protected.

The people—the markets, the schools, the roads, the civil servants—are expendable extras in a drama scripted far above their heads.

Some say Tinubu designed this blood sport—unable to discard Wike outright, he simply unleashed his creation against him. Whether genius or negligence, the effect is the same: Rivers State is being eaten alive by ambition.

This is what happens when politics loses shame.

This is what happens when loyalty replaces competence.

This is what happens when leaders treat states like bargaining chips and citizens like ashes.

Two monkeys are burning the village—not to save it, not to rule it—but to prove who can scream loudest while it burns.

And Jagaban watches, hands folded.

But when the fire dies down, when the music stops, when the applause fades, there will be nothing left to govern—only ruins, regret, and two exhausted dancers staring at the ashes, finally realizing that power does not clap forever.

Sly Edaghese sent in this piece from Wisconsin, USA.

Continue Reading

Opinion

What Will Be the End of Wike?

Published

on

By

By Pelumi Olajengbesi Esq.

Every student of politics should now be interested in what will be the end of Wike. Wike is one of those names that mean different things to different people within Nigeria’s political culture. To his admirers, he is courage and capacity, to his critics, he is disruption and excess, and to neutral observers like me, he is simply a fascinating case study in the mechanics of power.

In many ways, he was instrumental to the emergence of President Tinubu, and he has long sat like a lord over the politics of Rivers, having pushed aside nearly every person who once mattered in that space. He waged war against his party, the PDP, and drove it to the edge. Wike waged war against his successor and reduced him to submission. He fights anyone who stands in his way.

He is powerful, loved by many, and deeply irritating to many others. Yet for all his strength, one suspects that Wike does not enjoy peace of mind, because before he is done with one fight, another fight is already forming. From Rivers to Ibadan, Abuja to Imo, and across the country, he is the only right man in his own way. He is constantly in motion, constantly in battle, and constantly singing “agreement is agreement,” while forgetting that politics is merely negotiation and renegotiation.

To his credit, Wike may often be the smartest political planner in every room. He reads everybody’s next move and still creates a countermove. In that self image, Governor Fubara was meant to remain on a leash, manageable through pressure, inducement, and the suggestion that any disobedience would be framed as betrayal of the President and the new federal order.

But politics has a way of punishing anyone who believes control is permanent. The moment Fubara joined the APC, the battlefield shifted, and old tricks began to lose their edge. Whether by real alignment, perceived alignment, or even the mere possibility of a different alignment, once Fubara was no longer boxed into the corner Wike designed for him, Wike’s entire method required review. The fight may remain, but the terrain has changed. When terrain changes, power must either adapt or harden into miscalculation.

It is within this context that the gradually brewing crisis deserves careful attention, because what is emerging is not merely another loud exchange, but a visible clash with vital stakeholders within the Tinubu government and the wider ruling party environment. There is now a fixed showdown with the APC National Secretary, a man who is himself not allergic to confrontation, and who understands that a fight, if properly timed, can yield political advantage, institutional relevance, and bargaining power. When such a figure publicly demands that Nyesom Wike should resign as a minister in Tinubu’s cabinet, it is not a joke, It is about who is permitted to exercise influence, in what space, and on what terms. It is also about the anxiety that follows every coalition built on convenience rather than shared identity, because convenience has no constitution and gratitude is not a structure.

Wike embodies that anxiety in its most dramatic form. He is a man inside government, but not fully inside the party that controls government. He is a man whose usefulness to a winning project is undeniable, yet whose political style constantly reminds the winners that he is not naturally theirs. In every ruling party, there is a crucial difference between allies and stakeholders. Allies help you win, and stakeholders own the structure that decides who gets what after victory. Wike’s problem is that he has operated like both. His support for Tinubu, and his capacity to complicate the opposition’s arithmetic, gave him relevance at the centre. That relevance always tempts a man to behave like a co-owner.

Wike has built his political life on the logic of territorial command. He defines the space, polices the gate, punishes disloyalty, rewards submission, and keeps opponents permanently uncertain. That method is brutally effective when a man truly owns and controls the structure, because it produces fear, and fear produces compliance. This is why Wike insists on controlling the Rivers equation, even when that insistence conflicts with the preferences of the national centre.

The APC leadership is not reacting only to words. It is reacting to what the words represent. When a minister speaks as though a state chapter of the ruling party should be treated like a guest in that state’s politics, the party reads it as an attempt to subordinate its internal structure to an external will. Even where the party has tolerated Wike because of what he helped deliver, it cannot tolerate a situation where its own officials begin to look over their shoulders for permission from a man who is not formally one of them. Once a party believes its chain of command is being bypassed, it will choose institutional survival over interpersonal loyalty every time.

Wike’s predicament is the classic risk of power without full institutional belonging. Informal influence can be louder than formal power, but it is also more fragile because it depends on continuous tolerance from those who control formal instruments. These instruments include party hierarchy, candidate selection, and the legitimacy that comes with membership.

An outsider ally can be celebrated while he is useful, but the coalition that celebrates him can begin to step away the moment his methods create more cost than value. The cost is not only electoral, it can also be organisational. A ruling party approaching the next political cycle becomes sensitive to discipline, structure, and coherence. If the leadership suspects that one person’s shadow is creating factions, confusing loyalties, or humiliating party officials, it will attempt to cut that shadow down. It may not do so because it hates the person, but because it fears the disorder and the precedent.

So the question returns with greater urgency, what will be the end of Wike? If it comes, it may not come with fireworks. Strongmen often do not fall through one decisive attack. They are slowly redesigned out of relevance. The end can look like isolation, with quiet withdrawal of access, gradual loss of influence over appointments, and the emergence of new centres of power within the same territory he once treated as private estate. It can look like neutralisation, with Wike remaining in office, but watching the political value of the office drain because the presidency and the party no longer need his battles. It can look like forced realignment, with him compelled to fully submit to the ruling party structure, sacrificing the freedom of being an independent ally, or losing the cover that federal power provides.

Yet it is also possible that his story does not end in collapse, because Wike is not a novice. The same instinct that made him influential can also help him survive if he adapts. But adaptation would require a difficult shift. It would require a move from territorial warfare to coalition management. It would require a move from ruling by fear to ruling by accommodation. It would require a move from being merely feared to being structurally useful without becoming structurally threatening. Wike may be running out of time.

Pelumi Olajengbesi is a Legal Practitioner and Senior Partner at Law Corridor

Continue Reading

Go back

Your message has been sent

Warning
Warning
Warning
Warning

Trending