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Pendulum: Can Atiku Abubakar Defeat Muhammadu Buhari in 2019?

Published

6 years ago

October 13, 2018

Eric

By Dele Momodu

Fellow Nigerians, interesting times are here again. And the ways of God are mysterious indeed. This time last week, no one was sure who would ultimately emerge as the quintessential leader of opposition for the general elections in our dear beloved country which comes up in February next year. There were about 12 assorted gladiators lined up and seeking the Presidential ticket of PDP, which truly needs to redeem itself urgently from the vestiges of near death. For the most part, its national convention in Port Harcourt went smoothly. Even its worst critics attest to the fact that it was effectively well organised and set the right tone for the regeneration of the democratic credentials of the Party. What was more remarkable, a candidate emerged without rancour or the usual bickering that attends such highly contentious contests. Virtually all the other aspirants immediately aligned with their chosen candidate, former Vice President of Nigeria, the Wazirin Adamawa, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar.

Since then, both traditional and social media have ignited with blazing fire with both positive and negative comments about the outcome. Atiku himself wasted no time in seeking the support of everyone, whether members of his Party or not. He’s smart and knowledgeable to know that he will need more than votes of the Party faithful alone to win the stiff electoral battle ahead. As he emphasised in my two previous interviews with him in the last couple of months, he has redeemed his pledge to pick a Vice Presidential candidate from the South East of Nigeria, a move many Nigerians have applauded, and embraced, as a masterstroke. The choice of former Governor Peter Obi of Anambra State is seen by some analysts as the first step towards the restructuring Atiku and company have been mouthing from the rooftops in recent times. Apart from this, Peter Obi is seen by many as a seasoned technocrat and astute businessman with credible and capable government experience and service. The Igbos have rightly complained that they have had neither the Presidential or Vice-Presidential slot since 1983, some 35 years ago, when Dr Alex Ekwueme, of blessed memory, was President Shehu Shagari’s deputy. Buhari has an equally formidable person, who also boasts intimidating credentials and capabilities, as his Vice-President in Professor Yemi Osinbajo.

Obi comes with an array of impressive academic, business and political credentials and achievements. He is a Philosophy graduate from the University of Nsukka. He has improved and enhanced himself with academic and practical studies at Harvard Business School, London School of Economics, Kellogg School of Management, University of Columbia, Said Business School, Oxford University, George Business School, Cambridge University and Lagos Business School. These have sharpened his entrepreneurial, management and leadership skills which he clearly utilised in the 8 years that he was Governor of Anambra State between 2006 and 2014. Peter Obi is a recipient of many national and international awards notably the Melinda and Bill Gates Foundation Award for which his State won US$1 million for its immunisation programme. He created an enabling environment for industrial development in Anambra State which saw the likes of SABMiller, the 2nd largest brewery in the world establishing their first Greenfield facility in Anambra State. Similarly, Innoson Motors established their internationally acclaimed plant where they manufacture their made in Nigeria vehicles. Obi adds unquantifiable value to the Atiku candidacy in much the same way as Vice President Osinbajo has done for President Buhari. The battle of the Vice-Presidential candidates may well be the tipping point of these forthcoming elections. We will revisit the contest between this highly esteemed and acclaimed gentlemen soon.

The battle for the control of Nigeria’s jugular in 2019 is all set and looks like a straight fight between Buhari/Osinbajo and Abubakar/Obi, except a miracle, or some magic, erupts and one of the fringe candidates pulls a monumental surprise by defeating both teams in what must be close to a volcanic eruption in Nigeria. I personally do not see that happening.

The battle will be tough because old rivalries will also come into play. Buhari needs to prove and revalidate his seeming invincibility which seems to be waning if my reading of the pulse of public opinion is accurate. As the incumbent, Buhari controls the appurtenances of power. His ego is at stake. Like former President Olusegun Obasanjo, Buhari came back to power as a retired army General and former military Head of State. Obasanjo was able to complete two terms and Buhari would definitely wish to equal that feat even if he can’t surpass it because of constitutional limitations. Buhari is not known to be a self-acclaimed democrat. The aspect of his brand that has brought him this far is his no-nonsense posturing. A man who would destroy and obliterate all looters and oppressors, by any means possible, if allowed to have his way. This has endeared him to a multitude of totally loyal die-hard supporters. His disciples swear by his name and they are willing to fly to heaven and back to prove their ardent fervour and love for him.

Buhari comes into the boxing ring with a daunting personality and attributes. He is tall and gangling, even if seemingly frail, but his punches are capable of deadly effect. Unlike Obasanjo or Atiku, many have said this President is not going to bow to any public opinion and go away without a whimper. Fingers are being pointed at the recent over-militarisation of the democratic process and suspected manipulation of the electoral body, INEC. Whether imaginary or not, or imagination just running riot, no one can easily dismiss certain unseemly electoral practices and possibilities in next year’s elections. We hope that the desperation to remain in power will not go as far as besmirching the view of how far our democracy has been deepened by the fact of President Goodluck Jonathan, accepting the will of the people, and handing over power to President Buhari without any fuss.

TheBuhari government won’t accept the tag of incompetence many have affixed to it. They have already compiled a long list of their projects and accomplishments. They have argued that government is a continuum and they are fixing incomplete projects abandoned by its predecessors. Good point. They are correcting the rot of nearly two decades. While they may appear slow, and sluggish, to those of us on the outside, they are insisting they have had to be methodical and painstaking in their work. Perhaps, they are right, we are not sure.

FromAtiku’s side, he comes with an effervescent, ever smiling easy going demeanour and personality. He is renowned for his great flexibility and negotiation skills, a shrewd manager of men and women and resources. However, when required he is known to possess a steely resolve necessary to head a country like Nigeria. Atiku comes with a controversial and colourful past though, not least because of the unrelenting assault and pummelling about his character that he had been subjected to by his former boss, President Olusegun Obasanjo. This is veritable easy meat and fodder for APC to deploy in rubbishing his candidacy and demonstrating his unfitness to be President of this great nation.

We should expect Atiku and his campaign team to go all out on the offensive and try to debunk all the criticisms, arguments and jibes that APC will propel at him. The harsh disparaging and denigrating diatribe as well as the strident blame game the Buhari government has perfected will have to be met head on by Atiku and his forces. It will not be easy as so much damage has been done to Atiku in the past by the perception of him as an unreliable corrupt politician. On his part Atiku can point to the fact that notwithstanding all the many allegations made against him, nobody has yet been made to make any stick. He has consistently maintained his innocence and dared anyone to prove otherwise. Nobody has called his bluff, if bluff it is! Indeed, he has pointedly referred to the claimed American albatross hanging over his head like a sword of Damocles, that it is but a mere figment of imagination of his inept traducers. As Atiku says, he has never been charged or indicted for any offence either in Nigeria or elsewhere. the American Government has never declared him wanted. He has applied for an American visa on a few occasions, but this has not been granted. If indeed he was wanted in America, surely his visa would have been granted to enable him visit and be arrested. The American Government has never denied either of these claims. On the contrary, that Government has also stated that Atiku is not wanted. In my view, that should put an end to the matter.

The Buhari Presidency is not without its shortcomings and negatives. I expect the Atiku campaign to focus heavily on those areas where the Nigerian public have been most critical of the Buhari administration. They will undoubtedly point at the precarious economic condition of Nigerians and Nigeria and blame Buhari for creating panic in the system. On this aspect, Buhari obviously relies on the fact that oil prices dipped violently when he assumed power, but nonetheless his Government has grown foreign reserves to US$44 million and maintained the Naira at a steady level in the past year. Critics of this position point to the fact that oil prices have now increased to a level not contemplated by the Government, which has increased borrowing to an unprecedented level and appears to have heavily mortgaged Nigeria to the Chinese through the exceptionally and dangerously ominous high level of borrowing from that country. The Government has also revived and revitalised transportation through its resuscitation of the road and rail networks. The opposition PDP has always claimed that Government is a continuum, and it was PDP that conceived, started and almost completed these projects, none of which this administration could claim to have commenced itself. Atiku and his team will also enjoy castigating the Buhari government as being overly dependent on taxing business and ordinary Nigerians to death. Atiku will also naturally present, and sell, himself as a successful businessman and try to portray Buhari as a novice who lacks business acumen and therefore is not business friendly. Atiku will contend that Buhari has never had a head, or acumen, for business which accounts for why Nigeria is on the verge of an economic precipice even as the dark shadows that loomed globally at the beginning of his tenure have lifted considerably and there should have been prosperity in the land. Atiku says he has a well-structured economic blueprint, whilst the government is presently adopting and applying a slapdash and inimical approach to the economy.

Furthermore, the Atiku camp will exploit the heightened insecurity in the country especially by the infamous herdsmen which the government appears to be treating glibly. They will also point to the apparent resurgence of the Boko Haram insurgency despite what the Buhari administration will claim are the valiant efforts of our security forces. The agitation by IPOB and its followers continues relentlessly. The manner in which the Government has handled the situation is something that the opposition Party is expected to capitalise upon.

WhileBuhari would tout his anti-corruption pedigree, Atiku would lampoon it as nothing but grandstanding and at the very best a witch-hunt of the opposition Party. Atiku will contend that most of those who have defected to the ruling Party have had grave allegations of corruption levelled against them in the past, but these have mysteriously disappeared as soon as they jumped shipped and landed with the ruling Party. In addition, I can foresee the opposition claiming that almost all of the so-called achievements of the Buhari Government in relation to corruption originated from the Jonathan administration and that within the highest level of government corruption is rife and thriving and being studiously overlooked by the President because they concern his friends and cronies. The ding-dong claims and counter-claims will dovetail into other areas and continue unabated until well after the general elections.

The most critical area would be how to get the numbers together to win. Buhari will come in with anything between 10 million to 12 million guaranteed votes, as always. Most of those votes would come from North West and North East. For whatever reason, I believe that more people will be stated to have voted in this election than in 2015. In my estimation the victor will need to garner at least 18 million votes for success. What is not certain is if North East would abandon its own son now that it has the brightest chance since Tafawa Balewa from Bauchi became Prime Minister in the First republic. PDP will play its traditional joker from the South East and South South axis. Buhari and Atiku require humongous votes from about four out of six regions. Buhari would target North East, North West, North Central and South West while Atiku will target North East (as his home base), North Central (as an endangered zone supposedly mismanaged by the APC Government), South East, South South and enough of a chunk from South West. Let no one rule Atiku out of those five zones, in the present mood across the country. If Atiku gallops away, continuously, as it seems at the moment, he might obliterate Buhari in a devastating defeat.

As tough as it may seem, after running for a record 25 years, perhaps this may be Atiku’s date with destiny and his final battle.

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There’s Ongoing Cold War Between Dangote and Tinubu Govt, Dele Momodu Reveals

Published

1 day ago

July 25, 2024

Eric

By Eric Elezuo

Veteran journalist and Publisher of Ovation Magazine, Aare Dele Momodu, has revealed that there is a cold war presently going on between richest man in Africa and the President Bola Tinubu-led Federal Government of Nigeria.

Momodu made the revelation while answer questions as a guest on News Central Television on Thursday.

He said: “I am not an expert in petroleum, but I am an expert in conspiracy theory, and I believe that there’s an ongoing cold war between Aliko Dangote and the Tinubu government; that one I’m very convinced about.

“It’s unfortunate that we get personal in Africa, especially in Nigeria, and they are getting personal with him. If he was in their good books, it wouldn’t matter whether what they are saying is true or not. And it’s very dangerous for a government to be vindictive; very dangerous. Because right now, I cannot how investors, whether foreign or local would want to invest in Nigeria.

“In fact, with what Aliko said, that has really damaged our investment opportunities; that people warned him against investing in Nigeria.”

Recall that in the past few weeks, the Federal Government agencies including the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) and the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) have been having a running battle with the Dangote Refinery with the FG claiming that the refinery is not licenced and its products are less than standard.

On his part, Dangote has reiterated, accusing some officials of the NNPCL of owning blending refineries in other countries just as he revealed a hitherto unknown fact that NNPCL owns only 7.2% of Dangote Refinery as against the popularly pronounced figure of 20%.

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Nationwide Protest May Lead to Anarchy, FG Warns

Published

2 days ago

July 25, 2024

Eric

The Federal Government has warned that there would be dire consequences for the stability of the country if a nationwide protest being planned by some Nigerians goes ahead from the beginning of next month.

Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Senator George Akume, met with ministers in his office behind closed doors to try to avert the protest.

But Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), yesterday, dismissed reports that it was withdrawing from the proposed national protest by some citizens over the harsh economic situation in the country, saying it cannot be part of an idea that did not emanate from it.

South-east Governors’ Forum also distanced itself from the planned nationwide protests, citing concerns about the fragile political environment and potential hijack by criminal elements.

At the same time, some stakeholders, including some northern groups, opposed the idea of protest in the wake of harsh economic conditions. Instead, they recommended an engagement with the federal government.

But the leadership of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which supported the protest, said it was a constitutional right of the people.

In a similar vein, Minority Caucus of the House of Representatives urged the federal government to dialogue with planned protesters with a view to addressing their concerns.

Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammad Idris, issued the warning against the protest yesterday, when he received members of the Charismatic Bishops Conference, led by Archbishop (Professor) Leonard Kawas, who were on a courtesy visit to him, at his office in Abuja.

Idris said government was cautious and bothered about the protest against economic hardship, having seen the debilitating consequences of similar protests in other parts of the world, particularly in Kenya and Bangladesh.

The minister voiced concern that arsonists and criminals might be waiting to hijack the planned protest and unleash violence on innocent Nigerians.

Idris stated, “Why everybody is very cautious and very weary of this national protest is because we have seen what has happened around the world.

“We know that it’s almost impossible to hold this protest and then have peace at the end of the day. We cannot do that because some people are waiting to take the laws into their own hands.”

He said while the government of President Bola Tinubu acknowledged the right of every Nigerian to engage in protests, it was equally committed to ensuring that the activities did not disrupt public order or violate the rights of others.

According to him, “You see, the government of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu believes in the freedom of everyone within the confirms of the law to do what he thinks is right for him.

“Therefore, the president is not an opponent of protest of any kind. But the president is an opponent of violence and anything that will hamper the wellbeing of Nigerians.

“He believes and he has always been saying that within the tenets of democracy, you have every right to do whatever you want to do provided that right does not infringe on another person’s right.”

Idris asserted that Tinubu was fully aware of the feelings of Nigerians across the country and he was actively working to implement effective policies aimed at alleviating the challenges faced by the citizenry and bringing relief to all Nigerians.

The minister said one of the policies being fine-tuned by government was to begin to pay stipends to all young university and polytechnics graduates after the National Youth Service Corps (NYSC) scheme, pending their formal employment.

He stated, “But beyond that, there is also another new policy that the president has formulated, which will begin to be seen very soon, and that is that all young men and women who have finished universities and polytechnics and have certificates and have done their mandatory NYSC, and have not been able to get jobs, will have something from the government to keep them afloat until the time they get jobs.”

He described the introduction of the Compressed National Gas (CNG) policy by the president as a game changer in the country’s economy because of its ability to bring down the cost of transportation by about 60 per cent, thereby providing a viable alternative to petrol and diesel.

Idris said, henceforth, any government procurement of vehicles or machinery must have a component of CNG embedded in the contracts.

Earlier, President General of the Charismatic Bishops Conference, dissociated the conference from the planned national protest, saying they have been inundated with calls by some groups to join the protest.

Kawas said, “Recently we received some calls from some other religious organisations and other organisations asking us to join in preparation for a nationwide protest, which would start from 1st August 2024.

“We are here to let you know that we do not think the same. That we have rather decided to go all out and call for a truce. We have decided to sue for peace and humbly request that our brothers and sisters, who are aggrieved in one way or the other, that they should give us some time while we continue to communicate and negotiate with this government on areas that are pertinent to them.”

He appealed to aggrieved Nigerians in all parts of the country to give peace a chance and toe the path of dialogue and negotiation because no reasonable government will fold its hands and allow violence to break down the country.

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Our Products Are Not Sub-Substandard, Dangote Fights Back

Published

5 days ago

July 21, 2024

Eric

By Eric Elezuo

Steadfast and never-say-never entrepreneur, who doubles as Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, has refuted various claims against his petroleum refinery and general enterprise bordering on inferiority and monopolistic tendencies.

The President of Dangote Industries Limited emphatically rejected claims by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Agency (NMDPRA) that petroleum products from his refinery are substandard, in addition to the accusation that the company seeks to monopolize trade, especially in the oil sector.

Dangote rejected the allegations on Saturday when the leadership of the House of Representatives visited and toured the refinery located at the Lekki Free Trade Zone in Lagos.

Speaker Tajudeen Abbas and his deputy Benjamin Kalu led the delegation from the House which included Hon Ikenga Ugochinyere.

To back his position, Dangote and his team tested diesel bought from two filling stations and that from his refinery at the refinery’s laboratories.

The tested diesel from other stations was bought in the presence of the lawmakers, while that from the Dangote Refinery was taken from production also in the presence of the lawmakers.

Two tests were conducted; a test of the sulphur level and a flash test. While all crude-based products contain some level of sulphur, high sulphur levels cause damage to engines and vehicle components.

The flash point refers to the lowest temperature at which the application of the ignition source causes the vapours above the liquid to ignite with the minimum expected flash point at 66.

The results showed that the sulphur content in the diesel from other stations was above 2,631 and 1,829; much higher than the recommended level while the tests for the flash point showed results of 26 and 63 respectively for the diesel from other stations. Both results fell short of the recommended minimum of 66.

The results for the diesel from Dangote turned out to be 87.6 ppm for sulphur and 96 flashpoints.

For Dangote, the result does not only show the reality of products from his refinery, but it also shows that substandard petroleum products are being imported into the country and sold to unsuspecting Nigerians.

‘Probe quality of petrol, diiesel at filling stations’

He called on the House of Representatives to investigate the quality of diesel and petrol at filling stations.

To carry out the investigation, he urged the House to set up a committee to test products at various filling stations across the country.

Decrying the damage being done to vehicles and engines by substandard products, also called on the House to investigate the quality of laboratories being used to test imported products and compare that with the one at the Dangote Refinery.

‘Monopoly Claim Untrue’

Dangote also said the claim in some quarters that his group of companies enjoy monopoly is not true.

“If you look at all our operations at Dangote (Group), we add value; we take local raw materials and turn them into products, and we sell.

“We have never consciously or unconsciously stop anybody from doing the same business that we are doing.

“When we first came into cement production, it was only Lafarge that was operating here in Nigeria…Nobody ever called Lafarge a monopoly,” he said, adding that labelling his group of companies as monopolistic is disheartening.

“Monopoly is when you stop people, you block them through legal means. No, it is a level playing field whereby whatever Dangote was given in cement, for example, other people were given because some of them even got more than us.”

‘No Single Incentive From FG’
The billionaire business tycoon said his refinery did not enjoy any incentive from the Federal Government.

“In the refinery, we did not, and I repeat, we did not collect one single incentive from the Federal Government of Nigeria or even Lagos State. Yes, the Lagos State gave us a good deal but we paid $100m for the land. It wasn’t a free land; we paid for it,” he said.

“Majority of the population are with us. So, we are not discouraged, we will continue what we are doing.”

Addressing the speaker, he said, “The most important thing, your excellency, is to note that the imported one they are encouraging, is the spec in test, but in certain cases when you check (independently), different results will show.”

This, he said, is “because those people who have the lab have been told what to write.”

He said the best way to determine the quality of products being imported and sold to Nigerians is by going to the filling stations, buying and testing them.

Speaker Abbas said going by the presentation and the contradictory claims, there was a need for an investigation.

“I don’t know how we have this contradiction of two players representing the public and private sector,” he said.

“I think it is something we need to investigate further to find out if there are ulterior motives.”

It will be recalled that during the week, a Federal Government of Nigeria petroleum regulatory agency, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority, (NMDPRA), dismissed petroleum products from the Dangote Refinery as inferior, making a case for superiority of imported ones.

The revelation was made by the Chief Executive Officer of NMDPRA, Mr. Farouk Ahmed, while responding to questions from a section of the press, a video of which was trending online, adding that the refinery is only 45% completed, and yet to be licenced for operation by the Nigerian government.

In the short video, which lasted a little over a minute, Mr. Ahmed debunked theories attached to the functionality of the Dangote Refinery, saying it does not have the capacity to ‘feed’ the nation of its petroleum needs, as it stands. He however, refuted arguments that some elements within the oil and gas sector were trying to scuttle the Dangote Refinery.

A transcript of the NMDPRA’s boss short response is as follows:

“It about concerns of supply of petroleum products acros the nationwide, and the claim that we are trying to scuttle Dangote. That is not so. Dangote Refinery is still in the pre-commissioning stage. It has not been licenced yet. We haven’t licenced them yet. I think they are about 45 per cent completed, or completion rather.

“We cannot rely on one refinery to feed the nation, because Dangote is requesting that we suspend or stop imports, especially of AGO and DPK, and direct all marketers to his refinery. That is not good for the nation in terms of energy security, and it is not good for the market because of the monopoly.

“Dangote Refinery, as well as some modular refineries like Watersmith Refinery and Aradel Refinery, are producing between 650 and 1,200 PPM. Therefore, in terms of quality, their products are inferior to imported ones,” he stated.

It will be recalled that only last week, the President, Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, while hosting senior journalists from across various media concerns, revealed that the Nigeria National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) owns only 7.2% of stakes in the refinery, and not 20 percent as widely circulated. He also revealed that the refinery is set to begin fuel supply in August 2024.

Many stakeholders and respondents have alleged that there’s no love lost between the government of the day and the Dangote Group, and that explains the hiccup situation surrounding the takeoff the $19 billion refinery.

Dangote has been fighting a battle of his life since the establishment of his refinery; from OICs, IPMAN and other concerns, posing the question, who’s afraid of Dangote?