Headline

Pendulum: Do These Guys Understand Simple Arithmetic at All?

Published

7 years ago

July 21, 2018

Eric

By Dele Momodu

Fellow Nigerians, permit me to say how flattered I was when the man of God, Pastor Tunde Bakare of the Latter Rain Assembly, described me as one of the pen prophets in Nigeria and included humble me amongst the columnists he reads regularly. I can’t thank him enough for the extra-special lengths he went to make my book launch a huge success. To whom much is given, much is certainly expected. To qualify to be a prophet means most if not all my prophecies must be as accurate as possible. This is the main reason I have decided to project into the future again, and once more tell our President the truth cronies will never tell him and his kitchen cabinet.

It is obvious that the ruling party is now enmeshed in a peculiar mess (apologies to the great young Ibadan politician of old, Adegoke Adelabu of Penkelemesi fame), almost far worse than what happened under the government of President Goodluck Jonathan. What that means is that if elections were held today, the figures wouldn’t add up for Mr President in particular. I will try to explain this simple unpalatable fact, but unacceptable reality nonetheless, in a short moment. What I’m trying to say without any equivocation or doubt or fear of contradiction is that President Muhammadu Buhari should not take it for granted that he would easily coast home to victory like he did in 2015, bearing in mind that his margin of victory was the smallest since the Fourth Republic began in 1999.

In the days of President Jonathan in power, you needed some knowledge of Additional Mathematics combined with Algebra to unravel the political permutations but not anymore. Today, your knowledge need not go beyond elementary Arithmetic. Any discerning mind can see very clearly that the present ruling party APC is already in disarray and being held precariously together by a thin thread of government patronage and fear of almighty EFCC amid the nebulous concept of probity and anti-corruption that the government has been bandying about. God knows that as we inch closer and closer to the next general elections, the President would see giant monsters jumping out of the closets that he felt were very empty and squeaky clean. By then it might be too late to salvage the situation because he is likely to have become a veritable lame duck with very few willing to do is bidding because they think he is on his way out.

It is incredible how man, as mere mortal, often forgets the past so soon. No one needs to travel too far to discover the danger lurking around the corner for the President and his ruling party. But it seems everyman likes to believe whatever lies he is told by those who should, ordinarily, be his guardian angels. I have had the chance of speaking directly to a few of the principal actors and forewarned them about the tragedy to come but I’m not sure the falcon is listening to the falconer.If it is, we are having a hard time and difficult job hearing what is being said!

If you’re on social media, you’ll feel very sorry for our dear beloved country. The war between, and inside, the different political parties is unbelievable. While the leaders meet regularly, the gba-ran-mi-delerus (busybodies) are abusing themselves slavishly, foolishly and without decorum. Everyone they disagree with is a looter, a corrupt man, a wailer and a hater – Lord-have-mercy on poor souls. What the fanatical supporters of this government fail to realise is that it is becoming almost an impossibility for the Federal Government to lock down four out of our six regions that it needs to if it must retain the Presidency. Even at the height of his popularity, Baba couldn’t win elections three consecutive times before the 2015 elections. Not much has changed from the political realities of that period. The ‘Change’ factor of 2015, which saw the amalgamation and consolidation of diverse strange bed-fellows has long since shown its true colours as merely a house of wafer thin pack of cards! It is remarkable that the grand alliance many saw as the pathway to a bright and glorious future has been blown away without even a tempest or typhoon.The sad truth is that there is virtually no region today where APC is not embattled, in some regions, it even appears as if it is in its death throes.

The arguments of many APC die-hards include the fact that APC won the controversial gubernatorial election in Ekiti State. While I congratulate my dear friend, Dr Kayode Fayemi, on his hard won and well-deserved victory, given his qualifications, capabilities and antecedents, APC should not assume it would easily replicate the same feat at the Federal level and at a general election. Any discerning mind would have known that the Federal might would play a critical role in the Ekiti State election. When I predicted the outcome of that election and how the scenario would play out, one young man working for Governor Peter Fayose rained venom and invectives on me like a rabid dog. Today the barking man has not uttered as much as a whimper. Such is the debilitating power of defeat.

Let me now explain why it may not be so easy for President Buhari to play the Ekiti game nationally. It was said that about 30,000 police officers were drafted to maintain law and order in Ekiti State at the just concluded elections. I leave, for another day, the issues surrounding raging questions about how and where the government found the funding, capacity and willingness to deploy such humongous human and material security forces and equipment to a small State like Ekiti State in the wake of the ravaging Boko Haram menace, the rampaging herdsmen and the riotous militants. One would have thought that a nation afflicted with the security nightmare that insurgency, militancy and terrorism presents would not deem fit to deploy such military and police might for electioneering purposes when these terrible scourges are consuming the land.I suppose, the government considers winning elections and staying in power as much more important than the lives and security of the people they swore to protect when they assumed office. Whatever the reason, we saw what must be the largest possible example of the militarisation of a State since independence. That really is the point.Can this be sustained at the Federal level for the upcoming Presidential and gubernatorial elections? I doubt it. I give my reasons below.

The entire work force of the Nigerian Police is not more than about 300,000 personnel. With 30,000 police deployed to one state alone means about 10% of the work force being deployed to that State.Ekiti is one of the smallest States in the Federation, and there are 36 States and a Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Even if only 15,000 policemen were deployed to Ekiti State and there was a desire to do this at the national level for the Presidential elections, only 20 out of 36 States and the FCT would be covered.This would leave a shortfall of 16 States. If we take the Ekiti State example and deploy 30,000 per State, only 10 States would be covered.This would also mean that for the duration, the entire police force would only be dealing with elections. Open season indeed for crooks, criminals and terrorists! To be frank the question for the young student of arithmetic is where then would the government find such number of police per State to assemble, and possibly manipulate, to achieve pre-determined goals?

Depending on who the candidate of the PDP is, I’m certain, APC will find it difficult to have its past grip on the Northern Region. Contrary to the belief that President Buhari enjoys cult-followership in the North, the reality is that this is not the case and that this aphorism cannot stand any casual scrutiny not to mention rigorous examination.The ill-concealed fact is that the President is perceived to have such a cult following because of the outcome of the 2015 Presidential elections when the President won massively in the Northern part of Nigeria.

However, the perception falls flat on its face when you examine the previous elections before 2015 critically. It is clear that the President did well in the North in those past elections, but the truth is that PDP did just as well. On a comparative basis in those previous elections, the President did a lot better this time around. What changed? As simplistic as it may sound, it was the ‘CHANGE’ mantra that made the difference.Significantly, people came together to work for President Buhari to emerge. It was not a solitary effort or lone victory!It was the victory of the people. Hitherto strong PDP enclaves suddenly saw President Buhari as the person who would bring them out of the doldrums and improve their lot. They supported him not because of what he stood for, or his person, but because they were weary and tired of the Jonathan government and its many acts of impunity, financial recklessness and brazen kleptocracy by senior government officials who did not have the welfare of the Nigerian masses at their heart.Indeed, the choice before Nigeria in 2015 was stark!It was either Jonathan or Buhari. And Nigerians did not want Jonathan much more than a case of wanting Buhari. We are at the same threshold now.

In truth, the PDP has traditionally been a Northern Party per se and it still commands substantial support in that area of the country.I keep saying that had President Jonathan been able to garner half the number of those who supported him in the North in the 2011 elections what we are saying today would not have been the story!A different reality would have been upon us.President Jonathan won in 2011 not because the North liked him personally, but because the North wanted to vote with PDP as it has been wont to do for many generations! PDP is beginning to learn its lesson and it is starting to make amends. The Party is no longer flaunting its greatly curtailed power. Its officers and Party faithfuls no longer take anything for granted.They know they must work hard to overcome the prejudices and biases of the people against them. They now appreciate that there is no certainty in politics. That realisation, which the APC appears to have had in 2015, is what the APC of 2018 now seems to be lacking. At the rate members are deserting APC in droves, it is only a matter of time before things fall apart completely.

The PDP will certainly field a Northerner to neutralise whatever might be the Buhari effect. This person would be certain to be heavily backed by other aspirants who may not get the party ticket. It is not likely that Buhari can overwhelmingly take over the North Central and North East this time around.Even in the North West, landslide victor is not assured.Every little whittling of the Buhari numbers from the 2015 elections diminishes his overall tally and makes him a sitting duck.

The promises made by APC would also be under critical scrutiny and those not kept would become subjects of public ridicule and odium. The Southern parts have become nearly no go zones, especially in the South South and South East.The South West is the only part where the President and APC may garner something a bit sizable from the Southern parts with the help of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the South West Governors. That is why Ekiti State suddenly became a do-or-die affair.The desperation was palpable, and victory had to be rammed down the throat of the electorate by all means, by hook or crook, by fire, by force! However, the use of force won’t work this time around, not least because the numbers just don’t add up and there is not enough manpower on the ground to replicate the Ekiti State debacle.

With the margin of victory in Ekiti State so slim and wafer thin, despite the massive security apparatus and personnel deployed to enforce a victory, it appears that the game is up! The numbers game may have finally caught up with the President. Something overtly drastic has to be attempted and done to turn things around positively.

Time will surely tell!

Headline

Badagry Mourns Passage of Oba Akran Amid Sobriety, Restriction of Movement

Published

1 day ago

January 13, 2026

Eric

Badagry, a historic coastal town renowned for its rich cultural heritage, was on Monday enveloped in a sombre and brooding mood following the passing of its 89-year-old monarch, De Wheno Aholu Menu-Toyi I, the Akran of Badagry.

The revered monarch, who reigned for 48 years, was a towering figure in the history and development of the ancient coastal town.

He was a journalist before ascending the throne of his forefathers on April 23, 1977.

His long reign was marked by peace, unity and steady community development across Badagry and its environs.

As Permanent Vice-Chairman of the Lagos State Council of Obas and Chiefs, his counsel and leadership carried significant influence within traditional institutions across the State.

He was widely respected as a devoted custodian of Ogu culture and tradition, as well as a passionate advocate for the welfare of his people.

From the early hours of Monday, an unusual calm descended on the ancient kingdom as residents struggled to come to terms with the loss of their traditional ruler.

Markets that normally buzz with activities witnessed low patronage, while groups of residents gathered sparsely in streets and compounds, exchanging restrained conversations.

At the Akran’s palace, it was learnt that the atmosphere was pensive as chiefs and community leaders’ showed grief.

There were restrictions on vehicular movements around the palace vicinity with some sections of the road leading to the place barricaded. Commuters were said to be directed to take alternative routes.

Sources said the traditional worshippers may have started observing rites necessitated by the demise of the monarch. Security and palace officials were seen restricting movement in the immediate vicinity.

Residents said the rites would affect social and commercial activities around the palace and may force many residents especially those working outside Badagry to return home early.

Many residents described the late Akran as a symbol of unity, stability and cultural pride for Badagry. They recalled his role in preserving the town’s customs and mediating communal disputes, while youths spoke of a monarch who encouraged peace and respect for tradition amid modern challenges.

According to the News Agency of Nigeria (NAN), some sons and daughters of the late king were at the palace, with some seen openly weeping.

A traditional chief, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the Akran passed on at about 1:30 am, but confirmation of his death was made at about 5:30 am.

“The Chairman of Badagry Local Government Area, Babatunde Hunpe, has been informed, and we hope he will relay the information to Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu for an official announcement.

“That is why many of us are seated here at the palace to receive visitors. The Akran has gone to rest with his great ancestors,” he said.

Headline

Rivers Impeachment Brouhaha: Wike, Fubara ‘Run’ Abroad to Meet Tinubu

Published

3 days ago

January 11, 2026

Eric

By Eric Elezuo

The fragile peace that sprout out in Rivers State after the six months Emergency Rule declared by President Bola Tinubu, has suddenly collapsed as the two major gladiators; the Federal Capital Territory Minister, Nyesom Wike and Rivers State governor, Siminalayi Fubara, have returned to the war front.

This is as the 26 legislators loyal to the FCT minister have initiated an impeachment proceedings against the sitting governor, Fubara, accusing him of gross misconduct roped in 8-count charges.

The lawmakers during a session on Thursday, presided over by Speaker of the House, Martin Amaewhule, are accusing Fubara and his deputy, Dr. Ngozi Oduh, of gross misconduct.

Observers have said that the day’s proceedings bear the imprimatur of renewed hostilities between Fubara and his predecessor Nyesom Wike, minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

Rrcall that onn December 5, 2025, a horde of the Rivers assembly lawmakers led by the speaker, announced their defection from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC), and days later, Fubara formalised his own switch from the PDP to the APC.

By the renewed hostilities, the two feuding personalities are seeking the support of the president, who it is believed can quench the rising tension, to either impeach the Chief Executive or survive the impeachment process.

A report monitored on Businessday Newspaper noted therfore, that President Bola Tinubu has once again intervened in the lingering political crisis between Fubara, and Wike.

According to the paper, quoting credible sources, the President summoned Wike for a crucial meeting abroad over the renewed face-off, which has reignited tensions in the oil-rich state, even as the president is still holidaying abroad.

The paper also The Punch, said a top presidential source disclosed on Saturday that the meeting is expected to be held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), where Tinubu will be heading after a brief stay in France.

“The President must see the danger in what Wike is doing. I am aware he has summoned him to a meeting in Dubai. Barring any last-minute change, they are expected to meet abroad. Wike cannot impeach Fubara; the President will call him to order,” the source said.

The source added that Wike’s recent actions constituted an affront to the President and could potentially trigger unrest in the Niger Delta.

“If you say you want to sack the first Ijaw man to be governor, are you not sending the Ijaw people back to the creeks? That will have attendant effects on the economy, and the President will not allow that to happen,” he warned.

According to reports, tension heightened on Thursday after 27 members of the Rivers State House of Assembly, loyal to Wike, initiated fresh impeachment proceedings against Governor Fubara and his deputy, Prof. Ngozi Odu.

The impeachment notice, read by Majority Leader, Major Jack, during plenary presided over by Speaker Martins Amaewhule, contained seven allegations of gross misconduct against the governor.

These include the demolition of the Assembly complex, extra-budgetary spending, and refusal to comply with a Supreme Court ruling on legislative financial autonomy.

Deputy Governor Odu was accused of “reckless and unconstitutional spending of public funds” and “obstructing the Assembly from performing its duties.”

Speaker Amaewhule described the impeachment move as “good and in the interest of Rivers State,” accusing Fubara of undermining the Assembly by failing to present the 2026 budget.

The latest move mirrors the earlier impeachment crisis that led to the declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers in March 2025.

Despite Tinubu’s earlier mediation, the fragile peace between Wike and Fubara collapsed just months after the end of the six-month emergency rule.

Wike accused Fubara of reneging on their post-truce agreements, while Fubara fired subtle jabs at his predecessor.

A senior aide to the President told reporters that Tinubu was aware of the escalating situation but declined to confirm any planned meeting with Wike.

“Only Wike or his aides can say if there is any scheduled meeting between him and the President,” the official said.

However, a senior APC official confirmed that national leaders of the party planned to meet Tinubu when he returns to Nigeria to discuss the growing discontent over Wike’s conduct.

“Some of our leaders believe Wike should have respected the President and the party because Fubara is now one of our governors,” the official said. “Even if he won’t get a second term, he should be allowed to complete his tenure.”

Meanwhile, Wike has been touring Rivers local councils, soliciting and accepting approvals from loyalists just as Fubara has asked for calm from members while they wait on the president.

Headline

Atiku Will Not Withdraw for Anyone, ADC Ticket Must Be Earned in Open Contest – Paul Ibe

Published

6 days ago

January 8, 2026

Eric

Media Adviser to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Paul Ibe, has insisted that neither Atiku nor any other aspirant in the African Democratic Congress (ADC) opposition coalition will step aside, stressing that the party’s presidential ticket must be earned through a transparent and competitive process.

Speaking in an interview with ARISE News on Wednesday, Ibe said calls for Atiku to withdraw from the race undermine democratic principles and play into what he described as the ruling All Progressives Congress’ alleged plan to weaken opposition politics.

“Inclusiveness is the essence of democracy. The ADC remains committed to an open, transparent and competitive process for choosing its flag bearer. Any call for Atiku Abubakar to step aside is a betrayal of the Nigerian people,” he said.

Ibe accused the administration of President Bola Tinubu of interfering in the internal affairs of opposition parties, alleging an agenda to impose a one-party state on Nigeria.

“The Tinubu-led administration should be focused on governance — security, the economy, the welfare of Nigerians — but instead, they are dabbling into opposition politics. That is dangerous for democracy,” he said.

He dismissed claims that Atiku dominates the ADC, describing such narratives as “mischief.”

“Atiku Abubakar is just a member of the ADC. Yes, he is a leader, a former vice president, but he is not the only leader. There are leaders across the country, and he is working with them to build party structures,” Ibe said.

According to him, the party’s current priority is grassroots mobilisation, not ticket permutations.

“Talking about who gets the ticket now is putting the cart before the horse. A house without pillars will collapse. The ADC is building structures — ward, local government, state — and that is where the focus should be.”

On speculation about possible compromises with other aspirants such as Peter Obi and Rotimi Amaechi, Ibe said no discussion has taken place regarding relinquishing the presidential ticket.

“There has been no conversation whatsoever about stepping down for anyone. Their preoccupation is building a robust alternative platform capable of giving the APC a run for its money.”

Addressing reports of alliances involving figures outside the ADC, including Rabiu Kwankwaso and former President Olusegun Obasanjo, Ibe said such talks were external to the party.

“Rabiu Kwankwaso is not a member of the ADC. Whatever discussions are happening are outside the party. But the ADC is expanding, reaching out, and more people will come on board.”

He maintained that the ADC leadership has ruled out automatic tickets, insisting the process will not be dictated by external forces.

“The party has made it clear: no automatic tickets. The outcome of the primaries will be determined by party members, not outside influence.”

Responding to questions about Atiku’s age and repeated presidential bids, Ibe rejected suggestions that the former vice president should step aside to mentor successors.

“Age has nothing to do with leadership. Atiku has mentored governors, lawmakers and public servants over the years. He is patriotic, passionate, and deeply committed to Nigeria.”

He added:

“If you analyse his blood, you will find Nigeria in it. Nobody has been more prepared to govern than Atiku Abubakar.”

Ibe also alleged that Nigeria’s last two presidential elections were rigged, arguing that Atiku’s defeats were not a reflection of public trust.

“The elections of 2019 and 2023 were rigged. This is not about trust; it is about institutions failing Nigerians.”

On fears that opposition divisions could again hand victory to the ruling party in 2027, Ibe said opposition leaders had learned from past mistakes.

“This is not about personal ambition. It is a call to national duty. Leaders understand what is at stake and have learned from 2023.”

He further alleged attempts by the ruling party to infiltrate and destabilise the ADC.

“The Tinubu camp does not want an opposition. They are funding court cases and using state resources to undermine the ADC, but the party is taking steps to ensure they fail.”

However, Ibe said some details could not be disclosed publicly.

“There are things I cannot share on camera, but the leadership and stakeholders are fully aware.”

Asked what would happen if Atiku loses the ADC primary, Ibe said his principal would accept the outcome.

“Atiku Abubakar will submit himself to the process and support whoever emerges as the presidential candidate of the ADC.”