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Pendulum: Do These Guys Understand Simple Arithmetic at All?

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By Dele Momodu
Fellow Nigerians, permit me to say how flattered I was when the man of God, Pastor Tunde Bakare of the Latter Rain Assembly, described me as one of the pen prophets in Nigeria and included humble me amongst the columnists he reads regularly. I can’t thank him enough for the extra-special lengths he went to make my book launch a huge success. To whom much is given, much is certainly expected. To qualify to be a prophet means most if not all my prophecies must be as accurate as possible. This is the main reason I have decided to project into the future again, and once more tell our President the truth cronies will never tell him and his kitchen cabinet.
It is obvious that the ruling party is now enmeshed in a peculiar mess (apologies to the great young Ibadan politician of old, Adegoke Adelabu of Penkelemesi fame), almost far worse than what happened under the government of President Goodluck Jonathan. What that means is that if elections were held today, the figures wouldn’t add up for Mr President in particular. I will try to explain this simple unpalatable fact, but unacceptable reality nonetheless, in a short moment. What I’m trying to say without any equivocation or doubt or fear of contradiction is that President Muhammadu Buhari should not take it for granted that he would easily coast home to victory like he did in 2015, bearing in mind that his margin of victory was the smallest since the Fourth Republic began in 1999.
In the days of President Jonathan in power, you needed some knowledge of Additional Mathematics combined with Algebra to unravel the political permutations but not anymore. Today, your knowledge need not go beyond elementary Arithmetic. Any discerning mind can see very clearly that the present ruling party APC is already in disarray and being held precariously together by a thin thread of government patronage and fear of almighty EFCC amid the nebulous concept of probity and anti-corruption that the government has been bandying about. God knows that as we inch closer and closer to the next general elections, the President would see giant monsters jumping out of the closets that he felt were very empty and squeaky clean. By then it might be too late to salvage the situation because he is likely to have become a veritable lame duck with very few willing to do is bidding because they think he is on his way out.
It is incredible how man, as mere mortal, often forgets the past so soon. No one needs to travel too far to discover the danger lurking around the corner for the President and his ruling party. But it seems everyman likes to believe whatever lies he is told by those who should, ordinarily, be his guardian angels. I have had the chance of speaking directly to a few of the principal actors and forewarned them about the tragedy to come but I’m not sure the falcon is listening to the falconer.If it is, we are having a hard time and difficult job hearing what is being said!
If you’re on social media, you’ll feel very sorry for our dear beloved country. The war between, and inside, the different political parties is unbelievable. While the leaders meet regularly, the gba-ran-mi-delerus (busybodies) are abusing themselves slavishly, foolishly and without decorum. Everyone they disagree with is a looter, a corrupt man, a wailer and a hater – Lord-have-mercy on poor souls. What the fanatical supporters of this government fail to realise is that it is becoming almost an impossibility for the Federal Government to lock down four out of our six regions that it needs to if it must retain the Presidency. Even at the height of his popularity, Baba couldn’t win elections three consecutive times before the 2015 elections. Not much has changed from the political realities of that period. The ‘Change’ factor of 2015, which saw the amalgamation and consolidation of diverse strange bed-fellows has long since shown its true colours as merely a house of wafer thin pack of cards! It is remarkable that the grand alliance many saw as the pathway to a bright and glorious future has been blown away without even a tempest or typhoon.The sad truth is that there is virtually no region today where APC is not embattled, in some regions, it even appears as if it is in its death throes.
The arguments of many APC die-hards include the fact that APC won the controversial gubernatorial election in Ekiti State. While I congratulate my dear friend, Dr Kayode Fayemi, on his hard won and well-deserved victory, given his qualifications, capabilities and antecedents, APC should not assume it would easily replicate the same feat at the Federal level and at a general election. Any discerning mind would have known that the Federal might would play a critical role in the Ekiti State election. When I predicted the outcome of that election and how the scenario would play out, one young man working for Governor Peter Fayose rained venom and invectives on me like a rabid dog. Today the barking man has not uttered as much as a whimper. Such is the debilitating power of defeat.
Let me now explain why it may not be so easy for President Buhari to play the Ekiti game nationally. It was said that about 30,000 police officers were drafted to maintain law and order in Ekiti State at the just concluded elections. I leave, for another day, the issues surrounding raging questions about how and where the government found the funding, capacity and willingness to deploy such humongous human and material security forces and equipment to a small State like Ekiti State in the wake of the ravaging Boko Haram menace, the rampaging herdsmen and the riotous militants. One would have thought that a nation afflicted with the security nightmare that insurgency, militancy and terrorism presents would not deem fit to deploy such military and police might for electioneering purposes when these terrible scourges are consuming the land.I suppose, the government considers winning elections and staying in power as much more important than the lives and security of the people they swore to protect when they assumed office. Whatever the reason, we saw what must be the largest possible example of the militarisation of a State since independence. That really is the point.Can this be sustained at the Federal level for the upcoming Presidential and gubernatorial elections? I doubt it. I give my reasons below.
The entire work force of the Nigerian Police is not more than about 300,000 personnel. With 30,000 police deployed to one state alone means about 10% of the work force being deployed to that State.Ekiti is one of the smallest States in the Federation, and there are 36 States and a Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Even if only 15,000 policemen were deployed to Ekiti State and there was a desire to do this at the national level for the Presidential elections, only 20 out of 36 States and the FCT would be covered.This would leave a shortfall of 16 States. If we take the Ekiti State example and deploy 30,000 per State, only 10 States would be covered.This would also mean that for the duration, the entire police force would only be dealing with elections. Open season indeed for crooks, criminals and terrorists! To be frank the question for the young student of arithmetic is where then would the government find such number of police per State to assemble, and possibly manipulate, to achieve pre-determined goals?
Depending on who the candidate of the PDP is, I’m certain, APC will find it difficult to have its past grip on the Northern Region. Contrary to the belief that President Buhari enjoys cult-followership in the North, the reality is that this is not the case and that this aphorism cannot stand any casual scrutiny not to mention rigorous examination.The ill-concealed fact is that the President is perceived to have such a cult following because of the outcome of the 2015 Presidential elections when the President won massively in the Northern part of Nigeria.
However, the perception falls flat on its face when you examine the previous elections before 2015 critically. It is clear that the President did well in the North in those past elections, but the truth is that PDP did just as well. On a comparative basis in those previous elections, the President did a lot better this time around. What changed? As simplistic as it may sound, it was the ‘CHANGE’ mantra that made the difference.Significantly, people came together to work for President Buhari to emerge. It was not a solitary effort or lone victory!It was the victory of the people. Hitherto strong PDP enclaves suddenly saw President Buhari as the person who would bring them out of the doldrums and improve their lot. They supported him not because of what he stood for, or his person, but because they were weary and tired of the Jonathan government and its many acts of impunity, financial recklessness and brazen kleptocracy by senior government officials who did not have the welfare of the Nigerian masses at their heart.Indeed, the choice before Nigeria in 2015 was stark!It was either Jonathan or Buhari. And Nigerians did not want Jonathan much more than a case of wanting Buhari. We are at the same threshold now.
In truth, the PDP has traditionally been a Northern Party per se and it still commands substantial support in that area of the country.I keep saying that had President Jonathan been able to garner half the number of those who supported him in the North in the 2011 elections what we are saying today would not have been the story!A different reality would have been upon us.President Jonathan won in 2011 not because the North liked him personally, but because the North wanted to vote with PDP as it has been wont to do for many generations! PDP is beginning to learn its lesson and it is starting to make amends. The Party is no longer flaunting its greatly curtailed power. Its officers and Party faithfuls no longer take anything for granted.They know they must work hard to overcome the prejudices and biases of the people against them. They now appreciate that there is no certainty in politics. That realisation, which the APC appears to have had in 2015, is what the APC of 2018 now seems to be lacking. At the rate members are deserting APC in droves, it is only a matter of time before things fall apart completely.
The PDP will certainly field a Northerner to neutralise whatever might be the Buhari effect. This person would be certain to be heavily backed by other aspirants who may not get the party ticket. It is not likely that Buhari can overwhelmingly take over the North Central and North East this time around.Even in the North West, landslide victor is not assured.Every little whittling of the Buhari numbers from the 2015 elections diminishes his overall tally and makes him a sitting duck.
The promises made by APC would also be under critical scrutiny and those not kept would become subjects of public ridicule and odium. The Southern parts have become nearly no go zones, especially in the South South and South East.The South West is the only part where the President and APC may garner something a bit sizable from the Southern parts with the help of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the South West Governors. That is why Ekiti State suddenly became a do-or-die affair.The desperation was palpable, and victory had to be rammed down the throat of the electorate by all means, by hook or crook, by fire, by force! However, the use of force won’t work this time around, not least because the numbers just don’t add up and there is not enough manpower on the ground to replicate the Ekiti State debacle.  
With the margin of victory in Ekiti State so slim and wafer thin, despite the massive security apparatus and personnel deployed to enforce a victory, it appears that the game is up! The numbers game may have finally caught up with the President. Something overtly drastic has to be attempted and done to turn things around positively. 
Time will surely tell!
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UBA Foundation Kicks Off Festive Season with Spectacular Garden Light-Up

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The United Bank for Africa (UBA), through its Corporate Social Responsibility arm, the UBA Foundation, held its annual Garden Light-Up ceremony on Monday at its head office in Lagos.

The event marked the start of the festive season with a spectacular display of lights, fireworks, and music, bringing together staff, customers, and well-wishers in a celebration of unity and gratitude.

The Garden Light-Up, a cherished tradition, reflects UBA’s commitment to spreading joy and fostering a sense of community. Speaking at the event, UBA Group Managing Director/CEO Oliver Alawuba highlighted the bank’s dedication to creating memorable experiences and expressed appreciation for the efforts of staff and customers during a challenging year.

“As we approach Christmas, a time of love, we remember the spirit of giving and community,” Alawuba said. “This ceremony symbolizes hope for the future and the goodness it brings into people’s lives. I encourage everyone to spread kindness and light as we celebrate together.”

The ceremony also marked UBA’s 75th anniversary, with Alawuba emphasizing the bank’s commitment to building a lasting heritage. Guests enjoyed Christmas carols performed by the UBA Customer Fulfilment Centre choir and a guided tour of the UBA Foundation gardens at Lagos Marina.

In addition to the festivities, the UBA Foundation reaffirmed its commitment to sustainable development through initiatives that focus on education, environmental conservation, economic empowerment, and community welfare. As part of its corporate social responsibility, the Foundation will provide meals to tens of thousands of people across Africa during the holiday season.

The event ended with fireworks, leaving attendees inspired and excited for the season of giving.

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My Economic Policies Harsh, But Yielding Results, Tinubu Insists

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President Bola Tinubu has, for the umpteenth time, insisted that the economic policies that he initiated on assumption of office are now yielding the desired results.

Tinubu, who acknowledged that the policies are harsh on the people, stated that the decision became imperative in order to salvage the country from the crises facing it.

Speaking during the 34th and 35th convocation ceremonies of the Federal University of Technology, Akure, FUTA, the President, who was represented by the Vice Chancellor of the University of Ilorin, Prof. Wahab Egbewole, stated that Nigeria is now moving from consumption to production economy.

While calling for the people’s understanding and support, he maintained that his administration is open to criticisms and admiration.

The President said: “The need to salvage the future of our children and bring the country back from the brink of collapse necessitated the strategic decisions to remove the fuel subsidy and also unify the exchange rates.

“I am not unaware of the consequences of the tough decisions on our people. I sincerely wish there could be softer options.

“The macro-economy of our dear country is improving by the day and beyond expectations. The micro-economy, which directly affects our citizens, is also taking shape gradually with positive results.

“By the grace of the Almighty God, every household will experience a better life and have brighter hope for the future.

“We are working hard to ensure the safety of every Nigerian in every part of the country. Our security architecture is up to the task, and the ugly narratives of the past are changing for good. Also, we are not relenting in our pursuit of making our country a haven of prosperity for all.”

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Ademola Adeleke and Two Years of Significant Milestone

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By Eric Elezuo

“We are only getting started. The journey of transforming Osun State into a state of opportunities for all is ongoing, and with your continued support, we will achieve even greater things” –  Governor Adeleke 

The atmosphere at the Aurora Event Centre was a clear testament that the Governor of Osun State, His Excellency, Senator Ademola Jackson Nurudeen Adeleke, is not just a man of the people, but a man, whose presence and influence command love and admiration, evidence of his passion for good governance and lucid display of affection for the plight of the people.

It was the gathering of champions; a gathering that explains that his Excellency, better known as the performing Governor, has exceeded all expectations, and delivered much more than the dividends of democracy just two years in office.

The event was the celebration of excellence; the celebration of a significant milestone that has completely changed the topography of Osun State. The excitement exhibited by the people on the day, was therefore, not surprising.

Prior to the November 27, 2024 d-day, the Osun State Government had unveiled a 16-day events to mark the grand second anniversary as governor of the state.

The Secretary to the State Government, Mr. Teslim Igbalaye, who unveiled the ceremonies, rated Adeleke high in terms of service delivery, grassroots development and human capacity development.

The 16-day fiesta, according to Igbalaye comprises a health walk, novelty match, Jumaat, church service, state awards presentation, and projects commissioning.

Commenting on the achievements of the administration in the past two years, Igbalaye, said Adeleke had surpassed expectations, assuring that an increase in political activities would not distract the governor from completing all ongoing projects.

Among the projects commissioned was the dualisation of the Old Garage-Okefia Lameco Freeway, which was done by a former President, Chief Olusegun Obasanjo, which much gusto and fanfare with other dignitaries in attendance including representatives of the eight assembly – Senator Dino Melaye and Lanre Tejuoso. Others were Juju music maestro, Sir Shina Peters, notable traditional rulers, members of the executive council as well as state assembly members.

In his address at the commissioning, Obasanjo lauded Adeleke’s steadfastness in the discharge of his constitutional duties of providing good governance, reminding him that there are two more years from the present midterm, to unleash more his human faced policies, programmes and projects.

Other dignitaries that commissioned many other projects during the period included the Governor of Oyo State, Mr. Seyi Makinde, who commissioned the Osogbo Ring Road; the Minister of Works, Engr. Dave Umahi, and the Minister of Aviation, Festus Keyamo, who laid foundation for the proposed Osun Airport, and performed turning of sod for emerging projects, and a host of others.

It is worth noting that inaugurated projects spanned across the 30 local government areas in the state.

Presentation of bond certificates to contributory pensioners and presentation of award to Governor Adeleke by the contributory pensioners was also done.

As early as 10am, the event venue was a beehive of activities with groups, market men and women, political associations and students unions among others, singing the praises of the administration and the person of the governor. It was the grand entrance of the governor, flanked by aides and associates, that set the stage for what later become the mother of all events.

In their various speeches, all represented groups lauded the giant strides of the governor, highlighting areas of staunch improvement including Healthcare, Education, Investments, Entertainment, Sports, Rural Electrification and Technological advancement.

Additionally, awards were presented to outstanding individuals who contributed significantly to the growth and development of the state just as long awaited CofOs were released to deserving citizens of the state.

While addressing the mammoth crowd of happy indigenes, Governor Adeleke thanking them for their support and promised to continue his administration’s efforts in education, health, and infrastructure.

However, it was the governors speech that gave vent and flesh to the myriads of achievements that the brief two years of the Adeleke-led administration has bestowed on the people of Osun State.

He therefore, rendered his stewardship, a catalogue of immutable achievements that everyone has come to agree on.

He said, as broadcasted:

My good people of Osun State, today marks my two years in office as your popularly elected Governor. I start this broadcast by paying glowing tributes to elders, women, youths and residents of Osun State.

I convey my deep appreciation for your strong support and prayers. From November 27th, 2022 to date, Osun residents have demonstrated unshaken faith in our government. Your prayers for me and my team have strengthened us significantly. Your regular counseling have enhanced our intentional drive to deliver on good governance.

My people, you are well aware of what Osun was on and before we took over two years ago. We all recall the pains and sufferings of the public servants and pensioners. We remember the huge infrastructure and policy deficit in transportation, health, education, water, ICT, environment, agriculture and commerce and industry. We cannot forget in a hurry the deep gap between the state leadership and the people.

To revive the state and deliver on good governance, my administration launched out with a five-point agenda. We targeted specific areas of needs of the people which form the major components of the clearly defined agenda.The goal principally was to address the aspirations and immediate needs of our people.

In line with norms of accountability and responsibility to the electorate, I am obligated to render my stewardship midway into the life of our administration. It is, therefore, with praises to God Almighty and the universe that I address you on major advances our admnistration has already recorded across the sectors.

We pursue a preventive health care policy which places emphasis on access to health care. By today, our administration has upgraded 200 primary health care centers out of almost 400 with solar power, boreholes and medical materials. We are now shifting attention to the six general hospitals for upgrade and refurbishing.

In the same vein, we conducted two major Imole medical outreach with over 100, O00 beneficiaries. The third edition is upcoming, even as we have enrolled 29,000 pensioners in the health insurance scheme to bankroll their Healthcare.

On water supply, we developed three structure plans of immediate, short and long term template to resolve the acute water shortage inherited in 2022. Immediately, we delivered 332 boreholes across the 332 political wards in the state. Another 332 is ongoing. Simultaneously, we commenced the rehabilitation of the water works in major towns by relaying the rusted pipes laid in early 70s. Additionally, the abandoned 10 mini-water works are being revived while the project for Ora water scheme is also under implementation.

In the agricultural sector, we started the farm mechanization plan by purchasing 31 tractors in the first phase. Farm inputs were regularly distributed and I am launching the youth agropreneur programme across the 30 local governments and the area councils. We are reviving the farm settlements. We are implementing the new Cocoa and Cashew expansion initiatives.

For the education sector, the University of Ilesa has become a reality with take off grants and accredited courses. Rehabilitation of its internal roads are now ongoing. For the Osun State University, four abandoned projects were completed and a new anatomy laboratory was started and completed by our administration. We rehabilitated 99 secondary schools, restarted the upgrade of the six technical colleges and are about to issue letters of appointment to new teachers.

For the public service sector, our government has paid about 12 billion pension debt in two years compared with 11 billion paid by the opposition for its 12 years in the government of the state. We restored normalcy within the public service with permanent secretaries and regular promotion exercises. Half salary debt is being paid in phases, and a new minimum wage has just been approved for the state workers. Ours is an openly pro-workers government.

In Science and Technology, we gave Osun its first ICT policy, innovations policy and Startup legal framework. We introduced the first digital economy agenda for the state. Implementation of these policies and programmes are ongoing.

For the power sector, our government is finalizing a policy and legal frameworks for the electricity market system. With the devolution of the power sector, the passage of the electricity bill into law in Osun state will enable us to regulate stakeholders in the sector. An electricity regulatory commission will be set up to license generators of powers among others.

My dear people of Osun state, our administration has constructed over 120 kilometers of roads across the state. Several inter- state and intra-city roads completed are to be commissioned during this 16 days anniversary. Two major flyovers are also progressing to completion at Osogbo while works are progressing at the Ile Ife Flyover and Ilesa dualization.

I have redirected our efforts and plan at the completion of Iwo-Osogbo road. We have added the dualisation of Odoori – Adeeke road inside Iwo to be executed in two phases. The first phase will reach Post -Office and Oluwo Palace while the second phase will take off from Post Office to Adeeke Junction.

Our government has enhanced the local economy, not just through its local content policy, we have also expanded access to financing for artisans and small businesses through the cooperative societies. Several millions of naira have been advanced to the state cooperative movement as revolving loans, the first time since the First Republic. We encouraged creation of ward-based artisans cooperative societies across the 332 political wards. Another millions of naira have been advanced to the 332 business groups as revolving loans. During this anniversary, another set of small businesses will get microcredit cheques. Osun money is truly revolving within Osun State economy.

I want our people to note for the record that for all our projects and programmes, we did not obtain any loan. We only block leakages in the state finance and employ local content to moderate project cost and enforce high standards. We never discriminate on inherited projects and we never sack any contractors engaged by our predecessor. We run an open transparent government.

For the second half of our government, I reassure all sons and daughters of Osun State that the government under my leadership will complete all ongoing projects. We will continue to address the infra and social needs of our people. We will strike a balance between hard and soft infrastructure.

Going forward, we will deepen our consultation and interactive mechanism with the citizenry. As we have acted only in public interest in the last two years, we will sustain our responsiveness and respect for the wills and aspirations of our people.

Therefore, I invite you to join me as we commence the anniversary with town hall meetings and commissioning of projects and programmes.

Once again, I thank Osun elders, sons and daughters for your support and prayers. I remain your Governor who is ever committed to service to the high and the low, to the poor and the rich, and to all our citizens and residents.

I thank you for listening.

HE, Senator Ademola Jackson Nurudeen Adeleke, Executive Governor of Osun State.

Governor Adeleke, on July 16 2022 defeated the incumbent administration of Adegboyega Oyetola, and was sworn in as governor on November 27, 2022 to begin a four-year term.

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