Headline

Pendulum: Do These Guys Understand Simple Arithmetic at All?

Published

8 years ago

July 21, 2018

Eric

By Dele Momodu

Fellow Nigerians, permit me to say how flattered I was when the man of God, Pastor Tunde Bakare of the Latter Rain Assembly, described me as one of the pen prophets in Nigeria and included humble me amongst the columnists he reads regularly. I can’t thank him enough for the extra-special lengths he went to make my book launch a huge success. To whom much is given, much is certainly expected. To qualify to be a prophet means most if not all my prophecies must be as accurate as possible. This is the main reason I have decided to project into the future again, and once more tell our President the truth cronies will never tell him and his kitchen cabinet.

It is obvious that the ruling party is now enmeshed in a peculiar mess (apologies to the great young Ibadan politician of old, Adegoke Adelabu of Penkelemesi fame), almost far worse than what happened under the government of President Goodluck Jonathan. What that means is that if elections were held today, the figures wouldn’t add up for Mr President in particular. I will try to explain this simple unpalatable fact, but unacceptable reality nonetheless, in a short moment. What I’m trying to say without any equivocation or doubt or fear of contradiction is that President Muhammadu Buhari should not take it for granted that he would easily coast home to victory like he did in 2015, bearing in mind that his margin of victory was the smallest since the Fourth Republic began in 1999.

In the days of President Jonathan in power, you needed some knowledge of Additional Mathematics combined with Algebra to unravel the political permutations but not anymore. Today, your knowledge need not go beyond elementary Arithmetic. Any discerning mind can see very clearly that the present ruling party APC is already in disarray and being held precariously together by a thin thread of government patronage and fear of almighty EFCC amid the nebulous concept of probity and anti-corruption that the government has been bandying about. God knows that as we inch closer and closer to the next general elections, the President would see giant monsters jumping out of the closets that he felt were very empty and squeaky clean. By then it might be too late to salvage the situation because he is likely to have become a veritable lame duck with very few willing to do is bidding because they think he is on his way out.

It is incredible how man, as mere mortal, often forgets the past so soon. No one needs to travel too far to discover the danger lurking around the corner for the President and his ruling party. But it seems everyman likes to believe whatever lies he is told by those who should, ordinarily, be his guardian angels. I have had the chance of speaking directly to a few of the principal actors and forewarned them about the tragedy to come but I’m not sure the falcon is listening to the falconer.If it is, we are having a hard time and difficult job hearing what is being said!

If you’re on social media, you’ll feel very sorry for our dear beloved country. The war between, and inside, the different political parties is unbelievable. While the leaders meet regularly, the gba-ran-mi-delerus (busybodies) are abusing themselves slavishly, foolishly and without decorum. Everyone they disagree with is a looter, a corrupt man, a wailer and a hater – Lord-have-mercy on poor souls. What the fanatical supporters of this government fail to realise is that it is becoming almost an impossibility for the Federal Government to lock down four out of our six regions that it needs to if it must retain the Presidency. Even at the height of his popularity, Baba couldn’t win elections three consecutive times before the 2015 elections. Not much has changed from the political realities of that period. The ‘Change’ factor of 2015, which saw the amalgamation and consolidation of diverse strange bed-fellows has long since shown its true colours as merely a house of wafer thin pack of cards! It is remarkable that the grand alliance many saw as the pathway to a bright and glorious future has been blown away without even a tempest or typhoon.The sad truth is that there is virtually no region today where APC is not embattled, in some regions, it even appears as if it is in its death throes.

The arguments of many APC die-hards include the fact that APC won the controversial gubernatorial election in Ekiti State. While I congratulate my dear friend, Dr Kayode Fayemi, on his hard won and well-deserved victory, given his qualifications, capabilities and antecedents, APC should not assume it would easily replicate the same feat at the Federal level and at a general election. Any discerning mind would have known that the Federal might would play a critical role in the Ekiti State election. When I predicted the outcome of that election and how the scenario would play out, one young man working for Governor Peter Fayose rained venom and invectives on me like a rabid dog. Today the barking man has not uttered as much as a whimper. Such is the debilitating power of defeat.

Let me now explain why it may not be so easy for President Buhari to play the Ekiti game nationally. It was said that about 30,000 police officers were drafted to maintain law and order in Ekiti State at the just concluded elections. I leave, for another day, the issues surrounding raging questions about how and where the government found the funding, capacity and willingness to deploy such humongous human and material security forces and equipment to a small State like Ekiti State in the wake of the ravaging Boko Haram menace, the rampaging herdsmen and the riotous militants. One would have thought that a nation afflicted with the security nightmare that insurgency, militancy and terrorism presents would not deem fit to deploy such military and police might for electioneering purposes when these terrible scourges are consuming the land.I suppose, the government considers winning elections and staying in power as much more important than the lives and security of the people they swore to protect when they assumed office. Whatever the reason, we saw what must be the largest possible example of the militarisation of a State since independence. That really is the point.Can this be sustained at the Federal level for the upcoming Presidential and gubernatorial elections? I doubt it. I give my reasons below.

The entire work force of the Nigerian Police is not more than about 300,000 personnel. With 30,000 police deployed to one state alone means about 10% of the work force being deployed to that State.Ekiti is one of the smallest States in the Federation, and there are 36 States and a Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Even if only 15,000 policemen were deployed to Ekiti State and there was a desire to do this at the national level for the Presidential elections, only 20 out of 36 States and the FCT would be covered.This would leave a shortfall of 16 States. If we take the Ekiti State example and deploy 30,000 per State, only 10 States would be covered.This would also mean that for the duration, the entire police force would only be dealing with elections. Open season indeed for crooks, criminals and terrorists! To be frank the question for the young student of arithmetic is where then would the government find such number of police per State to assemble, and possibly manipulate, to achieve pre-determined goals?

Depending on who the candidate of the PDP is, I’m certain, APC will find it difficult to have its past grip on the Northern Region. Contrary to the belief that President Buhari enjoys cult-followership in the North, the reality is that this is not the case and that this aphorism cannot stand any casual scrutiny not to mention rigorous examination.The ill-concealed fact is that the President is perceived to have such a cult following because of the outcome of the 2015 Presidential elections when the President won massively in the Northern part of Nigeria.

However, the perception falls flat on its face when you examine the previous elections before 2015 critically. It is clear that the President did well in the North in those past elections, but the truth is that PDP did just as well. On a comparative basis in those previous elections, the President did a lot better this time around. What changed? As simplistic as it may sound, it was the ‘CHANGE’ mantra that made the difference.Significantly, people came together to work for President Buhari to emerge. It was not a solitary effort or lone victory!It was the victory of the people. Hitherto strong PDP enclaves suddenly saw President Buhari as the person who would bring them out of the doldrums and improve their lot. They supported him not because of what he stood for, or his person, but because they were weary and tired of the Jonathan government and its many acts of impunity, financial recklessness and brazen kleptocracy by senior government officials who did not have the welfare of the Nigerian masses at their heart.Indeed, the choice before Nigeria in 2015 was stark!It was either Jonathan or Buhari. And Nigerians did not want Jonathan much more than a case of wanting Buhari. We are at the same threshold now.

In truth, the PDP has traditionally been a Northern Party per se and it still commands substantial support in that area of the country.I keep saying that had President Jonathan been able to garner half the number of those who supported him in the North in the 2011 elections what we are saying today would not have been the story!A different reality would have been upon us.President Jonathan won in 2011 not because the North liked him personally, but because the North wanted to vote with PDP as it has been wont to do for many generations! PDP is beginning to learn its lesson and it is starting to make amends. The Party is no longer flaunting its greatly curtailed power. Its officers and Party faithfuls no longer take anything for granted.They know they must work hard to overcome the prejudices and biases of the people against them. They now appreciate that there is no certainty in politics. That realisation, which the APC appears to have had in 2015, is what the APC of 2018 now seems to be lacking. At the rate members are deserting APC in droves, it is only a matter of time before things fall apart completely.

The PDP will certainly field a Northerner to neutralise whatever might be the Buhari effect. This person would be certain to be heavily backed by other aspirants who may not get the party ticket. It is not likely that Buhari can overwhelmingly take over the North Central and North East this time around.Even in the North West, landslide victor is not assured.Every little whittling of the Buhari numbers from the 2015 elections diminishes his overall tally and makes him a sitting duck.

The promises made by APC would also be under critical scrutiny and those not kept would become subjects of public ridicule and odium. The Southern parts have become nearly no go zones, especially in the South South and South East.The South West is the only part where the President and APC may garner something a bit sizable from the Southern parts with the help of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the South West Governors. That is why Ekiti State suddenly became a do-or-die affair.The desperation was palpable, and victory had to be rammed down the throat of the electorate by all means, by hook or crook, by fire, by force! However, the use of force won’t work this time around, not least because the numbers just don’t add up and there is not enough manpower on the ground to replicate the Ekiti State debacle.

With the margin of victory in Ekiti State so slim and wafer thin, despite the massive security apparatus and personnel deployed to enforce a victory, it appears that the game is up! The numbers game may have finally caught up with the President. Something overtly drastic has to be attempted and done to turn things around positively.

Time will surely tell!

Headline

Akpabio Lashes Out at Tinubu’s Critics, Says Nigeria Safe Despite Insecurity

Published

3 days ago

June 10, 2026

Eric

The Senate President, Godswill Akpabio, has urged Nigerians to be careful of those trying to kidnap for ransom.

Akpabio argued on Tuesday that those behind kidnapping are perpetuating the activity to create an impression that Nigeria is not safe.

Speaking in Abuja during the commissioning of road projects to mark President Bola Tinubu’s third year anniversary, Akpabio said some of the president’s critics have resorted to paying youths to cause mayhem.

Akpabio accused Tinubu’s critics of focusing on insecurity instead of policy and infrastructure.

“Minister you said that people claimed that nothing is happening in Nigeria under the administration of President Tinubu. If they did not say that, how will they go for election? he asked rhetorically.

“If you realize what is happening recently, when they realized that they can’t talk about projects, performance, good laws, transformation in the Petroleum industry, subsidy removal that have been promised Nigerians for decades, they can no longer talk about the high-rise buildings in Abuja such as the NRS building, they resorted to paying young people and recruiting them to cause mayhem in the country.

“Be very vigilant and be careful about people trying to kidnap for ransom. They are kidnapping in order to give the impression that Nigeria is not safe.

“Our men and women in uniform have done tremendously well but many people will not know and that is why I keep saying that the devil you see today, you will soon see them no more.

“Elections will come and go; elections will never be our end; we will see the end of elections; it will never see our end,” he said.

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The Search for Justice: ADC vs Tsoho

Published

5 days ago

June 8, 2026

Eric

By Eric Elezuo

From the first day the African Democratic Congress (ADC) took a new shape in July, 2025, in readiness to wrest power from the government of the day, crises, allegedly engineered by the President Bola Tinubu-led All Progressives Congress (APC), have remained its lot.

From the struggle for leadership positions to the fight to save itself from deregistration, the hitherto coalition and main opposition party, has remained in a battle for its life and existence. And has not relented in the search for lasting justice. This time, it has taken the law itself to court to ensure that justice is not only done, but seen to have been done.

It would be recalled that shortly after the the party ratified the election of Senator David Mark and Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola as Chairman and Secretary of the party respectively, skirmishes were noticed among the rank and file of the party as a supposedly former deputy national chairman of the party, Nafiu Bala Gombe, claimed chairmanship of party, saying that since the founding chairman had resigned, it is constitutionally incumbent upon him to automatically assume the chairmanship role.

Gombe’s claims came on the heels of his ‘resignation’ from office, which paved the way for a new national executive of the party to be constituted. But his claims did not deter the party from carrying on with the formation and running of the party, including holding a keenly contested presidential primary election, which produced His Excellency, the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar. So Gombe went to court. Yet, Mark and Aregbesola carried on the running of the party.

As a result, Gombe had approached a court for an order restraining Mark leadership from parading themselves as leaders of the ADC pending the hearing and determination of his suit challenging their leadership.

He had also asked the court to issue another order against the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), restraining it from recognizing the Mark leadership.

But in his ruling in the interlocutory application, Justice Emeka Nwite ordered Gombe to put the defendants on notice so that they appear before the court to show cause, why the application should not be granted.

Rather than appearing before the trial court to show cause, the defendant appealed to the Abuja division of the Court of Appeal, challenging the jurisdiction of the trial court to dabble into the matter they described as internal matters of the ADC.

The appellate court in dismissing the appeal for lacking in merit, ordered accelerated hearing in the suit and further ordered all parties to maintain status quo ante bellum.

Dissatisfied, Mark had approached the appellate court but, his appeal was dismissed and the matter returned to the trial court.

With the to and from nature of the cases involving the ADC leadership crisis, the party has accused judges of bias in favoring party detractors and disobedience to court rules among other malice, the party has taken a new route to obtain the much eluded justice, and that involves charging the custodians of the law to court.

Consequently, the ADC has filed a lawsuit before a High Court in Abuja involving the Chief Judge of the Federal High Court, Justice John Tsoho, over concerns arising from the ongoing leadership dispute within the party.

Also joined in the suit is the National Judicial Council (NJC), which the party said had not addressed issues it raised regarding the handling of a case challenging the leadership of former Senate President, Senator David Mark, within the ADC.

The lawsuit, dated June 4, 2026, was filed by the National Welfare Secretary of the ADC, Nkemakolam Ukandu, who is seeking to be joined in Suit No: FHC/ABJ/CS/1819/2025 instituted by Nafiu Bala Gombe against the Mark-led leadership of the party.

According to the suit, Ukandu expressed concerns about the handling of the matter and alleged that the actions of both Justice Tsoho and Justice Peter Lifu, the judge assigned to hear the case, could affect confidence in the proceedings.

The lawsuit further stated that the assignment of the case to Justice Lifu stirred concerns among some members of the party, who believe the process may not guarantee a fair hearing.

The legal action marks a fresh twist in the leadership dispute within the ADC, which has attracted significant political attention ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Aside Justice John Tsoho, other defendants are the National Judicial Council (NJC), and Justice Peter Lifu, a judge newly assigned to hear the suit challenging the Senator David Mark-led leadership of ADC.

The plaintiff, who was seeking to be joined in the Suit No: FHC/ABJ/CS/1819/2025, brought by Nafiu Bala Gombe against the Mark-led leadership, accused the chief judge and Lifu of manifest bias, and willingness to do the biddings of persons against the interest of the party.

Ukandu, in the suit he personally filed at the Federal High Court, Abuja, faulted the chief judge for reassigning the suit to Lifu, in alleged disregard of the orders of the Supreme Court as well as Justice Emeka Nwite of the Abuja division of the Federal High Court, who initially heard the suit brought by Gombe against the party.

The plaintiff, in the suit marked FHC/ ABJ/ CS/ 1165/2026, recalled that an appeal from an interlocutory decision of Nwite rose to the Supreme Court, wherein the apex court on April 30, 2026, “made an order of remittance of Suit No: FHC/ABJ/CS/1819/2025: Nafiu Bala Gombe VS. ADC & 4 ORS back to Justice Emeka Nwite for continuation of hearing of pending applications challenging the jurisdiction of the trial court.”

He stated that upon resumption of hearing before Nwite, the plaintiff wrote to the chief judge praying for a reassignment of the matter to another judge of the Honourable Court.

Ukandu stated, “All the defendants’ counsel, including counsel to the applicants seeking to be joined in this matter, opposed the said application by the plaintiff’s counsel and Hon. Justice Emeka Nwite thereafter adjourned the matter sine die pending the service of the said letter by the plaintiff’s on all the parties in the matter, outcome of the letter by the 2nd defendant and the furnishing of the CTC of the judgement of the Supreme Court to the court.

“Without complying with the orders of the Supreme Court and Hon. Justice Emeka Nwite, the 2nd Defendant in abuse of his judicial powers reassigned this matter,” to Lifu.

He added that the third defendant, on his part, pretending not to see the order of Nwite, went ahead and fixed the matter for hearing for June 3, 2026.

Ukandu further recalled that ADC had on May 7 informed the public through a press release that the chief judge had planned to reassign the case to another judge favourable to the plaintiff.

He said the party had “warned against such unethical practice but the 2nd Defendant despite the public outcry reassigned the suit to the 3rd Defendant who have been nick-named as ‘Wike Judges’.”

He stated that the third defendant had started presiding over the matter, despite taking judicial notice of the orders of the Supreme Court and Nwite, and that the matter came up for hearing before the third defendant.

Though neither the Federal High Court nor the National Judicial Council had publicly responded to the issues raised so far, it is imperative to to state that the ADC appears to have lost interest in both the judiciary, which it believe is kowtowing to the dictates of Gombe, and by extension the body language of the Federal Government.

The ADC appears to have managed to draw the sympathy of the public as a group known as the Grassroots Mobilization Network (GMN), has lent their voice to the supposed injustice leveled against the Mark-led ADC, raising concerns about the handling of the matter, and calling for transparency in the judicial process.

The group alleged that the judiciary was being used to target opposition parties.

The group expressed concern over what it described as growing public distrust in the judiciary and called on relevant authorities to ensure fairness and transparency in the handling of politically sensitive cases.

While Nigerians await the outcome of the litigation, and other resolution of other sundry issues arising from the ADC and the judiciary, the party is going ahead making last minute transparent efforts to nominate a suitable running mate to bear the presidential flag with the presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar.

Among the party’s shortlists are the first runner-up in the presidential primary, Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi, Mrs. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Akinwumi Adesina, Emeka Ihedioha, Emeka Nwajiuba and Chief Dele Momodu.

Headline

Gunmen Abduct Ex-Power Minister Adelabu’s Sister, Her Two Sons in Ibadan

Published

1 week ago

June 3, 2026

Eric

Suspected gunmen have abducted the sister of a former Minister of Power, Adebayo Adelabu, in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital.

The family of former minister and chieftain of the All Progressives Congress (APC) confirmed the abduction, disclosing that Mrs. Olaide John-Paul and her 12-year-old twin sons were kidnapped by the gunmen on Wednesday, June 3, 2026.

According to a statement issued by Adelabu’s media aide, Femi Awogboro, the victims were kidnapped at about 7:30am while Mrs. John-Paul was taking her children to school.

Mrs. John-Paul, the youngest of five children of Mrs. Olufunmilayo Aduke Adegoke Adelabu, reportedly retired voluntarily from her career at First Bank Pension Custodian in 2025 before relocating to Ibadan with her children.

She was said to be making arrangements to join her husband, who had earlier relocated to the US.

The family expressed deep concern over the development but stated that security agencies had already commenced efforts to rescue the victims and apprehend those responsible.

“We are pleased to confirm that security operatives have swung into action and preliminary investigations have commenced in earnest,” the statement partly read.

While appealing for calm, the family urged members of the public to refrain from spreading unverified information that could undermine ongoing rescue operations.

“We are deeply distressed by this unfortunate incident, but remain hopeful that the victims will be rescued safely. We appeal to the public to remain calm, avoid speculation and support ongoing efforts with prayers,” the statement added.

The family also called on anyone with useful information that could aid the rescue operation to promptly share such intelligence with security agencies through the appropriate channels.

It assured that it would continue to cooperate fully with law enforcement authorities and provide updates as investigations and rescue efforts progress.