Headline

Pendulum: Do These Guys Understand Simple Arithmetic at All?

Published

7 years ago

July 21, 2018

Eric

By Dele Momodu

Fellow Nigerians, permit me to say how flattered I was when the man of God, Pastor Tunde Bakare of the Latter Rain Assembly, described me as one of the pen prophets in Nigeria and included humble me amongst the columnists he reads regularly. I can’t thank him enough for the extra-special lengths he went to make my book launch a huge success. To whom much is given, much is certainly expected. To qualify to be a prophet means most if not all my prophecies must be as accurate as possible. This is the main reason I have decided to project into the future again, and once more tell our President the truth cronies will never tell him and his kitchen cabinet.

It is obvious that the ruling party is now enmeshed in a peculiar mess (apologies to the great young Ibadan politician of old, Adegoke Adelabu of Penkelemesi fame), almost far worse than what happened under the government of President Goodluck Jonathan. What that means is that if elections were held today, the figures wouldn’t add up for Mr President in particular. I will try to explain this simple unpalatable fact, but unacceptable reality nonetheless, in a short moment. What I’m trying to say without any equivocation or doubt or fear of contradiction is that President Muhammadu Buhari should not take it for granted that he would easily coast home to victory like he did in 2015, bearing in mind that his margin of victory was the smallest since the Fourth Republic began in 1999.

In the days of President Jonathan in power, you needed some knowledge of Additional Mathematics combined with Algebra to unravel the political permutations but not anymore. Today, your knowledge need not go beyond elementary Arithmetic. Any discerning mind can see very clearly that the present ruling party APC is already in disarray and being held precariously together by a thin thread of government patronage and fear of almighty EFCC amid the nebulous concept of probity and anti-corruption that the government has been bandying about. God knows that as we inch closer and closer to the next general elections, the President would see giant monsters jumping out of the closets that he felt were very empty and squeaky clean. By then it might be too late to salvage the situation because he is likely to have become a veritable lame duck with very few willing to do is bidding because they think he is on his way out.

It is incredible how man, as mere mortal, often forgets the past so soon. No one needs to travel too far to discover the danger lurking around the corner for the President and his ruling party. But it seems everyman likes to believe whatever lies he is told by those who should, ordinarily, be his guardian angels. I have had the chance of speaking directly to a few of the principal actors and forewarned them about the tragedy to come but I’m not sure the falcon is listening to the falconer.If it is, we are having a hard time and difficult job hearing what is being said!

If you’re on social media, you’ll feel very sorry for our dear beloved country. The war between, and inside, the different political parties is unbelievable. While the leaders meet regularly, the gba-ran-mi-delerus (busybodies) are abusing themselves slavishly, foolishly and without decorum. Everyone they disagree with is a looter, a corrupt man, a wailer and a hater – Lord-have-mercy on poor souls. What the fanatical supporters of this government fail to realise is that it is becoming almost an impossibility for the Federal Government to lock down four out of our six regions that it needs to if it must retain the Presidency. Even at the height of his popularity, Baba couldn’t win elections three consecutive times before the 2015 elections. Not much has changed from the political realities of that period. The ‘Change’ factor of 2015, which saw the amalgamation and consolidation of diverse strange bed-fellows has long since shown its true colours as merely a house of wafer thin pack of cards! It is remarkable that the grand alliance many saw as the pathway to a bright and glorious future has been blown away without even a tempest or typhoon.The sad truth is that there is virtually no region today where APC is not embattled, in some regions, it even appears as if it is in its death throes.

The arguments of many APC die-hards include the fact that APC won the controversial gubernatorial election in Ekiti State. While I congratulate my dear friend, Dr Kayode Fayemi, on his hard won and well-deserved victory, given his qualifications, capabilities and antecedents, APC should not assume it would easily replicate the same feat at the Federal level and at a general election. Any discerning mind would have known that the Federal might would play a critical role in the Ekiti State election. When I predicted the outcome of that election and how the scenario would play out, one young man working for Governor Peter Fayose rained venom and invectives on me like a rabid dog. Today the barking man has not uttered as much as a whimper. Such is the debilitating power of defeat.

Let me now explain why it may not be so easy for President Buhari to play the Ekiti game nationally. It was said that about 30,000 police officers were drafted to maintain law and order in Ekiti State at the just concluded elections. I leave, for another day, the issues surrounding raging questions about how and where the government found the funding, capacity and willingness to deploy such humongous human and material security forces and equipment to a small State like Ekiti State in the wake of the ravaging Boko Haram menace, the rampaging herdsmen and the riotous militants. One would have thought that a nation afflicted with the security nightmare that insurgency, militancy and terrorism presents would not deem fit to deploy such military and police might for electioneering purposes when these terrible scourges are consuming the land.I suppose, the government considers winning elections and staying in power as much more important than the lives and security of the people they swore to protect when they assumed office. Whatever the reason, we saw what must be the largest possible example of the militarisation of a State since independence. That really is the point.Can this be sustained at the Federal level for the upcoming Presidential and gubernatorial elections? I doubt it. I give my reasons below.

The entire work force of the Nigerian Police is not more than about 300,000 personnel. With 30,000 police deployed to one state alone means about 10% of the work force being deployed to that State.Ekiti is one of the smallest States in the Federation, and there are 36 States and a Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Even if only 15,000 policemen were deployed to Ekiti State and there was a desire to do this at the national level for the Presidential elections, only 20 out of 36 States and the FCT would be covered.This would leave a shortfall of 16 States. If we take the Ekiti State example and deploy 30,000 per State, only 10 States would be covered.This would also mean that for the duration, the entire police force would only be dealing with elections. Open season indeed for crooks, criminals and terrorists! To be frank the question for the young student of arithmetic is where then would the government find such number of police per State to assemble, and possibly manipulate, to achieve pre-determined goals?

Depending on who the candidate of the PDP is, I’m certain, APC will find it difficult to have its past grip on the Northern Region. Contrary to the belief that President Buhari enjoys cult-followership in the North, the reality is that this is not the case and that this aphorism cannot stand any casual scrutiny not to mention rigorous examination.The ill-concealed fact is that the President is perceived to have such a cult following because of the outcome of the 2015 Presidential elections when the President won massively in the Northern part of Nigeria.

However, the perception falls flat on its face when you examine the previous elections before 2015 critically. It is clear that the President did well in the North in those past elections, but the truth is that PDP did just as well. On a comparative basis in those previous elections, the President did a lot better this time around. What changed? As simplistic as it may sound, it was the ‘CHANGE’ mantra that made the difference.Significantly, people came together to work for President Buhari to emerge. It was not a solitary effort or lone victory!It was the victory of the people. Hitherto strong PDP enclaves suddenly saw President Buhari as the person who would bring them out of the doldrums and improve their lot. They supported him not because of what he stood for, or his person, but because they were weary and tired of the Jonathan government and its many acts of impunity, financial recklessness and brazen kleptocracy by senior government officials who did not have the welfare of the Nigerian masses at their heart.Indeed, the choice before Nigeria in 2015 was stark!It was either Jonathan or Buhari. And Nigerians did not want Jonathan much more than a case of wanting Buhari. We are at the same threshold now.

In truth, the PDP has traditionally been a Northern Party per se and it still commands substantial support in that area of the country.I keep saying that had President Jonathan been able to garner half the number of those who supported him in the North in the 2011 elections what we are saying today would not have been the story!A different reality would have been upon us.President Jonathan won in 2011 not because the North liked him personally, but because the North wanted to vote with PDP as it has been wont to do for many generations! PDP is beginning to learn its lesson and it is starting to make amends. The Party is no longer flaunting its greatly curtailed power. Its officers and Party faithfuls no longer take anything for granted.They know they must work hard to overcome the prejudices and biases of the people against them. They now appreciate that there is no certainty in politics. That realisation, which the APC appears to have had in 2015, is what the APC of 2018 now seems to be lacking. At the rate members are deserting APC in droves, it is only a matter of time before things fall apart completely.

The PDP will certainly field a Northerner to neutralise whatever might be the Buhari effect. This person would be certain to be heavily backed by other aspirants who may not get the party ticket. It is not likely that Buhari can overwhelmingly take over the North Central and North East this time around.Even in the North West, landslide victor is not assured.Every little whittling of the Buhari numbers from the 2015 elections diminishes his overall tally and makes him a sitting duck.

The promises made by APC would also be under critical scrutiny and those not kept would become subjects of public ridicule and odium. The Southern parts have become nearly no go zones, especially in the South South and South East.The South West is the only part where the President and APC may garner something a bit sizable from the Southern parts with the help of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the South West Governors. That is why Ekiti State suddenly became a do-or-die affair.The desperation was palpable, and victory had to be rammed down the throat of the electorate by all means, by hook or crook, by fire, by force! However, the use of force won’t work this time around, not least because the numbers just don’t add up and there is not enough manpower on the ground to replicate the Ekiti State debacle.

With the margin of victory in Ekiti State so slim and wafer thin, despite the massive security apparatus and personnel deployed to enforce a victory, it appears that the game is up! The numbers game may have finally caught up with the President. Something overtly drastic has to be attempted and done to turn things around positively.

Time will surely tell!

Headline

Former Delta Gov, Ifeanyi Okowa, Defects to APC

Published

1 day ago

April 23, 2025

Eric

Former Governor of Delta State, Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential running mate in the 2023 election, Senator Ifeanyi Okowa, has dumped the PDP for the All Progressives Congress (APC).

Okowa confirmed the news of his defection to ARISE NEWS on Wednesday following the announcement of the current governor of Delta State, Sheriff Oborevwori, who also defected from the PDP to the APC on Wednesday.

The development was disclosed by Senator James Manager after a six-hour meeting at Government House, Asaba.

“All PDP members in the state, including the governor, former Governor Okowa, the Speaker, the state party chairman, all the local government chairmen and others, have agreed to move to the APC,” Manager stated. “We cannot continue to be in a sinking boat.”

Delta State Commissioner for Information, Mr Aniagwu Charles, officially confirmed the sweeping political shift, attributing the decision to the need for renewed direction and enhanced governance in the state.

“There is a need for us to adjust our drinking patterns. And in adjusting that drinking pattern, we needed to make a decision that would further help to cement the development in our state,” he said.

Aniagwu added that the move aimed to sustain progress in law, security, and welfare, likening the PDP to a “palm wine whose taste has changed,” necessitating a change in “drinking party”.

He further indicated that the defection was unanimously agreed upon by key PDP leaders and stakeholders in the state, with a formal public declaration expected on Monday.

“By the grace of God, on Monday next week, we will be able to make a very big statement confirming that we are moving into the APC,” he said.

The mass defection represents a dramatic realignment in Delta State’s political landscape and could significantly alter party dynamics in the broader South-South region, historically a PDP stronghold.

Okowa will be received on Monday by Vice President Kashim Shettima alongside Governor Oborevwori.

AriseNews

Headline

Delta Gov, Oborevwori Dumps PDP, Joins APC

Published

1 day ago

April 23, 2025

Eric

Delta State governor, Rt. Hon. Sheriff Oborevwori has defected from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC).

The defection was announced after Wednesday’s closed-door meeting at the Government House in Asaba by the Governor’s Chief Press Secretary, Sir Festus Ahon.

Ahon said the Governor’s decision to switch allegiance to the ruling APC came after thorough discussions with political stakeholders, aimed at fostering long-term development for Delta State.

Governor Oborevwori, who secured victory in the 2023 gubernatorial election under the platform of the PDP, was welcomed by high-ranking APC officials.

Headline

Nigeria: Welcome to a One-Party State

Published

4 days ago

April 21, 2025

Eric

By Eric Elezuo

Following the unanimous decision of the governors of the main opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to reject proposed merger and coalition with other political parties and interests, it appears that there’s an unspoken desire to facilitate, propagate and elongate the Bola Tinubu presidency beyond 2027.

The PDP governors had in Ibadan, during a meeting, dismissed speculations of a possible merger of parties ahead of the 2027 general elections.

The Chairman of the PDP Governors’ Forum and Governor of Bauchi State, Bala Mohammed, who read the communique after the 2025/4th meeting, held in Ibadan, the Oyo State capital, said, “The Forum has resolved that the PDP will not join any coalition or merger.”

He said PDP, as a major opposition party, will welcome any party, persons or groups that are willing to join the party with a view to wrestling power and enthroning good leadership in 2027.

This assertion, according to stakeholders, who believe that the present PDP or any other party, cannot unseat Tinubu in 2027, appears to be a rubber stamp on the continuation of the Tinubu administration. Some have alleged that the some PDP governors may have sold out to the All Progressives Congress (APC), thereby refusing a coalition, that may likely unseat the APC government in 2027. They said that with the recent trend of events, it is obvious that Nigeria, under Tinubu is heading to an inglorious one-party status.

During the weekend, at a public function, Governor Umo Eno of Akwa Ibom State, confirmed support for President Tinubu saying in his state, there’s no more party politics as they are all in a “unity party” of PDP and APC.

In the same vein, the suspended Governor of Rivers State, Sim Fubara, has called on his people to support Tinubu, and by extension, his APC. Stakeholders believe it’s all about getting to nod for their second term in office. The scenario is also incumbent upon the governors of Enugu and Delta states, Peter Mba and Sheriff Oborevwori respectively, who are fast weighing their options.

Investigations, as reported by ThisDay, revealed that defection talks with many PDP governors have reached advanced stages. It was said however, that certain conditions are said to be attached to the proposed deals to make it a win-win situation for all negotiating parties.

It is therefore, no longer news, going by the way events are unfolding, that the President Bola Tinubu-led administration is doing everything within its power to turn the country into a one-party state. Much as the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria is silent on the nation’s party system, it is a known fact that the country strives, and has been striving on multi-party convention.

However, events recent times, or dating to the advent of the Tinubu government, has revealed a trend that showed there is a tendency being hatched by the president to convert the country to a one-party state, loyal to the party at the centre, the All Progressives Congress (APC).

It is important to note that this unholy trend is not a function of the ballot papers or boxes or electoral propriety, but inordinate manipulations, using the instrumentality of the courts, judiciary, coercion, forced decamping, monetary inducement and outright intimidation.

It is a fact that since independence, Nigeria has maintained a multiparty system except in 1992 when the President Ibrahim Babangida Military Government, through a conference, allowed a two-party system, leading to the 1993 inconclusive elections, touted to have been won by Chief MKO Abiola. The two parties were the Social Democratic Party (SDP) and the National Republican Party (NRC). But with the return of democracy in 1999, the country has maintained a multiparty system, albeit conventionally.

But over the years, much as multiple parties are registered, only two are always the frontline parties, with clear exceptions of 1979 and 2023 when the regional inclination reared its head again as it was in the 1963 and 1966 elections.

In the 1960s, there were the Northern Peoples Congress (NPC), the National Convention of Nigerian Citizens (NCNC) and the Action Group (AG) among others.

In 1979, there were the National Party zof Nigeria (NPN), the Nigerian Peoples Party (NPP), the Unity Party of Nigeria (UPN), the Great Nigeria Peoples Party (GNPP) and the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP).

And then in 2023, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Labour Party (LP) slugged it out.

However, dating back to six months into the President Tinubu ascension to the throne, the political positions are making dramatic switches to the APC via court rulings, giving a cross sections of Nigerians the effontery to believe there is a hidden agenda to welcome a new Nigeria where political positions both elected and appointed are ‘allocated’ to Tinubu’s APC.

A few instances earlier emerged to raise eyebrows as regards the direction and shape Nigeria political landscape is taking. Among the instances are the following:

SACK OF ALL ELECTED PDP PLATEAU LAWMAKERS

Earlier in September, the Speaker of Plateau State House of Assembly, Moses Sule was sacked by the state election petitions tribunal.

The election petition tribunal sitting in Jos, sacked the lawmaker, who was elected on the Peoples Democratic Party’s (PDP) platform in the last election.

He was sacked alongside Danjuma Azi, a member representing Jos North West constituency in the assembly. The tribunal declared the former majority leader of the house, Hon. Naanlong Daniel and Hon. Mark Na’ah, all of the APC as winners of the March 18 elections.

In November, no fewer than four National Assembly members elected on the platform of the PDP including the Senate Minority Leader, Simon Mwadkwon, were sacked by the Appeal Court on the grounds that the PDP had no valid structure in the state. They were replaced with failed APC candidates including the former governor, Simon Lalong, who is now the Minister of Labour and Productivity, sparking unrest in the state.

THE THEN SACK OF ZAMFARA GOVERNOR

The Court of Appeal sitting Abuja sacked Governor Dauda Lawal of Zamfara and declared the March 18 governorship election in the state as inconclusive.

The court also ordered a rerun in three local government areas: Maradun, Birnin-Magaji and Bukkuyum.

Zamfara is currently governed by Mr Lawal of the Peoples Democratic Party, who defeated the then-incumbent governor, Bello Matawalle, of the APC. Matawalle is now the Minister of State for Defence in the Tinubu administration.

The election tribunal in Zamfara had earlier ruled in favour of Mr Lawal, but its ruling has now been overturned by the appeal court.

The Supreme Court however, overturned the ruling of the Appeal Court, and Lawal retained his seat.

SACK OF KANO STATE GOVERNOR

Also, the Court of Appeal in Abuja upheld the ruling of the Election Petitions Tribunal sacking Governor Abba Yusuf of Kano State.

In its judgment, the Appeal Court agreed with the judgment of the tribunal, ruling that the fielding of Abba Yusuf was in breach of the Electoral Law as he was not qualified to contest that Election

The verdict comes nearly two months after the Kano Governorship Election Petition Tribunal, on September 20, sacked Yusuf, declaring the All Progressives Congress (APC) candidate, Nasiru Gawuna, as the winner of the March 18 election.

Yusuf, who contested on the platform of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), was declared the winner of the election by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) after the poll in March.

The tribunal deducted 165,663 votes from Yusuf’s total as invalid votes, stating that the affected ballot papers were not stamped or signed and therefore declared invalid.

The ruling came about six months after the APC candidate conceded defeat to Yusuf in the wake of INEC’s presentation of the certificate of return to the NNPP candidate.

Observers and stakeholders see the judgment as a means of restoring Kano as an APC stronghold as well as returning its Chairman, and former governor, Abdullahi Ganduje as a force to reckon with in Kano politics in preparation for the 2027 election onslaught. But like in Zamfara, the Supreme Court restored Yusuf as duly elected governor.

KOGI AND IMO GUBER ELECTIONS

The candidates of the APC, Hope Uzodinma of Imo State, and Usman Ododo of Kogi State, were both declared winners of the November 11, 2023 governorship elections in the states, by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) amid widely reported irregularities.

DailyPost reported that “lapses were recorded in the elections. There were controversies surrounding the data provided on the IReV. Allegations of pre-written results were rife. Worse still, INEC affirmed the controversial results despite alleged evidence of overvoting, disruption of the voting process and clear instances of security agencies aiding the snatching of ballot boxes.”

These were better showcased in Kogi State.

According to YIAGA Africa, one of the accredited observers for the elections, there were proliferation of the pre-filled result sheet in Polling Unit 020 in Eika/Ohizenyi, Okehi Local Government Area of the state.

The same development was witnessed in PU 004 in Eni Ward of Ogori/Magongo Local Government Area. Yet INEC discountenanced the alarm, and went ahead to release results, and declare the APC candidate winner.

Some observers and Kogi political stakeholders have dismissed everything that happened to the handiwork of the incumbent Governor, Yahaya Bello. The governor hasninturn thank President Tinubu for the enabling environment to hold and win the election.

In Imo State, a Daily Post investigation reveals that videos were in circulation where security personnel were accused of allegedly helping the government in power disrupt the voting process, and make away with electoral materials.

The paper wrote: “One such incident happened at the Umuchoko Umuohiagu Junction Polling Unit in Ward 11 of Ngor Okpala LGA, where thugs allegedly working for the All Progressives Congress (APC) carted away ballot boxes and other election materials.

“This reportedly happened after the votes were counted and PDP led with 65 votes against APC’s 35 votes and LP’s 17 votes.

Following the alleged gross manipulation and rigging of the polls, some political parties and their candidates, rejected the results.

While Nigerians have expressed disappointment in INEC and their conduct of elections, it is still unclear whose agenda the electoral body is propagating; theirs or the government of the state?

“This government is just positioning itself for the final battle in 2027, and don’t care if they turned this nation into a one-party state. However, it is too early to begin such grandstanding when the elections are still over three years away,” a political analyst told The Boss

But countering the position, an APC stalwart in Lagos State, hinted that there is no better time to do what the party is doing at the present.

“This is the appropriate time to plant only APC members across the country, thanks to the court cases. You know it will be difficult to turn incumbents to party members after the court cases. Using the judiciary to achieve this aim makes everything absolutely foolproof. The party will come after whatever remnants are left in other parties at the conclusion of court cases,” the chieftain, who craved anonymity, said.

One and half years after, a lot more of shenanigans have cropped up, giving the impression that it’s either one supports Tinubu, or he is removed from the national political equation. The avalanche of crosscarpetings and outright support in the midst of economic downturn and hardships, are evidence that the road to a one-party Nigeria, is fast been cleared.

However, the likes of former presidential candidates of the PDP and Labour Party in the 2023 presidential election, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, are making frantic efforts to achieve a coalition that can unseat Tinubu in 2023, but forces are frustrating the efforts, including their own party internal machineries.