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Pendulum: Do These Guys Understand Simple Arithmetic at All?

Published

8 years ago

July 21, 2018

Eric

By Dele Momodu

Fellow Nigerians, permit me to say how flattered I was when the man of God, Pastor Tunde Bakare of the Latter Rain Assembly, described me as one of the pen prophets in Nigeria and included humble me amongst the columnists he reads regularly. I can’t thank him enough for the extra-special lengths he went to make my book launch a huge success. To whom much is given, much is certainly expected. To qualify to be a prophet means most if not all my prophecies must be as accurate as possible. This is the main reason I have decided to project into the future again, and once more tell our President the truth cronies will never tell him and his kitchen cabinet.

It is obvious that the ruling party is now enmeshed in a peculiar mess (apologies to the great young Ibadan politician of old, Adegoke Adelabu of Penkelemesi fame), almost far worse than what happened under the government of President Goodluck Jonathan. What that means is that if elections were held today, the figures wouldn’t add up for Mr President in particular. I will try to explain this simple unpalatable fact, but unacceptable reality nonetheless, in a short moment. What I’m trying to say without any equivocation or doubt or fear of contradiction is that President Muhammadu Buhari should not take it for granted that he would easily coast home to victory like he did in 2015, bearing in mind that his margin of victory was the smallest since the Fourth Republic began in 1999.

In the days of President Jonathan in power, you needed some knowledge of Additional Mathematics combined with Algebra to unravel the political permutations but not anymore. Today, your knowledge need not go beyond elementary Arithmetic. Any discerning mind can see very clearly that the present ruling party APC is already in disarray and being held precariously together by a thin thread of government patronage and fear of almighty EFCC amid the nebulous concept of probity and anti-corruption that the government has been bandying about. God knows that as we inch closer and closer to the next general elections, the President would see giant monsters jumping out of the closets that he felt were very empty and squeaky clean. By then it might be too late to salvage the situation because he is likely to have become a veritable lame duck with very few willing to do is bidding because they think he is on his way out.

It is incredible how man, as mere mortal, often forgets the past so soon. No one needs to travel too far to discover the danger lurking around the corner for the President and his ruling party. But it seems everyman likes to believe whatever lies he is told by those who should, ordinarily, be his guardian angels. I have had the chance of speaking directly to a few of the principal actors and forewarned them about the tragedy to come but I’m not sure the falcon is listening to the falconer.If it is, we are having a hard time and difficult job hearing what is being said!

If you’re on social media, you’ll feel very sorry for our dear beloved country. The war between, and inside, the different political parties is unbelievable. While the leaders meet regularly, the gba-ran-mi-delerus (busybodies) are abusing themselves slavishly, foolishly and without decorum. Everyone they disagree with is a looter, a corrupt man, a wailer and a hater – Lord-have-mercy on poor souls. What the fanatical supporters of this government fail to realise is that it is becoming almost an impossibility for the Federal Government to lock down four out of our six regions that it needs to if it must retain the Presidency. Even at the height of his popularity, Baba couldn’t win elections three consecutive times before the 2015 elections. Not much has changed from the political realities of that period. The ‘Change’ factor of 2015, which saw the amalgamation and consolidation of diverse strange bed-fellows has long since shown its true colours as merely a house of wafer thin pack of cards! It is remarkable that the grand alliance many saw as the pathway to a bright and glorious future has been blown away without even a tempest or typhoon.The sad truth is that there is virtually no region today where APC is not embattled, in some regions, it even appears as if it is in its death throes.

The arguments of many APC die-hards include the fact that APC won the controversial gubernatorial election in Ekiti State. While I congratulate my dear friend, Dr Kayode Fayemi, on his hard won and well-deserved victory, given his qualifications, capabilities and antecedents, APC should not assume it would easily replicate the same feat at the Federal level and at a general election. Any discerning mind would have known that the Federal might would play a critical role in the Ekiti State election. When I predicted the outcome of that election and how the scenario would play out, one young man working for Governor Peter Fayose rained venom and invectives on me like a rabid dog. Today the barking man has not uttered as much as a whimper. Such is the debilitating power of defeat.

Let me now explain why it may not be so easy for President Buhari to play the Ekiti game nationally. It was said that about 30,000 police officers were drafted to maintain law and order in Ekiti State at the just concluded elections. I leave, for another day, the issues surrounding raging questions about how and where the government found the funding, capacity and willingness to deploy such humongous human and material security forces and equipment to a small State like Ekiti State in the wake of the ravaging Boko Haram menace, the rampaging herdsmen and the riotous militants. One would have thought that a nation afflicted with the security nightmare that insurgency, militancy and terrorism presents would not deem fit to deploy such military and police might for electioneering purposes when these terrible scourges are consuming the land.I suppose, the government considers winning elections and staying in power as much more important than the lives and security of the people they swore to protect when they assumed office. Whatever the reason, we saw what must be the largest possible example of the militarisation of a State since independence. That really is the point.Can this be sustained at the Federal level for the upcoming Presidential and gubernatorial elections? I doubt it. I give my reasons below.

The entire work force of the Nigerian Police is not more than about 300,000 personnel. With 30,000 police deployed to one state alone means about 10% of the work force being deployed to that State.Ekiti is one of the smallest States in the Federation, and there are 36 States and a Federal Capital Territory (FCT). Even if only 15,000 policemen were deployed to Ekiti State and there was a desire to do this at the national level for the Presidential elections, only 20 out of 36 States and the FCT would be covered.This would leave a shortfall of 16 States. If we take the Ekiti State example and deploy 30,000 per State, only 10 States would be covered.This would also mean that for the duration, the entire police force would only be dealing with elections. Open season indeed for crooks, criminals and terrorists! To be frank the question for the young student of arithmetic is where then would the government find such number of police per State to assemble, and possibly manipulate, to achieve pre-determined goals?

Depending on who the candidate of the PDP is, I’m certain, APC will find it difficult to have its past grip on the Northern Region. Contrary to the belief that President Buhari enjoys cult-followership in the North, the reality is that this is not the case and that this aphorism cannot stand any casual scrutiny not to mention rigorous examination.The ill-concealed fact is that the President is perceived to have such a cult following because of the outcome of the 2015 Presidential elections when the President won massively in the Northern part of Nigeria.

However, the perception falls flat on its face when you examine the previous elections before 2015 critically. It is clear that the President did well in the North in those past elections, but the truth is that PDP did just as well. On a comparative basis in those previous elections, the President did a lot better this time around. What changed? As simplistic as it may sound, it was the ‘CHANGE’ mantra that made the difference.Significantly, people came together to work for President Buhari to emerge. It was not a solitary effort or lone victory!It was the victory of the people. Hitherto strong PDP enclaves suddenly saw President Buhari as the person who would bring them out of the doldrums and improve their lot. They supported him not because of what he stood for, or his person, but because they were weary and tired of the Jonathan government and its many acts of impunity, financial recklessness and brazen kleptocracy by senior government officials who did not have the welfare of the Nigerian masses at their heart.Indeed, the choice before Nigeria in 2015 was stark!It was either Jonathan or Buhari. And Nigerians did not want Jonathan much more than a case of wanting Buhari. We are at the same threshold now.

In truth, the PDP has traditionally been a Northern Party per se and it still commands substantial support in that area of the country.I keep saying that had President Jonathan been able to garner half the number of those who supported him in the North in the 2011 elections what we are saying today would not have been the story!A different reality would have been upon us.President Jonathan won in 2011 not because the North liked him personally, but because the North wanted to vote with PDP as it has been wont to do for many generations! PDP is beginning to learn its lesson and it is starting to make amends. The Party is no longer flaunting its greatly curtailed power. Its officers and Party faithfuls no longer take anything for granted.They know they must work hard to overcome the prejudices and biases of the people against them. They now appreciate that there is no certainty in politics. That realisation, which the APC appears to have had in 2015, is what the APC of 2018 now seems to be lacking. At the rate members are deserting APC in droves, it is only a matter of time before things fall apart completely.

The PDP will certainly field a Northerner to neutralise whatever might be the Buhari effect. This person would be certain to be heavily backed by other aspirants who may not get the party ticket. It is not likely that Buhari can overwhelmingly take over the North Central and North East this time around.Even in the North West, landslide victor is not assured.Every little whittling of the Buhari numbers from the 2015 elections diminishes his overall tally and makes him a sitting duck.

The promises made by APC would also be under critical scrutiny and those not kept would become subjects of public ridicule and odium. The Southern parts have become nearly no go zones, especially in the South South and South East.The South West is the only part where the President and APC may garner something a bit sizable from the Southern parts with the help of Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the South West Governors. That is why Ekiti State suddenly became a do-or-die affair.The desperation was palpable, and victory had to be rammed down the throat of the electorate by all means, by hook or crook, by fire, by force! However, the use of force won’t work this time around, not least because the numbers just don’t add up and there is not enough manpower on the ground to replicate the Ekiti State debacle.

With the margin of victory in Ekiti State so slim and wafer thin, despite the massive security apparatus and personnel deployed to enforce a victory, it appears that the game is up! The numbers game may have finally caught up with the President. Something overtly drastic has to be attempted and done to turn things around positively.

Time will surely tell!

Headline

Peter Obi Confirms Defection from ADC, Blames Toxicity, Lack of Solidarity

Published

20 hours ago

May 3, 2026

Eric

Candidate of Labour Party in the last Presidential election, Mr. Peter Obi, has confirmed that he is on his way out of the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

In a personally signed statement released on Sunday, Obi said he arrived at the decision after deep reflection, describing the move as necessary despite “every constraint.”

“I woke up this morning after my church service with a deeply reflective heart… and felt compelled to share these thoughts,” he wrote, adding that many people do not understand the “silent pains” and private struggles faced by those trying to serve in Nigeria’s political space.

Obi painted a grim picture of the current political climate, describing it as increasingly hostile and discouraging.

“We now live in an environment that has become increasingly toxic, where the very system that should protect and create opportunities… often works against the people,” he said, pointing to intimidation, insecurity, and persistent scrutiny as defining features of the system.

The former Anambra State governor also expressed disappointment over what he described as a lack of solidarity, even among close associates.

“Some who publicly identify with you privately distance themselves or join in unfair criticism,” he noted, lamenting that humility is often misinterpreted as weakness, while compassion is seen as foolishness.

Obi, however, clarified that his decision was not driven by personal grievances against key leaders within the party. He specifically exonerated ADC National Chairman, David Mark, and former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, saying neither treated him unfairly.

“Let me state clearly: my decision to leave the ADC is not because our highly respected Chairman… treated me badly, nor because… Atiku Abubakar, or any other respected leaders did anything personally wrong to me,” he said.

Instead, Obi attributed his exit to what he described as a recurrence of the same challenges that plagued his time in the Labour Party, including internal divisions, legal battles, and external interference.

“The same Nigerian state and its agents that created unnecessary crises… now appear to be finding their way into the ADC, with endless court cases, internal battles, suspicion, and division,” he stated.

He further lamented that sincere contributions are often undervalued, with individuals becoming scapegoats for broader systemic failures.

“Even within spaces where one labours sincerely, one is sometimes treated like an outsider… as though honest contribution has become a favour being tolerated rather than appreciated,” Obi added.

Despite stepping away, the former governor said he continues to face criticism and attacks on his character, even as he seeks to pursue national development with sincerity.

Reflecting on Nigeria’s broader challenges, Obi questioned societal values that, according to him, often misinterpret integrity and prudent management of resources.

“Why is doing the right thing often misconstrued as wrongdoing in our country? Why is integrity not valued?” he asked.

Obi reiterated that his ambition is not driven by a quest for political office but by a desire to see a better Nigeria.

“I am not desperate to be President… I am desperate to see a society that can console a mother whose child has been kidnapped or killed,” he said, highlighting issues of insecurity, poverty, and displacement.

He concluded on a hopeful note, affirming his belief in Nigeria’s potential for transformation.

“Yet, despite everything, I remain resolute. I firmly believe that Nigeria can still become a country with competent leadership based on justice, compassion, and equal opportunity for all,” he said.

“A new Nigeria is possible.”

Source: Daily Trust

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Peter Obi Weeps for Nigerian Workers, Says Minimum Wage Can no Longer Guarantee Modest Living

Published

2 days ago

May 2, 2026

Eric

A frontline presidential aspirant on the platform of the opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC), Peter Obi, has regretted that the minimum wage can no longer guarantee a most modest standard of living in Nigeria.

In a post on his X handle on Friday to mark Workers’ Day, the former Governor of Anambra State said this has happened as inflation, rising food prices, transportation costs, and economic hardship continue to erode the value of honest work.

He said no nation can truly develop beyond the strength, productivity, and wellbeing of its workforce, stressing that the progress of any society rests on the quality of its human capital, the skill of its people, and the commitment of its workers.

‘When workers suffer, the nation suffers. When workers are empowered, the nation prospers,” he noted.

The presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP) in the 2023 general elections said a productive nation must be built on justice, fairness, and respect for labour, adding that “it is the Nigeria we must work together to achieve.”

Obi said through democratic participation, the Nigerian workers have the power to shape governance and determine the future direction of the nation.

He, therefore, urged Nigerian workers to recognise the strength they hold collectively.

“But beyond their labour, workers also possess another powerful tool, their voice and their vote.

“They owe it to themselves, their children, and future generations to support and demand leadership built on competence, character, capacity, credibility, and compassion. By refusing to reward failure, corruption, ethnic division, and bad governance, they can help build a nation where hard work is respected and rewarded with dignity.

“With the support and participation of Nigerian workers, a new Nigeria is possible,” said Obi.

He saluted workers across the world, especially Nigerian workers whose daily sacrifices continue to sustain our families, communities, institutions, and national economy in the face of severe hardship and uncertainty.

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Attorney-General Asks Court to Deregister ADC, Accord, Three Other Parties

Published

4 days ago

April 30, 2026

Eric

The Attorney-General of the Federation has urged the Federal High Court in Abuja to compel the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to deregister five political parties, arguing that their continued existence violates constitutional provisions and undermines Nigeria’s electoral integrity.

In court filings, the Attorney General contended that unless the court intervenes, INEC would “continue to act in breach of its constitutional duty” by retaining parties that have failed to meet the minimum requirements prescribed by law.

The filing stressed that the right to associate as a political party is not absolute and must be exercised within constitutional limits. It further argued that it is in the interest of justice for the court to grant the reliefs sought by the plaintiffs.

The suit, marked FHC/ABJ/CS/2637/2026 and filed at the Abuja Judicial Division of the Federal High Court, lists the Incorporated Trustees of the National Forum of Former Legislators as the plaintiff.

The defendants include INEC as the first defendant and the Attorney General of the Federation as the second defendant, alongside five political parties: African Democratic Congress (ADC), Action Alliance (AA), Action Peoples Party (APP), Accord (A), and Zenith Labour Party (ZLP).

At the center of the issue in the case is whether INEC has a constitutional obligation to remove parties that fail to meet electoral performance thresholds set out in Section 225A of the 1999 Constitution (as amended) and reinforced by the Electoral Act 2022 and INEC’s own regulations.

The plaintiffs argue that the affected parties have persistently failed to satisfy the constitutional benchmarks required to retain their registration. These include winning at least 25 per cent of votes in a state during a presidential election or securing at least one elective seat at the national, state or local government level.

They contend that the parties performed poorly in the 2023 general elections and subsequent by-elections, failing to win seats across key tiers of government, yet continue to be recognised by INEC as eligible political platforms.

The plaintiffs maintain that this continued recognition is unlawful and undermines the integrity of Nigeria’s electoral system.

In the affidavit supporting the suit, the forum’s national coordinator, Igbokwe Raphael Nnanna, states that allowing parties that have not met constitutional requirements to remain on the register “is unconstitutional, illegal and a violation” of the governing legal framework.

The suit asks the court to declare that INEC is duty-bound to deregister such parties and to compel the commission to do so before preparations for the 2027 elections advance further.

Beyond declaratory reliefs, the plaintiffs are also seeking far-reaching orders that would bar the affected parties from participating in the next general elections or engaging in political activities such as campaigns, rallies and primaries. They further request injunctions restraining INEC from recognising or dealing with the parties in any official capacity unless and until they comply strictly with constitutional provisions.

Central to the plaintiffs’ argument is their interpretation of the law as imposing a mandatory duty on INEC. They argue that the use of the word “shall” in the Constitution leaves no room for discretion once a party fails to meet the stipulated thresholds.

In their written address, they rely on statutory provisions and judicial precedents to contend that electoral performance is an objective condition that must be enforced to maintain discipline, transparency, and accountability in the political system.

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