Opinion
Etymology Of Atiku Abubakar As Stepping Stone For Igbo Presidency
Published
3 years agoon
By
Eric
By Magnus Onyibe
As it may be recalled ,a great deal of verbal missiles were hauled at Anambra state governor and former Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN governor, Professor Chukwuma Charles Soludo when he contended in a recently published article titled: ”History Beckons And I shall Not Be Silent (Part1)”, that nobody from the lgbo nation has a chance of becoming president of Nigeria in 2023.
“Let’s be clear: Peter Obi knows that he can’t and won’t win. He knows the game he is playing, and we know too; and he knows that we know. The game he is playing is the main reason he didn’t return to APGA. The brutal truth (and some will say, God forbid) is that there are two persons/parties seriously contesting for president: the rest is exciting drama!“
The masterpiece by Soludo was a realistic and pragmatic analysis of what l would like to characterize as the ‘lgbo dilemma’.
Whereas the frank advise should have woken up the lgbo from what can be likened to a fantastic wonderland dream of presiding over the affairs of our country from Aso Rock Villa in 2023,instead it got a good number of them so incensed that the level of bile directed in rebuke at Soludo was as if he committed some kind of heresy or apostasy.
In order for readers to better understand the anger of the lgbos against Soludo or any other lgbo man or woman who does not subscribe to lgbo presidency of Nigeria in 2023,it is important that we put into context the propelling force for their quest to occupy Aso Rock Villa when the incumbent president Mohammadu Buhari exits next year.
The truth is that the anger of the lgbo that culminated into the vitriolic attacks on Soludo stems from the over half of a millennium years old determination of the tribe to regain their lost pride and glory because they were at the commanding heights of the political, economic and social architecture of Nigeria, pre January 1966 coup by the military that resulted in the death of the first republic (1963-66) and the crash of the lgbo from power in practically all the spheres of life in our country.
Not satisfied with their loss of power, particularly of the political hue in the Nigerian nation, the lgbo sought self determination by engaging the Nigerian state in a civil war from 1967 to 1970 when the country failed to allow her secede.
But at the end of the war rather than achieve their objective of returning to the pre-eminent position that they had occupied pre independence or before the British colonialist exited by granting Nigeria independence from colonial rule in 1960,the region got worse off.
That is simply because a significant number of lives of lgbo people got dispatched prematurely to the meet their ancestors, just as the infrastructure in the eastern region got wantonly destroyed in the course of the horrific war and the situation has not changed much till date.
In addition, the lgbo who lost the war have thereafter become systematically relegated to the bottom or even gotten excluded from the main stream of the political system in Nigeria.
And that is evidenced by the reality that currently, the leadership power equation in the only country that the lgbo can call their own seem to have been skewed against them as none of them is the head of the executive, legislative or judicial arms of government which is largely responsible for the enduring secessionist tendencies currently bedeviling the region in particular, and the whole country at large.
Arising from the above, and being a realist, l would argue that Soludo’s pragmatic assessment of the chances of an lgbo man/woman becoming president of Nigeria in 2023 as he marshaled in his published treatise: “History Beckons And I Shall Not Be Silent (part 1) was on point.
But lgbo appear not to be ready to accept the inconvenient truth, hence Soludo’s advise was discountenanced and he was disparaged and excoriated.
Before the Anambra governor’s matter-of-fact advise that elicited the ire of some lgbo that generated the firestorm that almost literally consumed him, another prominent lgbo politician, Senator Orji Uzor Kalu, the current Chief Whip of Nigerian Senate and ex governor of Abia state had also admonished members of his tribe not to seek to become president of Nigeria in 2023.
Below are his reasons:
“I have no problem with an Ibo man becoming president, but we have to do it with other Nigerians.
“If you don’t do it with other Nigerians, it’s not going to work, no matter how popular you are. This is the president of Nigeria, not the president of Igbo land.”
He was quoted as basically stating that the lgbo must wait for another time when Nigerians would agree to zone the presidency to the east.
It is unsurprising that Kalu’s renunciation of lgbo presidency in 2023 did not trigger as much storm as Soludo’s admonishment which l would like to equate politically with an event recorded in the holy Bible ‘Sermon on the Mount’ which is a narrative of the teachings by our lord Jesus Christ during which he laid out the blue print of his doctrine to be followed by his disciples after he must have transformed from the physical into the spiritual realms.
As the Muslim religion has Abrahamic origins (Abraham is the source of Christianity, lslam and Judaism) which is why lslam recognizes Jesus Christ as lsah – a prophet of God and not son of God which is the belief of we Christians, I won’t be surprised if our Muslim brothers and sisters can identify an equivalent of such narrative in the holy Quran.
According to John R.W. Stott, “The Sermon on the Mount is probably the best-known part of the teaching of Jesus, though arguably it is the least understood, and certainly it is the least obeyed”.
So, Soludo’s solution which sounded like sermon on the mount obviously struck the wrong chord amongst not only some lgbo elites, but also a critical mass of of the hoi poloi who are perhaps living in a parallel universe and as such unable to process the reality that it is not yet time for the lgbo to call the shots from Aso Rock Villa, and the reason the visionary Soludo was largely misunderstood in the manner that Jesus Christ was also misunderstood and disobeyed. For the avoidance of doubt, l am not equating Soludo with our lord Jesus Christ but sermon on the mount was referenced for analogical purpose only.
Perhaps, if the lgbos take the statistics below into consideration, they would probably have a different reaction to Soludo’s wise counsel.
For instance, the total number of registered voters for the 2023 general elections in Nigeria according to lndependent National Electoral Commission, INEC is 93.5 million.
And the total number of registered voters in the entire lgbo land is a paltry 11.49 million.
That makes the eastern region the zone with the least number of registered voters.
It is followed from the rear by the north central with 14.1 million voters.
When you compare the south-east registered voters numbers which is about half of the 22.67 million registered voters in the north-west region that is the highest,it would be clear that the eastern region is a dwarf or Lilliputian politically compared to the north-west which is a giant ,since it has the largest registered voters cache in our country.
And that makes the north-west the battle ground for all the leading political parties and the south-east a less consequential part of the country for sourcing votes by politicians and therefore on the fringe in the reckoning of political strategists.
Given the scenario described above, those clamoring for lgbo presidency should also take notice of the fact that Wazirin Atiku Abubakar of PDP is from the northern region where the bulk of the voters reside,and it presupposes that he has a home base advantage.
Also by juxtaposing the south east minuscule and insignificant number of registered voters against that of the south-west region which is 18.3 million,the eastern region’s jeopardy would come into greater relief.
More so ,if it dawns on the proponents of lgbo presidency in 2023 that the south-west is also APC torch bearer Bola Tinubu’s enclave and supporters base.
But the Igbos driven by ethnic nationalism are wont to argue that members of the tribe being itinerant people are spread all over Nigeria.
As such their voting power is more than the 11.49 million ascribed to the zone.
But so are members of other major tribes scattered across the country -Yoruba,Hausa/Fulani ,ljaw, kanuri,Tiv, kalabari,Urhobo,ldoma and lbibio,lgbira,lgala,Angas etc.
Perhaps,other ethnic nationalities outside their ancestral birth places are not as many as the lgbos that are challenged by land mass and are also very mercantile,hence they are very dispersed nationwide,but a lot Nigerians of all tribes are often well dispersed across the country too.
Another dilemma that the lgbo nation is contending with in its quest for the presidency of Nigeria is the fact that, of the six (6) geopolitical zones in Nigeria, only the south east where the lgbo is the dominant tribe is comprised of a mere five (5) states.
The zone has the least number of states because all the other five (5) regions have at least six (6) states each, with the north west region even having seven (7) states.
The realities above are the major handicaps that should compel the lgbo to seek collaborations with with either north-west or south-west regions where the critical mass of voters are located,in order for their dream that a member of lgbo ethnic stock would become president of Nigeria would manifest.
But rather than think critically,they have been fantasizing about an lgbo person becoming president of Nigeria in 2023 without taking into consideration the political calculus or equations outlined above.
Can those claiming that political structures would not matter in election 2023 also deny the fact that the number of registered voters in specific regions of the candidates would count, and a consequential presidential candidate must have a solid voter base ?
Yet, most politically naive lgbo have elected to remain in self denial by being sentimental instead of analytical.
Without looking beneath the inherent superficialities, they are counting on votes from the youth demography and those who are discontented with government either due to a prevailing culture of nepotism or insecurity of lives and properties as well as the high level of poverty ravaging the masses under the watch of the current administration to catapult an lgbo man into the presidency.
There is not enough space and time to put in array all the thistles and thorns that have buffeted Nigerians in the nearly eight (8) years of APC maladministration. But suffice it to say that while those ignoble hallmarks of misrule are significant factors that can influence some voters to desire to punish the ruling party at the polls,they are not enough to swing the presidential pendulum to the side of the lgbos because the region lacks the critical mass of voters and failed to secure an alliance with a high voters value like north-west or south-west.
Worse still, since it has been established that most Nigerian registered voters reside in the north-west and south-west, it follows that they seldom know Peter Obi and the LP platform.
More so because Obi and LP were basically unknown quantities nationally, until less than a year ago when the political platform and its candidate became a third force in 2023 presidential race that was hitherto looking like a two horse race.
To gain better insight, apart from Obi not having a political base like Atiku that practically has the entire north glued together by not only his robust political pedigree but religion and language; and Tinubu that controls the south-west leveraging his long time political antecedents, well funded political machines and the monarchical system existent in Yoruba land, readers only need to interrogate the voting pattern of Nigerians as captured in INEC’s historical records to discover that the category of the electorate that exercise their franchise the most are folks in the rural areas.
They are not the necessarily the smattering of youth and city slickers who are clamoring for Obi presidency and a handful of discontented adults seeking a new political order.
The category of Nigerians described above are not whom the lgbo nation should anchor their hope of being the tribe ruling the roost in Aso Rock Villa in 2023.
For crying out loud,most of our mothers, fathers,aunts and uncles in the villages are the ones who often step out to vote in throngs and they hardly know Peter Obi.
And they were likely not captured in the opinion polls,particularly the ANAP/NOI polling of which the pollsters have admitted they conducted by phone which by its nature is prone to manipulation therefore deeply flawed.
It is unfortunate that the pollsters seem to be ignoring those factors outlined earlier, either by omission or commission, hence they have ended up with their wrong calculations and false hope about the notion of lgbo producing the next president being a realizable objective without serious collaboration or alliance with voters from any of the two main zones (north-West and south-west) that are home to significant number of voters.
Had the attempted partnership between the LP and Dr Musa Kwakwanso’s New Nigerian Peoples Party, NNPP come into fruition with Obi as the presidential candidate of the coalition, the probability of an lgbo president in 2023 would have been higher. But without such an arrangement, Obi’s quest for the presidency would most likely be an exercise in futility.
The above reality is the justification for the recent comment by a prominent lgbo billionaire and power broker, Chief Arthur Eze who reportedly stated in the media, last week, the 24th of December that he had made it known to the LP Presidential candidate, Peter Obi that his ambition is inordinate was emphatic that he is not part of Obi’s plan.
“I told him to drop his ambition, and wait for next time. “When he told me about his ambition, l asked him the states he thinks he can win in the west and in the north -he told me, but l was not convinced. l told him he can not win; so that he would not waste his time and money”
Incidentally, in various opinion pieces that l have been writing and publishing in the mass media in the past two years, l had already identified and analyzed all the bogeys or stumbling blocks clogging the path of the lgbo man’s quest for becoming president of Nigeria without being propelled by the presently moribund presidential power rotation or power shift principle. They can all be found in my website magnum.ng.
By obviously ignoring the wise counsel of critical lgbo stake holders like Chukwuma Soludo and Arthur Eze, as referenced earlier, clearly Mr Obi must be relying on opinion polls that have been forecasting that president Buhari would be handing over to him as his successor on 29 May 2023.
Another probable factor which may be at play for the lgbo (with Obi as the arrow head) to be nursing the false hope that they would be producing the next president would be that his strategists are likely working from the answer to the question, instead of the other way round.
Equally significant is the rather surprising revelation that the lgbo are still counting on the presidential power rotation principle which is a gentle man’s agreement hashed out during the unimplemented National Conference held under former military head of state, late general SANNI Abacha’s regime in 1995. It was basically a political power sharing formula that is still being relied upon by the lgbo to justify its claim that it is the turn of some of their ethnic stock to rule Nigeria.
That principle which is not enshrined in Nigeria’s statutes book has been jettisoned or at best suspended by both the ruling All Progressives Party, APC and main opposition peoples Democratic party, PDP, yet the lgbo appear to have remained fixated on it and seem not ready to purge themselves of the mind set.
Given the present dynamics of politics in Nigeria, only the APC or PDP are the political platforms that can produce the president of Nigeria.
And the lgbo is unfortunate that the two parties have no member of the stock as their presidential flag bearer.
So the chance of an lgbo man taking charge in Aso Rock Villa from 29 May 2023 is practically zero.
The conclusion above does not imply that l have not taken cognizance of the recent emergence of Labor Party, LP as a third (3rd) force in Nigeria’s political space with Mr Peter Obi, former Anambra state governor on the platform of APGA 2007-2014 who was also in 2019 the running mate to Wazirin Atiku Abubakar as presidential flag bearer on the platform of PDP which contested against incumbent president, Mohammadu Buhari of APC.
But, since it is an inconvenient truth for the typical lgbo man that has been seeking to return to the top of the pecking order of leadership of Nigeria resulting in a destructive three (3) years civil war that is believed to have claimed the lives of an estimated three (3) million Nigerians with the lgbos as the main victims, Soludo’s kinsmen who are apparently blind sided by their legitimate, but unrealizable ambition, have chosen to deem the realistic prognosis as an art of betrayal of his people for which he was ‘roasted ‘by lgbo intelligentsia, especially the social media denizens, also known as Obidients and architects of the famous #Endsars protests that had the potentials of revolutionizing Nigeria in 2020.
Fortuitously, Wazirin Atiku Abubakar has emerged on the scene like a knight in a shining amour to offer the lgbo the rescue that they have been craving by giving them the opportunity via his current quest for the presidency for one of them to be his running mate as vice president.
By so doing he is according the lgbos the honor and privilege of being the stepping stone for lgbo nation into Aso Rock Villa: “I am going to be a stepping stone to an Igbo president in this country. I have shown it in my action, because this is the third time I am running with an Igbo man. If you really want to produce a president, then, vote Atiku-Okowa ticket.”
Having established the etymology (in plain language the origin) of the words stepping stone deployed by Wazirin Atiku Abubakar in his lofty proposition to Ndigbo,it is fitting that we interrogate or take a cursory look at the emotional quotient that the lgbo nation has invested in accomplishing its mission to occupy the number position in Aso Rock Villa.
The emotional feelings that are oftentimes elicited by an lgbo person not becoming president of Nigeria is so potent that when current lmo state governor, Chief Hope Uzodinma of APC via a political abracadabra (controversial court ruling) supplanted, Emeka Ihedioha of the PDP who had earlier been declared winner and sworn into office as lmo state governor; and Uzodinma in trying to take control of the state that was originally largely PDP as governor on APC platform, reportedly called in the military to keep the peace, all was let loose.
That decision to call in the military that was necessitated by the rising spate of violence and break down of law and order in the state, resulted in Uzodinma’s country home being set ablaze with all the appurtenances including a Rolls Royce car burnt down.
Having taken into consideration the above circumstances, as far back as two (2) years ago, l had been writing a series of articles with the aim of averting the minds of lgbo people to the rough road that it has to travel to get into Aso Rock Villa in 2023 and l had pointed out that it was a mission impossible without presidential rotation principle being upheld.
And I had long arrived at the conclusion because it is simply mathematically impossible for an lgbo person to become President of Nigeria without having a prolific political base and aligning with people from the north-west or south-west of Nigeria to make it happen.
Mr Peter Obi, incidentally is from the south-east which is a politically disadvantaged region probably as a consequence of the civil war triggered by the decision of lgbo leadership at that time to secede in 1967-barely six (6) years after Nigeria’s independence and three (3) years after becoming a republic.
Worse still, the south-east can not be said to have a political base, simply because there is no evidence that he is enjoying the sympathy of any of the main or even fringe political parties or incumbent governors-from Anambra, Enugu, lmo ,Ebonyi to Abia states.
Yes, he has the backing of the lgbo social-cultural group Ohaneze Ndigbo, but it is not a political machine, but a mere sociocultural platform. In fact, it is as impotent politically as Afenifere in Yoruba land and Arewa in Hausa/Fulani part of our country. Incidentally, Afenifere in the south-west, touting its forthrightness is in sympathy with lgbo and therefore in support of Obi in his vaulting ambition.
But l wonder how the sociocultural group can harness Yoruba votes for the LP and its presidential candidate.
Do the lgbo have legitimate and justifiable reasons to jostle for the presidency of Nigeria?
The answer is in the affirmative.
That prospect would more than any policy of government enable them get reintegrated into Nigerian nation after the civil war fought, won and lost some fifty two (52) years ago.
But as things currently stand, only an Atiku Abubakar presidency with lgbo man as vice president is the out-of-the-box thinking formula that can make it happen.
It is disappointing that the so called three (3 Rs) Reconstruction, Reconciliation and Reintegration of the lgbo into the Nigerian nation which is a policy introduced by the general Yakubu Gowon regime that prosecuted and won the war (1967-70) has been largely implemented in breach. That is one of the reasons that the polarizing fault lines of division have been widening and amplifying the exclusion of lgbo in the political leadership of our beloved country at the centre due to actions and inactions of the incumbent regime which is exactly why the separatist sentiments of the easterners have persisted.
Having laid the foundation for the establishment of the proposition that Wazirin Atiku Abubakar would be the stepping stone for lgbo presidency, l would like to crave the indulgence of readers to allow me republish a relevant portion of one of the several articles that l wrote and first published nearly two years ago in both traditional and online media platforms titled: ”Nigeria Presidency 2023: Where Are The lgbo Candidates”
Here we go.
“The political inactivity in lgbo land with respect to the presidency of Nigeria in 2023 is quite the opposite of the preparatory activities towards the forthcoming November 6, governorship election which both president Buhari and lNEC chairman, Mahmood Yakubu have vowed must hold on schedule, despite the IPOB threat.
Somehow, the quartet of Andy Uba of APC, Val Ozigbo of PDP, Chukwuma Soludo of APGA, and Ifeannyi Uba of YPP representing the main political parties have been ramping up their campaigns.
Given the scenario above, and if the lgbo are really not politicking for the presidency like their Yoruba and Hausa/Fulani counterparts, (which is evident by the reality on ground) the prospect of lgbo presidency in 2023 that may already be in peril, needs to be given a shot-in-the-arm through a strategic partnership that would provide required political structures and financial muscle .
That is what informed my proposal in the earlier referenced article: “How To Become The President Of Nigeria ln 2023”that the lgbo should align with Atiku Abubakar as PDP presidential candidate in 2023 to achieve the dream of lgbo presidency in 2027.
My proposal is underscored by the belief that it would be unlikely that the former Vice President Atiku Abubakar who has become a veteran in presidential contests since 1992 with enormous practical experience , would seek for re-election in 2027, if elected president in 2023 via an lgbo alliance and PDP support.
Unless other northern contenders like Aminu Tambuwal or Bala Mohammed are willing to serve only one term and hand over to an lgbo Vice President, which is a highly unlikely scenario simply because of their relatively young age compared to the former Vice President who would be 75 years next month, lgbo quest for the presidency of Nigeria may remain a mirage.
In my view, a partnership with Atiku Abubakar as a pathway to Aso Rock Villa remains the most viable trajectory for an lgbo man/woman to become president of Nigeria in 2027 on PDP platform .That is because, Atiku Abubakar is liberal , broad minded, business savvy and has links by marriage to all the three major ethnic groups-Hausa/Fulani, Yoruba and lgbo in Nigeria. It implies that Atiku Abubakar presidency would likely be more inclusive than nepotistic-a trademark of the current government in power that is fueling the current gale of separatist movements.
The point being made here is that under Atiku Abubakar’s watch as president, separatism would be consigned to the dustbin as inclusiveness becomes a major policy plank in government. With inclusiveness becoming a centre point of public policy in Nigeria ,secessionist tendencies would die a natural death in the manner that Niger delta militancy ceased after the late president Umaru Yar’dua took strategic steps to stabilize the volatile region via his offer of Amnesty to former militants after meeting some of their demands.
The existential reality in Nigeria’s current political equation that is not balanced , no thanks to Fredrick Lugard.
That truth is that the lgbos need help to actualize their quest for the presidency of Nigeria. As Atilla the Hun advised “choose your enemies wisely and your friends carefully.”
It should be obvious to the average lgbo that they can not ascend the throne in Aso Rock Villa seat of power by themself as they lack the numerical strength and political tentacles . And they must accept that their mastery of business can not overnight be translated into the political savviness that is required for someone of lgbo extraction to become the number one(1 )citizen presiding over our country in Aso Rock Villa from 2023.
So an alliance with the former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar whose political fortune has been built since the time that he first contested against the late MKO Abiola in Social Democratic Party, SDP primaries held in 1992, remains the most viable political catapult that can propel the lgbo nation into Aso Rock Villa, after Alex Ekwueme’s partnership with Shehu Shagari for the presidency of Nigeria (1979-1983).
It is disappointing that Ekwueme’s vice presidency is the last time the lgbo enjoyed worthy political significance in a country that they have indisputable ancestry.
Frankly , without adopting or resorting to the application of the type of cold calculations that l am advocating, the lgbo’s demand for someone from their ethnic stock as number one occupant in Aso Rock Villa would very likely remain a mirage and mission impossible as it would continue to be elusive beyond 2023 and even 2027.
As a follow up article to “How To Become President Of Nigeria”, l wrote another piece titled : “A Citizen’s Guide on How To Become President of Nigeria” also published on the back page of Thisday newspaper on October 22,2021 and other mainstream newspapers, including Daily lndependence, Vanguard as well as online platforms. And the following points were brought to the attention of readers:
“Although presidential power play is largely about popularity, it also significantly utilizes conspiracies and alliances as the oxygen and blood for positioning popular candidates for victory in presidential polls.”
In light of the above reality, which ethnic nationality or nationalities in the Nigerian Union is the lgbo building alliance or conspiring with, overtly or covertly ? None”
So by and large what Chukwuma Soludo was literally clobbered on the head for saying, what had already been identified long ago in my articles before he articulated them more forcefully like a professor that he truly is. And before anybody levels a hasty and mischievous allegation of being anti lgbo against me, l implore readers to obtain and read my latest book : Becoming President of Nigeria. A Citizen’s Guide (May,2022)
A quarter of which is four (4) of the twelve (12) chapters tome is dedicated to making a case for lgbo presidency in 2023.
But after painstakingly identifying and interrogating the odds stacked against the lgbo nation in the present political structure of our country, l came to the conclusion that the most feasible pathway for the lgbo to ascend to the apogee of power in Aso Rock Villa soon is to quickly get on the PDP train and piggy-tail Wazirin Atiku Abubakar by ‘donating’ to him their votes in exchange for an lgbo person as vice Presidential candidate that would take over from him in four(4) years time,2027 when he completes his first tenure.
The lgbo leadership did not heed my nearly two years old advise and my brother, current delta state governor, Dr lfeanyi Okowa who saw the opportunity and could not resist it by letting it slip off, seized the moment.
And he has identified himself as an lgbo man and no one can deny him that identify.
As it is often with contestation for political power, Okowa did not wait to be given power, he seized it.
So the rest is now history.
Incidentally, before l made a case for the lgbo to make a beeline to the presidency via partnership with former vice president Atiku Abubakar, l never discussed it with him even though l have had the honor and privilege of knowing the Wazirin Adamawa over a long period of about two decades courtesy of my long association with my former boss and brother, ex governor of delta state (1999-2007) Chief James lbori who facilitated my sojourn into politics since 2003 as a commissioner in his cabinet.
It did not surprise me that my proposition for my lgbo brothers/sisters to hinge their mission to Aso Aso Rock Villa on Wazirin Atiku Abubakar’s presidency in 2023 was tagged by my friends and foes alike as ‘Magnus formula’ and of which l received more than a fair share of knocks by the same media mobs that tried to maul Professor Soludo for telling the lgbo nation the home truth.
About two (2) years after the idea was first mooted, I am delighted that the PDP presidential candidate, Wazirin Atiku’ Abubakar has finally validated my proposition made to the lgbos ‘several moons ago’ (as a typical lgbo person would put it) by personally making the pledge to them during his campaign stomp in Awka, Anambra state capital on 15 December,2023 that his presidency would be a stepping stone for lgbo presidency of Nigeria.
Again, leaning on or drawing from the legendary lgbo wittiness, ‘ndigbo now have the yam and the knife‘ and they can not pretend not to know what to do with the yam and knife.
And in case they have forgotten, Atiku Abubakar is providing the palm oil with which they can eat the yam after cutting for themselves a generous portion of it with the knife.
One thing that the lgbo must keep in the most critical part of their mind is that who they cast their votes for on 25 February next year can make or mar their chances of realizing their life long ambition to call the the shots in Aso Rock Villa.
And Wazirin Atiku Abubakar offers the best pathway.
Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, development strategist, alumnus of Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA and a former commissioner in Delta state government, sent this piece from lagos. To continue with this conversation, pls visit www.magnum.ng
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Opinion
Kano Deputy Governorship: Why Murtala Sule Garo is Most Deserving
Published
12 hours agoon
April 21, 2026By
Eric
By Abdullahi Sa’idu Baba (Hafizi)
One of the defining slogans of the Governor of Kano State is “Kano First,” a principle that emphasizes prioritizing the collective interest, development, and unity of Kano State above all else. In line with this vision, Hon. Murtala Sule Garo stands out as the most suitable candidate for the position of Deputy Governor. His track record reflects a history of diligent and selfless service to Kano State, marked by consistent dedication to grassroots development and people-oriented governance. Over the years, he has demonstrated an unwavering commitment to advancing the welfare of the people, making him a natural fit for a leadership role that demands loyalty, competence, and a deep understanding of Kano’s needs.
Throughout his time in office, Garo distinguished himself through people-oriented policies and impactful empowerment initiatives. He became widely known for implementing large-scale programs that directly improved the livelihoods of youth and women across Kano State. Thousands benefited from his initiatives, which included financial support, business tools, and opportunities for economic independence. These efforts not only reduced poverty at the grassroots level but also demonstrated his belief in inclusive governance ensuring that the dividends of democracy reach even the most remote communities. His approach earned him recognition as a leader who “takes government to the people,” a rare quality that continues to endear him to the masses.
Beyond empowerment, Garo’s leadership style is defined by accessibility, generosity, and responsiveness. He has consistently been described as a “man of the people,” someone who listens, engages, and responds without bias. His political strength lies in his deep-rooted connection with communities across Kano, where he has built trust over the years through direct engagement and consistent support. This grassroots network has become one of his greatest political assets, positioning him as a unifying figure capable of mobilizing support across different demographics and political divides.
In the evolving political landscape of Kano State, Murtala Sule Garo has emerged as a leading and widely endorsed candidate for the position of Deputy Governor. Recent political development shows that he enjoys overwhelming support not only from key stakeholders within the APC, but also from the generality of the grassroots Kano electorate, reflecting not only his political relevance but also the confidence party leaders and stakeholders have in his experience, loyalty, and leadership capacity.
Garo’s suitability for the role of Deputy Governor is further strengthened by his extensive experience in governance and party administration. Having served in multiple strategic positions, including organising roles, advisory capacities, and two consecutive terms as commissioner, he possesses both institutional knowledge and practical governance skills. His ability to navigate complex political structures while maintaining strong grassroots support makes him uniquely positioned to complement executive leadership and ensure stability in governance.
Looking ahead to future elections, Murtala Sule Garo’s political capacity remains one of his strongest advantages. He is widely regarded as a mobilizer who can energize the electorate, increase voter participation, and strengthen party unity. His influence at the ward and local government levels provides a strategic advantage for any administration he is part of, as he can effectively translate political goodwill into electoral success. Observers believe that his inclusion in leadership would not only consolidate party structures but also enhance governance outcomes through effective implementation of policies at the grassroots level.
Moreover, Garo represents a bridge between experience and youthful dynamism. His understanding of both traditional political structures and modern governance demands positions him as a forward-thinking leader capable of contributing meaningfully to Kano’s development agenda. His inclusive approach, engaging traditional rulers, youth groups, and stakeholders, suggests that he can foster a sense of collective ownership in governance, which is essential for sustainable development.
In conclusion, Hon. Murtala Sule Garo embodies the qualities of a competent administrator, a grassroots mobilizer, and a unifying political figure. His track record of service, empowerment, and community engagement presents a compelling case for his emergence as the next Deputy Governor of Kano State. With his proven ability to deliver results and connect with the people, he stands not only as a suitable candidate but as a strategic asset capable of driving progress, stability, and inclusive governance in Kano State’s future.
Abdullahi Sa’idu Baba (Hafizi) writes from Kano, and can be reached via Hafeeezsb@gmail.com
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Opinion
2027: Why Nigeria Can’t Afford to Lose Atiku’s Experience and Expertise
Published
4 days agoon
April 18, 2026By
Eric
By Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba
To be candid and straightforward, this article is written to sensitize Nigerians to the growing smear campaign against Atiku Abubakar, a campaign of calumny that appears less about national interest and more about political anxiety. The persistence and intensity of these attacks suggest one thing: there are powerful interests who see him not merely as a contender, but as a genuine threat. Yet, Nigerians are no longer easily distracted. The electorate is becoming more discerning, more interested in good governance.
Closely tied to this is the urgency of the 2027 presidential election. This is not just another electoral cycle, it may well represent a turning point in Nigeria’s history. Although Atiku Abubakar has confirmed 2027 to be his last presidential outing. That reality alone elevates the stakes. It presents Nigeria with a stark choice: to either harness a reservoir of experience at a critical moment or risk drifting further into uncertainty. In clear terms, 2027 is not just about political succession, it is about whether Nigeria recalibrates its direction or continues along a path of deepening national challenges.
The fundamental truth is that, experience and effective leadership are positively correlated, independent of age. Leadership in a complex state like Nigeria requires far more than youthful enthusiasm. It demands institutional memory, policy depth, negotiation skills, and the ability to manage crises with precision. It is therefore misguided to reduce leadership capability to age alone. Age neither guarantees competence nor invalidates it. Across the world, both young and elderly leaders have failed when they lacked the depth of experience required for governance. In Nigeria itself, recent experience with president Tinubu shows that leadership failure cannot be attributed to age alone. This underscores a critical point: the true dividing line between success and failure in leadership is not age, it is experience, particularly practical and relevant experience, which is too often overlooked.
Global political trends reinforce this reality. In the United States, voters returned Donald Trump to power over Kamala Harris, reflecting a preference for perceived experience over age. Figures such as Bernie Sanders remain influential well into their later years, shaping national discourse. Similarly, in Brazil, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva was elected again at an advanced age because voters trusted his tested capacity to lead during difficult times. A similar pattern recently played out in West Africa. In Liberia, the younger incumbent George Weah was defeated by the significantly older Joseph Boakai. That outcome was widely interpreted as a preference by Liberians for experience and not youthful appeal. These examples are not coincidences. They illustrate a consistent global pattern that when nations face uncertainty, they turn to experience. Nigeria must not waste the experience of Atiku Abubakar like it happened with remarkable figures like Obafemi Awolowo, Chief MKO Abiola and Malam Aminu Kano in the past.
Beyond the question of age lies another critical issue: political strategy. The debate over who should carry the opposition banner in 2027 must be guided by political reality. Nigeria’s recent history makes this abundantly clear. When Goodluck Jonathan sought re-election, the opposition were less influenced by sentiment. Instead, they made a strategic calculation, searching for a candidate with national reach and electoral strength, an idea that birthed Muhammadu Buhari as the opposition candidate, despite his previous electoral defeats.
It is therefore difficult to sustain the argument that Atiku Abubakar should be excluded on the basis that he has contested before. By that same reasoning, Buhari would never have emerged as a viable candidate. Political persistence is not a weakness; it is often a reflection of conviction, resilience, and determination. Elections are not won by novelty alone, they are won by structure, experience, and the ability to connect with a broad electorate.
Equally unconvincing is the argument that 2027 should be determined by zoning or that it is “still the turn of the South.” If the opposition is serious about unseating president Tinubu, it must prioritize a candidate with the experience, national appeal, and political structure required to achieve that goal. Atiku Abubakar is therefore the “asset” of the today. His eight years as Vice President under Olusegun Obasanjo provided him with deep exposure to governance, economic reform, and institutional development. Beyond public office, he is widely recognized as a seasoned politician and an established businessman with independent wealth, an important factor in a political environment often clouded by concerns about misuse of public resources.
Interestingly, it’s increasingly clear that Nigerians are moving beyond superficial narratives. The electorate is more focused on outcomes, on who can stabilize the economy, strengthen institutions, and restore confidence in governance. The conversation is shifting from age to ability, from rhetoric to results.
As 2027 approaches, the choice before Nigeria is becoming clearer. This is not a contest of personalities or a debate about generational symbolism. It is a question of capacity, preparedness, and national survival. History, both global and local, points in one direction: when experience is sidelined, nations pay the price.
Nigeria cannot afford that mistake again…
Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba writes from Kano, and can be reached via drssbaba@yahoo.com
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Opinion
Leadership As Decisive Force in Regional and Continental Security
Published
4 days agoon
April 18, 2026By
Eric
By Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD
“Security is not built by arms alone, but by the quality of leadership that turns shared vulnerability into collective strength, and divergent interests into common purpose.” – Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD
Abstract
In an era of complex transnational threats, effective regional and continental security hinges less on military capabilities or institutional frameworks and more on the quality of leadership. This article explores how visionary, adaptive, ethical, and inclusive leadership serves as the critical catalyst for transforming shared vulnerabilities into collective strength. Through in-depth case studies of ECOWAS in West Africa, the African Union’s African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA), and SADC in Southern Africa, alongside comparative insights from the European Union and ASEAN, it demonstrates that leadership determines whether security protocols remain aspirational or deliver tangible protection. The analysis highlights both successes and limitations, identifying key attributes of effective security leadership: strategic foresight, consensus-building, institutional coordination, and accountability. Ultimately, the article argues that investing in high-calibre leadership at every level is essential for building resilient, people-centred security systems capable of addressing contemporary challenges and contributing to a more stable global order.
Introduction
Effective regional and continental security depends far more on leadership than on military hardware, intelligence capabilities, or financial resources alone. Leadership supplies the vision, political will, strategic coherence, ethical foundation, and sustained commitment required to transform fragmented national efforts into unified, sustainable security outcomes. In an era marked by transnational threats — terrorism, organised crime, climate-induced conflicts, cyber vulnerabilities, irregular migration, and hybrid warfare — the quality of leadership at regional and continental levels determines whether security architectures deliver genuine protection or remain aspirational documents on paper.
The Indispensable Role of Leadership in Regional and Continental Security
Leadership in security contexts operates across multiple interconnected layers. At the strategic level, it involves setting a long-term vision that anticipates emerging threats and aligns collective resources before crises escalate. At the operational level, it demands the ability to coordinate institutions, mobilise resources, and execute joint actions efficiently. At the relational level, it requires building and maintaining trust among sovereign states with often competing interests, historical grievances, and differing priorities.
Effective leaders in this domain exhibit several critical attributes. They demonstrate visionary foresight, the capacity to read complex geopolitical and socio-economic trends and translate them into proactive strategies. They exercise adaptive decision-making, adjusting approaches as threats evolve while preserving core principles. They practise inclusive diplomacy, forging consensus without compromising sovereignty. Above all, they uphold ethical integrity and accountability, ensuring that security measures respect human rights and maintain public legitimacy. Without these qualities, even the most sophisticated security protocols risk becoming ineffective or counterproductive.
ECOWAS in West Africa: Leadership-Driven Collective Security
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), established in 1975 primarily as an economic integration body, has evolved into one of Africa’s most sophisticated and tested regional security mechanisms. This transformation was not inevitable but resulted from deliberate, courageous, and often pragmatic leadership in response to existential threats that threatened to engulf the entire sub-region.
The pivotal moment came in the early 1990s when Liberia descended into a devastating civil war. Faced with the risk of regional contagion, ECOWAS leaders, particularly Nigeria’s General Ibrahim Babangida and Ghana’s Jerry Rawlings, took the unprecedented step of creating the ECOWAS Monitoring Group (ECOMOG) in 1990 — Africa’s first sub-regional peacekeeping force. This was a bold departure from the Organisation of African Unity’s strict non-interference policy. ECOMOG’s interventions in Liberia (1990–1997) and Sierra Leone (1997–2000) prevented state collapse, contained the spread of conflict, and created political space for negotiated settlements and eventual democratic transitions.
Leadership played a pivotal role in these outcomes. Nigerian leadership provided the bulk of troops and financial resources, while Ghanaian President Jerry Rawlings offered critical diplomatic backing. The willingness of several heads of state to commit substantial national resources despite domestic criticism demonstrated a rare form of collective political will. These interventions also led to important institutional developments, including the 1999 Protocol Relating to the Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management, Resolution, Peacekeeping and Security, and later the 2008 ECOWAS Conflict Prevention Framework (ECPF).
In more recent years, ECOWAS leadership has continued to evolve. During the 2010–2011 post-election crisis in Côte d’Ivoire, ECOWAS applied sustained diplomatic pressure backed by the threat of military force, contributing significantly to the eventual restoration of constitutional order. In response to the rise of Boko Haram in the Lake Chad Basin and jihadist insurgencies in the Sahel, ECOWAS has strengthened intelligence sharing, supported the Multinational Joint Task Force, and promoted greater coordination among affected states. The organisation has also demonstrated its preventive diplomacy capacity in The Gambia (2016–2017), where firm but measured leadership helped resolve a dangerous post-election standoff without large-scale violence, and in Guinea (2021), where it applied sanctions and mediation to encourage return to constitutional rule.
Yet ECOWAS leadership has also encountered significant limitations. Divergent national interests, chronic funding shortfalls, and occasional leadership vacuums have sometimes slowed or complicated responses. The recent wave of military coups and political transitions in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Niger (2021–2023) tested the organisation’s cohesion and exposed the challenge of enforcing normative standards when powerful member states resist collective decisions. These episodes underscore a recurring truth: regional security leadership is only as strong as the political commitment and institutional capacity behind it.
Despite these challenges, ECOWAS remains one of the most advanced regional security mechanisms on the continent. Its evolution from an economic community to a security actor demonstrates how visionary leadership, combined with institutional innovation and political will, can enable a regional organisation to respond effectively to complex security threats. The ECOWAS experience offers enduring lessons: effective regional security leadership must be proactive rather than reactive, adaptive to new threats, inclusive of multiple stakeholders, and continuously reinforced through institutional reform and sustained political will.
African Union’s Continental Leadership: The African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA)
At the continental level, the African Union (AU) has emerged as a central actor in shaping Africa’s security landscape through the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA). Established following the transition from the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) in 2002, APSA represents a fundamental shift in African leadership philosophy — moving from the OAU’s rigid doctrine of non-interference to the AU’s principle of “non-indifference” when grave circumstances threaten peace and stability.
The architecture comprises five key pillars: the Peace and Security Council (PSC), the Continental Early Warning System, the Panel of the Wise, the African Standby Force, and the Peace Fund. This comprehensive framework was designed to enable Africa to take primary responsibility for its own peace and security rather than relying predominantly on external actors.
Leadership has been the critical variable in APSA’s performance. The decision by African heads of state to create the Peace and Security Council marked a bold act of continental leadership, giving the AU authority to authorise interventions in cases of war crimes, genocide, or crimes against humanity. One of the most visible demonstrations of this leadership was the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), launched in 2007. Despite enormous challenges, AMISOM — later reconfigured as the African Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) — helped degrade Al-Shabaab’s control over large parts of the country and created space for political processes and state-building. This mission showcased the AU’s willingness to deploy troops and sustain long-term engagement where international partners were initially hesitant.
Another significant example is the AU’s mediation and peacekeeping efforts in Darfur (Sudan), South Sudan, the Central African Republic, and the Lake Chad Basin. In each case, the effectiveness of AU leadership depended heavily on the political will and diplomatic skill of key member states, the AU Commission Chairperson, and the Peace and Security Council. The AU’s successful facilitation of the 2019 political transition in Sudan and its ongoing mediation efforts in multiple conflict zones further illustrate how continental leadership can create pathways for dialogue when national institutions falter.
However, the AU’s leadership has also encountered notable limitations. Funding shortages, logistical constraints, and sometimes divergent interests among member states have hampered rapid and decisive action. The 2011 Libya intervention exposed deep divisions within the AU, while recent political transitions and coups in the Sahel (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Guinea) have tested the Union’s ability to enforce its normative frameworks consistently. These experiences reveal that continental leadership remains vulnerable to the sovereignty concerns of member states and the challenge of translating political consensus into operational effectiveness.
Despite these constraints, the AU has made important strides in institutionalising leadership for peace and security. The adoption of the African Union Master Roadmap for Silencing the Guns by 2030 and the ongoing efforts to fully operationalise the African Standby Force reflect a long-term strategic vision. The Union has also strengthened its partnership with Regional Economic Communities (RECs) such as ECOWAS, IGAD, and SADC, recognising that effective continental security requires layered leadership — with RECs often acting as first responders and the AU providing strategic oversight and legitimacy.
The African Union’s journey demonstrates both the immense potential and the inherent difficulties of continental leadership in security matters. When leadership is bold, united, and well-resourced, the AU can play a transformative role in preventing conflict, managing crises, and supporting post-conflict reconstruction. When leadership is fragmented or under-resourced, progress slows and opportunities for timely intervention are lost.
SADC Regional Interventions: Leadership, Solidarity, and the Limits of Collective Action
The Southern African Development Community (SADC) offers a distinct model of regional security leadership shaped by its historical struggle against apartheid and a strong emphasis on sovereignty and consensus. Originally formed in 1980 to reduce economic dependence on apartheid South Africa, SADC has gradually expanded its security role through the 2001 Protocol on Politics, Defence and Security Cooperation and the Organ on Politics, Defence and Security.
SADC’s most prominent military intervention occurred in 1998 in Lesotho. Following a disputed election and political violence, South Africa and Botswana, acting under SADC authority, launched Operation Boleas to restore order and facilitate new elections. While the intervention achieved its immediate objectives, it was criticised for limited consultation with other SADC members and for being perceived as South African dominance rather than genuine collective action. This episode highlighted both the potential and the sensitivities of SADC leadership in security matters.
A more sustained and complex engagement has been SADC’s involvement in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Since 2013, SADC has supported the Force Intervention Brigade (FIB) within the UN Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO). Comprising troops from South Africa, Tanzania, and Malawi, the FIB was mandated to conduct offensive operations against armed groups. South African leadership was instrumental in pushing for the creation of the FIB, reflecting Pretoria’s strategic interest in stabilising the Great Lakes region. The intervention has had mixed results: it helped degrade some armed groups but has struggled with the sheer complexity of conflict dynamics, resource constraints, and the challenge of addressing root causes such as governance failures and illicit resource exploitation.
More recently, in 2021, SADC deployed the SADC Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) to address the escalating insurgency in Cabo Delgado province. The mission, led by South African forces with contributions from several member states, aimed to support the Mozambican government in restoring security and protecting civilians. Leadership from South Africa, Botswana, and Tanzania was critical in mobilising rapid deployment. While SAMIM has contributed to the degradation of insurgent capabilities and the protection of key economic installations, challenges remain, including coordination with Rwandan forces operating in the same theatre and the need for a stronger focus on addressing underlying socio-economic grievances.
SADC’s security interventions reveal a distinct leadership pattern dominated by a few influential member states, particularly South Africa. This “hegemonic leadership” model has enabled action when consensus is difficult to achieve but has also generated resentment among smaller states wary of South African dominance. Zimbabwe and Angola have also played significant roles in specific contexts, while smaller states have contributed troops and political legitimacy.
The consensus-based decision-making culture within SADC has been both a strength and a limitation. It ensures broad buy-in when agreement is reached, but it can lead to slow or diluted responses when member states have divergent interests. The principle of “quiet diplomacy” has often prioritised political dialogue over forceful intervention, sometimes delaying decisive action.
SADC interventions have achieved notable successes. They have prevented state collapse in Lesotho, contributed to stabilisation efforts in the DRC, and helped contain the Cabo Delgado insurgency. The organisation has also developed important normative frameworks, including the Strategic Indicative Plan for the Organ (SIPO) and mechanisms for electoral observation and conflict prevention.
However, limitations are equally evident. Funding remains chronically inadequate, often forcing reliance on external partners or lead nations. Logistical challenges, interoperability issues among national forces, and uneven political commitment have constrained operational effectiveness. Critics argue that SADC’s responses have sometimes prioritised regime security over human security, particularly in cases involving member states’ internal political crises.
The SADC experience underscores several important lessons about regional security leadership. First, hegemonic leadership can enable rapid action but risks undermining legitimacy and long-term cohesion. Second, consensus-based systems require strong mediation and facilitation skills to convert agreement into effective implementation. Third, sustainable security leadership must address both immediate threats and underlying structural drivers such as poverty, inequality, and governance deficits. Finally, SADC’s trajectory shows that regional organisations can play meaningful security roles even without a single dominant power, provided there is sufficient political will and institutional adaptability.
Comparative Insights from Other Regions
Global experiences reinforce these lessons. The European Union’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) has succeeded largely because of consistent institutional leadership and shared norms among member states, enabling joint missions and rapid response capabilities. In Southeast Asia, ASEAN’s consensus-based leadership model has helped maintain stability amid complex geopolitical tensions, although it has occasionally been criticised for slower decision-making. These cases confirm that effective regional security leadership requires a delicate balance between respect for sovereignty and the courage to pursue collective action.
Persistent Challenges and Pathways Forward
Leadership in regional and continental security faces recurring obstacles: divergent national interests, resource constraints, weak institutional capacity, and external interference. Political transitions and electoral cycles can disrupt continuity, while hybrid threats demand leaders capable of integrating diverse tools and actors.
To build more effective security leadership, regional and continental organisations must invest deliberately in leadership development. This includes targeted programmes that cultivate strategic foresight, ethical governance, collaborative skills, and crisis management capabilities. Institutional mechanisms should be designed to ensure policy continuity beyond changes in individual leaders. Greater inclusion of civil society, youth, and women in security decision-making can enhance legitimacy and broaden perspectives. Finally, partnerships with global actors should be pursued in ways that preserve African agency and ownership.
Conclusion
Leadership remains the single most decisive factor in regional and continental security. It is the invisible bridge that transforms fragile agreements into enduring peace, turns shared vulnerability into collective strength, and converts divergent national interests into a common purpose. The experiences of ECOWAS in West Africa, the African Union across the continent, and SADC in Southern Africa, alongside valuable lessons from Europe and Southeast Asia, consistently demonstrate one fundamental truth: even the most sophisticated security architectures will falter without visionary, ethical, and collaborative leadership.
In an increasingly interconnected and volatile world, where threats respect no borders, the quality of leadership at every level — from heads of state to technical experts within regional commissions — will ultimately determine whether Africa and other regions merely survive successive crises or rise to build lasting stability and prosperity.
The challenge before current and future leaders is clear: to move beyond rhetoric and embrace the difficult work of forging unity, exercising foresight, upholding accountability, and investing in people-centred security solutions. Those who answer this call will not only secure their nations and regions but will also leave a legacy of peace that benefits generations yet unborn and contributes meaningfully to a more stable global order.
True security is not built by arms alone. It is built by leadership that dares to imagine, unite, and act for the common good.
Dr. Tolulope A. Adegoke, AMBP-UN is a globally recognized scholar-practitioner and thought leader at the nexus of security, governance, and strategic leadership. His mission is dedicated to advancing ethical governance, strategic human capital development, and resilient nation-building, and global peace. He can be reached via: tolulopeadegoke01@gmail.com, globalstageimpacts@gmail.com
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