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NIGERIA: Teneo Presents Update on the Presidential Election Forecast

Published

7 years ago

February 9, 2019

Eric

As the February 16 Presidential Election draws closer, more forecast regarding how the people will vote and who will win continues to fill the media space.

Below is an update on the Presidential Election as forecast by Teneo

NIGERIA: Update on the presidential election forecast

● We continue to forecast a seemingly comfortable 16 percentage point lead for the main opposition candidate Atiku Abubakar over President Muhammadu Buhari.
● Yet the underlying assumption of a ‘reasonably free and fair vote’ might not hold, increasing the likelihood of a lengthy legal challenge of the result.
● Key strategies employed by the major parties to manipulate the results will include vote buying and disruption of the vote in opponents’ strongholds. Control of security institutions gives the ruling party an advantage regarding the latter.

Less than two weeks ahead of the 16 February presidential and legislative polls, our forecast concerning the outcome of the presidential election remains unchanged. We still project a first-round victory by the main opposition candidate, Atiku Abubakar, with up to 57% of votes, against an anticipated 42% to be cast for the incumbent, President Muhammadu Buhari (please click below on “View PDF” for a visual overview). That would give Atiku a seemingly comfortable 16 percentage point advantage over Buhari. As per our initial forecast, the underlying assumption is a ‘reasonably free and fair’ vote, i.e., levels of fraud, voter intimidation and manipulation that do not exceed those observed in the 2015 ballot. However, as previously explained, this assumption might not hold, and the election outcome is thus likely to be challenged in court.

The prospects of a legal challenge For starters, presidential election results being challenged in court is the rule rather than the exception. Since 1999, four out of five presidential elections ended up in court (see table below). Ironically, then-candidates Atiku and Buhari jointly appealed against the result of the 2007 presidential election, universally regarded as Nigeria’s most rigged electoral contest to date. While the courts have so far always decided in favor of the president-elect, Buhari might have alienated the judiciary
with the recent suspension of the Chief Justice of Nigeria. However, everything would depend on the composition of the Supreme Court tribunal eventually reviewing the appeal.

As per the ‘time lag’ column in the table below, in the event of a legal challenge, Nigeria would be in for a prolonged period of suspense.

Under such a scenario, how paralyzed the political system will become would much depend on the majorities in the Senate and the House of Representatives, which will equally be elected on 16 February. If the president-elect has no majority in the National Assembly, any major policy decisions would likely be blocked, including appointments requiring Senate approval.

However, it should be noted that even in a ‘normal’ year, passing the annual budget can take more than six months.

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Should Buhari win, it is virtually guaranteed that Atiku will go to court. In fact, his People’s Democratic Party (PDP) has legally challenged the results of the Ekiti and Osun gubernatorial polls conducted in July and September 2018, respectively.

Conversely, there would be a lesser chance of a legally contested outcome in the event of an Atiku victory. Indeed, this would imply that government institutions were unable to prevent or were even complicit in vote-rigging, which would be somewhat embarrassing for Buhari. In 2015, the only instance so far in which a sitting president was defeated, then president Goodluck Jonathan chose to vacate his seat without recourse to legal means.

How to rig the election: a primer

Both main parties will try to rig the election in their favor. However, their ability to do so depends on their respective control of the situation on the ground, which varies across the country. This puts the opposition in a better position in its traditional strongholds across the south-south and south-east geopolitical regions, while the ruling APC has a better ground game across the north. Note that this is already factored into our forecast. Ultimately, however, the greater – not necessarily
exclusive – sway over the security forces favors the party in power.

The strategies to be deployed are shaped by the rules of the game, i.e. the provisions of the 2015 electoral act as well as the rules and regulations issued by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Although their use is still not mandatory, the electronic authentication of voters by means of a Permanent Voters’ Card (PVC), containing the voter’s biometric details, is a key aspect of the electoral process. As in last year’s state-level elections, parties will therefore place much emphasis on vote buying, even though this strategy has its drawbacks: voters might take the money but still vote
independently. Yet the apparent scarcity of funds during the campaign so far suggests parties are hoarding cash to be disbursed on election day.

Given the pitfalls of vote buying, another strategy that will surely be deployed is to simply disrupt the vote in opponents’ strongholds. This can take place before the vote, for instance by destroying uncollected PVCs, as recently happened in Abia State (a PDP stronghold) where a local INEC office was set ablaze, destroying an alleged 15,000 voter cards. During
election day, the strategic deployment of army and police units will probably feature highly.

Similar to what happened during last year’s elections in Ekiti and Osun State, the security forces are more likely to intercept the vote-buying business of opposition parties or – a particularly crude tactic employed during the partial re-run in Osun – deny opposition voters access to polling stations altogether. However, the crucial difference to state-level polls is scale: the security forces are simply spread too thinly to control a nationwide election involving some 120,000 polling stations.

Malte Liewerscheidt
Vice President
+44 20 7186 8870
malte.liewerscheidt@teneo.com

© 2019 Teneo. All rights reserved. This material was produced by Teneo for use solely by the recipient. This communication is intended as general background research and is not intended to constitute advice on any particular commercial investment or trade matter or issue and should not be relied upon for such purposes. The views expressed here represent opinions as of this date and are subject to change without notice. The information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but no guarantees can be given as to its accuracy, completeness or reliability. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or otherwise, without the prior consent of Teneo.

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The multi-stage election results collation process offers another avenue for manipulation, especially since results are still not transmitted to INEC servers straight from the polling station. Besides, INEC has a habit of only publishing top-line, aggregated results, which makes it difficult to detect manipulation at lower levels. Finally, INEC’s ICT infrastructure.

The details (tables, graphs et al) are contained in the PDF document below:

7ab8ed4d-6402-4410-9cc1-139dbd153568

Headline

Eid-el-Fitr: Tinubu Felicitates with Nigerian Muslims, Urges Renewed Patriotism

Published

1 day ago

March 20, 2026

Eric

As Muslims worldwide celebrate Eid-el-Fitr, marking the end of Ramadan, President Bola Tinubu has congratulated the Muslim faithful in Nigeria, urging renewed commitment to the nation and humanity.

President Tinubu enjoined Nigerian Muslims to rededicate themselves to the noble teachings of the holy month, which emphasise piety, empathy, and unity among humanity.

The President’s message was contained in a statement signed by his media aide, Bayo Onanuga, on Thursday.

“We have a lot to draw from the noble lessons of Ramadan, especially at a time like this. We must continue to abide by the virtues of piety, selflessness, perseverance, kindness and compassion beyond this period,” he said.

President Tinubu urged all Muslim faithful to extend a hand of kindness to the needy of all faiths, to further show unity and camaraderie.

The President also tasked Muslim leaders to use the occasion to offer prayers for peace and prosperity to prevail in the country.

On Wednesday, the Sultan of Sokoto and President-General of the Nigerian Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs, Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar, approved the declaration of Friday as the day for Eid-el-Fitr.

He congratulated Muslims on the successful completion of Ramadan and called for sustained prayers for national unity and development.

The Sultan’s announcement came after the Federal government of Nigeria declared Thursday, 19 March, and Friday, 20 March 2026, as public holidays to mark the celebration of Eid-el-Fitr, which signifies the end of the holy month of Ramadan.

In a statement signed by the Permanent Secretary, Ministry of Interior, Magdalene Ajani, on Tuesday, the Minister of Interior, Olubunmi Tunji-Ojo, who made the declaration on behalf of the Federal Government, extended warm greetings and heartfelt congratulations to the Muslim faithful on the successful completion of the holy month of Ramadan.

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2027: Peter Obi Raises Doubt About Clinching ADC Presidential Ticket

Published

2 days ago

March 19, 2026

Eric

A former Labour Party presidential candidate, Peter Obi, has expressed reservations over his ability to clinch the African Democratic Congress’ (ADC) presidential ticket for the 2027 elections.

In a video address to his followers, Obi stated that receiving the ADC’s presidential ticket is not guaranteed.

He said: “Someone asked me how I know for sure that the ADC will give me the presidential ticket. I cannot be certain. What matters is that we are committed to a cause.

I keep wondering how we ended up in this situation and what might happen if we decide to stop working on this project.”

“Obi also said he is still committed to his goals, and he hasn’t let any reported threats stop him.

The former Labour Party presidential candidate praised his supporters for their resilience, recognizing the difficulties of working within opposition politics in Nigeria.

Obi thanked everyone who stayed loyal even though they didn’t get much benefit right away.

“I thank you for your sacrifice. It’s not easy to be in the opposition in Nigeria, and I’m thankful to those who keep supporting even when there’s no clear reward,” he said.

He, however, expressed uncertainty about the future, especially concerning political alliances and commitments.

“How can we be certain that the people we’re working with right now won’t leave us behind tomorrow? I wish we could be sure, but we can’t,” he said.

Headline

Terrorism: Tinubu Seeks UK’s Assistance Amid Challenges

Published

2 days ago

March 19, 2026

Eric

President Bola Tinubu, on Wednesday, solicited partnership with the United Kingdom to crush terrorism in the Sahel before it engulfs the region.

“Our West African region faces complex terrorism challenges with roots in the Sahel,” Tinubu told King Charles III, Queen Camilla, Prince William, and elite guests, at a state banquet.

Speaking as the first Nigerian leader at the historic venue, Tinubu said: “As one of the largest nations within the Commonwealth, Nigeria looks forward to contributing constructively to the continued growth and vitality of this global community.

“Our West African region faces complex terrorism challenges with roots in the Sahel. Nigeria carries an enormous responsibility to help safeguard regional stability. In confronting these threats, partnership with the United Kingdom remains essential and I look forward to my meeting with Prime Minister Kier Starmer tomorrow.

“Despite these challenges, Nigeria approaches the future with hope and confidence. We are a nation of diverse and vibrant people, of young people dreaming big, of entrepreneurs with a global outlook, and of a hopeful people determined to realise their full potential.”

The Nigeria’s President said it was an honour to stand before the royal family, representing the people of Nigeria to reaffirm the enduring bonds of friendship, history, and shared purpose that have united Nigeria and the United Kingdom for several centuries.

“Allow me first to express my sincere appreciation to Your Majesty and to Her Majesty, The Queen for the warmth and generosity extended to me, my wife, Oluremi, and the Nigerian delegation.

“As the first Nigerian leader to speak here at Windsor Castle, which has served the British Crown for nearly a millennium, is particularly historic. Windsor has stood as a symbol of continuity, witnessing the steady evolution of institutions that have shaped governance, culture, and public life not only in Britain but far beyond these shores.

“Nigeria and the United Kingdom have shared more than just history; our two nations share a vision of progress and resilience. Today, we continue that journey, committed to building a future rooted in partnership, mutual respect, and common values.

“Standing here in Windsor Castle, one cannot help but reflect on Britain’s impact on modern democratic governance worldwide.”

He explained further: “The Magna Carta of 1215 laid the early foundations for the rule of law and the development of parliamentary democracy, establishing enduring ideals around liberty, accountable government, and civic responsibility.

“Great British thinkers and writers such as Thomas Hobbes, John Locke, and Edmund Burke helped to propagate those democratic ideals. Their influence continues to resonate to this day.

“The literary genius of William Shakespeare and other writers such as Charles Dickens, has enriched and shaped the English language, spoken by over 1.5 billion people worldwide.

“In Nigeria, elements of these traditions continue to inform the institutional foundations of our own republic. Our courts draw upon legal traditions rooted in English common law. Our parliamentary institutions reflect constitutional practices that evolved here over centuries. Our civil service structures have also drawn upon administrative models developed in Britain and adapted to Nigeria’s own national context.

“While institutions matter greatly, our people remain the strongest bridge between our two countries.”

He said the Nigerian community in the United Kingdom has become one of the most dynamic diaspora communities worldwide, adding: “Nigerians contribute enormously to the vitality of this nation. Within the National Health Service, Nigerian doctors and nurses play an indispensable role in delivering healthcare. Nigerian-trained doctors are among the largest groups of international medical professionals serving the NHS.”

He noted the exploits of Nigerians in the country especially in sports, saying: “in sport, rugby players such as Maro Itoje, footballers including Bukayo Saka and Eberechi Eze, and champion boxer Anthony Joshua, illustrate the remarkable human connection that links Nigeria and the United Kingdom.

“Our partnership is further strengthened through the Commonwealth of Nations, which connects 56 countries under Your Majesty’s leadership.”

He expressed confidence that the friendship between Nigeria and the United Kingdom will continue to grow.

“Finally, Your Majesty, I wish to express Nigeria’s deep gratitude to this great nation for the refuge and support it extended during the dark years of military dictatorship. Like many Nigerians involved in the pro-democracy struggle, I found safety here, and I recall that my residence was placed under Metropolitan Police surveillance for protection following threats from agents of the junta.

“That solidarity remains etched in our collective memory, and it is deeply humbling for me to stand before Your Majesty today as the President of a democratic Nigeria.

“On behalf of the Government and people of Nigeria, I thank Your Majesty, Her Majesty The Queen, Prince William and Catherine, the Princess of Wales, other members of the Royal Family, and the people of the United Kingdom for their longstanding friendship.

“In the spirit of friendship and our shared destiny, I invite you all to raise a glass with me:

“To the special bond between Nigeria and the United Kingdom, and to the bright future that we shall build together.”