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Pendulum: Will APC Survive Its Self-Induced Hurricane Today?

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By Dele Momodu

Fellow Nigerians, please, allow me to put it the way the late cerebral politician and legal luminary, Chief Bola Ige – former Governor of Oyo State in the Second Republic, former Minister for Power and Steel and later, Attorney-General and Minister Justice under President Olusegun Obasanjo – also known as the Cicero of Esa Oke, would have described it: “today may be a day of the long knives within the ruling party, All Progressives Congress, APC”. The problem will not be with filling the various positions which exist on the National Executive Committee (NEC) of the ruling Party, but with the way and manner in which those positions will be filled, especially those factions of the Party that will benefit and those who will not.

The position is that barring any unforetold and unforeseen earthquake of monumental proportions, which is very remote indeed, my former Governor from Edo State, Comrade Adams Oshiomhole, will be crowned as the new National Chairman of APC. His coronation has become a procession and is now going to be no more than a mere formality because there is not a single challenger that can withstand the blistering and overwhelming support my dear Brother commands within the rank and file of his party, and his erstwhile challengers, the last being former Governor of Cross River State in the Third Republic, Clement Ebri, have now come to that realisation and thrown in the towel. I take this opportunity to congratulate Comrade Adams selection on his unopposed and unanimous nomination and election as the next Chairman of APC. I also congratulate all other members of the NEC who will be elected or returned unopposed into various positions in the NEC. I wish them all the very best, especially because the task before them is not an easy one.  The Party has imminent elections to fight, but all is not well as there are many disgruntled elements wishing to be heard as to the direction the party should take and their concerns and protests are simply being waved aside. How the Oshiomole led NEC deals with this grave issue will be the litmus test of the new Executive and may well determine whether it will be boom or gloom and doom for the party at the next polls.

History is very strange and dramatic. Comrade Oshiomhole is set to take over from another great man from our dear beloved Edo State, Chief John Odigie Oyegun, a former Governor of the State like Comrade Adams, and a leading light in the fight for democracy in Nigeria, which led him into forced exile in England. A perfect gentleman, Chief Oyegun led the All Progressive Congress to victory in 2015 ensuring that he achieved the first of leading an opposition Party to victory in Nigeria. However, since then he has had to fight an endless war of attrition and rebellion inside his own party. His first real test came with the Party’s failure to manage election, or shall I say selection, for the leadership of the National Assembly culminating in the debacle which led to the People’s Democratic Party’s, Ike Ekweremadu, being elected as Deputy Senate President.

Oyegun’s unflinching and unyielding loyalty to President Muhammadu Buhari brought him into frontal collision with those within the party who felt that he did not protect them at all against the onslaught from the Presidency. There was also a time the party was having problems with a major pillar of its success in 2015, Chief Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who was supposed to be one of his solid backers in the past. Oyegun’s position at that time was considered a betrayal of Tinubu who had expected that his support and assistance to Oyegun in times gone past had not been repaid. His loyalty therefore became an albatross which he couldn’t shake off easily. Oyegun had wanted an extension of his tenure as Chairman of APC’s NEC, but he soon found that he could not count on the support of President Buhari. Try as he may to get the backing of the President on this issue he found out that he was only meeting with an immovable force, a concrete brick wall in the President. Indeed, the President was later to practically decree that the NEC should be dissolved and fresh elections conducted to fill the vacant positions. Oyegun threw his hat into the ring but soon found out that he did not have the support of the Presidency, although this remained an unspoken, but open secret. In consequence, Oyegun withdrew from the Chairmanship race and slunk into a corner to sulk and lick his real and festering open wound!

Well, having practically disposed of its Chairmanship palaver, the bickering, intrigues and betrayals all end today, as a new chapter is opened in the party. According to impeccable sources, the party wants to make a clean sweep and start today and reject any candidate suspected to be coming from the camp of perceived renegades. And if the truth be told, there are many of such rebellious elements within the ruling party. Their disaffection and the damage that could be caused if the situation is not properly managed has been much chronicled by many people, including myself, but the party seems adamant on having its way. For me, this is the crux of the matter. APC must tread softly, softly, lest it repeats the mistakes of the leadership of its immediate predecessor in government, PDP, which fought so much, on many fronts, till the centre could no longer hold and mere anarchy was loosed upon its fold. At that time, PDP was cock sure that those who wished to quit the party were free to go. My advice is that APC should not abandon its reconciliation moves no matter the magnitude of the problems and attendant confusion at the moment. The party still has in its favour, the fact that the perception of the generality of Nigerians is that notwithstanding its fumbles, wobbles and stumbles, the party is still a more trustworthy party than the PDP because of the unrivalled pillaging of the country which took place in the 16 years of PDP misrule. However, if the problems within the APC community continues unchecked it is not unlikely that people get irritated and frustrated that the party is unable to put its house in order and may start seriously considering alternatives, including the much-maligned PDP.

For this reason, the party must remember that there are general elections in less than nine months and so it has little time to restore order amongst its ranks. The party cannot afford to be complacent. Whilst there is no doubt that the party won a convincing victory in the 2015 elections, the margin of victory and the number of those who apparently exhibited voter apathy and abstained from voting at the elections should be a veritable source of concern to the party. Indeed, had PDP gotten anything close to the number of voters in the South South and South East, and to a lesser extent the South West, that voted for it in 2015, it would easily have won the Presidential elections.

A brief recap shows that in 2011, PDP and its candidate, President Jonathan, won almost 22 and a half million votes, with a considerable chunk coming from the South South and South East, whilst CPC and its candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, won just about 12 and a quarter million votes. The candidate for AC, Nuhu Ribadu, the former anti-corruption Czar won just over 2 million votes. If one adds up the progressive votes of CPC and AC, which were the votes of the opposition at the time, the total comes to about 14 and a half million votes. The total votes cast in that election was about 38 million votes and the margin of victory over the opposition was about 8 million votes.  In the 2015 elections, President Buhari and the ruling APC, which was an amalgamation of CPC, AC and the new PDP as the major parties, could only manage just under 15 and a half million votes. In effect this was just one million more votes than the opposition had garnered in the 2011 elections. On the other hand, PDP could only muster just under 13 million votes.  The margin of victory was only just over two and a half million votes. As can be seen, it was not therefore that the opposition gained a lot of votes as much as that PDP lost almost 10 million votes which was a clear sign of how badly it was perceived by the people who decided that they would not vote for it. Thus, the numbers must therefore add up or APC may die a premature death as the ruling party. I’m sure PDP is yet to fully recover from the cataclysmic fall it suffered in 2015. This was how it started like a joke.

I have watched in utter dismay how some party chieftains have been boasting that they will win elections no matter how many people abandon the party. It may turn out to be much more complex than they envisage. Some of those being suspected of anti-party activities include the Senate President, Dr Abubakar Bukola Saraki, The Speaker of the Federal House of Representatives, Rt. Hon. Yakubu Dogara, Senator Rabiu Kwankwaso, Governor Waziri Aminu Tambuwal of Sokoto State, Governor Abdulfatah Ahmed of Kwara State, Dr Samuel Ioraer Ortom of Benue State and several others. Of course, there has been no love lost between their different camps. It seems the main apparatchik never trusted most of those who joined APC from PDP. They’ve been treated like second class citizens. All efforts to reconcile the party have failed so far.

If the APC loses only some of the votes that this group commands it is clear that its wafer thin majority may disappear and so will its government, bad PDP or not. That is a chilling prospect for APC to consider when it decides to share the spoils of victory at its National convention today.

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Rivers Impeachment Brouhaha: Wike, Fubara ‘Run’ Abroad to Meet Tinubu

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By Eric Elezuo

The fragile peace that sprout out in Rivers State after the six months Emergency Rule declared by President Bola Tinubu, has suddenly collapsed as the two major gladiators; the Federal Capital Territory Minister, Nyesom Wike and Rivers State governor, Siminalayi Fubara, have returned to the war front.

This is as the 26 legislators loyal to the FCT minister have initiated an impeachment proceedings against the sitting governor, Fubara, accusing him of gross misconduct roped in 8-count charges.

The lawmakers during a session on Thursday, presided over by Speaker of the House, Martin Amaewhule, are accusing Fubara and his deputy, Dr. Ngozi Oduh, of gross misconduct.

Observers have said that the day’s proceedings bear the imprimatur of renewed hostilities between Fubara and his predecessor Nyesom Wike, minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).

Rrcall that onn December 5, 2025, a horde of the Rivers assembly lawmakers led by the speaker, announced their defection from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the All Progressives Congress (APC), and days later, Fubara formalised his own switch from the PDP to the APC.

By the renewed hostilities, the two feuding personalities are seeking the support of the president, who it is believed can quench the rising tension, to either impeach the Chief Executive or survive the impeachment process.

A report monitored on Businessday Newspaper noted therfore, that President Bola Tinubu has once again intervened in the lingering political crisis between Fubara, and Wike.

According to the paper, quoting credible sources, the President summoned Wike for a crucial meeting abroad over the renewed face-off, which has reignited tensions in the oil-rich state, even as the president is still holidaying abroad.

The paper also The Punch, said a top presidential source disclosed on Saturday that the meeting is expected to be held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE), where Tinubu will be heading after a brief stay in France.

“The President must see the danger in what Wike is doing. I am aware he has summoned him to a meeting in Dubai. Barring any last-minute change, they are expected to meet abroad. Wike cannot impeach Fubara; the President will call him to order,” the source said.

The source added that Wike’s recent actions constituted an affront to the President and could potentially trigger unrest in the Niger Delta.

“If you say you want to sack the first Ijaw man to be governor, are you not sending the Ijaw people back to the creeks? That will have attendant effects on the economy, and the President will not allow that to happen,” he warned.

According to reports, tension heightened on Thursday after 27 members of the Rivers State House of Assembly, loyal to Wike, initiated fresh impeachment proceedings against Governor Fubara and his deputy, Prof. Ngozi Odu.

The impeachment notice, read by Majority Leader, Major Jack, during plenary presided over by Speaker Martins Amaewhule, contained seven allegations of gross misconduct against the governor.

These include the demolition of the Assembly complex, extra-budgetary spending, and refusal to comply with a Supreme Court ruling on legislative financial autonomy.

Deputy Governor Odu was accused of “reckless and unconstitutional spending of public funds” and “obstructing the Assembly from performing its duties.”

Speaker Amaewhule described the impeachment move as “good and in the interest of Rivers State,” accusing Fubara of undermining the Assembly by failing to present the 2026 budget.

The latest move mirrors the earlier impeachment crisis that led to the declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers in March 2025.

Despite Tinubu’s earlier mediation, the fragile peace between Wike and Fubara collapsed just months after the end of the six-month emergency rule.

Wike accused Fubara of reneging on their post-truce agreements, while Fubara fired subtle jabs at his predecessor.

The rift has since deepened, with Wike vowing that Fubara would not secure a second term, even after defecting to the All Progressives Congress (APC).

A senior aide to the President told reporters that Tinubu was aware of the escalating situation but declined to confirm any planned meeting with Wike.

“Only Wike or his aides can say if there is any scheduled meeting between him and the President,” the official said.

However, a senior APC official confirmed that national leaders of the party planned to meet Tinubu when he returns to Nigeria to discuss the growing discontent over Wike’s conduct.

“Some of our leaders believe Wike should have respected the President and the party because Fubara is now one of our governors,” the official said. “Even if he won’t get a second term, he should be allowed to complete his tenure.”

Meanwhile, Wike has been touring Rivers local councils, soliciting and accepting approvals from loyalists just as Fubara has asked for calm from members while they wait on the president.

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Atiku Will Not Withdraw for Anyone, ADC Ticket Must Be Earned in Open Contest – Paul Ibe

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Media Adviser to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Paul Ibe, has insisted that neither Atiku nor any other aspirant in the African Democratic Congress (ADC) opposition coalition will step aside, stressing that the party’s presidential ticket must be earned through a transparent and competitive process.

Speaking in an interview with ARISE News on Wednesday, Ibe said calls for Atiku to withdraw from the race undermine democratic principles and play into what he described as the ruling All Progressives Congress’ alleged plan to weaken opposition politics.

“Inclusiveness is the essence of democracy. The ADC remains committed to an open, transparent and competitive process for choosing its flag bearer. Any call for Atiku Abubakar to step aside is a betrayal of the Nigerian people,” he said.

Ibe accused the administration of President Bola Tinubu of interfering in the internal affairs of opposition parties, alleging an agenda to impose a one-party state on Nigeria.

“The Tinubu-led administration should be focused on governance — security, the economy, the welfare of Nigerians — but instead, they are dabbling into opposition politics. That is dangerous for democracy,” he said.

He dismissed claims that Atiku dominates the ADC, describing such narratives as “mischief.”

“Atiku Abubakar is just a member of the ADC. Yes, he is a leader, a former vice president, but he is not the only leader. There are leaders across the country, and he is working with them to build party structures,” Ibe said.

According to him, the party’s current priority is grassroots mobilisation, not ticket permutations.

“Talking about who gets the ticket now is putting the cart before the horse. A house without pillars will collapse. The ADC is building structures — ward, local government, state — and that is where the focus should be.”

On speculation about possible compromises with other aspirants such as Peter Obi and Rotimi Amaechi, Ibe said no discussion has taken place regarding relinquishing the presidential ticket.

“There has been no conversation whatsoever about stepping down for anyone. Their preoccupation is building a robust alternative platform capable of giving the APC a run for its money.”

Addressing reports of alliances involving figures outside the ADC, including Rabiu Kwankwaso and former President Olusegun Obasanjo, Ibe said such talks were external to the party.

“Rabiu Kwankwaso is not a member of the ADC. Whatever discussions are happening are outside the party. But the ADC is expanding, reaching out, and more people will come on board.”

He maintained that the ADC leadership has ruled out automatic tickets, insisting the process will not be dictated by external forces.

“The party has made it clear: no automatic tickets. The outcome of the primaries will be determined by party members, not outside influence.”

Responding to questions about Atiku’s age and repeated presidential bids, Ibe rejected suggestions that the former vice president should step aside to mentor successors.

“Age has nothing to do with leadership. Atiku has mentored governors, lawmakers and public servants over the years. He is patriotic, passionate, and deeply committed to Nigeria.”

He added:

“If you analyse his blood, you will find Nigeria in it. Nobody has been more prepared to govern than Atiku Abubakar.”

Ibe also alleged that Nigeria’s last two presidential elections were rigged, arguing that Atiku’s defeats were not a reflection of public trust.

“The elections of 2019 and 2023 were rigged. This is not about trust; it is about institutions failing Nigerians.”

On fears that opposition divisions could again hand victory to the ruling party in 2027, Ibe said opposition leaders had learned from past mistakes.

“This is not about personal ambition. It is a call to national duty. Leaders understand what is at stake and have learned from 2023.”

He further alleged attempts by the ruling party to infiltrate and destabilise the ADC.

“The Tinubu camp does not want an opposition. They are funding court cases and using state resources to undermine the ADC, but the party is taking steps to ensure they fail.”

However, Ibe said some details could not be disclosed publicly.

“There are things I cannot share on camera, but the leadership and stakeholders are fully aware.”

Asked what would happen if Atiku loses the ADC primary, Ibe said his principal would accept the outcome.

“Atiku Abubakar will submit himself to the process and support whoever emerges as the presidential candidate of the ADC.”

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2027: Dele Momodu Warns Against Introduction of ‘Aggression and Rambunctiousness’ into ADC

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Veteran Journalist and chieftain of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) Chief Dele Momodu, has cautioned the party against repeating internal conflicts similar to those experienced in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), stressing that some groups are introducing ‘aggression and rambunctiousness into a fledgling cooperation’.

In a post on X, Momodu recalled the 2025 gathering in Abuja, where opposition parties coalesced around ADC to challenge the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

He wrote: “I was most elated hearing these beautiful words. I was happy to see an Army veteran and General David Mark as Chairman, knowing he would brook no nonsense. But in recent time, some groups have introduced aggression and rambunctiousness into a fledgling cooperation. How can a coalition work if some groups insist they must produce the top ticket by donation and coronation, without election or persuasion?”

Momodu warned that ADC must enforce discipline before internal disagreements escalate, citing how former Governor of Rivers State, Nyesom Wike, consolidated power within the PDP.

“ADC should be a party of love and not a Fuji house of commotion,” he said.

The warning coincides with renewed clarifications from the Obidient Movement Worldwide, which has emphasised that former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi, who recently defected from the Labour Party to the ADC, will not serve as a vice-presidential candidate to any politician, asserting that its support is exclusively for his emergence as Nigeria’s president in 2027.

Also, Obedient Movement’s National Coordinator, Dr Tanko Yunusa, speaking on Eagle 102.5 FM’s Frontline programme, dismissed speculation that Obi’s alignment with ADC signals deference to former Vice President Atiku Abubakar or other political figures.

“Everybody that was in that particular coalition contributed to that particular coalition with their hard-earned money. Nobody owns that political party, please, and please, don’t get it wrong,” Yunusa said.

He described Obi as a candidate capable of delivering what the Obidient Movement calls a “moral solution” to Nigeria’s leadership challenges, highlighting policy priorities including economic discipline, national security, and sustainable fuel subsidies. Yunusa also outlined Obi’s approach to foreign relations, saying, “The people of Nigeria are the ones that Mr Peter Obi will interface with as a gentleman. And then he will also link up with the international community to ensure that they’ve got that particular respect they desire.”

Addressing criticisms over Obi’s political mobility, Yunusa said structural challenges within the Labour Party necessitated his defection to ADC. “Forces in power deliberately undermined the party’s functionality. If your house is being deliberately set on fire, would you remain inside it? There was a calculated attempt to destroy what was being built,” he said.

Yunusa said that Obi’s decision to join ADC followed consultations with a broad coalition of groups seeking national reform. “Ordinarily, Peter Obi would flow with the people who are calling for him,” he said, noting that young Nigerians involved in the process are “the deciders” of his political trajectory.

Responding to questions on a potential vice-presidential role, Yunusa reaffirmed, “Politics has no permanent enemies, only permanent interests. The interest here is good governance, and Peter Obi represents that.”
He also reiterated Obi’s one-term pledge, saying, “If elected in 2027, Peter Obi would complete the remaining four years for the South and return power to the North. This demonstrates credibility and national unity.”

The Obidient Movement has committed to following a transparent ADC presidential primary and stated it will act collectively with Obi should the process be compromised, signalling continued vigilance over party discipline and coalition cohesion.

As Nigeria approaches the 2027 elections, Obi’s positioning within ADC, alongside warnings from figures like Momodu, underscores the ongoing tension between coalition building, party discipline, and the ambitions of influential political actors in the opposition landscape.

Additional info: The Guardian 

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