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Ekiti Polls: The Demystification of Ayo Fayose

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By Nkannebe Raymond Esq.

Four years ago when he re-emerged onto the political firmament of Ekiti State, nay Nigeria, through the instrumentality of the now infamous “stomach infrastructure” philosophy and aided by a compromised electoral process orchestrated by security agencies posted to the state to ostensibly ensure  peaceful conduct of the polls, Ayodele Peter Fayose “The Rock” as he likes to call himself, had the rare privilege of repairing whatever damage that was inflicted by his reign at his first coming in 2003, after defeating the then incumbent Niyi Adebayo, until his infamous impeachment three years later in 2006. With the gamut of goodwill that earned him a second bite at the cherry, one would have thought the 57 year old would hit the ground running in delivering to the people of Ekiti, a ‘State-of-the-art’ governance that had eluded them for some time. But that was not to be as events turned out.

As against this, Fayose in apparent obliviousness of his primary assignment which was the welfare of the people of Ekiti state was rather drawn into the politics of his Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). At the height of things, it was difficult identifying who actually was the spokesman of the then ruling party. Apparently opposed to the emergence of the then candidate Muhammadu Buhari, Fayose made it his life ambition to de-market his candidacy at the electoral market and before the entire world. As garrulous and cantankerous as he can be, Fayose rained fire and brimstone. He quoted the scripture. He took on the status of a prophet of doom. He said Buhari would not live through 2015 as according to him, the man was diseased of some cancerous ailment. He called the bluff of former president Olusegun Obasanjo when the old war horse tore his party card and ended things with the then ruling party. He loomed larger than life and sold papers for the media houses on account of the controversies he spurned effortlessly.

With the emergence of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in power after the 2015 general elections, the man seemed to have become more emboldened contrary to what many analysts thought. He dared the presidency. He called the bluff of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). He told the world that he was God-sent, and thus can be undone by no Man. When his party lapsed into an internecine leadership crisis following the embarrassing outcome of the 2015 election, Fayose and his Rivers State counterpart, became the de-facto chairmen of the factionalized opposition party. But unlike his counterpart Nyesom Wike who understood the terms of his engagement with the indigenes of Rivers state on the strength of his developmental strides which earned him awards from both near and wide, Fayose was swallowed by the party politics of the opposition party. We got a picture of where he was driving at with that, when he declared his intention to run for the presidency under the platform of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) when the dust of the leadership crisis within the PDP had settled with the stamp of the judgment of My Lord, the Hon. Justice Rhodes Vivour in a well considered decision. How much he still wants to push that ambition in the light of the developments of the last 48 hours would be anybody’s guess.

Suffice it to say that while Ayo Fayose entertained the whole world with theatrics and megalomania, pundits both at home and abroad struggled to decipher the socio-economic thrust of his government. Whereas states like Anambra, Lagos, Kebbi had become popular for its giant stride in the areas of Agricultural revolution and other index of economic growth, it was difficult to identify what Ayo Fayose was doing in bettering the lot of the people of Ekiti state apart from daily joining issues with the Buhari presidency. It was said that governance took a back seat under his superintendence while political chicanery became the order of the day. Until this day, it appears the sole stamp of his second-coming would be the newly built governor’s office, and the 1.3 kilometer   Fajuyi-Ojumose overhead bridge that cost the state some 6.4 billion Naira. In about three years of his superintendence, the debt profile of the state jerked up to some 56 billion naira as reported by the Debt Management Office (DMO) in a 2017 bulletin, thus setting backward the developmental clock of the state.

On account of what would pass for low performance in key areas of economic growth, the civil servants of Ekiti state, famous for its marginal FAAC allocation, paid dearly with withheld salaries (that at some point extended for as long as seven (7) months); and unremitted pensions for retiring members of staff. A master of the art of dramatic governance, Ayo Fayose found a way around his woeful performance however. He somehow found a connection with the people of Ekiti, not on the sheer size of the goodwill earned by his stellar performance, but for the uncanny ability to be involved in their mundane lives and circumstances. He roasted bole on the streets of Ekiti; he hobnobbed with the market women; he ate amala the local Yoruba delicacy at local bukas; he wore jean trousers, polo shirts and palm sandals to state functions; he made frequent stops at the agbojedi sector to have a drink with the men, and so on and so forth. Somehow, this endeared him to the people who found a contrast in this behavior from those of many elitist Nigerian politicians who related with their subjects in rather formal manner. Ayo Fayose knew this, and he seemed to have exploited it to his advantage. And so while other governors who owed salaries were pelted with stones and what not, Fayose struck a relationship with the people even in the face of their glaring misfortune of which he was a factor. Such was the mystic if you like, of this interesting character.

Perhaps conscious of the fact that he had not lived up to the minimum expectations of the people, Fayose sought a successor in a character whose loyalty he could vouch for, as his time in the helm of affairs in the state drew close. He found this in his deputy, the soft spoken Professor of Building, Kolapo Olusola Eleka. A man who contrasted the character of his boss in many ways. As controversy trailed the choice of his successor, Fayose in his now familiar antic  of going spiritual, told a beleaguered press and anybody who would listen, that the God he serves revealed the choice of his successor to him in a dream. His larger than life status dominated the whole process leading to the election. He visited nearly every media house to sell the candidacy of Kolapo. He was visible in all the campaigns─dancing, cursing and throwing tantrums at the ruling party that were never in short supply. As activities leading to the elections climaxed, it was difficult to decipher who was actually the PDP candidate between Fayose and his ‘political son’  on account of how much he domineered the entire process.

 

However, while saner minds waited for a strong and convincing reason while Kolapo should be his successor, Fayose  could not muster anything convincing but to spew blackmail and propaganda at will. He claimed that the Federal Government was billed to rig the process; that INEC had been briefed to carry this into effect and that the security agencies drafted to the state were to make this possible. Only few days ago, he appeared with a cervical collar and addressed a press conference telling the world that his life was under threat and that the police chief be held accountable should anything happen to his person. “I am in pains!” “I am in severe pains!” he cried. And as he casted his vote at his Afao polling unit on Saturday morning, he appeared with the cervical collar, apparently to rub things in. he must have hoped to curry the sentiments of the Ekiti indigenes with all the drama that was deployed into that. The jury is still out on how much that theatrical showpiece affected the whole process.

 

Until their job is done, what cannot be contested however, is that Fayose made a caricature of governance in his second coming as the governor of the state of about 3 million people. This much was seen in his response to a question put to him at an April 2018 edition of the popular Tv program─ “Politics Nationwide” anchored by the fine Seun Okin of the leading Channels Television. Asked what he has done for the people of Ekiti state to enable them heed his call of voting his preferred candidate, Fayose went about telling lame duck story of how he was seen frying garri with the local women in the streets of Ekiti, and dared the opposition in the state to do same. It was a response that purports to make a heavy weather of his popularity. At different times in that interview, he claimed that he is the most popular Ekiti son, and went about reeling out his political CV of being the only son of Ekiti to have defeated two incumbent administrations in the state, and at the same time telling his stunned host that it may not surprise him, if he becomes the first governor of the state to install his successor in office. Such was the height of his braggadocio. He must have underestimated the intelligence of the people of Ekiti with the way he made a show of his popularity.  At different points he played God, and carried on with the swagger of an aristocrat perhaps suffering under the illusion that he’d not be defeated by the opposition. Not least Kayode Fayemi of the APC.

But all of that ended yesterday. With the result of the election returning the former governor and until recently the minister of solid mineral, Mr. John Olukayode Fayemi of the Radio Kudirat fame, as the governor-elect having swept 12 out of the 16 local governments of the state after a keenly contested polls, governor Ayo Fayose must be coming to terms with the harsh reality that may hit him soon. He must henceforth deploy his spiritual clout to make sure that his opposition PDP unseats the incumbent administration come 2019, otherwise, he must brace up for the political storm he’ll be made to contend with. Without prejudicing the man, there is no question of him having not compromised the resources of Ekiti in his sworn ambition to install his deputy as his successor. Already, the EFCC has made statements suggesting resuming prosecuting him for his involvement in the infamous Ekiti integrated Poultry fraud, now that his days of immunity are numbered. Another way out for the man is to mend fence with his successor, the gentlemanly, John Kayode Fayemi in a political settlement that may have all his “sins” forgiven to afford him a quiet life out of power.

Whichever way the man’s fate would turn out, will be shaped by events to come. In the mean time, he must carry on with his tail in between his legs as with the proverbial tale of the tail wagging the dog with the bitter pangs of not joining the pantheon of governors who saw their preferred candidate succeeding them. He may now go and attend to his “pains”, and while at that, live with the sad reality of having inflicted even more pains to the people of Ekiti while he carried on with his leadership style that lacked grace and panache. He’ll be surely missed for the humour he brought to governance which was in itself, a therapy to the psychological wounds wrought by the four years of his clueless governance to the people of Ekiti. Barring other reported ugly factors that determined the outcome of the ballot, which by the way does not form the crux of this article, the truth remains however that the people have spoken. And their voices have been heard. And the whole world is not under any form of misapprehension as to the greatest loser of the events of last Saturday in Ekiti. If Ayo Fayose was a mystic, the events of the last 48 hours have left him utterly demystified. As at the time of concluding this article, some 30 hours or more after the announcement of the results of that election, the once garrulous and loquacious Fayose, has since gone taciturn; he has neither congratulated the winner of the polls nor berated the conduct of the elections as is quite uncharacteristic of him.

He must be under the shock of his life. And one can only hope that the boarding pass linking him to France is nothing close to the truth.

 

Raymond Nkannebe, a legal practitioner and public interest analyst wrote in from Lagos. Comments and reactions to raymondnkannebe@gmail.com.

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Opinion

Reimagining the African Leadership Paradigm: A Comprehensive Blueprint

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By Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD

“To lead Africa forward is to move from transactional authority to transformational stewardship—where institutions outlive individuals, data informs vision, and service is the only valid currency of governance” – Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD

The narrative of African leadership in the 21st century stands at a critical intersection of profound potential and persistent paradox. The continent, pulsating with the world’s youngest demographic and endowed with immense natural wealth, nonetheless contends with systemic challenges that stifle its ascent. This divergence between capacity and outcome signals not merely a failure of policy, but a deeper crisis of leadership philosophy and practice. As the global order undergoes seismic shifts, the imperative for African nations to fundamentally re-strategize their approach to governance has transitioned from an intellectual exercise to an existential necessity. Nigeria, by virtue of its demographic heft, economic scale, and cultural influence, serves as the continent’s most significant crucible for this transformation. The journey of Nigerian leadership from its current state to its potential apex offers a blueprint not only for its own 200 million citizens but for an entire continent in search of a new compass.

Deconstructing the Legacy Model: A Diagnosis of Systemic Failure

To construct a resilient future, we must first undertake an unflinching diagnosis of the present. The prevailing leadership archetype across much of Africa, with clear manifestations in Nigeria’s political economy, is built upon a foundation that has proven tragically unfit for purpose. This model is characterized by several interlocking dysfunctions:

·         The Primacy of Transactional Politics Over Transformational Vision: Governance has too often been reduced to a complex system of transactions—votes exchanged for short-term patronage, positions awarded for loyalty over competence, and resource allocation serving political expediency rather than national strategy. This erodes public trust and makes long-term, cohesive planning impossible.

·         The Tyranny of the Short-Term Electoral Cycle: Leadership decisions are frequently held hostage to the next election, sacrificing strategic investments in education, infrastructure, and industrialization on the altar of immediate, visible—yet fleeting—gains. This creates a perpetual cycle of reactive governance, preventing the execution of decade-spanning national projects.

·         Administrative Silos and Bureaucratic Inertia: Government ministries and agencies often operate as isolated fiefdoms, with limited inter-departmental collaboration. This siloed approach fragments policy implementation, leads to contradictory initiatives, and renders the state apparatus inefficient and unresponsive to complex, cross-sectoral challenges like climate change, public health, and national security.

·         The Demographic Disconnect: Africa’s most potent asset is its youth. Yet, a vast governance gap separates a dynamic, digitally-native, and globally-aware generation from political structures that remain opaque, paternalistic, and slow to adapt. This disconnect fuels alienation, brain drain, and social unrest.

·         The Weakness of Institutions and the Cult of Personality: When the strength of a state is vested in individuals rather than institutions, it creates systemic vulnerability. Independent judiciaries, professional civil services, and credible electoral commissions are weakened, leading to arbitrariness in the application of law, erosion of meritocracy, and a deep-seated crisis of public confidence.

The tangible outcomes of this flawed model are the headlines that define the continent’s challenges: infrastructure deficits that strangle commerce, public education and healthcare systems in states of distress, jobless economic growth, multifaceted security threats, and the chronic hemorrhage of human capital. To re-strategize leadership is to directly address these outputs by redesigning the very system that produces them.

Pillars of a Reformed Leadership Architecture: A Holistic Framework

The new leadership paradigm must be constructed not as a minor adjustment, but as a holistic architectural endeavor. It requires foundational pillars that are interdependent, mutually reinforcing, and built to endure beyond political transitions.

1. The Philosophical Core: Embracing Servant-Leadership and Ethical Stewardship
The most profound change must be internal—a recalibration of the leader’s fundamental purpose. The concept of the leader as a benevolent “strongman” must give way to the model of the servant-leader. This philosophy, rooted in both timeless African communal values (ubuntu) and modern ethical governance, posits that the true leader exists to serve the people, not vice versa. It is characterized by deep empathy, radical accountability, active listening, and a commitment to empowering others. Success is measured not by the leader’s personal accumulation of power or wealth, but by the tangible flourishing, security, and expanded opportunities of the citizenry. This ethos fosters trust, the essential currency of effective governance.

2. Strategic Foresight and Evidence-Based Governance
Leadership must be an exercise in building the future, not just administering the present. This requires the collaborative development of a clear, compelling, and inclusive national vision—a strategic narrative that aligns the energies of government, private sector, and civil society. For Nigeria, frameworks like Nigeria’s Agenda 2050 and the National Development Plan must be de-politicized and treated as binding national covenants. Furthermore, in the age of big data, governance must transition from intuition-driven to evidence-based. This necessitates significant investment in data collection, analytics, and policy-informing research. Whether designing social safety nets, deploying security resources, or planning agricultural subsidies, decisions must be illuminated by rigorous data, ensuring efficiency, transparency, and measurable impact.

3. Institutional Fortification: Building the Enduring Pillars of State
A nation’s longevity and stability are directly proportional to the strength and independence of its institutions. Re-strategizing leadership demands an unwavering commitment to institutional architecture:

·         An Impervious Judiciary: The rule of law must be absolute, with a judicial system insulated from political and financial influence, guaranteeing justice for the powerful and the marginalized alike.

·         Electoral Integrity as Sacred Trust: Democratic legitimacy springs from credible elections. Investing in independent electoral commissions, transparent technology, and robust legal frameworks is non-negotiable for political stability.

·         A Re-professionalized Civil Service: The bureaucracy must be transformed into a merit-driven, technologically adept, and well-remunerated engine of state, shielded from the spoils system and empowered to implement policy effectively.

·         Robust, Transparent Accountability Ecosystems: Anti-corruption agencies require genuine operational independence, adequate funding, and protection. Complementing this, transparent public procurement platforms and mandatory asset declarations for public officials must become normalized practice.

4. Collaborative and Distributed Leadership: The Power of the Collective
The monolithic state cannot solve wicked problems alone. The modern leader must be a convener-in-chief, architecting platforms for sustained collaboration. This involves actively fostering a triple-helix partnership:

·         The Public Sector sets the vision, regulates, and provides enabling infrastructure.

·         The Private Sector drives investment, innovation, scale, and job creation.

·         Academia and Civil Society contribute research, grassroots intelligence, independent oversight, and specialized implementation capacity.
This model distributes responsibility, leverages diverse expertise, and fosters innovative solutions—from public-private partnerships in infrastructure to tech-driven civic engagement platforms.

5. Human Capital Supremacy: The Ultimate Strategic Investment
A nation’s most valuable asset walks on two feet. Re-strategized leadership places a supreme, non-negotiable priority on developing human potential. For Nigeria and Africa, this demands a generational project:

·         Revolutionizing Education: Curricula must be overhauled to foster critical thinking, digital literacy, STEM proficiency, and entrepreneurial mindset—skills for the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Investment in teacher training and educational infrastructure is paramount.

·         Building a Preventive, Resilient Health System: Focus must shift from curative care in central hospitals to robust, accessible primary healthcare. A healthy population is a productive population, forming the basis of economic resilience.

·         Creating an Enabling Environment for Talent: Beyond education and health, leadership must provide the ecosystem where talent can thrive: reliable electricity, ubiquitous broadband, access to venture capital, and a regulatory environment that encourages innovation and protects intellectual property. The goal is to make the domestic environment more attractive than the diaspora for the continent’s best minds.

6. Assertive, Strategic Engagement in Global Affairs
African leadership must shed any vestiges of a supplicant mentality and adopt a posture of strategic agency. This means actively shaping continental and global agendas:

·         Leveraging the AfCFTA: Moving beyond signing agreements to actively dismantling non-tariff barriers, harmonizing standards, and investing in cross-border infrastructure to turn the agreement into a real engine of intra-African trade and industrialization.

·         Diplomacy for Value Creation: Foreign policy should be strategically deployed to attract sustainable foreign direct investment, secure technology transfer agreements, and build partnerships based on mutual benefit, not aid dependency.

·         Advocacy for Structural Reform: African leaders must collectively and persistently advocate for reforms in global financial institutions and multilateral forums to ensure a more equitable international system.

The Nigerian Imperative: From National Challenges to a National Charter

Applying this framework to Nigeria requires translating universal principles into specific, context-driven actions:

·         Integrated Security as a Foundational Priority: Security strategy must be comprehensive, blending advanced intelligence capabilities, professionalized security forces, with parallel investments in community policing, youth employment programs in high-risk areas, and accelerated development to address the root causes of instability.

·         A Determined Pursuit of Economic Complexity: Leadership must orchestrate a decisive shift from rent-seeking in the oil sector to value creation across diversified sectors: commercialized agriculture, light and advanced manufacturing, a thriving creative industry, and a dominant digital services sector.

·         Constitutional and Governance Re-engineering: To harness its diversity, Nigeria requires a sincere national conversation on restructuring. This likely entails moving towards a more authentic federalism with greater fiscal autonomy for states, devolution of powers, and mechanisms that ensure equitable resource distribution and inclusive political representation.

·         Pioneering a Just Energy Transition: Nigeria must craft a unique energy pathway—strategically utilizing its gas resources for domestic industrialization and power generation, while simultaneously positioning itself as a regional hub for renewable energy technology, investment, and innovation.

Conclusion: A Collective Endeavor of Audacious Hope

Re-strategizing leadership in Africa and in Nigeria is not an event, but a generational process. It is not the abandonment of culture but its evolution—melding the deep African traditions of community, consensus, and elder wisdom with the modern imperatives of transparency, innovation, and individual rights. This task extends far beyond the political class. It is a summons to a new generation of leaders in every sphere: the tech entrepreneur in Yaba, the reform-minded civil servant in Abuja, the agri-preneur in Kebbi, the investigative journalist in Lagos, and the community activist in the Niger Delta.

Ultimately, this is an endeavor of audacious hope. It is the conscious choice to build systems stronger than individuals, institutions more enduring than terms of office, and a national identity richer than our ethnic sum. Nigeria possesses all the requisite raw materials for greatness: human brilliance, cultural richness, and natural bounty. The final, indispensable ingredient is a leadership strategy worthy of its people. The blueprint is now detailed; the call to action is urgent. The future awaits not our complaints, but our constructive and courageous labor. Let the work begin in earnest.

Dr. Tolulope A. Adegoke is a globally recognized scholar-practitioner and thought leader at the nexus of security, governance, and strategic leadership. His work addresses complex institutional challenges, with a specialized focus on West African security dynamics, conflict resolution, and sustainable development.

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Opinion

Rivers State: Two Monkeys Burn the Village to Prove They Are Loyal to Jagaban

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By Sly Edaghese

Teaser

Rivers State is not collapsing by accident. It is being offered as a sacrifice. Two men, driven by fear of irrelevance and hunger for protection, have chosen spectacle over stewardship—setting fire to a whole people’s future just to prove who kneels better before power.

There comes a point when a political tragedy degenerates into farce, and the farce mutates into a curse. Rivers State has crossed that point. What is unfolding there is not governance, not even conflict—it is ritual madness, a grotesque contest in which two men are willing to burn an entire state just to be noticed by one man sitting far away in Abuja.

This is not ambition.

This is desperation wearing designer jacket.

At the center of this inferno stand two performers who have mistaken power for immortality and loyalty for slavery. One is a former god. The other is a former servant. Both are now reduced to naked dancers in a marketplace, grinding their teeth and tearing flesh to entertain Jagaban.

The first is Nyesom Wike—once feared, once untouchable, now frantic. A man whose political identity has collapsed into noise, threats, and recycled bravado. His ministerial appointment was never a validation of statesmanship; it was a severance package for betrayal. Tinubu did not elevate Wike because he admired him—he tolerated him because he was useful. And usefulness, in politics, is key, but it has an expiry date.

Wike governed Rivers State not as a public trust but as a private estate. He did not build institutions; he built dependencies. He did not groom leaders; he bred loyalists. Before leaving office, he salted the land with his men—lawmakers, commissioners, council chairmen—so that even in absence, Rivers State would still answer to his shadow. His obsession was simple and sick: if I cannot rule it, no one else must.

Enter Siminalayi Fubara—a man selected, not tested; installed, not trusted by the people but trusted by his maker. Fubara was meant to be an invisible power in a visible office—a breathing signature, a ceremonial governor whose only real duty was obedience.

But power has a way of awakening even the most timid occupant.

Fubara wanted to act like a governor. That single desire triggered a full-scale political assassination attempt—not with bullets, but with institutions twisted into weapons. A state of emergency was declared with obscene haste. The governor was suspended like a naughty schoolboy. His budget was butchered. His local government elections were annulled and replaced with a pre-arranged outcome favorable to his tormentor. Lawmakers who defected and lost their seats by constitutional law were resurrected like political zombies and crowned legitimate.

This was not law.

This was organized humiliation.

And when degradation alone failed, Wike went further—dragging Fubara into a room to sign an agreement that belonged more to a slave plantation than a democratic republic.

One clause alone exposed the rot:
👉 Fubara must never seek a second term.

In plain language: you may warm the chair, but you will never own it.

Then came the most revealing act of all—Wike leaked the agreement himself. A man so intoxicated by dominance that he thought publicizing oppression would strengthen his grip.

That leak was not strategy; it was confession. It told Nigerians that this was never about peace, order, or party discipline—it was about absolute control over another human being.

But history has a cruel sense of humor.

While Wike strutted like a victorious warlord and his loyal lawmakers sharpened new knives, Fubara did something dangerous: he adapted. He studied power where it truly resides. He learned Tinubu’s language—the language of survival, alignment, and betrayal without apology. Then he did what Nigerian politics rewards most:

He crossed over.

Not quietly. Not shamefully. But theatrically. He defected to the APC, raised a party card numbered 001 and crowned himself leader of the party in Rivers State. He pledged to deliver the same Rivers people to Tinubu just as Wike also has pledged.

That moment was not boldness.

It was cold-blooded realism.

And in one stroke, Wike’s myth collapsed.

The once-feared enforcer became a shouting relic—touring local governments like a prophet nobody believes anymore, issuing warnings that land on deaf ears, reminding Nigerians of favors that no longer matter. He threatened APC officials, cursed betrayal, and swore eternal vengeance. But vengeance without access is just noise.

Today, the humiliation is complete.

Fubara enters rooms Wike waits outside.

Presidential aides shake hands with the new alignment.

The old king rants in press conferences, sounding increasingly like a man arguing with a locked door.

And yet, the darkest truth remains: neither of these men cares about Rivers State.

One is fighting to remain relevant.

The other is fighting to remain protected.

The people—the markets, the schools, the roads, the civil servants—are expendable extras in a drama scripted far above their heads.

Some say Tinubu designed this blood sport—unable to discard Wike outright, he simply unleashed his creation against him. Whether genius or negligence, the effect is the same: Rivers State is being eaten alive by ambition.

This is what happens when politics loses shame.

This is what happens when loyalty replaces competence.

This is what happens when leaders treat states like bargaining chips and citizens like ashes.

Two monkeys are burning the village—not to save it, not to rule it—but to prove who can scream loudest while it burns.

And Jagaban watches, hands folded.

But when the fire dies down, when the music stops, when the applause fades, there will be nothing left to govern—only ruins, regret, and two exhausted dancers staring at the ashes, finally realizing that power does not clap forever.

Sly Edaghese sent in this piece from Wisconsin, USA.

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Opinion

What Will Be the End of Wike?

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By Pelumi Olajengbesi Esq.

Every student of politics should now be interested in what will be the end of Wike. Wike is one of those names that mean different things to different people within Nigeria’s political culture. To his admirers, he is courage and capacity, to his critics, he is disruption and excess, and to neutral observers like me, he is simply a fascinating case study in the mechanics of power.

In many ways, he was instrumental to the emergence of President Tinubu, and he has long sat like a lord over the politics of Rivers, having pushed aside nearly every person who once mattered in that space. He waged war against his party, the PDP, and drove it to the edge. Wike waged war against his successor and reduced him to submission. He fights anyone who stands in his way.

He is powerful, loved by many, and deeply irritating to many others. Yet for all his strength, one suspects that Wike does not enjoy peace of mind, because before he is done with one fight, another fight is already forming. From Rivers to Ibadan, Abuja to Imo, and across the country, he is the only right man in his own way. He is constantly in motion, constantly in battle, and constantly singing “agreement is agreement,” while forgetting that politics is merely negotiation and renegotiation.

To his credit, Wike may often be the smartest political planner in every room. He reads everybody’s next move and still creates a countermove. In that self image, Governor Fubara was meant to remain on a leash, manageable through pressure, inducement, and the suggestion that any disobedience would be framed as betrayal of the President and the new federal order.

But politics has a way of punishing anyone who believes control is permanent. The moment Fubara joined the APC, the battlefield shifted, and old tricks began to lose their edge. Whether by real alignment, perceived alignment, or even the mere possibility of a different alignment, once Fubara was no longer boxed into the corner Wike designed for him, Wike’s entire method required review. The fight may remain, but the terrain has changed. When terrain changes, power must either adapt or harden into miscalculation.

It is within this context that the gradually brewing crisis deserves careful attention, because what is emerging is not merely another loud exchange, but a visible clash with vital stakeholders within the Tinubu government and the wider ruling party environment. There is now a fixed showdown with the APC National Secretary, a man who is himself not allergic to confrontation, and who understands that a fight, if properly timed, can yield political advantage, institutional relevance, and bargaining power. When such a figure publicly demands that Nyesom Wike should resign as a minister in Tinubu’s cabinet, it is not a joke, It is about who is permitted to exercise influence, in what space, and on what terms. It is also about the anxiety that follows every coalition built on convenience rather than shared identity, because convenience has no constitution and gratitude is not a structure.

Wike embodies that anxiety in its most dramatic form. He is a man inside government, but not fully inside the party that controls government. He is a man whose usefulness to a winning project is undeniable, yet whose political style constantly reminds the winners that he is not naturally theirs. In every ruling party, there is a crucial difference between allies and stakeholders. Allies help you win, and stakeholders own the structure that decides who gets what after victory. Wike’s problem is that he has operated like both. His support for Tinubu, and his capacity to complicate the opposition’s arithmetic, gave him relevance at the centre. That relevance always tempts a man to behave like a co-owner.

Wike has built his political life on the logic of territorial command. He defines the space, polices the gate, punishes disloyalty, rewards submission, and keeps opponents permanently uncertain. That method is brutally effective when a man truly owns and controls the structure, because it produces fear, and fear produces compliance. This is why Wike insists on controlling the Rivers equation, even when that insistence conflicts with the preferences of the national centre.

The APC leadership is not reacting only to words. It is reacting to what the words represent. When a minister speaks as though a state chapter of the ruling party should be treated like a guest in that state’s politics, the party reads it as an attempt to subordinate its internal structure to an external will. Even where the party has tolerated Wike because of what he helped deliver, it cannot tolerate a situation where its own officials begin to look over their shoulders for permission from a man who is not formally one of them. Once a party believes its chain of command is being bypassed, it will choose institutional survival over interpersonal loyalty every time.

Wike’s predicament is the classic risk of power without full institutional belonging. Informal influence can be louder than formal power, but it is also more fragile because it depends on continuous tolerance from those who control formal instruments. These instruments include party hierarchy, candidate selection, and the legitimacy that comes with membership.

An outsider ally can be celebrated while he is useful, but the coalition that celebrates him can begin to step away the moment his methods create more cost than value. The cost is not only electoral, it can also be organisational. A ruling party approaching the next political cycle becomes sensitive to discipline, structure, and coherence. If the leadership suspects that one person’s shadow is creating factions, confusing loyalties, or humiliating party officials, it will attempt to cut that shadow down. It may not do so because it hates the person, but because it fears the disorder and the precedent.

So the question returns with greater urgency, what will be the end of Wike? If it comes, it may not come with fireworks. Strongmen often do not fall through one decisive attack. They are slowly redesigned out of relevance. The end can look like isolation, with quiet withdrawal of access, gradual loss of influence over appointments, and the emergence of new centres of power within the same territory he once treated as private estate. It can look like neutralisation, with Wike remaining in office, but watching the political value of the office drain because the presidency and the party no longer need his battles. It can look like forced realignment, with him compelled to fully submit to the ruling party structure, sacrificing the freedom of being an independent ally, or losing the cover that federal power provides.

Yet it is also possible that his story does not end in collapse, because Wike is not a novice. The same instinct that made him influential can also help him survive if he adapts. But adaptation would require a difficult shift. It would require a move from territorial warfare to coalition management. It would require a move from ruling by fear to ruling by accommodation. It would require a move from being merely feared to being structurally useful without becoming structurally threatening. Wike may be running out of time.

Pelumi Olajengbesi is a Legal Practitioner and Senior Partner at Law Corridor

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