Featured

…Elections Will Test Nigeria’s Democracy…What The Economist Said of Nigeria’s 2015 Election

Published

7 years ago

February 23, 2019

Eric

The national and state elections due to begin in Nigeria on March 28th are likely to be the closest and most fiercely contested since the restoration of democracy in Africa’s most populous nation in 1999. There is a lack of confidence in the poll organisers, concern about the volatile environment in which voting will take place and anxiety about the undemocratic and belligerent tendencies of Nigerian politicians. It is virtually impossible to envisage an outcome to the election period that does not involve significant instability. Although we think Nigeria will just about negotiate the election period without a complete breakdown in security, there is a real possibility that the instability will be serious enough to break Nigeria’s democracy, or even split the country apart.

The run-up to the vote has been intense with provocative campaigning by politicians in both the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the main opposition, the All Progressives Congress (APC). Cause for concern has also come from the poor preparation by the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) for the crucial polls, which has undermined public confidence in the state agency’s ability to conduct smooth and fair voting in presidential and National Assembly polls on March 28th, followed by governorship and state assembly ballots on April 11th. A six-week postponement of the elections, announced a week before the original February 14th start date, stemmed from security concerns, particularly the Islamist insurgency in the north-east, and also INEC’s failure to distribute sufficient numbers of electoral cards to voters on time. The unease and apprehension has also affected the financial markets where share prices have been subdued and the Nigerian currency, the naira, has taken a battering as investors feel nervous about the impact of the ensuing power struggle on the stability of Africa’s largest economy.

Election-related instability is not a new phenomenon

Pre-elections jitters are not new in Nigeria. Virtually every major election in the country since independence from the UK in 1960 was preceded by some level of political turmoil, often owing to grandstanding by rent-seeking politicians. Furthermore, the nation’s electoral agency has on most voting occasions shown an incredible lack of preparedness, which in 2011 resulted in a week-long postponement of the polls, announced on the day voting was supposed to start. In addition, the aftermath of every major election has featured allegations of rigging and fraud, as well as some violence, which led to military coups in 1966 and 1983; and rioting that cost hundreds of lives in 2011.

Despite the drama and mayhem that have accompanied the four general elections held so far under the Fourth Republic, this current period of civilian governance has survived and arguably become more resilient and adept at weathering political storms. Indeed, this 15-year-old civilian republic has lasted longer than the preceding spell of army rule, although overall Nigeria has still been under military rule for more years than it has enjoyed democracy.

The stakes are higher than usual

Nonetheless, a number of factors make this year’s elections riskier than previous ones. This is the first time that the ruling party, which has won every presidential vote since 1999, faces an opposition that has broad support and reasonable prospects of victory. PDP candidates easily won past presidential contests, largely because they faced challengers who lacked broad support across Nigeria’s diverse ethnic and regional groupings. However, a former military ruler, Muhammadu Buhari, the candidate of the APC making his fourth consecutive attempt at the presidency, should this time benefit from the wider support of a party created in 2013 from a merger of three main opposition parties, with the prime purpose of wresting power from the PDP. Mr Buhari, a northern Muslim, took 32% of the overall vote in 2011, sweeping the largely Muslim north-west and north-east but performing poorly in the predominately Christian south. On March 28th the 72‑year‑old retired general is likely to do well in the south-west, a stronghold of one of the parties that make-up the APC, and do better in parts of the south-east. As for the 57‑year‑old president, Goodluck Jonathan, a southern Christian who won 59% of the 2011 vote, he is likely to once again get the support of his kinsmen in the oil-producing south and probably maintain strong performances in the south-east and in the ethnically mixed north-central zones. However, it is unclear to what extent the emergence of the APC alliance will erode his support in south-west, where in the past many voters have opted for opposition candidates in state elections while casting for the ruling party in the presidential ballot.

As with the 2011 elections, the 2015 polls are taking place against the background of the insurgency of Boko Haram, a Sunni Islamist fundamentalist group seeking to carve out an Islamic state in northern Nigeria. But the group has become stronger and poses a greater threat to democracy than it did four years ago. The mayhem it has caused in the north-east, including capturing several towns and villages, has raised doubts about the possibility of holding free elections in the worst-affected parts of the north-east. Since the postponement of the polls in mid-February, the Nigerian military, with the assistance of troops from Niger, Cameroon and Chad, have pushed to retake most of the territories under the militants’ control. Nonetheless, the security situation in the region remains precarious, with militants probably still able to strike with guerrilla attacks during the elections and to exacerbate any post-election violence in the country.

Neither side will willingly concede defeat

The flipside of concerns about Boko Haram and fears of a repeat of rioting in the north if Mr Buhari loses on March 28th is worry about a resurgence of ethnic nationalist militancy in the oil-producing Niger Delta if Mr Jonathan is defeated. Militants, who waged armed struggles for local control of mineral resources up until 2009, have threatened to resume their insurgency in the event of a Buhari presidency. Threats made by hardliners on both sides of the political divide to unleash catastrophe if their side loses is probably mostly sabre rattling that has come to be associated with election seasons in Nigeria. Nonetheless, the stakes are high. If Mr Buhari suffers a fourth presidential election defeat, he will probably not get another chance to achieve his ambition of returning to power through the ballot box. The retired general’s supporters will be less likely to accept defeat graciously if, as widely expected, the results of his latest bid for power are close, even if the courts back the PDP victory. On the other hand, if Mr Jonathan is defeated, Nigeria may enter uncharted territory, in which the ruling party, still in control of the state security apparatus, disputes the outcome of the presidential election.

There is not a feasible scenario in which Nigeria avoids significant post-election unrest. The question is over the magnitude of that unrest. Nigeria has shown a high threshold for remaining intact through previous periods of significant instability and this will probably remain true this time. However, the risk of a more substantial breakdown—precipitating a period of ungovernability, a coup or even civil war—are the highest of any time since the return to civilian rule in 1999.

Featured

Sowore ‘Slumps’ Amid Police Teargas During Abuja Protest

Published

10 hours ago

June 12, 2026

Eric

There was panic on Friday after human rights activist, Omoyele Sowore, collapsed following a confrontation with the police during a Democracy Day protest at the Unity Fountain in Abuja.

Reports said that Sowore collapsed after police operatives moved to disperse protesters gathered to demonstrate against insecurity, economic hardship and bad governance.

The demonstrators were dispersed after security personnel fired teargas canisters at the protesters in an apparent attempt to break up the gathering.

Following the incident, Sowore has reportedly been taken to an undisclosed hospital for further examination and treatment.

Featured

Global Stage, Local Heart: Davido Champions Justice for Kidnapped Oyo Schoolchildren at FIFA Concert

Published

19 hours ago

June 12, 2026

Eric

By Shakirat Akintola

He may be selling out arenas worldwide and headlining some of the biggest global stages, but Afrobeats megastar Davido proved this week that his heart remains firmly with the people of Nigeria.

On Wednesday night, during his highly anticipated performance at the official FIFA World Cup Countdown Concert in Los Angeles, the “Unavailable” crooner turned a massive moment of global celebration into a powerful, intentional act of advocacy.

Walking onto the Crypto.com Arena stage, the international icon chose not to wear high-end luxury fashion, but rather a custom black leather jacket designed to honor the 39 schoolchildren and seven teachers violently abducted from the Oriire Local Government Area of Oyo State.
A Global Icon Who Refuses to Forget His Roots

For an artist operating at Davido’s level, navigating massive global brands like FIFA usually comes with strict, highly sanitized corporate boundaries. Yet, the singer intentionally used his massive platform to ensure that the tragedy unfolding back home would not be swept under the rug by international media.

Backstage and throughout his high-energy performance of hits like “Fall,” the singer made sure his wardrobe spoke volumes. The front of his jacket was adorned with green circular buttons, each bearing the individual name of a student or teacher taken from the Ahoro-Esinele community in May.

In a heartbreaking and meticulously planned detail, the names of those still held in captivity were written in white, while the names of the victims who have tragically already died during the ordeal were highlighted in stark red. Across the back of the jacket, the message was clear and unmissable to the millions watching worldwide: “BRING THEM HOME.”

“We Represent Everywhere We Go”
Speaking moments before he climbed the stage alongside international electronic group Major Lazer, Davido was visibly carrying the weight of the situation, showing that his global success hasn’t detached him from the realities facing everyday Nigerians.

“Peace and love everywhere. May God be with the families of the abducted and the ones who have been killed,” Davido said in an emotional backstage address. “They still haven’t been rescued, we’re praying to God every day. We’re also praying to God that the government hastens… My country is going through a lot. We represent everywhere we go.”

This isn’t a passive, one-off gesture for the singer. Despite a grueling international schedule ahead of the 2026 World Cup—where he is prominently featured on the tournament’s official soundtrack album—Davido has consistently used his massive social media presence to demand immediate, decisive action from both federal and state authorities.

Amplifying the Cry for Help

By bringing the Oriire local tragedy to one of the premier entertainment capitals of the world, Davido has forcefully inserted Nigeria’s security challenges into the global conversation.

Back home, the crisis remains critical. The ongoing hostage situation has already sparked a total shutdown of public schools in Oyo State, with the Nigeria Union of Teachers (NUT) declaring an indefinite strike until their colleagues and students are safely returned.

In a landscape where international superstars are often criticized for becoming disconnected from local struggles, Davido’s bold FIFA showcase serves as a stark reminder of what true cultural ambassadorship looks like. He didn’t just perform for the world; he made the world look at the faces and names of the people who need them most.

Featured

Statement on the State of the Nation by Some Concerned Nigerians

Published

3 days ago

June 9, 2026

Eric

We are a group of concerned Nigerians, alarmed at increasing threats to the Nigerian Nation and desirous of sharing our concerns with fellow citizens.

Our assessment of the state of the Nation reveals that Nigeria stands at a dangerous crossroads where rising insecurity, an alarming level of electoral manipulation by government, and the weakening of democratic institutions are converging into a national crisis that threatens the country’s survival.

Nigeria faces a grave threat to its foundational constitutional principle of the separation of powers. Checks and balances between the branches of government have been imperilled.

The legislative branch has been placed under near total control of the executive branch. The judiciary appears to have lost both its independence and its integrity. There are no checks on the powers of the executive who now govern as they please without accountability or respect for the people’s concerns.

Institutions have been compromised, weakened, and subordinated to the interests of the executive arm of government. This erosion of institutional independence has fuelled public distrust to its highest level in our history creating a crisis of political exclusion and impunity that is pushing violent extremism, organized crime, and communal conflict to a tipping point.

To reverse this trajectory, Nigeria must urgently recommit to democratic accountability, judicial independence, and institutional reforms that strengthen the rule of law. The electoral processes must be transparent, credible, and insulated from executive interference.

The crisis in Nigeria cannot be separated from the broader instability engulfing the Sahel region. The spread of terrorism, arms trafficking, unconstitutional changes of government, and porous borders across countries such as Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger continue to intensify insecurity in Nigeria and the wider Lake Chad Basin. The collapse of regional cooperation and democratic governance in parts of the Sahel further emboldens armed groups, weakens state authority, and undermines civilian protection across West Africa.

Regional security cooperation between Nigeria and Sahelian states should be revitalized by establishing strong bilateral and multilateral platforms for intelligence sharing, border governance, and community-based peacebuilding initiatives.

Equally important is investing in youth employment, education, social protection, and local conflict resolution mechanisms to address the root causes of radicalization and insecurity.

Recommendations

1. Government should as a matter of urgency recognise that insecurity in the Sahel fuels the Nigerian crisis and that rapprochement between AES (Alliance of Sahel States) and ECOWAS is an important element in Nigeria’s national interest.

2. Government should immediately appoint a high-level Special Envoy for the Sahel to begin the urgent task of rebuilding trust between Nigeria, the AES and ECOWAS while revamping regional mechanisms for peace and security.

3. Civil society organisations should actively sensitize citizens and strengthen public demand for accountability. Nigerians must be bold and courageous in protecting civic rights and resisting the current climate of restricting civic space.

4. We call on the Private Sector as critical stakeholders in the nation-state agenda to continue to support and demand accountability in governance and the promotion of the rule of law as the basic premise of economic progress and nation building. Professional bodies and associations must rise to the challenge of building a broad national consensus to oppose tyranny and ensure maintenance of checks and balances in governance and the protection of the rule of law.

5. We call on our traditional leaders and members of the clergy to rise to the full weight of their moral and civic authority to promote peaceful co-existence, solidarity, and inter-faith dialogue to arrest the current slide to criminality and civil disorder.

6. Given the clear and consistent indications of the lack of neutrality and competence of INEC, professional bodies such as the Nigerian Bar Association, Unions, and other civic groups must set up mechanism of engaging the electoral body to ensure that the 2027 elections are free, fair and credible.

7. The Judiciary must address the perception of its complicity to stall democratic processes. It must remain independent and uphold the rule of law. As a matter of urgency, the Nigerian Bar Association must call its members to order for professional conduct and strengthen its monitoring on the judiciary, it must stay alert and patriotic and ensure political actors play by the rule. The National Judicial Council must set up a framework for holding judges accountable for decisions they take in the context of electoral process.

DATED AT ABUJA, NIGERIA 8th JUNE 2026

1. Dr. Husseini Abdu
2. Amb. Fatima Balla OON
3. Dr. Usman Bugaje
4. Prof. Ibrahim Gambari, CON
5. Dr. Yahaya Hashim
6. Prof. Jibrin Ibrahim
7. Prof. Attahiru Muhammadu Jega OFR
8. Prof. Mohammed Kuna
9. Abubakar Balarabe Mahmoud, SAN, OON
10. Mal Kabiru Yusuf