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IMF Warns Nigeria of Debt Crisis, Urges Diversification

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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) yesterday warned Nigeria and Sub-Saharan African economies to check rising levels of debts, diversify their revenue bases or face crisis.

Nigeria’s debt profile was N22.3 trillion as at June 30, 2018. About two-thirds of the government’s revenues go into servicing interest payments, with the principal still waiting for redemption at maturity.

The IMF advised the country to guard against the temptation to let higher oil prices delay reforms, warning that despite the recent recovery, oil prices are projected to remain below the 2013 peak.

It also reaffirmed the World Bank Group’s growth reversal at 1.9 per cent from 2.1 per cent for 2018 and 2.3 per cent in 2019, with 0.4 per cent up compared to April 2018 forecast.

Unveiling the World Economic Outlook titled, “Challenges to Steady Growth”, at the ongoing yearly meeting of the IMF/World Bank Group, in Bali, Indonesia, the Economic Counsellor of IMF Maurice Obstfeld admitted growth rebound in Nigeria and other sub-Saharan African nations, saying the trend would be buoyed by the impact of recovering oil production and prices.

Nigeria’s growth is projected to increase from 0.8 per cent in 2017 to 1.9 per cent in 2018 and 2.3 per cent in 2019, 0.4 percentage point higher than the April 2018 forecast.

On the rising obligations of the sub-region’s economies, Obstfeld pointed out that strengthening fiscal positions was necessary to reduce debt vulnerabilities.

“Boosting non-oil revenues and continuing fiscal consolidation plans remain key goals for oil exporters.

The focus should be on growth-friendly fiscal adjustment, with a shift in spending toward productive and social outlays accompanied by effective domestic revenue mobilisation, broadening of tax base and strengthening of revenue administration.

“Moreover, enhancing financial resilience through proactive banking supervision, ensuring adequate provisioning for losses by banks and improving resolution frameworks to keep expensive public bailouts at bay can help foster a financial system supportive of growth.”

The IMF report also warned that most countries must build fiscal buffers to make room for policy responses to the “next recession” and reduce the long-term costs of servicing high public debts.

The executive director, Jubilee USA, Eric LeCompte, said there was heightened anxiety about the downturn in economic growth.

According to him, the IMF report reminds the world that inequality remains a serious problem, with economies not safe from financial crisis.

IMF’s disclosure came as President Muhammadu Buhari seeks approval for a fresh $2,868,540,000 external loan.

The request was contained in two separate letters to both chambers of the National Assembly and was read by Senate President Bukola Saraki at plenary yesterday.

The president said the money would be used to partly fund the 2018 budget.

Giving a breakdown of the loan, Buhari explained that $2.786 billion would be borrowed from the international capital market for part-financing of the 2018 budget’s fiscal deficit and financing of key infrastructure projects.

The Federal Government would also need to raise another $82.54 million from the international capital market to refinance the balance of $500 million mature Eurobonds.

The president’s letter reads: “Pursuant to Sections 21 (1) and 27 (1) of the Debt Management Office (Establishment Etc) Act, 2003, I hereby request distinct and specific resolutions of the National Assembly to issue USD2.786 billion in Eurobonds and other securities in the international capital market for the implementation of New External Borrowing approved in the Federal Government of Nigeria’s 2018 Appropriation Act for the part-financing of the 2018 budget’s fiscal deficit, as well as to finance key infrastructure projects in the 2018 budget; and issue Eurobonds and other securities in the international capital market for the refinancing of USD82.54 million, being the balance of the five-year USD 500 million mature Eurobonds.”

The president also sought Senate’s approval for the N346 billion Niger Delta Development Commission’s (NDDC) budget for 2018.

A breakdown of the budget indicates that while N313.883 billion should be appropriated for capital expenditure, N31 billion was earmarked for recurrent expenditure.

The Guardian

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Files Lawsuit Against FG, NNPC, Marketers over Petrol Import Licences

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Dangote Petroleum Refinery has filed a fresh lawsuit against the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) and several fuel marketers, seeking to overturn fuel import licences issued by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

According to court documents filed at the Federal High Court in Lagos and cited by Reuters, the refinery is asking the court to nullify import permits recently granted or renewed by the regulator, arguing that the approvals violate an earlier directive ordering all parties to maintain the status quo pending the determination of the case.

The legal action comes at a time when Nigeria is recording a sharp decline in petrol imports due to rising domestic refining capacity, largely driven by output from the Dangote Refinery.

In its filing, Dangote Refinery argued that Nigerian law permits fuel importation only when local production is unable to meet national demand. The company maintained that continued issuance of import licences undermines its operations as it ramps up production from its multi-billion-dollar refinery located on the outskirts of Lagos.

Fuel marketers, however, have consistently defended importation, insisting that imports remain necessary to guarantee a stable supply and prevent shortages across the country.

This is not the first dispute between Dangote Refinery and fuel importers. In 2025, the company filed a similar suit against NNPC Ltd and several marketers, including AYM Shafa Ltd, A.A. Rano Ltd, T. Time Petroleum Ltd, 2015 Petroleum Ltd and Matrix Petroleum Services Ltd, while also seeking ₦100 billion in damages. The suit was later withdrawn without explanation.

Recent industry data showed petrol imports dropped to 965.52 million litres in Q1 2026 from 2.43 billion litres in the same period of 2025. Meanwhile, supply from local refineries rose to 3.18 billion litres, accounting for about 76.7 percent of Nigeria’s petrol supply during the quarter.

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World Bank Flags ‘Hidden Spending System’ Diverting N34.53trn of Nigeria’s Revenue

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The World Bank has raised concerns over Nigeria’s fiscal framework, revealing that more than N34.53 trillion was diverted from federation revenue over the past three years through pre-distribution deductions.

In its latest Nigeria Development Update obtained from its website, the global lender disclosed that although total federation revenue rose sharply to about N84 trillion between 2023 and 2025, about 41 per cent of the earnings did not reach the Federation Account for distribution to the federal, state and local governments.

According to the report, gross revenue increased from N17.08 trillion in 2023 to an estimated N37.44 trillion in 2025. However, deductions classified as “first-line charges” also rose significantly, from N6.22 trillion to nearly N15 trillion within the same period, reducing the pool of funds available for distribution.

The World Bank noted that the development has created a paradox in which rising revenues have not translated into improved public spending capacity, as a substantial portion is automatically retained by certain agencies before allocation.

It explained that reforms such as the removal of petrol subsidy and foreign exchange adjustments boosted nominal revenues, but much of the gains were offset by the structure of deductions tied to cost of collection and statutory transfers.

Agencies such as the Nigeria Customs Service, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, and the Federal Inland Revenue Service account for a significant portion of these deductions. The report stated that their funding is based on fixed percentages of gross revenue, leading to higher allocations as revenues increase.

Describing the model as “pro-cyclical”, the Bretton Woods institution said it operates outside the conventional budgetary framework and weakens legislative oversight. In some cases, allocations to individual agencies exceed the revenues of several states and even the budgets of key federal ministries.

The report also highlighted the impact on public finances, noting a decline in capital expenditure from N5.5 trillion in 2024 to N4.5 trillion in 2025, with only about 25 per cent of the approved capital budget implemented. Meanwhile, the federal fiscal deficit remained elevated at N16.9 trillion, driven by debt servicing and recurrent expenditure.

The World Bank warned that the current arrangement undermines fiscal transparency and accountability, as significant portions of public revenue are spent outside the standard appropriation process.

Source: tribuneonline

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Dangote Refinery Raises Petrol Price to N1,275, Diesel Now N1,950

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The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has increased the gantry price of petrol and diesel, further tightening pressure on consumers and businesses across Nigeria. This is however, in response to the rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their ripple effects on global energy markets.

A top official at the refinery, who confirmed the development to our correspondent on Tuesday night, said the facility adjusted its pricing in response to prevailing international crude oil benchmarks and market realities.

The new pricing template shows that petrol rose by N75 per litre to N1,275, representing an increase of about 5.02 per cent, while diesel jumped by N200 per litre to N1,950.

This marks a sharp increase from last month’s prices of N1,200 per litre for petrol and N1,750 for diesel, signalling that diesel is now on track to breach the N2,000 per litre mark at the pump, further intensifying cost pressures across the economy.

“The adjustment is in line with global market trends. You are aware of the ongoing tensions in the Middle East and how they have impacted crude oil prices. These are external factors that directly influence refined product pricing,” the official, who spoke in confidence due to the lack of authorisation to speak on the matter, stated.

He added, “Petrol has been reviewed upward by N75 to N1,275 per litre, which is about a five per cent increase, while diesel has increased more significantly by N200 to N1,950 per litre. These changes reflect the realities of the international market.”

Market data from Petroleumprice.ng corroborated the development, indicating that the latest petrol price reflects a 5.02 per cent increase at the gantry level.

The development comes at a time when stakeholders had hoped that increased local refining capacity would help stabilise domestic fuel prices. However, analysts say Nigeria remains exposed to global oil price volatility due to its reliance on international crude benchmarks for pricing.

The latest hike could trigger a fresh wave of increases in pump prices nationwide, with marketers expected to pass on the additional cost to consumers in the coming days.

Global oil markets have remained volatile in recent weeks due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, a region that accounts for a significant share of the world’s crude oil supply. Any disruption or perceived risk to supply routes often leads to price spikes, which in turn affect refined petroleum products globally.

Nigeria, despite being an oil-producing country, operates a deregulated downstream sector where fuel prices are largely determined by market forces. This means that local prices are influenced by international crude prices, exchange rates, logistics costs, and refinery operations.

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Africa’s largest, was expected to reduce Nigeria’s dependence on imported fuel and help stabilise prices. However, experts note that as long as crude oil pricing remains tied to global benchmarks, domestic fuel prices will continue to fluctuate in response to international developments.

The latest increase also comes amid concerns over affordability, with consumers already grappling with high energy and transportation costs. A sustained price increase could worsen inflationary pressures and slow economic recovery.

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