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The Oracle: Nigeria and the Nigerien Coup: The Allegory of the Hunch-Backed Cripple (Pt. 2)

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By Mike Ozekhome

INTRODUCTION

We have in part 1 of this thesis, used the allegory of a man with a hunch to liken Nigeria’s needless push for ECOWAS intervention in the Nigerien coup militarily. We brought out historical perspectives to show why Nigeria is not a high moral ground to do so. The questions of self-determination and powers of the ECOWAS to militarily intervene in the internal affairs of member states were discussed. Let us now take our inquiry further.

MEANING OF INTERVENTION

In international law, the concept of “intervention” is tied to the notion of “interference”. It refers to when a State intervenes in the internal affairs of another State in violation of the latter’s sovereignty.

Such intervention is prohibited by the UN Charter under the principle of non-intervention, or non-interference, which posits that States should not “intervene in matters to preserve the independence of weaker states against the interventions and pressures of more powerful ones.” This concept is presented as the basis for international relations and therefore applies to interstate relations; but not to relief activities carried out by impartial humanitarian organizations.

A military intervention can open up new vistas for the reorganization of a political system. Military intervention by outside forces into the affairs of sovereign states is strictly limited in international law and diplomacy. The UN through its Security Council, has since the end of the Cold War begun to increasingly classify gross human rights violations in intrastate and sub-state armed conflicts as a threat to world peace and international security. It has thus mandated humanitarian interventions on the basis of a so-called responsibility to protect (R2P). Such peace-enforcement missions can easily trigger a regime change. Nowadays, these include substantial state-building efforts under external oversight; but rarely if ever, lead to successful democratization of a country.

FORMS OF INTERVENTION

In international relations, intervention is defined as using force to interfere in another Nation’s affairs in a way that affects that Nation’s control over its territory or population. Intervention can take on many forms, depending on the conflict or issue that occurs.

While military force is the most well-known and historically used form of intervention, there are several different ways that forcible intervention may be used. In fact, one of the most compelling is Economic intervention – which delays mostly with sanctions. There is also political interference.

TREATY-BASED CONSENT TO INTERVENTION

Russel Buchan and Nicholas Tsagourias (both Senior Lecturer and Professor respectively, of the University of Sheffield, wrote extensively on the issue of “Treaty-based consent”, regarding the powers of the AU and the ECOWAS to intervene militarily in the affairs of member states. In an article titled, “The Niger Coup and the Prospects of ECOWAS Military Intervention: An International Law Appraisal”, they wrote (and permit me to copiously quote) as follows:

“Since Niger is a member of ECOWAS and the African Union (AU), we first consider whether their constitutive treaties and related legal instruments empower them to intervene militarily within their member States. If this is the case, Niger would be deemed to have granted its consent to intervention by signing and ratifying the respective treaties or instruments.

“With regard to ECOWAS, the constitutive treaty signed in 1975 and revised in 1991 does not provide for such a right. In 1978, a Protocol on Non-Aggression was signed according to which ECOWAS member States vow not to use force or aggression against other member States. The 1981 Protocol Relating to the Mutual Assistance on Defence provides for collective self-defence in cases of armed threat or aggression directed against any ECOWAS member State (arts. 2 and 3). The 1999 Protocol Relating to the Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management, Resolution, Peacekeeping and Security establishes a collective security system. It lays down the guiding principles of the mechanism (arts. 2 and 3) and lists the circumstances which set it in motion among which is the overthrow or attempted overthrow of a democratically elected government (art. 25).

“Among the organs established to implement ECOWAS’s peace and security mandate are the nine-member Mediation and Security Council and ECOMOG (ECOWAS’s Cease-Fire Monitoring Group). The Mediation and Security Council can make decisions by a two-thirds majority on all matters relating to peace and security including the authorization of all forms of intervention and the deployment of political and military missions (art. 10). ECOMOG consists of civilian and military standby forces charged, among others, with the following missions: peacekeeping and restoration of peace; humanitarian intervention in support of humanitarian disaster; enforcement of sanctions; peacebuilding, disarmament, and demobilization; policing activities; and any other operations as may be mandated by the Mediation and Security Council (art. 22).

“It follows that ECOWAS has the power to intervene militarily in a member State where a democratically elected government is overthrown. Niger has signed and ratified the above instruments and therefore has consented to such intervention. Consequently, ECOWAS’s threat to use force is lawful because it is based on a treaty right.
“Any decision to actually use force should be taken by the Mediation and Security Council with the requisite majority. However, as noted earlier, there is opposition to such a course of action. If ECOWAS or certain member States acting on its behalf were to use force to restore the previous government in contravention of the voting requirements, the action would be unlawful. The stalemate could be overcome by seeking SC authorization under Article 53(1) of the UN Charter. If the SC authorized ECOWAS or any of its member States to use force to restore the deposed government, the action would be lawful.

“This raises the question of the relationship between ECOWAS and the SC. Article 52 of the 1999 Protocol Relating to the Mechanism for Conflict Prevention, Management, Resolution, Peacekeeping and Security does not impose an obligation on ECOWAS to obtain SC authorization but only to inform the UN of any military intervention undertaken in accordance with the Protocol. The reason that such interventions are lawful is because member States have given their prior consent. However, if ECOWAS is unable to make such a decision due to disagreement among its member States, it can appeal to the SC. Moreover, SC authorization will bring into play Article 103 of the UN Charter according to which UN obligations prevail over all others.

“Regarding the AU, revised Article 4(h) of the AU’s Constitutive Act provides for the right of the Union to intervene in a Member State pursuant to a decision of the Assembly in respect of grave circumstances, namely: war crimes, genocide and crimes against humanity as well as a serious threat to legitimate order to restore peace and stability to the Member State of the Union upon the recommendation of the Peace and Security Council.
“Article 4(h) plays a dual role: it empowers the AU to intervene militarily within member States in cases where the internal legitimate order is threatened; and is also an expression of the consent of AU member States to intervention by the AU. Consequently, AU interventions do not require prior SC authorization but are lawful on the basis of treaty-based consent.

“There are however a number of issues that require further explanation. First, Article 4(h) justifies military intervention to protect the legitimate order against threats. The legitimate order may refer to the constitutional government regardless of whether it is democratic according to western liberal notions of democracy or the government that is in power, as the AU’s reluctance to act against the Gaddafi regime demonstrates. However, it is interpreted, it covers the case of Niger. Second, there is the question of whether Niger’s consent to intervention by becoming a member of the AU is perpetual or should be granted de novo. In our opinion, such consent granted in a constitutional treaty is perpetual until Niger withdraws from the AU. Third, there is the question of the relationship between ECOWAS and the AU regarding military intervention.

“ECOWAS, other African sub-regional organizations, and the AU form the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA). The relations between sub-regional organizations and the AU are characterized by the principle of subsidiarity and the principle of primacy of the AU and its institutions. The AU’s primacy is recognized in Article 16 of the Protocol Establishing the Peace and Security Council and the Memorandum of Understanding with regional communities. With regard to the AU, decisions to intervene are taken by the AU’s Peace and Security Council (PSC) on the basis of consensus or in the absence of consensus by a two-thirds majority (art. 8(13)). Under the Protocol Establishing the Peace and Security Council of the AU, the intervention is performed by the African Standby Force (ASF), which consists of contingents from AU regional economic communities including ECOWAS (arts. 4, 6, 7, and 13).

“This means that ECOWAS can appeal to the AU but the AU can also be seized of the matter of its own accord. The AU can authorize any member State or coalitions of States to use force to restore democracy. It can also authorize ECOWAS or ECOWAS member States to do so. These options are quite remote due to a reported lack of consensus within the AU on military action. If consensus is somehow achieved and the AU decides to intervene militarily by deploying the ASF, one issue that may arise is whether States opposed to the use of force should consent to their troops participating in the operation”.

What is clear from this seminar dissertation by the learned scholars is that both the ECOWAS and AU Member States must be consensually ad idem for such military deployment to take place. In the case of AU’s PSC, where there is failure to obtain a consensus (Art 16), at least two-third majority of members states must agree to such intervention (Art 8.13). For ECOWAS, under Art 10 of the 1981 Protocol, two-third majority must agree. This scenario is all lacking in the Nigerien power play. Many ECOWAS and AU member states are stringently against such military action. So, such a plan has collapsed like a pack of cards.

MANY REASONS NIGERIA, A HUNCHED BACK CRIPPLE SHOULD NEVER TRY TO LEAD A WAR OF ATTRITION

Nigeria is one of the most porous and territorially vulnerable countries in the world. With Niger Republic alone, seven of Nigeria’s states share common boundaries, to wit, Sokoto, Kebbi, Katsina, Zamfara, Jigawa, Yobe and Borno. The saying is apt that he who brings an ant-infested piece of firewood into his house should not complain when he is obliged a visitation by a colony of feasting lizards. A war in Niger would simply open up our already gaping borders and lead to an ungovernable influx of refugees. Nigeria, a country already bloated and asphyxiating by an uncontrollable population of 224.4 million people as at 1st July, 2023 (by UN data projection), should not try out such a toxic experiment.

To invade Niger using ECOWAS as a façade and veneer will simply approximate to a declaration of war between Nigeria and Niger, a country whose proximity to Nigeria through seven states will surely be on the precipice.

To be continued…

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Opinion

The State of Leadership Today: A Look at Global, African and Nigerian Realities

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By Tolulope A. Adegoke PhD

“Leadership for our age is measured not by the height of the throne, but by the depth of its roots in integrity, the breadth of its embrace of collective talent, and the courage to cultivate systems that bear fruit for generations yet unseen” – Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD.

Leadership today is at a crossroad. Around the world, in our communities, and within our organizations, old ways of leading are straining under new pressures. This isn’t just a theoretical discussion; it’s about the quality of our daily lives, the success of our businesses, and the future of our nations. Let’s walk through the current trends, understand their very real impacts, and then explore practical, hands-on solutions that can unlock a better future for everyone.

Part 1: The Leadership Landscape – Where We Stand

The Global Picture: Beyond the Solo Leader

The image of the all-powerful, decisive leader at the top of a pyramid is fading. Today, effective leadership looks different. It’s more about empathy and service than authority. People expect their leaders—in companies and governments—to be authentic, to listen, and to foster teams where everyone feels safe to contribute. Furthermore, leadership is now tightly linked to purpose and responsibility. It’s no longer just about profits or power; stakeholders demand action on climate, fair treatment of workers, and ethical governance. Leaders must also be tech-savvy guides, helping their people navigate constant digital change while dealing with unpredictable global events that disrupt even the best-laid plans.

Africa’s Dynamic Challenge: Youth and Promise

Africa’s story is one of incredible potential meeting stubborn challenges. The continent is young, energetic, and full of innovative spirit. Yet, this tremendous asset often feels untapped. Too frequently, a gap exists between this rising generation and established leadership structures, leading to frustration. While the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents a historic chance for economic unity, it requires leaders who think beyond their own borders. At the same time, democratic progress sometimes stalls, with leaders clinging to power. The most pragmatic leaders are those who engage with the vibrant informal economy—the hustlers, market traders, and artisans—who form the backbone of daily life and hold the key to inclusive growth.

Nigeria’s Pressing Reality: Crisis and Resilience

In Nigeria, the leadership experience often feels like moving from one emergency to the next. Attention is consumed by immediate crises—security threats, economic swings, infrastructure breakdowns—making long-term planning difficult. This has triggered a profound loss of confidence, visibly seen in the “Japa” phenomenon, where skilled professionals leave seeking stability and opportunity abroad. This brain drain is a direct critique of the system. Politics remains deeply influenced by ethnic and regional loyalties, which can overshadow competence and national vision. Yet, in the face of these trials, a remarkable spirit of entrepreneurial resilience shines through. Nigeria’s business people and tech innovators are daily solving problems and creating value, often compensating for wider systemic failures.

Part 2: The Real-World Impact – How This Affects Us All

These trends are not abstract; they touch lives, businesses, and countries in tangible ways.

·         On Everyday People: When leadership is perceived as self-serving or ineffective, trust evaporates. People feel anxious about the future and disconnected from their leaders. This can manifest as cynicism, social unrest, or the difficult decision to emigrate. The struggle to find good jobs, feel secure, and build a future becomes harder, deepening inequalities.

·         On Companies and Organizations: Businesses operate in a tough space. They face a war for talent, competing to retain skilled employees who have global options. They must also navigate unpredictable policies, provide their own power and security, and balance profitability with rising demands for social responsibility. The burden of operating in a challenging environment increases costs and risk.

·         On Nations: Countries plagued by poor governance face a competitiveness crisis. They struggle to attract the kind of long-term investment that builds economies. Policy becomes unstable, changing with political winds, which scares off investors and stalls development. Ultimately, this can destabilize not just one nation but entire regions, as problems like insecurity and migration spill across borders.

Part 3: A Practical Pathway Forward – Building Leadership That Delivers

The situation is complex, but it is not hopeless. Turning things around requires deliberate, concrete actions focused on systems, not just individuals.

1. Fortify Institutions with Transparency and Merit.

We must build systems so strong that they work regardless of who is in charge.

·         Action: Legally protect key institutions—the electoral body, the civil service, the courts—from political interference. Appointments must be based on proven competence and integrity, not connections.

·         Action: Implement technology-driven transparency. Let citizens track government budgets and projects in real time through public online portals. Sunshine is the best disinfectant.

2. Bridge the Gap Between Leaders and the Led.

Leadership must become a conversation, not a monologue.

·         Action: Create mandatory Youth Advisory Councils at all levels of government and in large corporations. Give young people a formal platform to contribute ideas and hold leaders accountable on issues like education, digital innovation, and job creation.

·         Action: Leaders must adopt regular, unscripted “town hall” meetings and use simple digital platforms to explain decisions and gather feedback directly from citizens and employees.

3. Channel Entrepreneurship into National Solutions.

Harness the proven problem-solving power of the private sector.

·         Action: Establish Public-Private Impact Partnerships. For example, the government can partner with tech companies to roll out digital identity systems or with agribusinesses to build modern farm-to-market logistics. Clear rules and shared goals are key.

·         Action: Launch National Challenge Funds that invite entrepreneurs and researchers to compete to solve specific national problems, like local clean energy solutions or affordable healthcare diagnostics, with funding and market access as the prize.

4. Redeploy Nigeria’s Greatest Export: Its Diaspora.

Turn the brain drain into a brain gain.

·         Action: Create a Diaspora Knowledge & Investment Bureau. This agency would actively connect Nigerians abroad with opportunities to mentor, invest in startups, or take up short-term expert roles in Nigerian institutions, transferring vital skills and capital.

·         Action: Offer tangible incentives, like tax breaks or matching funds, for diaspora-led investments in critical sectors like healthcare, renewable energy, and vocational training.

5. Cultivate a New Mindset in Every Citizen.

Ultimately, the culture of leadership starts with us.

·         Action: Integrate ethics, civic responsibility, and critical thinking into the core curriculum of every school. Leadership development begins in the classroom.

·         Action: Celebrate and reward “Local Champions”—the honest councilor, the community organizer, the business owner who trains apprentices. We must honor integrity and service in our everyday circles to reshape our collective expectations.

Conclusion: The Work of Building Together

The challenge before us is not to find a single heroic leader. It is to participate in building a better system of leadership. This means championing institutions that work, demanding transparency in our spaces, mentoring someone younger, and holding ourselves to high ethical standards in our own roles.

For Nigeria and Africa, the possibility of a brighter future is not a dream; it is a choice. It is the choice to move from complaining about leaders to building leadership. It is the choice to value competence over connection, to seek common ground over division, and to invest in the long-term health of our community. This work is hard and requires patience, but by taking these practical steps—starting today and in our own spheres—we lay the foundation for a tomorrow defined by promise, stability, and shared success. The power to deliver that possibility lies not in one person’s hands, but in our collective will to act.

Dr. Tolulope A. Adegoke, AMBP-UN is a globally recognized scholar-practitioner and thought leader at the nexus of security, governance, and strategic leadership. His mission is dedicated to advancing ethical governance, strategic human capital development, and resilient nation-building, and global peace. He can be reached via: tolulopeadegoke01@gmail.comglobalstageimpacts@gmail.com

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Opinion

Globacom Redefines Standard for Telecoms in 2026

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By Michael Abimboye

As always, Globacom is at the heart of telecoms transformation in Nigeria. The acquisition of additional spectrum, is a decisive move that has expanded network capacity and fundamentally improved customer experience.

With the ability to carry significantly higher data volumes at greater speeds, users are seeing faster downloads, stronger uploads, seamless video streaming, and clearer voice calls even at peak periods. Crucially, this expansion has driven down latency. Independent performance testing has ranked Glo as the network with the lowest latency in Nigeria, meaning faster response times whenever data commands are initiated.

This spectrum advantage is being matched on the ground by the rollout of thousands of new LTE sites nationwide. Network capacity has increased pan-Nigeria, with noticeably higher download speeds across regions. At the same time, the installation of thousands of additional towers is easing congestion and closing coverage gaps, particularly in high-density locations such as markets and tertiary institutions, where demand for fast, reliable internet is highest.

Power reliability, often the silent determinant of network quality, is also being reengineered. Globacom has deployed hybrid battery power systems across numerous sites, reducing dependence on diesel while improving sustainability. Beyond cost efficiency, this greener model delivers stronger uptime ensuring uninterrupted power supply and optimal performance for base stations and switching centres.

Behind the scenes, Glo has upgraded its switching systems and data centres to accommodate rising traffic volumes nationwide. These upgrades are designed not only for today’s demand but to ensure the network consistently meets performance KPIs well into the future, even as data consumption continues to grow.

Equally significant is the massive reconstruction and expansion of Globacom’s optic fibre cable (OFC) network. Along highways and metro routes affected by road construction, fibre routes are being reconstructed and relocated to safeguard service continuity. Thousands of kilometres of new fibre have also been rolled out nationwide, fortifying the OFC backbone, improving redundancy, reducing network glitches, and enabling the network to handle increasingly heavy data loads with resilience.

These investments collectively address long-standing coverage gaps while driving densification and capacity enhancement in already active areas, ensuring a more balanced and reliable national footprint.

At the core layer, Globacom is modernising its network elements through new platforms and applications, upgraded enterprise and interconnect billing systems, and an expanding roster of roaming partners for both in-roaming and out-roaming services strengthening its integration into the global telecoms ecosystem.

Taken together, these are not incremental upgrades. They represent a deliberate, system-wide repositioning.

In 2026, Globacom is not just improving its network; it is asserting itself as the technical leader in Nigeria’s telecommunications industry and has gone on a spending spree to satisfy the millions of subscribers enjoying seamless connectivity across Nigeria.

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Opinion

How GLO Sustains Everyday Businesses in Kano, Nigeria’s Centre of Commerce

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By Dr Sani Sa’idu Baba

For more than two weeks, Kano woke up under a veil of fog. Not the poetic kind, but the stubborn Harmattan fog that dulls vision, slows movement, and disrupts daily rhythm. Dawn arrived quietly. Shops opened late. Calls failed repeatedly. Internet bars blinked on and off like uncertain promises. Across the state, one reality became impossible to ignore: communication had become a struggle. This reality carried even greater weight in the capital of Kano, the centre of commerce in Nigeria.

As Ramadan approaches and gradually leads to the celebration of Eid-el-Fitr, everyone understands what this season represents. It is a period when online businesses, both big and small, become a major source of livelihood for millions. Traders prepare for peak demand, online vendors scale up advertising, and buyers from across the country look to Kano for goods. Visitors stream in from other states, transactions multiply, and the success of this entire commercial ecosystem depends heavily on one thing: seamless network connectivity between buyers and sellers.
In Kano, where business breathes through phone calls, alerts, and instant messages, poor network is not just inconvenient, it is costly. Calling became difficult. Browsing the internet felt like a battle. For many, it meant frustration. For others, it meant loss.

As these challenges persisted day after day, conversations across the city began to take a clear and consistent direction. In homes, offices, and markets, a new conversation began to dominate discussions. A brother of mine, deeply involved in the communication business at Farm Center Market, the largest hub for telecom activity in Kano shared his amazement. Day after day, customers walked up to data vendors with one clear, confident request: “Glo data.” Not alternatives. Not experiments. Just Glo, he said. At first, it seemed puzzling. If you were already on Glo, you might not even notice the difference. But for those struggling on other networks, the contrast was undeniable. In the middle of foggy mornings and unstable signals, Glo stood firm.

And soon, the conversation spread everywhere. At tea junctions in the early hours, as people warmed their hands around cups of shayi, discussions circled around how Glo “held up” when others disappeared. In university classrooms, students whispered comparisons before lectures began, who could download materials, who could submit assignments, and which network actually worked. More strikingly, Glo users quietly turned their phones into lifelines, sharing hotspots with classmates so others could access lecture notes, submit assignments, and stay connected. At sports viewing centres, between goals and missed chances, fans debated networks with the same passion as football rivalries. In markets, traders told customers how Glo saved their day. In every gathering of people across Kano, Glo became the reference point. The reason was simple: Glo had saved businesses.

Consider the POS operator by the roadside. Every successful transaction that attracts him/her ₦100 here, ₦200 there is survival. Failed transfers mean angry customers and lost income. During these fog-heavy days, many operators would have been stranded. But where Glo bars stayed strong, withdrawals went through, alerts dropped, and trust preserved.

Picture a roadside trader making her first sale of the day through a simple WhatsApp call, her voice steady as she confirms an order that will set the tone for her business. Nearby, an online vendor advertises products in WhatsApp groups, responds to messages, takes calls from interested buyers, and confirms deliveries, all in real time. Behind every one of these small but significant transactions is reliable connectivity. Delivery riders weaving through traffic and racing against time also depend on uninterrupted network access to reach customers, confirm payments, and complete orders. In moments when other networks struggled, Glo quietly kept these wheels of commerce turning, ensuring that daily hustle did not grind to a halt. Beyond the busy streets of the city, the impact of this reliability becomes even more profound in remote villages in Kano.

Back in Kano city, rising transportation costs have reshaped the way people work. Many professionals have had no choice but to adapt, turning their homes into offices and relying heavily on the internet to stay productive. Many now attend virtual meetings, send large files, collaborate remotely, and meet deadlines without leaving their homes. In a period marked by economic pressure and uncertainty, dependable internet is no longer a convenience, it is a necessity. In these conditions, Glo continues to provide the stability that keeps work moving forward.

At this point, Glo stops being seen merely as a telecommunications company. It emerges as the invisible backbone of the Nigerian hustle, supporting the determination and resilience of everyday people. From POS operators and online merchants to students, delivery services, market traders, and remote workers who refuse to give up, Glo remains present in the background, quietly powering their efforts. In tough terrains, harsh weather, and challenging times, when other networks fluctuate or fade, Glo stays connected.

You may not always hear it announce itself loudly, and you may not notice it when everything is working smoothly. But when a single call saves a business, when one alert prevents a financial loss, and when one stable connection keeps a dream alive, Glo proves its value, not as noise or empty promises, but as consistent reliability and lived experience. And that is how quietly, consistently, and powerfully Glo continues to power Nigeria’s everyday businesses, sustaining dreams and survival UNLIMITEDLY…

Dr. Baba writes from Kano, and can reached via drssbaba@yahoo.com

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