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Opinion: How Nigerians May Vote, State by State: Buhari, Atiku in Tight, Tough Race as Feb 16 Closes in

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7 years ago

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With just 13 days to the February 16 presidential election, the dynamics of the race for the nation’s top job indicate an interestingly tight and tough contest between the two leading candidates of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Muhammadu Buhari.

This latest development is not only evidenced by the frenzy of their campaigns, which has seen both candidates traverse many states and across the geo-political zones, but more strongly connected to the degree of acceptability that the two candidates enjoy, in what is fast becoming a popularity contest.

THISDAY’s recent field intelligence gathering, which reports a tight and tough contest, however, presents both state-by-state and geo-political zone analyses of what is obtainable by each of the two front-runners in the states, thus giving an evolving picture of what might ultimately be the regional standing of the candidates and their parties.

North-west
In the Kano, for instance, the race pictures a 65 per cent victory for Buhari and 35 per cent for Atiku, In Kaduna, while Buhari is likely to get 55 per cent of the votes cast, Atiku may post just 45 per cent. The race in Katsina is a no-contest as Buhari is sure to secure 70 per cent to Atiku’s 30 per cent.
In Sokoto, Buhari manages an edge over Atiku with 55 to 45 per cent sharing, but in Zamfara, the contest promises a 50-50 contest. Kebbi looks comfortable for Buhari with a 60 per cent advantage over Atiku’s 40 per cent.

Thus, in the North-west, Buhari is sure of victory in at least five states, albeit with varying winning percentages, with a draw in one with Atiku.
Buhari is certain to prevail in Jigawa with a 60/40 mergin over Atiku.

North-east
The dynamics in North East varies differently from the North West, because here, in Bauchi for example, Buhari is sure of some 60 per cent to Atiku’s 40, while in Borno and in spite of the growing insurgency, the votes will still go the way of Buhari, also with 60 to 40 per cent voting.

Atiku will put up a good showing in Adamawa with a 65 per cent advantage, leaving Buhari with 35 per cent. Moving on to Yobe, Buhari is positioned to score 60 per cent, leaving 40 for Atiku and the same equation is shared in Gombe – 60/40 – also in favour of Atiku. But the Taraba contest is a different one as it sees Atiku coasting home with 70 per cent and 30 for Buhari.

Here in the North East, both candidates would have a very tight race with the states shared three each.

North -central
The battle for North Central appears an all-Atiku affair, because Benue is determined to deliver Atiku with 70 per cent, while leaving 30 per cent for Buhari. Plateau, although slightly tough, would also deliver Atiku with 55 per cent, while conceding 45 per cent to Buhari. A repeat of this is likely in Nasarawa, where Atiku might go home with 55 per cent and Buhari, 45 per cent.
Kogi State’s battle also looks good for Atiku even though with the same 55/45 sharing formula. But Niger might go the way of Buhari with 55 per cent to Atiku’s 45 per cent. However, Kwara is solidly PDP and would deliver Atiku but with 55 per cent to Buhari’s 45 per cent.
The summary here is five states for Atiku and one for Buhari.

South-west
Considered the real battleground because of the number of votes that is up for grab, the race in South-west is unavoidably tight. In Oyo, for example, Buhari will certainly top with 55 per cent, while Atiku gets the remaining 45 per cent of the vote count. But in Osun, the situation is too close to call and might flip either way. Is a 50/50 chance. The Osun equation is unlikely to be repeated in Ondo, which may give Buhari 55 per cent and Atiku 45 per cent.

Buhari appears comfortable in Ekiti, where he may likely get his highest votes in the zone with 60 per cent to Atiku’s 40 per cent. Interestingly, however, Ogun too may go the way of Atiku with 55 per cent to Buhari’s 45 per cent, because of the many factors that are currently playing out in the state. But the Lagos battle is a 50-50 ratio. The dynamics are quite intricate.

Curiously, the South-west goes the way of Atiku with three states to Buhari’s two, while drawing in one, Lagos.

South-east
Further South, the battle for the soul of South-east is almost predictable even without the enabling field work. This is because the entire zone would go the way of PDP, although with different percentages accruable to each state.

Starting with Imo, the heartland of the South-east, Atiku is sure of at least 60 per cent of the votes with 40 per cent concession to Buhari. The same ratio is obtainable in Abia, God’s own state: 60-40 in favour of Atiku. Ebonyi too is sharing her votes in the same 60-40 pattern, also in favour of Atiku, while Enugu, which is South-east safest state for the PDP, boasts 70 per cent for Atiku and 30 per cent for Buhari. In Anambra, where Peter Obi’s home-zone advantage is certain to work for Atiku, the PDP candidate stands to get 60 per cent votes to Buhari’s 40 per cent. The final analysis in this zone sees Atiku clearing all the five states.

South-south
Similar to what obtains in South-east, the entire South-south too might go the way of PDP, with votes contingent on their voting strengths.

Rivers promises to deliver the PDP with a percentage of 80 to 20 in favour of Atiku, while Cross River will post 70 per cent for Atiku and 30 per cent for Buhari. Akwa Ibom, despite the current state of play, will still deliver PDP with 60 per cent and concede 40 to Buhari.

Edo will deliver the PDP with 55 per cent, leaving Buhari with the remaining 45 per cent. In Delta too, the PDP will post some 75 per cent for Atiku and 25 per cent for Buhari, while Bayelsa, though with a relatively small voting strength, will hugely deliver Atiku’s PDP with 80 per cent, leaving the remaining 20 per cent for Buhari.

The South-south analysis also sees Atiku clearing the entire six states. As for the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, it looks like a 50/50 chance for the two candidates. And may go either way.

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I Won’t Be Intimidated, Seun Okinbaloye Replies Wike

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14 minutes ago

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April 6, 2026

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Channels Television anchor, Seun Okinbaloye, has said he is not afraid and will not be intimidated following controversy surrounding remarks by the Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, while also thanking Nigerians and organisations for their support.

Okinbaloye made this known during a broadcast on Sunday, where he acknowledged the outpouring of solidarity from civil society groups, viewers, and both local and international organisations.

“I sincerely want to thank civil society organisations, our viewers, for your love and your comments and your solidarity… Your support is deeply appreciated and reinforces our collective commitment to truth and accountability,” he said.

The anchor warned that democracy could be undermined if dissenting voices are silenced, stating that “our democracy is in danger if we allow one way traffic in balloting.”

He stressed that his comments were not directed at any political group but at all Nigerians, adding that “this is not a warning to the opposition or the ruling party, but to all Nigerians who believe in the development of our nation.”

Okinbaloye disclosed that he received reassurances regarding his safety, noting “the ongoing reassurance from the Department of State Services,” and also revealed that “I also received a call from the Honourable Minister who clarified that the intention was not as conveyed.”

Despite the clarification, he cautioned against the use of inflammatory language, saying “violent rhetoric or suggestive threats are never appropriate responses to dissent in a democratic society,” especially during an election period when “clear and consistent assurances of safety are critical.”

He added that such statements could create risks if misinterpreted, warning that “we must not create an environment where such statements can be exploited by those with harmful intentions.”

Reaffirming his position, Okinbaloye said, “Let me be clear, I’m not afraid, and I will never be intimidated,” adding that journalism “grounded in ethics and global best practices remains a duty to the public, not a concession to power.”
The anchor maintained that he would continue to hold public officials accountable, stating, “I will continue to do what I love, asking the necessary questions, holding power to account… If that commitment comes at a cost, so be it.”

The controversy followed remarks by Wike during a media parley in Abuja, where he reacted to Okinbaloye’s comments on a Channels Television programme discussing the leadership crisis in the African Democratic Congress and its implications for opposition politics ahead of the 2027 elections.

Okinbaloye had raised concerns about the possibility of a one-party state, a position the minister criticised as inappropriate for a journalist.

Although Wike later clarified that he did not intend physical harm, his aide, Lere Olayinka, said the remark was made “in a hyperbolic context… without intent,” explaining that the minister was responding to what he perceived as the anchor’s involvement in political commentary rather than neutral moderation.

Olayinka added, “The Minister never meant that he would shoot Seun Okinbaloye. What he meant was that he was angry seeing Okinbaloye descending into the political arena by speaking as an interested party, instead of an interviewer.”

However, Amnesty International Nigeria condemned the minister’s statement, describing it as “reckless and violent,” and warning that such language could incite attacks on journalists and undermine press freedom.

The organisation said the remark “carries the danger of normalising violence and encouraging the targeting of journalists for just doing their job,” stressing that such comments from public officials are unacceptable.

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Gov Adeleke Commends MicCom Legacy As Family Launches N150m Engineering Endowment at OAU

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3 days ago

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April 3, 2026

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The Governor of Osun State, Ademola Adeleke, has commended the legacy of indigenous manufacturing firm MicCom Cables and Wires, describing it as a symbol of Nigerian innovation and industrial resilience.

Speaking at the inauguration of a ₦150 million MicCom Memorial Endowment for Engineering Development at Obafemi Awolowo University, Adeleke said the company’s founders, the late Engr. Michael Ayantunde Ponnle and Engr. (Mrs.) Comfort Olufunke Ponnle, demonstrated that Nigerian engineers can compete globally.

Delivering his address, Governor Adeleke described the occasion as both a moment of remembrance and a celebration of a legacy that continues to shape the future of engineering in Nigeria.

“We are remembering two exceptional lives, while celebrating a legacy that continues to build, teach, and inspire even beyond their passing,” the governor said.

He highlighted the pioneering roles of the late couple in advancing indigenous manufacturing through MicCom Cables and Wires, at a time when Nigeria heavily relied on imported engineering technologies. Their bold commitment to local innovation, Adeleke noted, demonstrated the capacity of Nigerian engineers to compete on the global stage.

The governor emphasized that the Ponnles exemplified a rare partnership built on shared vision and complementary strengths, with Engr. Michael Ponnle providing leadership in enterprise development, while Engr. (Mrs.) Comfort Ponnle was known for her technical discipline and operational excellence.

Earlier, the Chief Executive Officer of MicCom Cables & Wires Ltd, Bukola Adubi, stated that the endowment is designed to sustain their parents’ legacy while supporting the development of future generations of engineers.

“The endowment being inaugurated today is more than a ceremonial gesture; it is a purposeful commitment to the future of engineering, innovation, and technological advancement in Nigeria. Established in honour of Late Engr. Michael Ayantunde Ponnle, FNSE, OON, OFR, and Late Engr. (Mrs.) Comfort Olufunke Ponnle, FNSE, the fund seeks to immortalize their remarkable legacy while creating a lasting platform for the development of future engineers,” she said.

Adubi added that the Ponnles were pioneers in Nigeria’s industrial sector, having founded one of the country’s first indigenous cable manufacturing companies at a time when local production capacity was still evolving.

Also speaking, the Vice-Chancellor of Obafemi Awolowo University, Simeon Bamire, described the MicCom Memorial Endowment Fund as a visionary initiative that will create opportunities for future engineers through scholarships, research support, and upgraded facilities.

“The ₦150 Million MicCom Memorial Endowment Fund represents a strategic investment in engineering education and innovation. This fund will foster academic excellence through cutting-edge research, provide scholarships to deserving students, upgrade facilities, and nurture the next generation of engineers equipped to tackle Nigeria and Africa’s most pressing technological and infrastructural challenges,” he said.

The inauguration ceremony brought together dignitaries from academia, government, industry, and traditional institutions, including Chairman, Ovation Media Group, Chief Dele Momodu, celebrating the enduring legacy of the Ponnles and their contribution to Nigeria’s engineering and manufacturing sectors.

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ADC: Timi Frank Warns INEC, APC Against Setting Nigeria on Fire, Seeks America’s Intervention

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4 days ago

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April 2, 2026

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A former Deputy National Publicity Secretary of the All Progressives Congress (APC), Timi Frank, has warned that recent actions involving the African Democratic Congress (ADC) could destabilise Nigeria’s democratic system if not urgently addressed.

Frank also called on the United States government, including President Donald Trump, to intervene in safeguarding democracy in Nigeria.

In a statement issued in Abuja, Frank reacted to a decision by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to suspend recognition of the leadership of the ADC, including that of David Mark, as well as a rival claim by Nafiu Bala Gombe, pending the determination of a suit before a Federal High Court in Abuja.

He alleged that the development reflects a growing pattern of interference in opposition parties, warning that such actions could “set Nigeria on fire.”

“INEC and the APC-led government appear to be taking steps that threaten the very foundation of our democracy,” Frank said, adding that recent developments suggest a coordinated attempt to weaken opposition parties ahead of the 2027 general elections.

Frank drew parallels with the regime of former Head of State, Sani Abacha, alleging that current trends mirror past efforts to suppress democratic institutions.
He also expressed concern over the actions of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, claiming they signal a drift towards authoritarianism.

“Recent developments raise serious concerns about the future of democratic governance in Nigeria,” he said.
The activist further alleged that internal crises within opposition parties—including the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party, Social Democratic Party (SDP), and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP)—may have been influenced by external forces, warning that the situation is now extending to the ADC.

He also accused the judiciary of being used to frustrate opposition parties through questionable rulings and called on the international community to impose sanctions, including visa restrictions, on electoral and judicial officials found culpable.

“The courts have been used to thwart democratic processes with frivolous decisions,” he alleged.

Frank further claimed that opposition figures were being targeted through arrests and legal actions, warning that the country could face instability if the situation persists.
“Nigeria is heading towards a crisis that may be difficult to contain if urgent steps are not taken,” he said.

He urged Nigerians, civil society organisations, and professional bodies—including the Nigeria Bar Association (NBA), Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC), Trade Union Congress (TUC), Nigeria Medical Association (NMA), and the Inter-Party Advisory Council (IPAC)—to speak out in defence of democracy.

Frank also appealed to the international community, particularly the United States, to remain vigilant in supporting democratic values in Nigeria.

He maintained that Nigerians have historically resisted anti-democratic tendencies and would continue to do so.

“Freedom of association and the right to choose must be protected. Enough is enough,” he said.

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