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Opinion: How Nigerians May Vote, State by State: Buhari, Atiku in Tight, Tough Race as Feb 16 Closes in

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With just 13 days to the February 16 presidential election, the dynamics of the race for the nation’s top job indicate an interestingly tight and tough contest between the two leading candidates of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Alhaji Atiku Abubakar and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Muhammadu Buhari.

This latest development is not only evidenced by the frenzy of their campaigns, which has seen both candidates traverse many states and across the geo-political zones, but more strongly connected to the degree of acceptability that the two candidates enjoy, in what is fast becoming a popularity contest.

THISDAY’s recent field intelligence gathering, which reports a tight and tough contest, however, presents both state-by-state and geo-political zone analyses of what is obtainable by each of the two front-runners in the states, thus giving an evolving picture of what might ultimately be the regional standing of the candidates and their parties.

North-west
In the Kano, for instance, the race pictures a 65 per cent victory for Buhari and 35 per cent for Atiku, In Kaduna, while Buhari is likely to get 55 per cent of the votes cast, Atiku may post just 45 per cent. The race in Katsina is a no-contest as Buhari is sure to secure 70 per cent to Atiku’s 30 per cent.
In Sokoto, Buhari manages an edge over Atiku with 55 to 45 per cent sharing, but in Zamfara, the contest promises a 50-50 contest. Kebbi looks comfortable for Buhari with a 60 per cent advantage over Atiku’s 40 per cent.

Thus, in the North-west, Buhari is sure of victory in at least five states, albeit with varying winning percentages, with a draw in one with Atiku.
Buhari is certain to prevail in Jigawa with a 60/40 mergin over Atiku.

North-east
The dynamics in North East varies differently from the North West, because here, in Bauchi for example, Buhari is sure of some 60 per cent to Atiku’s 40, while in Borno and in spite of the growing insurgency, the votes will still go the way of Buhari, also with 60 to 40 per cent voting.

Atiku will put up a good showing in Adamawa with a 65 per cent advantage, leaving Buhari with 35 per cent. Moving on to Yobe, Buhari is positioned to score 60 per cent, leaving 40 for Atiku and the same equation is shared in Gombe – 60/40 – also in favour of Atiku. But the Taraba contest is a different one as it sees Atiku coasting home with 70 per cent and 30 for Buhari.

Here in the North East, both candidates would have a very tight race with the states shared three each.

North -central
The battle for North Central appears an all-Atiku affair, because Benue is determined to deliver Atiku with 70 per cent, while leaving 30 per cent for Buhari. Plateau, although slightly tough, would also deliver Atiku with 55 per cent, while conceding 45 per cent to Buhari. A repeat of this is likely in Nasarawa, where Atiku might go home with 55 per cent and Buhari, 45 per cent.
Kogi State’s battle also looks good for Atiku even though with the same 55/45 sharing formula. But Niger might go the way of Buhari with 55 per cent to Atiku’s 45 per cent. However, Kwara is solidly PDP and would deliver Atiku but with 55 per cent to Buhari’s 45 per cent.
The summary here is five states for Atiku and one for Buhari.

South-west
Considered the real battleground because of the number of votes that is up for grab, the race in South-west is unavoidably tight. In Oyo, for example, Buhari will certainly top with 55 per cent, while Atiku gets the remaining 45 per cent of the vote count. But in Osun, the situation is too close to call and might flip either way. Is a 50/50 chance. The Osun equation is unlikely to be repeated in Ondo, which may give Buhari 55 per cent and Atiku 45 per cent.

Buhari appears comfortable in Ekiti, where he may likely get his highest votes in the zone with 60 per cent to Atiku’s 40 per cent. Interestingly, however, Ogun too may go the way of Atiku with 55 per cent to Buhari’s 45 per cent, because of the many factors that are currently playing out in the state. But the Lagos battle is a 50-50 ratio. The dynamics are quite intricate.

Curiously, the South-west goes the way of Atiku with three states to Buhari’s two, while drawing in one, Lagos.

South-east
Further South, the battle for the soul of South-east is almost predictable even without the enabling field work. This is because the entire zone would go the way of PDP, although with different percentages accruable to each state.

Starting with Imo, the heartland of the South-east, Atiku is sure of at least 60 per cent of the votes with 40 per cent concession to Buhari. The same ratio is obtainable in Abia, God’s own state: 60-40 in favour of Atiku. Ebonyi too is sharing her votes in the same 60-40 pattern, also in favour of Atiku, while Enugu, which is South-east safest state for the PDP, boasts 70 per cent for Atiku and 30 per cent for Buhari. In Anambra, where Peter Obi’s home-zone advantage is certain to work for Atiku, the PDP candidate stands to get 60 per cent votes to Buhari’s 40 per cent. The final analysis in this zone sees Atiku clearing all the five states.

South-south
Similar to what obtains in South-east, the entire South-south too might go the way of PDP, with votes contingent on their voting strengths.

Rivers promises to deliver the PDP with a percentage of 80 to 20 in favour of Atiku, while Cross River will post 70 per cent for Atiku and 30 per cent for Buhari. Akwa Ibom, despite the current state of play, will still deliver PDP with 60 per cent and concede 40 to Buhari.

Edo will deliver the PDP with 55 per cent, leaving Buhari with the remaining 45 per cent. In Delta too, the PDP will post some 75 per cent for Atiku and 25 per cent for Buhari, while Bayelsa, though with a relatively small voting strength, will hugely deliver Atiku’s PDP with 80 per cent, leaving the remaining 20 per cent for Buhari.

The South-south analysis also sees Atiku clearing the entire six states. As for the Federal Capital Territory, FCT, it looks like a 50/50 chance for the two candidates. And may go either way.

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Tinubu Forced Obi, Kwankwaso to Work Together – Dele Momodu

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A chieftain of the African Democratic Congress, Dele Momodu, has claimed that President Bola Tinubu is the one who forced opposition leaders such as Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso into working together ahead of the 2027 elections.

In an interview on Channels Television on Wednesday, Momodu argued that the current unity among some opposition figures is not born out of genuine long-term commitment but is a reaction to pressure from the ruling government.

“Tinubu forced all of them together. And that is why they all moved in one direction. Which would have been beautiful, because it would have been like a two-party race,” Momodu said.

The publisher of Ovation International made the comment while reacting to the defection of Obi and Kwankwaso to the Nigeria Democratic Congress.

Obi, the 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate, dumped the ADC on Sunday alongside former New Nigeria People’s Party presidential candidate, Kwankwaso, citing legal disputes within the coalition and a toxic political climate.

The move sparked debate about a possible joint presidential ticket between the two opposition figures in the 2027 election.

Momodu, however, warned that the political situation has changed significantly since the 2023 election and cautioned against assumptions of automatic voter retention for major candidates.

“Are you saying that Tinubu will retain all the 8 million plus people that voted for him last time? How are you sure… What is the guarantee that Obi and Kwankwaso are the only people who will retain all those who voted for them last time? The situation has changed,” he queried.

Momodu added that if Tinubu allows a free and fair election, “he might not even get 3 million votes.”

He cited the poor performance of some G5 governors who could not secure senatorial seats in their states, including Enugu, Abia, and Benue, as evidence of shifting voter loyalty.

On coalition talks, the ADC chieftain said his party remains focused and steadfast.

He welcomed those willing to join but rejected any form of blackmail or the idea that victory depends on a single individual.

“Those who want to join should join. Those who do not want to join, you cannot succumb to blackmail. That only one man can make us win,” he declared.

He noted that the 2019 alliance between Atiku Abubakar and Obi did not produce victory, while their separate contests in 2023 also failed to unseat the ruling party.

He advised political actors to remain calm, quoting his late unlettered mother: “Stop running from whatever is chasing you, because you might run into what is chasing you.”

He wished the former Anambra governor well in testing his popularity elsewhere and stressed that no one should be forced out of the race based on one person’s claims.

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Nigerians Won’t Eat Your Bogus GDP Figures, ADC Tells FG

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The African Democratic Congress (ADC), on Wednesday, faulted the Federal government’s celebration of Nigeria’s reported GDP growth, saying the figures do not reflect the economic strain facing ordinary citizens.

The party’s position speaks to a growing gap between official claims of progress and the daily reality of rising food prices, shrinking incomes, job losses and mounting business costs across the country.

In a statement by its National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, the ADC said economic growth is meaningless if it does not improve how people actually live.

“People do not eat GDP,” Abdullahi said.

The party said millions of Nigerians remain trapped in hunger, inflation, unemployment and weakening purchasing power despite government claims of recovery.

Rejecting the government’s narrative, the ADC said, “The African Democratic Congress (ADC) rejects the Federal Government’s attempt to use headline GDP figures to whitewash the deep economic suffering Nigerians are currently enduring across the country.

“No government should be celebrating economic statistics while millions of its citizens are battling hunger, poverty, collapsing purchasing power, and rising hopelessness.

“The reality of the Nigerian economy is not what is written in government presentations. The reality is what Nigerians confront every day in markets, on farms, in factories, in shops, and in their homes.”

The party pointed to intensifying pressure on households and businesses nationwide.

Abdullahi said: “Food prices are unbearable. Transportation costs have become punitive. Small businesses are shutting down daily under the crushing weight of inflation, energy costs, and weak consumer demand. Salaries have lost value. Families who once lived modestly are now struggling to survive.

“Economic growth that does not reduce suffering, create jobs, improve incomes, or restore dignity to citizens is empty growth. Growth that only exists in official reports while citizens descend deeper into hardship is not meaningful progress.”

The ADC also questioned what Nigerians are being asked to celebrate under current conditions.

The party said, “The purpose of governance is not to manage public relations for economic statistics. The purpose of governance is to improve the living conditions of the people.

“What exactly should Nigerians celebrate? The fact that food inflation continues to devastate households? That millions of young Nigerians remain unemployed or underemployed? That businesses are collapsing faster than new ones are emerging? That more citizens are slipping into poverty despite working harder than ever?”

Calling for a shift in approach, the party urged the government to prioritise measurable improvements in citizens’ welfare over headline figures.

The ADC said: “A government that is serious about economic recovery would show humility, acknowledge the pain Nigerians are experiencing, and focus on delivering measurable improvements in living conditions instead of celebrating figures that have no meaning to hungry citizens.

“The ADC believes that the true test of economic policy is simple: Can Nigerians live better today than they did yesterday? For millions of Nigerians, the answer is no.

“Nigeria needs an economy that works for ordinary people, not an economy that only looks impressive in presentations to investors and international institutions.

“Until growth is felt in the homes of ordinary citizens, through affordable food, stable electricity, decent jobs, lower business costs, and improved purchasing power, this government has no moral basis to declare economic success.”

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I’m Not Leaving ADC, Rhodes-Vivour Vows

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The 2023 governorship candidate of the Labour Party (LP), in Lagos State, Gbadebo Rhodes-Vivour, has opted out of the Obidient Movement, saying he is not leaving the African Democratic Congress, ADC.

Rhodes-Vivour is a staunch supporter of Peter Obi, who moved from the ADC to the Nigerian Democratic Congress, NDC, on Sunday.

Since Obi and his prospective 2027 running mate, Rabiu Kwankwaso, joined NDC, there has been a gale of defections from the ADC to NDC.

However, in a statement on Tuesday, Rhodes-Vivour said himself and his team would remain in ADC to fight for a better Nigeria.

“To those who have made the difficult decision to move on to a new platform, I offer my genuine respect and best wishes.

“These are hard choices, We are all fighting for a better Nigeria, even when our roads diverge. I want to make it clear that I am staying in the ADC,” he said.

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