By Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba
There is a particular kind of political fury that comes not from anger alone, but from patience, the slow deliberate accumulation of grievances until the moment is ripe for a devastating counterstrike. In Kano politics today, that moment may be fast approaching, and at its centre stand two men whose destinies appear to be converging toward one explosive objective: defeating the All Progressives Congress (APC) in 2027.
We could recall that, Nasir Yusuf Gawuna delivered over 800,000 votes for the APC in 2023 and was rewarded with chairman Governing Council of Bayero University Kano, while others who either allegedly worked against the party or contributed nothing received ministerial and other juicy appointments. His entitlements as former deputy governor reportedly remain unpaid. His godfather Abdullahi Umar Ganduje moved on. The party that he bled for quietly discarded him.
Yet, beneath this unfolding drama lies a deeper historical irony that could now reshape Kano’s political future. Gawuna was not always outside the orbit of Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso. He was once a loyal Kwankwasiyya follower and served as a commissioner under Kwankwaso between 2011 and 2015 before realigning with Ganduje, first as commissioner and later as deputy governor. This history complicates the popular argument that Kwankwaso never forgives political defectors. On the contrary, emerging realities suggest that Kwankwaso may not only forgive Gawuna, but could elevate him, transforming a former defector into a “candidate of necessity.”
Meanwhile, Senator Kwankwaso, one of Nigeria’s most disciplined political generals, is carrying his own wound. His former godson Abba Kabir Yusuf, who rode to power largely on Kwankwasiyya’s machinery, has since drifted into open alignment with the APC, the movement’s historic adversary. For Kwankwaso, a man who thinks in decades, this perceived betrayal demands a response proportional to its scale and that response may well be delivered through Gawuna.
In purely electoral terms, the arithmetic is staggering. Gawuna’s 800,000-plus personal votes drawn from youth groups, Islamic clerics, and the Kano business community, layered on top of Kwankwasiyya’s legendary grassroots infrastructure, would produce a combination that analysts describe as simply unbeatable. What once looked like an unlikely reunion is increasingly being interpreted as a strategic convergence, one driven less by sentiment and more by necessity.
This is precisely why President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is reportedly alarmed enough to dispatch a Zamfara senator and a senior presidential adviser to reach Gawuna, while the APC dangles an automatic senatorial ticket as a sweetener. Kano is too critical to federal political calculations to lose without a fight.
Yet, the most telling detail in this entire drama is that Gawuna’s phone has reportedly been on “Do Not Disturb.” The man who was invisible to his party when appointments were being shared is now the most important call in northern Nigerian politics and he is on vacation in North Africa, unbothered.
That silence is not accidental. It is the posture of a man who finally has leverage and knows exactly how to use it.
Whether he ultimately answers Abuja’s calls or walks fully into Kwankwaso’s camp, one thing is already certain: the APC’s greatest threat in Kano 2027 may be the man they themselves abandoned.
Dr. Baba writes from Kano, and can be reached via drssbaba@yahoo.com
