Opinion
The Oracle: Democracy And Autocracy – The Missing Link (Pt. 4)
Published
4 years agoon
By
Eric
By Chief Mike Ozekhome
INTRODUCTION
Last week, we saw that autocracy is not just a mere form of government, but one that conquers the mind, and subject the people to underlings and minions. The people are helpless against an autocrat, who dominates them with power and might. Today, we shall dissect this form of government in such a way and to show its limitation vis a vis democracy.
TYPES OF AUTOCRACY (continues)
In all this is hardly a selection process that will lead to the noble and just reaching ultimate control. Still there is no reason to believe that the winners have bad motives. They are unusually ambitious, but not necessarily wicked in any other respect. They are as likely to choose a government policy that will benefit those subjected to the dictatorship as is a democratically elected president. In both cases intelligence, energy, ambition, and a lack of too many scruples are necessary. Once he has achieved power the autocrat will realize that the higher officials in his government would like to replace him. They are the instruments that he must use in governing but they are also his rivals. Keeping the system balanced so that he makes use of their talents while preventing one of them from making use of him as a stepping stone to ultimate power for himself is a difficult task, and one which he must master if he is to stay in power. Of course any knowledge of the history of such autocracies will show that not all of them succeed in that task.
Normally such a dictator has the best interest of his country and his citizens in mind, but it must necessarily take second-place to protecting his power. In this sense he is like a democratic president. The president normally aims at the good of his country, but he normally is more concerned with winning the next election. The two objectives do not necessarily conflict, but when they do, the president is apt to give winning election priority. Similarly a dictator will give preventing a coup or revolution priority over simply benefiting his subjects.
One thing that should be kept in mind dealing with either hereditary or non-hereditary autocrats is that their attitude to what are commonly called public goods is radically different than that of the ordinary person. For them many public goods are actually private goods. An improved road can be regarded as a public good from the standpoint of the citizens or the economic analysis, but it may increase the wealth or security of the autocrat and hence is a private good from his standpoint. This is of course one of the reasons why autocrats in fact provide so much in the way of public goods.
This should not be oversimplified, however. The autocrat like a democratic politician is aware of the fact that the road will benefit the country as a whole but also special-interest groups in it. Thus like a democratic politician he selects the public goods in part in terms of what they will do in benefiting influential individuals and groups who may repay that benefit by support. It is doubtful that by simply examining the road network or other collections of government expenditures on public goods one would be able to tell whether the government was a dictatorship or a democracy. If the democracy is not particularly corrupt, one could tell by examining such things as the Swiss bank accounts of the “President.”
Examining the personal life of the ruler is usually one way of telling whether he is a president or dictator. The dictator has far more facilities to keep things secret than does an elected president. He can have a spectacular mistress or even a harem; palaces much more elaborate than the White House, and take long vacations without the public finding out about them. Of course if he wishes to stay in power he will find that leaving his government to take care of itself for any length of time is likely to lead to his being replaced by one of his high-ranking subordinates.
The Oriental myth in which the ruler sits under a bare sword supported only by a thread is not a bad description of the life of such an autocrat. Many autocrats, Stalin and Mao Sze Dung are examples, have died naturally. Many others have died either by assassination or as the result of a successful coup. Finding it necessary to retire and live on their illicit gains in some place safer than their own country is also quite common. Trying to arrange a peaceful succession followed by a luxurious retirement is difficult.
The conventional wisdom assumes that dictators provide bad government. In the earlier part of my life, particularly during the 1960s, however, the orthodoxy held that certain dictators; specifically Stalin and Mao Sze Dung provided very much better governments than capitalist democracies. Many intellectuals genuinely believed that Ho Chi Min would give a better government than would any elected alternative. Yet, all such favored autocrats were mass murderers and all of them favored an economic system which, if at the time was fashionable, is now realized to be seriously defective. Ho’s rivals in the South were victimized by street riots in the United States that eventually led successive American governments to abandon them. In the case of one of them, Diem, President Kennedy actually organized a coup to get rid of him. Altogether uneasy lies the head that wears the crown.
We now turn to the more common type autocracy, the hereditary monarchy. It should be kept in mind that hereditary monarchies, if more stable than dictatorships, are by no means free of risk. Most of the readers of this encyclopedia will be more familiar with English history than other monarchies, and, as it happens, the English throne was one of the least stable in Europe. It was decidedly uncommon in England for a great-grandson to succeed to the throne peacefully. Most monarchies have been able to pass on their power with less difficulty so that three generations after the founder are reasonably common.
The hereditary king is in personality and ability quite different from the man who was fought his way up the slippery pole to dictatorship. In the first place the accidents of human heredity mean that the son of extraordinarily capable and ambitious person may well be quite stupid and lazy. Louis XVI seems to have been not very much above a moron in intellectual ability. He used to fall asleep at cabinet meetings. Since the United States was given its independence by his support, I suppose we should refrain from criticisms, though he was quickly abandoned by Thomas Jefferson once his purpose had been served. From the standpoint of France, however, Louis XVI was a disaster.
Of course, some hereditary monarchs are of outstanding capacity. Alexander the Great is an excellent example. But on the average hereditary monarchs do not have intellectual or character capacity greater than that of the average citizen. Typically, they receive special training as children intended to prepare them for royal careers. Unfortunately, this special training may educate them in expensive and entertaining ways of spending leisure time as well as in how to govern. In some cases, in fact training in luxury takes full priority over training intended to increase the competence of the future monarch. All this is rather similar to the training of the only son of a wealthy and powerful man in an open society. Altogether the hereditary monarch is quite a different person from the dictator who has achieved power by competition. It is not obvious which of them is better from the standpoint of the average citizen.
“The Prince” is largely devoted to advice to a sovereign ruler on how to retain power. Napoleon liked to keep his generals quarreling. Machiaveli would surely have approved. Mussolini moved his higher officials around and put some of them out of government for lengthy periods. He called this “changing the guard”. Once again he would have met the approval of the author of “The Prince”. Indeed most rulers do rotate the armed men who provide physical security. In Stalin’s time the secret police officers who guarded him and his higher officials would not know where they were to serve on a given day nor with whom would they be serving. These two things were determined by random draws so that they could not conspire in advance to admit dangerous persons.
Precautions like these are more frequently encountered among non-hereditary autocracies than among hereditary monarchies. Nevertheless, crown prince’s have killed their fathers and dynasties have been overthrown. So, at least some precautions are always necessary. It is not obvious that the cost of guarding an autocrat is greater than the cost of guarding presidents and legislatures. Indeed it seems likely that the total cost in terms of office space, living space when that is provided, and guards in Washington is greater than the equivalent cost in Berlin during the Third Reich. The guards serve a different purpose of course. The president does not fear assassination by a senator but by a conspiracy of low ranking people. Nevertheless he requires guards and so do the Senators, Congressman, and high civil servants.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN AUTOCRACY AND DEMOCRACY
The decision processes in democracies and in autocracies are quite different. In general, policy debates are conducted rather quietly in autocracies whereas they make a lot of noise in democracies. Further although autocrats sometimes tell their cabinet to vote on policies, the final decision is theirs. There is a myth that when Lincoln proposed the emancipation proclamation his cabinet all voted against. Lincoln then said, “Passed unanimously.” This is a myth but it does show the power that a central single person can have even in so-called democracies.
That the common man has little influence on policies in autocracies is normally regarded as a disadvantage of that form of government. There are, however, a number of cases in which democracies have been overthrown by autocrats with popular support. Both of the Napoleon’s carried off such an operation. So did Mussolini. Normally however autocracies are established by well entrenched and armed minorities that displace democracies by means of coups d’etat.
The view that democracy is better than autocracy is a current orthodoxy. There are cases where everyone favors the autocracy. The citizens of Rome and modern historians think that Augustus Caesar provides a better government than the late Republic. Gibbon lists the period of the adoptive emperors as the happiest time in the history of the human race. Not everyone is as enthusiastic, but it must be admitted that they gave very good government. One of them was also a philosopher of such importance that his work is still taught in modern universities.
There appear to have been three comparatively short periods in which democracy was common before modern times. It is not clear but it looks as if the first civilization, Sumer, had democratic aspects; but these were quickly extinguished. The second was a classical period of Greece Rome and Phoenicia. This ended when the Roman Republic conquered the bulk of the other democratic systems. It itself was replaced by emperors. The third case is a large collection of democratically governed city-states in the Middle Ages. Most but not all of these were replaced by 1600 or earlier. Altogether autocracies were the dominant to form of government until very recently. Whether they will continue to account for about half of all governments, or rise to complete dominance or fall back to a minority form of government is uncertain. I have my own preferences; but there is no evidence that these preferences will prevail. (To be continued).
FUN TIMES
There are two sides to every coin. Life itself contains not only the good, but also the bad and the ugly. Let us now explore these.
“Wife: In my dream, I saw you in a jewelry store and you bought me a diamond ring.
Husband: I had the same dream and I saw your dad paying the bill.” – Anonymous
“A girl realized that she had grown hair between her legs. She got worried and asked her mom about that hair. Her mom calmly said, that part where the hair has grown is called your monkey. Be proud that your monkey has grown hair. The girl smiled. At dinner, she told her sister, my monkey has grown hair. Her sister smiled and said, that’s nothing; mine is already eating bananas.”- Anna Fox
THOUGHT FOR THE WEEK
“Aside from the occasional genocide, evil and torture, etc., it is inarguable that public policy could be implemented more rapidly in an autocracy.” (David Harsanyi).
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Opinion
VOSO: God’s Gift to Mankind, and His People Knew Him Not
Published
3 days agoon
April 15, 2025By
Eric
By Prof Soji Adejumo
Writing a tribute on Dr. Victor Omololu Sowemino Olunloyo is like carrying out an anatomy on a mathematical, musical and philosophical genius. It’s a rare combination in a human being. A philosopher, a psychic, a mystic and a poet.
“The memory of a great man is like a candle in the darkness, illuminating our path and guiding us forward”
If mathematics, music, the literary arts and philosophy are codified into an earthly religion, Dr. Omololu Olunloyo would be its high priest. Dr. Olunloyo ministered at the altar of the highest intellectual faculties.
In a scenario akin to general relativity, writing a tribute on this intellectual enigma is like reworking different tributes Dr. Olunloyo has written on tens of other people over the course of six decades. In each tribute is a tribute on himself. when his official biographer informed me of his commission to write his biography, I knew the task would be simultaneously difficult and easy. Easy because, the great man has written or contributed to so many lectures, books, monograms and other publications that you can find part of his autobiography in every publication. The difficult part is it would take a very high degree of ingenuity to unravel and put together all those pieces of auto-biographical works. He has expressed parts of himself in all his literary works.
My personal relationship with Dr. Omololu Olunloyo started in 1968 when I got admitted into Ibadan Grammar School and he was the Commissioner for education in the cabinet of the then Colonel Adeyinka Adebayo. My late father was the Vicar of St David’s Church kudeti and his in-law as Dr. Olunloyo was married to my aunty Funmilayo who is my father’s cousin. We are both descendants of priests as my father, grandfather and Dr. Olunloyo’s grandfather were Anglican priests. His father and my grandfather (The late Rev. J.S. Adejumo) were founding members of the Ibadan progressive Union (IPU).
However, his influence on my life started during my first year in Ibadan Grammar School in 1968 when I was awarded the Western State Government Scholarship for my “0” Levels. I later went on to receive the C Zard Scholarship for my higher school certificate “A levels”. After my higher School course, I started making plans to travel abroad for my university education.
Meanwhile, I had been offered a direct entry admission to the University of Ibadan but I did not accept the offer, neither did I decline or defer it. I simply ignored it until the offer lapsed. Unfortunately, my quest to travel abroad fell through and I decided to take up the University of Ibadan offer which had already expired. I ran to Dr. Omololu Olunloyo. I caught up with him in his office at the department of Mathematics in the University and explained my plight along with my expired admission letter. He jumped into his car and we drove straight to see the University registrar. The registrar was Mr. S. J. Okudu. VOSO simply marched into the office with me in tow and started a monologue with the registrar. I remember his words very clearly “My nephew had an admission which had lapsed, I would want you to resuscitate the admission now so he can start his enrolment and make the matriculation” Mr. Okudu was trying to let him know it was a bit difficult but VOSSO would not listen. He was offered a chair but he refused it and said he only wanted my admission letter resuscitated. After marching up and down the registrar’s office for several minutes still reciting his monologue, the registrar called the admissions officer and directed that a fresh admission letter be issued to me. That was how I entered the University.
Due to my late admission, I had a bit of an initial challenge with accommodation and I was practically living with him and that was the beginning of a ritual he initiated me into. It was a ritual which started early on Sunday mornings and ended very late in the evening. I was already a prolific pianist, organist and music enthusiast and Dr. Olunloyo had started acquiring a vast library of classical music which has become a collector’s dream anywhere and in any locality. We would start the day with classical music by the greatest composers in the likes of Beethoven, Mozart, Bach, Handel, Schuman, Tchaikovsky, Chopin etc and also the works of celebrated conductors, pianists, violinists and soloists. He had the music on vinyl records in those days and also the sheet music scores of some of them. I would play some of the scores on his piano and he would give me a comprehensive lecture on every piece and the history and background of the composers including information not readily available on some of them. The sessions would be generally serviced with surplus bottles of cold beer and fried chicken. I would leave the sitting room at the end of the day with wobbly legs and go to the lecture room the following day with a hangover. That ritual lasted till the end of the first term when I realized I would have to make a choice between acquiring an external “degree” in music and entertainment in Dr. Olunloyos house or a degree in Animal Science from the University. I opted for the latter and gradually weaned myself of the odd bucolic routine but our mutual bond with music lasted till his transition. Thankfully he got a federal government appointment as the head of the National Science and Technology Development Agency and that enabled me to escape temporarily from the music/beer and chicken ritual. However, when I finished my undergraduate degree, I went to him and asked for employment in his agency. He flatly refused and commanded me to get back fully into pursuing a goal of acquiring postgraduate degrees before looking for any type of employment. He said he could employ me instantly and post me anywhere in the country but he would not as he wanted me to go back to the University. I was initially disappointed by his stance of which my father was extremely happy and contented. The oracle has spoken and he must be obeyed. I ended up with a doctorate. A few weeks after my doctorate degree he was given the governorship ticket of the NPN and I was extremely sad because many of us younger ones considered Chief Obafemi Awolowo as a mini god and the anointed savior of Nigeria and Yoruba people. Those not in the Action group were considered traitors. More so Uncle Bola Ige was an Old Boy of Ibadan Grammar school and my father’s junior in the school. I was a political neophyte at the time. In annoyance, I went to Dr. Olunloyo’s house where I met a huge number of NPN bigwigs eating and drinking and various groups were huddled together in meetings. I went upstairs where Auntie Funmilayo also served me a plate pounded yam and isapa vegetable (which was an unusual soup in Ibadan) soup with the traditional beer to complement it all. In the course of the meal. VOSO came up and saw me but before he could talk, I got up and asked him why he would commit a sacrilege by aligning against Chief Awolowo and Uncle Bola Ige. The great VOSO completely ignored the question only to simply ask why I was sweating in the room. I replied, it was due to the hot Pounded yam and the equally hot isapa vegetable soup. He nodded and said, “keep eating the pounded yam and the soup, as soon as you finish it just go and leave the politics to us”. With that he left the room! That was vintage VOSO, the man who will later award the title of Ooni of Molete to himself!
Several years later, we rekindled our Sunday afternoon ritual of music but now without the beer and chicken but we would still spend hours in his Molete library playing amid listening to the great classicals. Over a course of about 60 years, he has acquired such a huge and unmatchable library of music in Cds, DVDs and Books with an auction value running into million of dollars. A few years ago, I asked him what plans he had for the protection and preservation of the INESTIMABLE collection of books and music in his library and he told me what he had done, which I believe will help to preserve this rare library in all its glory and also in its original form. The genius in VOSO can never be matched or replicated in an ordinary mortal. It is simply impossible. He had the most historical and mathematical mindset like no one else I knew on earth. He had the rarest of books on mathematics and on music that would require a trip to the ends of the earth to find them. From books on “the mathematics of music”, to “the music of mathematics” and on the origins of algebra and the theory of numbers, he had them. He would spend hours explaining concepts that were completely alien to me about mathematics and I dared not let the genius, the deity, know I was not comprehendimg anything!
He shocked me one day when at a public lecture I was invited to deliver at the Omolewa nursery and primary school 50th anniversary, he took the microphone and announced that I am a genius of musical interpretation because I recognized what Wolfgang Mozart did even before coming into contact with his iconic works on them. This was simply because I had attempted to transpose a solo aria “Rejoice Greatly, O daughter of Zion” from Handel’s Messiah from soprano to tenor as the organ accompanist for its performance because the soprano could not achieve the high vocal notes of that piece, after many failed attempts. I was convinced that the vocal registers of west African Voices may be deeper or lower than European vocal boxes and so I considered a lower transposition a good option. However, my senior organist absolutely refused as he considered it a treasonable offence to tamper with the great Handel’s tonal arrangement. I reluctantly abandoned that experiment.
A few weeks later, during our routine Sunday ritual, Dr. Olunloyo asked us to listen to Mozart’s rearrangement of Handels’ Messiah. That was my first time of knowing that Mozart dared to rearrange the Messiah. We started to play the cds and when it got to “Rejoice greatly….” the arrangement was sung by a Tenor!!! I was enthused and out of excitement I narrated my attempts and how Mozart had proved me right. Note though, that Mozart only dared to tread because Handel was no longer alive at the time. Since then, he kept calling me a genius of musical interpretation!
But VOSO had the last word — After the oratorio, he asked me the fundamental difference between the works of Handel with other European composers and with Mozart’s works. Before I could muster an intelligible answer, He quickly emphasized that Mozart’s works were more German than any other German or European composers because his compositions were harsh just like the German language! He now proceeded to lecture me on how the tonal linguistics of the German language is the harshest in the world. His lecture would have generated a huge and robust discourse in linguistics.
I am not sure the world really knew the depth and content of Dr. Olunloyo’s brains. The same genius he had in Algebra Geometry, he possessed in Poetry, music and culture. He was the Nigerian version of the Greats, like, Albert Einstein, Leonardo da Vinci, Isaac Newton, Stephen Hawking, Nikola Tesla, etc. Truly and Truly, a star has fallen. The shining light is dimmed. Good night and rest in peace, Great Master and Genius
Prof Soji Adejumo is the Ajiroba of Ibadanland, and Asipa Olomi of Omi Adio
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Opinion
Ovation International: African Dream Globally Projected
Published
5 days agoon
April 13, 2025By
Eric
By Dr. Sani S. Baba
In a world where African stories were too often filtered through the lenses of poverty, conflict, and underdevelopment, one man dared to reframe the narrative. That man is Chief Dele Momodu, and his creation Ovation International Magazine became the bold lens through which Africa’s glamour, success, and brilliance could finally be seen, appreciated, and celebrated. How Momodu’s vision transformed Africa’s narrative, created opportunities in the last three decades and is still in conformity with the ever changing world remains a subject to be studied.
Founded 29 years ago in April, 1996, during Momodu’s political exile in the United Kingdom, Ovation International was born out of a simple but radical idea: Africa deserves to be seen in full color. While most Western publications chose to spotlight despair, Momodu’s mission was to showcase excellence from fashion, business, entertainment, and politics, to philanthropy and innovation. In other words, the child of circumstance as some call it, Ovation has proved that Africa is not synonymous with bad news.
Moreover, in changing the African narrative, Momodu’s vision was bigger than just glossy pages. He aimed to create a cultural revolution. Ovation became the red carpet for African stars long before global media paid attention to the continent. The magazine gave African personalities celebrities, presidents, royalty, entrepreneurs a platform to tell their own stories, in their own voice.
Through dazzling photo spreads and exclusive interviews, Ovation didn’t just report the news; it celebrated achievements, redefining what it meant to be African in a globalized world. From Accra, Ghana to Abuja, Lagos to London, Liberia, Kenya, Sierra Leone, South Africa, etc, the magazine quickly became a status symbol a staple at high profile events and elite homes.
Further more, as a pan-African vision with global impact, what set Ovation apart was its immense love for Africa, making it an African identity with international reach. Chief Dele Momodu didn’t restrict the magazine’s lens to Nigeria alone. He traveled extensively, covering events in Ghana, South Africa, Sierra Leone, Cote dIvoire, and far beyond. Ovation became the de facto platform for the African diaspora, connecting the continent to its global community in Europe, the U.S., and the Caribbean.
In terms of job creation, Ovation International Magazine has done wonders. Beyond the pages, Ovation has been a powerful engine for employment. As one of the few African-owned international lifestyle magazines, it created jobs across sectors journalism, photography, videography, fashion, makeup, event planning, printing, and logistics. Emerging talents were given a springboard to launch their careers, while professionals found a platform that respected and valued their craft.
In the early 2000s, when media digitization was still young in Africa, Ovation began pioneering multimedia storytelling, hiring tech-savvy youth for video editing, social media marketing, and digital design effectively nurturing a new generation of African media professionals.
Today, Ovation International is more than a magazine, but a legacy, a movement, and a symbol of African excellence. Chief Dele Momodu, with his relentless belief in the continent’s potential, has proven that African stories, when told with pride and power, can reshape perceptions and influence generations.
By putting African success stories on the global stage and backing them with real opportunities, Momodu didn’t just build a media empire, but a mirror in which Africa could see its true, radiant reflection.
In an age of fleeting digital fame, Ovation remains timeless because it didn’t chase trends, it made an indelible history.
Long live Ovation International Magazine, and happy 65th birthday to its founder, Chief Dele Momodu, the pride of Africa.
Dr. Sani S. Baba writes from Kano
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Opinion
President Trump’s Tariffs and the Big Bang Effect
Published
1 week agoon
April 8, 2025By
Eric
By Magnus Onyibe
A peek into Canadian, Mexican, Chinese, European, Japanese, and Korean media platforms reveals palpable angst, driven by strong expressions of nationalistic passion against the 47th President of the United States, Donald J. Trump, and his administration. Citizens of these countries are expressing indignation due to the ongoing trade war—especially regarding the 10% across-the-board tariff on imports from 180 countries and, in some cases, additional tariffs of up to 54% on imported vehicles and other goods into the US from around 60 nations.
The tariffs took effect on April 2, a date President Trump has dubbed Liberation Day—drawing a parallel to July 4, 1776, when the original 13 American colonies declared independence from Britain after a brutal war.
In line with America’s foundational respect for freedom of speech and association, it’s remarkable—and indeed ironic—that, unlike other nations whose media are responding with patriotic fervor, the American media have not rallied behind their president. Instead of pushing back against foreign hostility, the highly vibrant US media have joined the global chorus in criticizing President Trump’s “America First” policies. In some quarters, they are even vilifying or outright demonizing their own president.
Such is the potency of free speech in the United States—a feature perhaps best captured by the concept of American Exceptionalism.
Despite a tumbling stock market and widespread protests fueled by fears of inflation and an impending recession—as predicted by anti-Trump politicians—President Trump appears unperturbed by the tumultuous effects his tariff policies are having on US trading partners. In fact, he has threatened to raise tariffs even further if Canada and European countries attempt to collude against the US. Although this has yet to happen, China—arguably the hardest hit—has retaliated with a 34% tariff on US imports.
In my view, these developments are reshaping the global trade ecosystem. As countries seek alternative trade partners to avoid the constraints of trading with the US on Trump’s terms, they may carve out entirely new trade pathways. Thus, the net effect of President Trump’s sweeping tariff hikes—targeting both allies and rivals—can be likened to the Big Bang.
The Big Bang theory, the leading explanation for the origin and evolution of the universe, posits that the universe began as an infinitely hot and dense singularity about 13 billion years ago. According to its proponents, this singularity expanded rapidly, cooling and giving rise to subatomic particles, atoms, stars, and galaxies. The universe, they say, is still expanding—accelerated by the mysterious force known as dark energy.
President Trump’s “bang” can be seen through a similar lens: an explosive policy shift—rooted in an unconventional America First ideology—that has disrupted all previous global trade arrangements. Like a singularity, his approach is transforming the established order, replacing it with an untested but highly consequential framework. Though unproven in the modern era, it already appears to be generating seismic changes across the global economy.
Trump is leveraging tariffs as a strategy to boost job creation and repatriate manufacturing to the US. He also views them as a tool to generate revenue to reduce the national budget deficit, which stands at a staggering $36 trillion and continues to grow.
Given the global upheaval triggered by this astronomical tariff increase, it is difficult to find a better metaphor for Trump’s trade policy than the Big Bang. The ripple effects are so powerful that fear has gripped not only North and South American neighbors, but also Europeans, Asians, Arabs, and Africans—on both sides of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.
The only country that might remain untouched or unaffected by the far-reaching Trump effect is one operating in complete autarky—such as the reclusive regime of Kim Jong Un in North Korea.
While the Big Bang theory provides a comprehensive explanation for the origins of the universe, many unanswered questions remain—such as what caused the universe to begin expanding in the first place, and what is the true nature of dark matter and dark energy.
Similarly, what explains President Trump’s determination to upend the old world order remains an enigma to his opponents. At this point, not even his staunchest devotees can convincingly argue that his motives are purely patriotic, driven by the Make America Great Again (MAGA) ideology with the primary aim of correcting trade imbalances and closing the deficit gap that has led to a massive budget shortfall.
Of course, as is typical in opposition politics, Trump’s high tariffs and efforts to reduce the size of the US government—driven by the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DoGE) under the leadership of Elon Musk, the world’s richest man—are being framed as a gambit to cut taxes for billionaires. That narrative seems to have resonated, as Americans have taken to the streets in protest, in ways that suggest resistance to what former President Joe Biden described as an “oligarchic regime,” citing the number of billionaires in Trump’s cabinet.
The reality, however, is that Trump’s “bang” is not a one-size-fits-all solution. It affects different countries and regions in different ways.
Starting with Africa, where aid is critically needed to manage persistent social and public health challenges like HIV/AIDS, the suspension of USAID funding by President Trump is deeply concerning. USAID has been a vital source of funding for health and humanitarian initiatives, and its absence poses a significant threat. This is especially so because many African leaders have practically abdicated their responsibilities in this area, relying heavily on donor countries—led by the US—to provide for their citizens.
With USAID funding now cut off, many African countries are left scrambling to fill the gap. In Nigeria, the government has made an extra-budgetary provision of $200 million for healthcare services, while the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has injected almost $200 million into the foreign exchange (FX) market to help cushion the volatility and uncertainty resulting from the tariff hikes.
In Europe, the 25% tariff imposed on vehicles and alcoholic beverages—particularly from France and Scotland—poses a massive economic challenge. Many European economies are either already in recession or teetering on the brink. Even more alarming is the US threat to withdraw from its heavy financial commitment to NATO, coupled with demands that member nations pay up their dues. This creates a sense of vulnerability, especially as fears rise that Vladimir Putin may turn his attention to another European country after Ukraine.
From my perspective, the European Union’s support for Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine is less about altruism and more about self-interest—the first rule of nature. This is evidenced by the show of unity by European leaders around Zelensky after he was snubbed at the White House by President Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance. This strategic interest is also why Europe is now planning to set up a joint European military force as an alternative to NATO—an initiative already underway. But given the current economic strain on European economies, is the formation of a standing European force feaseable?
Regarding the high tariffs, Europe appears to have adopted a measured response, likely in line with the counsel of Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Hence it seems to have adopted a studied approach.
The Arab world is also not left out. President Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” mantra means that the US will reduce its dependence on oil imports from countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman. Instead of preserving strategic oil reserves, the US will now focus on domestic drilling. Trump’s rationale appears to be that if fossil fuels are eventually being phased out due to the rise of Electric Vehicles (EVs), then it makes sense to exploit the existing oil reserves before combustion-engine vehicles become obsolete.
In any case, Trump has never embraced climate change in the way it is currently framed. The world is alarmed that he has once again pulled the US out of the Paris Climate Accord, after former President Biden had rejoined during his administration. With oil prices crashing due to the tariff shock, an OPEC strategy meeting may soon be on the horizon.
China, currently celebrated as the world’s foremost manufacturing hub and the second-largest economy, has borne the brunt of Trump’s trade war. The 54% tariff imposed on goods ranging from vehicles to washing machines has essentially locked China out of the US market. These items were previously taxed at 10–25%, but after Trump’s April 2 Rose Garden announcement, the tariff soared to 54%. In response, China has imposed a 34% tariff on US exports. That has excerbated the chaos already wracking the global economy in the past couple of days.
The rationale behind these tariffs, according to Trump, is to bring manufacturing back to the US from Mexico, Canada, China, and Europe, where it had migrated due to what he deems as unfair trade practices. His strategy is designed to reverse this trend.
By understanding how President Trump’s influence is shaping events across Western, Asian, Middle Eastern (Arab), and African regions, we can better grasp the phenomenon—The Trump Effect—that I am likening to the Big Bang. Hopefully, this will encourage a more balanced perspective and lead to negotiations rather than a tit-for-tat trade war.
One irrefutable fact is that Trump is rewriting the global trade rulebook, and he is doing so by squelching globalization—a phenomenon that began between the late 18th and early 19th centuries. Placing this into historical context, the Silk Road and the Industrial Revolution—which began in Great Britain following the invention of the steam engine and the mechanical loom—kickstarted global trade by enabling mass production for markets beyond local demand.
In the modern era, global trade received a significant boost from the establishment of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in 1971, in Davos, Switzerland. Since then, global trade has been guided by the Davos Manifesto, which champions ethical entrepreneurship, responsible governance, and the neutral ideals of Swiss diplomacy—underpinning the spirit of globalization. A formal charter for this vision was adopted in 1973 and renewed in 2020.
History shows that global trade thrives when protected—and falters when it is not. For instance, trade in silk and spices between China and Rome during the first century BC flourished when protected by powerful empires. Once those empires declined, so did the trade routes and their prosperity.
Now, as President Trump—the leader of the current global hegemon—takes a protectionist stance, it is consistent with his past. He has long used tariffs as a tool for economic leverage. Even back in 1988, in an interview with Oprah Winfrey, Trump,then a real estate mogul criticized China for what he saw as exploitation of the US economy.
Trump is not alone in this. A resurfaced video from 1996 shows Nancy Pelosi, then a Congresswoman from California, opposing a bill that would give China a special trade status. She argued against tariff exemptions for Chinese products—effectively advocating for the same policy Trump now champions.
In summary, the use of tariffs as a strategic tool in global trade has bipartisan roots in the US. What has changed is the scale and audacity of the Trump administration’s approach, which has sent shockwaves across the global economic landscape—earning it the moniker of a Big Bang moment in trade history.
So, Trump is literally echoing Pelosi’s sentiments with his current introduction of high tariffs. The only difference is that the tariff hike is not limited to China but has been extended to roughly 180 countries, with an estimated 60 nations significantly affected.
Even more interestingly, reports suggest that as recently as 2019, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders was also on record proposing the use of tariffs as a defense against unfair trade practices—an argument now forming the basis of Trump’s ongoing global tariff war, which has placed the world on edge.
Experts familiar with the history and current application of tariffs reveal that about $400 billion worth of U.S. products were tariffed during Trump’s first term. In his current second term, projections suggest that up to $1 trillion worth of goods may fall under U.S. trade tariffs.
According to estimates by economists, approximately $3.3 billion worth of imports arrive in the U.S. annually.
President Trump is convinced that his high-tariff regime will generate more wealth for the United States through increased domestic production, which would, in turn, boost employment for working-class Americans. Another key objective is to create fairness in trade between the U.S. and its trading partners, whom Trump has accused of benefiting unfairly at America’s expense.
Ultimately, President Trump aims to use the proceeds from these high tariffs to help close the $36 trillion budget deficit currently facing the world’s largest and most powerful economy.
In light of this, Mr. Peter Navarro, Trump’s trade adviser, believes that high tariffs have the potential to generate over $6 trillion for the U.S. in the short term.
In all of this, my main concern and interest ly in how Africa can benefit from the reimagining of the global socioeconomic ecosystem, as President Trump upends the old world order.
With a 14% tariff now imposed by the U.S. on Nigerian goods and 10% across most of the 54 nations continent , Nigeria’s exports to the U.S.—valued at between $5–$6 billion (with oil and gas making up over 90% and non-oil/gas exports accounting for less than 10%)—are under threat.
Even among non-oil/gas exports, the bulk comprises raw materials such as urea/fertilizer, ammonia, flower plants, and cashew nuts, which make up about 8%.
It is disappointing that value-added or processed exports from Nigeria to the U.S. are so minuscule—just 2%.
Despite this low figure, the imposition of a 14% tariff on Nigerian goods—despite the trade balance favoring the U.S.—should serve as a wake-up call for Nigeria, and indeed all of Africa, to begin adding value to their exports. If non-oil exports, facing a 10% tariff, are to be competitive in the U.S. market, they must move up the value chain.
The dominance of raw materials in Nigeria’s exports reflects the country’s continuing role as a supplier of raw materials to the industrialized nations of Europe, North America, and Asia. Among the six continents, only South America and the Arab world have yet to fully exploit Africa as a raw material source and dumping ground for finished products. So, for too long Africa has remained the weeping child as it has held the wrong end of the stick and it must make strategic and intentional efforts to change the negative narrative.
What the Trump tariffs spells in my mind is deglobalization as economic trade and investments between countries go on decline. But the global tariff war is also an opportunity for the continent to reposition herself on the global stage by taking a collective stance on how African countries can trade amongst themselves who to trade with in global south or west and even Asia based on her terms not the Berlin, Germany type of framework and agreement when she was not at the table when her resources were being shared as war spoils amongst Europeans who transformed from African slave traders into colonialists exploiting the resources of the continent.
Although, stocks have been crashing worldwide since the hike in tariffs by Trump it may be recalled that stock prices also rose sharply upon the innauguration of Trump on 20th January and has fallen therafter. Similarly, the stocks that have tanked globally in the past few days may rise again once clarity is achieved. With barely 100 days into his four (4) years tenure those projecting that President Trump and the Republican party may be punished by the electorate during mid -term elections that comes up 100 days shy of two (2) years, may be too hasty in their judgement.
That is because in politics a lot could still happen in the lifespan of Trump’s administration which is still 100 days shy of the 730 days(two years ) tenure to change course if the reciprocal high tariffs imposition on trading partners does not pan out well with high inflation wrecking the economy or unemployement rising astronomically to the point that US economy stagnates or goes into recession as being predicted by those against Trump’s unorthodox policies.
In the event that the unique approach defies the logic of economists, Trump may turnout to be the a hero of the new world order.
Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy aadvocate, development strategist, alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.
To continue with this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng.
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