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Opinion: Past Truth and Present Dangers in Nigeria’s Democracy: Time to Pause and Think

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By Sani Sa’idu Baba

Recently, I came across a very interesting assertion by Roger Scruton in a dictionary of political thoughts thus: “…the concept of democracy is immensely complicated partly because of difficulties in understanding who the people are, and which acts of government are truly theirs rather than those of some dominant group or interest”. Let me reiterate at this point that I am neither a politician nor a political ally to anyone. Rather, I am a citizen with concern for the public and not bitter against any of our leaders or aspirants. However, as fascinating as the concept of egalitarianism is, there exists a wide gap between its theory and practice and indeed between the theory and practice of democracy itself. There is hardly anywhere in the world where democracy is a republic of equals because, as Kenneth Janda have asserted, ‘through occupation or wealth, some citizens are more able than others to influence political decisions’. Indeed, the elite theory is founded on the notion that politics is an affair of the coherent minority dominating the incoherent majority. Terms such as the people, the masses or the majority should even be used with caution as it is often difficult to identify what or who is meant by these terms in the specific case and even more difficult to gauge the attitudes and interests of these terms even when and where they are identified. I will briefly expand on this point subsequently.

Democracy term was first mentioned about 2500 years ago in Greece cities. Back then, it was the opposite to aristocracy form of government. The modern type of democracy developed in the 19th and 20th centuries. Being a democratic country is the latest trend ever since the 1970s. A lot of nations share the values carried by the term and Nigeria is not an exception. However, democracy in Nigeria stands to be unique due to some impediments to the institutionalisation of democracy in Nigeria after more than half a century of political independence. Some of these are the country’s colonial background interspersed by vagaries engendered by deep-rooted ethnicity; complacent and spendthrift leadership; incessant intervention of the military in the democratic process; electoral fraud; wide spread poverty and high illiteracy level. I am of the belief that the pivot around which most of the factors listed above revolve is corruption which has virtually become a way of life in Nigeria. Whether the present government of President Muhammadu Buhari on the fight against corruption which is the cardinal theme of his administration is a myth or reality is a different topic for another day.

Our country keeps developing and there are still so many things to improve. Changes are necessary for political, economic, and social development. The history of democracy in Nigeria is still not over because of its highly dynamic nature largely different from how it’s been practiced by its founding fathers. Although no country on earth is perfect, but lapses goes unnoticed by virtue of the fact that successful nations are not governed by scent but by performance as popularly mentioned by a great African writer and philanthropist, Chief Dr Dele Momodu. Nations are constantly learning how to tolerate, stay out of corruption, choose the right leaders and plan for the future. These tasks are not easy. Being a republic is never simple. Of course Nigeria has been a true republic by name, but been able to utilize democracy to install its leaders is a myth rather than reality. My reasons will be clearly discussed in a jiffy.

Over the years, Nigeria celebrates May 29th as the official public holiday to mark Democracy Day. Still, the democratic start point really began in 1960. It was on the 1st of October when Nigeria publicly announced its independence from Great Britain. There was a long history of different government forms in Nigeria ever since 1960 fluctuating between democracy and military rule. But there has never been uninterrupted democracy until 1999, though some rulers promised to return to democracy along the line, however, only General Abdulsalami Abubakar who took the power after the death of Sani Abacha in 1998 kept his word by handing over power to former head of state and military ruler, converted democrat in the person of Chief Olusegun Obasanjo after a keenly contested election between him and Chief Olufalaye reflecting a contest between two Southwesterners. The country’s modern Constitution became official in 1999.

The elections of 1999 were successful to the previous military ruler. The new President Olusegun Obasanjo maintained the legacy of eneral Abdussalami Abubakar by putting the end to the military regimes that kept switching one after the other for nearly 30 years. Nigeria’s democracy is celebrated yearly. Though it is undeniable that Nigeria still has many problems to overcome; Nigerians have dreams about a bright and prosperous future with better economy, improved standard of living and most importantly, security. Whether the failure to achieving those dreams might be attributed to the fact that democratically elected presidents of Nigeria are merely extension of the previous military regimes remains a controversial issue over the years. This is because, during this 22 years old democracy which is still considered a baby, about 16 years were governed by former military dictators and head of states, Olusegun Obasanjo and Muhammadu Buhari and even late Umaru Musa Yaradua though civilian but is believed to have emanated from a military background. It must be stressed however that military incursion into politics is not peculiar to Nigeria, it is a world-wide phenomenon though notoriously prevalent in Africa. While I may not venture into a detailed enquiry into the proximate causes of the prevalence of coups and coup attempts in Africa, suffice it to state that there are a number of causative factors. At the risk of over generalisation, one is that countries where poverty is prevalent and per capital GDP is low are places where successful coups often take place. Moreover, Diamond and Plattner have asserted that where civil society is weak and politicians are corrupt and divided, the military ‘will prevail in the moment of opportunity’. Despite Nigeria being in possession of these characteristics especially the highly prevalent poverty, both the military and civilians are to a large extent loyal to our democratically elected leaders. Hence the need for our leaders to at least pause and reason.

Democracy and Nigeria are like Siamese twins; though conjoined, they are uncomfortable and under intense pressure that could result in all forms of hurt, even death. Although, democracy may not be strange to an overwhelming percentage of Nigerians; what may be strange to them is the brand of democracy that invests, first and foremost, in human and material resources for the purposes of political stability, economic viability, scientific advancement, technological breakthrough, educational development and life-enhancing social services. Given the general optimism that Nigeria was going to be the bastion of democracy in Africa following her independence from Britain in 1960, one should normally expect that by now democracy should be deeply rooted and institutionalised in the country. Ironically and unfortunately, Nigeria, as far as the practice and delivery of dividends of liberal democracy is concerned, is yet a cripple that can barely stand let alone walk or run.

There are four (4) key features that reflects on the present dangers of Nigeria democracy. First, it is spendthrift. Nigerian democracy is a brand of democracy that spends so much to accomplish so little. Second, it invests in the comfort of officials rather than in human and material resources. In fact, the welfare of the common man occupies the bottom rung on the ladder of the priorities of the anchors of Nigerian democracy. A classic example here is the salary of a Nigerian senator in comparison to minimum wage of Nigeria civil servants. Needless to mention all the figures because they very much available as reported by various reliable media outlets, but the gap would certainly leave every reasonable human being thinking about the ruined future of the common man in Nigeria, a country that practice capitalism without capital. Third, Nigeria’s democracy is plagued by hydra-headed and pathological corruption that ensures that the impact of any seeming good policy is either extremely negligible or almost exactly nil. Fourth, this is based on my opinion, the most catastrophic, and that is the habit of installing our leaders based on tribe, region and religion irrespective of their competencies. My write up today will dwell largely on the fourth item because it’s arguably the root cause of all the problems.

I am only about 35 years old now but I could vividly remember seeing my father pasting the posters of late Chief MKO Abiola on the walls of our house, portraying his solidarity and support to Yoruba presidency against the Kano state born opponent, Alhaji Bashir Usman Tofa, during the later annulled June 12, 1993 presidential elections. Although he was not a politician, he had never ceased to be an advocate of good and competent leaders. Besides, modest people always prefer to distance themselves from this type of politics that is oft-cited as a dirty game in Nigeria. This attitude is perhaps the reason Nigeria was lucky to had better leaders in the last couple of years when compared to the type of leaders we have today, simply described as self-centered leaders.

It is not however, the same today. I strongly believe that if majority of Nigerians will understand the fact that our leaders are united at the centre devoid of differences, we will overcome the multifactorial hardships we are experiencing, largely attributed to the lackadaisical attitude of our leaders. Take for instance, recently about three governors in Nigeria cross-carpeted from the main opposition party PDP to the ruling party, the APC – two of them are from the South; Ebonyi and Cross River state. The most recent is the Zamfara state governor. This is enough to tell us that party politics is catastrophic and against the populace because these governors did not decamp in the interest of their people.

My appeal therefore, to Nigerians today is to vote in trusted and tested leaders irrespective of ethno-religious differences for this is one of the ways to mitigate against the deeply rooted divisions inherent in the body polity.

Baba writes from Kano, and can be reached via drssbaba@yahoo.com

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Opinion

VOSO: God’s Gift to Mankind, and His People Knew Him Not

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By Prof Soji Adejumo

Writing a tribute on Dr. Victor Omololu Sowemino Olunloyo is like carrying out an anatomy on a mathematical, musical and philosophical genius. It’s a rare combination in a human being. A philosopher, a psychic, a mystic and a poet.

“The memory of a great man is like a candle in the darkness, illuminating our path and guiding us forward”

If mathematics, music, the literary arts and philosophy are codified into an earthly religion, Dr. Omololu Olunloyo would be its high priest. Dr. Olunloyo ministered at the altar of the highest intellectual faculties.
In a scenario akin to general relativity, writing a tribute on this intellectual enigma is like reworking different tributes Dr. Olunloyo has written on tens of other people over the course of six decades. In each tribute is a tribute on himself. when his official biographer informed me of his commission to write his biography, I knew the task would be simultaneously difficult and easy. Easy because, the great man has written or contributed to so many lectures, books, monograms and other publications that you can find part of his autobiography in every publication. The difficult part is it would take a very high degree of ingenuity to unravel and put together all those pieces of auto-biographical works. He has expressed parts of himself in all his literary works.

My personal relationship with Dr. Omololu Olunloyo started in 1968 when I got admitted into Ibadan Grammar School and he was the Commissioner for education in the cabinet of the then Colonel Adeyinka Adebayo. My late father was the Vicar of St David’s Church kudeti and his in-law as Dr. Olunloyo was married to my aunty Funmilayo who is my father’s cousin. We are both descendants of priests as my father, grandfather and Dr. Olunloyo’s grandfather were Anglican priests. His father and my grandfather (The late Rev. J.S. Adejumo) were founding members of the Ibadan progressive Union (IPU).

However, his influence on my life started during my first year in Ibadan Grammar School in 1968 when I was awarded the Western State Government Scholarship for my “0” Levels. I later went on to receive the C Zard Scholarship for my higher school certificate “A levels”. After my higher School course, I started making plans to travel abroad for my university education.

Meanwhile, I had been offered a direct entry admission to the University of Ibadan but I did not accept the offer, neither did I decline or defer it. I simply ignored it until the offer lapsed. Unfortunately, my quest to travel abroad fell through and I decided to take up the University of Ibadan offer which had already expired. I ran to Dr. Omololu Olunloyo. I caught up with him in his office at the department of Mathematics in the University and explained my plight along with my expired admission letter. He jumped into his car and we drove straight to see the University registrar. The registrar was Mr. S. J. Okudu. VOSO simply marched into the office with me in tow and started a monologue with the registrar. I remember his words very clearly “My nephew had an admission which had lapsed, I would want you to resuscitate the admission now so he can start his enrolment and make the matriculation” Mr. Okudu was trying to let him know it was a bit difficult but VOSSO would not listen. He was offered a chair but he refused it and said he only wanted my admission letter resuscitated. After marching up and down the registrar’s office for several minutes still reciting his monologue, the registrar called the admissions officer and directed that a fresh admission letter be issued to me. That was how I entered the University.

Due to my late admission, I had a bit of an initial challenge with accommodation and I was practically living with him and that was the beginning of a ritual he initiated me into. It was a ritual which started early on Sunday mornings and ended very late in the evening. I was already a prolific pianist, organist and music enthusiast and Dr. Olunloyo had started acquiring a vast library of classical music which has become a collector’s dream anywhere and in any locality. We would start the day with classical music by the greatest composers in the likes of Beethoven, Mozart, Bach, Handel, Schuman, Tchaikovsky, Chopin etc and also the works of celebrated conductors, pianists, violinists and soloists. He had the music on vinyl records in those days and also the sheet music scores of some of them. I would play some of the scores on his piano and he would give me a comprehensive lecture on every piece and the history and background of the composers including information not readily available on some of them. The sessions would be generally serviced with surplus bottles of cold beer and fried chicken. I would leave the sitting room at the end of the day with wobbly legs and go to the lecture room the following day with a hangover. That ritual lasted till the end of the first term when I realized I would have to make a choice between acquiring an external “degree” in music and entertainment in Dr. Olunloyos house or a degree in Animal Science from the University. I opted for the latter and gradually weaned myself of the odd bucolic routine but our mutual bond with music lasted till his transition. Thankfully he got a federal government appointment as the head of the National Science and Technology Development Agency and that enabled me to escape temporarily from the music/beer and chicken ritual. However, when I finished my undergraduate degree, I went to him and asked for employment in his agency. He flatly refused and commanded me to get back fully into pursuing a goal of acquiring postgraduate degrees before looking for any type of employment. He said he could employ me instantly and post me anywhere in the country but he would not as he wanted me to go back to the University. I was initially disappointed by his stance of which my father was extremely happy and contented. The oracle has spoken and he must be obeyed. I ended up with a doctorate. A few weeks after my doctorate degree he was given the governorship ticket of the NPN and I was extremely sad because many of us younger ones considered Chief Obafemi Awolowo as a mini god and the anointed savior of Nigeria and Yoruba people. Those not in the Action group were considered traitors. More so Uncle Bola Ige was an Old Boy of Ibadan Grammar school and my father’s junior in the school. I was a political neophyte at the time. In annoyance, I went to Dr. Olunloyo’s house where I met a huge number of NPN bigwigs eating and drinking and various groups were huddled together in meetings. I went upstairs where Auntie Funmilayo also served me a plate pounded yam and isapa vegetable (which was an unusual soup in Ibadan) soup with the traditional beer to complement it all. In the course of the meal. VOSO came up and saw me but before he could talk, I got up and asked him why he would commit a sacrilege by aligning against Chief Awolowo and Uncle Bola Ige. The great VOSO completely ignored the question only to simply ask why I was sweating in the room. I replied, it was due to the hot Pounded yam and the equally hot isapa vegetable soup. He nodded and said, “keep eating the pounded yam and the soup, as soon as you finish it just go and leave the politics to us”. With that he left the room! That was vintage VOSO, the man who will later award the title of Ooni of Molete to himself!

Several years later, we rekindled our Sunday afternoon ritual of music but now without the beer and chicken but we would still spend hours in his Molete library playing amid listening to the great classicals. Over a course of about 60 years, he has acquired such a huge and unmatchable library of music in Cds, DVDs and Books with an auction value running into million of dollars. A few years ago, I asked him what plans he had for the protection and preservation of the INESTIMABLE collection of books and music in his library and he told me what he had done, which I believe will help to preserve this rare library in all its glory and also in its original form. The genius in VOSO can never be matched or replicated in an ordinary mortal. It is simply impossible. He had the most historical and mathematical mindset like no one else I knew on earth. He had the rarest of books on mathematics and on music that would require a trip to the ends of the earth to find them. From books on “the mathematics of music”, to “the music of mathematics” and on the origins of algebra and the theory of numbers, he had them. He would spend hours explaining concepts that were completely alien to me about mathematics and I dared not let the genius, the deity, know I was not comprehendimg anything!
He shocked me one day when at a public lecture I was invited to deliver at the Omolewa nursery and primary school 50th anniversary, he took the microphone and announced that I am a genius of musical interpretation because I recognized what Wolfgang Mozart did even before coming into contact with his iconic works on them. This was simply because I had attempted to transpose a solo aria “Rejoice Greatly, O daughter of Zion” from Handel’s Messiah from soprano to tenor as the organ accompanist for its performance because the soprano could not achieve the high vocal notes of that piece, after many failed attempts. I was convinced that the vocal registers of west African Voices may be deeper or lower than European vocal boxes and so I considered a lower transposition a good option. However, my senior organist absolutely refused as he considered it a treasonable offence to tamper with the great Handel’s tonal arrangement. I reluctantly abandoned that experiment.

A few weeks later, during our routine Sunday ritual, Dr. Olunloyo asked us to listen to Mozart’s rearrangement of Handels’ Messiah. That was my first time of knowing that Mozart dared to rearrange the Messiah. We started to play the cds and when it got to “Rejoice greatly….” the arrangement was sung by a Tenor!!! I was enthused and out of excitement I narrated my attempts and how Mozart had proved me right. Note though, that Mozart only dared to tread because Handel was no longer alive at the time. Since then, he kept calling me a genius of musical interpretation!

But VOSO had the last word — After the oratorio, he asked me the fundamental difference between the works of Handel with other European composers and with Mozart’s works. Before I could muster an intelligible answer, He quickly emphasized that Mozart’s works were more German than any other German or European composers because his compositions were harsh just like the German language! He now proceeded to lecture me on how the tonal linguistics of the German language is the harshest in the world. His lecture would have generated a huge and robust discourse in linguistics.

I am not sure the world really knew the depth and content of Dr. Olunloyo’s brains. The same genius he had in Algebra Geometry, he possessed in Poetry, music and culture. He was the Nigerian version of the Greats, like, Albert Einstein, Leonardo da Vinci, Isaac Newton, Stephen Hawking, Nikola Tesla, etc. Truly and Truly, a star has fallen. The shining light is dimmed. Good night and rest in peace, Great Master and Genius

Prof Soji Adejumo is the Ajiroba of Ibadanland, and Asipa Olomi of Omi Adio

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Opinion

Ovation International: African Dream Globally Projected

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By Dr. Sani S. Baba

In a world where African stories were too often filtered through the lenses of poverty, conflict, and underdevelopment, one man dared to reframe the narrative. That man is Chief Dele Momodu, and his creation Ovation International Magazine became the bold lens through which Africa’s glamour, success, and brilliance could finally be seen, appreciated, and celebrated. How Momodu’s vision transformed Africa’s narrative, created opportunities in the last three decades and is still in conformity with the ever changing world remains a subject to be studied.

Founded 29 years ago in April, 1996, during Momodu’s political exile in the United Kingdom, Ovation International was born out of a simple but radical idea: Africa deserves to be seen in full color. While most Western publications chose to spotlight despair, Momodu’s mission was to showcase excellence from fashion, business, entertainment, and politics, to philanthropy and innovation. In other words, the child of circumstance as some call it, Ovation has proved that Africa is not synonymous with bad news.

Moreover, in changing the African narrative, Momodu’s vision was bigger than just glossy pages. He aimed to create a cultural revolution. Ovation became the red carpet for African stars long before global media paid attention to the continent. The magazine gave African personalities celebrities, presidents, royalty, entrepreneurs a platform to tell their own stories, in their own voice.

Through dazzling photo spreads and exclusive interviews, Ovation didn’t just report the news; it celebrated achievements, redefining what it meant to be African in a globalized world. From Accra, Ghana to Abuja, Lagos to London, Liberia, Kenya, Sierra Leone, South Africa, etc, the magazine quickly became a status symbol a staple at high profile events and elite homes.

Further more, as a pan-African vision with global impact, what set Ovation apart was its immense love for Africa, making it an African identity with international reach. Chief Dele Momodu didn’t restrict the magazine’s lens to Nigeria alone. He traveled extensively, covering events in Ghana, South Africa, Sierra Leone, Cote dIvoire, and far beyond. Ovation became the de facto platform for the African diaspora, connecting the continent to its global community in Europe, the U.S., and the Caribbean.

In terms of job creation, Ovation International Magazine has done wonders. Beyond the pages, Ovation has been a powerful engine for employment. As one of the few African-owned international lifestyle magazines, it created jobs across sectors journalism, photography, videography, fashion, makeup, event planning, printing, and logistics. Emerging talents were given a springboard to launch their careers, while professionals found a platform that respected and valued their craft.
In the early 2000s, when media digitization was still young in Africa, Ovation began pioneering multimedia storytelling, hiring tech-savvy youth for video editing, social media marketing, and digital design effectively nurturing a new generation of African media professionals.

Today, Ovation International is more than a magazine, but a legacy, a movement, and a symbol of African excellence. Chief Dele Momodu, with his relentless belief in the continent’s potential, has proven that African stories, when told with pride and power, can reshape perceptions and influence generations.
By putting African success stories on the global stage and backing them with real opportunities, Momodu didn’t just build a media empire, but a mirror in which Africa could see its true, radiant reflection.

In an age of fleeting digital fame, Ovation remains timeless because it didn’t chase trends, it made an indelible history.

Long live Ovation International Magazine, and happy 65th birthday to its founder, Chief Dele Momodu, the pride of Africa.

Dr. Sani S. Baba writes from Kano

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Opinion

President Trump’s Tariffs and the Big Bang Effect

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By Magnus Onyibe

A peek into Canadian, Mexican, Chinese, European, Japanese, and Korean media platforms reveals palpable angst, driven by strong expressions of nationalistic passion against the 47th President of the United States, Donald J. Trump, and his administration. Citizens of these countries are expressing indignation due to the ongoing trade war—especially regarding the 10% across-the-board tariff on imports from 180 countries and, in some cases, additional tariffs of up to 54% on imported vehicles and other goods into the US from around 60 nations.

The tariffs took effect on April 2, a date President Trump has dubbed Liberation Day—drawing a parallel to July 4, 1776, when the original 13 American colonies declared independence from Britain after a brutal war.

In line with America’s foundational respect for freedom of speech and association, it’s remarkable—and indeed ironic—that, unlike other nations whose media are responding with patriotic fervor, the American media have not rallied behind their president. Instead of pushing back against foreign hostility, the highly vibrant US media have joined the global chorus in criticizing President Trump’s “America First” policies. In some quarters, they are even vilifying or outright demonizing their own president.

Such is the potency of free speech in the United States—a feature perhaps best captured by the concept of American Exceptionalism.

Despite a tumbling stock market and widespread protests fueled by fears of inflation and an impending recession—as predicted by anti-Trump politicians—President Trump appears unperturbed by the tumultuous effects his tariff policies are having on US trading partners. In fact, he has threatened to raise tariffs even further if Canada and European countries attempt to collude against the US. Although this has yet to happen, China—arguably the hardest hit—has retaliated with a 34% tariff on US imports.

In my view, these developments are reshaping the global trade ecosystem. As countries seek alternative trade partners to avoid the constraints of trading with the US on Trump’s terms, they may carve out entirely new trade pathways. Thus, the net effect of President Trump’s sweeping tariff hikes—targeting both allies and rivals—can be likened to the Big Bang.

The Big Bang theory, the leading explanation for the origin and evolution of the universe, posits that the universe began as an infinitely hot and dense singularity about 13 billion years ago. According to its proponents, this singularity expanded rapidly, cooling and giving rise to subatomic particles, atoms, stars, and galaxies. The universe, they say, is still expanding—accelerated by the mysterious force known as dark energy.

President Trump’s “bang” can be seen through a similar lens: an explosive policy shift—rooted in an unconventional America First ideology—that has disrupted all previous global trade arrangements. Like a singularity, his approach is transforming the established order, replacing it with an untested but highly consequential framework. Though unproven in the modern era, it already appears to be generating seismic changes across the global economy.

Trump is leveraging tariffs as a strategy to boost job creation and repatriate manufacturing to the US. He also views them as a tool to generate revenue to reduce the national budget deficit, which stands at a staggering $36 trillion and continues to grow.

Given the global upheaval triggered by this astronomical tariff increase, it is difficult to find a better metaphor for Trump’s trade policy than the Big Bang. The ripple effects are so powerful that fear has gripped not only North and South American neighbors, but also Europeans, Asians, Arabs, and Africans—on both sides of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans.

The only country that might remain untouched or unaffected by the far-reaching Trump effect is one operating in complete autarky—such as the reclusive regime of Kim Jong Un in North Korea.

While the Big Bang theory provides a comprehensive explanation for the origins of the universe, many unanswered questions remain—such as what caused the universe to begin expanding in the first place, and what is the true nature of dark matter and dark energy.
Similarly, what explains President Trump’s determination to upend the old world order remains an enigma to his opponents. At this point, not even his staunchest devotees can convincingly argue that his motives are purely patriotic, driven by the Make America Great Again (MAGA) ideology with the primary aim of correcting trade imbalances and closing the deficit gap that has led to a massive budget shortfall.

Of course, as is typical in opposition politics, Trump’s high tariffs and efforts to reduce the size of the US government—driven by the newly created Department of Government Efficiency (DoGE) under the leadership of Elon Musk, the world’s richest man—are being framed as a gambit to cut taxes for billionaires. That narrative seems to have resonated, as Americans have taken to the streets in protest, in ways that suggest resistance to what former President Joe Biden described as an “oligarchic regime,” citing the number of billionaires in Trump’s cabinet.

The reality, however, is that Trump’s “bang” is not a one-size-fits-all solution. It affects different countries and regions in different ways.

Starting with Africa, where aid is critically needed to manage persistent social and public health challenges like HIV/AIDS, the suspension of USAID funding by President Trump is deeply concerning. USAID has been a vital source of funding for health and humanitarian initiatives, and its absence poses a significant threat. This is especially so because many African leaders have practically abdicated their responsibilities in this area, relying heavily on donor countries—led by the US—to provide for their citizens.

With USAID funding now cut off, many African countries are left scrambling to fill the gap. In Nigeria, the government has made an extra-budgetary provision of $200 million for healthcare services, while the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has injected almost $200 million into the foreign exchange (FX) market to help cushion the volatility and uncertainty resulting from the tariff hikes.

In Europe, the 25% tariff imposed on vehicles and alcoholic beverages—particularly from France and Scotland—poses a massive economic challenge. Many European economies are either already in recession or teetering on the brink. Even more alarming is the US threat to withdraw from its heavy financial commitment to NATO, coupled with demands that member nations pay up their dues. This creates a sense of vulnerability, especially as fears rise that Vladimir Putin may turn his attention to another European country after Ukraine.

From my perspective, the European Union’s support for Volodymyr Zelensky and Ukraine is less about altruism and more about self-interest—the first rule of nature. This is evidenced by the show of unity by European leaders around Zelensky after he was snubbed at the White House by President Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance. This strategic interest is also why Europe is now planning to set up a joint European military force as an alternative to NATO—an initiative already underway. But given the current economic strain on European economies, is the formation of a standing European force feaseable?

Regarding the high tariffs, Europe appears to have adopted a measured response, likely in line with the counsel of Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Director-General of the World Trade Organization (WTO).
Hence it seems to have adopted a studied approach.

The Arab world is also not left out. President Trump’s “drill, baby, drill” mantra means that the US will reduce its dependence on oil imports from countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Oman. Instead of preserving strategic oil reserves, the US will now focus on domestic drilling. Trump’s rationale appears to be that if fossil fuels are eventually being phased out due to the rise of Electric Vehicles (EVs), then it makes sense to exploit the existing oil reserves before combustion-engine vehicles become obsolete.

In any case, Trump has never embraced climate change in the way it is currently framed. The world is alarmed that he has once again pulled the US out of the Paris Climate Accord, after former President Biden had rejoined during his administration. With oil prices crashing due to the tariff shock, an OPEC strategy meeting may soon be on the horizon.

China, currently celebrated as the world’s foremost manufacturing hub and the second-largest economy, has borne the brunt of Trump’s trade war. The 54% tariff imposed on goods ranging from vehicles to washing machines has essentially locked China out of the US market. These items were previously taxed at 10–25%, but after Trump’s April 2 Rose Garden announcement, the tariff soared to 54%. In response, China has imposed a 34% tariff on US exports. That has excerbated the chaos already wracking the global economy in the past couple of days.

The rationale behind these tariffs, according to Trump, is to bring manufacturing back to the US from Mexico, Canada, China, and Europe, where it had migrated due to what he deems as unfair trade practices. His strategy is designed to reverse this trend.

By understanding how President Trump’s influence is shaping events across Western, Asian, Middle Eastern (Arab), and African regions, we can better grasp the phenomenon—The Trump Effect—that I am likening to the Big Bang. Hopefully, this will encourage a more balanced perspective and lead to negotiations rather than a tit-for-tat trade war.

One irrefutable fact is that Trump is rewriting the global trade rulebook, and he is doing so by squelching globalization—a phenomenon that began between the late 18th and early 19th centuries. Placing this into historical context, the Silk Road and the Industrial Revolution—which began in Great Britain following the invention of the steam engine and the mechanical loom—kickstarted global trade by enabling mass production for markets beyond local demand.

In the modern era, global trade received a significant boost from the establishment of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in 1971, in Davos, Switzerland. Since then, global trade has been guided by the Davos Manifesto, which champions ethical entrepreneurship, responsible governance, and the neutral ideals of Swiss diplomacy—underpinning the spirit of globalization. A formal charter for this vision was adopted in 1973 and renewed in 2020.

History shows that global trade thrives when protected—and falters when it is not. For instance, trade in silk and spices between China and Rome during the first century BC flourished when protected by powerful empires. Once those empires declined, so did the trade routes and their prosperity.

Now, as President Trump—the leader of the current global hegemon—takes a protectionist stance, it is consistent with his past. He has long used tariffs as a tool for economic leverage. Even back in 1988, in an interview with Oprah Winfrey, Trump,then a real estate mogul criticized China for what he saw as exploitation of the US economy.

Trump is not alone in this. A resurfaced video from 1996 shows Nancy Pelosi, then a Congresswoman from California, opposing a bill that would give China a special trade status. She argued against tariff exemptions for Chinese products—effectively advocating for the same policy Trump now champions.

In summary, the use of tariffs as a strategic tool in global trade has bipartisan roots in the US. What has changed is the scale and audacity of the Trump administration’s approach, which has sent shockwaves across the global economic landscape—earning it the moniker of a Big Bang moment in trade history.

So, Trump is literally echoing Pelosi’s sentiments with his current introduction of high tariffs. The only difference is that the tariff hike is not limited to China but has been extended to roughly 180 countries, with an estimated 60 nations significantly affected.

Even more interestingly, reports suggest that as recently as 2019, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders was also on record proposing the use of tariffs as a defense against unfair trade practices—an argument now forming the basis of Trump’s ongoing global tariff war, which has placed the world on edge.

Experts familiar with the history and current application of tariffs reveal that about $400 billion worth of U.S. products were tariffed during Trump’s first term. In his current second term, projections suggest that up to $1 trillion worth of goods may fall under U.S. trade tariffs.

According to estimates by economists, approximately $3.3 billion worth of imports arrive in the U.S. annually.

President Trump is convinced that his high-tariff regime will generate more wealth for the United States through increased domestic production, which would, in turn, boost employment for working-class Americans. Another key objective is to create fairness in trade between the U.S. and its trading partners, whom Trump has accused of benefiting unfairly at America’s expense.

Ultimately, President Trump aims to use the proceeds from these high tariffs to help close the $36 trillion budget deficit currently facing the world’s largest and most powerful economy.

In light of this, Mr. Peter Navarro, Trump’s trade adviser, believes that high tariffs have the potential to generate over $6 trillion for the U.S. in the short term.

In all of this, my main concern and interest ly in how Africa can benefit from the reimagining of the global socioeconomic ecosystem, as President Trump upends the old world order.

With a 14% tariff now imposed by the U.S. on Nigerian goods and 10% across most of the 54 nations continent , Nigeria’s exports to the U.S.—valued at between $5–$6 billion (with oil and gas making up over 90% and non-oil/gas exports accounting for less than 10%)—are under threat.

Even among non-oil/gas exports, the bulk comprises raw materials such as urea/fertilizer, ammonia, flower plants, and cashew nuts, which make up about 8%.

It is disappointing that value-added or processed exports from Nigeria to the U.S. are so minuscule—just 2%.

Despite this low figure, the imposition of a 14% tariff on Nigerian goods—despite the trade balance favoring the U.S.—should serve as a wake-up call for Nigeria, and indeed all of Africa, to begin adding value to their exports. If non-oil exports, facing a 10% tariff, are to be competitive in the U.S. market, they must move up the value chain.

The dominance of raw materials in Nigeria’s exports reflects the country’s continuing role as a supplier of raw materials to the industrialized nations of Europe, North America, and Asia. Among the six continents, only South America and the Arab world have yet to fully exploit Africa as a raw material source and dumping ground for finished products. So, for too long Africa has remained the weeping child as it has held the wrong end of the stick and it must make strategic and intentional efforts to change the negative narrative.
What the Trump tariffs spells in my mind is deglobalization as economic trade and investments between countries go on decline. But the global tariff war is also an opportunity for the continent to reposition herself on the global stage by taking a collective stance on how African countries can trade amongst themselves who to trade with in global south or west and even Asia based on her terms not the Berlin, Germany type of framework and agreement when she was not at the table when her resources were being shared as war spoils amongst Europeans who transformed from African slave traders into colonialists exploiting the resources of the continent.

Although, stocks have been crashing worldwide since the hike in tariffs by Trump it may be recalled that stock prices also rose sharply upon the innauguration of Trump on 20th January and has fallen therafter. Similarly, the stocks that have tanked globally in the past few days may rise again once clarity is achieved. With barely 100 days into his four (4) years tenure those projecting that President Trump and the Republican party may be punished by the electorate during mid -term elections that comes up 100 days shy of two (2) years, may be too hasty in their judgement.

That is because in politics a lot could still happen in the lifespan of Trump’s administration which is still 100 days shy of the 730 days(two years ) tenure to change course if the reciprocal high tariffs imposition on trading partners does not pan out well with high inflation wrecking the economy or unemployement rising astronomically to the point that US economy stagnates or goes into recession as being predicted by those against Trump’s unorthodox policies.

In the event that the unique approach defies the logic of economists, Trump may turnout to be the a hero of the new world order.

Magnus Onyibe, an entrepreneur, public policy analyst, author, democracy aadvocate, development strategist, alumnus of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University, Massachusetts, USA, and a former commissioner in the Delta State government, sent this piece from Lagos, Nigeria.
To continue with this conversation and more, please visit www.magnum.ng.

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