By Eric Elezuo

Those, who are of the impression that the Nafiu Bala Gombe factor is the only crisis bedeviling the major opposition party, the African Democratic Congress (ADC), should probably begin to rethink. The reasons are obvious; the cankerworm of treachery, me, me and me factor, wings of undemocratisation, and loss of focus have continued to haunt the nascently developing party, and observers are of the agreement that the process may again go the way of 2023 if the constant bickering of who takes what continue to fester.

It is noteworthy that the Supreme Court has been judicially lenient to the ADC, in its judgment regarding leadership, where the popularly advocated David Mark and Rauf Aregbesola leadership was sustained. But the judgment, much as it brought a temporary relief, did not in any way drive away the crisis that the party has continued to ‘bring upon itself’ since its elaborated second launch in July, 2025.

While Nigerians had seen the ADC as a veritable alternative, a much better option to the existing ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) with its attendant and alleged failed policies, which have subjected the Nigerian people to untold hardship from day one when the ‘subsidy is gone’ declaration was made, it has hitherto failed to reciprocate the confidence reposed on them by putting their house in order and jettison person desires fir Nigerianism.

But from every indication it’s beginning to appear that the ADC came, not unprepared, but under-prepared, creating loopholes that have energized the infiltration of elements of destruction bent on ensuring that the party is not on the ballot paper come 2027. The Nafiu Bala Gombe angle is consistently fighting to ensure that the agenda comes to pass. The ADC has however, pointed accusing fingers at the President Tinubu-led Federal Government and the APC as the brain behind the crisis, and the general muffling and muscling of the opposition, as the window of election contest continue to open wider.

But beyond the alleged hand of Tinubu in the brouhaha, there’s the in-house dispute, not just among the superweights that joined the party, but also among their supporters.

The super politicians include former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, two-terms governor of Rivers State, and two-terms Minister of Transport, Mr. Rotimi Chibike Amaechi; two-terms governor of Kano State and former Minister of Defence, Alhaji Rabiu Kwankwaso and two-terms governor of Anambra State and business man, Mr. Peter Obi.

Till date, none of these prolific politicians has agreed to step down for another, creating a situation where the only door open to the aspirants is a transparent and all-agreeable primary election to determine who flies the party’s flag. But that is not to be again as the duo of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso on Sunday ditched the party, enroute the newly formed Nigerian Democratic Congress (NDC). Observers say that Obi has an unexplained phobia for primary elections.

But observers have wondered if the opposition leaders are really interested in ousting the administration of Bola Tinubu, which they unanimously agreed has not impacted positively on Nigerians. They have dismissed the coalition as a gathering of highly ambitious politicians, whose real agenda is to grab power for themselves, otherwise they could have done everything within their power to settle for and support one individual if the intention is to actually dethrone Tinubu, and give Nigerians to good they deserve.

As part of the disagreements that have threatened to pull down the very fabrics of opposition plans, and drag the nation back to the mistakes of 2023, the existence of ego; a certain type of ego that analysts have described as ‘Big Ego’, has played a crucial roll.

From Atiku to Obi to Amaechi and to the newest entrant, Kwankwaso, none is willing to settle for the other to fly the party’s flag. Everyone of the candidates wants to be president .And much as Tinubu has been blamed for most the crises in many major political parties, it is still not known if Tinubu could be blamed for the inability of these political juggernauts to settle for a consensus candidate to wrest power from the present administration, that not a few Nigerians have condemned.

From various camps, especially the ‘Obidients’ (supporters loyal to Peter Obi), the slogan has remained it’s either Obi or nothing, a move that has made it impossible for the agreement towards consensus or primaries to be reached. The Obidients maintained that Atiku has no right to contest, and shouldn’t contest, citing excuses including that he is of northern extraction, and it’s not the turn of the North to produce a president.

However, the Atiku camp has countered the notion saying that there’s no constitutional provision to whoever should contest for the presidency at a particular time, stressing that the presidential contest is opened to all Nigerians of 40 years and above irrespective of tribe, religion or region. They therefore, wonder why the Obi supporters would insist that Atiku drops off without a legitimate primary election.

CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISION FOR PRESIDENTIAL CONTEST

According to Section 131 of the 1999 Nigerian Constitution (as amended), a person must be a citizen by birth, at least 40 years old, a member of a political party, sponsored by that party, and educated to at least School Certificate level or its equivalent.

The same section mentioned that disqualification of any aspirant would be based on allegiance to another country, previous two-term service as president, lunacy, or criminal conviction.

The Constitution did not at any section impose legitimacy on tribe, region or rotation. Atiku is eligible to stand for election.

Another angle Atiku’s detractors have tried to capitalise on is his stewardship as the Vice President.

However, a member of the Atiku, who prefers anonymity, explains that the Waziri Adamawa performed his functions as vice president creditably, and executed assignments as instructed. He added that at no time did the former sold any assets, rather he supervised privatization, which is the hallmark of development for any capitalist environment

The source said, “Sold national assets to who and as who? Was Atiku the president because as far as I know, he was the vice president and could not have acted without the consent of Mr President. Atiku never sold anything, those things were privatized and people, who wanted them, applied.”

Speaking on the most qualified of all the presidential aspirants, the source clarified that “having been a vice president for eight years, sustained credible institutions and businesses, none could compare to Atiku. He is the most senior, and most experienced”, he said

On the permutation of the likely winner of the 2027 election,  the source dismissed Kwankwaso, whose over million votes came largely from Kano State, and Peter Obi, who could not win any state in both the North East and West. He advised that Obi’s chances are slim in contrast to Atiku, who won across the five regions except Southeast.

He said, “Atiku, won election as the Governor of Adamawa State before he was selected as gor the vice president position by former President Olusegun Obasanjo, and he served for two-terms of eight years.

“Atiku, has since contested for president on the tickets of ACN, APC (primaries 2014), PDP, (2019 and 2023). He wants to be president, no doubt. That is not a man that can be hounded out of a race or intimidated by a small and vocal group.

“It is worthy of note that Peter Obi’s six million votes in the last election didn’t come strictly from the ‘Obidients’. In fact, not up to 30% came from them. The majority of the votes came from silent supporters of Obi who are members of other parties and from people not identified with any political party. Atiku can decide to step down for Obi or anyone, that is his choice to make. No one should hinge Obi’s success or failure on Atiku. He wants to be president too, and should not be intimidated, the source reiterated. 

HISTORICAL TRAJECTORY

Without mincing words, the survival of the opposition coalition depends solely on Atiku and Peter Obi. Most men must agree to support each if there must be a headway in booting Tinubu out of power. Anyway other than that is just another rehash of the 2023 scenario.

It would be recalled that Atiku and Obi formed an alliance that challenged late former President Muhammadu Buhari in 2019. While Atiku stood asthe substantive candidate, Obi operated as the running. Buhari won with a slim margin though observers believed that the election was greatly manipulated.

But in 2023, ambitions defeated expectations. While many had expected Atiku to support younger aspirants to run, but he threw his hat in the ring. It was his constitutional right. The likes of Peter Obi, who has created a picture of himself as being afraid of primaries, left the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) for the Labour Party, where he picked up presidential ticket on a platter. He believed that with the completion of the Buhari era, it was the turn of the Southeast to produce a president. Even as the duo of Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi pooled a collective total of over 12 million votes, both were still defeated by the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) Bola Tinubu.

A cross section of opinion molders have remained divided as to what would have happened if both had teamed up again as candidate and running mate. While a section said that the duo would have beaten Tinubu hands down, others believe that the massive voters would not have come out from their hiding if Obi had not been on the ballot paper. But the way it stands, and having known their electoral capabilities and capacities, and with one goal of removing Tinubu from office, one would have expected the two candidates to drop their egos and work together. But that has become a tall dream!

With the bickering, and subsequent defection of Peter Obi and Rabiu Kwankwaso, to the NDC, ostensibly to actualize the new slogan of Obi-Kwankwaso (OK), an analyst has juxtaposed the previous election in 2023, and the fast approaching one of 2027 as follows:

As the 2027 election approaches, it’s good to give a highlight of the major conditions required for any candidate to be declared winner of the election according to the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. (1) Candidates must get the majority of the votes from the entire country. (2) Candidate must get at least 25% from at least 24/36 states plus the FCT. In 2023 for example, INEC declared Bola Ahmed Tinubu the winner of the election for securing 36.7% of the total votes and 25% from 29 states. Followed by Atiku Abubakar who secured 29.9% of the votes and got 25% from 21 states. And then Peter Obi who came third with 26.1% of the total votes and 25% from 15 states. What does that mean? Tinubu was declared winner not only because of the number of votes, but also because of the 25% rule, which he secured majority from Ondo, Ekiti, Kwara, Ogun, Oyo, Niger, Kogi, Benue, Jigawa, Zamfara, Borno and Rivers. On the other hand, Atiku Abubakar won states like Osun, Yobe, Gombe, Adamawa, Katsina, Bauchi, Kaduna, Sokoto, Kebbi, Taraba, Bayelsa and Akwa-Ibom bringing it to a total of 12 states. Similarly, Peter Obi won states like Enugu, Anambra, Abia, Ebonyi, Imo, Delta, Cross-River, Edo, Lagos, FCT, Plateau and Nassarawa bringing it to a total of 12 states with none from North-West and North-East. Kwankwaso dominated Kano State with more than a million votes. Based on this highlights, who do you think will win the 2027 presidential election?

WHY PETER OBI SHOULD HAVE REMAINED WITH ATIKU AS RUNNING MATE

A lot of narratives have been peddled as to why it would been a sound political decision for Peter Obi to remain with the ADC, and seek election as running mate to Atiku Abubakar.

Many believe that Peter Obi came to limelight in 2019 courtesy of the Atiku generosity, when he was nominated as the presidential vice candidate against the wishes and to the chagrin of major political heavyweights in PDP at the time. Both made a noticeable though did not win.

Secondly, Atiku has told the public that he was only concerned with serving for only one term, and promised to support Peter Obi to take afterwards. This is highly fundamental because across the world, many politicians have effortlessly crossed over to becoming the president after serving as vice presidents.

The case of the present President of Ghana, Dr. John Dramani Mahama, readily comes.to mind. He served as vice president to John Kuffour, and took over afterwards.

There’s also Nigeria’s Goodluck Jonathan, who served as vice president to Umar Musa Yar’dua, and became president at his death, and went ahead to win another term, even when it was the proverbial turn of the North.

In the United States, Joe Biden served as vice to Barack Obama, and became president at the end of his tenure. He served for one term, and voluntarily bowed out on health grounds.

In Kenya, incumbent President Willam Ruto served loyally as vice to Uhuru Kenyatta, and is today the president of Kenya.

In Liberia, Joseph Boakai served as vice president to Ellen Johnson Sirleaf for her two-terms of 12 years (2006 – 2018) before becoming president himself.

Just as the list is endless, it is believed that a little patience by Obi can help I  removing Tinubu, and making him president in 2031.

However, appearing quite upbeat about the happenstance, a chieftain of the ADC, Chief Dele Momodu, summarized as follows during a recent interview:

“I have no fear whatsoever, though there’s a bit of agitation everywhere. If you ask most people, they would tell you, Oh, Asiwaju will rig the election. They are sure Tinubu will do this and that. He has the power of life and death and so on and so forth, but I’m not bothered. As you get older in life, you begin to understand the God factor better. I believe that whatever APC likes, let them do. When it is God’s time, he will push them out and I think, this 2027, we are closer to it than ever.

“I said APC, whether they like it or not, the whole world knows that they have failed. And now the people are thinking it is political parties that chase away government? No, it is not parties; it is the people. When the people rise up and say it was the people that chased away PDP that time, it was the people. In this case, those who will chase Tinubu and APC away are not just members of ADC. They are Nigerians who are fed up, completely fed up, who will look back at the last three or four years and ask pertinent questions like, Was my life better in 2023 than it is in 2027? Was security much better in 2023 than it is in 2027? Was electricity better? Was water better? Was infrastructure better? Was our foreign policy better? Was the quality of ministers better? When you answer all those questions, you will see that the majority of the answers will be no, no, no. And that is what will determine why people will vote them out.”

With Obi now in NDC, and Atiku still in ADC, the shape of 2027 for the opposition may not be looking good because the way it stands, the OPPOSITION IS ABOUT TO BURY HOPE AGAIN, leveraging on the infamous ‘BIG EGO’.

It is now to your tent, O’ Israel. This is the real status quo ante bellum, and every candidate is now to test his own strength in isolation.