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We Have Made Undeniable Progress, Tinubu Tells Nigerians on Second Anniversary (Full Speech)
Published
11 months agoon
By
Eric
Fellow Nigerians, as we mark the second anniversary of our administration, I salute your resilience and undaunted spirit. Two years ago, you entrusted me with the sacred responsibility to lead our nation at a time of historic challenges. Together, we have faced these headwinds with courage and determination.
The economic and general situation of the country I inherited required that we redirect the country’s affairs with a bold and new vision. I immediately implemented two necessary policies to stop our country from further drifting into the precipice. It was apparent that if the federal government and the other two tiers of government must remain viable and cater to the citizens’ welfare, we must do away with decades-long fuel subsidies and the corruption-ridden multiple foreign exchange windows. The two were no longer sustainable and have become a chokehold on our nation’s neck, strangling our nation’s future.
While our administration has implemented the reforms to restore and reinvigorate our national economy and strengthen our social fabric as a strong and united country, I must thank my fellow citizens for your unrelenting support and belief in the grand vision we share to uplift our nation and renew our collective hopes and aspirations.
We are halfway through the journey that began 24 months ago. Today, May 29, 2025, offers our administration the opportunity to share again how far we have gone and our progress in steering our country along the critical path of socio-economic development.
When we embarked on this journey, propelled by a burst of hope and abiding faith in Nigeria’s unity and progress, I made a pledge before God and fellow countrymen and women to confront Nigeria’s challenges head-on by rebuilding trust, fostering prosperity, and restoring our nation’s economic health. Today, I proudly affirm that our economic reforms are working. We are on course to building a greater, more economically stable nation.
Under our Renewed Hope Agenda, our administration pledged to tackle economic instability, improve security nationwide, reduce corruption, reform governance, and lift our people out of poverty.
While implementing the reforms necessary to strengthen our economy and deliver shared prosperity, we have remained honest by acknowledging some of the difficulties experienced by our compatriots and families. We do not take your patience for granted. I must restate that the only alternative to the reforms our administration initiated was a fiscal crisis that would have bred runaway inflation, external debt default, crippling fuel shortages, a plunging Naira, and an economy in a free-fall.
Inflation has begun to ease, with rice prices and other staples declining. The oil and gas sector is recovering; rig counts are up by over 400% in 2025 compared to 2021, and over $8 billion in new investments have been committed. We have stabilised our economy and are now better positioned for growth and prepared to withstand global shocks.
In 2025, we remain on track with our fiscal targets. Gross proceeds per barrel from crude oil are broadly aligned with our forecasts as we intensify our efforts to ramp up production. Our fiscal deficit has narrowed sharply from 5.4% of GDP in 2023 to 3.0% in 2024. We achieved this through improved revenue generation and greater transparency in government finances. In the first quarter of this year, we recorded over N6 trillion in revenue.
We have discontinued Ways & Means financing, which has been a major contributor to high and sticky inflation. The NNPC, no longer burdened by unsustainable fuel subsidies, is now a net contributor to the Federation Account. We are also achieving fuel supply security through local refining.
Our debt position is improving. While foreign exchange revaluation pushed our debt-to-GDP ratio to around 53%, our debt service-to-revenue ratio dropped from nearly 100% in 2022 to under 40% by 2024. We paid off our IMF obligations and grew our net external reserves by almost 500% from $4 billion in 2023 to over $23 billion by the end of 2024.
Thanks to our reforms, state revenue increased by over N6 trillion in 2024, ensuring that subnational governments can reduce their debt burden, meet salaries and pension obligations on a timely basis, and invest more in critical infrastructure and human capital development.
One of our administration’s most impactful achievements is our bold tax reform agenda, which is already yielding results. By the end of 2024, our tax-to-GDP ratio rose from 10% to over 13.5%, a remarkable leap in just one year. This was not by accident. It results from deliberate improvement in our tax administration and policies designed to make our tax system fairer, more efficient, and more growth-oriented.
We are eliminating the burden of multiple taxation, making it easier for small businesses to grow and join the formal economy. The tax reforms will protect low-income households and support workers by expanding their disposable income. Essential goods and services such as food, education, and healthcare will now attract 0% VAT. Rent, public transportation, and renewable energy will be fully exempted from VAT to reduce household costs further.
We are ending the era of wasteful and opaque tax waivers. Instead, we have introduced targeted and transparent incentives supporting high-impact manufacturing, technology, and agriculture sectors. These reforms are not just about revenue but about stimulating inclusive economic growth.
There is a deliberate focus on our youth, who a friendlier tax environment for digital jobs and remote work will empower. Through export incentives, Nigerian businesses will be able to compete globally. Our National Single Window project streamlines international trade, reduces delays, and enhances Nigeria’s competitiveness.
To promote fairness and accountability, we are establishing a Tax Ombudsman, an independent institution that will protect vulnerable taxpayers and ensure the system works for everyone, especially small businesses.
Most importantly, we are laying the foundation for a more sustainable future by introducing a new national fiscal policy. This strategic framework will guide our approach to fair taxation, responsible borrowing, and disciplined spending.
These reforms are designed to reduce the cost of living, promote economic justice, and build a business-friendly economy that attracts investment and supports every Nigerian. Together, we are creating a system where prosperity is shared, and no one is left behind.
We have breathed new life into the Solid Minerals sector as part of our efforts to diversify the economy. Revenue has increased phenomenally, and investors are setting up processing plants as the sector dumps the old pit-to-port policy and embraces a new value-added policy.
Over 1,000 Primary Health Centres are being revitalised nationwide. An additional 5,500 PHCs are being upgraded under our Renewed Hope Health Agenda. We are establishing Six new cancer treatment centres. Three are ready. We offer free dialysis services in pilot tertiary hospitals and subsidise the service in others. Under the Presidential Maternal Health Initiative, over 4,000 women have undergone free cesarean sections. Lastly, we have expanded Health Insurance Coverage from 16 million to 20 million within two years.
As a result of our bold and deliberate policies, the economy is growing stronger again. Real GDP rose by 4.6% in Q4 2024, with full-year growth of 3.4%. This is one of the strongest in a decade.
Without a responsive and reliable national security infrastructure that can protect lives and properties, our economy will not perform optimally, and those who seek to harm us will impair and disrupt our way of life. Our administration is committed to the security and safety of our people. For our government, protecting our people and their peaceful way of life is the utmost priority.
Since I assumed our country’s leadership, our administration has improved collaboration among security agencies, increased intelligence-driven operations, and better ensured the welfare of our armed forces and security personnel. I use this opportunity to salute the courage and everyday sacrifice of our service men and women. We may not always witness the tremendous efforts they make to keep us safe, but we benefit every day from the results of their dedication. Even if we do not thank them often enough, they willingly face danger so we can go about our lives freely and without fear.
Our military, police, and intelligence agencies are committed to always responding to emerging security threats and new challenges because it is the patriotic duty they owe a grateful nation.
Amid the new security challenges, we can report some successes. In some areas of the northwest, hitherto under the control of bandits, our gallant armed forces have restored order, reducing and eliminating threats to lives and livelihoods. With the success achieved, farmers are back tilling the land to feed us. Highways, hitherto dangerous for travellers, have become safer. Our security agencies have succeeded many times in rescuing the abducted citizens from the hands of their tormentors. I promise you, we shall remain vigilant, as I told security chiefs during the last meeting to up their game and collaborate to end this plague of evil men. Every Nigerian deserves to live without fear.
Outside of Security, we have prioritised human capital development as a central pillar of our national development strategy.
To this end, we have significantly expanded access to quality education through infrastructure investments and the student loan scheme to support indigent students in tertiary institutions. Through the Renewed Hope Health initiative, our administration has begun equipping health facilities and deploying skilled personnel to unserved areas. We are also strengthening our response to public health threats and implementing targeted social investment schemes.
Our youth empowerment initiatives include access to funds, skill development, and creating employment opportunities. Through our MSME support, we empower the next generation and bridge inequality. In our mission to empower the next generation, we have taken bold steps to place young Nigerians at the heart of national development. Nowhere is this more evident than at the National Agency for Science and Engineering Infrastructure (NASENI), where the current management is making giant strides. NASENI has embraced a digital-first approach, introduced real-time dashboards, and implemented end-to-end e-procurement through its Unified ERP System—setting a new governance benchmark for public institutions.
Through bold, high-impact programmes like Innovate Naija, Irrigate Nigeria, the Asset Restoration Programme, and the Renewable Energy and Innovation Park in Gora, NASENI drives inclusive industrialisation at scale. From assembling electric vehicles and reviving idle assets to launching Africa’s most advanced Rapid Diagnostic Kit Factory and training female drone engineers through the NASCAV programme, these initiatives are creating jobs, restoring dignity to work, and opening up a future of possibilities for our youth. This is the movement we promised—a government of action powered by the energy and innovation of young Nigerians.
Agriculture and food security are top priorities of our Renewed Hope Agenda. We have launched aggressive initiatives to boost local food production, support farmers, and stabilise food prices. We have also invested in mechanised farming by procuring thousands of tractors, other farming tools, and fertilisers.
Under the Renewed Hope Agenda, the federal government has continued with major road construction and rehabilitation projects across all geopolitical zones, from the Abuja-Kaduna-Zaria-Kano Dual Carriageway, the 9th Mile-Oturkpo-Makurdi Road, the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway, Abuja-Lokoja-Benin Road, Enugu-Onitsha Expressway, Oyo-OgbomosoRoad, Sokoto-Badagry Road, Enugu-Port Harcourt Expressway, Second Niger Bridge Access Road to Bodo-Bonny Road among hundreds of ongoing road projects across the country.
We have launched initiatives to improve electricity generation by upgrading generation and transmission infrastructure and investing in off-grid solar energy to power our homes, business premises, industries, schools and hospitals.
In the spirit of democracy and national renewal, we are preparing to welcome the world to Nigeria soon for the Motherland Festival. This landmark gathering will spotlight our rich heritage, dynamic creative industries, and the vibrant energy of our people. It will showcase Nigeria’s beauty through tourism, culture, and innovation, inviting the world to rediscover our nation.
The Nigerian diaspora plays a vital role in our national transformation. Their expertise, investment, and global perspective are key to shaping the future we seek. In recognition, the government has introduced policies like the diaspora bond and the non-resident Bank Verification Number to make it easier for Nigerians abroad to invest, engage, and contribute meaningfully to the country’s progress.
The Motherland Festival will bring together voices from across the continent and the diaspora in a decisive moment of unity and purpose, affirming that Nigeria is not only a leader in Africa but a committed global partner ready to engage, inspire, and lead.
Once again, I acknowledge the sacrifices many Nigerians have made and continue to make as we reposition our country, not just for today but for generations yet unborn. Our journey is not over, but our direction is clear. So is our resolve to tackle emerging challenges. By the Grace of God, we are confident that the worst is behind us. The real impact of our governance objectives is beginning to take hold. The future is bright, and together, we will build a stronger, more inclusive Nigeria that we can all be proud of.
Thank you all, and May God continue to bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.
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It’s Stupid to Say Only Southerner Can Be President in 2027 – Dele Momodu
Published
2 hours agoon
May 4, 2026By
Eric
By Christy Anyanwu (The Sun)
Veteran journalist and Publisher, Ovation Magazine, Chief Dele Momodu, is a former presidential aspirant and a member of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). He has been one of the consistent voices against what he terms bad policies and actions of the incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC). In this interview, he spoke on the Tinubu administration, the opposition ADC, the 2027 elections and other issues of national importance.
What are your concerns about the 2027 general election? Do you have any fear?
I have no fear whatsoever, though there’s a bit of agitation everywhere. If you ask most people, they would tell you, Oh, Asiwaju will rig the election. They are sure Tinubu will do this and that. He has the power of life and death and so on and so forth, but I’m not bothered. As you get older in life, you begin to understand the God factor better. I believe that whatever APC likes, let them do. When it is God’s time, he will push them out and I think, this 2027, we are closer to it than ever.
You are in the ADC, and your party says the challenges and troubles in the party were created by the ruling party. Could you explain that?
I said APC, whether they like it or not, the whole world knows that they have failed. And now the people are thinking it is political parties that chase away government? No, it is not parties; it is the people. When the people rise up and say it was the people that chased away PDP that time, it was the people. In this case, those who will chase Tinubu and APC away are not just members of ADC. They are Nigerians who are fed up, completely fed up, who will look back at the last three or four years and ask pertinent questions like, Was my life better in 2023 than it is in 2027? Was security much better in 2023 than it is in 2027? Was electricity better? Was water better? Was infrastructure better? Was our foreign policy better? Was the quality of ministers better? When you answer all those questions, you will see that the majority of the answers will be no, no, no. And that is what will determine why people will vote them out.
Whenever you talk about voting APC out, voting Tinubu out, many people are like, Dele Momodu was very close to Asiwaju. What actually happened?
Nothing is happening. It is nothing personal. I love Asiwaju as a person but I have always maintained that I do not like dictatorship. And that is the main issue. I wish he would just perform well, instead of wasting money up and down, chasing shadows and all that, instead of just settling down to work. If he works well, it will be palpable. Everybody would see it. And Nigerians are not expecting miracles from Asiwaju. They just want the basic necessities of life. If he works, you will see it. Go to other countries in Africa and see how they are making progress. Here, we are just wasting money. Today, it is City Boys, tomorrow, it is City Girls. The profligacy is horrendous. You asked me, is Asiwaju not my friend and brother and everything? Yes, he is. I will never deny him. He is a good man. He is a nice man. But that does not make him a good leader. He is a great politician who knows how to manoeuvre his way and everything, but that does not make him a good leader, because leadership is not about politics. Leadership is about managing people and resources. And I don’t think he has managed our resources well. That is the truth. Only a true friend will tell you the truth. Everybody goes to him because their lives depend on him. They need one thing or the other, they will tell him lies. When tomorrow comes, they will dump him. When Buhari was there, when he was in power, everybody, including Tinubu, was praising him. After he left, they started blaming him for handing over a useless government to them. That is what they will do to Asiwaju whenever he leaves. I don’t know when, but he will leave one day. And you will see the true colour of human beings then. They will say the most horrendous things about him. I have no doubt about that. That’s when you will hear that EFCC is chasing him, chasing his family, chasing everybody. Why don’t you end that rat race? Just end it. Don’t victimize anybody. How could Nasir El-Rufai have done all he did for Asiwaju and the guy today is being harassed, and they pretend they know nothing about it? It’s because he committed an offence. When they put his name among nominees for the cabinet, you know, he was supposed to be a minister. He went for screening, then, suddenly, they said he wasn’t cleared by the security people. Who is fooling who?
As the 2027 elections approach, more problems are emerging in the ADC. Some people are claiming ownership of the party. There are issues of recognition by INEC and so on. Are you people going to merge with another party or what?
Let me tell you, I’m very worried about media coverage in Nigeria, especially political coverage. Because the questions you are asking me, I believe, should not have been asked. There are more issues within APC than you have in ADC. But because APC is in power, you all tend to pamper them and focus all attention on the opposition. In my own generation, journalists were more for opposition, for the betterment of the country. But today I don’t know why. And I will now give you a reason I am saying what I am saying. APC has problems everywhere. If you go today to Benue State, they are fighting in the party. APC members are fighting all over. In fact, in Ogun State, just yesterday, they locked out Otunba Gbenga Daniel. They were having a stakeholders’ meeting or whatever they call it and they locked him out. A former governor. Is that not APC? In Lagos State, nobody can utter a whimper. In Lagos right now, nobody is secure in the party. Those who were hoping to contest, the former governor, Akin Ambode, we were hearing he wanted to come back. We were hearing that even Gbajabiamila wanted to contest. We were hearing all sorts of things. We were hearing that Alausa, Minister of Education, wanted to contest. The President just gave an instruction and, right now, nobody is able to pursue their own ambition.
In Ogun State, the Lagos style has crept in. Suddenly, the President has chosen one man for Ogun State. I have nothing against the man. He’s my friend. He’s my brother. I have nothing against him but that system is tyrannical, where one man takes every decision. They have issues. People are grumbling. People are fighting. Some people have even taken APC to court in some states. So, I dare INEC to derecognise APC leadership. Some people even took the chairman of APC to court. Have you heard anything about it? No. Every day, what I hear on television is, ‘ADC, you have too many internal problems.’ Who doesn’t have problems? In the case of ADC, one man, or, maximum, three men, from nowhere, said the party belonged to them. So, right now, in order to kill any political party in Nigeria, all it takes is to raise one disgruntled man and say he’s a faction, and journalists, too, will start addressing him as a faction. Where on earth can one man just stand up, because he’s angry, he’s disgruntled, he’s bitter, he’s enraged, and then you call him a faction, a factioner? PDP, factions. Labour Party, factions. ADC, factions. And that’s how journalists have connived, by using these descriptions and adjectives, to justify murder in Nigeria. When we all kill this democracy, history will remember all of us, because journalists are the ones who should educate everyone. When did one man become one faction in a party? And, we all promote it.
When they talk about zoning, and it’s the turn of the South, when, tell me, when in Nigeria was it written in the Constitution of Nigeria that it’s the turn of the South? Tell me, I’m asking you, when? You cannot answer. In eight years of the North, whether the President passes or not, whether we have better candidates from other regions or not, no, now the only qualification is where you come from. So, if a man fails the exam, you will promote him because he’s the only southerner in the race. He has spent four years, let him finish his remaining four years; why are we so stupid? Why are we so docile? Why are we so backward? If you don’t agree with that, then they say, one man is too old, it doesn’t matter if the President is older or not, or if he’s healthier or not, we should beg him not to contest. When did we get to that level where you discourage people from pursuing their own dreams in life? I’ve never seen anything like this.
Joe Biden was much older than Barack Obama, he served under Obama and, later, at his age, he was in his 80s, he was President of America. It’s the same thing today with Donald Trump. Trump was removed in 2020. He’s back today. Now, people say Atiku should not run, he’s old. When did age alone become a crime? Are we not all wishing to be old one day? If God has blessed you with good health, will you kill yourself? Something is wrong with us, some people are manipulating our brains and we’re all behaving like ‘mumu’. Let everybody run, that’s democracy. I don’t care who gets the ticket of ADC. I swear to God Almighty, I don’t care. But let everybody go and fight for it and then tell us your qualifications, why you think you are better than the other candidates. It’s as simple as that. It is not just about, oh, this is where I come from, oh, it is the turn of the South. It is stupidity of the highest order that we are displaying, and the whole world is so ashamed of us, that Nigeria has not gone beyond this level of ethnicity and religion.
Now that you have mentioned Atiku, it’s a known fact that your preferred candidate in ADC is Atiku…
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There’s no question about that: he’s my preferred candidate. But I don’t care if someone else might beat him. I don’t care. That’s why I’m different. I like Atiku for his credentials, for the things I have seen, for the things that I now know about him, I have followed him since when he stepped down for Chief Moshood Abiola in 1993 in Jos. I have followed him with keen interest. I don’t see any politician at his level who is able to manage his own business without living fat off Nigeria. Atiku left power in 2007. Have you heard that he controls any state in Nigeria, where he can go and take money like some people are doing in some states? These are little, little things that we should appreciate. He is not desperate, you will not find a vault in front of his house, you will not hear that he’s planning to go and rig at INEC. Why don’t we appreciate good people in Nigeria? Must we waste and sacrifice all our good people on the altar of greed, nepotism and all that? What is his offence? In 2019, Atiku gave Peter Obi a national platform. Bloggers kicked against him, they fought him. Today, some people say they are supporting Obi, abusing, attacking and insulting the man every day. I can never support that. Never!
I don’t have more than one vote but when people do what I feel is beneath us, we speak up. The same way I am complaining about Tinubu today, about the dictatorship, about everything, if I see the same thing with Atiku in the future, I will talk.
Really?
Did I not talk when Buhari’s people were misbehaving? I was one of those who supported Buhari but, within two months, I tendered a public apology. I will never support tyrannical behaviour and say, because I like Atiku, Atiku can say anything and do anything. Not me. If you ask him, he will tell you that Dele respects himself. I respect myself. I don’t follow people blindly.
Some people say you’re with Atiku because of his money…
Does Atiku have one per cent of Tinubu s money? Why do we talk this way? Go and ask Atiku, if I’m one of those scavengers who will beg Atiku. What money has he got more than the federal government, more than the state governments, more than all the governors in Nigeria? So, because of Atiku s money, that’s why I’m following Atiku? (Laughs) Oh my God!
What’s your assessment of Tinubu’s fight against corruption in Nigeria?
The only thing I’m interested in about Tinubu is the condition of the people. Whether he is fighting corruption or not, when tomorrow comes, you will see the truth. Every government comes and they say they are fighting corruption, when, at the end of the day, the majority of the fight is about witch-hunt. I am not interested, please. I don’t follow pretence and I don’t enjoy it. There’s nobody in Nigeria who does not know those who have unlimited or unrestricted access to the resources of Nigeria but they are untouchable. That’s fine.
Let’s talk about the insecurity confronting the nation. People are still dying every day. What’s your advice?
What advice can I give when all the governors are there? They just killed someone, a driver, around Edo State. Did Edo not promise to deliver three million votes to those who cannot protect lives and property? So, how do I talk about such things? Look, when we are ready, we will know what to do. We all know that we are not ready. Nigerians are not ready, especially our leaders who are desperate only to remain in power. They are not interested in anything else. How many people have you heard that Tinubu sacked in the military or in the police for incompetence?
What’s your take on Tinubu’s recent state visit to the UK?
In terms of sound and fury, it was okay. That’s what they wanted. They wanted people who would validate them and they got a willing partner in our people in England. That’s okay. Congratulations to them. But I don’t think that will change anything back home. They came back with more debts. Congratulations.
What do you mean?
Is that not what they reported? Did you not read about it?
It is said that Nigeria will gain a lot from that visit…
You can put out that you ‘think’ Nigeria will gain something. I told you they gained more debts. Is that not good news?
Culled from The Sun
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Xenophobia: Tinubu Orders Close Monitoring of Protests in South Africa
Published
3 hours agoon
May 4, 2026By
Eric
President Bola Tinubuhas directed close monitoring of the ongoing anti-foreigner protests in South Africa, as the Federal government raises concerns over the safety of Nigerians and demands justice for victims of recent incidents.
The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu, disclosed this while presenting a situation report, noting that authorities are on alert ahead of another round of demonstrations scheduled for 4 to 8 May.
“There is heightened anxiety over the series of anti-foreigner protests. The priority at this time remains the safety of our citizens,” she said, adding that the President’s directive underscores Nigeria’s resolve to prevent further harm to its nationals.
Odumegwu-Ojukwu said images circulating across media platforms showing violence and xenophobic rhetoric have drawn global condemnation, describing the trend as “utterly condemnable and unacceptable.”
She, however, acknowledged that top South African officials, including President Cyril Ramaphosa, have publicly opposed xenophobia, extra-judicial killings and destruction of foreign-owned properties.
According to her, protests held between 27 and 29 April in Pretoria and Johannesburg were largely peaceful under heavy police presence, with no confirmed attacks on Nigerians during that period.
Despite this, she revealed that two Nigerians died earlier in separate incidents involving security personnel. Amamiro Chidiebere Emmanuel succumbed to injuries allegedly sustained after being beaten by members of the South African National Defence Force in Port Elizabeth, while Nnaemeka Matthew Andrew was reported dead following an encounter with metro police, with his body later found in a Pretoria mortuary.
“These incidents are utterly condemnable and unacceptable. Nigeria demands that justice be done,” the minister stated, noting that the Nigerian High Commission is closely tracking investigations.
She further confirmed that Nigeria has summoned South Africa’s High Commissioner in Abuja over the situation, as diplomatic engagements intensify to contain the fallout.
Odumegwu-Ojukwu added that Nigerian missions in South Africa are working with local authorities to minimise risks to citizens, while arrangements are ongoing for the voluntary repatriation of those willing to return home. About 130 Nigerians have so far registered for the exercise.
She also stressed Nigeria’s historical role in supporting South Africa’s liberation struggle, warning that recurring xenophobic attacks, often linked to political tensions, must be decisively addressed.
“Nigerian lives and businesses in South Africa must not continue to be put at risk,” she said, adding that both countries are engaging through existing frameworks, including an early warning mechanism, to prevent further escalation.
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How Regional Arithmetic Favours Atiku Abubakar in 2027
Published
18 hours agoon
May 3, 2026By
Eric
By Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba
Nigeria’s 2027 presidential contest is shaping up around a potentially decisive regional dynamic, though it remains contingent on the widely speculated exit of Peter Obi from the ADC to the NDC. Should that realignment materialize, the race could feature two formidable Southern candidates, Bola Ahmed Tinubu from the South-West and Peter Obi from the South-East against a single Northern heavyweight, Atiku Abubakar from the North-East. Such a configuration would significantly reshape the electoral map and redefine the path to victory.
Drawing inspiration from the wisdom and uncommon analytical depth of the former presidential candidate Chief Dele Momodu, it is worth recalling how he accurately predicted the outcome of the 2015 Nigerian presidential election, breaking it down zone-by-zone and state-by-state with remarkable precision. His October 2014 piece, “Buhari versus Jonathan: In Search of a Mathematician,” remains a testament to strategic political forecasting. While I may not claim such mathematical exactness, I will make a clear and reasoned case that the most viable path to defeating Tinubu in 2027 lies in rallying behind Atiku Abubakar.
President Tinubu’s post-2023 strategy appears to have shifted after an early realization that his relationship with the North had weakened, with growing discontent and opposition forces he could neither easily contain nor ignore. In response, he seems to have turned decisively toward consolidating the South, strengthening ties in the South-South, engaging political actors in the South-East, and reinforcing his natural base in the South-West in a bid to secure that region as a unified stronghold. This creates the impression that the South may lean toward continuity. However, should Peter Obi contest independently, that cohesion fractures. The Southern vote would likely split between Tinubu and Obi, opening space for Atiku Abubakar to gain footholds, especially if he secures a strategic running mate from the region.
In contrast, the North presents a different and potentially decisive equation. There is a growing perception across the region that the political moment favors consolidation behind Atiku Abubakar more than ever before. Several factors are often cited in this regard. First is the belief among many Northern voters that the current administration has exhibited ethnic bias in appointments and governance. Second is the widespread perception of imbalance in policy direction and project distribution, with flagship initiatives such as the Lagos-Calabar coastal highway seen by many as disproportionately favoring the South-West. Third, the religious sentiment that played a role in the 2023 elections appears to be losing its mobilizing power, with many voters signaling a shift away from identity-based considerations toward broader governance concerns.
Additionally, persistent insecurity and underdevelopment in many parts of the North continue to shape political expectations, with many citizens prioritizing leadership they believe can directly address these challenges. Finally, Atiku’s recent positioning of 2027 as his final presidential bid, alongside renewed emphasis on his policy proposals, appears to be resonating with the significant segments of the Northern electorate. Taken together, these dynamics suggest that Atiku is strongly positioned to secure a more unified and possibly expanded Northern mandate than in previous cycles.
The implication is straightforward: a divided South versus a relatively unified North could tilt the balance. In such a scenario, Atiku’s path to victory becomes more viable, not despite Obi’s participation, but partly because of it. The 2027 election, therefore, may be less about religious alignments, as seen in 2023, and more about regional calculations.
While outcomes remain uncertain, this emerging structure suggests that the opposition’s most realistic chance against an incumbent lies in leveraging regional arithmetic effectively and in that equation, Atiku Abubakar appears strategically advantaged…
Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba writes from Kano, and can be reached via drssbaba@yahoo.com
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National4 days agoFG Declares May 1 Public Holiday to Celebrate Workers Day
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Opinion2 days agoLeadership in Africa: Forging a New Era of Self-Reliance, Unity and Global Relevance (Pt. I)
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National2 days agoUS Threatens to Withhold 50% of Aid to Nigeria over Lapses in Security, Civilian Protection and Accountability
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Headline4 days agoAttorney-General Asks Court to Deregister ADC, Accord, Three Other Parties

