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Opinion

The Oracle: How China is Re-Colonising Nigeria (Pt. 1)

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By Mike Ozekhome

INTRODUCTION

Nigeria has the largest population in Africa and one of the largest in the entire world (214.4 million people as at 18th February, 2022). Nigeria has about 374 ethnic groups (Onigu Otite) amongst its population, with over 500 languages and roughly 65% younger than 25 years. The Nigerian government runs on a democratic presidential system modeled after the American system. One of the oldest locations that showed signs of human existence with evidence dating back as far as 9000 BC, Nigeria has the potential to become one of the strongest economies in the world. Some have even tipped Nigeria to top the charts by the year 2050.

The economy has since become the largest in Africa. However and most unfortunately, Nigeria is highly dependent on revenue from a-mono-product from oil and gas, being one of the largest producers of crude oil globally. Changes have now been proposed to help diversify the economy with other industries showing significant growth opportunities being consumer goods and retail, real estate, agriculture and infrastructure.

INCENTIVES TO INVESTORS

The Nigerian government has also introduced a number of incentives to attract foreign investors. These include a favorable company income tax, Pioneer Status Grants, Free Trade Zones and tax relief for research and development. Investors can also repatriate 100% of profits and dividends, while full ownership of companies is granted in all sectors apart from oil and gas.

CHALLENGES OF DOING BUSINESS IN NIGERIA

Outside these advantages, the potential challenges of doing business in Nigeria include wide-spread corruption, cyber threat and political risk with violence, terrorism, armed banditry and ransom-oriented kidnappings. Furthermore, analysts and risk-managers cite difficult macroeconomic conditions and market volatility as other obstacles to be aware of when considering to business in this part of Africa. For these reasons, Nigeria appeared better suited to experience and establish export missions, rather than early-stage start-up companies.

THE SINO-NIGERIAN PACTS

In the light of the foregoing, Nigeria and the People’s Republic of China established formal diplomatic relations on February 10, 1971. Relations between the two nations grew closer as a result of the international isolation and Western condemnation of Nigeria’s military dictatorships (1970s-1998). Nigeria has since become an important source of oil and petroleum for China’s rapidly growing economy, while Nigeria looks up to China for help in achieving high economic growth China has since provided extensive economic, military and political support to her. Bilateral trade reached US$3 billion in 2006 – up from $384 million in 1998. During Chinese President Hu Jintao’s visit in 2006, China secured four oil drilling licences and agreed to invest $4 billion in oil and infrastructure development projects in Nigeria. Both nations agreed to a four-point plan to improve bilateral relations – a key component of which was to expand trade and investments in agriculture, telecommunications, energy and infrastructure development. Furthermore, China agreed to buy a controlling stake in the Kaduna oil refinery that would produce 110,000 barrels per day (17,000 m3/d). Nigeria also promised to give preference to Chinese oil firms for contracts for oil exploration in the Niger Delta and Chad Basin. In 2006, China also agreed to grant a loan of $1 billion to Nigeria to help it upgrade and modernize its railway networks. In 2005 Nigeria agreed to supply PetroChina with 30,000 barrels per day (4,800 m3/d) of oil for $800 million. In 2006 the CNOOC purchased a share for $2.3 billion in an oil exploration block owned by a former defence minister. China has also pledged to invest $267 million to build the Lekki free trade zone near Lagos.

CHEAP CHINA, CHEAP ARTICLES

Chief Dana Chen, Chairman China-Africa Business Council (CABC); early 2021, promised to increase the volume of trade between China and Africa from $30 billion to $300 billion. However, the “flooding” of Nigerian markets with cheap Chinese goods has become a sensitive political issue, as – combined with the importation of second-hand European products – it has adversely affected domestic industries, especially in textiles. This has led to closure of 65 textile mills and the laying-off of 150,000 textile workers across the country over the course of a decade. Nigerian militants had also threatened to attack Chinese workers and projects in the Niger Delta. In 2010, trade between the two countries was worth US$7.8 billion. In 2011, Nigeria was the 4th largest trading partner of China in Africa and in the first 8 months of 2012, it was the 3rd. Today, Nigeria with over $26 billion is the second largest trading partner to China, next only to South Africa with about $54 billion.

In April 2018, Nigeria signed a $2.4-billion currency swap deal valid for 3 year. In 2019, bilateral trades between China and Nigeria reached $19.27 billion. From 2000 to 2011, there are approximately 40 Chinese official development finance projects identified in Nigeria through various media reports. These projects range from a $2.5 billion loan for Nigerian rail, power, or telecommunications projects in 2008; to an MoU for $1 billion construction of houses and water supply in Abuja in 2009, and several rail networks.

Since 2000, trade relations have risen exponentially. There has been an increase in total trade of over 10,384 million dollars between the two nations from 2000 to 2016.

However, the structure of the Sino-Nigerian trade relationship has become a major political issue because Chinese exports accounted for around 80 percent of total bilateral trade volumes. This has resulted in a serious trade imbalance with Nigeria importing ten times more than it exports to China. Nigeria’s economy is becoming over-reliant on cheap foreign imports to sustain itself, resulting in a clear decline in Nigerian Industry under such arrangements. In September 2018, Nigeria yet again signed a $328 million loan with China to heavily boost the development of telecommunication infrastructures in Nigeria.

China has provided the financing for the following projects in Nigeria:

  • Abuja-Kaduna Railway; Abuja Metro Light Rail, Abuja and Port Harcourt Airport terminals;
  • Lekki Free Trade Zones, Ogun – Guangdong;
  • Zungeru Hydro Power Dam; and
  • University of Transportation, Daura.

In exchange, Nigeria often systematically hired a Chinese firm to oversee its development projects, such as the 3,050 MW Mambilla hydroelectric Power Station. China’s investment in Africa and by extension Nigeria, is phenomenal and has over time progressively transformed into Africa’s largest trading partner surpassing traditional partners such as Europe and the United States of America.

THE CATCH

Perhaps, not many developed countries of the world will be ready to play the big role that China is currently playing in Africa to develop infrastructural projects that will liberate the continent from the clutches of acute poverty due to a lack of basic infrastructures. Nigeria, the most populous nation in Africa is a major beneficiary of some of these initiatives through ambitious infrastructural projects that are springing up across the country. But, this at a huge cost.

In Nigeria, it is estimated that over 70 per cent of imported products are fake and substandard. The high volume of counterfeit and sub-standard products in the domestic market is threat to Nigeria’s economy, raising serious doubts on current efforts by the Federal Government to resuscitate the real sector to contribute meaningfully to Gross Domestic Product (GDP). In 2015, I went with my wife to China. We wanted to buy transformers and generators. The Chinese sellers asked us pointedly if we wanted the standard original, or the Nigerian downgraded version. We were shocked.

An estimated N15billion is believed to be lost annually to fake or counterfeit goods in terms of loss of tax revenue to the government, income to local manufacturers, and employment generation to Nigerians. In fact, it is a tragedy to report that in Nigeria, for every fast-selling genuine product circulating, counterfeiters would either pirate or produce something similar without regards for standards and specifications, especially to the health and safety of the populace.

There is virtually or hardly any product that is not either faked or its quality sub-standard when compared with the original. From the pharmaceutical to the textile; beverage, ceramics, electrical and electronics; book publishing; music and even Nigeria’s fast rising home video industry. The greatest fear nursed by genuine investors remains how best to recoup their investments and remain in business amid challenges of infrastructure and the untrammeled influx of fake counterfeit goods, counterfeiting and piracy in the country.

Counterfeiting destroys creativity, acts as a bane to the efforts of genuine manufacturers, discourages investments and entrepreneurship, as it renders their goods non-competitive. But more worrisome is the fact that sub-standard goods are inimical to the health and safety of citizens. Hundreds of Nigerians are reported to have died after consuming sub-standard drugs. The establishment of NAFDAC in 1993, was in fact government’s direct response to the high casualty rate recorded from the use of fake drugs.

There are many cases of collapsed buildings which are linked to the usage of sub-standard materials by builders. People die like chickens under such circumstances. In the road construction industry, billions of naira are invested in road construction only for them to collapse after few months of their commissioning due to use of substandard materials.

Modern infrastructure availability is one of the indicators of advancement of any society today. It is the blood that keeps any modern society and economy alive. This ranges from roads, bridges, airports, seaports, railways, power plants, dams, telecommunication facilities, etc. Indeed, the level, quality and standard of the infrastructure of a country is a core indicator of its rating in development or advancement.

One major area of the Chinese strategic relationship with Nigeria is the building of rail infrastructure as stated earlier, which is gradually positioning Nigeria as a modern economy with infrastructural underpinning. In this stead, in recent years, the China Civil Engineering Construction Company (CCECC) has delivered four major railway projects after completion, all with a total stretch of 712km. However, critics who have travelled abroad believe that qualities of the projects are highly suspect.

Take note, sometime in December 2020, one of the latest of China’s many industrial investments in Nigeria, the railway line between Lagos and Ibadan, became operational. Running 156 kilometres long and costs about $1.5 billion US dollars. Its opening was accompanied by public fanfare in Nigeria and China, where it was seen as another double victory for Chinese-led development, and China’s public image in sub-Saharan Africa. (To be continued).

FUN TIMES

“As you dey wear leg chain try rub cream for the leg this dry season make your leg no resemble stock fish we dem use rubber band tie”.

THOUGHT FOR THE WEEK

“We cannot be mere consumers of good governance, we must be participants; we must be co-creators”. (Rohini Nilekani).

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Opinion

A Vindicating Truth: A Factual Presentation on the Supreme Court’s Intervention in the ADC Leadership Matter

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By Comrade IG Wala

To All Nigerians, Party Stakeholders, and Lovers of Democracy,

In the life of every great political movement, there comes a moment where the noise of confusion meets the silence of the Law. For the African Democratic Congress (ADC), that moment arrived on April 30, 2026.

For months, the ADC was held in a state of judicial paralysis caused by a lower court order that froze the party’s activities. This order did not just affect a few leaders, it threatened to delete the ADC from the Nigerian political map and disenfranchise millions of supporters ahead of the 2027 General Elections.

Today, we present the facts of the Supreme Court’s intervention to ensure that every Nigerian, from the city centers to the grassroots, understands that Justice has spoken, and the ADC is alive.

The Three Pillars of the Supreme Court’s Ruling:

1. The End of Paralysis (The Status Quo Order)!

The Supreme Court, led by Justice Mohammed Garba, was clear and firm: the Court of Appeal’s order to maintain a “status quo” was improper and unwarranted. The apex court recognized that you cannot freeze a political party indefinitely without a trial. By setting this aside, the Supreme Court rescued the ADC from a leadership vacuum that was being used to justify de-recognition by INEC.

2. The Restoration of Administrative Legitimacy.

By nullifying the appellate court’s freeze, the Supreme Court effectively restored the David Mark-led National Working Committee to its rightful place. This means that for all official, administrative, and electoral purposes, the ADC now has a recognized head. The party is no longer a ship without a captain; the doors of the headquarters are open, and the party’s name remains firmly on the ballot.

3. The Order for a Fresh Trial on Merits.

True to the principles of fair hearing, the Supreme Court did not simply gift the party to one side. Instead, it ordered the case back to the Federal High Court for an accelerated hearing. This is a victory for the Truth. It means the court is not interested in technicalities or stopping the clock, it wants to see the evidence, read the Party Constitution, and deliver a final judgment based on the Right vs. Wrong.

Note: I will drop the 7 prayers made to Supreme Court by ADC in the comment section.

A Message to Our Members and Supporters.
To our members who have felt a sense of fear, apprehension, or a lack of confidence in the Nigerian courts, let your hearts be at peace.

It is a delusion to believe that gross injustice can simply walk through the doors of our highest courts unnoticed. This matter is currently one of the most publicized and people-centric cases in Nigeria. In such a bright spotlight, the Judiciary acts not just as a judge, but as a shield for the common man.

The Law is not a tool for the crafty, it is a searchlight for the Truth.
Inasmuch as they say the Law is blind, it sees with perfect clarity the difference between a lie and the truth, between right and wrong. The Supreme Court’s refusal to let the ADC be strangled by procedural delays is proof that the system works for those who stand on the side of justice.

Our confidence is not in personalities, but in the Process. We are returning to the Federal High Court not with fear, but with the armor of Truth.

The Handshake remains strong, the vision is clear, and our participation in the 2027 elections is now legally anchored.

Stand tall. The ADC has been tested by the fire of the courts, and we have emerged not just intact, but vindicated.

Signed,
Comrade, IG Wala.
02/04/26. — with Shareef Kamba and 14 others.

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Opinion

The Police is Your Friend and Other Lies We No Longer Believe

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By Boma Lilian Braide (Esq.)

There was a time in Nigeria when the phrase The Police is Your Friend was not a national joke. It was a civic assurance, a symbolic handshake between the state and its citizens. It represented the ideal of a civil security architecture built on trust, service, and protection. Today, that once reassuring slogan has decayed into a bitter irony. It no longer evokes safety; it provokes fear. It no longer signals partnership; it signals danger. What should have been the soul of Nigerian civil state relations has become a cruel parody of our lived experience at checkpoints, stations, and on the streets.

The Nigerian security apparatus has undergone a transformation so profound that it now resembles a predatory machine rather than a protective institution. The sight of a police patrol vehicle, which should ordinarily bring comfort, now triggers anxiety. Citizens instinctively brace themselves, not for assistance, but for extortion, harassment, or violence. We are not merely witnessing isolated incidents of misconduct. We are watching a pattern of state enabled brutality unfold in real time, a pattern so consistent that it feels like a televised execution of the social contract. In this grim theatre, the Nigerian state often appears not as the protector but as the principal aggressor.

On Sunday, April 26th 2026, the quiet air of Effurun in Delta State was shattered by the crack of a service pistol. What should have been an ordinary Sunday afternoon became the final chapter in the life of twenty-eight year old Mene Ogidi. A viral video, barely two minutes long, captured the horrifying scene. Ogidi sat on the dusty ground, his hands tied behind him with a rope. He was unarmed, exhausted, and pleading in his mother tongue for a chance to explain himself. Standing over him was a man in plain clothes, a man sworn to protect the very life he was about to extinguish. Assistant Superintendent of Police Nuhu Usman raised his pistol and fired two shots at close range into the body of a restrained, helpless citizen.

This was not a confrontation. It was not a crossfire. It was not a struggle for a weapon. It was an execution. A daylight assassination carried out by a state paid officer who felt so insulated by impunity that he performed his violence in front of a digital audience. The collective outrage that followed was not simply about one death. It was the eruption of a nation that has watched this script repeat itself far too many times.

Barely days later, in Dei-Dei Abuja, another life was cut short. A National Youth Service Corps member was shot inside his father’s compound. Authorities described it as a mistake during a crossfire, but the silence that followed spoke louder than any official explanation. These tragedies are not anomalies. They are symptoms of a deep institutional rot, a rot that has turned the badge into a license for violence rather than a symbol of service.

Extrajudicial killings in Nigeria represent a direct assault on the fundamental right to life and the presumption of innocence. When a law enforcement officer assumes the roles of accuser, judge, and executioner, the very foundation of the state begins to crumble. In the case of Mene Ogidi, the Delta State Police Command admitted that the officer acted in gross violation of Force Order 237, the regulation governing the use of firearms. This admission is significant because it reveals that the problem is not the absence of rules. The problem is the collapse of discipline, the erosion of accountability, and the entrenchment of a culture of impunity.

Between 2020 and 2025, Nigerian security agencies were implicated in nearly six hundred violent incidents against civilians, resulting in more than eight hundred deaths. The Nigeria Police Force accounted for over half of these fatalities. These numbers paint a disturbing picture. The institutions funded by taxpayers to provide security have become one of the greatest threats to their safety.

The psychology behind this brutality is rooted in the absence of consequences. When officers believe that nothing will happen after they pull the trigger, the threshold for using lethal force drops to zero. In the Effurun case, reports suggest that the suspect was even transported to a station after the initial shooting, only to be shot again. This level of cruelty reflects a complete dehumanization of the citizenry. The victim is no longer seen as a person with rights. He becomes a disposable suspect. This mindset is a legacy of the defunct SARS unit, whose methods and mentality continue to shape policing culture. Rebranding SARS into SWAT or the Rapid Response Squad means nothing if the same men, trained in the same violent ethos, continue to operate with the same predatory instincts.

The Nigerian police system has evolved from a flawed institution into what many citizens now describe as a state sponsored cartel. The Zero Tolerance mantra often repeated by the Inspector General of Police, Olatunji Disu, has become a public relations slogan that evaporates at every checkpoint. The immediate dismissal and recommended prosecution of ASP Usman and his team may satisfy the public’s immediate hunger for justice, but it does not address the deeper institutional vacuum that allowed an officer to believe he could execute a restrained suspect without consequence. If accountability only occurs when a video goes viral, then we are not being policed. We are being hunted by a uniformed gang that is occasionally caught on camera.

This raises critical questions. Where were the superior officers? Where was the Area Commander while this culture of execution was taking root? Command responsibility in Nigeria remains a myth. Until a Commissioner of Police is removed for the actions of their subordinates, there will be no internal incentive to reform. The decay is structural. We are recruiting frustrated individuals, training them in aggression rather than professionalism, and unleashing them on a population they are conditioned to view with suspicion and contempt.

The mistake narrative used in the Abuja NYSC shooting reflects this tactical incompetence. A professional force does not mistake a youth corper in his bedroom for a combatant. Nigerians are effectively subsidising their own endangerment, paying for the bullets that cut down their brightest young citizens. A nation cannot survive this level of uniformed recklessness. The state has lost its monopoly on violence to its own agents. When police officers fear the citizen’s camera more than they respect the citizen’s life, the system has failed.

Five years after the historic 2020 End SARS protests, the systemic reforms promised by government remain largely unfulfilled. Only a handful of states have implemented the recommendations of the judicial panels or compensated victims. The National Human Rights Commission reported in July 2025 that it had received over three hundred thousand complaints of abuses. This staggering figure reflects the scale of the crisis. While the current Inspector General has introduced new regulations to align the Police Act of 2020 with operational realities, the gap between a gazetted document in Abuja and a patrol team in Delta remains vast.

The solution to this bloodletting must be radical and structural. First, police oversight must be decentralised. Relying on Force Headquarters in Abuja to discipline an officer in a remote community is inefficient and ineffective. Each state should have an independent, citizen led oversight board with the authority to recommend immediate suspension and prosecution without interference from the police hierarchy.

Second, Force Order 237 must be overhauled to strictly limit the use of firearms to situations where there is an immediate and verifiable threat to life. Under no circumstances should a restrained or surrendering suspect be shot.

Third, Nigeria must address the mental health and welfare of police officers. Men who live in dilapidated barracks, earn inadequate wages, and operate under constant stress are more likely to lash out at the public. However, poverty cannot be an excuse for murder. Welfare reform must go hand in hand with strict accountability.

Finally, justice must not only be done but must be seen to be done. The trial of ASP Usman and others like him should be public, transparent, and swift. It must serve as a deterrent that resonates in every police station across the country. The era of secret disciplinary rooms must end. Nigeria must invest in technology driven policing, not only in weapons but in body cameras and digital accountability systems. When officers know they are being recorded, hesitation replaces recklessness.

A NATIONAL CALL TO ACTION

The era of Orderly Room secrecy must end. Nigeria must decentralise police disciplinary trials, moving them from closed sessions in Abuja to open, civilian led inquiries in the states where the abuses occur. A National Firearms Audit is urgently needed. Every officer must account for every round issued, and any missing ammunition should trigger automatic suspension for the entire chain of command.

The National Assembly must fast track the Victims of Police Brutality Trust Fund, ensuring that compensation becomes a legal right funded directly from the budgets of offending commands. Nigeria must stop being a nation of post script outrage. Command responsibility must become law. If an officer under a Commissioner’s watch executes a handcuffed suspect, that Commissioner must lose their job alongside the shooter.

The blood of Mene Ogidi and the NYSC member in Dei Dei is a stain on our national conscience. It is a reminder that as long as one Nigerian can be tied up and shot without trial, no Nigerian is truly safe. Silence is no longer an option. Waiting for the next viral video is no longer acceptable. The time to demand change is now.

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Opinion

Kwankwaso-Obi Anti-Coalition Alliance and the Perception of the North

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By Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba

Let’s not sugarcoat it, what is unfolding is not just political maneuvering for 2027, but a carefully calculated roadmap to 2031. Anyone who believes Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is acting out of patriotism or prioritizing Nigeria above his personal ambition is simply ignoring the pattern before us. His willingness to deputise Peter Obi is not born out of ideological alignment or national interest, it appears to be a strategic move aimed at one target weakening Atiku Abubakar and ensuring he does not emerge as president in 2027.

Kwankwaso’s real calculation seems anchored in 2031. He understands that as long as Atiku remains active and contesting, his own presidential ambition struggles to gain traction, especially in the North where Atiku’s influence remains deeply rooted. By positioning himself in a way that could undermine Atiku now, he potentially clears the path for himself later, when he can conveniently lean on the “it is the turn of the North” narrative with stronger moral leverage. This is not about helping Obi win, it is about ensuring Atiku is completely removed from the equation.

It is also important to state plainly that Kwankwaso is fully aware of his electoral limitations in this arrangement. He knows he cannot significantly attract Northern votes for Obi beyond a few pockets, even within Kano State. And even there, the good people of Kano are far more politically aware and discerning than to be swayed purely by sentiment. This makes the entire proposition even more questionable, if the electoral value is limited, then the intention behind the alliance becomes even clearer. It suggests that even if he joins an Obi ticket, it is not driven by a genuine commitment to Obi, the Igbo, the South-East or Nigeria but by a broader personal calculation.

Northerners must understand that this is a long game, and every move appears deliberately designed. Kwankwaso seems cautious not to overtly confirm growing suspicions that he is working, directly or indirectly, to the advantage of Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Yet, many are beginning to connect the dots. The belief that there is an underlying alignment is gaining ground, especially when actions repeatedly result in one outcome, a divided North that weakens its collective electoral strength, a repeatation of 2023 in a different style. The alignment of Kwankwaso’s political godson and the governor of Kano Abba Kabir Yusuf with Tinubu only fuels this perception, suggesting a dual-front approach: one operating directly and visibly, the other indirectly and subtly.

This is not the first time such a pattern is being observed. Many Northerners still recall similar dynamics from 2023, and recent developments have only intensified the conversation. In fact, within just the last 24 hours, the level of criticism and open dissatisfaction directed at Kwankwaso across Northern Nigeria has been unprecedented. What was once dismissed as mere suspicion of a quiet alliance is now, in the eyes of many, being confirmed by actions seen as disruptive to any meaningful coalition.

For Kwankwaso, this moment carries significant weight. The long-circulating “sellout” label, which many had hesitated to firmly attach, now appears to be finding a resting place in public discourse. Should he once again position himself outside a collective Northern arrangement, that perception may become permanently entrenched.

The implications for the North are serious. Voting Obi because of Kwankwaso, which is unlikely, could fracture an already consolidated political base, reduce its bargaining power, and ultimately produce outcomes that do not reflect its true strength. The North has never historically rejected a dominant figure like Atiku in favor of a subordinate position, nor has it embraced a configuration where its most established candidate is sidelined. The idea that the region would choose Kwankwaso as a deputy while overlooking Atiku as a president is not just improbable, it runs contrary to established Northern political behavior.

What is at stake goes beyond individual ambition. The North is fully conscious of the stakes and increasingly resolute in its direction. There is a growing determination to stand firmly behind its own Atiku Abubakar, to protect its collective political strength, and to resist any arrangement that appears designed to divide it. The signals are clear, the North has decided, and it will not fall into what many perceive as calculated traps, whether from Kwankwaso or from forces seen as working against its cohesion and democratic leverage….

Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba writes from Kano, and can be reached via drssbaba@yahoo.com

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