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…Elections Will Test Nigeria’s Democracy…What The Economist Said of Nigeria’s 2015 Election

Published

5 years ago

February 23, 2019

Eric

The national and state elections due to begin in Nigeria on March 28th are likely to be the closest and most fiercely contested since the restoration of democracy in Africa’s most populous nation in 1999. There is a lack of confidence in the poll organisers, concern about the volatile environment in which voting will take place and anxiety about the undemocratic and belligerent tendencies of Nigerian politicians. It is virtually impossible to envisage an outcome to the election period that does not involve significant instability. Although we think Nigeria will just about negotiate the election period without a complete breakdown in security, there is a real possibility that the instability will be serious enough to break Nigeria’s democracy, or even split the country apart.

The run-up to the vote has been intense with provocative campaigning by politicians in both the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the main opposition, the All Progressives Congress (APC). Cause for concern has also come from the poor preparation by the Independent National Election Commission (INEC) for the crucial polls, which has undermined public confidence in the state agency’s ability to conduct smooth and fair voting in presidential and National Assembly polls on March 28th, followed by governorship and state assembly ballots on April 11th. A six-week postponement of the elections, announced a week before the original February 14th start date, stemmed from security concerns, particularly the Islamist insurgency in the north-east, and also INEC’s failure to distribute sufficient numbers of electoral cards to voters on time. The unease and apprehension has also affected the financial markets where share prices have been subdued and the Nigerian currency, the naira, has taken a battering as investors feel nervous about the impact of the ensuing power struggle on the stability of Africa’s largest economy.

Election-related instability is not a new phenomenon

Pre-elections jitters are not new in Nigeria. Virtually every major election in the country since independence from the UK in 1960 was preceded by some level of political turmoil, often owing to grandstanding by rent-seeking politicians. Furthermore, the nation’s electoral agency has on most voting occasions shown an incredible lack of preparedness, which in 2011 resulted in a week-long postponement of the polls, announced on the day voting was supposed to start. In addition, the aftermath of every major election has featured allegations of rigging and fraud, as well as some violence, which led to military coups in 1966 and 1983; and rioting that cost hundreds of lives in 2011.

Despite the drama and mayhem that have accompanied the four general elections held so far under the Fourth Republic, this current period of civilian governance has survived and arguably become more resilient and adept at weathering political storms. Indeed, this 15-year-old civilian republic has lasted longer than the preceding spell of army rule, although overall Nigeria has still been under military rule for more years than it has enjoyed democracy.

The stakes are higher than usual

Nonetheless, a number of factors make this year’s elections riskier than previous ones. This is the first time that the ruling party, which has won every presidential vote since 1999, faces an opposition that has broad support and reasonable prospects of victory. PDP candidates easily won past presidential contests, largely because they faced challengers who lacked broad support across Nigeria’s diverse ethnic and regional groupings. However, a former military ruler, Muhammadu Buhari, the candidate of the APC making his fourth consecutive attempt at the presidency, should this time benefit from the wider support of a party created in 2013 from a merger of three main opposition parties, with the prime purpose of wresting power from the PDP. Mr Buhari, a northern Muslim, took 32% of the overall vote in 2011, sweeping the largely Muslim north-west and north-east but performing poorly in the predominately Christian south. On March 28th the 72‑year‑old retired general is likely to do well in the south-west, a stronghold of one of the parties that make-up the APC, and do better in parts of the south-east. As for the 57‑year‑old president, Goodluck Jonathan, a southern Christian who won 59% of the 2011 vote, he is likely to once again get the support of his kinsmen in the oil-producing south and probably maintain strong performances in the south-east and in the ethnically mixed north-central zones. However, it is unclear to what extent the emergence of the APC alliance will erode his support in south-west, where in the past many voters have opted for opposition candidates in state elections while casting for the ruling party in the presidential ballot.

As with the 2011 elections, the 2015 polls are taking place against the background of the insurgency of Boko Haram, a Sunni Islamist fundamentalist group seeking to carve out an Islamic state in northern Nigeria. But the group has become stronger and poses a greater threat to democracy than it did four years ago. The mayhem it has caused in the north-east, including capturing several towns and villages, has raised doubts about the possibility of holding free elections in the worst-affected parts of the north-east. Since the postponement of the polls in mid-February, the Nigerian military, with the assistance of troops from Niger, Cameroon and Chad, have pushed to retake most of the territories under the militants’ control. Nonetheless, the security situation in the region remains precarious, with militants probably still able to strike with guerrilla attacks during the elections and to exacerbate any post-election violence in the country.

Neither side will willingly concede defeat

The flipside of concerns about Boko Haram and fears of a repeat of rioting in the north if Mr Buhari loses on March 28th is worry about a resurgence of ethnic nationalist militancy in the oil-producing Niger Delta if Mr Jonathan is defeated. Militants, who waged armed struggles for local control of mineral resources up until 2009, have threatened to resume their insurgency in the event of a Buhari presidency. Threats made by hardliners on both sides of the political divide to unleash catastrophe if their side loses is probably mostly sabre rattling that has come to be associated with election seasons in Nigeria. Nonetheless, the stakes are high. If Mr Buhari suffers a fourth presidential election defeat, he will probably not get another chance to achieve his ambition of returning to power through the ballot box. The retired general’s supporters will be less likely to accept defeat graciously if, as widely expected, the results of his latest bid for power are close, even if the courts back the PDP victory. On the other hand, if Mr Jonathan is defeated, Nigeria may enter uncharted territory, in which the ruling party, still in control of the state security apparatus, disputes the outcome of the presidential election.

There is not a feasible scenario in which Nigeria avoids significant post-election unrest. The question is over the magnitude of that unrest. Nigeria has shown a high threshold for remaining intact through previous periods of significant instability and this will probably remain true this time. However, the risk of a more substantial breakdown—precipitating a period of ungovernability, a coup or even civil war—are the highest of any time since the return to civilian rule in 1999.

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British-Nigerian, 14, Killed in Knife Attack in UK

Published

2 hours ago

May 1, 2024

Eric

UK police named a 14-year-old boy killed in a sword attack in London this week as Daniel Anjorin, as officers released more details about how the violent rampage unfolded.

Anjorin, a British-Nigerian pupil attended Bancroft’s private school in Woodford Green – also attended by Nottingham attack victim Grace O’Malley-Kumar.

He died on Tuesday morning as he walked to school in Hainault, in the east of Britain’s capital, when he was attacked by a man wielding what appeared to be a Samurai-type sword.

Police tasered and arrested the suspect, a 36-year-old man who remains in custody on suspicion of murder. He has not been named and was not previously known to police.

The independent school attended by Anjorin said in a statement Wednesday that they had been left in “profound shock and sorrow” at the pupil’s death.

“He was a true scholar, demonstrating commendable dedication to his academic pursuits. His positive nature and gentle character will leave a lasting impact on us,” Bancroft’s, in Woodford Green, near Hainault, said.

London’s Metropolitan Police force said Tuesday’s horror unfolded just before 7:00 am (0600 GMT) when the accused crashed a van into a house fence, hitting a 33-year-old man before stabbing him in the neck.

A 35-year-old man was then attacked inside a nearby property, causing lacerations to his arm, before Anjorin was killed.

Police arrived on the scene 12 minutes after the first emergency call and attempted to neutralise the suspect with incapacitant spray and a Taser gun but these had little effect.

The suspect seriously injured two police officers, both of whom required surgery on Tuesday and remain in hospital.

One, a woman, suffered severe injuries to her arm and nearly lost a hand, the Met said.

The man fled again as terrified witnesses took cover in houses before police used a Taser to overpower him, detaining him 22 minutes after the initial call.

Police have said the attack was not terror-related.

It came amid a rise in stabbings in the United Kingdom and shortly before voters decide whether to re-elect London mayor Sadiq Khan for a record third term in local elections Thursday.

Conservative Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has criticised the opposition Labour Party’s Khan for his record on crime.

Anjorin’s death is the second recent tragedy to hit Bancroft’s, after a former pupil, Grace O’Malley-Kumar, was killed in Nottingham last year as she tried to save her friend from a knife attacker.

Valdo Calocane was sentenced to indefinite detention in a psychiatric hospital for stabbing to death 19-year-old O’Malley-Kumar, fellow student Barnaby Webber and 65-year-old school caretaker Ian Coates.

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Adebogun Commends Tinubu over Rehabilitation of Ikorodu-Imota-Itoikin-Epe Road

Published

4 hours ago

May 1, 2024

Eric

Renowned educationist, and Proprietor/Chief Executive Officer, Caleb Group of Schools, Dr. Oladega Adebogun, has commended President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, for speedy and comprehensive rehabilitation of the Ikorodu-Imota-Itoikin-Epe Road, which formerly ranked as one of the worst in Nigeria, and had been albatross to past administrations.

A statement signed by the Director, Public Relations, Caleb University, Imota, Mr. Abimbola Olulesi, and made available to this medium, noted that Adebogun gave his commendation during an interactive session with the media, affirming that President Tinubu, by his singular action, has renewed the hope of residents, motorists and commuters, who had lost hope that the road will ever be repaired, considering its total deplorable state.

He recollected that the Ikorodu-Imota-Itoikin-Epe road, before the rehabilitation, ranked among the worst roads not just in Lagos State but across the country.

“The road usually gets abandoned during the rainy season, and had posed a recurring nightmare to motorists and commuters along the Ikorodu through Imota to Itoikin axis, and as far as Epe. It was a particularly harrowing experience for road users during vacation and festive periods,” Adebogun said.

The Proprietor joyfully noted that it was a huge sigh of relief for residents when the rehabilitation was completed in March this year, reducing Ikorodu to Epe travel time from about two hours to less than thirty minutes.

He added that the rehabilitation of the road is a positive pointer and attestation to the fact that many more development projects promised by the people-oriented, focused and egalitarian government of President Tinubu would be completed and delivered.

Adebogun also commended the Honourable Minister of Works, His Excellency, Dr. Dave Umahi, the Executive Governor of Lagos State, His Excellency Babajide Sanwo-Olu and the Senator representing Lagos East Senatorial District, Senator Adetokunbo Abiru for the various roles they played in the actualization of the rehabilitation of Ikorodu-Imota road.

He recalled that Governor Sanwo-Olu had personally visited to access the deplorable condition of the road early this year while Senator Abiru had moved a motion in 2021 on the floor of the Nigerian Senate on, “The Urgent Need for the Rehabilitation of the the Ikorodu-Sagamu and Ikorodu-Itoikin-Epe Roads to further bridge the Infrastructure Gap and Enhance Economic Growth in Nigeria”.

Senator Abiru also has to his credit many laudable achievements which earned him the appellation of “Doing Good Senator” such as: The Senator Abiru Innovation Lab(SAIL), which is “the first of its kind innovation hub” in Lagos East Senatorial District which he set up for young people and entrepreneurs; N300 Million Naira Constituency Intervention Revolving Loan, Health facilities and construction of blocks of classrooms he facilitated across the district, provision of grant to 1,250 market women, award of bursary to 600 higher institution students and monthly support for over 2500 vulnerable constituents. Others include provision of many transformers across Lagos East Senatorial District, building of Epe Sports Complex as well as sponsorship of many legislation and motions of national significance.

Adebogun also remarked that, in less than one year of assuming office, President Tinubu had performed beyond expectation and deserves the goodwill and support of all Nigerians to actualise all aspects of the Renewed Hope Agenda.

He further paid tributes to President Tinubu for the promise announced by the Honourable Minister of Works, Dr. Dave Umahi, that the dualization of the Ikorodu-Imota-Itoikin-Epe Road would commence in earnest as the second phase of the road repair project.

He therefore appealed to all well-meaning Nigerians to put aside mundane differences and join hands with the government for the full realization of the Renewed Hope Agenda of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

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No Such Deals Exist, Maersk Debunks $600m Investment Agreement with Nigeria

Published

1 day ago

April 30, 2024

Eric

A report from Lloyd’s List has debunked the statement of the President Bola Tinubu-led Federal Government that Maersk has concluded and signed an agreement for a $600 million into the port sector.

The paper’s report reads:

A $600m investment into Nigeria’s port sector from Maersk, announced personally by the West African state’s president Bola Tinubu on Sunday, appears to be less solid than the government initially claimed.

Despite a presidential statement from Tinubu detailing how he had secured the purported investment during a World Economic Forum meeting in Riyadh over the weekend, Maersk officials have confirmed that no such agreement is in place and no deals have been signed.

The Nigerian government statement detailed how A.P Moller-Maersk chairman Robert Maersk Uggla had discussed the investment with president Tinubu on the sidelines of a meeting discussing energy development and growth. The statement even included a direct quote attributed to Uggla saying: “We believe in Nigeria, and we will invest $600 million in existing facilities and make the ports accommodating for bigger ships”.

But according to Maersk, that deal does not exist.

Company officials said while Uggla did meet the president, no such deal had been signed.

“Maersk has been present in Nigeria for 35 years and, as a global provider of logistics services, we remain committed to develop opportunities for growth to people, the port sector and businesses locally,” the company said in a statement to Lloyd’s List.

“Therefore, it is natural to have an ongoing dialogue with the administration. However, we are not able to comment on any investment talks.”

Maersk is due to report first-quarter results on Thursday, meaning that management are in a regulatory quiet period limiting what they can say publicly about the company’s activities.

Nigeria has promised to revamp its ports, including in the commercial capital Lagos, to ease congestion.

Tinubu’s statement explained that his government would support the modernisation and automation of its ports to improve trade, reduce corruption and boost efficiency. He claimed that the purported Maersk investment would “complement the administration’s ongoing $1bn investment in seaport reconstruction across the eastern and western seaports of Nigeria”.

“A bet on Nigeria is a winning bet. It is also a bet that rewards beyond what is obtainable elsewhere,” he said. “We need to encourage more opportunities for revenue expansion and minimise trans-shipments from larger ships to smaller ships.”