Opinion
Why Investing in People Outperforms Every Resource on Earth
Published
2 months agoon
By
Eric
By Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD
“The truest measure of a nation’s riches lies not in the depths of its mines or the breadth of its fields, but in the minds, hearts, and hands of its people—created in divine image, called to steward creation, and destined to multiply possibilities through faithful cultivation and wise leadership.” – Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD
In an era defined by finite natural resources, rapid technological change, and global interdependence, a profound truth resonates across philosophy, faith, economics, and management: the greatest wealth is not buried beneath the earth in minerals, oil, or soil, but stands upon it in the form of human beings. This perspective challenges the traditional fixation on extractive riches and redirects attention to the living, creative, and relational capacity of people. Far from a poetic sentiment, it represents a divinely ordained reality, empirically validated across nations, and strategically indispensable for unlocking possibilities at every level of human endeavor—among individuals and communities (peoples), within corporations, and across entire nations.
This comprehensive examination draws upon timeless biblical revelation, rigorous empirical data from global institutions such as the World Bank and the Institute for Economics and Peace, and established principles from strategic management theory to demonstrate that humans constitute the ultimate resource. As stewards created in the image of God, people possess inherent dignity, creativity, and dominion that no mineral deposit or fossil fuel can replicate. Investing in human potential—through education, health, skills, and ethical empowerment—yields exponential returns that transcend material extraction and deliver sustainable prosperity, innovation, and resilience.
Biblical Foundations: Humans as God’s Image-Bearers and Vicegerents
The scriptural narrative establishes human beings as the pinnacle of creation and the greatest earthly asset long before modern economics articulated the concept. In Genesis 1:26–28, God declares, “Let us make man in our image, after our likeness. And let them have dominion over the fish of the sea and over the birds of the heavens and over the livestock and over all the earth and over every creeping thing that creeps on the earth.” This declaration is not incidental; it links the imago Dei—the image of God—with the mandate of dominion. Humans are entrusted with responsible stewardship over creation precisely because they reflect divine attributes: rationality, creativity, relationality, moral agency, and purposeful productivity.
This truth is echoed in Psalm 8:4–6, where the psalmist marvels, “What is man that you are mindful of him, and the son of man that you care for him? Yet you have made him a little lower than the heavenly beings and crowned him with glory and honor. You have given him dominion over the works of your hands.” Humanity’s crowning with glory underscores intrinsic worth that far surpasses any natural resource. Unlike oil reserves that deplete or mineral veins that exhaust, human potential compounds through generations when nurtured.
The New Testament reinforces this dignity. Jesus’ teachings, such as the Parable of the Talents in Matthew 25:14–30, portray God as entrusting resources to servants for multiplication through faithful stewardship—symbolizing the investment in human capacity rather than hoarding material wealth. The apostle Paul further affirms in Colossians 3:10 that believers are renewed “in knowledge after the image of its creator,” emphasizing ongoing development of the mind and spirit. These passages collectively reveal that God ordained humans—not the ground beneath them—as the primary vehicle for realizing creation’s possibilities. Dominion is exercised not through exploitation but through creative cultivation, innovation, and relational justice, making every person a living repository of divine potential.
Empirical Evidence: Human Capital as the Driver of Productivity and National Prosperity
Contemporary data unequivocally validate this ancient insight. The World Bank’s Human Capital Index Plus (HCI+) 2026 report provides compelling global evidence that human development accounts for up to two-thirds of cross-country income differences. The index measures the expected productivity of a child born today based on health, education, and employment outcomes extending to age 65. Striking disparities emerge: GDP per hour worked in the world’s ten most productive countries exceeds that of the ten least productive nations by more than thirty times. These gaps stem not primarily from natural resource endowments but from deficits in nutrition, learning, and workforce skills.
The report reveals sobering realities: 86 out of 129 low- and middle-income countries experienced stagnation or regression in key human capital components between 2010 and 2025. Deficits in these areas are projected to cost children born today approximately half of their potential future earnings. Conversely, countries that prioritize human investment outperform expectations relative to their GDP per capita. High relative performers include Vietnam, India, Malaysia, Jamaica, Kenya, and the Kyrgyz Republic—nations that have leveraged education, health, and skills to drive growth despite modest natural resources.
This pattern refutes the “resource curse” documented in seminal studies, such as Jeffrey Sachs and Andrew Warner’s 1997 analysis, which found that economies heavily dependent on natural resource exports in 1970 grew more slowly over subsequent decades. In contrast, resource-scarce yet human-rich nations have achieved remarkable transformations. South Korea’s economic miracle from 1960 to 1979 was propelled by massive investments in education and productivity rather than physical capital alone. Human capital and total factor productivity explained growth per worker comparably to physical investments, enabling the country to rise from post-war poverty to global industrial leadership without significant mineral wealth.
Singapore offers an equally compelling case. With virtually no natural resources, it achieved a 2023 Human Development Index of 0.946 (ranking among the world’s highest) through deliberate policies in education, healthcare, and skills development. Its transformation from a trading port to a knowledge-based economy illustrates how human ingenuity creates value where raw materials cannot. Japan and Israel similarly demonstrate resilience: Japan rebuilt after World War II through human capital intensity, while Israel—often called the “Start-Up Nation”—thrives on innovation ecosystems fueled by educated citizens despite arid land and limited conventional resources.
Longitudinal cross-country analyses, including Robert Barro’s 1991 study on economic growth, consistently show that higher human capital (measured by schooling and health) correlates with elevated investment rates, lower fertility (enabling demographic dividends), and sustained GDP growth. These empirical patterns confirm that humans are not merely consumers of resources but creators who multiply value exponentially.
Professional Management and Strategic Evidence: Humans as the VRIO Source of Competitive Advantage
Strategic management theory elevates this empirical reality into actionable frameworks. Gary Becker’s pioneering Human Capital (1964, expanded 1975 and 1993) treated education, training, and health as investments analogous to physical capital. Becker demonstrated that such investments yield measurable returns in earnings, productivity, and national growth—explaining the “residual” in economic models that physical capital and labor alone could not account for. Organizations and societies that systematically enhance human capabilities realize compounding advantages.
Peter Drucker, the father of modern management, famously observed in the late 20th century that “the most valuable assets of a 20th-century company were its production equipment. The most valuable asset of a 21st-century institution… will be its knowledge workers and their productivity.” Drucker foresaw the shift to a knowledge economy where human intellect, creativity, and adaptability become the decisive factors. In today’s context of artificial intelligence and digital transformation, this insight has only intensified: technology amplifies human potential but cannot replace the judgment, innovation, and relational intelligence that define knowledge work.
The Resource-Based View (RBV) of the firm, formalized by Jay Barney in his 1991 seminal paper “Firm Resources and Sustained Competitive Advantage,” provides the strategic capstone. According to RBV, resources deliver sustained advantage when they are Valuable, Rare, Inimitable, and Organized (VRIO). Human capital frequently satisfies all four criteria: it is valuable for generating economic rents; rare in its unique combinations of skills and experience; difficult to imitate due to path-dependent development and tacit knowledge; and organizable through culture, leadership, and systems. Empirical assessments of RBV confirm that firms prioritizing talent development outperform peers reliant on tangible assets. Companies such as Microsoft under Satya Nadella or Google (Alphabet) have achieved market dominance not through superior physical infrastructure but through relentless investment in attracting, developing, and retaining exceptional human talent.
Indispensable Roles: Delivering Possibilities Across Peoples, Corporations, and Nations
At the level of peoples (individuals and communities), humans as the greatest resource translate divine image-bearing into personal agency and collective uplift. Education and health investments empower individuals to exercise dominion creatively—innovating solutions, building families, and fostering communities. Empirical returns are clear: each additional year of schooling can increase individual earnings by 8–10 percent globally, while healthy populations contribute to demographic dividends that accelerate societal progress.
In corporations, strategic human capital management drives innovation, adaptability, and stakeholder value. Talent-centric organizations cultivate cultures of continuous learning, psychological safety, and ethical purpose. They outperform asset-heavy competitors by leveraging knowledge workers to navigate disruption, as evidenced in Deloitte’s 2026 Global Human Capital Trends, which highlight that competitive advantage increasingly depends on human-edge scaling amid AI proliferation. Corporations that treat employees as investments rather than costs achieve higher engagement, retention, and long-term profitability.
For nations, human resource development constitutes the foundation of sovereignty, resilience, and inclusive growth. Policies that prioritize universal health, quality education, and lifelong skills—aligned with the World Bank’s HCI+ recommendations—reduce inequality, mitigate shocks (from pandemics to climate events), and position countries for participation in the global knowledge economy. Nations ignoring this reality risk stagnation, while those embracing it, as Singapore and South Korea have, convert human potential into geopolitical influence and shared prosperity.
Relevance to All-Round Leadership and Global/National Security: Empirical Foundations and Strategic Imperatives
The recognition of humans as the greatest wealth extends profoundly into the realm of all-round leadership and security, where human capital emerges as the indispensable foundation for holistic governance, resilience, and sustainable peace. All-round leadership—integrating self-mastery, visionary foresight, relational wisdom, strategic execution, team alignment, and ethical integrity—cannot flourish in isolation from a well-nurtured populace. Biblical leadership models, such as Nehemiah’s reconstruction of Jerusalem’s walls (Nehemiah 4–6), illustrate this synergy: wise, prayerful, and inclusive leadership combined with empowered citizens to restore both physical and spiritual security. Proverbs 29:18 reinforces the principle: “Where there is no vision, the people perish,” underscoring that visionary leaders depend on developed human potential to translate ideals into enduring stability.
Empirically, the Institute for Economics and Peace’s Global Peace Index 2025 and its Positive Peace framework provide robust international-standard evidence. Positive Peace comprises eight interconnected pillars that build resilience and prevent conflict, one of which is explicitly “High Levels of Human Capital.” This pillar—centered on education, skills, and health—shows one of the strongest positive correlations with overall peacefulness, well-functioning government, low corruption, and equitable resource distribution. Countries ranking high on the Human Capital Index consistently occupy the top positions in the Global Peace Index: Iceland, New Zealand, and the Nordic nations demonstrate how sustained investment in people generates not only economic vitality but also societal cohesion and institutional trust that underpin national security.
In contrast, nations trapped in the resource curse—rich in minerals yet deficient in human capital—exhibit heightened insecurity, including internal conflict, governance fragility, and vulnerability to external shocks. The IEP data reveal that improvements in human capital are among the most powerful predictors of sustained Positive Peace, enabling societies to absorb geopolitical, cyber, or environmental disruptions without descending into violence. The World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026 and Global Cybersecurity Outlook 2026 further corroborate this: human talent gaps exacerbate cyber vulnerabilities, supply-chain fragility, and leadership deficits in crisis response. Organizations and nations with robust human capital pipelines, by contrast, exhibit superior resilience through adaptive leadership and collective intelligence.
Strategically, all-round leadership thrives when human resources are cultivated as the primary asset. Harvard Business Impact’s 2025 Global Leadership Development Study highlights that organizations prioritizing human capital development produce leaders who excel in navigating volatility, fostering innovation, and upholding ethical standards—precisely the qualities required for 21st-century security challenges. At the national level, this translates into comprehensive security: not merely military defense but human security encompassing economic stability, food sovereignty, cyber defense, and social harmony. Singapore’s transformation and Israel’s innovation-driven defense ecosystem exemplify how human-centered strategies convert potential vulnerability into strategic strength. Investing in people thus becomes both a divine mandate and a pragmatic security imperative, creating resilient leaders and societies capable of stewarding peace amid uncertainty.
Conclusion: A Divine and Strategic Imperative for Investment
The greatest wealth is indeed not in the ground but on the ground—embodied in every human life created in God’s image. Biblical revelation affirms this dignity and dominion; empirical data from the World Bank’s HCI+ 2026, the Institute for Economics and Peace’s Global Peace Index 2025, and decades of econometric research demonstrate its productivity, leadership, and security dividends; and strategic frameworks from Becker, Drucker, and Barney prove its competitive necessity. Across individuals, corporations, nations, leadership, and security architectures, humans deliver possibilities that no extractive industry can match: innovation that solves intractable problems, relationships that build trust and cohesion, visionary governance that prevents conflict, and stewardship that sustains creation for future generations.
The call to action is both spiritual and pragmatic: invest sacrificially in people through education, healthcare, ethical leadership development, inclusive opportunity, and Positive Peace-building initiatives. In doing so, societies honor their Creator, unlock exponential value, fulfill the dominion mandate responsibly, and fortify all-round leadership and security in an interdependent world. In a world tempted by short-term extraction, the timeless truth endures—true riches walk upon the ground, bearing the image of God and the potential to transform everything they touch. Nations, organizations, and communities that recognize and cultivate this reality will not merely survive but flourish, leaving legacies of abundance, wise leadership, and enduring peace for generations yet to come.
Dr. Tolulope A. Adegoke, AMBP-UN is a globally recognized scholar-practitioner and thought leader at the nexus of security, governance, and strategic leadership. His mission is dedicated to advancing ethical governance, strategic human capital development, and resilient nation-building, and global peace. He can be reached via: tolulopeadegoke01@gmail.com, globalstageimpacts@gmail.com
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Opinion
A Vindicating Truth: A Factual Presentation on the Supreme Court’s Intervention in the ADC Leadership Matter
Published
3 days agoon
May 4, 2026By
Eric
By Comrade IG Wala
To All Nigerians, Party Stakeholders, and Lovers of Democracy,
In the life of every great political movement, there comes a moment where the noise of confusion meets the silence of the Law. For the African Democratic Congress (ADC), that moment arrived on April 30, 2026.
For months, the ADC was held in a state of judicial paralysis caused by a lower court order that froze the party’s activities. This order did not just affect a few leaders, it threatened to delete the ADC from the Nigerian political map and disenfranchise millions of supporters ahead of the 2027 General Elections.
Today, we present the facts of the Supreme Court’s intervention to ensure that every Nigerian, from the city centers to the grassroots, understands that Justice has spoken, and the ADC is alive.
The Three Pillars of the Supreme Court’s Ruling:
1. The End of Paralysis (The Status Quo Order)!
The Supreme Court, led by Justice Mohammed Garba, was clear and firm: the Court of Appeal’s order to maintain a “status quo” was improper and unwarranted. The apex court recognized that you cannot freeze a political party indefinitely without a trial. By setting this aside, the Supreme Court rescued the ADC from a leadership vacuum that was being used to justify de-recognition by INEC.
2. The Restoration of Administrative Legitimacy.
By nullifying the appellate court’s freeze, the Supreme Court effectively restored the David Mark-led National Working Committee to its rightful place. This means that for all official, administrative, and electoral purposes, the ADC now has a recognized head. The party is no longer a ship without a captain; the doors of the headquarters are open, and the party’s name remains firmly on the ballot.
3. The Order for a Fresh Trial on Merits.
True to the principles of fair hearing, the Supreme Court did not simply gift the party to one side. Instead, it ordered the case back to the Federal High Court for an accelerated hearing. This is a victory for the Truth. It means the court is not interested in technicalities or stopping the clock, it wants to see the evidence, read the Party Constitution, and deliver a final judgment based on the Right vs. Wrong.
Note: I will drop the 7 prayers made to Supreme Court by ADC in the comment section.
A Message to Our Members and Supporters.
To our members who have felt a sense of fear, apprehension, or a lack of confidence in the Nigerian courts, let your hearts be at peace.
It is a delusion to believe that gross injustice can simply walk through the doors of our highest courts unnoticed. This matter is currently one of the most publicized and people-centric cases in Nigeria. In such a bright spotlight, the Judiciary acts not just as a judge, but as a shield for the common man.
The Law is not a tool for the crafty, it is a searchlight for the Truth.
Inasmuch as they say the Law is blind, it sees with perfect clarity the difference between a lie and the truth, between right and wrong. The Supreme Court’s refusal to let the ADC be strangled by procedural delays is proof that the system works for those who stand on the side of justice.
Our confidence is not in personalities, but in the Process. We are returning to the Federal High Court not with fear, but with the armor of Truth.
The Handshake remains strong, the vision is clear, and our participation in the 2027 elections is now legally anchored.
Stand tall. The ADC has been tested by the fire of the courts, and we have emerged not just intact, but vindicated.
Signed,
Comrade, IG Wala.
02/04/26. — with Shareef Kamba and 14 others.
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Opinion
The Police is Your Friend and Other Lies We No Longer Believe
Published
3 days agoon
May 4, 2026By
Eric
By Boma Lilian Braide (Esq.)
There was a time in Nigeria when the phrase The Police is Your Friend was not a national joke. It was a civic assurance, a symbolic handshake between the state and its citizens. It represented the ideal of a civil security architecture built on trust, service, and protection. Today, that once reassuring slogan has decayed into a bitter irony. It no longer evokes safety; it provokes fear. It no longer signals partnership; it signals danger. What should have been the soul of Nigerian civil state relations has become a cruel parody of our lived experience at checkpoints, stations, and on the streets.
The Nigerian security apparatus has undergone a transformation so profound that it now resembles a predatory machine rather than a protective institution. The sight of a police patrol vehicle, which should ordinarily bring comfort, now triggers anxiety. Citizens instinctively brace themselves, not for assistance, but for extortion, harassment, or violence. We are not merely witnessing isolated incidents of misconduct. We are watching a pattern of state enabled brutality unfold in real time, a pattern so consistent that it feels like a televised execution of the social contract. In this grim theatre, the Nigerian state often appears not as the protector but as the principal aggressor.
On Sunday, April 26th 2026, the quiet air of Effurun in Delta State was shattered by the crack of a service pistol. What should have been an ordinary Sunday afternoon became the final chapter in the life of twenty-eight year old Mene Ogidi. A viral video, barely two minutes long, captured the horrifying scene. Ogidi sat on the dusty ground, his hands tied behind him with a rope. He was unarmed, exhausted, and pleading in his mother tongue for a chance to explain himself. Standing over him was a man in plain clothes, a man sworn to protect the very life he was about to extinguish. Assistant Superintendent of Police Nuhu Usman raised his pistol and fired two shots at close range into the body of a restrained, helpless citizen.
This was not a confrontation. It was not a crossfire. It was not a struggle for a weapon. It was an execution. A daylight assassination carried out by a state paid officer who felt so insulated by impunity that he performed his violence in front of a digital audience. The collective outrage that followed was not simply about one death. It was the eruption of a nation that has watched this script repeat itself far too many times.
Barely days later, in Dei-Dei Abuja, another life was cut short. A National Youth Service Corps member was shot inside his father’s compound. Authorities described it as a mistake during a crossfire, but the silence that followed spoke louder than any official explanation. These tragedies are not anomalies. They are symptoms of a deep institutional rot, a rot that has turned the badge into a license for violence rather than a symbol of service.
Extrajudicial killings in Nigeria represent a direct assault on the fundamental right to life and the presumption of innocence. When a law enforcement officer assumes the roles of accuser, judge, and executioner, the very foundation of the state begins to crumble. In the case of Mene Ogidi, the Delta State Police Command admitted that the officer acted in gross violation of Force Order 237, the regulation governing the use of firearms. This admission is significant because it reveals that the problem is not the absence of rules. The problem is the collapse of discipline, the erosion of accountability, and the entrenchment of a culture of impunity.
Between 2020 and 2025, Nigerian security agencies were implicated in nearly six hundred violent incidents against civilians, resulting in more than eight hundred deaths. The Nigeria Police Force accounted for over half of these fatalities. These numbers paint a disturbing picture. The institutions funded by taxpayers to provide security have become one of the greatest threats to their safety.
The psychology behind this brutality is rooted in the absence of consequences. When officers believe that nothing will happen after they pull the trigger, the threshold for using lethal force drops to zero. In the Effurun case, reports suggest that the suspect was even transported to a station after the initial shooting, only to be shot again. This level of cruelty reflects a complete dehumanization of the citizenry. The victim is no longer seen as a person with rights. He becomes a disposable suspect. This mindset is a legacy of the defunct SARS unit, whose methods and mentality continue to shape policing culture. Rebranding SARS into SWAT or the Rapid Response Squad means nothing if the same men, trained in the same violent ethos, continue to operate with the same predatory instincts.
The Nigerian police system has evolved from a flawed institution into what many citizens now describe as a state sponsored cartel. The Zero Tolerance mantra often repeated by the Inspector General of Police, Olatunji Disu, has become a public relations slogan that evaporates at every checkpoint. The immediate dismissal and recommended prosecution of ASP Usman and his team may satisfy the public’s immediate hunger for justice, but it does not address the deeper institutional vacuum that allowed an officer to believe he could execute a restrained suspect without consequence. If accountability only occurs when a video goes viral, then we are not being policed. We are being hunted by a uniformed gang that is occasionally caught on camera.
This raises critical questions. Where were the superior officers? Where was the Area Commander while this culture of execution was taking root? Command responsibility in Nigeria remains a myth. Until a Commissioner of Police is removed for the actions of their subordinates, there will be no internal incentive to reform. The decay is structural. We are recruiting frustrated individuals, training them in aggression rather than professionalism, and unleashing them on a population they are conditioned to view with suspicion and contempt.
The mistake narrative used in the Abuja NYSC shooting reflects this tactical incompetence. A professional force does not mistake a youth corper in his bedroom for a combatant. Nigerians are effectively subsidising their own endangerment, paying for the bullets that cut down their brightest young citizens. A nation cannot survive this level of uniformed recklessness. The state has lost its monopoly on violence to its own agents. When police officers fear the citizen’s camera more than they respect the citizen’s life, the system has failed.
Five years after the historic 2020 End SARS protests, the systemic reforms promised by government remain largely unfulfilled. Only a handful of states have implemented the recommendations of the judicial panels or compensated victims. The National Human Rights Commission reported in July 2025 that it had received over three hundred thousand complaints of abuses. This staggering figure reflects the scale of the crisis. While the current Inspector General has introduced new regulations to align the Police Act of 2020 with operational realities, the gap between a gazetted document in Abuja and a patrol team in Delta remains vast.
The solution to this bloodletting must be radical and structural. First, police oversight must be decentralised. Relying on Force Headquarters in Abuja to discipline an officer in a remote community is inefficient and ineffective. Each state should have an independent, citizen led oversight board with the authority to recommend immediate suspension and prosecution without interference from the police hierarchy.
Second, Force Order 237 must be overhauled to strictly limit the use of firearms to situations where there is an immediate and verifiable threat to life. Under no circumstances should a restrained or surrendering suspect be shot.
Third, Nigeria must address the mental health and welfare of police officers. Men who live in dilapidated barracks, earn inadequate wages, and operate under constant stress are more likely to lash out at the public. However, poverty cannot be an excuse for murder. Welfare reform must go hand in hand with strict accountability.
Finally, justice must not only be done but must be seen to be done. The trial of ASP Usman and others like him should be public, transparent, and swift. It must serve as a deterrent that resonates in every police station across the country. The era of secret disciplinary rooms must end. Nigeria must invest in technology driven policing, not only in weapons but in body cameras and digital accountability systems. When officers know they are being recorded, hesitation replaces recklessness.
A NATIONAL CALL TO ACTION
The era of Orderly Room secrecy must end. Nigeria must decentralise police disciplinary trials, moving them from closed sessions in Abuja to open, civilian led inquiries in the states where the abuses occur. A National Firearms Audit is urgently needed. Every officer must account for every round issued, and any missing ammunition should trigger automatic suspension for the entire chain of command.
The National Assembly must fast track the Victims of Police Brutality Trust Fund, ensuring that compensation becomes a legal right funded directly from the budgets of offending commands. Nigeria must stop being a nation of post script outrage. Command responsibility must become law. If an officer under a Commissioner’s watch executes a handcuffed suspect, that Commissioner must lose their job alongside the shooter.
The blood of Mene Ogidi and the NYSC member in Dei Dei is a stain on our national conscience. It is a reminder that as long as one Nigerian can be tied up and shot without trial, no Nigerian is truly safe. Silence is no longer an option. Waiting for the next viral video is no longer acceptable. The time to demand change is now.
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Opinion
Kwankwaso-Obi Anti-Coalition Alliance and the Perception of the North
Published
4 days agoon
May 3, 2026By
Eric
By Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba
Let’s not sugarcoat it, what is unfolding is not just political maneuvering for 2027, but a carefully calculated roadmap to 2031. Anyone who believes Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is acting out of patriotism or prioritizing Nigeria above his personal ambition is simply ignoring the pattern before us. His willingness to deputise Peter Obi is not born out of ideological alignment or national interest, it appears to be a strategic move aimed at one target weakening Atiku Abubakar and ensuring he does not emerge as president in 2027.
Kwankwaso’s real calculation seems anchored in 2031. He understands that as long as Atiku remains active and contesting, his own presidential ambition struggles to gain traction, especially in the North where Atiku’s influence remains deeply rooted. By positioning himself in a way that could undermine Atiku now, he potentially clears the path for himself later, when he can conveniently lean on the “it is the turn of the North” narrative with stronger moral leverage. This is not about helping Obi win, it is about ensuring Atiku is completely removed from the equation.
It is also important to state plainly that Kwankwaso is fully aware of his electoral limitations in this arrangement. He knows he cannot significantly attract Northern votes for Obi beyond a few pockets, even within Kano State. And even there, the good people of Kano are far more politically aware and discerning than to be swayed purely by sentiment. This makes the entire proposition even more questionable, if the electoral value is limited, then the intention behind the alliance becomes even clearer. It suggests that even if he joins an Obi ticket, it is not driven by a genuine commitment to Obi, the Igbo, the South-East or Nigeria but by a broader personal calculation.
Northerners must understand that this is a long game, and every move appears deliberately designed. Kwankwaso seems cautious not to overtly confirm growing suspicions that he is working, directly or indirectly, to the advantage of Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Yet, many are beginning to connect the dots. The belief that there is an underlying alignment is gaining ground, especially when actions repeatedly result in one outcome, a divided North that weakens its collective electoral strength, a repeatation of 2023 in a different style. The alignment of Kwankwaso’s political godson and the governor of Kano Abba Kabir Yusuf with Tinubu only fuels this perception, suggesting a dual-front approach: one operating directly and visibly, the other indirectly and subtly.
This is not the first time such a pattern is being observed. Many Northerners still recall similar dynamics from 2023, and recent developments have only intensified the conversation. In fact, within just the last 24 hours, the level of criticism and open dissatisfaction directed at Kwankwaso across Northern Nigeria has been unprecedented. What was once dismissed as mere suspicion of a quiet alliance is now, in the eyes of many, being confirmed by actions seen as disruptive to any meaningful coalition.
For Kwankwaso, this moment carries significant weight. The long-circulating “sellout” label, which many had hesitated to firmly attach, now appears to be finding a resting place in public discourse. Should he once again position himself outside a collective Northern arrangement, that perception may become permanently entrenched.
The implications for the North are serious. Voting Obi because of Kwankwaso, which is unlikely, could fracture an already consolidated political base, reduce its bargaining power, and ultimately produce outcomes that do not reflect its true strength. The North has never historically rejected a dominant figure like Atiku in favor of a subordinate position, nor has it embraced a configuration where its most established candidate is sidelined. The idea that the region would choose Kwankwaso as a deputy while overlooking Atiku as a president is not just improbable, it runs contrary to established Northern political behavior.
What is at stake goes beyond individual ambition. The North is fully conscious of the stakes and increasingly resolute in its direction. There is a growing determination to stand firmly behind its own Atiku Abubakar, to protect its collective political strength, and to resist any arrangement that appears designed to divide it. The signals are clear, the North has decided, and it will not fall into what many perceive as calculated traps, whether from Kwankwaso or from forces seen as working against its cohesion and democratic leverage….
Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba writes from Kano, and can be reached via drssbaba@yahoo.com
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