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Tinubu, Nigeria is Sinking and Streets are Full of Tears

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By Farooq A. Kperogi

The searing torment that everyday folks are going through in Nigeria right now is so dire, so unbearably extreme, and so unexampled in its rawness that even diasporan Nigerians like me who live tens of thousands of miles away from home can feel it not just vicariously but also experientially.

The unending streams of requests for help to meet the most basic obligations of life that we get from previously proud, resourceful, and self-sufficient family members, friends, acquaintances, and even strangers are the conduits through which we have experiential encounters with the ongoing cost-of-living turmoil in the country.

The lower classes are sinking deeper into soul-depressing depths of poverty, despair, and hopelessness, and the middle class is so hobbled by the economic crunch that it is disappearing faster than soap bubbles. The lower and the middle classes are now united by a common sensation of emptiness, agony, and anxiety for the future.

Every day is worse, less hopeful, and more precarious than the previous day for most Nigerians. Even hope, which French philosopher François de La Rochefoucauld assured us is the last thing that dies in humans, is desperately going into a death spiral. That’s an ominous signal President Bola Ahmed Tinubu would do well to not take lightly.

Nigeria is famous for its superabundant supply of self-regenerating hope even in the midst of the most nerve-racking existential strain. You know you’re dealing with a potentially explosive social rupture when hope is grasping for breath among people who are famed for feasting on hope.

The current state of affairs isn’t unavoidable. It’s the predictable consequence of the pigheaded pursuit of a ruinous policy of subsidy removal from petrol, the lifeblood of Nigeria. I sounded an early warning about this a month before Tinubu was inaugurated.

In my April 29, 2023 column titled “Six Agenda Items for Tinubu’s Success,” I specifically warned Tinubu to resist the neoliberal anti-subsidy seduction of Western financial institutions, which they have successfully brainwashed Nigerian economists and civil society members into not just accepting but also aggressively evangelizing.

I wrote: “I know that there is now an artfully manufactured consent, particularly among the gilded classes in Nigeria, about the undesirability of ‘fuel subsidy.’ I don’t care what it’s called, but any policy (call it deregulation, subsidy removal, appropriate pricing, etc.) that results in an arbitrary and unbearable hike in the price of petrol without a corresponding increase in the salaries of workers and an improvement in the living conditions of everyday people will sink Tinubu.”

I concluded: “I can assure Tinubu that if petrol price hikes deepen people’s misery, he’ll have a tough time governing.”

The dramatic spikes we have seen in abductions for ransom all over the country are attributable to the rising tide of unheard-of deprivation that the removal of petrol subsidies has activated. And that’s just one auxiliary after-effect of the removal of petrol subsidies without a cushion or an alternative.

Other after-effects are the total collapse of the informal sector and what remained of Nigeria’s manufacturing sector. It also instigated the unprecedentedly hyper-inflationary pressures that are being exerted on the economy. Prices of basic goods and services and even of medications for common illnesses are now beyond the reach of people. That’s an unsustainable magnitude of agony.

But it was always obvious to anyone with even a halfway functioning brain that removing petrol subsidies in a weak, oil-producing economy that is organically petrol dependent, that has no well-developed public transportation system, that has weak infrastructures, and that is the poverty capital of the world would trigger infernal anguish on the vast majority of the people and tank the economy to the ground.

These are not birth pangs. They are not the pains before the gains. There is no light at the end of the tunnel. The tunnel is condemned to unrelieved darkness. The blight Nigerians are contending with now is the certain and inevitable result of a conscienceless implementation of disconnected and irrelevant economic policies inspired from outside Nigeria.

I came of age during General Ibrahim Babangida’s regime. IBB started the so-called structural adjustment programs (removal of subsidies, devaluation of the naira, mass retrenchment, etc.), which inaugurated Nigeria’s descent into the abyss. I heard the exact same things the current government is spouting during IBB’s time: that it would get worse before it got better, that after the birth pangs a big bouncing baby would be born, that there was delayed gratification awaiting us if only we could be a little more patient.

None of the promises materialized. Instead, suffering was elevated to crushing heights. Advanced fee fraud (also called 419) blossomed. Corruption was fertilized. Brain drain to the West got wings. This period also unleashed the naira’s irrecoverable slide into the deep hole of worthlessness.

Decades after, the same SAP about which hundreds of books and articles have been written and whose irreversible damage we continually lament, has been artfully repackaged, disguised, deodorized, and huckstered by a well-oiled gang of soulless apes who deployed all manner of clever rhetorical trickery to coax Nigerians into consenting to their own self-incineration.

The idea that petrol subsidies had to go because they were riddled with corruption and that they consumed a disproportionate share of our national budget is a mere propagandistic cop-out. If petrol subsidy administration is rid of corruption (that is perpetrated in cahoots with the government, which explains why no “subsidy thief” has ever been apprehended much less brought to justice), it would consume no greater share of our national budget than any governmental obligation.

It certainly won’t be anywhere near the colossal venality that is perpetuated at the Federal Ministry of Humanitarian Affairs, Disaster Management and Social Development under the guise of giving money to the poor.

The truth is that we have no original, independent thinkers among people who make or influence economic policies in Nigeria. They are all hopelessly mindless parrots of ill-comprehended economic prescriptions of the Bretton Woods institutions. They do not have the cognitive and intellectual sophistication to transcend what I call derivative or regurgitative knowledge.

There is not a single example of a country in the world that has developed on the basis of the prescriptions of the World Bank and the IMF. On the contrary, the only countries that have achieved inclusive growth and development outside the West are precisely the countries that have bucked the World Bank and the IMF. And every country that uncritically adopts the recommendations of these institutions has been wracked by utter devastation.

Unfortunately, if either Atiku Abubakar or Peter Obi were president today, Nigeria would experience exactly what it is going through now. Like Tinubu, Atiku and Obi said they would remove petrol subsidies “on day one.” When you remove petrol subsidies “on day one” in a desperately poor, inordinately petrol-supported economy with no public transportation, you get what Nigerians are going through now. It’s not rocket science.

Similarly, both Atiku and Obi said they would float the naira and let its fate be determined by the vagaries of demand and supply. When you do that in an import-dependent economy, you can’t escape what the naira is going through now.

Atiku tweeted in March 2021—and in several policy documents—that “Nigeria must move towards a single exchange rate to be determined by market forces.”

On April 9, 2022, Obi also tweeted: “The truth is that for long market forces have not determined the exchange rate of the Naira…. It has to end. Let the exchange rate be determined by the forces of demand and supply. It’s that simple.”

In other words, Tinubu is doing exactly what Atiku and Obi had proposed they would do, and the results would have been the same. The hyperinflation and hurt Nigerians are going through now won’t have been evaded because it is Atiku or Obi who removed petrol subsidies “from day one.” The naira’s glide to the bottom wouldn’t have been avoided because Atiku or Obi “floated” the naira.

That is why Atiku- or Obi-supporting critics of Tinubu come across as ignorant partisans who have drunk the Kool-Aid of their cult leaders. Atiku and Obi supporters should be grateful that their idols are not president today. They would have been bearing the reputational brunt of the boneheaded, discredited rightwing economic policies they also advocated, which have thrown Nigeria into the current mess.

Interestingly, in response to Obi’s 2022 tweet rhapsodizing over the imperative of subjecting the naira to the “forces of demand and supply,” a supporter of his by the name of Abel (with the handle @governance9ja) wrote a riposte, which has turned out to be prescient. He wrote: “So @PeterObi will float the currency for a country where most factor inputs into local manufacturing is imported? We already have cost push inflation reducing real income of many Nigerians. Floating naira will ruin many households. @PeterObi and @OfficialABAT are two of a kind.”

Obi supporters who have wet dreams of a Nirvana if Obi were president should wake up. His economic policies are exactly like Tinubu’s. Personalities aren’t the issue; policies are.

Tinubu and his team need to face the reality confronting them and change course. I know that Nigeria has been so polluted by neoliberal propaganda that even news that the government was paying subsidies through the backdoor to stop petrol prices from getting to N1,000 per liter was seized upon by the opposition to poohpooh the government, which compelled the government to deny paying any subsidies.

I’ve never seen this level of self-crushing inanity in my life. Assistance to the needy (which is what subsidy literally means) is now a dirty word that everyone avoids like the plague.

But the government should know that even hope is dying in Nigeria. When a usually hopeful nation spawns armies of hopeless and angry people through thoughtless economic policies dictated by outsiders, it sows and nurtures the seeds of its self-destruction.

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Opinion

Leadership in Africa: Forging a New Era of Self-Reliance, Unity and Global Relevance (Pt. I)

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By Tolulope A. Adegoke

“The destiny of Africa will not be determined by the strength of its resources, but by the quality of its leadership — leaders who see beyond personal power to build a continent where every African can rise, contribute, and thrive on the global stage.” — Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD

Leadership in Africa is not merely about occupying high office; it is a sacred responsibility to restore dignity, unlock potential, and chart a bold path toward collective prosperity. For decades, the continent has been burdened by narratives of poverty, conflict, and dependency. Yet, a new generation of visionary, ethical, and courageous leaders is rising — men and women who understand that Africa’s greatest wealth lies in its people, its diverse cultures, and its untapped potential. True African leadership must be transformative, inclusive, and globally oriented, focused on building resilient institutions, empowered citizens, and a competitive continent that contributes meaningfully to humanity’s progress.

The Imperative of Transformative Leadership

At its best, African leadership is defined by a deep sense of purpose and ownership. It rejects the politics of survival and embraces the politics of vision. Transformative leaders prioritize human capital development as the foundation of progress. They invest heavily in quality education, healthcare, skills acquisition, and entrepreneurship, recognizing that a skilled, healthy, and empowered population is the ultimate driver of sustainable development.

A shining example is Rwanda under President Paul Kagame. In the aftermath of the 1994 genocide, Rwanda transformed from a failed state into one of Africa’s fastest-growing economies through deliberate investments in education, technology, and women’s empowerment. Today, Rwanda boasts one of the highest rates of female parliamentary representation in the world and has become a hub for digital innovation and entrepreneurship in East Africa.

Such leadership is also rooted in integrity and accountability. Corruption and weak institutions have long hindered Africa’s advancement. Leaders who model transparency, uphold the rule of law, and place national and continental interests above personal gain build the trust necessary for long-term transformation. Botswana stands as a classic case. Since independence, successive leaders have managed diamond revenues with remarkable prudence, establishing strong anti-corruption institutions and consistent fiscal discipline, resulting in one of Africa’s highest per capita incomes and stable democratic governance.

Visionary leadership in Africa further demands economic diversification and innovation. Moving away from over-reliance on raw commodity exports, forward-thinking leaders champion industrialization, technology adoption, renewable energy, and the creative industries. Kenya’s “Silicon Savannah” in Nairobi, driven by deliberate government policies supporting fintech and digital startups, has produced globally recognized companies like M-Pesa, which revolutionized mobile money and financial inclusion across Africa. Similarly, Morocco has successfully diversified its economy through investments in automotive manufacturing, aerospace, and renewable energy, positioning itself as a major industrial player on the continent.

Building Africa Through Unity and Integration

No African nation can achieve greatness in isolation. The most effective leaders champion Pan-Africanism and regional integration. They actively support frameworks like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which promises to create the world’s largest single market. They strengthen Regional Economic Communities (RECs) such as ECOWAS, EAC, and SADC as building blocks for a stronger African Union. By harmonizing policies, reducing trade barriers, and investing in cross-border infrastructure, these leaders turn geographic proximity into economic power and shared prosperity.

Leadership that builds Africa also invests in peace and security. Persistent conflicts continue to destroy lives and opportunities. Progressive leaders prioritize conflict prevention, mediation, and post-conflict reconstruction. They strengthen institutions like the African Peace and Security Architecture (APSA) and promote African solutions to African problems, reducing harmful dependence on external actors. Ghana’s consistent contribution to regional peacekeeping missions and its stable democratic transitions under leaders like Jerry Rawlings and John Kufuor demonstrate how committed leadership can anchor stability in turbulent times.

 

Developing Africans Globally

Great African leadership extends beyond national borders. It nurtures a new generation of globally competitive Africans — professionals, entrepreneurs, scientists, diplomats, and creatives who carry African excellence to every corner of the world. This requires deliberate investment in education systems that emphasize critical thinking, creativity, digital literacy, and global competence. It means creating policies that engage the African diaspora, encouraging them to invest their skills, capital, and networks back home through structured programmes.

Leaders who build Africans globally also reshape narratives. They counter negative stereotypes by promoting stories of African innovation, resilience, cultural richness, and intellectual contribution. Nigeria’s booming Nollywood industry and its vibrant tech ecosystem (with hubs in Lagos and Abuja) have projected a dynamic image of African creativity and entrepreneurship to the world. Similarly, South Africa’s leadership in fields like biotechnology and renewable energy showcases the continent’s capacity for scientific excellence.

The Leadership Imperative in a Changing World

Africa faces significant challenges — poverty, infrastructure deficits, youth unemployment, climate vulnerability, and governance gaps. However, these are not insurmountable. The leadership Africa needs today must be courageous enough to make difficult decisions, inclusive enough to empower women, youth, and marginalized groups, and ethical enough to reject patronage and short-termism. It must balance national sovereignty with continental solidarity, and local realities with global opportunities.

A Call to Action

The future of Africa will not be written by external forces. It will be authored by Africans themselves — guided by leaders who understand that leadership is ultimately a trust to serve, uplift, and build. The continent does not lack potential. What it needs is consistent, visionary, and accountable leadership at every level — from village heads to heads of state, from the classroom to the boardroom.

When leadership rises to this calling, Africa will not only build itself but will also offer the world new models of resilience, innovation, and inclusive growth. The time has come for a new covenant between African leaders and their people — a covenant rooted in trust, service, and shared destiny.

Africa’s story is still being written. With the right leadership, it can become one of triumph, dignity, and global excellence. The question is not whether Africa can rise — but whether its leaders will summon the will, wisdom, and courage to make that rise unstoppable.

Dr. Tolulope A. Adegoke, AMBP-UN is a globally recognized scholar-practitioner and thought leader at the nexus of security, governance, and strategic leadership. His mission is dedicated to advancing ethical governance, strategic human capital development, resilient nation building, and global peace. He can be reached via: tolulopeadegoke01@gmail.comglobalstageimpacts@gmail.com

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Opinion: Big Brother Africa: A Case of Cain and Abel

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By Modest Ibe

Against the backdrop of the nauseating news of attacks on immigrant Africans in South Africa by our South African brothers, whatever the grievances are. I am painfully constrained to make this plea to our human conscience.

“…While they were in the field, Cain attacked his brother Abel and killed him .” – Genesis 4:8

It is no doubt that South Africa, since her Independence in 1994, having been subjected to the official segregation policy known as Apartheid as enforced by the National Party (NP), from 1948 up to 1994, has been a Big Brother to all peoples of the world, especially those of African descent. Thus earning the most beautiful description as ”Rainbow Nation” – a term coined by Archbishop Desmond Tutu to describe post-apartheid South Africa, after South Africa’s first fully democratic election in 1994.

The country having experienced first hand the monstrosity of man’s inhumanity to man, made the most forgiving and humane declaration through a foremost member of the liberation struggles for Africa and Africans and the country’s first democratic President, Nelson Mandela that:

”Our daily deeds as ordinary South Africans must produce an actual South African reality that will reinforce humanity’s belief in justice, strengthen its confidence in the nobility of the human soul and sustain all our hopes for a glorious life for all – never, never and never again shall it be that this beautiful land will again experience the oppression of one by another, and suffer the indignity of being the skunk of the world.” – From Mandela’s inaugural address as President of South Africa (Emphasis mine).

This above quote was a corroboration of Mandela’s belief that “a new society cannot be created by reproducing the repugnant past, however refined or enticingly repackaged.”

Following the death of this great African on December 5, 2013, the whole world converged on the soil of this rainbow Africa nation, in honour of Africa’s uncommon humanity as exemplified in Mandela’s life. His life was a gospel of forgiveness; this message was even stronger at his death, creating an atmosphere of reconciliation and love, even between long-sworn enemies like America and Cuba. For the first time in over fifty years, there was a handshake between both countries, over the remains of Nelson Mandela.
As such, his life was that of a Big Brother, father and king, within whose kingdom all peoples of the world were accommodated and shown the true hospitality, care and love that are intrinsic to and beautifies Africa and Africans, wherever they may find themselves.

Thus this was one legacy that Mandela bequeathed to South Africa and all who live in it, as a man’s true legacy is the life he lived, not the possessions he left behind. His was a legacy of being a Big Brother to all – friends, neighbours, strangers, whatever the relationship definition, so long they are humans, they deserves our humanity and it is wicked to deny them that. Being our brother’s keeper is the finest demonstration of that legacy.

The foregoing eulogy on Mandela is against the backdrop of the recent Afrophobic (not xenophobic, for we are African brothers and sisters and not foreigners or strangers to one another, though distance may separate us) miasma that began to rear its ugly head like an octopus on our African soil, nay Mandela’s South Africa, unleashed by the misguided South African against his brothers and sisters, putting one in a strange paradox of memories – the evil and the desirable.The former being the memories of the dark evil nights of segregation against Africans that bred fear and terror in the minds of all Africans, as painfully articulated by the South African Poet Oswald Mbuyiseinil Mtshali in his quest-for-freedom-and-safety poem:

NIGHT FALL IN SOWETO

Nightfall comes like
a dreaded disease
seeping through the pores
of a healthy body
and ravaging it beyond repair
A murderer’s hand,
lurking in the shadows,
clasping the dagger,
strikes down the helpless victim.
I am the victim.
I am slaughtered
every night in the streets.
I am cornered by the fear
gnawing at my timid heart;
in my helplessness I languish.
Man has ceased to be man
Man has become beast
Man has become prey.
I am the prey;
I am the quarry to be run down
by the marauding beast
let loose by cruel nightfall
from his cage of death.
Where is my refuge?
Where am I safe?
Not in my matchbox house
Where I barricade myself against nightfall.
I tremble at his crunching footsteps,
I quake at his deafening knock at the door.
“Open up!” he barks like a rabid dog
thirsty for my blood.
Nightfall! Nightfall!
You are my mortal enemy.
But why were you ever created?
Why can’t it be daytime?
Daytime forever more?

The latter are the memories of nostalgia and longing of the life of humanity of Mandela and the Africa of his dream and for which he boldly declared at the Rivonia Trial, 20 April 1964:

“During my lifetime I have dedicated myself to this struggle of the African people. I have fought against white domination and I have fought against black domination. I have cherished the ideal of a democratic and free society in which all persons live together in harmony and with equal opportunities. It is an ideal which I hope to live for and to see realized. But if needs be, my lord, it is an ideal for which I am ready to die.”

The reality of the recent hate, murder and killing perpetuated by our African brothers against their fellow African brothers and sisters, with their concomitant destruction of property and looting of shops in heaven’s broad day light, as against the ”night fall” of our dear brother Oswald Mtshali, bespeaks of the devilry and callousness that have possessed our hearts like an evil spirit, in place of our grandest and unmatched African humanity, kindness, care, hospitality and sacrifice for our brothers and sisters.
Painfully, as it is today, we seem to have descended from the shinning mountain top of a Big Brother, for which South Africa and indeed indeed Africa has always been known to the dark valley of the Biblical Cain that kills his brother, Abel. Consequently, the society that Africa’s founding fathers dreamt of is giving way to a society that is now reproducing the repugnant past of hate, even among our African family.

This question we must answer, which is a moral one, is: What justification do we Africans have to condemn the White Apartheid regime, if our current thoughts, attitudes and actions after having attained freedom from white oppression, is turning worse than those of the days of white segregation?

The challenge before us is to refute, by the generality of our behaviour, the conclusions of the former White South African dictator,P.W. Botha on the Black Race 27 years ago, as reprinted by David G Mailu for the Sunday Times,a South African newspaper, in 1985.

“We are not obliged even the least to try to prove to anybody and to the blacks that we are superior people. We have demonstrated that to the blacks in 1001 ways. The Republic of South Africa that we know of today has not been created by wishful thinking. We have created it at the expenses of intelligence, sweat and blood……We do not pretend like other whites that we like the blacks. The fact that, blacks look like human beings and act like human beings do not necessarily make them sensible human beings. Hedgehogs are not porcupines and lizards are not crocodiles because they look alike. If God had wanted us to be equal to the blacks, he would have created us all of a uniform colour and intellect. But he created us differently: Whites, Blacks, Yellow, Rulers and the ruled. Intellectually,we are superior to the Blacks; that has been proven beyond any reasonable doubt over the years. I believe that the Afrikaner is honest, God fearing person, who has demonstrated practically the right way of being. By now every one of us has seen it practically that the Blacks cannot rule themselves. Give them guns and they will kill each other . They are good in nothing else but making noise, dancing, marrying many wives and indulging in sex. Let us all accept that the Blackman is a symbol of poverty, mental inferiority, laziness and emotional incompetence. Isn’t it plausible? Therefore that the Whiteman is created to rule the Blackman……And here is a creature (Blackman) that lacks foresight….. The average Black does not plan his life beyond a year”.

Let us all, as Africans reflect on that, and also learn to re-ignite that spirit and culture for which Africa is known, which is being our brother’s keeper and not killer, like Cain who attacked and killed his brother Abel, when he ought to guard and keep him.

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Beyond the Present Impasse: Five-Pillar Strategy for Restoring Credibility of ECOWAS

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By Tolulope A. Adegoke PhD

PREAMBLE: THE STRATEGIC MOMENT AND ITS IMPERATIVES

The Economic Community of West African States confronts a moment of institutional reckoning without precedent in its fifty-year history. The confluence of democratic recession, the fracturing of regional solidarity, the commodification of the Community’s security space by external actors, and the erosion of popular faith in the tangible benefits of integration has converged to pose a systemic threat to the organization’s foundational relevance. The established toolkit of declaratory diplomacy, automatic suspension, and sanctions escalation has demonstrably exhausted its capacity to compel compliance or to stabilize the regional order.

The way forward, therefore, cannot be a mere intensification of existing methods. It must be a strategic recalibration of ECOWAS’s institutional posture, operational doctrines, and normative architecture. The objective is not the preservation of institutional prestige for its own sake, but the patient, principled, and incentivized reconstruction of a regional political community in which sovereign member states and their citizens perceive membership as a demonstrable enhancement of their national security, economic prosperity, and democratic legitimacy. The following roadmap articulates a sequenced, non-biased, and operationally concrete way forward, structured across five interdependent strategic lines of effort.

STRATEGIC LINE OF EFFORT I: RECALIBRATE THE NORMATIVE FOUNDATION OF THE COMMUNITY

The prevailing perception that the ECOWAS normative framework on democratic governance is applied with selectivity—penalizing military seizures of power while remaining diplomatically passive in the face of civilian constitutional manipulation—has inflicted severe damage on the institution’s moral authority. Rectifying this asymmetry is an indispensable precondition for the restoration of credible institutional leadership.

 

Action 1.1: Convene an Extraordinary Authority Summit Dedicated Exclusively to Normative Self-Correction

The Chair of the Authority must convene, within a non-extendable 90-day period, an Extraordinary Summit with a single, undiluted agenda item: the critical review and amendment of the 2001 Protocol on Democracy and Good Governance. This Summit must not be subsumed within a broader agenda of security or economic matters. Its singular focus signals institutional seriousness and prevents diplomatic evasion.

Action 1.2: Codify and Adopt a Binding Symmetrical Sanctions Regime

The Summit must adopt a formal Supplementary Protocol that introduces, with legally binding precision, a definition of the “Constitutional Coup” or “Incumbent Entrenchment.” This shall be defined as any action by a sitting elected executive, whether through legislative manipulation, compliant judicial ruling, or tailored constitutional referendum, that modifies the fundamental law of the state for the primary purpose of abrogating or eliminating established presidential term limits in order to extend the incumbent’s tenure. The sanctions prescribed for this defined violation must be identical in their automaticity of trigger, procedural robustness, and severity of consequence to those prescribed for classical military coups d’état. This single act of symmetrical legal self-correction eliminates the charge of institutional bias and re-establishes the Community as a principled, impartial guarantor of democratic integrity.

Action 1.3: Mandate the ECOWAS Council of Ministers to Develop a Compliance Monitoring and Early Warning Matrix

The Council of Ministers must be mandated to develop, within 120 days, a transparent, indicator-based Compliance Monitoring and Early Warning Matrix. This matrix must track, on a continuous and publicly accessible basis, the compliance status of every member state against the full spectrum of democratic governance norms, including term limit provisions, electoral calendar integrity, and civil liberties protections. The matrix serves as an objective, depoliticized early warning mechanism that triggers preventive diplomatic engagement before a crisis crystallizes, removing the element of discretionary political judgment that fuels perceptions of bias.

STRATEGIC LINE OF EFFORT II: REPOSITION THE SECURITY ARCHITECTURE FROM PUNITIVE POSTURE TO ENABLING PARTNERSHIP

The region’s security space has become an unregulated, competitive marketplace for external military projection. ECOWAS must fundamentally reconceive its security offer to member states, pivoting from a posture associated with kinetic interventionism to one of technical enabling partnership that sovereign states perceive as enhancing, rather than constraining, their national security.

Action 2.1: Adopt and Promulgate a Binding External Security Partner Code of Conduct

The Mediation and Security Council must convene a high-level Strategic De-confliction and Transparency Dialogue with all external state actors conducting unilateral security operations on the territory of ECOWAS member states. The binding, legally codified outcome shall be an ECOWAS External Security Partner Code of Conduct. Its central provision mandates that all bilateral Status of Forces Agreements (SOFAs), defense cooperation memoranda, and security-related basing or access pacts between any external state and any individual ECOWAS member state be formally and confidentially deposited with a centralized registry at the ECOWAS Commission within a non-extendable 90-day period. The objective is a non-prejudicial technical audit ensuring that the cumulative effect of multiple, independently negotiated bilateral arrangements does not inadvertently undermine collective regional security.

Action 2.2: Formally Reconceptualize the ECOWAS Standby Force into a Modular Technical Enabling Capability

The Department of Political Affairs, Peace and Security must be directed to present, within 180 days, a comprehensive doctrinal and operational blueprint for the reconceptualization of the ECOWAS Standby Force (ESF) into a new instrument, provisionally designated the “ECOWAS Crisis Response and Resilience Capability” (ECRRC). This new capability must execute a decisive doctrinal pivot away from large-scale conventional combat power projection—a mission type assessed as operationally unviable and politically irrecoverable in the current environment—and towards the provision of high-demand, low-substitutability technical enabling functions. These core modules shall include a multi-source intelligence fusion and strategic warning cell, a specialized digital border security and management task force, and a dedicated regional counter-financing of terrorism unit operating in institutional coordination with GIABA. This recalibrated offer creates a non-coercive incentive for disengaged states to voluntarily resume security cooperation.

Action 2.3: Establish a Specialized Civilian Harm Monitoring and Accountability Mechanism

The Commission must establish, with immediate effect, an operationally independent Civilian Harm Monitoring and Accountability Mechanism (CHMAM). Its personnel shall be sourced from member states with no direct security-material interest in the Sahelian theatre. Its mandate is the impartial, transparent, and universally applied monitoring, verification, and public reporting of civilian harm perpetrated by all armed actors, including state forces and their external partners. This mechanism depoliticizes the protection agenda and positions ECOWAS as a non-partisan guarantor of humanitarian accountability.

 

STRATEGIC LINE OF EFFORT III: ENGINEER A CALIBRATED, INCENTIVE-ANCHORED POLITICAL ENGAGEMENT FRAMEWORK

The sterile binary between “immediate unconditional constitutional restoration” and “indefinite unverifiable transition” has produced a protracted diplomatic gridlock. A new engagement framework, grounded in verified deliverables and sequenced incentives, is required.

Action 3.1: Constitute a Permanent, Empowered Panel of Eminent Persons for Silent Mediation
The Chair of the Authority must formally constitute, through a Decision of the Authority, a permanent Panel of Former Heads of State and Eminent Persons. Membership must be curated exclusively from a small cohort of former leaders whose nations possess an unassailable living legacy of peaceful, constitutional, and fully contested democratic alternation of executive power. The Panel’s mandate is to conduct a silent, continuous, indefinitely sustained shuttle diplomacy mission, operating strictly on the methodology of interest-based negotiation. No public statements, no deadlines, and no press releases are to be issued by the Panel. This permanently discontinues the counterproductive practice of “mégaphone diplomacy.”

Action 3.2: Table a Formal, Three-Tiered Transition Compact with Verified Deliverables and Sequenced Incentives

The Commission, under the political guidance of the Mediation and Security Council, must prepare and formally table a comprehensive Three-Tiered Transition Compact as the baseline framework for engagement with member states currently under transitional military administration. The tiers are sequenced as follows:

·         Tier 1 (Immediate Confidence Building): Full, unimpeded humanitarian access to all conflict-affected zones, verified by operational humanitarian agencies; and the release of all political detainees not credibly charged with violent criminal offenses, verified by the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights. Upon successful independent verification, ECOWAS commits to a formal suspension of targeted economic sanctions against the state apparatus.

·         Tier 2 (Sequenced Political Roadmap): A binding 24-month, bottom-up electoral sequence—local elections first, constitutional referendum second, presidential and parliamentary elections third—with a guaranteed statutory role for ECOWAS in the technical vetting of the electoral management body. Upon verification of each phase, incremental incentives are released.

·         Tier 3 (Structural Guarantee Against Self-Dealing): The constitutional entrenchment, prior to terminal elections, of a non-amendable clause prohibiting any serving member of the transitional government from contesting those elections. Upon verification and peaceful transfer of power, all remaining sanctions are lifted, and ECOWAS proactively sponsors the state’s full reintegration and development financing package.

Action 3.3: Formally Delink Humanitarian Access from Political Negotiation
The Commission must issue a binding institutional directive establishing that humanitarian access and the protection of civilian populations are non-negotiable obligations under international humanitarian law and the ECOWAS Treaty. These shall not be treated as bargaining chips within political negotiations. This directive establishes an impartial humanitarian baseline that protects the vulnerable and starves extremist narratives of their recruitment material.

STRATEGIC LINE OF EFFORT IV: CONSTRUCT AND DELIVER A TANGIBLE, VISIBLE ECONOMIC COUNTER-OFFER

Economic sanctions, while a legally mandated instrument, have inflicted disproportionate harm on vulnerable populations and have been successfully weaponized by transitional authorities as evidence of ECOWAS hostility. A serious, fully-funded, and rapidly disbursing economic offer that demonstrates the irreplaceable material value of ECOWAS membership is a strategic necessity.

Action 4.1: Capitalize and Launch the ECOWAS Community Livelihood and Border Zone Resilience Facility

The Commission, in partnership with the ECOWAS Bank for Investment and Development (EBID) and the African Development Bank, must convene a dedicated donor pledging conference within 120 days to capitalize a substantially expanded, fast-disbursing stabilization instrument. The facility’s exclusive investment focus shall be the cross-border communities whose economic fabric has been destroyed by insecurity and political rupture. Priority projects shall include the rehabilitation of transhumance corridors with negotiated local governance structures, the construction of solar-powered border market infrastructure, and the launch of a massive Community-Based Youth Employment and Apprenticeship Program targeted at displaced youth in frontier zones. All projects must be collaboratively and transparently branded as direct dividends of ECOWAS solidarity.

Action 4.2: Adopt a Unified Institutional Position Linking Debt Relief to Verified Governance Progress

The Authority must adopt a formal Common Position directing its collective diplomatic weight towards aggressive advocacy for a comprehensive, non-punitive, and development-sensitive sovereign debt restructuring framework for all severely affected member states. This advocacy shall be executed at the G20 Common Framework, the IMF Executive Board, and the Paris Club. Critically, the ECOWAS Common Position must explicitly and publicly link a pathway to structural debt relief to the affected state’s independently verified, irreversible progress against the Tier 2 and Tier 3 benchmarks of the Transition Compact. This leverages the international financial architecture as a structurally aligned positive incentive for good-faith engagement, offering a sophisticated alternative to blunt unilateral sanctions.

 

Action 4.3: Reaffirm and Technically Safeguard the Free Movement Protocol as a Non-Negotiable Community Asset

The Commission must urgently establish a dedicated, technically staffed “Free Movement Safeguard and Facilitation Unit.” This unit’s mandate is to work bilaterally and discretely with all member states, including those in withdrawal processes, to identify and implement the minimal, security-justified, and technically proportionate border management procedures that can preserve the residual functional operation of the Free Movement Protocol for ordinary citizens, even during periods of political estrangement. Preserving this tangible, daily-lived benefit of ECOWAS citizenship protects the human constituency for regional integration and prevents the political fracture from metastasizing into permanent inter-community estrangement.

STRATEGIC LINE OF EFFORT V: INSTITUTIONALIZE A TRANSFORMED STRATEGIC COMMUNICATION AND DIPLOMATIC PROTOCOL

All substantive policy interventions will fail if transmitted through the existing, demonstrably counterproductive communication protocols. A binding institutional transformation of ECOWAS’s mode of public engagement is a standalone strategic priority.

Action 5.1: Institute a Mandatory Linguistic and Register Recalibration Across All Official Communications
The Commission must issue a binding editorial protocol mandating a permanent and institution-wide recalibration of the language employed in all communiqués, declarations, and public statements. The default opening frame of “condemnation, suspension, and ultimatum” must be replaced by a primary, consistent language frame that centers the “non-negotiable, legally binding obligation of ECOWAS to the sustained physical security, human dignity, and economic opportunity of the individual West African citizen.” The primary subjects of all public interventions shall be the identifiable human beings whose lives are affected: the farmer, the trader, the displaced child. This reframes the diplomatic confrontation from a contest between elites into a shared responsibility for protection.

Action 5.2: Permanently Discontinue Mégaphone Diplomacy and Institutionalize a Protocol of Public Humility

The ECOWAS Authority must formally resolve to permanently discontinue the practice of issuing public ultimatum deadlines as an instrument of political mediation. The only regular public updates permitted on the political process shall be confined to measured, independently verified progress on humanitarian deliverables. The substantive, consequential work of political resolution is to be conducted exclusively through the confidential, professional channels of the Permanent Panel of Eminent Persons. This protocol deliberately starves the political crisis of the sensationalist, polarizing public media cycle upon which spoilers and external actors depend, relocating the work of resolution to an environment where trust can be painstakingly reconstructed.

 

Action 5.3: Launch a Sustained, Decentralized Community-Level Public Diplomacy Campaign

The Commission must design and resource a sustained, decentralized public diplomacy campaign that operates below the level of national media and engages directly with local communities, traditional authorities, women’s associations, and youth networks in border regions. The campaign’s message must be non-polemical and focused exclusively on the tangible, practical benefits of ECOWAS citizenship—the right to travel, to trade, to access education and healthcare across borders—documented through the authentic testimonies of real citizens whose lives have been positively impacted. This ground-level, person-to-person diplomacy rebuilds the popular constituency for regional integration from the bottom up, countering the top-down, state-controlled narratives that currently dominate the information space.

Dr. Tolulope A. Adegoke, AMBP-UN is a globally recognized scholar-practitioner and thought leader at the nexus of security, governance, and strategic leadership. His mission is dedicated to advancing ethical governance, strategic human capital development, resilient nation building, and global peace. He can be reached via: tolulopeadegoke01@gmail.comglobalstageimpacts@gmail.com

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