Opinion

The Oracle: Nigeria in Search of Enduring Political Structure: Imperative of Structural Reform (Pt. 4)

Published

2 years ago

August 18, 2023

Eric

By Mike Ozekhome

INTRODUCTION

In the last part of this discussion, after posing the question: Have we really been doomed? We answered it in the negative and went ahead to highlight notable achievements by Nigerians. We wondered whether Nigeria is a failed State. In this episode, we shall consider the phenomenon of insecurity in Nigeria and how it laid waste to large swathes of Nigeria and rendered its governments (particularly states) prostrate. Read on.

INSECURITY REIGNS SUPREME

In terms of security, Nigeria is becoming a killing field. The daily slaughter ritual in Nigeria that has turned the Nigerian geographical space into a killing field is not only criminal, but also smacks of total abdication of governance by the current government. It is most cruel, hideous, horrific, inhuman, dastardly and barbaric. The latest theatre of the absurd is Plateau state, where hundreds of innocent and helpless Nigerians, especially the most vulnerable (children, women and elderly), have been mindlessly hacked down in cold blood. Nigerians have become “walking corpses” or “the living dead” (apologies, AyiKwei Armah: “The Beautiful Ones Are not yet Born”). The government that appears overtly overwhelmed (if it ever cared at all), wrings its hands in utter helplessness and blames everything and any one, but itself. PMB says he can only pray to God for miracles. The Commander-in-Chief (C-in–C) in saying this, breaks the heart and freely donates to the citizens, helplessness and hopelessness. What is the military there for, since the Police has been overrun? Sections 130 (2) and 215 (3) of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 1999, as altered, make the President the C-in-C of both the Armed Forces and the Police. Never before, or after the three year bloody Nigerian fratricidal civil war has Nigeria witnessed such barefaced butchery of innocent souls in a most horrendous manner that portends ethnic cleansing and genocidal tendencies.

The entire security architecture of Nigeria has been greatly compromised and doctored. The Nigerian Constitution (section 14 (2) (b), makes the welfare and security of lives and property the primary purpose of government. Any government that cannot protect its citizens is not worth being called a government by any description or appellation. We have become a laughing stock before international circles. We make merriment and hold political rallies on the cold graves of hot steaming blood of innocent Nigerians. We wanted to win the world cup at all cost, amidst vengeful slaughter of fellow Nigerians. But, God is a just and righteous God. He does not tolerate injustice, wickedness. He does not condone unearned adulation and hero-worshipping: The Bible: Job 34:12; Col 3:25; Deut 10:18; 32:4; Isaiah 30:18. The Holy Quran: 5:8; 16:90; 59: 22-24. Die hard politicians are already busy, politicking about 2019, while our citizens are daily massacred in cold blood. A governor that is supposed to be the Chief Security Officer of his state is nothing but a mere toothless crying bulldog, having been stripped of such luxury of controlling powers by sections 215 (4) of the Constitution. This section enthrones a behemoth, elephantine and immobile Police Force at the center, with the governor at the mercy of the IGP and president. That is why I have, over the years, consistently and persistently clamoured for true fiscal federalism that allows for state Police and community policing. From Agatu, Naka and Agasha in Benue state, Demsa, Suwa and Burukulu in Adamawa state, Riyom, BarkinLadi and Jos in Plateau state, to Birnin-Gwari, Dangaji, UnguwarGajere in Kaduna State; from Izza, Wudula, Blakule and Darajimal in Borno State; to Takum, Shaakaa, Donga and Ntule in Taraba State; to Maraban –Udege Village, Aisa and Aguma in Nassarawa State; from Ugbona, Okpella, Odiguetue and Igiode in Edo State, Nigeria knows no peace. Things have fallen apart. The falcon can no longer hear the falconer.

Even in Uwheru, Oreba, Ovwor, Onicha-Olona and Abraka in Delta State; to Okpanku, Ozzala, UkpabiNimbo, Ngwoko, Ebor, Umuome, Ugwuijoro and Ugwuachara in Enugu State, the story is the same: gory and hideous blood-letting and festival of blood. The greatest worry of it all is that these killers are not ghosts or apparitions. They are known. They even come out openly, thump their chests, confess and own up to their criminal acts. The Herdsmen umbrella, Miyetti-Allah, claimed the blood-chilling murder of over 200 Plateau citizens was because 300 of its cows were rustled. It boasted that no one could have expected peace without retaliation, under such circumstances. The same group has, over time, infamously given various reasons for its herdsmen’s killings: Nimbo massacre, Enugu State (deadly attack): “we killed because they stole our cows”. Benue State (several progroms): “we killed because of anti-grazing law”. Taraba State (several): “we killed because they blocked our grazing routes”. Adamawa State (many Communities): “we killed because they broke our cow’s leg”. Zamfara State: “we killed because the farmers said we were grazing on their farm lands”. Haba!

A PROSTRATE GOVERNMENT

Nearly seven years down the line, there have been no arrests, no prosecution, no arraignment, no convictions. Rather, some five Christians were arrested in Adamawa, tried and sentenced to death by hanging, for allegedly killing one Fulani herdsman. Some lives are now more precious than others. Rather than kill cow for meal to celebrate occasions, as we know it, we now kill human beings to celebrate cows. The government not only looks the other way, but actually condones the heartless cold-blooded slaughter. Nigeria cannot continue like this. The federal government must rise up to the occasion, draft military personnel to these volatile areas and wash its hands off, like Pontius Pilate, of compromise, condonation, aiding and abetting, of this national horror. The saddest and deepest of all the national cuts and travesty of justice is that there is no one to complain to. The president himself, the very C–in–C, who had promised to lead from the front during his campaigns in 2015, wrings his hands in utter helplessness, and moans (like any of us):“There is nothing I can do to help the situation except to pray to God to help us out of the security challenges”.

Interpretation: “I am helpless; Be prepared to take what you get”. But, the Holy Bible tells us that “God helps those who help themselves” (Hezekiah 6:1). In 2 Thessalonians 3:10, we are admonished that “the one who is unwilling to work shall not eat”. In the Holy Quran, it is, “Allah helps those who help themselves” 13:11; (Tafsir of Chapter 022 verse 40). Is the president being fed the true and genuine situation of horrific and grisly events across Nigeria? Can he, when virtually all his security apparatchik consists of nepotic and cronystic appointees from his ethnic and religious groups only: Minister of Defence, Minister of Interior, Chief of Army Staff, Chief of Air Staff, IGP, DSS, EFCC, Immigration, Customs, NSCDC, Prisons, NSA, C of S, etc, etc? Are we in the Fulani Republic of Nigeria, or Republic of Northern Nigeria?

The non-prosecution of these marauding herdsmen has emboldened them to commit more crimes. Daily carnage and spilling of innocent blood have become the norm. Nigerians now appear unshockable. Many lamentably try to justify this modern day genocide with partisan political interpretations, pretending all is well. Meanwhile, Nigeria dies by installment. Most Nigerians have become more cowardly than ever before, afraid even of their own shadows. Nigerians should stand and speak up before we are all eclipsed in dismemberment. Reasonating voices appear suddenly mute. Where is the “Occupy Nigeria” group that vehemently protested against GEJ across Nigeria, especially in Lagos and Abuja. Even PMB had himself joined them. Where is General Yakubu Gowon and his praying Orchestral? Where is the voice of gap-toothed IBB? What of roving Ambassador, General Abdusallam Abubakar? Where is GEJ’s voice (even if he will be accused of partisanship, having lost the last elections)? Where are the human rights activists, emergency NGOs proprietors, CSOs, FBOs, etc? I cannot hear the voice of strong willed Ebitu Ukiwe? Where is respected Col. Dangiwa?

Why is everyone keeping silent when Nigeria is sliding towards totalitarianism, absolutism and even fascism? May God forbid “Ruandanization” of our already beleaguered contraption called Nigeria. Perhaps, to prick government’s conscience on the daily butchery of innocent Nigerians in their homes and farms, and the consequential seizure and renaming of their ancestral communities, we should implement the recent suggestion of my good friend, Senator Shehu Sani. He said: “We need a graveyard in the three arms zone of Abuja so that victims of the mindless killings in the country can be buried close to the seat of power. Then the Executive, Legislators & the Judiciary can feel the pains of the helpless widows and orphans we failed to protect.” Nigerians are crying. There is lamentation in the land. There is gnashing of teeth. Melancholy, despondency, hopelessness and regrets stare people in the face. These times are frightening.

Public trust that had initially been ballooned to a myth and anchored on the dizzying height of change mantra and PMB’s much touted integrity, has since considerably dwindled to a near zero level. Hear the sorrowful dirge of a victim of the Plateau genocide, Paul Wyom Zakka: “They told us to go to the farms because they could not provide us with jobs. We went to the farms without knowing that our produce were meant to feed their cows. When the cows came, we stopped them from destroying our farm produce; Today, they kill us daily so their cows can feed.” Thomas Jefferson, American president from 1801 to 1809, once famously said: “Does the government fear us? Or do we fear the government? When governments fear the people, there is liberty. When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. The strongest reason for the people to retain the right to keep and bear arms is, as a last resort, to protect themselves against tyranny in government”.

From the forgoing it can be seen that, in the words of Sulaimon Olanrewaju (lanresulaimon@yahoo.com), “Nigeria is a paradox; so wealthy, yet so poor; so endowed, yet so deprived. Nigeria makes more money than many countries of the world but is unfortunately ranked among the poorest because many Nigerians live below the poverty line as they earn less than two dollars a day. According to the Brookings Institution in a report, The Start of a New Poverty Narrative, Nigeria is now home to the highest number of people living in extreme poverty on the globe. Similarly, a United Nations report on Nigeria’s Common Country Analysis, says youth unemployment is 42 per cent, while the United Nations Education, Scientific and Cultural Organisation (UNESCO) puts the number of out of school children at over 10.5million. Infant mortality rate is 85.8 of 1000 live births, while the country has the highest rate of under-five mortality in the world. Malnutrition prevalence, according to the UN, ranges between approximately 46.9 per cent in the South West to 74.3 per cent in North West and North East.” (To be continued).

THOUGHT FOR THE WEEK

“A restructuring of an organization and or society is always a difficult time and delicate”. (Toto Wolff).

Opinion

From Chibok Girls to Christian Genocide: How 2015’s U.S Script is Replaying in 2027

Published

4 days ago

November 3, 2025

Eric

By Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba

In my own opinion, history is on the verge of repeating itself, this time, in a more dangerous and manipulative form. When U.S. President Donald Trump recently made his provocative remarks about “Christian genocide” in Nigeria, many around the world interpreted them as a moral call to defend persecuted Christians. But to the politically conscious, Trump’s words are not just about faith, they are about power, influence, and attention seeking.

Trump’s sudden interest in Nigeria’s internal affairs is neither noble nor spontaneous. It mirrors a familiar conspiracy, one that Nigeria painfully witnessed in 2014/2015, when then U.S. President Barack Obama and his administration turned world opinion against the innocent President Goodluck Jonathan under the emotional shadow of the Chibok girls’ abduction. That global outrage was cleverly used to weaken a sitting government and shape Nigeria’s political direction.

Today, the same playbook is being dusted off, but with a new slogan. In 2015, the rallying cry was “Bring Back Our Girls.” In 2027, it’s “Stop Christian Genocide.” Different words, same machinery and the same foreign interest in controlling Nigeria’s political outcome.

At the center of this new narrative lies Nigeria’s Muslim–Muslim presidential ticket, a decision that has stirred deep unease among many Christians. For a nation long divided by religion and ethnicity, having both the president and vice president share the same faith inevitably triggered distrust, especially among Christians who form the country’s second-largest population bloc. This sentiment, amplified through social media and Western lenses, has given birth to the idea of an orchestrated “Christian persecution” under the current administration.

However, what many foreign commentators fail or refuse to acknowledge is that both Christians and Muslims are victims of terrorism in Nigeria. Research and on-ground realities have shown that Muslim communities in the North-East, North-West and parts of North-Central have actually suffered even more from terrorist attacks, displacement, and loss of livelihood. The killing fields of Borno, Yobe, Zamfara, Katsina, Niger, parts of Sokoto and Plateau States all in the North are filled with innocent Muslims who have lost everything to the same extremists who disguised as Muslims and now being branded as “defenders of Islam.”

Let’s be clear: terrorism has no religion. Those who kill in the name of any faith are not followers of that faith. Terrorism is not the monopoly of Islam, Christianity, or any religion, it is a global cancer that thrives on hatred, poverty, and manipulation. Around the world, from the Middle East to Europe, Asia to Africa, criminals and terrorists exist in every society. They have no true religious identity, only political and ideological motives. Linking terrorism with Islam is not only misleading, it is blackmail, and it fuels further division in a world that desperately needs understanding.

And this is where Trump’s rhetoric becomes politically dangerous. By invoking religion, he taps into global sympathy while subtly positioning himself as the “defender of Christians”, a role that serves his conservative political base in the United States and simultaneously destabilizes Nigeria’s government ahead of the 2027 elections. His statement, therefore, is not just moral posturing; it’s a strategic geopolitical move disguised as compassion.

Let me be clear: I am not defending the Tinubu administration. I am not a member of the ruling APC, nor am I blind to the country’s economic challenges, insecurity, and social discontent. But as a Nigerian who leans more toward the opposition, I cannot pretend not to see the dangerous manipulation of our nation’s religious fault lines by foreign interests for political gain.

When Obama’s America turned against Jonathan in 2015, it claimed to stand for human rights and accountability. But what followed that “moral intervention”? The Chibok girls were not rescued. Insecurity spread across new regions. The country became more polarized. And yet, the world simply moved on.

Now, Trump’s America seems to be rebranding the same agenda. The “Christian genocide” narrative has become the new international weapon used to portray Nigeria as a failed state and its government as morally illegitimate. The risk is enormous: such a narrative not only undermines Nigeria’s sovereignty but could ignite new religious tensions between Muslims and Christians, who have coexisted, however imperfectly for decades.

What’s even more troubling is the deafening silence of the African Union (AU).
Where is the AU’s collective voice in defense of Nigeria, one of its largest and most influential member states? Why is there no statement condemning Trump’s reckless rhetoric? Africa cannot afford to sit idly by while its most populous nation is once again drawn into the web of Western political manipulation.

The AU’s silence is not neutrality, it is complicity. It sends a dangerous message that Africa’s sovereignty can still be traded cheaply on the altar of Western approval.

Nigerians must remember the lessons of 2015.
The Chibok tragedy was real, but it was also exploited. The world’s sympathy helped unseat a president, but it did not solve Nigeria’s problems. Today, the “Christian genocide” narrative risks repeating that same cycle using religion as a weapon of influence and elections as collateral damage.

We must be wiser this time.
Whether you stand with Tinubu or the opposition, Nigeria’s dignity and independence must come first. The African Union must break its silence. African leaders must speak with one voice to reject any external interference under the guise of humanitarian concern.

Because if history repeats itself in 2027 as it is beginning to do, the consequences will not only be political. They could shatter the fragile threads that hold this nation together.

Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba can be reached via drssbaba@yahoo.com

Opinion

Nigeria’s Oil Sector and the Q3 Shock

Published

5 days ago

November 3, 2025

Eric

By Michael Abimboye

If Q3 2025 taught us anything, it’s this: Nigeria’s oil sector is in survival mode.

From the state-owned NNPC Limited to big private players like Oando, TotalEnergies, and Eterna, everyone took a hit, and the numbers tell a story that’s bigger than any single company.

Let’s break it down

Oando Plc — one of Nigeria’s leading integrated energy brands posted an operating loss of ₦109.7 billion for the nine months ending September 30, 2025. That’s a major reversal from the profit it recorded last year.
The culprits? Forex volatility, trading losses, and ballooning finance costs.

TotalEnergies Marketing Nigeria Plc — usually a strong player downstream recorded a ₦10.23 billion pre-tax loss in Q3 alone, with nine-month losses rising to ₦14.1 billion. Revenue and sales volumes? Both down, crushed by inflation and weaker consumer demand.

Eterna Plc saw its gross profit crash by almost 67%, dropping from ₦30.13 billion to ₦9.94 billion in the same nine-month period. A bit of foreign exchange gain and smart debt restructuring saved it from deeper losses, but the strain is clear.

Conoil Plc — one of Nigeria’s oldest downstream players recorded a revenue dip of 12%.

Even NNPC Limited, the restructured state oil firm that once seemed untouchable, wasn’t spared. Its profit after tax dropped to ₦216 billion by September 2025, a steep slide that signals just how far the cracks have spread.

Now, here’s the real story

These aren’t failures of leadership or competence. These are symptoms of a system struggling to breathe.

Oando’s ₦109.7 billion loss, TotalEnergies’ ₦14 billion deficit, Eterna’s profit squeeze, and NNPC’s slide all echo the same truth: the problem isn’t the companies, it’s the environment.

No business, no matter how well-run, can win in a system that punishes consistency. Until Nigeria fixes its policy framework, stabilises the naira, and restores oil production reliability, this story will keep repeating itself.

Let’s talk data 📊

Nigeria’s crude oil output has been stuck around 1.4 million barrels per day through most of 2025, far below its OPEC quota.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) estimates we’ve lost about 93.7 million barrels between January and August 2025, valued at $6.8 billion.

For marketers like Oando, and TotalEnergies, that means erratic supply, higher landing costs, and shrinking margins.

And while the fuel subsidy removal was fiscally sound, it left downstream players in limbo, operating without a clear pricing framework while navigating consumer pushback on rising pump prices.

Add to that inconsistent monetary policy, delayed fiscal reforms, and mixed regulatory signals, and you have an industry operating in fog. Long-term planning? It’s become guesswork.

What Q3 2025 revealed isn’t a “bad quarter.” It’s a broken system. The companies haven’t failed; they’ve survived shocks that would’ve crushed many others.

But when the rules keep changing and the ground keeps shifting, survival itself becomes the miracle.

Nigeria’s oil sector isn’t asking for rescue. It’s asking for reform. Because until the system changes, even the strongest players will keep fighting just to stand still.

Opinion

Groan to Glory: The Leader’s Sacred Journey of Unlocking Possibilities

Published

7 days ago

November 1, 2025

Eric

By Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD

“Leadership is the sacred stewardship of the groan—the courage to lean into the tension of today to midwife the glory of tomorrow for people, corporations, and nations” – Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD

Introduction: The Universal Sound of Growth

If you have ever led anything—a team, a project, a family, a company, or even a personal dream—you are intimately familiar with the sound. It is not a scream of terror, nor a shout of victory. It is something deeper, more primordial. It is the groan.

It is the late-night sigh over a spreadsheet that refuses to balance. It is the fervent debate in a boardroom about a risky new direction. It is the quiet frustration of a community leader facing systemic injustice. It is the personal cost of upholding integrity when compromise would be easier.

For too long, we have mislabeled this groan as failure, burnout, or a sign to quit. But what if we have it all wrong? What if the groan is not the signal of an ending, but the essential, non-negotiable birth pang of a new beginning?

This profound leadership pattern is revealed in the ancient text of Romans 8:18: “For I consider that the sufferings of this present time are not worth comparing with the glory that is to be revealed to us.”

This passage reframes our struggle. The “groan” is the present suffering; the “glory” is the future revealed. The space between them is where true leadership lives. This is not a passive hope, but an active, gritty, and strategic journey of midwifing possibility into reality for people, corporations, and nations—all as an act of stewardship to God Almighty.

Part 1: Deconstructing “The Groan” – The Leadership Crucible

The groan is the pressure that forms the pearl. It is the tension between vision and current reality. For a leader, ignoring the groan is negligence; understanding it is wisdom; and navigating it is mastery.

A. The Personal Groan: The Weight of the Self
Before we lead others, we must lead ourselves, and this is where the first groans are heard.

· The Groan of Discipline: The 5 a.m. alarm to invest in personal development when comfort beckons.

· The Groan of Failure: The sting of a missed opportunity or a flawed decision that becomes the crucible of resilience.

· The Groan of Loneliness: The burden of confidential decisions that cannot be shared, borne alone in the quiet of one’s office.

· The Glory: This personal groan forges character, wisdom, and resilience. The leader emerges not just smarter, but wiser; not just skilled, but grounded. They become a source of stability for others because they have been refined in their own fire.

B. The Organizational Groan: The Birth Pangs of Innovation
Corporations and institutions do not transform through comfort. They evolve through necessary, and often painful, strain.

· The Groan of Innovation: The financial drain and uncertainty of R&D, where countless ideas die so that one might change the world.

· The Groan of Restructuring: The difficult, people-centric process of dismantling outdated systems to build more agile, future-proof models.

· The Groan of Cultural Shift: The exhausting, long-term work of rooting out toxicity and fostering a culture of trust, accountability, and empowerment.

· The Glory: This organizational groan yields market leadership, sustainable profitability, and a legacy brand. The company transitions from being a mere participant in the market to a shaper of it, creating products and cultures that define excellence.

C. The Societal Groan: The Labor Pains of a Nation
The most complex groans are those of nations and communities. They are collective, historic, and deeply felt.

· The Groan of Justice: The relentless, multi-generational struggle against corruption, inequality, and systemic oppression.

· The Groan of Reform: The short-term political and economic pain endured for long-term national benefit—be it in education, infrastructure, or economic policy.

· The Groan of Unity: The challenging work of forging a common identity and shared purpose out of diverse, and often divided, peoples.

· The Glory: This societal groan builds prosperous, just, and stable nations. It results in a legacy of peace, a high quality of life, and a society where human potential can flourish for generations to come.

Part 2: The Global Landscape: Groans Heard Around the World

This “Groan to Glory” framework is not theoretical; it is actively unfolding on the global stage.

· Local Context (Example: A Community Leader): A small-town mayor groans under the weight of a dying main street and youth exodus. The “glory” is not achieved by a single grant, but through the grueling work of rallying local businesses, attracting new investment, and revitalizing community pride—a glory seen in a thriving, vibrant town a decade later.

· Corporate Context (Example: The Tech Industry): The entire tech sector is in a prolonged “groan” over ethical AI. The tension between breakneck innovation and societal safety is immense. The “glory” will belong to the leaders and corporations who navigate this groan successfully, establishing a new paradigm for responsible and transformative technology.

· Global Context (Example: The Energy Transition): Nations worldwide are groaning through the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. This involves economic disruption, geopolitical shifts, and technological hurdles. The “glory” will be a sustainable planet, energy independence, and new frontiers of economic opportunity for those nations that lead the way.

Part 3: The Leader as a Midwife of Glory: A Sacred Stewardship

Our role as leaders in every sector is not to avoid the groan, but to lean into it with purpose and perspective. We are, in the most sacred sense, midwives of possibilities.

Our core function is to “deliver possibilities.” This means:

1. Seeing the Potential: Visioneering the “glory” hidden within the present struggle.

2. Creating the Space: Building cultures and systems where the groan is acknowledged as part of the process, not a sign of failure.

3. Providing the Resources: Equipping our people and our organizations with the tools, trust, and time to persevere.

4. Guiding the Process: Steering the tension with wisdom, making the tough calls, and protecting the vision from short-sighted compromises.

And all of this is “to the glory of God Almighty.”

This is the ultimate “Why” that redefines success. When we lead with this mindset:

· Our ambition is purified. Success is no longer about our ego but about our stewardship. The thriving corporation becomes a testament to God’s principles of order, creativity, and excellence.

· Our endurance is fortified. Knowing that our labor in the Lord is not in vain (1 Corinthians 15:58) provides a resilience that worldly motivation cannot match.

· Our legacy is eternal. The “glory” we help reveal—a transformed life, a righteous organization, and a flourishing nation—becomes part of a story far bigger than our own.

Conclusion: Embracing the Sacred Tension

The journey from groan to glory is not a straight line. It is a cycle, a spiral of continuous growth and challenge. The glory of one achievement simply reveals the next horizon, and with it, a new, necessary groan.

Do not despise the groan. Do not fear it. Name it. Honor it. Lead through it.

For it is in this sacred tension that true leadership is forged. It is here that we partner with the Divine in the holy work of unlocking the God-given possibilities buried within our people, our organizations, and our nations.

The world is waiting for leaders who are not afraid to groan, for they are the only ones who will ever truly see the glory.

Let us lead accordingly.

Dr. Tolulope A. Adegoke, AMBP-UN is a Recipient of the Nigerian Role Models Award (2024), and a Distinguished Ambassador For World Peace (AMBP-UN). He has also gained inclusion in the prestigious compendium, “Nigeria @65: Leaders of Distinction”.