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Nigeria’s External Debt Rises to $40bn Under Buhari

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Nigeria’s total external debt has risen from $10.32bn on June 30, 2015, to $40.06bn as at June 30, 2022, according to The Punch.

This shows that there has been an increase of 288.18 per cent in seven years, according to the external debt stock reports by the Debt Management Office.

A breakdown shows that in 2015, 36 states had $3.27bn external debt while the Federal Government had $7.05bn.

By 2022, states’ external debt rose to $4.56bn, while the Federal Government’s external debt increased to $35.5bn.

The debts included loans from multilateral sources such as the World Bank, the African Development Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

They also included bilateral loans from China, France, Japan, Germany and India, as well as commercial sources including Eurobonds and Diaspora bonds.

Nigeria’s external debt ballooned as the naira lost value, increasing Nigeria’s debt service burden and worsening its ability to service debt. The International Monetary Fund recently said that the long-term rate of the depreciation of the naira equated to a loss of 10.6 per cent of its value annually since 1973.

According to the IMF, this rate was 1.5 times higher than the long-term rate of the currencies of other emerging markets and developing economies at 7.2 per cent and sub-Saharan Africa at seven per cent over the same time period.

The IMF said, “Its exchange rate underwent more persistent depreciation. Nigeria’s long-term rate of currency depreciation (on average 10.6 per cent annually since 1973) was 1.5 times higher than both EMDE (7.2 per cent) and SSA (seven per cent). Given limited availability of long-term data, it is difficult to estimate the exact reasons.”

The Bank of America recently said Nigeria’s local currency unit was set to weaken further next year as its current exchange rate to the dollar was well above fair value.

According to a report by Bloomberg, the bank said, “Three indicators, the widely-used black-market rate, the central bank’s real effective exchange rate, and our own currency fair value analysis shows the naira is 20 per cent overvalued.

“We see scope for it to weaken by an equivalent amount over the next six-nine months, taking it to as high as 520 per USD.”

During a workshop on tax expenditure organised by the ECOWAS Commission in Abuja, financial experts advised that Nigeria and other West African Countries should move away from reliance on foreign assistance to the financing of developmental projects in the region.

According to them, over-dependence on financial aid and external loans might affect long-term prosperity of the entire region.

The Special Advisor to the Director (Custom Union and Taxation in ECOWAS), Gbenga Falana, while emphasising that the debt profile of most of the countries in the sub-region was mounting, stressed the need for West African countries to look inwardly and finance local projects through effective domestic resource mobilisation.

Reacting, the Managing Director/Chief Executive Officer of Cowry Asset Management Limited, Mr Johnson Chukwu, said that high external debt would impose a huge debt service on the economy.

He said, “This will impose a huge debt service on the economy, particularly at a period when we have low revenue from oil sales. If the revenue from oil sales does not improve, then the government will be struggling to meet that debt service obligation to foreign lenders.”

However, he noted that Nigeria could service its foreign debt at the current level, but a constant increase in debt without a corresponding increase in foreign currency earnings could put the country in a difficult position.

The Punch

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Economy

Tinubu Seeks World Bank Support to Boost Agriculture, Economic Reforms

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President Bola Tinubu has called on the World Bank to support Nigeria’s ongoing economic reforms, with a focus on agriculture, youth employment, and private sector growth, as part of his administration’s strategy to strengthen the economy and expand opportunities for the citizens.

The president made the remarks on Tuesday while receiving a delegation from the World Bank led by Anna Bjerde, Managing Director of Operations, at the State House, Abuja.

“Since we went into this tunnel of reform, we have our hands on the power and we’re never going to look back. Initially, it was painful and difficult, but those who win are not the ones who give up in difficult times,” Tinubu said.

The president highlighted the importance of mechanization and modernization of agriculture to increase productivity and create opportunities for Nigeria’s large young population.

“We have mechanization centers to help farmers with improved seedlings and fertilizers to enhance their programs. The goal is to move farmers from small-scale holders to large cooperatives that can create opportunities for Nigerians,” he explained.

Tinubu also pointed to the petrochemical sector and other domestic industries as areas where the government is working to improve outputs and strengthen local markets. He stressed that reforms are continuous and must be grounded in transparency, accountability, and stability.

“The first reaction to reforms was high inflation, but it has come down dramatically, and the Naira is now stable. We want to help investors operate with ease, reduce bureaucracy, and develop the skills of our people,” he said.

Anna Bjerde commended Tinubu’s administration for its consistent and steady approach to reforms over the past two years. She highlighted that Nigeria has become a global example of reform implementation, giving confidence to investors and policymakers worldwide. “The results achieved in the last two years are commendable. Your steady communication of the importance of reforms has given confidence and clarity, and there is no turning back,” Bjerde said.

She emphasized the importance of job creation, particularly for Nigeria’s youth, noting that Africa’s young population is growing rapidly and that SMEs are central to employment generation.

“Agriculture is a huge part of the economy and a major employer. Innovations in mechanization, cooperatives, value-chain development, and infrastructure can be scaled to create more opportunities,” Bjerde said.

She also highlighted the World Bank’s financial support for Nigeria, including public sector financing of $17 billion, private sector support of $5 billion through the IFC, and investment guarantees exceeding $500 million. These instruments are aligned with Nigeria’s reforms, including trade, digital initiatives, and inflation management, to stimulate private sector growth and human development.

“We want to work with Nigeria to accelerate growth, improve access to finance for SMEs, and support early childhood development as part of a comprehensive human development strategy,” she added.

The meeting underscored Nigeria’s push to attract foreign support for strategic reforms, particularly in sectors that directly affect youth employment, food security, and overall economic growth.

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Economy

New Tax Laws: Presidential Committee Tackles KPMG over Criticisms of ‘Gaps’, ‘Errors’ and ‘Omissions’

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The Chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, Taiwo Oyedele, has pushed back strongly against observations by KPMG on Nigeria’s new tax laws, saying the firm largely misunderstood the policy intent and misrepresented deliberate reform choices.

In a detailed statement shared on Saturday on X, Oyedele said the committee welcomed constructive feedback but argued that most of KPMG’s claims were flawed. “We welcome all perspectives that contribute to a shared understanding and successful implementation of the new tax laws,” he said. However, he added that “the majority of the publication reflected a misunderstanding of the policy intent, a mischaracterisation of deliberate policy choices, and, in several instances, repetitions and presentation of opinion and preferences as facts.”

According to Oyedele, several issues described by KPMG as errors or gaps were either based on “the firm’s own errors and invalid conclusions” or stemmed from “issues not properly understood by the firm.” He stressed that policy disagreements should not be framed as technical mistakes.

Addressing concerns about the taxation of shares and potential stock market sell offs, Oyedele said such fears were unfounded. “The fact is that the applicable tax rate on share gains is not a flat 30%,” he said, noting that “a significant majority of investors (99%) are entitled to unconditional exemption.” He added that market performance at an all time high showed investors understood the reforms.

On the commencement date of the new laws, Oyedele dismissed KPMG’s suggestion of aligning reforms strictly with accounting periods, describing it as “a narrow view of the complex transition issues” involved in wholesale tax reform.

He also defended provisions on indirect transfer of shares, saying they were aligned with global best practices. “The assertion that it may affect the country’s economic stability is disingenuous,” he said, explaining that the measure was designed to block long exploited tax loopholes.

Responding to claims of gaps in VAT exemptions, Oyedele said a specific exemption for insurance premiums was unnecessary. “If it is not broken, don’t fix it,” he stated, arguing that insurance premiums were not taxable supplies under existing law.

Oyedele further criticised proposals he said would undermine reform objectives, including calls to exempt foreign insurance companies from tax and allow deductions tied to parallel market foreign exchange. He said disallowing such deductions was “a critical fiscal policy choice designed to complement monetary policy, strengthen, and stabilise the Naira.”

On personal income tax, Oyedele rejected claims that higher rates would harm growth. He said the top marginal rate was competitive globally and ensured fairness without discouraging investment.

He also accused KPMG of factual errors, including references to the Police Trust Fund, noting that its taxing provisions expired in June 2025. “KPMG’s point that the new tax law should be amended to repeal the taxing section of the Police Trust Fund Act is needless,” he said.

While acknowledging clerical issues may arise in any major reform, Oyedele said these were already being addressed internally. He urged stakeholders to engage constructively. “We urge all stakeholders to pivot from a static critique to a dynamic engagement model,” he said, stressing that the reforms marked “a bold step toward a self sustaining and competitive Nigeria.”

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Economy

NANS Makes U-turn, Cancels Planned Nationwide Protest over Implementation of New Tax Laws

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The National Association of Nigerian Students (NANS) has expressed support for the recently enacted Tax Reform Laws, describing it as a well-intentioned fiscal policy aimed at strengthening Nigeria’s economy and protecting low-income earners.

Reports said the endorsement followed extensive deliberations at the maiden Expanded National Executive Council (ENEC) meeting of NANS under the theme; “National Executive Council and Structural Stakeholders’ Forum 2026 on the Tax Reform Act”, which brought together student leaders, policy experts, and key stakeholders from across the country.

The meeting, held amid public debate and controversy over the new tax law, was attended by members of the NANS National Executive Council, leaders of NAUS, NAPS, and NANCES, zonal coordinators, joint campus council chairpersons, female student associations, and other stakeholders.

Earlier concerns had prompted NANS to issue a 14-day ultimatum, threatening nationwide protests if implementation of the law was not suspended pending further investigations and public enlightenment.

However, following engagements with the National Assembly, the Department of State Services (DSS), and the Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS), as well as the publication of the National Assembly’s investigation report, student leaders reported being better briefed on the objectives and safeguards embedded in the law.

Chairman of the Communiqué Drafting Committee and NANS President, Comr. Olushola Oladoja, said students were satisfied with the explanations provided by the government. Tax experts from FIRS used the forum to clarify grey areas and respond to concerns raised by Nigerians, giving student leaders a clearer understanding of the reform’s intent and framework.

At the end of the meeting, ENEC resolved that the Tax Reform Law is designed to improve revenue generation, ensure fairness in taxation, and strengthen social protection for vulnerable citizens, while requiring higher-income earners to contribute more equitably. The council affirmed the authenticity of the law as released by the National Assembly and announced the cancellation of the nationwide protest that had been scheduled for January 14, 2025.

NANS also pledged to serve as ambassadors of public enlightenment, committing to educate Nigerians on the purpose and benefits of the reform to boost public confidence during its implementation.

The meeting further passed a vote of confidence in the former FIRS Chairman, Zacch Adedeji and commended President Bola Tinubu for his fiscal reforms and the NELFUND initiative, reaffirming support for his administration’s economic transformation agenda.

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