Opinion
The Oracle: See How President Buhari Turned Me to a Nostradamus, Clairvoyant (Pt. 2)
Published
9 months agoon
By
Eric
By Mike Ozekhome
INTRODUCTION
Last week, I explored the above topic. I recalled my earlier writes-up advising Buhari on how he would re-engineer and re-invent the bent wheels of the Nigerian Nation. The present write-up is a mere rehash of reminiscences of what I had written and predicted as far back as 19th July, 2015, just only after 50 days of Buhari’s tenure! Nigerians had expected PMB to hit the ground running.They wanted him to be, not just a mere magician in the mould of Professor Peller, but also a miracle worker in the mould of Chris Oyakhilomen, all rolled into one. The stakes were very high based on Buhari and APC’s promises during the campaigns. They are higher today after his unexpected disastrous performance (see: https://thestreetjournal.org/is-president-buhari-overwhelmed-by-serious-issues-of-governance-by-chief-mike-ozekhome-san/ ). Now, continue reading what I wrote as far back as 29th July, 2015:
“THE ANTI-CLIMAX
“However, barely 50 days into PMB’s administration, Nigerians (read the print and social media, watch TV analysis and columnists’ opinions), are beginning to ask many questions. Were their hopes misplaced? Were they hallucinating? Are they in a state of somnambulism, or having feverish nightmares? Reasons? They cannot see signs of the promised “change”. Nigerians are not the most patient people on earth. They love quick-fix-it attack on issues, with “immediate effect and automatic alacrity”. Nigerians cuddle panache, glamour, colour, razzmatazz, and the fanciful.
“They even love the drama of actions, even if merely playing to the gallery. They yearn for populist actions, the type of IBB when he rejected the IMF, even though he later forced down their unwilling throats, the bitter pill of structural adjustment programme (SAP). Nigerians are seeing an anti-climax. And they are surprised and deflated. Was this the change they voted for? They are wondering!
“PMB’s MANY MISSTEPS, THE FAUX PAS
“When he took the oath of office on 29th May, 2015, PMB made one of the most memorable quotes of the century of “I belong to everybody and I belong to no one”. Some placed it in the pantheon of Murtala Mohammed’s great speech, “Africa has come of Age”, delivered on 11th January, 1976, at the OAU extraordinary meeting, warning the West, including America’s Gerald Ford, to keep off the internal affairs of Africa, while castigating the evils of apartheid.
“After this great outing, most Nigerians expected a national broadcast as to the thrust and policy direction of his government. None came. None has come till date. Only haphazard, piecemeal, fire brigade statements on sundry issues, at sundry occasions. No rhythm, no rhyme, no clear message. PMB, are you hearing me Sir?
“THE FIRST APPOINTMENTS – A MISSTEP
“Then, came the first two appointments. First, Mr Femi Adesina (erstwhile President, appointed Special Adviser on Media Affairs (SA). Then the shocker: Mallam Garba Shehu introduced duplicity with his appointment as Senior Special Assistant (SSA), for the same media job. Many Nigerians wondered why the duplication, for any of both gentlemen were eminently qualified to serve as his spokes-person, Shehu having also been a past president of NGE. “Where was the cut in government spending?”, they wondered. Nigerians queried why, at least, there was no pretence at making Garba an SSA on Communications and Strategy. Just something different. Why regurgitate PDP and GEJ’s Ruben Abati, Doyin Okupe and Ahmed Gulak? Where was the change, with both spokespersons already publicly contradicting each other?
“PMB’s OTHER SHOCKING APPOINTMENTS THAT LATER FOLLOWED
“If Nigerians were taken aback by the disingenuousness in the appointment of Adesina and Shehu, they were shocked to their bones and marrows with the next seven appointments made, all from the Northern geopolitical zones of the country. Wait for it…
Lt Col. Muhammed Abubakar (ADC) from Kano, North West. For engaging in a supremacy battle with this chosen one, Mr Abdulrahma Mani, another Northerner, was fired. The next is Lawal Kazaure, State Chief of Protocol (North), Ahmed Idris (Accountant General, Kano state, North West); Mordecai Baba Ladan (North West), and Mrs Amina Zakari (from Kazaure, Jigawa state, North West, as Acting Chairman of INEC).
“Never mind that in sections 153, 154, 155, 156 and 157 of the 1999 constitution, there is no provision for “Acting Chairman”; but a Chairman before whose appointment, the President, under sections 154 (1) and (2), must “consult with the Council of States” and the Senate must confirm.
“Finally, Lawal Daura (from Daura, PMB’s home town, North West), was appointed Director General of the State Security Service (DSS). Ita Ekpeyong from Cross River state was made to kiss the dust to pave way for Daura.
“Thus, of nine appointments so far made by PMB, eight are from the Northern parts of the country, leaving the entire Southern parts with only Femi Adesina (South West). Many are wondering whether this is a carefully crafted odeon of Northernisation of the Government of the Federation. Nigerians are aghast.
“NON APPOINTMENT OF MINISTERS
“Section 147 of the 1999 Constitution provides for the appointment of Ministers by the President, subject to confirmation by the Senate. The word “shall” which enjoins a mandate, is carefully and advisedly used by the makers of the Constitution. There shall be at least one Minister from each of the 36 states of Nigeria, with one from the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja.
“The Ministers are to help the President discharge the duties of his office effectively. It is said that even God himself, as Almighty, Omniscient and Omnipresent as He is, still requires the assistance of Angels and Saints. Not so for PMB. Well over one and a half months after his appointment and well over three months after he became aware he had been elected President of Nigeria when GEJ conceded defeat and congratulated him, PMB is still without Ministers, operating alone, like a lone ranger, in the mould of a Military dictator. His slow, nay sluggish pace, has become worrisome to most Nigerians.
“Commenting on his lack lustre performance within the first 30 days in office, especially on the non-appointment of Ministers, an economist, at Capital Economics, London, Mr John Ashbourne said:
“Every week that Nigeria goes without a Cabinet increases the chance that it will face a dangerous shock – whether a revenue collapse or a currency crisis…leaving the Federation without a Finance Minister would be a questionable choice at the best of times; doing so during a period of economic instability is difficult to explain.”
“Nigeria Labour Congress President, Comrade Ayuba Wabba, who admitted that 30 days was too short to assess PMB’s performance, had however, declared that Buhari was yet to face the realities on the ground. He argued that the slow pace of the administration (one month after being declared the winner of the Presidential election on March 28), was a pointer to the fact that the President was yet to acquaint himself with the situation on the ground.
“A RETURN OF THE OLD ORDER
“As captured by Vanguard Online of June 22, 2015, in an article written by veteran Eric Teniola, a former Director in the Presidency, he graphically captured the return to the old order of lone ranging, thus:
“FROM January 15, 1966 till June 3, 1967, Nigeria had no Ministers. That is a period of over fifteen months. The two military rulers who ruled during that period——Major General Johnson Thomas Umanakwe AguiyiIronsi (1924-1966) and General Yakubu Dan-Yuma Gowon (80) constituted permanent secretaries as members of the Federal Executives Councils.
“As for General Ironsi, the following were appointed—Mr. Ige (Agriculture and Natural Resources), C.O. Lawson (Communications), Alhaji Musa Daggash (Defense), Allison Ayida (Economic Development), S.S. Waniko (Education),T. Eneli (Establishments), Edwin O. Ogbu (External Affairs), Abdul Aziz Atta(Finance), B.N. Okagbue (Health), Phillip Asiodu (Industries), Grey Eronmosele Longe (Information), Alhaji A. Mora (Internal Affairs), M.A. Tokunbo (Labour and Welfare), H.A. Ejeyuitchie (Mines and Power), Alhaji Abdulrahman Howeidy (Special Duties-Internal Affairs), Alhaji Sule Kolo(Trade), H.O. Omenai (Transport), S.O. Williams (Works and Housing), Alhaji Sule Katagum (Chairman of the Federal Public Service Commission-Civil Service, A.E. Howson-Wright (Chairman of the Nigerian Railway Corporation, A.I. Obiyan(Chairman of the Nigerian Ports Authority)and the Attorney-General and Minister of Justice, Chief Gabriel Onyiuke.
“There was also the all-powerful Chief Francis Nwokedi, who was Permanent Secretary, Special Duties and of course, Chief Pius Okigbo. Mr. S.O. Wey was in all but name the Secretary to the government.
“As for General Yakubu Gowon we are all aware of his preference for Permanent Secretaries. The Permanent Secretaries were the ones that paved the way for his coming to power on July 29, 1966 during the historic meeting held at Ikeja Cantonment. So for the first ten months of his administration he had no Ministers. He relied heavily on the counsel of Permanent Secretaries and Judges who administered the country.
“They include Sir Adetokunbo Ademola (Chief Justices of the Federation), Alhaji Sule Katagum(the head of the Federal Civil Service Commission),the Solicitor General-Biliaminu Oladiran Kassim. Others are Mr. Phillip Asiodu, Alhaji Ahmed Joda, Mr.Eneli, Mr. B.N. Okagbue, Mr. Allison Ayida, Mr. Phillip Asiodu, Alhaji Abdul Aziz Atta, Mr. Buba Ardo who later became Supreme Court Judge, Alhaji Musa Daggash, Prince Festus Adesanoye who later became the Osemawe of Ondo and Mr. S.O. Williams. Some of them were referred to later as “super permanent secretaries.” And Mr. S.O. Wey who later became the Secretary to Government. There was also Mr. Ime Ebong who later became Permanent Secretary, Ministry of National Planning.
“It was not until June 3, 1967 that General Gowon brought eminent Nigerians including Chief Obafemi Awolowo, Chief Joseph Takar, Mallam Aminu Kano, Mr. Wenike Briggs, Alhaji Shehu Shagari, Alhaji Shettima Mongunu, Chief Okoi Arikpo, Chief Anthony Enahoro, Alhaji Femi Okunnu, Chief A.Y. Eke and Chief Edwin Clarke into his cabinet. Chief Obafemi Awolowo left the cabinet in 1971 for personal reasons. He later appointed some Military officers into his cabinet. They include Major General Emmanuel Eyo Ekpo (Agric) and Natural Resources), Brigadier Olusegun Obasanjo (Works and Housing), Brigadier Emmanuel Abisoye (Health), Lt. Col. Ahmadu Alli (Education), Captain OlufemiOlumide (Transport), Brigadier Murtala Muhammed (Communication), Brigadier Henry Adefowope (Labour) Col. Dan Suleiman (Special Duties) and Brigadier Mohammed Shuwa.
“Even then General Gowon did not make them members of the supreme military council yet he allowed the Permanent Secretaries to attend the meetings of the Supreme Military Council as observers. Worse still, Ministers could not pass memo directly to General Gowon. This arrangement created problems between his Ministers and his Permanent Secretaries till he was removed on July 29, 1975.
“Now forty –years after, the same scenario is being played.
“The recent appointment of Alhaji Ahmed Joda as Chairman of transition committee and the submission of his 800-page report to President Muhammadu Buhari is to emphasise that retired and serving civil servants will play key roles in the regime of President Muhammadu Buhari. Even though he is now a turned democrat, the military blood in the President is still alive. I am of the view that the Military trusts the civil servants more than the politicians and the civil servants in turn trust the Military than the politicians. The role to be played by the retired civil servants will become clearer in the months ahead. Let us keep our fingers crossed”.
“I cannot agree more with this intellectual analysis of the challenge at hand. It is a clear and present danger. PMB needs to act swiftly. Very swiftly. (To be continued).
THOUGHT FOR THE WEEK
“A self-fulfilling prophecy is an assumption or prediction that, purely as a result of having been made, cause the expected or predicted event to occur and thus confirms its own ‘accuracy.’” (Paul Watzlawick)
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Opinion
The Oracle: Quo Vadis Interim Government? (Pt. 3)
Published
20 hours agoon
June 2, 2023By
Eric
By Mike Ozekhome
INTRODUCTION
In last week’s episode, we wondered whether Interim govts are coups in disguise; discussed the Nigeria experience with interim Governments; asked ‘What is an interim government?; and examined ‘Factors that necessitate interim Governments’.
In today’s edition, we conclude our discussion of ‘Factors that necessitate interim governments; then look at types of interim Governments and conclude with an assessment of how well interim Governments have worked in our climes such as Afghanistan, Chad and Syria.
FACTORS THAT MAY NECESSITATE INTERIM GOVERNMENTS.
Interim governments do not just spring forth from the blues in normal circumstances. No. The factors and causes would have been there for long – even if dormant and latent. But it is only the ant that hears the whispers of the sand; just as it is only the worm that knows what is buried in the earth. Vigilant Nigerians had seen these signs long ago. Aare Babalola is one of them. I am one of them. My daily write-ups and frequent television appearances wholly attest to this.
The factors which foster the emergence of interim governments include regime collapse, negotiated agreement, special election or international intervention. They may arise at a national or sub national level; and can have a myriad of compositions: national, international or mixed; one party or power-sharing, civilian, military or hybrid. Their mandates range from providing or restoring basic state services, to special tasks such as the preparation of a new Constitution or the introduction of economic reforms. It is in the preparation of a new autochthonous and People-driven Constitution that Babalola’s dissertation is situate.
Examples of such circumstances, as identified by the Institute for Integrated Transitions include an existing regime dealing with crises – such as severe economic problems, a fracture within the ruling elite, or an invigorated opposition which may transform itself into an Interim government to stave off its demise or provide more political space to work towards longer-term recovery or resolution (e.g Spain 1975-1976; Indonesia 1998-1998). Additionally, an international intervention may produce an Interim International Government as a practical means to restart governance after war or dictatorship or a stalled political process (e.g UN Transitional Administration in East Timor 1999-2002). Furthermore, an existing regime and the opposition may reach a peace deal or political settlement, establishing an Interim Government for a specified period (e.g El Salvador 1992-1994; and Nepal 2006-2008).
TYPES OF INTERIM GOVERNMENTS
There is the type of Interim Government where an organized power or force overthrows a sitting government and takes over the leadership of the state. This is different from a coup d’etat strictu sensu, because in this case, the regime taking over is only doing so to manage power temporarily, promising to hand over power, properly and as the law of the land recognizes. Wikipedia.org referred to this kind of interim government as “revolutionary provisional government”. An instance of such interim government would be the case in Chad where when the Head of State died, his son took over government, as against the provisions of the law of the land where the power to lead the state was supposed to devolve on the speaker of the National Assembly. However, Mahamat Idriss Deby in a bid to take over power had to, through the Army, dissolve the government and the National Assembly to ensure that the speaker did not become the Head of State. He however promised to hand over power according to provisions of the law after 18 months, thus making his government an interim/provisional government.
There is the second type of interim government, where there is set up, a new regime of leadership. However, the previous regime still retains the true power. This was the case with Nigeria when General Ibrahim Badamosi Babangida, said that he will “step aside”, not even resign. He did appoint an Interim National Government to usher in a proper government in accordance with the Constitution of Nigeria. General Babangida however retained the Secretary of his government to be the Secretary of the Interim government and the actions of the Interim Government were generally seen to be largely dependent on and not against the interest of General Babangida. Wikipedia.org named this type of Interim government, “Incumbent Provisional Government”.
There is the third type of interim government, where obedience and legitimacy in the state are shared between the incumbent interim regime and a regime trying to take over power. This is the case in Syria where the Interim Government is sharing power with external forces from Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Turkey and Qatar. Wikipedia.org referred to this type of Interim government as “Power Sharing Provisional Government”.
Finally, there is the type of Interim government where the power belongs to and is solely managed by an international body, the international community or an external state. Such was the case with the United States in 1776 during the American Revolutionary War when the Continental Congress, a convention of delegates from 13 British colonies on the east coast of North America served as its interim government until it was replaced in 1789 by the United States Congress. (See https: //en. wikipedia. org/ wiki/ Provisional _ government). Wikipedia.org named this type of interim government as “International Provisional Government”.
HOW WELL HAS INTERIM GOVERNMENTS WORKED IN OTHER CLIMATES?
As at date, South Sudan, Libya, Sudan, Burkina Faso, and Chad in Africa; Afghanistan, Myanmar, Syria, and Yemen in Asia; and Belarus in Europe, are the countries currently under an interim government regime.
Taking the samples of Afghanistan, Chad and Syria, let us analyse how interim governments have performed.
AFGHANISTAN
Matthew Saul in an article, “International Law and the Legitimacy of Interim Governments”, (see page 14; International Law and the Legitimacy of Interim Governments by Matthew Saul, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2715703) – pointed out the issues with the interim government of Afghanistan. He stated thus, “…certainly, the lack of security in Afghanistan has been a major hindrance in the development of a productive public sphere and the government has been keen to justify some of its constraining activity on the security situation. Consider, for instance, the decree that all news agencies ‘refrain from covering incidents of “terrorist activities or movements” between 6 a.m. and 8 p.m. on Election Day,’ a ban enforced by National Directorate of Security (NDS) officials. … This suggests that it might have been a measure that has been motivated by the government trying to sustain its own authority, by reducing knowledge of events that bring into question the credibility of the election process.”
Matthew makes the very disturbing insinuation that interim governments are in an unending struggle to assert and justify their legitimacy. Yes, indeed. Afterall, the fall of a dried leaf is a warning to the green one.
CHAD
As published by Al Jazeera on 20th April, 2021. (See https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/4/20/chads-military-announces-new-interim-government-after-deby-death); and on 13th October, 2022; and (https: //www. africanews. Com /2022 /10/13/chad-new-interimprime-minister-vows-freedoms rights/), in Chad, even as it is today, the government which came into force in the guise of an interim regime to hand over to a Republican government after 18 months, counting from April 2021, is still in force till date. Now the question is, who now has the right, authority, and requisite power at this material time to bring this government to book? Should Chadians not regret ever having this interim regime in the first place? Which rat will now bell the cat? That is the question.
SYRIA
Middleeasteye.net.(Seehttps://www.middleeasteye.net/features/syria-interim-government-waiting) has painted a gloomy picture of the state of Syria under an interim government; just as has Al-monitor.com, they both show a country in serious crisis.
Though the situation in Syria (being a warring country and one with different power blocks exercising real power across divided parts of the country), is to be expected, it is still the case that its Interim Government has not only suffered major oppositions that bring to jeopardy its control of the state, but is also in search of its own legitimacy – the very foundation of a government. A cockroach has never been adjudged innocent in the presence of fowls.
CONCLUSION
The above scenarios have shown that IG is no longer in vogue. But, a final warning for those “politricians” messing up our hard-earned democracy: they must now move swiftly, deliberately, to save this pseudo democracy we are operating and turn it into full-blown democracy. This is because, if a snake chooses to crawl sluggishly like a snail, it will only succeed in making itself food for the hawk.
NOW THIS
It will however be unrealistic in the present circumstances to expect “politricians” (the greatest beneficiaries of the last farcical polls) to commit collective class suicide by acquiescing to that idea. The IG idea will garner little or no traction among this most critical base of those who will lose out. It is not only the political class that will lose out, but also the electorate. As the ENDSARS riots of 2020 clearly showed, Nigeria’s youths have become increasingly restive, enlightened, and audacious in the fight for their rights. Their righteous indignation is palpable. This once-upon-a-time supposed structureless and amorphous segment of the society has become the rejected stone that has ironically formed the cornerstone of our democracy.
The days of taking the youths for granted by corrupt and unpopular governments are clearly over. An IG which they perceive as antithetical to their interests and aspirations might be the needed signal to spark off another round of mass protests, in a way and manner that may dovetail into ponderous chaos and anarchy. Who knows where that might lead us to? The way forward is to overhaul our abused electoral jurisprudence and change the warped mind-set of our desperate “politricians”. The stubborn fly that refuses to hear the voice of its mother usually accompanies the casket into the grave.
The lessons are quite clear to us all. Our elders tell us that if you tell a man a proverb and proceed to interpret it to him, then the dowry paid on his mother’s head becomes a waste. A word is enough for the wise. A stitch in time saves nine. (The end).
FUN TIMES
“Wait ooooo if indomie na fast food, then wetin garri come be?”
THOUGHT FOR WEEK
“The government is us; we are the government, you and I”. (Theodore Roosevelt).
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Opinion
Opinion: Will the Hopes of Nigerians be Truly Renewed?
Published
3 days agoon
May 31, 2023By
Eric
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By Kayode Emola
In less than 48 hours Nigeria will welcome a new President, charged with handling its affairs for the next four years. Yet among the many challenges awaiting the new president, whether Nigeria itself can even survive another four years remains to be seen. There is no doubt that the Tinubu/Shettima presidency will need more than courage to keep Nigeria united for the full duration of their elected term.
Only time will tell whether Tinubu and Shettima will be sworn in come May 29, or whether we will instead have an interim government. However, one thing of which we are certain is that the era of Muhammad Buhari is over, never to be experienced again. Those who have survived living under Buhari’s misrule in Nigeria for the last eight years deserve an award for endurance.
We must not allow the expected swearing-in of a Yoruba man as Nigeria’s president on Monday 29 to make us complacent. Indeed, my Yoruba people, our task has just doubled.
Nigeria’s future is now looking more imperiled than ever before. The Indigenous Peoples of Biafra (IPOB) are already threatening to declare their own independent Biafra nation if Tinubu is sworn in come May 29. And the Biafra campaigners are not the only disgruntled people within the country. The vast majority of our Yoruba people and even the Hausa people are becoming embittered with the trajectory Nigeria has taken since independence. At this point now, the new president must decide if Nigeria will continue as it is, or ask the indigenous people to decide their future.
It is increasingly evident that Nigeria is not a sustainable venture, and that a trading post cannot become a country that can endure the test of time. The people within Nigeria never decided to unite and become a country, so trying to hold them to ransom can never succeed.
I will therefore urge the incoming president to rethink his policies if he has not thought about a peaceful way in which Nigeria’s dissolution can be established. Powering through and hoping that he can hold Nigeria together like his predecessor Buhari did will definitely not stand the test of time.
To my fellow Yoruba people who are singing hallelujah that a Yoruba man is going to be president. I want us to know that just as Buhari is leaving the Presidential seat come Monday 29, Tinubu will also not be president for life. When he leaves what will be the fate of the Yoruba people or the other nationalities that makes up Nigeria.
At this juncture in our history, it would be the time to give the indigenous peoples of Nigerians the opportunity to determine their future in a constitutional conference. Nigeria has gone past its due date and must now be prepared for decommissioning just like several countries such as Yugoslavia, Czechoslovakia, etc has done in the past. If not, a dysfunctional disengagement may lead to utter chaos if not another civil considering the damage the country is currently doing to the lives of millions of frustrated youths. The rate of poverty is not abating with the currency being devalued on a daily basis putting more strain on the people’s finances
The handlers of Nigeria must acknowledge that the unitary system being practiced in Nigeria has utterly failed the people. The people must now be handed a lifeline in order to salvage a future for themselves and their future generations. Anything short of that may mean Nigeria may go the way other African countries such as Somalia and South Sudan etc have divided with years of bitter civil war which has resulted in the loss of millions of innocent lives.
Yoruba people should not shout ‘Uhuru’ yet because one of us is sitting in ‘Aso rock’. If history has thought us anything, whoever becomes president of Nigeria is there for themselves and not necessarily representing their constituents. That Tinubu will be president does not stop the call for an independent Yoruba nation, if anything, the call for an independent Yoruba nation should now become louder and clearer to send a strong signal to the local and international communities that the Yoruba people have finally made up their mind to leave Nigeria.
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