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Opinion: NBA vs Nasir El-Rufai

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By Reuben Abati

I admire Nasir el-Rufai, the Governor of Kaduna State for his intellectual abilities and what he has been able to achieve within the public space, but I am not his fan.  I have had two rather disturbing encounters with him. The first I would overlook because at the time, I thought he spoke out of plain honesty. But there was a second encounter that I have never been able to get out of my mind. Sometime in 2013, I had taken permission from President Goodluck Jonathan to stay back in London for a few days to sort out some personal matters. The request was granted. The Presidential delegation returned to Abuja without me. A few days later on my way back home, aboard British Airways, guess who I ran into as I tried to settle down: Nasir el-Rufai.  I was so excited to see him. He had just then published his impressive memoir: The Accidental Public Servant (Safari Books, 2013, 627pp.) I rushed to meet him and enthusiastically told him that I had read his book and that I was impressed. I congratulated him. He was busy putting his hand luggage in the overhead compartment. As soon as he was done with that, he turned towards me and bellowed: 

“Abati, you are calling us yesterday’s men eh? Very soon, you too will be a yesterday man. When we become today’s people, we will show you what it means to be a yesterday man!”. 

He didn’t respond to my compliments about his book. The scowl on his face was enough to frighten a lion. I was so confounded, I simply walked back to my seat. I kept to my lane throughout the trip. I was Nigeria’s Presidential spokesman at the time. Indeed, I had written a piece titled “The Hypocrisy of Yesterday’s Men” (February 3, 2013). I wrote in defence of my boss: “A loosely bound group of yesterday’s men and women seems to be on the offensive against the Jonathan administration.  They pick issues with virtually every effort of the administration, pretending to do so in the public interest; positing that they alone, know it all. Arrogantly, they claim to be better and smarter than everyone else in the current government. They are ever so censorious, contrarian and supercilious. They have no original claim to their pretensions other than that they were privileged to have been in the corridors of power once upon a time in their lives. They obviously got so engrossed with their own sense of importance they began to imagine themselves indispensable to Nigeria. It is dangerous to have such a navel-gazing, narcissistic group inflict themselves with so much ferocity on an otherwise impressionable public. We are in reality dealing with a bunch of hypocrites.”

I went further: “With exceptions so few, they really don’t care about Nigeria as a sovereign but the political spoils that accrue from it.  And so they will stop at nothing to discredit those they think are not as deserving as they imagine themselves to be. President Jonathan has unfairly become the target of their pitiable frustrations. They mask self-interest motives as public causes and manipulate the public’s desire for improvements in their daily struggles as opportunity for power grab…”  I didn’t mention anyone directly. But I recall Femi Fani-Kayode, my friend, brother and associate, long before the Jonathan years, was the only other person who attacked me around the period. I had made another comment and Fani-Kayode promptly retorted that Reuben Abati could only have said whatever he said because he was the product of a same-sex marriage.

The same Femi Fani-Kayode would later realize his own hypocrisy. He eventually abandoned the company of hypocrites and aligned with the Jonathan government. He in fact led Presidential Jonathan’s second-term campaign as strategist and campaign spokesperson. Nasir el-Rufai was one of those who never took the Road to Damascus. In my 2013 essay, I did not mention his name. I gave examples including that of some Quantity Surveyors who needed to return to their professions and desist from turning Nigeria, after a spell in public office, into a meal ticket. Nasir el-Rufai is a Quantity Surveyor. He obviously assumed that the innuendo was directed at him. He took it personal. But on the spur of the moment, I couldn’t think up a justification for his attitude towards me. His arrogance. His malicious conduct. I have a big ego myself. But Nasir el-Rufai’s ego is taller than the tallest building in the world. He has had a brilliant public career, and he is one of our brightest, but his public persona is that he is completely undiplomatic. There is nobody he cannot abuse. There is no harsh phrase that he cannot utter. His critics insist that he respects nobody, fears nobody, and yet everyone wonders what feeds his ego. What is it based on? In his days as Minister of the Federal Territory, he demolished people’s houses at will. He fought the National Assembly. I will rate him as the best Minster of the FCT so far though, even if he went about his job in a very tactless manner. 

As Governor of Kaduna State, he has also shown the same lack of tact and diplomacy. We are dealing with hubris it seems. In his public career since President Olusegun Obasanjo discovered him in 1999 and brought him aboard Nigeria’s big stage, Nasir el-Rufai has consistently acquired a public persona as an intolerant public servant, and a perpetual accident. In Kaduna state which he presides over, anybody that criticizes him in any way, is most likely to be slammed with a legal suit and detained. He has fought Shiites. He has abused the leaders of Southern Kaduna. He is said to be above the courts of the land because he does not respect their orders. One Bishop had the temerity to prophesy that he, El-Rufai will never be President of Nigeria, the Bishop is now in court to respond to charges of criminal defamation for daring to prophesy that the Almighty Nasir El-Rufai will never be “President of Nigeria”.

This piece is titled “NBA vs Nasir el-Rufai”. My simple point in that regard which is the main thrust of this piece is that Nasir el-Rufai is in part, the victim of his own hubris. He has lessons to learn from his current travails and I hope that he will soon be on the Road to Damascus.  But at the same time, I think the joke is on the NBA, not el-Rufai. Paul Usoro, the outgoing President of the Nigerian Bar Association has handled the el-Rufai matter in a most embarrassing, cowardly and disgraceful manner. Nasir el-Rufai was invited by the Technical Conference Planning Committee (TCCP) of the NBA as a keynote Speaker at the Annual General Conference of the NBA 2020. The theme is “STEPPING FORWARD” and the question is: “Who is a Nigerian? A Debate on National Identity” (26 -29 August 2020) with a special session focusing on the topic: “Am I a Nigerian – A Debate on National Identity, The Indigeneship-Citizenship Conundrum”. It is a virtual conference, the first in the history of the NBA, in other words, a COVID-19 determined and compliant conference of the NBA, and the 60th Annual General Conference of the body.  

When the Technical Committee for Conference Planning (TCCP) of the NBA decided to invite Nasir el-Rufai as a keynote speaker at this particular session, they must have thought of the fact that more than any other Governor in Nigeria at the moment, he is one Governor who has had to deal with the issue of identity crisis, especially in the Southern part of the state that he governs. Besides, he has the intellectual heft, the analytic skills and the knowledge of the national question being addressed. His ability in these regards is beyond question and he has the confidence to articulate his views in any forum locally and internationally. The Presidential Conference Planning Committee could not have made a better choice. You may not like el-Rufai’s attitude and his lack of tact, but you cannot question his ability as a diligent and first-rate intellect. By uninviting him to the 60th NBA 60thGeneral Conference, the NBA submitted itself to the will of an aggressive and vocal minority in a manner that could affect the future of the NBA negatively. Most of the people who signed the petition against Nasir el-Rufai come across like persons who nurse personal grudges against him and who failed to look at the big picture. The NBA as A.U. Mustapha, SAN has argued convincingly, should not be politicized. It must not be personalized. It must not be used to settle political, ethnic or personal scores. The decision to uninvite Nasir el-Rufai to this year’s NBA conference which commences tomorrow is a major low in the history of the NBA. Targeting one man out of a long list of other persons who have been identified by the Radical Agenda Movement led by Ogunlana Esq. as not necessarily saintly amounts to partiality and institutional malice.

Paul Usoro, the outgoing NBA President has also not handled the matter with wisdom. He has presided over the NBA in one of its lowest moments in the last 60 years. The decision to open up the NBA Annual Conference to non-lawyers and stakeholder communities is one of the major achievements of the last few years, but in a last moment act of indiscretion, Usoro’s NBA has blown that up. The scapegoating of el-Rufai by a group that has had more despicable persons on its list of invitees over the years is an indication of unfairness, injustice and malice by the same persons who claim to defend the rule of law.  The NBA should be an open forum for all ideas to contend and for all persons to enjoy the benefit of fair hearing. With the NBA vs el-Rufai saga, may be the NBA is better off in the future inviting only persons who will tell members what they would like to hear. Even worse and this should be condemned, is the spineless, cheap and pathetic letters of apology written to the Muslim Lawyers Association of Nigeria (MULAN) and the Nigeria Governors’ Forum by Paul Usoro, the NBA President. These were self-serving letters in which Usoro tried to disown the NBA NEC. What kind of cowardly conduct is that? His silly apologies have brought the Usoro Presidency to an ugly end. Coming shortly after he presided over a most controversial NBA Presidential election and a lackluster tenure, Usoro by August 27 will be handing over a divided and troubled NBA. Nasir el-Rufai is not the problem of the NBA. The NBA, turned into a rent-seeking vehicle, is its own problem, and it is sad to see a once dynamic and progressive NBA, reduced to a beggarly body. Was it not under Usoro’s watch that a Chief Justice was disgraced out of office and judges were humiliated? The association faces a leadership crisis that it must resolve and address, especially now that there is a simmering battle between the inner and outer Bar for its soul.

It is not too late to reverse the dis-invitation of Nasir el-Rufai to the 60th NBA AGC.  But he can take sufficient solace in the fact that he is not the problem. His travail with the NBA is only an indication of a problem within the NBA itself. Olumide Akpata’s emergence as NBA President is seen as the triumph of the young Turks within the NBA, that is the Outer Bar. Nasir el-Rufai is just a convenient pawn in an existing conflict. We should, therefore, look farther into the future. Olumide Akpata who by next week would have assumed office, has his job cut out for him. He has to unite a divided House. He must also restore confidence in the Bar. He will either take charge or cede control to a vocal, aluta continua group within the NBA that has shown its hands rather early with the objection to Nasir el-Rufai. The radical elements within the NBA must focus on larger issues beyond the politics of malice and personality. The NBA  is in urgent need of reform.

Herbert Wigwe and Access Bank

I got a call about a week ago informing me that it was the birthday of Herbert Wigwe, the CEO of Access Bank and it would be nice to drink up on his behalf, thank the Almighty and shame the Devil as it were. Since the easing of the lockdown, boys have been looking for every opportunity to return to the old normal. I declined. I resist temptations to defy COVID-19; for, even more careful persons have fallen victim. 

In normal times, I would have jumped at an opportunity to celebrate Herbert Wigwe who is certainly one of the biggest revelations in Nigeria’s banking industry in this century. When he took over the leadership of Access Bank, the Bank was no. 5. Today, that bank is No. 1 in terms of share capital, loans, deposits, reach and customer satisfaction. In April 2019, under Wigwe’s watch, Access Bank merged with Diamond Bank and became the largest bank in Africa. Wigwe has shown a capacity to control and transform every storm that comes the way of the bank. There is no doubt that he is leading Access bank in the right direction. He and his brother, Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede, both co-founders of Access Bank, remind me of Fola Adeola and Tayo Aderinokun who both built GT Bank into a global brand.

At a time when Nigeria’s reputation is being rubbished by the likes of Hushpuppy and Woodberry and the 419 gang, Herbert Wigwe and his team give Nigeria great hopes. He is a role model for the younger generation. Today, Access Bank is not just a Tier-I Bank, it has branches across Africa which provide jobs for millions across the continent. And yet Wigwe is just 54. He is in addition, Chairman of Nigeria’s Bankers’ Committee. A high-achieving brother like him truly deserves a drink and a salute. The organisers should please invite me next year when, hopefully, our lives would have become normal again. In the meantime, many happy returns Herbert. May your days be long.

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Opinion

A Vindicating Truth: A Factual Presentation on the Supreme Court’s Intervention in the ADC Leadership Matter

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By Comrade IG Wala

To All Nigerians, Party Stakeholders, and Lovers of Democracy,

In the life of every great political movement, there comes a moment where the noise of confusion meets the silence of the Law. For the African Democratic Congress (ADC), that moment arrived on April 30, 2026.

For months, the ADC was held in a state of judicial paralysis caused by a lower court order that froze the party’s activities. This order did not just affect a few leaders, it threatened to delete the ADC from the Nigerian political map and disenfranchise millions of supporters ahead of the 2027 General Elections.

Today, we present the facts of the Supreme Court’s intervention to ensure that every Nigerian, from the city centers to the grassroots, understands that Justice has spoken, and the ADC is alive.

The Three Pillars of the Supreme Court’s Ruling:

1. The End of Paralysis (The Status Quo Order)!

The Supreme Court, led by Justice Mohammed Garba, was clear and firm: the Court of Appeal’s order to maintain a “status quo” was improper and unwarranted. The apex court recognized that you cannot freeze a political party indefinitely without a trial. By setting this aside, the Supreme Court rescued the ADC from a leadership vacuum that was being used to justify de-recognition by INEC.

2. The Restoration of Administrative Legitimacy.

By nullifying the appellate court’s freeze, the Supreme Court effectively restored the David Mark-led National Working Committee to its rightful place. This means that for all official, administrative, and electoral purposes, the ADC now has a recognized head. The party is no longer a ship without a captain; the doors of the headquarters are open, and the party’s name remains firmly on the ballot.

3. The Order for a Fresh Trial on Merits.

True to the principles of fair hearing, the Supreme Court did not simply gift the party to one side. Instead, it ordered the case back to the Federal High Court for an accelerated hearing. This is a victory for the Truth. It means the court is not interested in technicalities or stopping the clock, it wants to see the evidence, read the Party Constitution, and deliver a final judgment based on the Right vs. Wrong.

Note: I will drop the 7 prayers made to Supreme Court by ADC in the comment section.

A Message to Our Members and Supporters.
To our members who have felt a sense of fear, apprehension, or a lack of confidence in the Nigerian courts, let your hearts be at peace.

It is a delusion to believe that gross injustice can simply walk through the doors of our highest courts unnoticed. This matter is currently one of the most publicized and people-centric cases in Nigeria. In such a bright spotlight, the Judiciary acts not just as a judge, but as a shield for the common man.

The Law is not a tool for the crafty, it is a searchlight for the Truth.
Inasmuch as they say the Law is blind, it sees with perfect clarity the difference between a lie and the truth, between right and wrong. The Supreme Court’s refusal to let the ADC be strangled by procedural delays is proof that the system works for those who stand on the side of justice.

Our confidence is not in personalities, but in the Process. We are returning to the Federal High Court not with fear, but with the armor of Truth.

The Handshake remains strong, the vision is clear, and our participation in the 2027 elections is now legally anchored.

Stand tall. The ADC has been tested by the fire of the courts, and we have emerged not just intact, but vindicated.

Signed,
Comrade, IG Wala.
02/04/26. — with Shareef Kamba and 14 others.

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Opinion

The Police is Your Friend and Other Lies We No Longer Believe

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By Boma Lilian Braide (Esq.)

There was a time in Nigeria when the phrase The Police is Your Friend was not a national joke. It was a civic assurance, a symbolic handshake between the state and its citizens. It represented the ideal of a civil security architecture built on trust, service, and protection. Today, that once reassuring slogan has decayed into a bitter irony. It no longer evokes safety; it provokes fear. It no longer signals partnership; it signals danger. What should have been the soul of Nigerian civil state relations has become a cruel parody of our lived experience at checkpoints, stations, and on the streets.

The Nigerian security apparatus has undergone a transformation so profound that it now resembles a predatory machine rather than a protective institution. The sight of a police patrol vehicle, which should ordinarily bring comfort, now triggers anxiety. Citizens instinctively brace themselves, not for assistance, but for extortion, harassment, or violence. We are not merely witnessing isolated incidents of misconduct. We are watching a pattern of state enabled brutality unfold in real time, a pattern so consistent that it feels like a televised execution of the social contract. In this grim theatre, the Nigerian state often appears not as the protector but as the principal aggressor.

On Sunday, April 26th 2026, the quiet air of Effurun in Delta State was shattered by the crack of a service pistol. What should have been an ordinary Sunday afternoon became the final chapter in the life of twenty-eight year old Mene Ogidi. A viral video, barely two minutes long, captured the horrifying scene. Ogidi sat on the dusty ground, his hands tied behind him with a rope. He was unarmed, exhausted, and pleading in his mother tongue for a chance to explain himself. Standing over him was a man in plain clothes, a man sworn to protect the very life he was about to extinguish. Assistant Superintendent of Police Nuhu Usman raised his pistol and fired two shots at close range into the body of a restrained, helpless citizen.

This was not a confrontation. It was not a crossfire. It was not a struggle for a weapon. It was an execution. A daylight assassination carried out by a state paid officer who felt so insulated by impunity that he performed his violence in front of a digital audience. The collective outrage that followed was not simply about one death. It was the eruption of a nation that has watched this script repeat itself far too many times.

Barely days later, in Dei-Dei Abuja, another life was cut short. A National Youth Service Corps member was shot inside his father’s compound. Authorities described it as a mistake during a crossfire, but the silence that followed spoke louder than any official explanation. These tragedies are not anomalies. They are symptoms of a deep institutional rot, a rot that has turned the badge into a license for violence rather than a symbol of service.

Extrajudicial killings in Nigeria represent a direct assault on the fundamental right to life and the presumption of innocence. When a law enforcement officer assumes the roles of accuser, judge, and executioner, the very foundation of the state begins to crumble. In the case of Mene Ogidi, the Delta State Police Command admitted that the officer acted in gross violation of Force Order 237, the regulation governing the use of firearms. This admission is significant because it reveals that the problem is not the absence of rules. The problem is the collapse of discipline, the erosion of accountability, and the entrenchment of a culture of impunity.

Between 2020 and 2025, Nigerian security agencies were implicated in nearly six hundred violent incidents against civilians, resulting in more than eight hundred deaths. The Nigeria Police Force accounted for over half of these fatalities. These numbers paint a disturbing picture. The institutions funded by taxpayers to provide security have become one of the greatest threats to their safety.

The psychology behind this brutality is rooted in the absence of consequences. When officers believe that nothing will happen after they pull the trigger, the threshold for using lethal force drops to zero. In the Effurun case, reports suggest that the suspect was even transported to a station after the initial shooting, only to be shot again. This level of cruelty reflects a complete dehumanization of the citizenry. The victim is no longer seen as a person with rights. He becomes a disposable suspect. This mindset is a legacy of the defunct SARS unit, whose methods and mentality continue to shape policing culture. Rebranding SARS into SWAT or the Rapid Response Squad means nothing if the same men, trained in the same violent ethos, continue to operate with the same predatory instincts.

The Nigerian police system has evolved from a flawed institution into what many citizens now describe as a state sponsored cartel. The Zero Tolerance mantra often repeated by the Inspector General of Police, Olatunji Disu, has become a public relations slogan that evaporates at every checkpoint. The immediate dismissal and recommended prosecution of ASP Usman and his team may satisfy the public’s immediate hunger for justice, but it does not address the deeper institutional vacuum that allowed an officer to believe he could execute a restrained suspect without consequence. If accountability only occurs when a video goes viral, then we are not being policed. We are being hunted by a uniformed gang that is occasionally caught on camera.

This raises critical questions. Where were the superior officers? Where was the Area Commander while this culture of execution was taking root? Command responsibility in Nigeria remains a myth. Until a Commissioner of Police is removed for the actions of their subordinates, there will be no internal incentive to reform. The decay is structural. We are recruiting frustrated individuals, training them in aggression rather than professionalism, and unleashing them on a population they are conditioned to view with suspicion and contempt.

The mistake narrative used in the Abuja NYSC shooting reflects this tactical incompetence. A professional force does not mistake a youth corper in his bedroom for a combatant. Nigerians are effectively subsidising their own endangerment, paying for the bullets that cut down their brightest young citizens. A nation cannot survive this level of uniformed recklessness. The state has lost its monopoly on violence to its own agents. When police officers fear the citizen’s camera more than they respect the citizen’s life, the system has failed.

Five years after the historic 2020 End SARS protests, the systemic reforms promised by government remain largely unfulfilled. Only a handful of states have implemented the recommendations of the judicial panels or compensated victims. The National Human Rights Commission reported in July 2025 that it had received over three hundred thousand complaints of abuses. This staggering figure reflects the scale of the crisis. While the current Inspector General has introduced new regulations to align the Police Act of 2020 with operational realities, the gap between a gazetted document in Abuja and a patrol team in Delta remains vast.

The solution to this bloodletting must be radical and structural. First, police oversight must be decentralised. Relying on Force Headquarters in Abuja to discipline an officer in a remote community is inefficient and ineffective. Each state should have an independent, citizen led oversight board with the authority to recommend immediate suspension and prosecution without interference from the police hierarchy.

Second, Force Order 237 must be overhauled to strictly limit the use of firearms to situations where there is an immediate and verifiable threat to life. Under no circumstances should a restrained or surrendering suspect be shot.

Third, Nigeria must address the mental health and welfare of police officers. Men who live in dilapidated barracks, earn inadequate wages, and operate under constant stress are more likely to lash out at the public. However, poverty cannot be an excuse for murder. Welfare reform must go hand in hand with strict accountability.

Finally, justice must not only be done but must be seen to be done. The trial of ASP Usman and others like him should be public, transparent, and swift. It must serve as a deterrent that resonates in every police station across the country. The era of secret disciplinary rooms must end. Nigeria must invest in technology driven policing, not only in weapons but in body cameras and digital accountability systems. When officers know they are being recorded, hesitation replaces recklessness.

A NATIONAL CALL TO ACTION

The era of Orderly Room secrecy must end. Nigeria must decentralise police disciplinary trials, moving them from closed sessions in Abuja to open, civilian led inquiries in the states where the abuses occur. A National Firearms Audit is urgently needed. Every officer must account for every round issued, and any missing ammunition should trigger automatic suspension for the entire chain of command.

The National Assembly must fast track the Victims of Police Brutality Trust Fund, ensuring that compensation becomes a legal right funded directly from the budgets of offending commands. Nigeria must stop being a nation of post script outrage. Command responsibility must become law. If an officer under a Commissioner’s watch executes a handcuffed suspect, that Commissioner must lose their job alongside the shooter.

The blood of Mene Ogidi and the NYSC member in Dei Dei is a stain on our national conscience. It is a reminder that as long as one Nigerian can be tied up and shot without trial, no Nigerian is truly safe. Silence is no longer an option. Waiting for the next viral video is no longer acceptable. The time to demand change is now.

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Opinion

Kwankwaso-Obi Anti-Coalition Alliance and the Perception of the North

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By Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba

Let’s not sugarcoat it, what is unfolding is not just political maneuvering for 2027, but a carefully calculated roadmap to 2031. Anyone who believes Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is acting out of patriotism or prioritizing Nigeria above his personal ambition is simply ignoring the pattern before us. His willingness to deputise Peter Obi is not born out of ideological alignment or national interest, it appears to be a strategic move aimed at one target weakening Atiku Abubakar and ensuring he does not emerge as president in 2027.

Kwankwaso’s real calculation seems anchored in 2031. He understands that as long as Atiku remains active and contesting, his own presidential ambition struggles to gain traction, especially in the North where Atiku’s influence remains deeply rooted. By positioning himself in a way that could undermine Atiku now, he potentially clears the path for himself later, when he can conveniently lean on the “it is the turn of the North” narrative with stronger moral leverage. This is not about helping Obi win, it is about ensuring Atiku is completely removed from the equation.

It is also important to state plainly that Kwankwaso is fully aware of his electoral limitations in this arrangement. He knows he cannot significantly attract Northern votes for Obi beyond a few pockets, even within Kano State. And even there, the good people of Kano are far more politically aware and discerning than to be swayed purely by sentiment. This makes the entire proposition even more questionable, if the electoral value is limited, then the intention behind the alliance becomes even clearer. It suggests that even if he joins an Obi ticket, it is not driven by a genuine commitment to Obi, the Igbo, the South-East or Nigeria but by a broader personal calculation.

Northerners must understand that this is a long game, and every move appears deliberately designed. Kwankwaso seems cautious not to overtly confirm growing suspicions that he is working, directly or indirectly, to the advantage of Bola Ahmed Tinubu. Yet, many are beginning to connect the dots. The belief that there is an underlying alignment is gaining ground, especially when actions repeatedly result in one outcome, a divided North that weakens its collective electoral strength, a repeatation of 2023 in a different style. The alignment of Kwankwaso’s political godson and the governor of Kano Abba Kabir Yusuf with Tinubu only fuels this perception, suggesting a dual-front approach: one operating directly and visibly, the other indirectly and subtly.

This is not the first time such a pattern is being observed. Many Northerners still recall similar dynamics from 2023, and recent developments have only intensified the conversation. In fact, within just the last 24 hours, the level of criticism and open dissatisfaction directed at Kwankwaso across Northern Nigeria has been unprecedented. What was once dismissed as mere suspicion of a quiet alliance is now, in the eyes of many, being confirmed by actions seen as disruptive to any meaningful coalition.

For Kwankwaso, this moment carries significant weight. The long-circulating “sellout” label, which many had hesitated to firmly attach, now appears to be finding a resting place in public discourse. Should he once again position himself outside a collective Northern arrangement, that perception may become permanently entrenched.

The implications for the North are serious. Voting Obi because of Kwankwaso, which is unlikely, could fracture an already consolidated political base, reduce its bargaining power, and ultimately produce outcomes that do not reflect its true strength. The North has never historically rejected a dominant figure like Atiku in favor of a subordinate position, nor has it embraced a configuration where its most established candidate is sidelined. The idea that the region would choose Kwankwaso as a deputy while overlooking Atiku as a president is not just improbable, it runs contrary to established Northern political behavior.

What is at stake goes beyond individual ambition. The North is fully conscious of the stakes and increasingly resolute in its direction. There is a growing determination to stand firmly behind its own Atiku Abubakar, to protect its collective political strength, and to resist any arrangement that appears designed to divide it. The signals are clear, the North has decided, and it will not fall into what many perceive as calculated traps, whether from Kwankwaso or from forces seen as working against its cohesion and democratic leverage….

Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba writes from Kano, and can be reached via drssbaba@yahoo.com

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