Business
Brent Advances 11.82% w/w Amidst OPEC+ Cuts
Published
6 years agoon
By
Eric
By VETIVA
What shaped the past week?
Global: – It was a mixed week for global markets, as investor optimism over a potential coronavirus vaccine from drug markers Moderna and AstraZeneca, as well as the easing of the lockdown in the U.S., drove global markets higher. Moderna Inc. announced on Monday, that it is in the early-stage trials of a vaccine development, adding that they expect to begin the final testing stage in July. Meanwhile, U.K. based AstraZeneca announced on Thursday, that it secured its first agreements for 400 million doses of a COVID-19 vaccine it is testing, bolstered by a >$1 billion investment from the U.S. Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority vaccine agency. The drug-maker expects to produce and deliver the vaccine, starting fall 2020. Furthermore, White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, stated that he expects “pretty strong” second half of the year, as U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order to help the country’s labor market curb the coronavirus impact and ensure job growth. On the European front, The European Commission and the European Council agreed on a €100 billion unemployment fund, as nations in the region started reopening as well. Retail sales in the U.K. for April plunged 18.1%, as the virus induced lockdown weighed on consumer activity in the period. In addition, employment numbers revealed a 70% increase in unemployment claims by U.K. workers, while construction activity in the Eurozone, plunged 14% in March, driven by a downturn in manufacturing activity in Germany. On the Asian front, Japan announced that it will be lifting the state of emergency in Osaka, Kyoto and Hyogo on Thursday. Meanwhile, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) held interest rates unchanged at 3.85%, as investors remained focused on the ongoing dispute between the U.S. and China, over how the latter handled the outbreak.
Domestic Economy: With the coronavirus disrupting global trade and economic activity, oil demand fell to its lowest level in 21 years. Crude prices are down 60% y/y, as nations around the world imposed mobility restrictions to contain the spread of COVID-19. Nigeria, whose economy is largely tied to developments in the oil space, saw its Q1’20 oil revenue fall short of target by 11.77% to ₦940.91 billion. This was because the nation slashed prices on its benchmark Bonny Light crude grade, as it struggled to find off takers. The Finance Minister, Zainab Ahmed, who briefed reporters yesterday, highlighted that the shortfall in oil revenue could hinder the nation’s ability to fund critical infrastructure development projects. She also added that a slowdown in economic activity could result in a spike in unemployment, exasperating poverty levels, as the economy could contract by as much as 8.94% without a fiscal stimulus package. However, the National Economic Council (NEC) is working on implementing measures aimed at cushioning the impact of the downturn on the economy. In addition, a rebound in oil prices is expected in the second half of the year, as demand picks up with a gradual re-opening of economies. This should support a moderate recovery in economic growth in Q3’2020, and filter into Q4’2020.
Equities: The bulls dominated trading activity in the equities space this week, as a moderate recovery in oil prices helped improve sentiment in the market. The ASI gained 559bps w/w, driven by gains recorded in the Banking (+724bps w/w) and Industrial goods (+15.45% w/w) sectors. In the banking space, gainers were led by tier-one lenders, ZENITHBANK (+971bps w/w) and UBA (+880bps w/w), while BUACEMENT (+23.42% w/w) led all gainers in the Industrial Goods space. A surge in UNILEVER (+29.53% w/w), saw the Consumer Goods (+89bps w/w) sector close in the green, while gains recorded in MOBIL (+20.92% w/w) also pushed the Oil & Gas index over the green line. Outside of the major indices, the performance of the market was further aided by an uptick in MTNN this week (+502bps w/w). For the week, volume and value trade improved 86.05% and 93.00% respectively.
Fixed Income: On Wednesday, the Debt Management Office (DMO), conducted a bond auction where it offered ₦60 billion and sold ₦296 billion across the three maturities at stop rates of 9.20%, 11.70% and 12.60% Meanwhile, trading activity in the secondary market remained mixed this week, as market participants continue to patronize OMO notes in lieu of alternative investment opportunities. In the OMO space, average yield eased 255bps w/w driven by buying interest at the mid-long end of the curve. On the other hand, a moderate recovery in crude prices was enough to spark increased interest in the bond space, where the average yield on benchmark bonds eased 18bps w/w. Furthermore, despite the low yield environment persisting in the NTB space, trading activity was positive this week, as yields moderated 13bps on average.
Currency: The Naira appreciated ₦0.39 w/w at the I&E FX Window to settle at ₦385.94 and depreciated ₦10.00 w/w to close at ₦455.00 against the dollar in the parallel market.
What will shape markets in the coming week?
Equity market: Just as expected, we saw a mixed trading session on Friday, as investors continued to take advantage of some cheap counters while taking profit on some other tickers that has gained substantially in recent times. However, taking a cue from the improving events in the global space as well as the positive market breadth posted (1.80x), we expect the market to continue on its upward trend (though at a slower rate) upon resumption from the holiday on Wednesday.
Fixed Income market: We expect sentiment in the crude space, to turn bearish this week, following China’s plan to not issue a guidance on its GDP target for 2020 as it battles the economic shocks of the pandemic. As such, we expect to see limited interest in the bond space. However, the level of system liquidity and incoming maturities will continue to support buy-side activity in the OMO space.
Currency: We expect the naira to remain largely stable across the various windows of the currency space as the CBN maintains interventions in the FX market.
Focus for the week
April 2020 Inflation – Inflation accelerates amid pandemic risk, Ramadan arrival
In the latest report from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the overall consumer price index – a measure of the average change in prices over time of goods and services purchased by consumers – was up 12.34% y/y in Apr’20 from 12.26% y/y in Mar’20. Retail inflation inched higher on the back of a faster rise in both food and core prices. Annual food inflation accelerated to 15.03% y/y in Apr’20 (Mar’20: 14.98% y/y) while core inflation printed at 9.98% y/y (Mar’20: 9.73% y/y). Prices of food items like bread, fish, tubers, vegetables & fruits and bread & cereals were the main drivers of inflation in Apr’20.
COVID-19 price premiums inflate core prices y/y
Save for the Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuel sub-index, all the other sub-indices recorded a faster rise in prices compared to Mar’20. However, core prices rose y/y at a faster pace (+25bps) than food prices (5bps). This was due to a faster rise in prices in some COVID-19 prone sectors (health, transport and restaurant & hotels) compared to food prices. The faster rise in prices in the vulnerable sectors reflects price premiums for services, amid steady demand, due to increased risk associated with rendering those services. Specifically, we note that the prices of health and transport services rose 23bps and 22bps m/m respectively in Apr’20.
Ramadan arrival, lockdown pressure m/m food inflation
On a monthly basis, inflation rose by 18bps to 1.02% m/m (Vetiva estimate: 0.82% m/m) on a faster rise in food prices – compared to core prices. Food inflation rose by 24bps to 1.18% m/m (Mar’20: 0.94% m/m) as the demand for essential food products increased with the arrival of Ramadan. Across sub-nationals, states that implemented some form of mobility restriction (including Lagos, Kaduna, Akwa Ibom and Ondo) early in the month recorded steeper rises in food inflation – above the national average-, reflecting disruption to food supply chains and its attendant impact on food prices.
Inflationary pressures mount on supply disruptions
In the current month, we expect the headline inflation to print at 12.43% y/y, due to an anticipated rise in both food and core inflation. We expect food inflation to rise further to 15.09% y/y, as mobility restrictions persisted in May with more states involved from the start of the month. We also expect core inflation to inch higher to 10.07% y/y, as we anticipate that the pressure on transport and health service prices will persist through the month. In 2020, we expect the average inflation to inch higher to 11.86% y/y (2019: 11.39% y/y), on the back of a faster rise in both food and core prices. This is stronger than our previous estimate of 11.44%, as inflationary pressures continue to mount on pandemic-induced supply disruptions and impending price increases. We expect food inflation to come in higher at 14.10% y/y (2019: 13.73% y/y) as mobility restrictions – aimed at containing the spread of the virus – continue to disrupt food distribution, resulting in artificial scarcity and pressuring food prices. Also, we expect core inflation to average 9.86% y/y in 2020, higher than 9.16% y/y recorded in 2019. Core price pressures could stem from the continued pressure on health and transport service prices, as the local outbreak persists. Also, a much stronger recovery in oil prices could prompt an upward review of the pump price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), contributing to inflationary pressure across a number of other sectors. There are also indications that electricity subsidy will be removed by Jul’20, further adding to our expectation of accelerating core inflation in 2020. Taking the build-up in inflationary pressure into consideration, we expect the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to maintain its current monetary policy stance, amid a rise in external and fiscal risks. A rate cut could be counterproductive for inflation, amid a souring economic outlook, while a hike could undermine ongoing efforts to stimulate growth. We believe the CBN will be more focused on the transmission of its unconventional policies to the economy, rather than taking action.
Whilst reasonable care has been taken in preparing this document to ensure the accuracy of facts stated herein and that the ratings, forecasts, estimates and opinions also contained herein are objective, reasonable and fair, no responsibility or liability is accepted either by Vetiva Capital Management Limited or any of its employees for any error of fact or opinion expressed herein.
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Business
Why MTN, Airtel Suspended Airtime, Data Borrowing Services + the FCCPC Connection
Published
2 weeks agoon
April 19, 2026By
Eric
Nigeria’s largest telecom operators are temporarily suspending airtime and data loan services, a once-sticky feature for prepaid users, as new consumer lending rules force them into full regulatory compliance.
On Thursday, MTN Nigeria, the country’s largest telco, temporarily suspended its airtime and data lending product, Xtratime, and Airtel Nigeria, the second-largest provider, followed suit on Friday, citing the need to align with “evolving requirements.” Both companies say customers can still purchase airtime and bundles through standard channels.
“MTN Nigeria Communications PLC (MTN Nigeria or the Company) hereby notifies the Nigerian Exchange Limited and the investing public that the Company has temporarily suspended its airtime and data credit advance service (“Xtratime”),” the telco said in its filing. “This relates to the implementation of processes under the Digital, Electronic, Online or Non-Traditional Consumer Lending Regulations, 2025, which introduced a new compliance and licencing framework for entities providing digital or non-traditional consumer credit services.”
Nigerian telecom providers are reviewing their digital lending services to consumers following new rules by the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC), passed in July 2025. Those guidelines apply to any entity involved in the provision, facilitation, or administration of digital or non-traditional consumer lending, bringing airtime and data advances into scope and requiring operators to obtain licences and meet the compliance requirements before continuing the services.
“Airtel Nigeria remains committed to the highest standards of compliance, transparency, and consumer protection, while continuing to innovate responsibly within Nigeria’s digital ecosystem,” said Ismail Adeshina, the company’s director of marketing, in the statement released Friday.
However, in a statement issued on Friday, the FCCPC pushed back against claims that it ordered the suspension of airtime lending services, stating that it “has not prohibited airtime borrowing or data advance services, and no directive was issued preventing consumers from accessing lawful telecom value-added services.”
The regulator framed the disruptions as a consequence of operators’ failure to comply with existing rules within the stipulated timelines.
The FCCPC’s Digital, Electronic, Online, or Non-Traditional Consumer Lending (DEONCL) Regulations and Guidelines apply to entities involved in digital consumer lending, including services tied to repayable monetary value. Products, such as MTN’s Xtratime, fall within the scope of the framework.
The FCCPC said the rules were introduced following “a deluge of consumer complaints” involving opaque charges, unexplained deductions, aggressive recovery practices, and poor disclosure standards across digital lending services.
According to the consumer protection watchdog, affected digital lending operators, including telcos, were initially given a 90-day compliance window in 2025, later extended to January 5, 2026, yet relevant operators failed to meet the necessary compliance steps.
“In the telecom sector, our findings indicated that some operators engaged in exclusionary third-party technical arrangements in clear disobedience to the provisions of the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Act, 2018. The Regulations sought to unlock the market to allow local participants alongside foreign partners, in line with free market principles. These measures benefit Nigerians by reducing abusive practices, improving transparency, strengthening consumer choice, and encouraging responsible innovation by legitimate operators,” the regulator said on Friday.
Any temporary suspension, restriction, or operational change introduced by service providers, including telcos, should therefore be understood as a business or compliance decision by those operators, not a ban imposed by the FCCPC, the statement read.
Securing approval under the framework requires service providers to apply to the FCCPC, submit corporate and ownership documents, and disclose their lending models, including interest rates, charges, and default fees. Applicants must also declare all digital lending applications and interfaces used to issue credit, and provide evidence that these systems meet data protection and security standards under Nigerian law.
The rules further require formal consumer lending or service-level agreements (SLAs) for any partnerships with banks or fintechs. The FCCPC charges approval and renewal fees under the regulations, including an additional ₦500,000 ($372) for each lending application beyond the initial five permitted under a single approval.
While it is usually not reported separately, airtime lending contributes a sizable amount to telcos’ revenue.
In 2025, MTN Nigeria’s fintech revenue reached ₦191.3 billion ($142.5 million), growing by 80% from the previous year. About ₦10.9 billion ($8.1 million) accounted for its core fintech revenue, while the rest significantly came from airtime lending and other value-added services.
In Airtel’s case, the telco reports airtime credit service under its mobile services revenue segment, and according to how it defined this product in its 2025 financial year, it treats airtime credit as a value‑added service (VAS) classified as a mobile services product rather than a mobile money product.
In the nine months to December 2025, Airtel Nigeria’s mobile services revenue grew by 50% to $1.12 billion from $738 million year‑on‑year in constant‑currency terms. Data brought in $576 million; voice contributed $432 million, and “other” revenue—the bucket where airtime and data credit earnings sit—reported $113 million, up by about 44% from the previous year.
By comparison, Airtel Nigeria’s mobile money product, SmartCash, earned only $6 million over the same period, underscoring how small its fintech line still is relative to core mobile services income.
Airtime and data lending are high-margin businesses for telcos, since they keep the interest on advances, while incurring little to no procurement costs. Airtime credit is also critical for Nigeria’s credit-starved market, where increased telecom tariffs have pushed up the cost of staying online.
Other telecom operators operating in Nigeria, including Globacom and T2, are yet to announce similar moves. Both MTN Nigeria and Airtel Nigeria said the suspension is temporary and that the services will resume once they meet the requirements.
Source: Tech Cabal
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Fuel Importation Ban: Dangote Tackles NMDPRA over Continuous Issuance of Import Licences
Published
2 months agoon
March 14, 2026By
Eric
President of Dangote Industries Limited, Aliko Dangote, has raised concerns that Nigeria’s downstream regulator, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), is still issuing licences for petrol importation despite public assurances to the contrary, warning that the practice could undermine the operations of his refinery and threaten the country’s energy security.
Speaking in an exclusive interview with THISDAY, Dangote said the continued importation of refined petroleum products into Nigeria was hurting the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, which he insisted has the capacity to meet the country’s fuel demand.
“They are still issuing licences despite that we can meet the demand. They are still killing us with importation. They are importing and we are exporting. Yes, we can do 75 million litres, but they are still back-loading,” Dangote said.
According to the billionaire businessman, the refinery can produce up to 75 million litres of petrol daily, but some market participants are still bringing imported products into the country, a development he said could distort the domestic fuel market.
His comments came against the backdrop of a statement by the NMDPRA indicating that it had stopped issuing new licences for petrol importation because domestic refining was now meeting a significant portion of Nigeria’s demand.
The regulator said the decision aligns with provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act, which allows import licences to be issued only when local production cannot meet national consumption needs.
According to the agency, no new petrol import licences were issued in 2026 as supply from domestic refineries, particularly the Dangote refinery, was considered sufficient to support the local market.
However, NMDPRA data for January 2026 showed that about 24.8 million litres of imported petrol were still consumed daily in Nigeria, although the figure dropped significantly to about three million litres per day in February.
Dangote further alleged that many of the companies importing petrol into Nigeria do not operate retail outlets or filling stations, suggesting that some of the imported volumes may be diverted or smuggled after arriving in the country.
He warned that the trend could mirror challenges previously faced by Nigeria’s rice industry, where local producers struggled to compete with imported products.
Nigeria has historically relied on imported refined petroleum products due to the poor performance of its state-owned refineries. However, expectations have risen with the start of operations at the Dangote refinery, which has a processing capacity of 650,000 barrels per day and is regarded as the largest single-train refinery in the world.
The facility is seen as a major step in Nigeria’s efforts to end decades of dependence on imported fuel.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s minister of foreign affairs, Yusuf Tuggar, has said the ongoing tensions in the Middle East highlight the need for stronger energy partnerships with countries like Nigeria.
He noted that disruptions in oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil corridor, underscore the importance of diversifying supply sources.
Tuggar said Nigeria’s untapped oil and gas reserves present an opportunity for Gulf states to partner with the country in expanding production and stabilising global energy supply.
Nigeria currently produces about 1.7 million barrels of oil per day, up from around 1.4 million barrels when President Bola Tinubu assumed office in 2023, with the potential for further growth through increased investment in fields and pipelines.
He added that while Nigeria still imports significant volumes of refined petroleum products, expanding domestic refining capacity could help the country better withstand global energy shocks in the future.
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UBA Unveils Diaspora Platform to Connect Global Africans with Investment Opportunities
Published
3 months agoon
February 15, 2026By
Eric
Africa’s Global Bank, United Bank for Africa (UBA) Plc, has unveiled a diaspora banking and investment platform designed to serve Africans living and working across the world and within the continent.
The platform, launched in collaboration with leading ecosystem partners including United Capital, Africa Prudential, UBA Pensions, Afriland Properties, Heirs Insurance Group, and Avon Healthcare Limited — represents a major step in redefining diaspora banking beyond remittances toward structured wealth creation and long-term investment.
At the unveiling, which took place at UBA’s global headquarters in Lagos under the theme: “Beyond Banking: Powering the Global African Lifestyle, all the company representatives were on hand to showcase a seamless platform that goes beyond remittances, wealth creation, protection, and long-term prosperity.
Speaking at the event, UBA’s Head of Diaspora Banking, Anant Rao, described the initiative as a strategic shift in how Africa engages its global citizens.
“For decades, Africa’s engagement with its diaspora has focused largely on remittances. Today, we are moving beyond that. This platform represents a transition from simple money transfers to a financial ecosystem where Africans globally can bank, make payments, invest, protect their families, and build long-term wealth seamlessly,” he said.
Rao noted that African diaspora remittance flows exceed $100 billion annually, making them one of the most resilient and consistent sources of capital into the continent.
“Diaspora capital is not just a flow of funds — it is a strategic growth partner for Africa.
Our role is to provide a trusted platform that converts capital into structured investment and shared prosperity across the continent.”
The objective is to provide a platform that brings together offerings across the numerous needs of the Global African, including Banking and payments, Investments, securities services, asset management, Insurance, Pensions, real estate and Pensions.
Through this coordinated ecosystem, diaspora customers can access financial solutions across multiple sectors through a single trusted platform, enabling them to manage their financial lives and family commitments across borders with ease and transparency.
UBA’s Group Head, Marketing and Corporate Communications, Alero Ladipo, emphasised the importance of collaboration in delivering a seamless diaspora experience.
“The modern African is a global citizen — mobile, ambitious, and deeply connected to home. Whether living in Africa, Europe, the Americas, or the Middle East, there must be a structured and secure financial connection back home. This platform ensures that Africans everywhere can remain economically connected to the continent with confidence and transparency.”
Partners within the ecosystem highlighted growing demand among diaspora Africans for structured investment opportunities, secure property ownership, insurance protection, and long-term financial planning.
United Capital showcased globally accessible investment products designed to deliver professionally managed and transparent wealth creation opportunities.
Afriland Properties emphasised structured and well-governed real estate investment pathways for diaspora clients.
Heirs Insurance highlighted protection solutions for life, and assets, while Avon Healthcare Limited demonstrated healthcare access and insurance solutions for families across borders.
Africa Prudential and UBA Pension reinforced digital investment management and long-term pension savings solutions designed to support diaspora participation in African capital markets.
Together, the partners underscored a shared commitment to providing diaspora Africans with credible, transparent, and professionally managed financial pathways.
Rao also reiterated the guiding philosophy of Africapitalism, championed by UBA’s Founder and Chairman, Mr. Tony O. Elumelu, CFR.
He explained that Africapitalism is the belief that Africa’s private sector must play a leading role in the continent’s development by making long-term investments that generate both economic returns and social impact.
As Africa continues to position itself as one of the world’s most dynamic growth frontiers, UBA believes mobilising diaspora capital through trusted financial institutions will be central to shaping the continent’s next phase of development.
“Africa will increasingly be financed by Africans themselves, including Africans abroad.
“Our responsibility is to build the trusted financial infrastructure that makes this possible.
“When Africa’s global citizens invest back into Africa, growth becomes inevitable,” he concluded.
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