Opinion
The Oracle: Unending Boko Haram Insurgency and Failed Propaganda (Pt. 1)
Published
4 years agoon
By
Eric
By Mike Ozekhome
INTRODUCTION
A time there was when former president Goodluck Ebele Azikiwe Jonathan was the whipping child. Many Nigerians flogged him by the bare buttocks, with koboko or bulala, for allegedly allowing Boko Haram fester in the North East. They mocked him. One leading APC leader derisively described him as the “drunken Ijaw man”. He laughed all off, with smiles and affability. Occasionally with humour and guffaw.
THE TECHNICALITY OF A DEFEAT
This government had claimed since 2016, severally, that Boko Haram had been “technically defeated”; “badly degraded”. All that remained, prided the spokesperson, Lai Mohammed, was mere mop-up operations in the Sambisa forests. The government adulated itself; back-slapped one another and vilified Jonathan. They had mouthed lies and inanities that Boko Haram had taken over more than 7 LGAs in Borno state, planted their flags, and refused people passage. Pro-APC and those who bayed for Jonathan’s calm blood did not stop for a moment to consider the plausibility of this theory. Was it sensible?
THE FALSE CONSPIRACY THEORIES
They could not do simple logical analysis or reasoning, to wonder how the presidential election of February, 2015, could still take place in the North East, especially in Borno State, with “land-slide” and “moon-slide” victories for the then APC Presidential candidate, General Muhammadu Buhari, if Boko Haram had indeed so ravaged the North East that it was unreachable. Reason vacated its seat. Vain gloriousness and falsehood sat on the chair of sanity. Imperiously. Like a proud peacock!
The propagandists were not interested in the truth. What mattered then was that president Jonathan must be hounded out of power at all cost- by hook or crook. What mattered was that Messiah Buhari was coming in, like the lamb of God who “taketh away the sins of the world” (John 1.29). Buhari had promised Nigerians during his electioneering campaigns that economy, corruption, and insecurity would be his principal tripodial concern. He would deal them a death blow. On insecurity, he promised to “lead from the front”. Of course, Nigerians believed him. Why would Nigerians not believe him? Afterall, he was a retired General who had fought during the 3 year bloody Nigerian-Biafran civil war. Why not, when a “bloody civilian”; like Jonathan, could not “tame” the Boko Haram menace that was scorching dear North. Did Nigerians who suffered historical amnesia remember that Buhari once bemoaned the killing of Boko Haram insurgents which he likened to killing “Northern Moslems”?
GOODLUCK JONATHAN: THE SACRIFICIAL LAMB
So, Nigerians were misled, deceived and hood-winked hypnotically, sumnabulistically, to literally kick out Jonathan from office. Jonathan became the sacrificial lamb on the altar of bacchanalian gods and goddesses.
The affable, easy-going “I-had-no-shoes-to-wear-at-the-age-of-10” President quietly conceded defeat even while the votes were still being counted to satiate their over bloated ego. He insisted that his “ambition was not worth the drop of any Nigerian’s blood”. He was ridicled, derided, spat on and even attacked in some parts of Northern States (like Bauchi), where he had gone to campaign. He simply smiled and left, without uttering one word. Here was the Commander-In-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Federal Republic of Nigeria being stoned at campaign rallies. Not that he did not know. He did. He swallowed it.
On December 30, 2014, President Jonathan had received a delegation of Traditional Rulers and leaders of thought from Bayelsa State. Led by the then State Governor, Seriake Dickson, Jonathan had prophetically warned Nigerians thus (premiumtimesng.comnews):
“When I leave office, you will all remember me for the total freedom you enjoyed during my government”.
Then in a picture he posted on August 24, 2017, more than 2 years after Nigerians had been subjected to the most harrowing and asphyxiating experience of grinding poverty, escalated insecurity and mounting corruption (recovered loots were being relooted), Jonathan weighed in again (www.legit.ng):
“I am the most abused and insulted president in the world, but when I leave office you will all remember me for the total freedom you enjoyed under my government”.
Though President Jonathan said he will continue to do his best in solving Nigeria’s challenges, he however said he did not expect praise while still in office; but that his then actions and achievements will only be justified and applauded after he had left office. Has Jonathan not been proved right? Have events not vindicated him? Where are the historical revisionists, bootlickers, grovelers and fawners in this government now, the Buharists and Buharideens. Compare the GEJ era with the PMB era, and tell Nigerians honestly, which is better. Can any Nigerian take up the Holy Bible, Holy Quran or iron, and swear by God, Allah or Ogun, that his life is better today than he was in 2014?
THE CHANGING TIMES
An alleged mere blockade of the Chief of Staff, Lt. Gen Tukur Buratai passage in Zaria on December 12, 2015, by rallying Shites Islamic group, which led to a gridlock of his convoy, had promptly met with over 348 hundred in cold graves, laden with crimson blood of butchered unarmed and secretly buried Nigerians. Sheik Zakzaky and his wife were promptly arrested. They have been in detention since then, inspite of several court orders for their release. (en.m.wikipedia.org.www.cnn.com). History is good. It exhumes the ugly entrails of the past and splatters your face with them. Today, the story of Boko Haram is painfully worse. The historical revisionists have reached the end of their game of chicanery of mass propaganda that made Adolf Hitler’s Goebbel green with envy in his cold grave. The chicken has finally come home to roost.
The Pandora box has been broken. The dirty skeletons in the white sepulcher have been unearthed and thrown up.
Suddenly, the truth, always as slow as the tortoise and snail, has finally overtaken shear falsehood and multi-layered lies that always run as fast as Hussein Bolt and Ben Johnson combined.
Before Buhari’s government, Nigerians contended mostly with Boko Haram and kidnapping. Today, armed banditry, terrorizing AK-47 wielding herdsmen, rampaging kidnappers, blood-thirsty murderers and other demonic vampirious elements have since taken over the Nigerian space.
THE FINAL REVERSE
Now, the Federal Government has reversed itself. It wines, cringes, swallows now its vomit. Lai Mohammed has suddenly admitted that Nigeria is yet to defeat Boko Haram. (www.premiumtimesng.com). Reacting to the gruesome slaughter of 110 farmers by the terrorist group in Borno, Lai said that the federal government’s counter-terrorism efforts are being hamstrung by insufficient military hardware. Oh, really?
The Minister lamented that Nigeria’s entreaties to its foreign partners for assistance to upgrade its weaponry has not yielded results, hence the country may remain at the mercy of the dreaded jihadist group, which according to him, gets global funding: I thought elements of this same government once prevailed on the international community not to supply arms to the Jonathan government to fight the terrorists.
Lai lamented further:
“Nigeria has made an attempt to acquire a better and more effective platform to deal with terrorists but for one reason or the other we have been denied this platform — these weapons”.
He added: “Without adequate weapons or platforms, we remain at the mercy of terrorists.” But a former United States envoy to Nigeria, James Entwistle, had earlier disclosed that the U.S refused to sell arms to troubled Nigeria due to serious human rights infractions perpetrated by Nigerian troops, an allegation Lai has expectedly denied.
THE CHANGING TUNES
Now, those who shouted “hosanna” for Buhari, and “crucify Jonathan” to GEJ less than 6 years ago, are today singing a new song. The time for pretext is over. The time for historical revisionism is over. Now is the time for hard truth and soul-searching. Conscience, said Usman Dan Fodio, is “an open wound”; only truth can heal it”.
Yes! This was why the former two-term Governor of Borno State, Kashim Shettima, prodded by the gruesome beheading tens of Borno citizens, finally spilled the beans, in a motion he moved at the Plenary Session of the senate on 1st December, 2020. He said over 40 thousand people had been killed in 10 years, with over 2.5 million displaced, by the Boko Haram insurgents. He faulted the Federal Governments position that Boko Haram had been defeated-or-degraded, whether “technically”, militarily, physically, spiritually, psychologically, or otherwise.
Hear him:
“Last weekend’s beheading happened about 20 kilometres away from Maiduguri. From the 1st of January to this day, we have had 2,800 attacks in Borno State, Boko Haram are virtually ruling all our rural areas. They kill and abduct people at will. They are targeting farmers in the North.
Government officials keep saying Boko Haram has been technically defeated. This cliam is not true. The primary responsibility of government is to protect lives and property of the people. Any government that has failed in doing this has lost the legitimacy of the people.
If we allow terrorists to take over North East, that is capable of metamorphosing into something larger Shettima said”.
The Senator representing President Buhari’s constituency, Ahmed Baba Kaita, in his contribution, jabbed at his kinsman. He said actions of president Buhari have not produced any results so far. He said if something was not done, insurgents may overrun the country. Listen to him:
“The time of truth has come. The situation is no longer acceptable to any Nigerian. We can’t be mourning our citizens in and out every day. We can’t accept the explanation from those who should do the right thing whenever there is attack. If the statement from Garba Shehu is true (blaming the slain farmers for not getting clearance from troops before going to field), that’s very irresponsible.
“I believe that the situation is facing us eyeball to eyeball. We have to sit down and access the situation in the North East. Something is wrong here. If we allow this to go, we should be ready for another attack soon”. (To be continued). Next week, we shall see to how the Senate tackled this delicate issue.
FUN TIMES
“The way a Nigerian mum sends someone on errand will leave you confused.
My mum: Go and buy me bathing soap, if Lux is #70 buy it but if there is no Lux buy Joy soap. If there is Lux but they are selling it at #80 and Joy is #70, buy Joy soap. But if Lux and Joy soap are both at #80 each, buy Lux soap. If the two soaps are not available, buy any good soap that is #70.
Me: sorry mum, what did you send me to buy?
THOUGHT FOR THE WEEK
“Every person in this country is suffering because of bad governance”. (Arvind Kejriwal).
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Opinion
Reimagining the African Leadership Paradigm: A Comprehensive Blueprint
Published
2 days agoon
January 10, 2026By
Eric
By Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD
“To lead Africa forward is to move from transactional authority to transformational stewardship—where institutions outlive individuals, data informs vision, and service is the only valid currency of governance” – Tolulope A. Adegoke, PhD
The narrative of African leadership in the 21st century stands at a critical intersection of profound potential and persistent paradox. The continent, pulsating with the world’s youngest demographic and endowed with immense natural wealth, nonetheless contends with systemic challenges that stifle its ascent. This divergence between capacity and outcome signals not merely a failure of policy, but a deeper crisis of leadership philosophy and practice. As the global order undergoes seismic shifts, the imperative for African nations to fundamentally re-strategize their approach to governance has transitioned from an intellectual exercise to an existential necessity. Nigeria, by virtue of its demographic heft, economic scale, and cultural influence, serves as the continent’s most significant crucible for this transformation. The journey of Nigerian leadership from its current state to its potential apex offers a blueprint not only for its own 200 million citizens but for an entire continent in search of a new compass.
Deconstructing the Legacy Model: A Diagnosis of Systemic Failure
To construct a resilient future, we must first undertake an unflinching diagnosis of the present. The prevailing leadership archetype across much of Africa, with clear manifestations in Nigeria’s political economy, is built upon a foundation that has proven tragically unfit for purpose. This model is characterized by several interlocking dysfunctions:
· The Primacy of Transactional Politics Over Transformational Vision: Governance has too often been reduced to a complex system of transactions—votes exchanged for short-term patronage, positions awarded for loyalty over competence, and resource allocation serving political expediency rather than national strategy. This erodes public trust and makes long-term, cohesive planning impossible.
· The Tyranny of the Short-Term Electoral Cycle: Leadership decisions are frequently held hostage to the next election, sacrificing strategic investments in education, infrastructure, and industrialization on the altar of immediate, visible—yet fleeting—gains. This creates a perpetual cycle of reactive governance, preventing the execution of decade-spanning national projects.
· Administrative Silos and Bureaucratic Inertia: Government ministries and agencies often operate as isolated fiefdoms, with limited inter-departmental collaboration. This siloed approach fragments policy implementation, leads to contradictory initiatives, and renders the state apparatus inefficient and unresponsive to complex, cross-sectoral challenges like climate change, public health, and national security.
· The Demographic Disconnect: Africa’s most potent asset is its youth. Yet, a vast governance gap separates a dynamic, digitally-native, and globally-aware generation from political structures that remain opaque, paternalistic, and slow to adapt. This disconnect fuels alienation, brain drain, and social unrest.
· The Weakness of Institutions and the Cult of Personality: When the strength of a state is vested in individuals rather than institutions, it creates systemic vulnerability. Independent judiciaries, professional civil services, and credible electoral commissions are weakened, leading to arbitrariness in the application of law, erosion of meritocracy, and a deep-seated crisis of public confidence.
The tangible outcomes of this flawed model are the headlines that define the continent’s challenges: infrastructure deficits that strangle commerce, public education and healthcare systems in states of distress, jobless economic growth, multifaceted security threats, and the chronic hemorrhage of human capital. To re-strategize leadership is to directly address these outputs by redesigning the very system that produces them.
Pillars of a Reformed Leadership Architecture: A Holistic Framework
The new leadership paradigm must be constructed not as a minor adjustment, but as a holistic architectural endeavor. It requires foundational pillars that are interdependent, mutually reinforcing, and built to endure beyond political transitions.
1. The Philosophical Core: Embracing Servant-Leadership and Ethical Stewardship
The most profound change must be internal—a recalibration of the leader’s fundamental purpose. The concept of the leader as a benevolent “strongman” must give way to the model of the servant-leader. This philosophy, rooted in both timeless African communal values (ubuntu) and modern ethical governance, posits that the true leader exists to serve the people, not vice versa. It is characterized by deep empathy, radical accountability, active listening, and a commitment to empowering others. Success is measured not by the leader’s personal accumulation of power or wealth, but by the tangible flourishing, security, and expanded opportunities of the citizenry. This ethos fosters trust, the essential currency of effective governance.
2. Strategic Foresight and Evidence-Based Governance
Leadership must be an exercise in building the future, not just administering the present. This requires the collaborative development of a clear, compelling, and inclusive national vision—a strategic narrative that aligns the energies of government, private sector, and civil society. For Nigeria, frameworks like Nigeria’s Agenda 2050 and the National Development Plan must be de-politicized and treated as binding national covenants. Furthermore, in the age of big data, governance must transition from intuition-driven to evidence-based. This necessitates significant investment in data collection, analytics, and policy-informing research. Whether designing social safety nets, deploying security resources, or planning agricultural subsidies, decisions must be illuminated by rigorous data, ensuring efficiency, transparency, and measurable impact.
3. Institutional Fortification: Building the Enduring Pillars of State
A nation’s longevity and stability are directly proportional to the strength and independence of its institutions. Re-strategizing leadership demands an unwavering commitment to institutional architecture:
· An Impervious Judiciary: The rule of law must be absolute, with a judicial system insulated from political and financial influence, guaranteeing justice for the powerful and the marginalized alike.
· Electoral Integrity as Sacred Trust: Democratic legitimacy springs from credible elections. Investing in independent electoral commissions, transparent technology, and robust legal frameworks is non-negotiable for political stability.
· A Re-professionalized Civil Service: The bureaucracy must be transformed into a merit-driven, technologically adept, and well-remunerated engine of state, shielded from the spoils system and empowered to implement policy effectively.
· Robust, Transparent Accountability Ecosystems: Anti-corruption agencies require genuine operational independence, adequate funding, and protection. Complementing this, transparent public procurement platforms and mandatory asset declarations for public officials must become normalized practice.
4. Collaborative and Distributed Leadership: The Power of the Collective
The monolithic state cannot solve wicked problems alone. The modern leader must be a convener-in-chief, architecting platforms for sustained collaboration. This involves actively fostering a triple-helix partnership:
· The Public Sector sets the vision, regulates, and provides enabling infrastructure.
· The Private Sector drives investment, innovation, scale, and job creation.
· Academia and Civil Society contribute research, grassroots intelligence, independent oversight, and specialized implementation capacity.
This model distributes responsibility, leverages diverse expertise, and fosters innovative solutions—from public-private partnerships in infrastructure to tech-driven civic engagement platforms.
5. Human Capital Supremacy: The Ultimate Strategic Investment
A nation’s most valuable asset walks on two feet. Re-strategized leadership places a supreme, non-negotiable priority on developing human potential. For Nigeria and Africa, this demands a generational project:
· Revolutionizing Education: Curricula must be overhauled to foster critical thinking, digital literacy, STEM proficiency, and entrepreneurial mindset—skills for the Fourth Industrial Revolution. Investment in teacher training and educational infrastructure is paramount.
· Building a Preventive, Resilient Health System: Focus must shift from curative care in central hospitals to robust, accessible primary healthcare. A healthy population is a productive population, forming the basis of economic resilience.
· Creating an Enabling Environment for Talent: Beyond education and health, leadership must provide the ecosystem where talent can thrive: reliable electricity, ubiquitous broadband, access to venture capital, and a regulatory environment that encourages innovation and protects intellectual property. The goal is to make the domestic environment more attractive than the diaspora for the continent’s best minds.
6. Assertive, Strategic Engagement in Global Affairs
African leadership must shed any vestiges of a supplicant mentality and adopt a posture of strategic agency. This means actively shaping continental and global agendas:
· Leveraging the AfCFTA: Moving beyond signing agreements to actively dismantling non-tariff barriers, harmonizing standards, and investing in cross-border infrastructure to turn the agreement into a real engine of intra-African trade and industrialization.
· Diplomacy for Value Creation: Foreign policy should be strategically deployed to attract sustainable foreign direct investment, secure technology transfer agreements, and build partnerships based on mutual benefit, not aid dependency.
· Advocacy for Structural Reform: African leaders must collectively and persistently advocate for reforms in global financial institutions and multilateral forums to ensure a more equitable international system.
The Nigerian Imperative: From National Challenges to a National Charter
Applying this framework to Nigeria requires translating universal principles into specific, context-driven actions:
· Integrated Security as a Foundational Priority: Security strategy must be comprehensive, blending advanced intelligence capabilities, professionalized security forces, with parallel investments in community policing, youth employment programs in high-risk areas, and accelerated development to address the root causes of instability.
· A Determined Pursuit of Economic Complexity: Leadership must orchestrate a decisive shift from rent-seeking in the oil sector to value creation across diversified sectors: commercialized agriculture, light and advanced manufacturing, a thriving creative industry, and a dominant digital services sector.
· Constitutional and Governance Re-engineering: To harness its diversity, Nigeria requires a sincere national conversation on restructuring. This likely entails moving towards a more authentic federalism with greater fiscal autonomy for states, devolution of powers, and mechanisms that ensure equitable resource distribution and inclusive political representation.
· Pioneering a Just Energy Transition: Nigeria must craft a unique energy pathway—strategically utilizing its gas resources for domestic industrialization and power generation, while simultaneously positioning itself as a regional hub for renewable energy technology, investment, and innovation.
Conclusion: A Collective Endeavor of Audacious Hope
Re-strategizing leadership in Africa and in Nigeria is not an event, but a generational process. It is not the abandonment of culture but its evolution—melding the deep African traditions of community, consensus, and elder wisdom with the modern imperatives of transparency, innovation, and individual rights. This task extends far beyond the political class. It is a summons to a new generation of leaders in every sphere: the tech entrepreneur in Yaba, the reform-minded civil servant in Abuja, the agri-preneur in Kebbi, the investigative journalist in Lagos, and the community activist in the Niger Delta.
Ultimately, this is an endeavor of audacious hope. It is the conscious choice to build systems stronger than individuals, institutions more enduring than terms of office, and a national identity richer than our ethnic sum. Nigeria possesses all the requisite raw materials for greatness: human brilliance, cultural richness, and natural bounty. The final, indispensable ingredient is a leadership strategy worthy of its people. The blueprint is now detailed; the call to action is urgent. The future awaits not our complaints, but our constructive and courageous labor. Let the work begin in earnest.
Dr. Tolulope A. Adegoke is a globally recognized scholar-practitioner and thought leader at the nexus of security, governance, and strategic leadership. His work addresses complex institutional challenges, with a specialized focus on West African security dynamics, conflict resolution, and sustainable development.
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Opinion
Rivers State: Two Monkeys Burn the Village to Prove They Are Loyal to Jagaban
Published
5 days agoon
January 7, 2026By
Eric
By Sly Edaghese
Teaser
Rivers State is not collapsing by accident. It is being offered as a sacrifice. Two men, driven by fear of irrelevance and hunger for protection, have chosen spectacle over stewardship—setting fire to a whole people’s future just to prove who kneels better before power.
There comes a point when a political tragedy degenerates into farce, and the farce mutates into a curse. Rivers State has crossed that point. What is unfolding there is not governance, not even conflict—it is ritual madness, a grotesque contest in which two men are willing to burn an entire state just to be noticed by one man sitting far away in Abuja.
This is not ambition.
This is desperation wearing designer jacket.
At the center of this inferno stand two performers who have mistaken power for immortality and loyalty for slavery. One is a former god. The other is a former servant. Both are now reduced to naked dancers in a marketplace, grinding their teeth and tearing flesh to entertain Jagaban.
The first is Nyesom Wike—once feared, once untouchable, now frantic. A man whose political identity has collapsed into noise, threats, and recycled bravado. His ministerial appointment was never a validation of statesmanship; it was a severance package for betrayal. Tinubu did not elevate Wike because he admired him—he tolerated him because he was useful. And usefulness, in politics, is key, but it has an expiry date.
Wike governed Rivers State not as a public trust but as a private estate. He did not build institutions; he built dependencies. He did not groom leaders; he bred loyalists. Before leaving office, he salted the land with his men—lawmakers, commissioners, council chairmen—so that even in absence, Rivers State would still answer to his shadow. His obsession was simple and sick: if I cannot rule it, no one else must.
Enter Siminalayi Fubara—a man selected, not tested; installed, not trusted by the people but trusted by his maker. Fubara was meant to be an invisible power in a visible office—a breathing signature, a ceremonial governor whose only real duty was obedience.
But power has a way of awakening even the most timid occupant.
Fubara wanted to act like a governor. That single desire triggered a full-scale political assassination attempt—not with bullets, but with institutions twisted into weapons. A state of emergency was declared with obscene haste. The governor was suspended like a naughty schoolboy. His budget was butchered. His local government elections were annulled and replaced with a pre-arranged outcome favorable to his tormentor. Lawmakers who defected and lost their seats by constitutional law were resurrected like political zombies and crowned legitimate.
This was not law.
This was organized humiliation.
And when degradation alone failed, Wike went further—dragging Fubara into a room to sign an agreement that belonged more to a slave plantation than a democratic republic.
One clause alone exposed the rot:
👉 Fubara must never seek a second term.
In plain language: you may warm the chair, but you will never own it.
Then came the most revealing act of all—Wike leaked the agreement himself. A man so intoxicated by dominance that he thought publicizing oppression would strengthen his grip.
That leak was not strategy; it was confession. It told Nigerians that this was never about peace, order, or party discipline—it was about absolute control over another human being.
But history has a cruel sense of humor.
While Wike strutted like a victorious warlord and his loyal lawmakers sharpened new knives, Fubara did something dangerous: he adapted. He studied power where it truly resides. He learned Tinubu’s language—the language of survival, alignment, and betrayal without apology. Then he did what Nigerian politics rewards most:
He crossed over.
Not quietly. Not shamefully. But theatrically. He defected to the APC, raised a party card numbered 001 and crowned himself leader of the party in Rivers State. He pledged to deliver the same Rivers people to Tinubu just as Wike also has pledged.
That moment was not boldness.
It was cold-blooded realism.
And in one stroke, Wike’s myth collapsed.
The once-feared enforcer became a shouting relic—touring local governments like a prophet nobody believes anymore, issuing warnings that land on deaf ears, reminding Nigerians of favors that no longer matter. He threatened APC officials, cursed betrayal, and swore eternal vengeance. But vengeance without access is just noise.
Today, the humiliation is complete.
Fubara enters rooms Wike waits outside.
Presidential aides shake hands with the new alignment.
The old king rants in press conferences, sounding increasingly like a man arguing with a locked door.
And yet, the darkest truth remains: neither of these men cares about Rivers State.
One is fighting to remain relevant.
The other is fighting to remain protected.
The people—the markets, the schools, the roads, the civil servants—are expendable extras in a drama scripted far above their heads.
Some say Tinubu designed this blood sport—unable to discard Wike outright, he simply unleashed his creation against him. Whether genius or negligence, the effect is the same: Rivers State is being eaten alive by ambition.
This is what happens when politics loses shame.
This is what happens when loyalty replaces competence.
This is what happens when leaders treat states like bargaining chips and citizens like ashes.
Two monkeys are burning the village—not to save it, not to rule it—but to prove who can scream loudest while it burns.
And Jagaban watches, hands folded.
But when the fire dies down, when the music stops, when the applause fades, there will be nothing left to govern—only ruins, regret, and two exhausted dancers staring at the ashes, finally realizing that power does not clap forever.
Sly Edaghese sent in this piece from Wisconsin, USA.
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By Pelumi Olajengbesi Esq.
Every student of politics should now be interested in what will be the end of Wike. Wike is one of those names that mean different things to different people within Nigeria’s political culture. To his admirers, he is courage and capacity, to his critics, he is disruption and excess, and to neutral observers like me, he is simply a fascinating case study in the mechanics of power.
In many ways, he was instrumental to the emergence of President Tinubu, and he has long sat like a lord over the politics of Rivers, having pushed aside nearly every person who once mattered in that space. He waged war against his party, the PDP, and drove it to the edge. Wike waged war against his successor and reduced him to submission. He fights anyone who stands in his way.
He is powerful, loved by many, and deeply irritating to many others. Yet for all his strength, one suspects that Wike does not enjoy peace of mind, because before he is done with one fight, another fight is already forming. From Rivers to Ibadan, Abuja to Imo, and across the country, he is the only right man in his own way. He is constantly in motion, constantly in battle, and constantly singing “agreement is agreement,” while forgetting that politics is merely negotiation and renegotiation.
To his credit, Wike may often be the smartest political planner in every room. He reads everybody’s next move and still creates a countermove. In that self image, Governor Fubara was meant to remain on a leash, manageable through pressure, inducement, and the suggestion that any disobedience would be framed as betrayal of the President and the new federal order.
But politics has a way of punishing anyone who believes control is permanent. The moment Fubara joined the APC, the battlefield shifted, and old tricks began to lose their edge. Whether by real alignment, perceived alignment, or even the mere possibility of a different alignment, once Fubara was no longer boxed into the corner Wike designed for him, Wike’s entire method required review. The fight may remain, but the terrain has changed. When terrain changes, power must either adapt or harden into miscalculation.
It is within this context that the gradually brewing crisis deserves careful attention, because what is emerging is not merely another loud exchange, but a visible clash with vital stakeholders within the Tinubu government and the wider ruling party environment. There is now a fixed showdown with the APC National Secretary, a man who is himself not allergic to confrontation, and who understands that a fight, if properly timed, can yield political advantage, institutional relevance, and bargaining power. When such a figure publicly demands that Nyesom Wike should resign as a minister in Tinubu’s cabinet, it is not a joke, It is about who is permitted to exercise influence, in what space, and on what terms. It is also about the anxiety that follows every coalition built on convenience rather than shared identity, because convenience has no constitution and gratitude is not a structure.
Wike embodies that anxiety in its most dramatic form. He is a man inside government, but not fully inside the party that controls government. He is a man whose usefulness to a winning project is undeniable, yet whose political style constantly reminds the winners that he is not naturally theirs. In every ruling party, there is a crucial difference between allies and stakeholders. Allies help you win, and stakeholders own the structure that decides who gets what after victory. Wike’s problem is that he has operated like both. His support for Tinubu, and his capacity to complicate the opposition’s arithmetic, gave him relevance at the centre. That relevance always tempts a man to behave like a co-owner.
Wike has built his political life on the logic of territorial command. He defines the space, polices the gate, punishes disloyalty, rewards submission, and keeps opponents permanently uncertain. That method is brutally effective when a man truly owns and controls the structure, because it produces fear, and fear produces compliance. This is why Wike insists on controlling the Rivers equation, even when that insistence conflicts with the preferences of the national centre.
The APC leadership is not reacting only to words. It is reacting to what the words represent. When a minister speaks as though a state chapter of the ruling party should be treated like a guest in that state’s politics, the party reads it as an attempt to subordinate its internal structure to an external will. Even where the party has tolerated Wike because of what he helped deliver, it cannot tolerate a situation where its own officials begin to look over their shoulders for permission from a man who is not formally one of them. Once a party believes its chain of command is being bypassed, it will choose institutional survival over interpersonal loyalty every time.
Wike’s predicament is the classic risk of power without full institutional belonging. Informal influence can be louder than formal power, but it is also more fragile because it depends on continuous tolerance from those who control formal instruments. These instruments include party hierarchy, candidate selection, and the legitimacy that comes with membership.
An outsider ally can be celebrated while he is useful, but the coalition that celebrates him can begin to step away the moment his methods create more cost than value. The cost is not only electoral, it can also be organisational. A ruling party approaching the next political cycle becomes sensitive to discipline, structure, and coherence. If the leadership suspects that one person’s shadow is creating factions, confusing loyalties, or humiliating party officials, it will attempt to cut that shadow down. It may not do so because it hates the person, but because it fears the disorder and the precedent.
So the question returns with greater urgency, what will be the end of Wike? If it comes, it may not come with fireworks. Strongmen often do not fall through one decisive attack. They are slowly redesigned out of relevance. The end can look like isolation, with quiet withdrawal of access, gradual loss of influence over appointments, and the emergence of new centres of power within the same territory he once treated as private estate. It can look like neutralisation, with Wike remaining in office, but watching the political value of the office drain because the presidency and the party no longer need his battles. It can look like forced realignment, with him compelled to fully submit to the ruling party structure, sacrificing the freedom of being an independent ally, or losing the cover that federal power provides.
Yet it is also possible that his story does not end in collapse, because Wike is not a novice. The same instinct that made him influential can also help him survive if he adapts. But adaptation would require a difficult shift. It would require a move from territorial warfare to coalition management. It would require a move from ruling by fear to ruling by accommodation. It would require a move from being merely feared to being structurally useful without becoming structurally threatening. Wike may be running out of time.
Pelumi Olajengbesi is a Legal Practitioner and Senior Partner at Law Corridor
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