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The Banana Peel Under APC’s Rickety Chair: The Booby Traps That Lie Ahead

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By Chief Mike A.A. Ozekhome SAN, OFR, Ph.D.

INTRODUCTION

The APC has ruled Nigeria for over 6 years. It has failed in all indices of governance. The three core areas on which President Muhammadu Buhari campaigned as its candidate, have been honoured more in breach than in observance. They are economy, security and corruption. Each pigeon hole oozes with the putrefaction of non-performance and abysmal failure.

Nigeria is worse off today under the APC than she was in 2015. Not a few Nigerians pray every day that the Party should be booted out of power with the urgency of yesterday. Some Nigerians have since mounted a calendar, counting how many days more Buhari has to remain in office before vacating same upon effluxion of his mandatory 2 terms tenure of 4 years each. Just 668 days. Only 668 days for Buhari to leave power; many celebrate. They count days. Some count weeks; some others, months. A beleaguered Nigerian wrote to me that he is only counting hours (16, 032 hours). Another added humorously that he prefers to count minutes (961,920 minutes)! Such is the disillusionments and regrets of the APC- Buhari administration.

The realization that Buhari under Nigeria’s constitutional organogram cannot have a third term gladdens many hearts, giving them a ray of hope; some light at the end of Nigeria’s dingy asphyxiating and strangulating tunnel. But, Nigerians do not know how to go about ensuring that another Emperor Buhari does not come back. They fear there would be no free and fair elections in 2023. What with Senate’s unpatriotic and undemocratic rejection of electronic transmission of votes, and the House of Representatives’ double-speak on it! Not few Nigerians believe that the outright rejection of electronic voting is preparatory to APC’s readiness to massively rig the 2023 elections, knowing it has performed below average in service and democratic dividends-delivery. So, Nigerians belly-ache. They gnash teeth.
However, Nigerians may now heave a sigh of relieve. Unwittingly. From the most unexpected source: the Supreme Court. There are many ways to kill a stubborn rat that enters a calabash without breaking the calabash itself. The cheapest opportunity is the current banana peel that sits like an emancipator under the APC’s rickety and crincky chair of nepotism, sectionalism, prebendalism, cronynism, apaque3ness in governance and poverty spread.

THE SUPREME’S JUDGMENT

It is the Wednesday, July 28, 2021, Supreme Court judgment in the Eyitayo Jegede V. Oluwarotimi Akeredolu (Appeal Nos: SC/448/21; SC/501/21; SC/508/21; and SC/509/21. The judgment was a very narrow 4 – 3 split decision in favour of Akeredolu. What a narrow escape! Aketi needs to go to Church for special thanksgiving.

The candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the Ondo election, Eyitayo Jegede, SAN, and his party, the PDP, had challenged the competence of Akeredolu, SAN’s nomination/sponsorship for the election by the APC, contending that the letter conveying his nomination/sponsorship to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) was incompetent, having been signed by Buni and others. They specifically urged the Court to determine whether Buni as a sitting Governor of Yobe State, could simultaneously double as the National Caretaker Committee Chairman of the APC (NCCC) to sign the nomination of Akeredolu, SAN, for the said governorship election.

They contended that by the provisions of Section 183 of the 1999 Constitution and Article 17 (4) of the APC constitution, Buni had acted unlawfully by being the Yobe Governor and serving as APC’s NCCC Chairman, all at the same time. They contended that because of this vice, the nomination/sponsorship letter Buni signed for the APC, notifying INEC of the candidacy of Akeredolu and Lucky Aiydatiwa (as APC’s Governorship and Deputy Governorship candidates) was void. They then urged the apex court to void the July, 16, 2021 judgment of the Court of Appeal, Akure Division, which had validated Akeredolu’s election.

THE MAJORITY DECISION

In his lead majority split judgment, Justice Emmanuel Akomaye Agim held that, since Jegede and the PDP made Buni the centre of their allegations of constitutional breaches, he ought to have been made a party in the case to enable him defend himself in line with the doctrine of fair hearing.

The Supreme Court proceeded to uphold the earlier judgment of the Court of Appeal, to the effect that the petition filed by Jegede and his party to the election tribunal was incompetent because they failed to join Buni as a party.

Justice Agim held: “The appeal was based on the ground that Mai Mala Buni, the Chairman of the NCCC of the second respondent (APC), was holding office as the Governor of Yobe State, contrary to the provisions of Section 183 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (1999).

“All the issues raised, revolved around Mala Buni. But, Mala Buni, who is at the centre of the dispute was not made party to the petition. It is obvious that the determination of the said issues will affect him.
“Therefore, the court below was right to have held that he was a necessary party to this suit. Failure to join him renders the determination of the matter impossible. To proceed to do so would have violated the fair trial of the case.

“Therefore, we affirm the lower court’s decision that the petitioner was incompetent.

“There is no dispute that the third and fourth respondents (Akeredolu and Aiyedatiwa) were nominated by the second respondent (APC) as its candidates for the election; that the second respondent submitted their names to the first respondent (INEC) as its candidates, in accordance with Section 31(1) of the Electoral Act.

“They were therefore sponsored by the second in accordance with Section 177(c) of the Constitution (1999). It is not in dispute that Mai Mala Buni is acting as the National Chairman of the second respondent,” he said.

Justice Agim therefore held that the decision to allow Buni act as its National Committee Chairman (in the interim) was made by the APC, despite the provisions of Article 17 (4 of its Constitution, thereby making the decision internal to the party.

He added: “The second respondent (APC) allowed him (Buni) to be its Chairman in the interim inspite of Article 17 of its constitution.

The vires of this decision of the party is non-justiciable. This appeal fails and it is hereby dismissed,” he held.

THE MINORITY DECISION

The minority judgment differed in all material particular from this majority opinion.

In the lead minority judgment, Justice Mary Peter-Odili (who also presided on the panel) upheld Jegede’s appeal and dismissed the cross-appeals by INEC), APC, Akeredolu and Aiyedatiwa; just as the same majority Justices had also done.

Justice Odili was of the firm view that since the APC, for which Buni acted, was already a party in the case, there was no need to include him as a party.

She added that having allowed Buni to act on its behalf in signing the nomination/sponsorship letter of its candidates in Ondo despite the clear provisions of section 183 of the 1999 Constitution and Article 17(4) of the APC Constitution, the party should live by the consequences of its lawlessness.

“I do not agree with the majority judgment,” she dilated emphatically, noting that the APC, by Article 17(4) of its Constitution has provided for how its affairs should be managed and what offices its members should occupy at a time.

“This Article draws strength from Section 183 of the 1999 Constitution. Therefore when the second respondent (APC) put up a person not qualified to author its nomination by virtue of the provision of Article 17(4) of its Constitution and Section 183 of the 1999 Constitution to do so, that document has no validity, and thereby void,” she said.

She noted that the implication was that the nomination and candidacy of Akeredolu and his Deputy was a complete nullity and that the person, who ought to be declared winner of the election” is the first appellant (Jegede), who has the majority of valid votes.”
Justice Peter-Odili further held that it was unlawful and amounted to a violation of Article 17(4) of the APC Constitution and section 183 of the 1999 Constitution for Buni to be serving as the National Chairman of the APC and the Governor of Yobe State at the same time.

Justices Ejembi Eko and Mohammed Saulawa concurred with Justice Peter-Odili in upholding the appeal and dismissing the cross-appeals filed by INEC, APC, Akeredolu and Aiyedatiwa.

LEGAL ANALYSIS

THE LAW

Section 183 of the 1999 Constitution provides as follows:
‘‘The Governor shall not, during the period when he holds office, hold any other executive office or paid employment in any capacity whatsoever’’.

If there was any doubt as to the dangerous implications of this section in Buni acting as the APC National Caretaker Committee Chairman, section 17 (iv) of the APC Constitution is quite clear and unambiguous on this. It provides that “No official of the party shall at the same time hold any Government position in any Government institution”.

Thus, while the 1999 Constitution views Buni’s appointment from the position of Governor (Executive) to the party, the APC Constitution takes the reverse view of Buni’s appointment from the APC to the Governor (Executive). So, head or tail, position APC is in trouble.

CANONS OF STATUTORY INTERPRETATION

Canons of statutory interpretation are clear to the effect that when a statute is enacted in clear words, such words should be given their natural, usual and ordinary meaning in their interpretation. This shows the intent of the Legislature. See Ikpaezu V. Ogah & Ors (2016) LPELR-40845 (CA); Ofodile & Anor V. Aliozo & Ors (2021) LPELR-54159 (CA); Gana V. SDP & Ors (2019) LPELR-47153 (SC); Skye Bank V. Iwu (2017) LPELR-42595 (SC).

The Supreme Court majority judgment did not disagree with the fact that Mai Mala Buni as Governor of Yobe State was not competent to function as National Chairman of a political party (APC) and nominate a candidate for election through the INEC. Its view (and this must be respected) is based mostly on the rather technical stance (also earlier adopted by the Court of Appeal), that the non-joinder of Buni as a party in the suit was fatal to the PDP and Jegede’s appeal. Was it really? How, when the APC, which sponsored Buni, and for whom Buni at all material times acted as an agent was already a party to the suit? I do not and cannot understand this. Or, do you? The law is trite that you do not need to go after an agent (Buni) where there is a disclosed principal (APC). Such a disclosed principal is solely liable for its agent’s authorized actions, as the agent is not personally liable. See Okafor V. Ezenwa (2002) 13 NWLR (Pt. 784) 319; Osigwe V. PSPLS Management Consortium Ltd (2009) 3 NWLR (Pt 1128) 378.

EXTRAPOLATIONS FROM THE SUPREME COURT’S JUDGMENT

The simple conclusion is that if Buni had been joined as a party in the suit, the story would have been different, as the APC would have lost Ondo State to the PDP. Pronto! It is that simple. Indeed, it is rare to see such a close shave of 4-3 split judgment by the Supreme Court. Minority decisions are usually more rigorous and better researched as they seek to swim against the tide of the majority opinion that may be tyrannical.
The Supreme Court’s judgment has simply furiously (perhaps, inadvertently), weaponised all those that would be aggrieved by the APC’s forthcoming Congresses and other elections. They only need to go to court to challenge the competence of the Buni-led NCCC to organise the forthcoming Congresses and National Convention. Thus from bottom to top, the APC’s amorphous structures made up of disparate tendencies have been irretrievably damaged, nay, destroyed. All Congresses, meetings, conventions and elections that henceforth have the imprimatur of Governor Mai Mala Buni are subject to being quashed by the court at the instance of any aggrieved party member. Indeed, all actions so far taken by the Buni-led NCCC in that capacity can be quashed by any aggrieved member of the APC. Such a member has locus standi if he can show his membership card. Here comes the banana peel! APC will slip. And the fall will be thunderous. And Nigerians will applaud. God, how mighty thou Art!

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It’s Stupid to Say Only Southerner Can Be President in 2027 – Dele Momodu

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By Christy Anyanwu (The Sun)

Veteran journalist and Publisher, Ovation Magazine, Chief Dele Momodu, is a former presidential aspirant and a member of the African Democratic Congress (ADC). He has been one of the consistent voices against what he terms bad policies and actions of the incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC). In this interview, he spoke on the Tinubu administration, the opposition ADC, the 2027 elections and other issues of national importance.

What are your concerns about the 2027 general election? Do you have any fear?

I have no fear whatsoever, though there’s a bit of agitation everywhere. If you ask most people, they would tell you, Oh, Asiwaju will rig the election. They are sure Tinubu will do this and that. He has the power of life and death and so on and so forth, but I’m not bothered. As you get older in life, you begin to understand the God factor better. I believe that whatever APC likes, let them do. When it is God’s time, he will push them out and I think, this 2027, we are closer to it than ever.

You are in the ADC, and your party says the challenges and troubles in the party were created by the ruling party. Could you explain that?

I said APC, whether they like it or not, the whole world knows that they have failed. And now the people are thinking it is political parties that chase away government? No, it is not parties; it is the people. When the people rise up and say it was the people that chased away PDP that time, it was the people. In this case, those who will chase Tinubu and APC away are not just members of ADC. They are Nigerians who are fed up, completely fed up, who will look back at the last three or four years and ask pertinent questions like, Was my life better in 2023 than it is in 2027? Was security much better in 2023 than it is in 2027? Was electricity better? Was water better? Was infrastructure better? Was our foreign policy better? Was the quality of ministers better? When you answer all those questions, you will see that the majority of the answers will be no, no, no. And that is what will determine why people will vote them out.

Whenever you talk about voting APC out, voting Tinubu out, many people are like, Dele Momodu was very close to Asiwaju. What actually happened?

Nothing is happening. It is nothing personal. I love Asiwaju as a person but I have always maintained that I do not like dictatorship. And that is the main issue. I wish he would just perform well, instead of wasting money up and down, chasing shadows and all that, instead of just settling down to work. If he works well, it will be palpable. Everybody would see it. And Nigerians are not expecting miracles from Asiwaju. They just want the basic necessities of life. If he works, you will see it. Go to other countries in Africa and see how they are making progress. Here, we are just wasting money. Today, it is City Boys, tomorrow, it is City Girls. The profligacy is horrendous. You asked me, is Asiwaju not my friend and brother and everything? Yes, he is. I will never deny him. He is a good man. He is a nice man. But that does not make him a good leader. He is a great politician who knows how to manoeuvre his way and everything, but that does not make him a good leader, because leadership is not about politics. Leadership is about managing people and resources. And I don’t think he has managed our resources well. That is the truth. Only a true friend will tell you the truth. Everybody goes to him because their lives depend on him. They need one thing or the other, they will tell him lies. When tomorrow comes, they will dump him. When Buhari was there, when he was in power, everybody, including Tinubu, was praising him. After he left, they started blaming him for handing over a useless government to them. That is what they will do to Asiwaju whenever he leaves. I don’t know when, but he will leave one day. And you will see the true colour of human beings then. They will say the most horrendous things about him. I have no doubt about that. That’s when you will hear that EFCC is chasing him, chasing his family, chasing everybody. Why don’t you end that rat race? Just end it. Don’t victimize anybody. How could Nasir El-Rufai have done all he did for Asiwaju and the guy today is being harassed, and they pretend they know nothing about it? It’s because he committed an offence. When they put his name among nominees for the cabinet, you know, he was supposed to be a minister. He went for screening, then, suddenly, they said he wasn’t cleared by the security people. Who is fooling who?

As the 2027 elections approach, more problems are emerging in the ADC. Some people are claiming ownership of the party. There are issues of recognition by INEC and so on. Are you people going to merge with another party or what?

Let me tell you, I’m very worried about media coverage in Nigeria, especially political coverage. Because the questions you are asking me, I believe, should not have been asked. There are more issues within APC than you have in ADC. But because APC is in power, you all tend to pamper them and focus all attention on the opposition. In my own generation, journalists were more for opposition, for the betterment of the country. But today I don’t know why. And I will now give you a reason I am saying what I am saying. APC has problems everywhere. If you go today to Benue State, they are fighting in the party. APC members are fighting all over. In fact, in Ogun State, just yesterday, they locked out Otunba Gbenga Daniel. They were having a stakeholders’ meeting or whatever they call it and they locked him out. A former governor. Is that not APC? In Lagos State, nobody can utter a whimper. In Lagos right now, nobody is secure in the party. Those who were hoping to contest, the former governor, Akin Ambode, we were hearing he wanted to come back. We were hearing that even Gbajabiamila wanted to contest. We were hearing all sorts of things. We were hearing that Alausa, Minister of Education, wanted to contest. The President just gave an instruction and, right now, nobody is able to pursue their own ambition.

In Ogun State, the Lagos style has crept in. Suddenly, the President has chosen one man for Ogun State. I have nothing against the man. He’s my friend. He’s my brother. I have nothing against him but that system is tyrannical, where one man takes every decision. They have issues. People are grumbling. People are fighting. Some people have even taken APC to court in some states. So, I dare INEC to derecognise APC leadership. Some people even took the chairman of APC to court. Have you heard anything about it? No. Every day, what I hear on television is, ‘ADC, you have too many internal problems.’ Who doesn’t have problems? In the case of ADC, one man, or, maximum, three men, from nowhere, said the party belonged to them. So, right now, in order to kill any political party in Nigeria, all it takes is to raise one disgruntled man and say he’s a faction, and journalists, too, will start addressing him as a faction. Where on earth can one man just stand up, because he’s angry, he’s disgruntled, he’s bitter, he’s enraged, and then you call him a faction, a factioner? PDP, factions. Labour Party, factions. ADC, factions. And that’s how journalists have connived, by using these descriptions and adjectives, to justify murder in Nigeria. When we all kill this democracy, history will remember all of us, because journalists are the ones who should educate everyone. When did one man become one faction in a party? And, we all promote it.

When they talk about zoning, and it’s the turn of the South, when, tell me, when in Nigeria was it written in the Constitution of Nigeria that it’s the turn of the South? Tell me, I’m asking you, when? You cannot answer. In eight years of the North, whether the President passes or not, whether we have better candidates from other regions or not, no, now the only qualification is where you come from. So, if a man fails the exam, you will promote him because he’s the only southerner in the race. He has spent four years, let him finish his remaining four years; why are we so stupid? Why are we so docile? Why are we so backward? If you don’t agree with that, then they say, one man is too old, it doesn’t matter if the President is older or not, or if he’s healthier or not, we should beg him not to contest. When did we get to that level where you discourage people from pursuing their own dreams in life? I’ve never seen anything like this.

Joe Biden was much older than Barack Obama, he served under Obama and, later, at his age, he was in his 80s, he was President of America. It’s the same thing today with Donald Trump. Trump was removed in 2020. He’s back today. Now, people say Atiku should not run, he’s old. When did age alone become a crime? Are we not all wishing to be old one day? If God has blessed you with good health, will you kill yourself? Something is wrong with us, some people are manipulating our brains and we’re all behaving like ‘mumu’. Let everybody run, that’s democracy. I don’t care who gets the ticket of ADC. I swear to God Almighty, I don’t care. But let everybody go and fight for it and then tell us your qualifications, why you think you are better than the other candidates. It’s as simple as that. It is not just about, oh, this is where I come from, oh, it is the turn of the South. It is stupidity of the highest order that we are displaying, and the whole world is so ashamed of us, that Nigeria has not gone beyond this level of ethnicity and religion.

Now that you have mentioned Atiku, it’s a known fact that your preferred candidate in ADC is Atiku…

There’s no question about that: he’s my preferred candidate. But I don’t care if someone else might beat him. I don’t care. That’s why I’m different. I like Atiku for his credentials, for the things I have seen, for the things that I now know about him, I have followed him since when he stepped down for Chief Moshood Abiola in 1993 in Jos. I have followed him with keen interest. I don’t see any politician at his level who is able to manage his own business without living fat off Nigeria. Atiku left power in 2007. Have you heard that he controls any state in Nigeria, where he can go and take money like some people are doing in some states? These are little, little things that we should appreciate. He is not desperate, you will not find a vault in front of his house, you will not hear that he’s planning to go and rig at INEC. Why don’t we appreciate good people in Nigeria? Must we waste and sacrifice all our good people on the altar of greed, nepotism and all that? What is his offence? In 2019, Atiku gave Peter Obi a national platform. Bloggers kicked against him, they fought him. Today, some people say they are supporting Obi, abusing, attacking and insulting the man every day. I can never support that. Never!

I don’t have more than one vote but when people do what I feel is beneath us, we speak up. The same way I am complaining about Tinubu today, about the dictatorship, about everything, if I see the same thing with Atiku in the future, I will talk.

Really?

Did I not talk when Buhari’s people were misbehaving? I was one of those who supported Buhari but, within two months, I tendered a public apology. I will never support tyrannical behaviour and say, because I like Atiku, Atiku can say anything and do anything. Not me. If you ask him, he will tell you that Dele respects himself. I respect myself. I don’t follow people blindly.

Some people say you’re with Atiku because of his money…

Does Atiku have one per cent of Tinubu s money? Why do we talk this way? Go and ask Atiku, if I’m one of those scavengers who will beg Atiku. What money has he got more than the federal government, more than the state governments, more than all the governors in Nigeria? So, because of Atiku s money, that’s why I’m following Atiku? (Laughs) Oh my God!

What’s your assessment of Tinubu’s fight against corruption in Nigeria?

The only thing I’m interested in about Tinubu is the condition of the people. Whether he is fighting corruption or not, when tomorrow comes, you will see the truth. Every government comes and they say they are fighting corruption, when, at the end of the day, the majority of the fight is about witch-hunt. I am not interested, please. I don’t follow pretence and I don’t enjoy it.  There’s nobody in Nigeria who does not know those who have unlimited or unrestricted access to the resources of Nigeria but they are untouchable. That’s fine.

Let’s talk about the insecurity confronting the nation. People are still dying every day. What’s your advice?

What advice can I give when all the governors are there? They just killed someone, a driver, around Edo State. Did Edo not promise to deliver three million votes to those who cannot protect lives and property? So, how do I talk about such things? Look, when we are ready, we will know what to do. We all know that we are not ready. Nigerians are not ready, especially our leaders who are desperate only to remain in power. They are not interested in anything else. How many people have you heard that Tinubu sacked in the military or in the police for incompetence?

What’s your take on Tinubu’s recent state visit to the UK?

In terms of sound and fury, it was okay. That’s what they wanted. They wanted people who would validate them and they got a willing partner in our people in England. That’s okay. Congratulations to them. But I don’t think that will change anything back home. They came back with more debts. Congratulations.

What do you mean?

Is that not what they reported? Did you not read about it?

It is said that Nigeria will gain a lot from that visit…

You can put out that you ‘think’ Nigeria will gain something. I told you they gained more debts. Is that not good news?

Culled from The Sun

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Xenophobia: Tinubu Orders Close Monitoring of Protests in South Africa

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President Bola Tinubuhas directed close monitoring of the ongoing anti-foreigner protests in South Africa, as the Federal government raises concerns over the safety of Nigerians and demands justice for victims of recent incidents.

The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Bianca Odumegwu-Ojukwu, disclosed this while presenting a situation report, noting that authorities are on alert ahead of another round of demonstrations scheduled for 4 to 8 May.

“There is heightened anxiety over the series of anti-foreigner protests. The priority at this time remains the safety of our citizens,” she said, adding that the President’s directive underscores Nigeria’s resolve to prevent further harm to its nationals.

Odumegwu-Ojukwu said images circulating across media platforms showing violence and xenophobic rhetoric have drawn global condemnation, describing the trend as “utterly condemnable and unacceptable.”

She, however, acknowledged that top South African officials, including President Cyril Ramaphosa, have publicly opposed xenophobia, extra-judicial killings and destruction of foreign-owned properties.

According to her, protests held between 27 and 29 April in Pretoria and Johannesburg were largely peaceful under heavy police presence, with no confirmed attacks on Nigerians during that period.

Despite this, she revealed that two Nigerians died earlier in separate incidents involving security personnel. Amamiro Chidiebere Emmanuel succumbed to injuries allegedly sustained after being beaten by members of the South African National Defence Force in Port Elizabeth, while Nnaemeka Matthew Andrew was reported dead following an encounter with metro police, with his body later found in a Pretoria mortuary.

“These incidents are utterly condemnable and unacceptable. Nigeria demands that justice be done,” the minister stated, noting that the Nigerian High Commission is closely tracking investigations.

She further confirmed that Nigeria has summoned South Africa’s High Commissioner in Abuja over the situation, as diplomatic engagements intensify to contain the fallout.

Odumegwu-Ojukwu added that Nigerian missions in South Africa are working with local authorities to minimise risks to citizens, while arrangements are ongoing for the voluntary repatriation of those willing to return home. About 130 Nigerians have so far registered for the exercise.

She also stressed Nigeria’s historical role in supporting South Africa’s liberation struggle, warning that recurring xenophobic attacks, often linked to political tensions, must be decisively addressed.

“Nigerian lives and businesses in South Africa must not continue to be put at risk,” she said, adding that both countries are engaging through existing frameworks, including an early warning mechanism, to prevent further escalation.

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How Regional Arithmetic Favours Atiku Abubakar in 2027

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By Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba

Nigeria’s 2027 presidential contest is shaping up around a potentially decisive regional dynamic, though it remains contingent on the widely speculated exit of Peter Obi from the ADC to the NDC. Should that realignment materialize, the race could feature two formidable Southern candidates, Bola Ahmed Tinubu from the South-West and Peter Obi from the South-East against a single Northern heavyweight, Atiku Abubakar from the North-East. Such a configuration would significantly reshape the electoral map and redefine the path to victory.

Drawing inspiration from the wisdom and uncommon analytical depth of the former presidential candidate Chief Dele Momodu, it is worth recalling how he accurately predicted the outcome of the 2015 Nigerian presidential election, breaking it down zone-by-zone and state-by-state with remarkable precision. His October 2014 piece, “Buhari versus Jonathan: In Search of a Mathematician,” remains a testament to strategic political forecasting. While I may not claim such mathematical exactness, I will make a clear and reasoned case that the most viable path to defeating Tinubu in 2027 lies in rallying behind Atiku Abubakar.

President Tinubu’s post-2023 strategy appears to have shifted after an early realization that his relationship with the North had weakened, with growing discontent and opposition forces he could neither easily contain nor ignore. In response, he seems to have turned decisively toward consolidating the South, strengthening ties in the South-South, engaging political actors in the South-East, and reinforcing his natural base in the South-West in a bid to secure that region as a unified stronghold. This creates the impression that the South may lean toward continuity. However, should Peter Obi contest independently, that cohesion fractures. The Southern vote would likely split between Tinubu and Obi, opening space for Atiku Abubakar to gain footholds, especially if he secures a strategic running mate from the region.

In contrast, the North presents a different and potentially decisive equation. There is a growing perception across the region that the political moment favors consolidation behind Atiku Abubakar more than ever before. Several factors are often cited in this regard. First is the belief among many Northern voters that the current administration has exhibited ethnic bias in appointments and governance. Second is the widespread perception of imbalance in policy direction and project distribution, with flagship initiatives such as the Lagos-Calabar coastal highway seen by many as disproportionately favoring the South-West. Third, the religious sentiment that played a role in the 2023 elections appears to be losing its mobilizing power, with many voters signaling a shift away from identity-based considerations toward broader governance concerns.

Additionally, persistent insecurity and underdevelopment in many parts of the North continue to shape political expectations, with many citizens prioritizing leadership they believe can directly address these challenges. Finally, Atiku’s recent positioning of 2027 as his final presidential bid, alongside renewed emphasis on his policy proposals, appears to be resonating with the significant segments of the Northern electorate. Taken together, these dynamics suggest that Atiku is strongly positioned to secure a more unified and possibly expanded Northern mandate than in previous cycles.

The implication is straightforward: a divided South versus a relatively unified North could tilt the balance. In such a scenario, Atiku’s path to victory becomes more viable, not despite Obi’s participation, but partly because of it. The 2027 election, therefore, may be less about religious alignments, as seen in 2023, and more about regional calculations.

While outcomes remain uncertain, this emerging structure suggests that the opposition’s most realistic chance against an incumbent lies in leveraging regional arithmetic effectively and in that equation, Atiku Abubakar appears strategically advantaged…

Dr. Sani Sa’idu Baba writes from Kano, and can be reached via drssbaba@yahoo.com

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